Quite Warm, Chance of Thunderstorms By Mid-Late Week

In Reference to the 'normal' summer wet season

THIS WEEK: Short post today. Very warm and stuffy out under high pressure aloft. A bit on the dry side, which is in reference to the above image. highs in the low-mid 90Fs wide spread, with the lower humidity (although gradually increasing)..making heat indexes less than 'impossible' relatively speaking.


Weather from yesterday through Tuesday to be a bit unlike summer, and more like an intermittent prelude to the onset of the wet season, more like mid-May to late-May-ish.  The other morning, Vero recorded a record low of 68F, whereas in Canaveral the porch read 67F, identical to that of the likes of a temperature which heralds the end of summer only by personal observation for this area, rather than the onset of the wet season.  Given the strange circumstances and length of time that Debby was in the area, some major realignments are in order now. These will be in progress through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the best chance of an inland shower or two due to sea breeze convergence, and a thunderstorm of two along the Florida SW Coast.


High pressure in the mid-levels will begin to erode due to an onslaught of troughs running across the Ohio Valley region, eventually to the point that a new mid-level ridge axis will form across South Florida if not further south. The result will be light SW flow aloft accompanied by a 'hard to determine at this point' east coast sea breeze. The first more pronounced day for thunderstorms along I-4 and into the South will be July 4th, more so the following two days.


Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be sinking south toward the north end of the state across the Deep South accompanied by its moisture convergence boundary, simultaneously, moisture from the tropics will finally work its was east toward the state. Exactly which feed of moisture will arrive first to North Central is difficult to say at this point due to the time in the future yet still. Either way, after Friday with possible storms mainly along the Central Dividing Line and south, possibly along I-4 toward Daytona...all things change as to where the better rain chances will be. Overnight GFS shows a combination of both worlds, or at least a hint of such, heralding a return to normalcy, give or take the direction storm motions will be makes all the difference in the world in regard to who is affected and who is not.


In short, Debby Stole our wet season, although most definitely, some would beg to differ...those flooded out. However, that was not 'wet season' rains.. climatology speaking in it's purest form.