Another Day of If-Casting

Morning satellite imagery shows a mesoscale convective system (deep convection, organized ) maintaining itself for now over the Southeast Gulf as shown by red area. Latest ECMWF/NAM/RAP models all show the energy associated with the cluster to begin to lift ENE-NE day, and break apart. Any impacts from the wind energy should be, or could be Potentially (key word) most realized north 1/2 of state from early afternoon through late night tonight

TODAY: Will cut this post brief as noted by the subject line, way too many IFs involved to definitize or even rationalize where, when, or  how convection (storms) will initiate today. The two key areas would be associated with the remnants of an MCS over the Gulf as shown, and near East Central where greatest mid level Bulk shear has been continuously forecast to exist toward from just NE of Lake Okeechobee toward the area in Orange. Model guidance is all over the place on precipitation fields, as they weigh in on a different balance of weights and measures to determine the results, sort of like model politicking. Most seem to agree on little action just about anywhere truly to speak of in terms of the precipitation fields (rain) today, highlighting cloudy skies as a result.


Two severe warned storms over South to portions of South Central Florida might have worked over the atmosphere already before or near sunrise, with nothing but high clouds to follow. So that reasoning seems sound enough for now.


Otherwise, much less cloud cover north 1/2 of state, with east central portions playing the middle man . If so, storms (as opposed to patches of rain/showers) should not begin until at least noon time or so. The winds toward East Central might generate off and on light to moderate rain, or big storms. It is nearly impossible to say which if any. The combination of best instability though would normally justify making the north 1/2 claim, and that is where this post will rest today. Not to say activity cannot exist to the south either, hence the different color coded scheme.


BEYOND: We 'could' have another over night to early morning event over Central in the long run based on vorticity fields tonight toward sunrise, but timing again has no preference under a cloud sky regime for the most part, since most storms which will be isolated at best in any case. referring primarily to wind fields aloft and energy rather than purely surface based, normal summer thunderstorm (like) mechanisms. Chances in such manner continue into Friday, especially focusing more toward Central as a front boundary as shown above sinks into the area, eventually south yet further.


Impressions I'm getting from the latest ECMWF and GFS are that the western boundary portion of that foretold front might begin to lag, so that the front by Saturday extends from near Sebastian and NW ward toward Pensacola for another day or toward into Sunday if not early Monday. Thus, the shenanigans continue. By Tuesday it appears any activity will be restricted to the West half of the state as low level easterlies result from high pressure at the surface to lower levels builds eastward and offshore the Deep South region, but it is fairly shallow in vertical height. Even though weak steering might be eastward, do not believe any storms to form in that regime will actually make it very far and across the late afternoon sea breeze which will be well past Orlando by the time Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon time rolls around.