"It's Coming!" - True Summer to Arrive "On Schedule"

 

The near 'seemingly drought like' conditions much of the state is in right now is nothing really unusual, as every year there is the 'dry before the rains comes' state of affairs. This year it is most pronounced, though large spread rainfalls that occurred in April have thankfully put the kibosh (to some degree) on the potential that would otherwise be for an outbreak of more widespread brush fires.

For this post, only to highlight that continued dry and warmer than usual (mainly inland) will prevail into Saturday, and with the lower dew points that are experienced in the summer this  'heat' is comparatively a 'dry heat' and does not have that 'feels like much more' to it. 

Heat indices are far from 'soaring' in other words, and this is all due to the lower dew point temperatures. All that is to change  more or less, come Sunday into Monday or there so .

Who's watching the Clock anyway? After all, the first day of 'Official Summer' at least 'Meteorologically' is June 1 (the astronomical start is when the Sun passes over the Tropic of Cancer around June 21), but from a  Meteorological perspective in the northern hemisphere, Summer begins on JUNE 1.

Now, from a Florida perspective (at least the bloggers one) it begins when we have at least 7 continuous days of dew point temperatures at or above 70F which is what leads to the next summer norm - the 'wet season' / or 'summer' begins.

 We have had days in some instances where the sea breezes met, but due to lower dew points and/or length of day time heating the sea breeze collisions would amount to nothing more than a cloud deck for the most part. Now we have longer days and the necessary greater moisture in the lower levels set to move in from the tropics to produce more clouds (cumulus) and thunderstorms during sea and lake breeze mergers (hence, the 'wet season').

The moisture is first forecast to move in more closely associated to a decaying frontal boundary from the north  so that by late Saturday afternoon we might see increased cloud cover during the mid to late day, but it is Sunday as the front gets across Central that we could see a storm or two (possibly strong) 'somewhere over Central Florida'.  

The True Higher Dew points from that day onward though will be ushered northward as well from the south ahead and along this boundary, and be initially prominent along the Florida East Coast MONDAY, MAY 31 morning (after the pretty good chance of rain/storms on Sunday). Inland dewpoints might not quite hit and sustain that magic 70F  -- but it won't be long as we move into the first two weeks of June 2021.

In Fact, the Long Range GFS model shows once the dew point reaches 70F on that Monday morning, it does not once go below that reading from that point onward. Granted, it 's only a forecast model but the trend is on for 'The Wet Season"  (and the True Florida-like Summer weather) to be moving in.

In regard to Tropical Weather, this also means an increasing risk of Tropical Storm development  ...of which any threat at this time of year would be most generally on the "Gulf Side" rather than the Atlantic, at least as far as a 'direct and immediate threat' to a  Florida Coast line as far as storm surge is concerned.