(Image: KSC (XMR) Sounding reveals lots in moisture and little in winds)Not surprisingly, today has started out like many mornings lately...cloudy. Rain is persisting across all of the south half of Brevard though as of the 8am hour. This area extends west to the Gulf Coast where a much larger area of rain and embedded thunderstorms persists over the Eastern Gulf.
In the broad scheme of things nothing much has changed. At the surface it appears that a low level convergence band set up right where the east/west line of rain exists...but in the mid and upper levels our remnant trough axis exists further north from the Florida Big Bend on the West Coast to just south of St. Augustine on the East Coast. It appears this axis will remain in place through the majority of the day light hours today.
As has been the case for the past several days, extensive cloud cover will inhibit appreciable day time heating; thus, thunderstorm chances are limited without the presence of stronger low level/surface boundaries which are created near the larger bodies of water when we do have sunshine/heating. Soundings from KSC (XMR) and Tampa show that PWAT values continue at 2.00" + inches averaged throughout the column...and winds at the mid level are very light from a westerly component, but only through a very shallow layer at best. For the most part, the winds aloft are close to non-revealing at best.
TODAY: As has been the case for several days now, it is close to impossible to determine where rain will eventually will fall once the day gets going. Believe the rain across South Brevard and west of there through Osceola, Polk, and Hillsborough Counties will eventually wane through late morning. Cloud debris as a result of these rains as well as from the more extensive/stronger activity over the eastern Gulf will again keep all of us under a blanket of clouds as we work into the early afternoon hours at least. Persistence would dictate that the general pattern of continued cloudiness will probably exist through the remainder of the day with such a moisture laden environment.
Thus, like the past few days, the areas across East Central Florida most likely to receive additional rain will be contingent upon minor ripples running through the mid-layers, none of which are detectable at this time. Probably the region to end up getting any respectable storms today will be way south of here toward West Palm Beach - Southern Lake Okeechobee area - Miami (where cloud cover is currently less extensive) , and then points toward Ft. Meyers up toward Tampa on the West Coast (closer to the Gulf activity), with weaker but nonetheless wet conditions developing further north along the East Coast as far as the Brevard/Volusia County line.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: For now, just clumping this entire period together as it currently appears that overall atmospheric moisture reduction (PWAT) will make an honest effort to begin as soon as midnight tonight across the Central Portion of the East Florida. Not going to elaborate on the many interesting things that will be going on to instigate the weather change, but in a very general sense strong high pressure will be pushing south across coastal North Carolina and the mid-level boundary will get pushed well south toward the keys and eventually thin out to the level of non-existence. Can't say the same for points further south though...not for at least one more day since they will still have this boundary as a player for the atmosphere to work with. By Tuesday mid-level flow from the east should begin up this way which will push any remaining shower activity toward the west coast. It currently does not appear that there will be a threat of shower activity to come in off the Atlantic after this transition has completed...so we could actually end up being totally dry east of I-95 and probably a much larger area than that after mid-day Tuesday until late Friday or Saturday.
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