Cloudy and Drippy, With Some Thunder in Select Areas

Latest Visible satellite image  shows densest cloud cover Central moving along the Magic Dividing Line from Tampa to the Magic Kingdom to Cape Canaveral along the Beach Line. SE Florida is in a lull, but for how long?

TODAY: As expected , our big influx of moisture has "mainly" resulted in cloudy skies for most areas with not much in the rain gauges except in a few locations far south Florida early on and at the west coast. Model guidance has been every which way and loose with where the rain will fall and lightning and thunder will crash on each run, varying between them. The greatest consistency has been somewhere across Central Though, it has just been a matter of north central vs. South Central. Perhaps it is dead Central as is now occurring. Suspect though that if there is to be any heavier activity toward the east side of the state today, it will not be until after 2:30pm, and more likely after 4-5pm.  ..rain chances continue until shortly after sunset or 8pm.


Further South, another quandary. Note that rain has ended in this region for the time being. Latest infrared (Enhanced) and enhanced water vapor imagery indeed shows thunderstorm tops with deep convection toward the lower left of this image above, but the activity is making no northward progress in the past 3 hours, and seems to be drifting eastward rather than lifting north, unable to be  picked up by the approaching upper level trough. If this activity is picked up later on it could impact areas from SW Florida toward Lake Okeechobee to Palm Beach and north toward The Cape on the east side... or..further south..OR..it does not get picked up at all.  What comes to mind is several model runs yesterday showed SE Florida never seeing any more rain or little of it from this time forward today. So far, that is what has begun to happen.   I've also noted that the HRRR model is running way fast by several hours, for by now thunderstorms should be marching in on the area. but cloud tops and hence deep convection is warming/waning as it approaches shore.  Either way, the last of the rain should be moving off shore east central around midnight and far South Florida as late as 2AM or so.


SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Saturday could dawn nearly partly cloudy, and remain so most of the day with no rain other than perhaps far south Florida near the Keys into Dade and peninsular Collier Counties. An  errant shower or two with perhaps some thunder moving offshore possible North Central east side between Cocoa Beach to Ormond Beach very late toward sunset. Otherwise, temperatures running the 'around 90F' gamut.


MONDAY-TUESDAY: Generally dry for extended purposes and possibly HOT east coast with highs at the beaches on Monday and/or Tuesday possibly reaching the upper 90Fs. Guidance not showing values nearly that high as far as I know, but if winds do persist from the  NW-WNW as shown with no rain..this trajectory comes off of all land mass. There is a chance of thunder I believe though from The Cape and north along the east coast, but in concern for Wednesday -Friday that chance is close to negligible if at all , as it is still a bit uncertain timing wise.  


Meanwhile, the forecast seems to imply quite the Omega Block setting up in the middle of the country with a ridge right up the center of the country and troughs on both coasts  leaving Florida with NW steering flow and westerly winds at least through early-mid afternoon and hot temps. Typically, it is my experience that the hottest time of year if there is going to be one for the East Coast is the last week of May through the first 2 weeks of June during the transition into the Wet Season. A NW flow aloft is not a 'wet season' regime, so until the Omega Block now being advertised breaks down, we will not be in the wet season yet (not to say it still cannot rain and thunder, for in NW flow storms can lack but be all the stronger). Believe that once the Omega Block breaks down, with a few days to a week of adjustments, that puts us into the Wet Season..and that could be a big change when it does occur. Watching the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to western Caribbean.

Omega Happy Block with lows near each coast to persist
 through he first week of June