As we've worked into the afternoon hours it has become apparent that the East Coast sea breeze is making very, VERY little progress inland this afternoon. Apparently due to the fact that the mid-level ridge axis has shifted further south toward Palm Beach County abetted by a midlevel trough axis extending south from the New England through Mid-Atlantic coast.The cloud line that had nearly diminished is not reforming with daytime heating and actually being weakly pushed back to the shore line as cloud tops reach greater height.
Forecast models show winds just above the sea breeze boundary through 10,000ft to remain SW-WSW through the remainder of the daylight hours.
Moisture at this layer is ample enough to just sustain cloud formation and enhancement...and as such moderate cumulus are translating to narrow towering cumulus and rain showers. With additional daytime heating and subsequent destabilization some pockets of moisture (assuming they do not dry up) could coalesce to central points generating a hefty enough area for "just maybe" a thunderstorm. Coastal communities from just south of Ft Pierce to Daytona Beach are all in the penetrable zone for any activity that can actually get going.
The other possibility is that a decent enough storm could get going along I-95 which would send a cooling outflow back to the coast with an accompanying gust front looking cloud formation followed by little to no precipitation accompanying it.
My personal rain chance just went from 0-15.775% for the aforementioned area.
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