Severe Threat Thursday - Isolated "Strong" Possible Today

Extra-Generous on the 'Strong" Storm Chance today
But Conditions Warrant a Whisper in the Ear

TODAY: There is forecast to be sufficient instability today propagating from South Florida and just offshore toward East Central Florida later today. Lack of greater coverage though is problematic as well as how much instability there will be,  but this could be offset by cold air aloft and gradually increasing mid-upper level wind profiles with some turning as well which in and off itself promotes upward storm growth in the presence of slightly diverging wind fields well aloft. There are hints of 3-5 storms between the Brevard County zone just inland toward St. Augustine but high clouds further north might negate that potential. Storms or rain showers could continue until after dark ending after 8 or 9pm. Most areas will not experience much if anything today.

THURSDAY: Not much of a change from the previous post, at least as POSTulated. Guidance per the NWS continues to indicate a disparity in timing but that models are coming closer together in regarding to timing, and it is likely this will continue to manifest with subsequent model runs. As is often the case, the reality of the situation will be revealed as the actual situation(s) unfold Real Time, considering that often interactions occur which tend to blur the lines of science with reality. 

NOTE: This outlook extends further South than OFFICIAL OUTLETS
are announcing as of the time of this post

After a break from any potential activity that may or might occur this afternoon, the meat of the matter starts to go through the grinder in the Gulf to approach the state very early Thursday across the Panhandle and then spreads south and east during the day from mid-late morning through the over night hours. The potential chance of strong downburst winds embedded in line echoes and miso-scale rotation in liner like storms on radar coupled with greater mesoscale rotations both discrete and embedded within arcing segments  might result in a Tornado Watch Issuance to the North and then be extended toward most if not all of Central Florida contingent upon how the stage is set and the play acts out. This is noted by the overall chance of that chance within the purple bounds above.

**NOTE: It is HIGHLY recommended that if the situation does indeed develop to any degree resembling said discussion, that access to continuous live radar as opposed to the Weather Channel be partaken with. Some news Channels will likely be on continuous coverage if the situation manifests to a degree that it will be warranted.

FRIDAY: Activity 'might' develop into a more bona-fide QLCS squall line for a time across parts of Central or South Central and press on South and weaken as upper level support pulls off to the East and NE by or before sunrise to early afternoon before reaching far south Florida. Too soon to say for sure IF and when when this will occur, and if so how far such a squall line will extend South as at time such situations create their own environment not foreseen by model guidance.

BEYOND: Mainly dry with only a day or two of mildly cooler temperatures but still well above our last cold spell. Another Severe Weather Chance might manifest once again in about a week from Friday.