Possibility of Strong Storms Today East Central as Beryl Meanders

See graphic text. Otherwise, Beryl is losing storm status today with most Tropical Storm related reports coming from Duval County in the JAX area last night. The storm is drifting toward the W-WNW since early day, and guidance shows similar motion toward sunset. See the Hurricane Center website for details. 

Sampling of observations on Beryl around 3AM:

MAYPORT NAS    LGT RAIN  73  68  84 SE32G48   29.54R  
JACKSONVILLE   CLOUDY    73  72  96 E23G35    29.51R FOG  
JAX NAS        CLOUDY    75  72  90 SE9       29.46R  
JAX CRAIG      CLOUDY    73  71  93 SE21G31   29.50R  
JAX CECIL      RAIN      72  72 100 NW14G24   29.45F VSB 1

29.45 Inches of Mercury into Millibars 

Result: 997.28, although not the lowest pressure for the storm

  I have no idea how high up these mesonet towers are: 

1110 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 W MAYPORT             30.38N 81.48W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED FROM THE NNE AT 47 MPH WITH  
            GUSTS TO 62 MPH.

1037 PM     TROPICAL STORM   6 NNW MANDARIN          30.23N 81.68W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   ASOS  
  
            A 65 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL  
            AIR STATION.

  
0920 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NW FORT CAROLINE      30.43N 81.53W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA  
  
            LOCAL TV STATION REPORTS ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HECKSHER  
            DRIVE.

  
1035 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 N MAYPORT             30.40N 81.41W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WERE  
            RECORDED AT HUGUENOT PARK

OTHERWISE: As noted in the title, strong to potentially briefly severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly from Volusia County and South as noted in the graphic. 

Winds along the coast are expected to become more southerly to side shore or nearly so, which will aid in low level helicity east of I-95. Additionally, there is a chance of some better low level wind shear  (albeit very weak) north of MLB toward DAB along the southern fringes of Beryl's mean circulation pattern as well as a CAPE (convective instability) gradient setting up near the Brevard/Volusia Line or a bit further north right at those cross-hairs. 


Thus, where ever that gradient sets up could be where at least one option for a strong/severe storm, perhaps two with one even further north than DAB. The other favored area would be along the Lake Shadow Gradient which should set up near South Brevard to Vero Beach zone. A stronger storm with hail could set up in Western or Central Dade/Broward Area as well.

There is a chance of a brief landspout tornado or waterspout mainly east of I-95 or a waterspout offshore Brevard or Southern Volusia, and a funnel cloud could also be observed from northeastern Osceola County to the coast as far south as Palm Bay. Hail is also possible , potentially near severe category size of 1 inch..but if so, very very isolated as today's unfolding will be in any case.

Activity expected to commence after the morning convective temperature of 83F is broken, thus, could be as soon as 1:30pm - 2:30pm and to continue in various locations and various times noted in the image above through sunset with one or two storms near or approaching the coast after 6pm, most likely south of MLB toward Sebastian and Vero Beach.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: With 'Beryl remains' lifting toward the ENE out and away cloud cover will be appeased, and more statewide chances of storms both days, with strongest activity east 1/2 of state (in general). Locations and degree of strength of storms each day will be as always in question. The 

storm could begin to interact with the Atlantic on Wednesday and begin to 

emerge offshore the coast of North Carolina, but by that time would be 

becoming Extra-Tropical.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Chances are a weak disturbance will eject northward from Western of Central Cuba as is being noted which will impact coastal areas of far south Florida, but details, if even so, remain too sketchy to elaborate upon this morning given the time between now and then, anything could 

change. Out of interests sake, this day could be a big severe weather makes for much of Northern Alabama and Georgia northward to the eastern Great 

Lakes region and eastward to Southern Pennsylvania...(Friday time frame) 

EVENTUALLY: A frontal boundary and lowering atmospheric moisture by 

Sunday or Monday state wide (possibly) with a more westerly flow, the ridge axis at the mid levels being near the Florida straits, could set up for that hot spell mentioned a few posts ago early next week.