(remember what that is in the above photo?)Today's weather along the East Central Florida Coastline this morning can easily be summed up as sunny and dry. Morning sounding came in dry at all levels except at the very lowest and a thin sliver in the mid-levels. The NAM model picked up on this trend, and as of this writing, was the only to have done so. Therefore, most of the day's forecast is hinged upon both that and latest water vapor / visible satellite imagery...speaking of which, water vapor does indeed show the area in a 'dry slot'...except maybe a few low Cumulus clouds this afternoon and some high cirrus with light-moderate onshore easterly winds this afternoon. Don't expect much anywhere in the area, including inland.
About the only place that looks like it could receive some rain today is along the immediate west and southwest Florida Coast from Tampa South. The upper air data from that area came in much more moist and the NAM picked up on that as well. It does show shower/storm activity in that area to commence after 2pm into the evening.
In fact, the NAM in the longer term continues to support this scenario for both Monday and Tuesday for the most part. Only exception being that the SE Florida Coast might see a slight increase in moisture late Monday with, I dare hesitate to say, "remnant" Fred other than giving whatever it is a name. Might as well starting naming every thunderstorm is about how relevant it is, but tropical discussion lovers would put a high nose up to such degradation of their adored creatures (I am a tropical weather forecasting lover myself, but let's face reality folks :-)
As always in such a flow pattern, with no outlying data resources available upstream in an easterly flow regime, changes to this pattern are most certainly possible within any given 12 hour time frame especially along the east coast.
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