Will leave this weekend post brief but to make out a few points in continuity from the previous post.
As of 12 noon Sunday, there is a rotating storm in the western Gulf west of Tampa Bay, which 'might' be producing a water spout or severe CAT wind. Will it make it ashore? Hard to know.
Regardless, the 4KM NAM and latest HRRR runs imply that some activity could hold together or at least get a bit organized as the approaching pre-frontal trough and cold front come across North to South Central Florida later today into tonight and through the post-midnight hours.
As shown in the graphic above, there could be some 'heavy' activity as far east as the East Coast after dark tonight. The HRRR even implies two separate periods of potentially enhanced activity across Eastern Parts , one around 8-10pm and another around 2-4AM Monday morning. The 4KM NAM not so much so though. Since surface based instability will be weak to nearly non-existent at either time, chances are if there is any 'rotating going on' in storm structures it won't be realized at the ground by anything other than some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder, but it would behoove us not to at least mention it as after all, this is Florida in the 'winter' time frame and well, 'stuff happens'.
Point is for later today and tonight : Heads up, it could 'wind and rain' (or just rain) and be generally stormy (briefly) but then again don't be surprised if you see little to no rain at all.
MONDAY: Skies will clear out during first half of day across all of North and Central Florida on this Day- December 21, other than perhaps the chance we'll see a good batch of Jet Stream Cirrus clouds overhead during the day which would stifle any full on sunshine(insolation) ..otherwise, highs still up into the 60Fs and maybe a low 70F here or there. Not cold behind this front, lows generally in the 50Fs to mid-upper 40Fs across isolated inland areas.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Uneventful as wind swings from northwesterly eventually around to a light NE-E and eventually southeast direction by Thursday. Temperatures moderating to around normal and no rain foreseen.
THURSDAY: Here we are again with Christmas Eve and the big question of will there be severe weather and if so , when.
It STILL looks like this frontal system will be a POTENT ONE with strong shear aloft both from Speed and Directional Shear. I'd gander we'll be hearing about this one coming up on the news stations once the week gets going, stay tuned (!).
All in all, the GFS has 'timing for rain chances' to set up sometime as early for Eastern Half of Central Florida as just after 1pm and anywhere up through 8pm - which could conflict with Evening Christmas Eve Services (too). But again, timing is still in question ;that there could be strong storms is not in question.
CHRISTMAS DAY: The jury seems to have convened and met with a verdict - COLD and WINDY on Christmas Day; in fact, this day into the next could be the coldest '36-48 hour Period' of cold temperatures we've seen yet with highs barely getting out of the lower 50Fs most areas.
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: With wind letting up by this day, it appears to be the colder but less windy. The GFS implies mid-upper 30Fs along and west of US1 or I95, but again, this is still several days out and will change frequently up until mid week next week at least; however, at this point the GFS has not let up on the Signal of Cold temperatures and word has it that the Euro model agrees.
A glance at the CANADIAN model shows that rain/storms might not move in until after 8PM Christmas Eve night, but does show cold air as well, even mid-upper 30Fs near the beaches on Saturday morning the 26h, the Day after Christmas. It also shows high temperatures on Christmas Day perhaps not even reaching 50F from Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Brr...(with wind).
IN Summary - best chance of Rain and Storms is later today and tonight (overnight)...and again on Christmas Eve Day somewhere after 1pm to as late as 8pm - 3AM Christmas Morning.
The other big story is much Colder Temperatures Christmas Day and the Day afterward.
Last Fling: Watching the time frame around New Year's Eve for 'heavy weather' as well.
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