 |
Strong Storm Stretches Offshore the Cape as viewed from Cape Canaveral (5/5/21) |
RECAP: As was expected, there was a marginal risk of a 'severe' category storm yesterday -- there was one such observable storm over the Northern Cape Region of Playalinda Beach on an 'observation tower', albeit those winds were a bit above ground. Regardless - it qualified. Otherwise, no qualifiable severe conditions were observed elsewhere or at least none were reported by anyone.
TODAY: Today looks to have a bit more going for it to support 'severe CAT' weather over and above yesterday - at least as of mid-morning.
One big difference today from yesterday - the mid-upper level temperatures per the RAP short term model are to lower significantly as we enter into early afternoon.
As such, lower to mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy (along with increasing instability) coupling that with where the East Coast Sea Breeze sets up (which will be VERY close to the coast, possibly no further inland than US1) to meet up with the West Coast Sea breeze - -- and 'assuming' we get amply prolonged insolation (near unrestricted heating)...the stage could be set for a SUDDEN explosive storm or two very close to the beaches (or just off shore) after the 2-3pm time frame.
Inhibiting factors, 'especially near to north of I-4, would be greater cloud coverage. Any larger area experiencing prolonged cloud cover might be able to be ruled out for a strong storm today (or any storm for that matter).
Regardless, though there could be a strong storm across the North Half of Volusia, expecting the greater risk (because the potential looks better) to be further south -- the region I'm seeing as of this hour for having the most potential for a severe category storm (possibly even due to Hail Size) would be from near Sanford - Titusville southward to South Melbourne Beach -- basically anywhere in Brevard (nearly) along and east of US1 and as far inland as Sanford or so.
Much , however, assumes we even get an east coast sea breeze !
Otherwise, there is still a risk of strong to severe either way -- due to the colder air aloft coming in nearly perfectly in sync with the peak heating hours of the day.
The factor that would increase the severe potential even more would be if the west coast sea breeze were to surprisingly just 'take off to the east' by early afternoon and meet the east coast one in perfect timing with the upper level features.
This does seem to be yet possibly (however (!)) ...so any delay in storm onset (especially south of I4)toward the 4-5PM time frame might mean a greater chance of a quick but severe category storm.
BEYOND: The front will pass down the state tonight and into Central Florida in the pre-dawn hours. It is expected to be entering South Central Florida shortly after sunrise - as such, rain chances go to zero by early or mid morning across that area. Still warm but much drier, with highs mostly in the mid-upper 80Fs .
SATURDAY: Much cooler Friday night to Saturday morning. This might be our last shot at most of the areas (especially east of I95) of getting below 70F this season - or close to the last chance.
Beaches south of The Cape might still be able to tweak out a 70F reading Saturday morning as winds might just start to gain an on-shore component and now the ocean temperature is up to 80F ... ! It's really risen the past two week.
MOTHER'S DAY: This day looks right around 'normal' across the boards temperature and rain chances wise. The better chance of any showers at all this day will be across South Florida but the warming trend will be beginning for a much warmer, and a bit wetter week ahead.
LONG RANGE: We might be in for a bit more of an active period coming mid-late week (next week) for several days. The signals are there in the GFS that that will be the case, at least for shower/thunderstorm activity - possibly over-night off shore -- all in all - it's NOT summer yet moisture wise. The Deep Moisture we see from the Tropics is in no way shown to be arriving just yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment