Ayy Caramba, "Bret"s Getting "Bart-ed"

The Devious, underhanded, clever, and deviant Tropical Storm Bret is
getting his crew cut, or we should say, a 'good shearing' early this afternoon.
He has created nothing but grief for some parts of Florida that are still being impacted by drought
by cutting off the deep moisture supply to all by South Florida, and even that is going on the wane to some degree today. Some of the cirrus being stripped off the top of the storm from upper level winds has was over Eastern Florida earlier today...but seems to have gone on the wane the past couple of hours.

BRET: The latest on the storm per the NHC (National Hurricane Center reads:

 "DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OFDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A GENEROUS ESTIMATE.

(I'd say, "Eat my Shorts").

SOME HISTORY: Bret formed when there was a break in a trough axis which was running across the 
Panhandle for several days, if you were watching all the rain up there last 
week. The low that was near Panama City is now  near Louisiana. The 
break in that trough is obvious here now with northerly winds and dry air (over 
most but South Florida) where high pressure broke through from the north...the other part of the 

trough became Bret  which is now  pulling off to the NE..(aka, Bart is Splitting the Scene). 

Once that 'trough' in the mid levels (which eastern Florida is still in as well as Bret)  pulls far enough away the Atlantic ridge axis which is our summer time guiding principle ...which had completely 

dropped out of the picture...will  be able to move back in again..which is what is going to happen 
during the next 48 hours...but then the moisture over South Florida has to be filtered back 
north..and that will take another day or two..unfortunately, the trough (and 
Bret)..pulling away is also taking all of that moisture that was around here 
with it, or nearly so..so we will be left with less storm coverage with lower precipitable 
water air ...but enough to squeeze out storms with sea breeze convergences..in days ahead.

This chart shows the precipitable water available in the atmosphere by the contours (PWAT). We see only 1.3 inches in West Central Florida but 1.7 - 2.0" over far South Florida. Pure and simple, this is where any thunder can occur today where there is a sea breeze merger ...although that might be hard pressed to find given the winds. If it is to occur it will be later today. Temperatures aloft are actually pretty cool , so a stronger storm or two like yesterday is possible. The area over East Central is  an area of mid-level moisture convergence, but it is very dry about 10,000 ft. Anything to form here will only be an isolated rain shower, with most likely only larger cumulus type clouds.

TODAY: Showers and some thunder far South Florida toward the Keys. Maybe a few light showers East Central as well due to moisture convergence at the mid levels and a little bit of lift provided by weak speed shear from the ENE just above the surface. Any showers will be brief and isolated.

TOMORROW: Bret will pull further away and moisture levels will attempt to creep back northward. 

The NAM is much more aggressive than the more reliable GFS (Which has been the most reliable for several weeks now)...so will hedge with the GFS, which leaves us with showers/thunder along SE Florida possibly reaching as far north as SE Osceola County toward extreme SW Brevard...but likely a bit further south than that.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Each day moisture will work further north as the Atlantic ridge builds in 

across South Central Florida. This will push the better rain chances over South Florida further toward the west..but further north as well..to include all of South Central Florida toward the Beach Line..possibly as far north as I-4 on Saturday or Sunday. Storms will remain isolated, although there could be a period from 5)30pm toward 7:00pm that there will be a number of storms primarily lined up 

along and west of the east coast seabreeze which should be just along or west of I-95. Storm debris could wash off to the east coast of the Space and Treasure Coasts as storms dissipate, although on one of these days at least it is possible they might actually reach US1 or maybe even A1A.

BEYOND: There are two schools of thought heading toward next week. 1) Ridge axis remains somewhere between South Central to Dead Central Florida with diurnal, sea/lake breeze thunderstorms in the interior  2) A healthy tropical wave well east in the Atlantic holds its own and relocates the 

ridge axis well to the north of Central Florida. This places the entire state in a more easterly flow...

with showers...time will tell as approach the end of the weekend. We are getting closer to the 

true Tropical Season.

Who knows, in weeks or months ahead, Bart...er Bret, could be followed by:

HURRICANE HOMER!!!!