First Cold Front of 2017-2018 Slated for Tomorrow Afternoon

October 16, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not too much change in the short - term (today) other than that the risk of actual 'thunder' (been a while) is a bit higher than has been previously indicated. The chance , however, is conditional due to how long  a rather "cirious" looking  cirro-stratus deck of high clouds will remain fixed aloft, mainly across North Central into parts of Central. 

The best potential for storms today at the lower levels of the atmosphere (parameters wise) just so happens to be where those clouds are now co-located, which negate any positive affects for storms. 

As a result, the blog will simply indicate the entire region that has the best-overall chance of seeing thunder today ( not necessarily exclusively). The Area over far Southern Interior Florida also appears to be in the game but all areas are in question. If thunder can get going, even rain showers (apart from some that have already manifested along the east coast near Melbourne and south) it would most likely be after 3:00pm or so through 7-8pm.

TUESDAY: Cold front still on the way for mid-week, though it will be a bit slower to make the sweep down the peninsula. All guidance is in agreement that a 2PM FROPA (frontal passage) across Central-Direct will have to be put on hold for early evening. As a result, day time heating, and the questionable amount of cloud cover that might or might not be present   tomorrow will again make for a conditional chance of thunder from Brevard County southward toward Broward County.  Chances are we'll at least see some showers along the cold front however, as that boundary will act as a low level convergence source, and hence , as a lifting mechanism. 

What that also means though is one more day of 'warmth' . The last vestiges , or apparently so, of 2017 Warmth are getting closer and closer to exit the scene until 2018, at least, as a full time resident. Given that days are getting shorter due to lower sun-angle, eventually we will be resigned to realize that the new normal for highs will be in the lower 80Fs and eventually even cooler with time.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front slated to work across Central Florida and be located still along a line from near  Central Brevard toward Southern Sarasota Area around 8PM Tuesday evening, if not a bit further north than that. 

It will have to be waiting for some reinforcements to arrive to make further southward progress, but never fear, they're on the way for the front to make to far South Florida by day break.

What this all means is that morning lows on Wednesday won't be quite as cool as previously anticipated but not by a significant difference. Dry air advection ahead of the parent high pressure area building east across the Deep South will filter in continual fluxes of drier air all day Wednesday and most notably over night Wednesday evening.

 Low Wednesday morning along Coastal Brevard and South might be in the 63-65F degree range with a NW wind , but not a 'strong and gusty' kind of wind. Day time highs in the lower-mid-70Fs , but due to the delayed FROPA this also means that the strongest of cold air advection will be at play during peak heating, which means areas just to the north and/or interior regions North Central and North 'might' struggle to attain 70F  --bearing in mind, what this all means most  for the immediate beaches is that the afternoon High Temperature on Wednesday will be cooler and drier than any of the morning low temperatures  that region has realized since spring.

THURSDAY: Again, driest of air will pave the course to allow  over night lows to 'plummet' into the mid-50Fs many areas interior, even lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs (dare we say it?) over North Central along or near Route 27 (Lake County for example), though upper 40Fs might be a bit much. Regardless, that is the region that will see the coolest temperatures , with the 'less frigid' temperatures coastal Brevard , southward. Lows in the latter region in the upper 50Fs on the outer Barriers, with lower-mid 50Fs closer to US1 and west. Lighter wind this day under pleasant skies. Thursday, after the morning chill, looks like it could be a rather stellar day to go outside and play.

FRIDAY: Fun -n- games over,  mainly east coast as overnight winds attain an onshore component. Morning lows beaches in the mid-upper 60Fs and will rise to to Thursday''s high temperature range with two hours after sunrise more than likely Moistening of the atmosphere will only be slow, but progressively increase a bit heading to Saturday. No rain.

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Wouldn't be surprise if we have a Tropical Depression on hour hands in the far SW Caribbean 'somewhere' before we see the weekend begin.  Most guidance purports that something of that nature will lift north across Cuba , but likely be pulled just off to the east of the peninsula as the next cold front approaches, with potential rain affecting parts of South Central to all of South Florida  (if  any of this occurs ) with a closest pass to the state. Granted, it's just too soon to say, as the first assumption is that said circulation will manifest, and secondly that it will lift north as well, at least in the mid-term.

Regardless, at this rate nothing to start rationing food and stocking up on batteries over though this weekend at any forecast-rate is up for grabs depending upon the area of interest that the Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of development beyond 48 hours from today (Monday).

More cool weather is on the way it appears now but nothing drastic heading toward next week. 

HALLOWEEN: Given all guidance being shown so far, Halloween looks like it will be dry with seasonable temperatures, nothing frighteningly chilly or spooky wet.