1:20pm Update

Graphic for latest situation.

 

 

Early Start to Rains Will Likely Mean an Early End To Them Some Locationss

SPURIOUS QUICK MARK UP MADE AT 8AM ALREADY INVALID

TODAY: Tropical Storm Arlene in the SW Gulf will likely meander W to WSW toward the Mexican Coast into Thursday. Meanwhile, as the system has wrapped up much of the moisture that was washing over Florida was pulled into it; however, there remains a large pocket of moisture over Florida that is being resupplied from the South. The above image shows what I was expecting to occur during the course of the day.  This is no longer valid considering the activity that has already begun.

It appears that a mid-level trough axis lies just offshore the Cape Area with SW Florida south of the axis. Showers offshore and back-building toward the east coast. This activity should peak out during the course of the late morning toward early noon, leaving a large area of light rain and/or extensive cloudiness. Other storms other than those to form over Central and South Central will form over portions of North Central. These are expected to be of more isolated nature. Regardless, the main threat from this activity will be a brief period of lightning and heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile. other activity is developing along the NW Coast and is pressing east to east-northeast. Much of this activity might start to dwindle as clouds from the north run over the developing storms. In essence, today will be marked by short lived storms with low cloud bases with a movement toward the NW. The biggest impact today will be heavy rains in select locations. with lightning present and most prolific in nature after from 2-5pm.

Weather South Florida can recover from the clouds and anvil flow they will likely be under from storms further north (toward that red area early)...is yet to be determined, although models have indicated this area will recover.  Otherwise, it is yet another day of the same old story, just a different version. The saga is expected to continue on Thursday with yet another day of second guessing this very unpredictable, moisture laden medley of "moisture soup".

FRIDAY: By Friday, the indirect affects of the the tropical system should have dwindled but with plentiful moisture remaining over the state. Based on latest guidance, strong thunderstorms could occur over a broad expanse of Central Florida if storms wait until at least early afternoon to form. But, given the latest tredns, this too could change.

BEYOND: Model guidance has indicated a shift in the pattern by late Friday or Saturday but I'm not fully sold. Some other models are showing a return to a more normal, summer like pattern...whereas others indicate a much drier pattern with SE winds prevailing both at the surface and aloft. Should that pattern indeed occur, we could be in for a more prolonged dry period for at least 3-4 days.