(Images: The Hunger or Wolf Moon last night. FB users - click on link to see all photos)
A cold front extending from the central panhandle region extends into the Gulf of Mexico as of 10am. Rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms accompany this boundary as well as in advance of it. Some anvil tops from the larger widely spread lightning producers over the Gulf are being spread across Central Florida well in advance of its arrival in combination with a variety of mid-level cloudiness being advected in from the SW and west. The front will pass across East Central Florida shortly before midnight (areas to the north and west at an earlier time..to the south..later).
TODAY: Cloudy and somewhat breezy. The high temperature will be held at bay into the mid 70s (tops) due to the cloud cover which will likely be even thicker during the normal times of peak heating along with evaporative cooling of the air at the lowest levels from any rain trying to fall from these clouds. The latest sounding from KSC supports a S-SW wind around 12mph with gusts as high as 30mph over open land/water areas...but generally gusting in the 18-25mph range from the south and SSW all day. The heavier showers are now mainly limited to the area over the warmer waters of the Loop current off Florida's west coast. Once these move over cooler waters their intensity will likely diminish in 'intensity'. The PWATS (preciptable water values) are still below 1" locally (based on KSC's Sounding),...and without a good moist column the whole way up...and yet drier air further south being advected in from the south at the mid-levels (as evidenced from Miami's sounding) we will be hard pressed to actually see rain reach the ground running roughly east of a line from just south of Daytona to between Orlando and the beaches...for the most part..east of I-95 for the majority of the day.
Should rain reach extreme east central Florida..it will be after 6pm in the form of light, stratiform rain with accumulations less than 1/4".
TONIGHT: The front will actually pass through Brevard in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. Obviously, it will pass the areas further north and west earlier as that is the direction it is coming from. Temperatures may eventually drop down to the low 50s/mid-40s further west and north and into the mid-upper 50s in the more immediate area.
SUNDAY: Sunday may very well be the coolest of days we'll have for the entire week ahead. But considering what we've grown somewhat accustomed to..it will be of no impact. Low in the mid 50s with a high in the mid 60s. Skies will likely start out mostly cloudy but begin to break up by late morning to early afternoon. The front will continue its south bound journey to the frontal graveyard (the Florida Straits)...by late Sunday while its most southern/western tail will linger just west and south of the keys. In the meantime, high pressure will quickly skirt across Dixie. A brief period of NW-N winds for the majority of this day will be quickly replaced by NE winds by evening under clearing skies with the cooler temps as alluded to.
MONDAY: Our next weather maker will already be making plans for an impact on South and Central Florida. The lingering tail end will eventual coalesce into a weak surface low. A weak, appendant warm front will run up the peninsula quickly swinging those NE winds the whole way around to SE-S by day's end. The air mass will have had little time to dry out...and thus won't have any problem recouping whatever moisture will have been displaced. The result will be increasing clouds again from south to north...with an increased chance of rain late Monday into Tuesday. Wind fields actually look pretty impressive for a brief window of opportunity (of thunderstorms)...but the atmosphere will likely remain to thermodynamically stable to generate anything more than isentropic lift along this warm front...hence cloudy conditions and a stratiform rain could very well be a big player over night Monday into Tuesday.
TUESDAY: At this time it looks like Tuesday will be totally cloudy with a good chance of light-moderate intensity rain showers. Temperatures to remain in the low to mid 70s due to the cloud cover and this potential of rain with SW-W winds in the 10-20 mh range.
WEDNESDAY: Gradual abatement of the rain but continued cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy as yet another system begins to take shape and approach the area for later in the week. Might have to watch for coastal spits of rain too...but we have several days to monitor for that potential.
This latest system toward the end of the week may need to be watched carefully! There are hints that some form of severe weather with this one could materialize. Obviously being as far out as that is from now...there's nothing remotely close to clear cut on any such evolution..but it will continue to be watched as the week progresses to see if such sort of development continues to appear as probable.
IN SUMMARY: Highs all week will be in the low-mid 70s (except Monday when it will be in the mid 60s. Lows will remain in the mid-upper 50s away from the coast, whereas the immediate coast might never drop below 63 (except for Monday). It will be a somewhat interesting week to be monitoring all of these developments...if for no other reason than it beats forecasting and/or observe nothing other than a blue, dry sky (from a meteorlogical perspective). Granted, the weather this entire week will not be all so great for the sun worshipper (hey..I worship the sun too..although from some of these writings one might not think so). Bring on summer..sun most of the day..followed by a storm. The best of both worlds.
Reminder: This discussion is generated from a humble apartment and is not the official forecast as provided through the National Weather Service located in Melbourne. We are concluding Florida's Official Severe Weather Awareness Week today...not because the threat is over. On the contrary, it's strategically timed so that we have ample time to prepare for any upcoming severe weather in the coming weeks and months ahead! Historically, the most significant tornado outbreaks occur in Florida during El Nino years...specifically during the last two El Nino events. February and March are still to come...be prepared NOW. Highly recommended is a Weather Radio. I got mine at Publix of all places. But do have one, especially one with the S.A.M.E. alert feature.
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