Standard Florida Summer Weather With a Wrench

Thunderstorms Offshore The Cape's Point At Sunset Wednesday Evening

TODAY: The overall synoptic scale pattern has changed only a little from yesterday. Moisture is most deep over the Southern 1/3 of the state..but only by about 0.1" ..otherwise, vast moisture rules... Sea breezes are relatively light at both coasts at 1pm..and a Lake Breeze reveals the prevalent low level flow from the SSE per its shadow (as that the sky has cleared out upstream of the lake). Either side of that shadow will be the next area for a thunderstorm to form, aside from random short - lived showers and a thunderclap or two along either of the sea breezes as they progress only slowly inland. Steering today is mostly straight up the state with a slight curve toward the east coast north of Brevard County. But, these winds are so light that even a sea breeze boundary will prevent storms from crossing it.  Any mid-level boundary over the state is all but gone, but another is on the way overnight ...in essence, the state is in a 'state of limbo'...typical summer...


There is one other factor today though, not of normal summer fanfare. That being, storms over the Atlantic Ocean. They are setting off outflow boundaries toward the East Coast...in fact, an earlier one sparked some showers and brief thunder from near Ft. Pierce to KSC as it moved up the east coast before the sea breeze has set in...


With other activity from other offshore outflows and the SE Coast Sea breeze setting wheels in motion eventually for thunder, some strong..over the Glades..likely the strongest storm there will be just south of Lake Okeechobee today as both sea breezes work in and react with a light backward Lake Breeze. The area in the open SW area of the state also looks like a good bet for multiple and repeated outflow interactions. SW Florida could become a washing machine of showers and storms today.


Otherwise, I took a gamble today to bet on those outflows well offshore to affect the weather near the east coast toward Vero/Ft Pierce by mid-afternoon. Remaining boundaries from earlier showers, the Lake Breeze, and the sea-breeze/outflows and contraflows approaching the coast could set off some big storms toward interior Indian River and Martin Counties (dependent on the sea breeze in the area though)..or..uncluttered but transparent lake breeze...these storms could collapse and send outflows up the east coast sea breeze by which time it will be west of I-95. Chain reactions could set off more storms toward Kenansville. Yeehaw Junction, and perhaps as far north as Deer Park toward dinner time or near 532 in North Osceola County.


Elsewhere...I'd only expect the sea breezes to meet toward North Florida...but even so, whether it occurs there or anywhere else, it will be a very diffuse 'collision'. That being because it is likely that outflows from other storms will have already corrupted the state so extensively that the actually sea breeze collision time might be difficult to decipher.


Strong storms are not expected, although a pulse stronger storm at a three or even four point boundary collision could generate a period of frequent lightning. Those will be very isolated.

ON THE OTHER HAND: If storms cannot not chain reaction with that outflow shown approaching the SE Coast...then the best bet for storms will be SW Florida..the interior and toward the west side south of Orlando...

FRIDAY: Another mid-level trough should approach the state, and by all indications might get into North Central Florida by Saturday. Sea breezes should be delayed a bit, with more of a SW toward the NE steering, albeit pretty weak. This should keep the east coast sea breeze glued closer toward the coast or at least delay it until after 1pm...so Lake/sea breeze collisions again toward Lake Okeechobee/Vero/Ft Pierce will come more into play once again...with a west/east coast sea breeze collision more toward the east of dead central.  With that mid-level trough approaching the state throughout the day, storms should become more vigorous working into late afternoon toward eastern Osceola /Orange/Seminole/Western Volusia...while over South Florida all activity should be over the Glades and just west of the metros.


SAT/SUN: More like today...although some drier air might work into SE Florida or even North Florida as well. Oddly, the GFS wants to leave the 700mb boundary in a state of decay over dead Central..with a focus on the synoptic scale anywhere along that boundary coast to coast over Central Florida..with light winds otherwise...this most certainly will not be the whole story though...and will need to be re-evaluated when we draw closer to a realistic time frame while at the same time monitoring 3 more model runs between now and then.


TROPICS: The GFS has been consistent with now Six (6) Model runs of bringing a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane into Florida later next week...so this bears watching. Originally, the swath of error many many days ago could have been Mexico to South Carolina. This was mentioned and even shown in a graphic.  But in the past two days (including that last two of 2AM and 8AM)...the track has been toward the Central or Upper Keys toward the Tampa Area. They system shown is not a small one...a size that would impact the entire state in some form or another. The strongest winds shown are on the East Side of the system over the Interior and East coast, thus, it is important not to focus on the center of the storm only.... Something to bear in mind...the press is already starting to hit on this notion..so do not believe any one will be taken by surprise should such a scenario even come to fruition at all......