Potential for Strong Storms Today & Tomorrow (East Central)

 

Very Early Morning Rainstorm Moving in on May 5, 2017

TODAY:  As of 'very early' this morning, prior to sunrise, satellite interpretation indicates a large 'outflow boundary' emanating across North Florida pressing southward as a result of heavier rainfall and storm activity that had occurred over parts of Southern Alabama and Georgia yesterday/last night. (see image below)

This boundary will likely become indistinguishable by mid morning but nonetheless the 'energies' involved with it could well continue unrealized until late today / early this evening.

Temperatures aloft are expected to cool a few degrees very late this afternoon after a full day of insolation, resulting in ample instability (Convective Available Potential Energy) with some bulk shear (wind shear aloft) involved mainly from a Melbourne to Tampa line northward.

 Expect that this boundary will be will south of I-4 by late today as (meanwhile) the West Coast Sea breeze - which will be the dominant sea breeze today as steering for storms is from west to east (generally speaking)- meets up to the East Coast Sea Breeze. The West Coast/East Coast sea breeze collision as such seems most likely to occur east of  the spine of the state, effectually (for storms) along a line from near Sanford southward toward Yeehaw Junction (southern Osceola County).

All said and done, as of early this morning at least, it appears we could see a strong storm or two mainly across 'anywhere Brevard County toward Indian River County'. More 'isolated' activity could also occur mainly as a result of outflows from said 'possible storms' even later and further south toward Ft Pierce along a by then, 'retired Lake Okeechobee Breeze'.

The 'most likely time for storms to form and make impacts in regard to this particularly cited activity' is from around 6pm - 9pm across far Southeast Volusia County, western Brevard County toward the immediate coast (eventually), later then for perhaps far NE Okeechobee County toward interior Indian River to St Lucie Counties . Otherwise, another warm day in store.

THURSDAY: An actual frontal boundary will be working south of 1-10 ..into North Central Florida by late in the day. There is a RISK (marginal) of Severe Category storms (mainly due to wind) in much the same areas as noted in the graphic shown above in this blog post once again . Will not bother going into details for Thursday in this post as much will be revealed after today is through in regard to where any lingering boundaries after today's storms might eventually be the prime focus of storm activity tomorrow.

Again, for today it appears the main player for today is the outflow boundary from the north combined with the merger of the West and East coast Sea breezes which will provide low level lift along with a full day of insolation and mounting instability coupled with lowering upper level temperatures (which might be key). Of course, there is the chance all we'll see is 'generic' showers and some lightning, but given consistency now in several model runs of varying model guidance will go with the potentially strong to near severe early this evening for far eastern sections of East Central Florida.