Conditional Chance There Will Be Storms Today - Strong Storms Possible Early Next Week

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral - June 6, 2019

 YESTERDAY: Things panned out pretty much as thought 'could have occurred' at least
in a few locations. It just so happened to 'occur' at the bloggers location (conveniently).

Rainfall totals around Central Florida varied from Zero to over an inch -even up to 2.00' and more,with the overall largest totals across the Panhandle region.

TODAY: As blog post title infers, the chance for another bout of potential thunderstorms anywhere today is conditional upon a mitigating factor, namely CLOUD COVER. 

A simple glance outside shows that clouds are present over a vast majority of the state, including Central Florida, as does latest visible satellite imagery (below). In monitoring satellite animation trends (and infrared while it was still dark out), it appears that they might be thinning out a bit over some regions, but whether or not the trend will continue or if with a little heating we'll just cloud right back up again is yet to be known. 

This is often an issue when the atmosphere becomes so moisture laden. Forecast guidance can scream 'rain rain rain' but in the end, what we get is 'clouds clouds clouds' instead apart  from other factors other than day time heating and lake/sea breeze boundary interactions to work with, such as vorticity lobes (upper level energy) passing over head and steep mid-level lapse rates.

Temperatures aloft aren't all that cold today but still definitely cold enough with 500mb coming around -6.5C and 700mb around 7.5C   amounting to mildly unstable  with weak lapse rates  , that's three strikes against 'storms' today.

 Model guidance seems to have picked up on the trend too, for example, the short range High Resolution model earlier was calling for storms across much of the east half of the state, but as of 10 AM that risk has all but vanished, for it now shows but mere patches of rain-showers at best other than across the Panhandle.

If per chance we start to get better cloud breaks, that very same model could change it's tune. Point is, IF we can get sufficient clearing across rather a large area, storms would be back once again, and from the looks of it, mostly 'somewhere' for East Central and North Central Florida moving toward the east coast.

WEEKEND: Little change to forecast otherwise. The complex mid-upper level low pressure area which covers several states will shift north and east toward Alabama/Georgia , even North Florida heading toward Monday. Steering from WSW to ENE will increase with plentiful moisture and that combined with lowering upper level temperatures should contribute too to better lapse rates adding for better lifting motion.   The better chance for STRONG storms appears to be Sunday. Like today, Saturday will again be conditional -- though at this point will go with persistence and play the 'good chance of storms' card once again. If not, then more cloud cover. All in all meaning, not such a great weekend for the beach either way you look at it.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Again, with colder air aloft in the forecast (per the GFS model) as well as ample moisture, apart from cloud cover risks, expect we could see strong storms  up through TUESDAY of next week from Sunday onward,  perhaps even WEDNESDAY. Rainfall totals across all days in some locations, especially across the Panhandle and areas north of I4 could  exceed 4" before all is said and done. Some areas have already received more than 3" in the panhandle.

WHEN DOES THE PATTERN CHANGE? So far, it appears Thursday night going into Friday.
Surface winds and winds aloft become easterly and rain chances significantly decrease for the east coast, though South Central/South Florida might have on one more day (at least that has been the going trend the past few model runs). Whether there might be overnight / early morning shower activity in that location is too soon to say.