Summer's Last Gasps Through Monday, Cape Verde Season Shut Down (?)

Launch of a Delta II Rocket this morning from Cape Canaveral as captured by this blogger

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TODAY'S SYNOPSIS (ANALYSIS): Not sure if there is a lot to talk about today or if there is very little. In general, the surface boundary has moved very little since yesterday and has become much less defined. Today seems to be a sort of 'transition' day with the mid-level trough having shifted much further north. Although moisture is now much further north nicely aligned with the best wind fields, instability further north is very insufficient for surface based storms, but sufficient to carry a storm based in the mid-levels. Exactly how the transition will have evolved further prior to sunset is unknown. None of the models have seemed to once again captured reality. In review of radar/satellite animations and trends, it is apparent that a weak disturbance is again crossing the state, but of much weaker origin than that of yesterday. It also appears to be based in the mid-levels but does have lightning associated with it regardless. This area of interest is  to cross just north of  Dead Central along the Beach Line and south of I-4, but favoring more toward the North.


Further South, dry air in the mid-levels is attempting to impinge across Southwest Florida but might make little more progress. This could actually enhance thunderstorms along the Southern  portions toward the Everglades/Lake Okeechobee/ and near the coast from Ft. Lauderdale north to  Ft. Pierce, especially along the east coast sea breeze.


Further North toward Central. Very light east coast sea breeze circulation close to the decaying surface boundary should prevail. Skies are quite sunny and heating is strong, but there is a very persistent area of sinking air over Brevard County in the wake of yesterday's system. Another disturbance (weak) is approaching, but will take until nearly 3-4pm to reach beyond the Orlando area, during which time the far east might be able to fully 'recover' and uncap. Thus, Brevard in particular is highly uncertain.

In this image from the Storm Prediction Center's webpage it can be seen that precipitable water is lower over the SE Gulf and trying to move into SW Florida. This is attributed solely to lower moisture in the mid-levels and could eventually enhance storm strength across South Florida especially along the East Coast sea breeze and around Lake Okeechobee breezes as far north as Ft. Pierce. The area near Brevard is circled mainly because nothing could happen in this area today. BUT, on the other-hand, conditions could change quite rapidly between 5-6pm as the area of weak rain-showers with some lighting approaches from the West, especially along and east of the east coast sea breeze .  

 The area in red is noted as being a bit capped this afternoon which currently completely precludes the area from receiving rain today. However, if it suddenly becomes uncapped late today, it would be right as the weak disturbance approaches from the west. To add, spiraling low level currents associated with the east coast seabreeze could build up around Canaveral Bight toward Port St. John and south toward Sebastian/Vero.  Southern Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie Counties might contend as well with outflows from storms around the Big Lake to add to the mix. Under the assumption of course that anything can get going. Might be a late rain or storm show far east coast again tonight with rains lingering toward 10pm...and storms could get feisty if they can manifest along coastal Brevard and Indian River Counties.


Final note that again models are useless today. For example, according to the GFS it should be raining over much of East Central as I type, yet the sky is blue. Perhaps it is just fast. If it is correct but wrong on the timing, then east central could get a prolonged rain (light) in places through 10pm tonight. Looking out there now though, nothing suggests it will even rain at all.

**NOTE Best bet is keep an eye to the sky for those in this purple area heading toward 5pm and beyond in Brevard.. The surface boundary is still around there regardless and you never know when someone will slide one under the table to the waiter.

SUNDAY: Another random day of either very low rain chances or good ones. Thus, we'll play it by ear . I can see what guidance states but I again do not trust it mainly because it looks like something might be waiting in the wings well out in the Gulf which could head toward the state. The only thing that does not change is that the areas for rain look best roughly as in the same spots it has already occurred during the past 3 days.


MONDAY: Perhaps the last gasp of summer in the rain department. Not that we won't have more rain chances coming down the pipe. Simply, it looks like the end of the diurnal cycle, which actually ended with the passage of Irene. After Monday rain chances go to near zero through Friday when a small chance will be introduced somewhere, probably over South Florida. There where be some small chances somewhere, but it would be fleeting and small.


TROPICS: The Climate Prediction Center formally announced that as of August we are in a La Nina pattern. Much more will be posted in that regard in a follow up post in a day or so concerning what impact that has on Florida weather later in the year and into the winter. In regard to the tropics, it often means a continued late Tropical Season. Already, and as noted the other day, the Caribbean 's Pot Has yet to really be stirred...and is prime and ready for activity. It is that time of year that the Cape Verdes Season ends..and  it is definitely looking like there is little more to come down the pipe from there from off of Africa. Thus, we shift toward the Caribbean/ Eastern Gulf and western Atlantic closer to Florida and the Bahamas.  


Indeed, the morning GFS has a very large cyclonic circulation developing over the entire Caribbean all of next week including the Bahamas, all of the Great Antilles..and portions of the Lesser Antilles after Maria has made its final goodbyes (more on that storm tomorrow).


In closing, it was during the La Nina of 1999 that two storms came out of the Caribbean..one of them being..ironically...IRENE, in October.

Harvey and Irene , September and October 1999, La Nina