Chance of Lightning Storms Mainly Portions of East Central

Thunderstorm Moves East Across  the Banana River, Merritt Island Yesterday (June 30)

TODAY: Different day  from yesterday  ... in location of the best available moisture for storms, 'the direction of storm motion, and 'potential storm strength'.

Wind aloft in all steering levels has become northwesterly, whereas surface winds remain light. Looks like the pressure gradient up through 2000 feet will remain light enough for the diurnal sea breeze circulations to set up, but be a bit delayed in some locations on the east coast  and not make it too far inland from that coast as well. 

On the other-hand, the west coast sea breeze boundary will have no problem with being established and making its eastward journey once day time heating gets firmly established and the land mass starts to heat up. Today, that should happen fairly evenly in the absence of significant cloud coverage anywhere.

Best moisture is showing up to be across mainly peninsular North and North Central Florida earlier in the day to continue to work east and south during the day mainly down the eastern half of the state.

Activity could go up along either sea breeze boundary but be less than 'spectacular' earlier in the day.  With that said, showers and some storms could arise toward the spine of the state earlier in the afternoon as the west coast boundary moves east and south (from the NW)..apparent motion might be east at times along the boundary itself until later in the day when storms reach higher heights and fully latch on to the prevailing NWesterlies aloft.

The largest amassing of showers/storms/cloud coverage looks like it might be mainly near SR 50 and south near I-95 to US1 from Titusville south to Fort Pierce, with the Fort Pierce and south areas getting their greatest influx latest as outflows from activity further north are accelerated southward. How far south storms might be able to manifest is in question, however. For example, will West Palm get in on it, or Ft Lauder dale (going toward dark). Hard to say.

Temperatures aloft today are not all that cold but convergence of boundaries along  a somewhat potentially opposing sea breeze(from the east south east) with outflows from the north (esp. late if it starts to become more southerly as often occurs with time) might result in some 'good poppers'.

 Net effect, some stronger storms might be able to manifest from Merritt Island south toward Indian River or even St. Lucie County just inland from the immediate coast.

TUESDAY: Same overall scheme of things but with more moisture availability, so we could see even greater coverage. Not sure the winds aloft will have as much as a westerly steering component tomorrow so despite higher coverage, the immediate coasts might 'steer clear' of actual rainfall (but not cloud coverage).

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Sort of iffy for Wednesday. The latest NAM wants to keep up the moisture content while the GFS was shutting it off. Regardless, we start to lose steering and what does evolve ends up favoring tWEEKEND-NEXT WEEK: A pattern change during Mid-Week next week is being indicated. That would be a pattern that would favor the west coast but rather dry, to a much more moisture laden atmosphere with steering favoring East Side come Saturday as a larger scale upper level trough attempts to deepen down the eastern U.S.
he west side of the state.

 All in all, the period from Late Sunday through next Thursday looks to be rather 'wet', at least on paper. Whether this will end up being 'too much cloud coverage' or actual storms, will be another story for another day.