Showers / Isolated Thunder (Mainly South) Today

Weak pseudo-low circulation Over The Glades area to remain fixed in this region today before becoming diffuse later today into this evening. Although some brief  rumbles have occurred in the South already, it appears that not much more, other than an isolated incident is likely to occur today. Otherwise, further north we see a dashed orange for a conditional chance with conditional shower chances yet further north. See below for details.

TODAY: Weak low pressure over the South coupled with equally weak to moderate atmospheric thermal instability in the absence of sufficient surface boundaries has generated some showers and thunder South. Further north, instability will be lacking north of 528, but some moisture could result in a few showers although clouds only seems will be the prevalent modus operandi .

An impulse in the mid-level flow later today or early evening could bring showers or thunder (as shown in the dashed orange and northward extent of the green)...but those chances are conditional upon whether this impulse will actually manifest as indicated on model guidance or is merely a figment of model out put. Yet further north, instability is meager (per latest data), despite the clouds which can be seen on visible satellite imagery, it would seem unlikely that much beyond a quick shower at best will occur north of I-4, except in the Ormond Beach toward Jax area in from the coast.  There is almost zero convective inhibition in place over the state today. What this implies is that the any convective available potential energy (CAPE) will not be inhibited from escaping into the atmosphere, and thus will not be able to build up to result in thunderstorms without respectable low level boundaries or mid-upper level triggers in place despite that cold air aloft is in place, as noted yesterday.  Therefore, and again, late afternoon and early evening activity is 'conditional' upon the impulse (disturbance) being realized.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winds could remain as is today through Saturday into Sunday and be perhaps a bit stronger one or both days from the ESE-SE as high pressure moves off the U.S. SE Coast and into the  SW Atlantic toward Bermuda. Although a few light showers could occur at any given point in time, the prevalent condition appears will simply be rather comfortable/seasonal temperatures with some periods of greater cloud cover, but nothing worth noting at this point in time.


Next Chance of Broader Coverage of Measurable Rainfall? : Appears in the Late Wednesday and Thursday time frame.