Long Term Cold To Bring in The New Year

It won't be as cold as this day shown from my apartment in Utah in 1985 though. I went for a 10 mile run after taking this photo....

(Today's weather conditions are referred to in later paragraphs..Facebookers ( click read on). Want to refer to the 'cold' stuff first as a prelim in these first paragraphs.

Friday Through Friday Night... the ECM/UKM/NAM forecast models are slightly slower with the timing of the upcoming MAJOR cold frontal passage---diverging from the GFS. But I'm In agreement with all (with a minor timing differentation), but what it all amounts to in the long run is that rapid Southeastward acceleration of the boundary (front) during the day on New Years is a given as a strong coastal low pressure system literally 'bombs out' over the Western Atlantic off New Jersey ....another guarantee (have fun..... J "T" C)!! . Any shower activity that materializes (which is becoming lesser with time during the mid-night to late afternoon hours of the New Year Day) will rapidly translate southeast and out of the picture. Cold Air Advection will RAPIDLY ensue behind the cold fronts passage.

In other words...it's going to get cold FAST. We can expect a good 15 degree temperature drop within the first 2 hours of cold frontal passage..which at this time appears to be around the 10am-2pm time frame. But if the lagging trend continues as portrayed by previous, consecutive model runs since Monday..it might be more like a 2-5pm time frame (but I really don't expect that). It won't take a "weather man to know"..at the first hints of a stronger wind, and much cooler air swipping away your "good hair day"..You'll know.."He's Baaaack!".

Regardless of either and/or/ but ..., by 6pm in the pre-sunset hours we're going to know that winter has arrived with gnashing teeth accompanied by WNW to NW winds gusting to about 24 mph. NO FUN! Boo..hiss...and Beyond Comprehension. HaHa..you'd think we're in for a blizzard!!

And old man winter is here to stay too...rain chances though, after late Friday, will be nil for a week at least...as will warm air. The upper level polar vortex will rotate around the great NE U.S. *just like it did all summer by the way: and eject sporadic pockets of upper level energy down its base and across the U.S. Deep South East for a sequential period of days providing cold air "reinforcements"..(in come the troops)..and that coupled with a strong Southern Branch Jet "Streaming" just to the south of us or over us...will not only generate much below normal temperatures..but periods of mid and upper level cloud cover as accompaniment. Sometimes I just hate El Nino winters.

For now..expect today to be very comfortable with a high in the mid-70s and a land breeze (our saving grace from any wind that could come off the ocean's 67, if not cooler, temperature). But clouds will be on the increase as a gift from the mid and upper level winds that will propogate clouds in ahead of the developing situation (note that I didn't refer to 'it' as a storm)...although some cloud breaks can't be disregarded as a genuine possibility.

Nothing becomes to exceptionally affirmative (forecast wise) until New Year's Day Break whence we should be affirmatively be consumed by clouds and the approaching cold frontal boundary. Rain chances in the models I believe are way over done..some folks might not get rain at all..others might get totals up to a quarter inch.

The major point to made for this post is..prepare for a LONG DURATION VERY COOL TO COLD EVENT (contingent upon what considers cold of course). If you like a high temperature around 58 degrees and a low around 44 then jump with glee. Break out the clothing reserved for such occasions..why not..it can be fun and stylish :-)

It will be colder on some upcoming mornings beyond the scope of this post..especially away from the coast..as there will be some flunctuations based on the timing of particulars that will materialize at free will as the vortex gives birth to sub-vortexes that will rotate around the base of the trough (hovering over the southeast United States..including Florida) causing it to sporadically dig a tad further south and thus allow the thickness values between 1000mb-500mb layer to decrease, ...AKA colder air to penetrate.. anything of significant, forecastable influence astray from what has already been written will be alluded to in later posts.

Thanks for your help National Weather Service, Melbourne. You pulled the words right out of my gut in your forecast discussions (the REAL SOURCE for our local weather)..so I could put them to virtual paper! You guyz rock.

It's "True, Blue, at 72"..What A Day!

What not a better time to muse on something warm, cuddly and cute? One has to be in a good mood today if in East Central Florida (not discounting personal, ever so near, matters).. The weather simply does not get any better than this.

It might be even warmer now (after this post)...and it sure is dry too. Did you notice how dry it is? Any chance of one of those renigade rainshowers that, yes, are off shore just beyond the horizon reaching shore, is nil. There was a proplexity in yesterday's forecast that even threw the National Weathe Service through a momentary loop..that being the onshore flow never developed. Instead, a weak inverted trough (induced by the Gulf Stream Waters at the lowest atmospheric levels)..formed under which the immediate coast is right on the axis of. Winds are light and variable all around..but inevitably a light onshore flow ensues solely as a typcial seabreeze for the same reasons we see one in the the summer (warmer land mass, cooler ocean = sea breeze) due to rising air mass replacement from land to sea.

Despite all this, our temperature is warming oh so nice. It's so comfortable out there I can hardly stand it! They just don't "mak'm like they used to". And that fact is going to be definitely reaffirmed in the very, not so distant, future. Welcome Old Man Winter..because here he comes...and he doesn't have bells on his toes either. He's got Fangs!

I'm not going to mention what the Weather Service or Weather Channel are saying because , quite frankly, I haven't even looked! TV has not been on all day..including the pre-sunrise hours, but I will say that this script is a bit off from I expect is being publized on the main stream; therefore, check up on those resources to get the "official" (the National Weather Service being thus). I've just been too busy listening to music and enjoying just a few friendship phone calls and laying low...

Through today into tonight: A brief swath of mid-low level clouds to pass over the IMMEDIATE coastal communities between 4-6pm.. otherwise cloud free/rain free (regardless) as the previously suppositioned deep on-shore flow will not exist to transport showers to the land mass.

Picture This Mentally: As we go into the evening and overnight hours the wind at the lower and mid-levels will become south to SSW..preventing any off shore showers to translate to the coastal communties..staying within arm's reach offshore. Thursday is going to be a pretty decent day for the most part is the current train of thought (and which is where the disparity lies with the majority). We will very likely see an increase in at first high level clouds which will be evident at sunrise..then more mid-level clouds as we progress past noon time. But it will be even warmer with a land breeze and no rain. In essence, tomorrow..especially the first half..could be "DA KINE" (minus pure, unadulterated sunshine).

Holding off on the chance of rain is yet another disparity. I think the rain will hold even longer than previously, or even more recently thought. The first chances will be shortly before sunrise New Year's Day...then all day a very good chance of rain with best chances betwee 10am-5pm New Year's Day. After that, clearing over night with a mostly sunny sunrise on the 2nd..very cool..and getting colder..for a WEEK! You read that right. I'll try updating in the more 'near-term' if conditions warrant..but as of this time there's no indication of any severe weather..but there is of especially windy weather to add to the wind chill. Just expect an offshore wind component developing by morning..continued dry for another day (not even sure what the 'masses' are saying about tommorow because I haven't checked). Happy Pre-New Year..New Year.

Totally Clear Most of the Day, Warmer Tomorrow

(Pictured above is the sunset during the passage of Hurricane Dennis off to our east)

We've finally got the coldest morning for the next few days out of the way, and the sky is completely clear this morning. Expect today to warm up to near 61 degrees today under continued clear skies and light north winds. All in all, not too bad although we could stand to notch to temperature up...like 20 degrees. Those days aren't too far off though...or at least close to it. By late afternoon, say in the 3-4pm time frame the wind will have swung over to the NE...and some stratocumulus clouds will invade the coastal communities mainly east of US1. Kind of odd sounding, but right on the coast the temperature may very well bottom out at around 9pm..then actually warm a couple of degrees over night as the onshore flow deepens, clouds prevent radiational cooling, and winds continue to veer to a more easterly component. However, expect that it will only be east of US1 that will effectively feel the change...even more so east of A1A within two blocks of the beach. The western half of the state and as far south as Punta Gorda probably won't feel the change at all and will thus be in for another cold morning tomorrow...not that any where west of US1 will be all that great either though.

Tomorrow will probably be the best day for all areas across the boards both clouds and temperature wise. Could introduce a small chance of showers late in the day...specifically for the region north of Indian Harbor Beach and south of Oak Hill to the north...as well as east of I95. Problem is that I don't think that we'll have a deep layer moiture recovery in full yet, so would reserve any rain chance to be extremely isolated even within the aforementioned area; nonetheless, the possibility will exist through mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday.

By Thursday we will probably be clouding up pretty good with mainly mid-high level clouds, but the temperature will warm with a high in the low 70s. The chance of rain may actually decrease for a period as the onshore flow weakens and begins to veer to more of a southerly component, leaving any shower activity just off the coast. Friday will be the warmest of days for quite a while, with a high near 74 degrees but the chance of rain will also be on the increase along with more cloud layers. Unless you can monitor the weather continuously, I'd have an umbrella handy upon stepping out for the day...just in case you need by the time you return home later in the day if not on the way out.

A major weather changing cold front will be passing through late New Year's Eve into the New Year day, but timing is still a little iffy as to exactly when the actual frontal passage will occur. As with many cold fronts during an El Nino winter, the chance or rain will increase but not tremendously. We'll have to wait another 36 hours to see more specifically how the rain aspect of the front materializes, but for now I'd expect to be hearing the chances up to either 30 or 40 percent by Thursday afternoon. By late Saturday through Monday we will be rain free, but expect a prolonged (emphasized) very cool to cold spell. As of this writing, I'm not seeing a temperature recovery to warmer air for quite some time...at least not anything totally respectable and worth writing about. Enjoy the next three days while you can !!

Awesome Day In Store

Photo: Storm Chasers gather at the top of Scott's Bluff, Nebraska on a 'down day". I'm standing on the far left

Like the title reads...that's the story. The coming front is 'super obvious' on satellite as a knotted, linear rope cloud on satellite imagery stretching into the Gulf of Mexico. For today..before the front (we've already had a pre-frontal trough pass which cleared out the clouds)..expect a very pleasant day with a moderate WNW breeze and cool temperature throughout. Keep the sweater out and wear those clothes that have been reserved for an entire year though..because now is the time to be doing it...although they might feel "stuffy" indoors...just don't over do it.

Not much has changed from yesterday's line of thought for the extended period..or even the near term for that matter. Hey, we even had a spritz on the windshield yesterday..but not enough to get the ground wet. Hope you enjoyed it.

Only change, and which was alluded to yesterday as a forethought to a potential change to the GFS's line of 'thought'...is that the intense cold spell it was depicting will not, just like at Christmas time, become a reality. YEAH! Not comfortable with this resolution entirely just yet though. ..one more run. By 10pm tonight we'll know a LOT more. For now, it's tonight thru Tuesday noon that we need to bundle up.

Front, boundary, flow pattern..whatever one wants to call it..will go through with no fanfare unbeknownst to us on the ground. Above our heads the weather gods will be yaking up a storm..but that storm won't come here..just the cold air for Tuesday. Be prepared. A VERY rapid repose to climatic or above norms to begin Wednesday evening with Thursday being the complex one. Don't want to be a liar or to provide false hopes at this point..so I'm leaving Thursday and points beyond out of this equation (post)...as there is simply too many ifs, ands, maybe's', or but's'...but it must be stated with that just written..ANYTHING you hear or see about that time period must be taken with a grain of salt. Those forecasts are made under obligation...but the reality is that those in the making of them are as equally perplexed as myself at this time.

But I can provide this snipet of info which I believe will be an actuality...I also feel responsible to state this because I alluded to the same time frame yesterday. That being, from last I saw..and just like the Christmas 'threat"...we won't get Super Cold after New Years as previously thought. We'll just stay very cool at a level just below seasonal norms...for what looks like an eternity.

But for today, sunny..warming to near 68..but a warm 68 if that makes sense. But, as soon as the sun starts to hug the horizon I'm running for cover!

The El Nino Blues To Continue Today

Satellite image showing perfectly the odd cloud formation directly overhead in the first image. Look over the Cape on the east coast and you can see that thin white line...first photo shows what it looked like from the ground.

Typical, typical, typical...underlined, emphasized, and begroaningly stated. Oh so typical El Nino winter in place and to continue for the next 10 days. Expect today to be very similar to yesterday with mostly to totally cloudy skies for the most part with periodic filtered sunlight to occur at about any time. With the low sun angle and overcast sky it looks like either a perpetual late morning or very late afternoon all day long. Expect the high temperature to pretty much be the same as yesterday's with a high around 64 between the hours of noon-3:30pm.

Synopsis: Weak high pressure over Florida - - an extension of a much larger and stronger one centered over the High Plains of the U.S. -- will 'bubble' lose today and float over the area creating a light north to eventually NNE wind less than 10mph all day. Higher up there in the atmosphere the southern branch jet stream continues to race overhead at 25-35,000 feet at speeds at or approaching 100mph. A low pressure system is trying ever so hard to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it will push east today toward or just south of the Florida Keys. This low will remain weak if not fizzle all together as it approaches the keys with little to no weather associated with it. As it passes south of us the strong high pressure over the Northern Plains will also meander eastward"ly" and reinforce a more WNW surface wind pattern. The air associated with this system will be coming from the recent snow covered areas in the Central Plains and Midwest regions...i.e. - a cold source.

So essentially we're going to get a cold front although I'd prefer to refer to it as simply an enhancement of what we already have in place since there really isn't any discernible boundaries to delineate one. So enhanced that by Tuesday morning it will be...bite my tongue..cold with a low right along the coast around 46 degrees and colder and more toward 40 in rapid transition as one gets west of the Banana River. Cold and breezy to boot.

Clouds to remain in place today...and in fact will overall get worse before it gets better. Radar is actually showing that it should be raining across the northern peninsula roughly under a line running from Jacksonille to Crystal River on the west coast...but none of that "rain" is reaching the ground per latest surface observations from the major reporting resources.

However, I'm throwing in a very remote chance of a 'windshield detectable sprinkle' type spritz anytime after 1pm as we may gain a smidge of additional mid-level lift and associated denser cloud pack currently approaching from the eastern Gulf. Regardless, even if it happens 'rainfall' amounts would not even get the ground wet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning will remain cloudy but as the wind becomes more WNW as that large high pressure over comes the area we could see an opportunity for skies to break up with some decent sun on Tuesday..at least for a 6-12 hour period of time to accompany the windshift. But there is some pseudo-good news in all of this. It currently looks like this cold spell will be very short lived as our warmest day, just like Christmas Eve was, will be right on its heals for New Years Eve. On the downside, it's during that period that we will have our best chances for rain...mmmm..do I hear thunder then..maybe? Maybe.

As we go even later into the week, the late Wednesday to Friday time frame, things become somewhat problemmatic as every model run of any one particular model varies greatly...AND the various models do not agree amongst themselves either. What they do agree on is that after all that will be evolving in the next of the "train of Gulf lows" crosses us sometime within that period...we will end up with the coldest morning/mornings yet this winter. But we're talking nearly a week from now, so we can still pray that - like with this last system that crossed on Christmas - such temperatures will never occur anyway.

Get Down and "Snuggie"

Photo shows Cocoa Beach at 4pm Christmas Day. Nice rain shower seemed to be threatening for a waterspout, but it never happened of which I'm aware of.

If you haven't figured it out already (by going outside), it's obvious the cold front from yesterday has continued on through as the temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler than the past 2 days. So break out that new Christmas sweater or jacket because it's going to come in handy all weekend. Or perhaps you received a Snuggie for Christmas? Maybe you can wear that around to the mall or get one for your dog too and you can show them off while going for a walk :-); or maybe you got a "Wizard of Oz" blankie. I saw one at the mall - - it reads, "I'll get you my pretty" all over it with little pictures of the wicked witch of the west all over it. Too much!

High cirrus clouds and some mid-level altocumulus are visually evident both on satellite imagery and upon looking outside, and as it appears now, at least the cirrus clouds will be with us all weekend. We may get a break from some of the mid-level cloudiness though by mid-late morning and for the rest of the day. Rain chances are pretty much zero all weekend as well along with NW to NNW winds prevailing at a speed less than 10 mph. And so it will be.

Believe that from what I'm seeing on The Weather Channel that their forecasted high temperature is too warm. With only filtered sunlight, shorter days/lower sun angle, and light northerly wind component being the rule believe they've been overshot by nearly 5 degrees -- hence, I believe our high temperature will not crack 65 today and remain around 63 or 64 at best during the hours of 12-2pm. At least it won't be windy, so wind chill won't be a factor. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same as today, with the possibility of some of the clouds breaking up by afternoon as a shot of upper level jet stream passes on to the east.

Future? For now in general thinking, we will remain on the coolish side through Thursday, with the coldest day to be Tuesday when the beaches will go down to the upper 40s with the temps getting closer to 40 the further one goes west of the Banana River. Highs will also remain cool, with the first day of possibly seeing 70 degrees on Thursday. It also so happens that Thursday late will be our next chance of some rain. Plenty of time to see how things come together though, so don't go cancelling a trip to Disney based on what is written this morning.

Have a Holly Jolly...

Radar images show the 'squall line' as well as the rain showers that nicked the Cape over night.

Things are pretty much on track this Christmas morning as expected per yesterday's post. We got down to 68 degrees for a brief time last night, but for the most part it hung right at 70 degrees. A quick rain shower nicked the Cape area about 3 hours before sunrise and we got a quick 0.10" of rain in short order with winds gusting to an estimated 30mph. But those are now long gone as most of that activity is forming and remaining off shore. The tornado producing squall line of yesterday is still marching east and now about 75 miles west of the Florida west coast. In line with yesterday's thinking, still expect it to break up as the supporting low pressure area which created blizzard conditions from Texas to Oklahoma and into the Dakotas moves NNE and 'stretches' out all the associated energy with it. As the line of storms thins an upper and mid level jet streak approaches our area and spills debris cloud across the state by 8-9am which should remain in place the rest of the day. Chances of rain will increase despite the fact that the squall line will become non-existent south of a Daytona Beach - Gainesville line as there is a band of deeper moisture and a tad of instability being shoved this way. Yesterday I said our best chances of thunder would be between 1-4pm. I'm tempted to take out thunder and just make it our best chances of rain will be during that period.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast is still on track with a high today maybe a degree warmer than yesterday despite the cloud cover. Why? We lose the wind off the ocean as it will start to come out of the southwest and not off the 67 degree ocean water. Rain, if any, will end by midnight tonight...but not expecting more than 1/2" anywhere as even the heavier showers that manage to formulate will be moving briskly due to the aforementioned mid level jet streak.

Cooling air temperatures ensue tomorrow with a continued falling trend through Monday with lows right on the coast perhaps in the upper 40s Tuesday morning but otherwise in the mid 50s. Probably up to 10 degrees cooler inland though or perhaps just west of the Indian River. Still fearing abundant high cloud coverage after a period of good clearing immediately behind the front..so after a sunny Saturday we might be doing an about face to the pesky cirrostratus clouds. Still up in the air as to rain chances on Wednesday or late Tuesday...but as it looks now it's actually appearing to be more likely that this cold front will return as a warm front as yet another wave of low pressure forms along its remainders in the Gulf which will move ENE across the state and lift the boundary back toward us for a second blow...this time in the form of stratiform rain...blah's ville. But, that is still a big "if"...so I will continue to monitor this possibility. Perhaps when the later morning model runs have completed running we'll have a better idea of what is to come rain wise. Will reflect on this again in tomorrow's post.

Beautiful Christmas Eve Morning...To Go Downhill

Boy, it feels kind of 'gooey' outside this morning...and expect more throughout the day today, tonight, and all of Christmas Day. A very complex storm system has taken shape over the country's mid-section over night with a surface low pressure system near extreme NW Louisiana and appended cold front/developing squall line extending south from it into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of the squall line is starting to move out of radar range but is easily detectable via satellite imagery. Will it make it here? Don't think so.

(Note: You can click on the Title of this post to see a Christmas Video if reading this from Blogger)

For today, expect due east winds off the 65 degree ocean temperature mixing with an air mass that is trying to warm up 10-15 degrees warmer than that. The result will be very 'sticky'. Temperatures will struggle to warm up as much as they'd like to as a result, but it still will be up around 75 degrees today. Good thing about today over the past few days, there is currently few to no clouds out there as of this writing and it's 67 degrees. In fact, we 'bottomed out' at 67 around 7pm last night, and it never got any cooler due to the onshore winds which kept our temperatures easily 10 or more degrees warmer than our friends over toward Orlando and Tampa. Gotta love the coast (sometimes). You'll see that in early spring it becomes the storm lovers curse. But that discussion is for another day, another season!

Chance of rain today is pretty much nil; however, latest model guidance is suggesting that by late morning we will start to see more clouds overspreading the area - both high clouds starting to stream in from the west in the southern branch jet stream, and from the east at the low levels as warmer air over runs the cooler ocean waters. If they thicken up enough a barely detectable spritz might occur, but I'd put that possiblity at the very low end or low ends. At least it's warmer air, as opposed to the odd situation we had in reverse about a week ago when there was fog right east of US1 at 5pm in the afternoon. The wind will start to veer to a more southeasterly component by late afternoon as the clouds continue to increase. Overnight lows along the coast...and probably over most of the area will only get down to about 67 once again or maybe a notch or two warmer for our late Christmas Eve. Clouds to increase overnight with the chance of a sprinkle ever increasing throughout the evening, especially after midnight.

Christmas Day. Not the best of days I'm sorry to say. At least it won't be pointlessly cold..but it will be totally cloudy with rain chances continuing to increase throughout the day. The now squall line well west of us will probably start to break up as it approaches Florida's West Coast...but there's a decent chance that pieces will still make it here. We could even be hearing thunder, especially in the 1-4pm time frame Christmas Day. I think the official forecast is giving us a 60% chance of rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get bumped up to 70% in one of their upcoming forecast release periods.

Rain chances will start to decrease significantly in the 7-9pm time frame Christmas Night, with the coast being the last to clear out...or at least have the rain end. After the system is passed, the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is painting a "lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs in the mid-60s" painting, with probably lots of high jet stream cloudiness which puts sort of a gunky mood on things. All this happening while yet another in the 'low pressure train' starts to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Timing on these system has been approximately every 5-7 days...and based on a study I did a long time ago, expecting such timing to be the course for much of this El Nino Winter.

Word of note: Caveat - will be watching for potential rain chances to increase much sooner than currently expected ahead of the next system if certain parameters materialize as indicated by one of the forecast models. For now I'm leaving it dry, but by Monday we might be looking at an oozy rain. More to come. Be safe out there..and try not to rush too much today. Joyous Christmas Eve!!

O' Warmy Night!

It appears that we will have a nice Christmas Gift coming to East Central Florida this year, in the form of warm weather (relatively wintery speaking) with a low temperature Christmas Eve in the mid-upper 60s right along the coast. From Orlando westward it will be a totally different story by about a 10 -15 degrees colder difference. In any case, expect today to be very mild with a high near 72 degrees with light east winds and some clouds increasimg by mid-afternoon. The temperature tonight will fall only a smidge (right along the coast, again)...then Christmas Eve Day warms to the mid-70s with continued E-ESE winds (light). Christmas Day should dawn partly cloudy with the possiblity of a few remote rain showers around, with the probability increasing during the day and into the night... thunder is unlikely do to the stable nature of the atmosphere but we'll still see 70 degrees again. After Christmas Day (Saturday)...things go downhill temperature wise, where we'll be flirting with the 40s for lows for several days. Enjoy it while it lasts!

No Changes Today...Another Day of Cirrus Debris

The southern stream jet has dug way south and is streaming from Yucatan across Florida in a wide swath. Expect more of the same today with maybe a "sundog" in the late afternoon. Cool as a result of the clouds. Same again tomorrow so may not need to post...but warmer...finally. Cloudy with a chance of rain all day Christmas Day. Then more of the same for at least 3 days after that. Kind of narrows things down. Wish it was summer!

'Tis The Season...For Whatever

(Above: Ice Skaters in Cocoa Village)

Looks like most of Florida will on the 'slowly moderating temperatures' trend the next two days as a strong high pressure center moves east across the Deep South into the Atlantic off the SE Georgia Coast. The result here will be a wind shift, as noted previously, overnight tonight into Tuesday to the ENE. The wind off the ocean will prevent the temperature from dropping all so much into Tuesday morning (thank goodness...brrrr). Expect today to be much like yesterday, with a high in the very low 60s. The temperature tonight might only drop about 6-8 degrees as the wind shifts. Further inland the change won't be nearly as noticeable as they are not as prone to onshore flow temperature modification as quickly. Even Cocoa will have a harder time to note the change.

Don't expect a huge temperature climb though. We will get into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday and days on, but it won't be tremendously warm as it was when we were near record highs last week. As for rain, still looks like the time-frame for chances will be late Christmas Eve day or more likely evening into much of Christmas Day...yes, the time frame has been pushed out a smidgen. Good thing now that has been noted is that what originally looked like a very cold spell to occur is now not nearly so 'threatening'. Essentially, not as cool as it's been for this one. Hey, if this is all that Ma Nature could dish out this winter I'd be happy. This is nothing compared to how nasty it can get, but we have yet to survive late January, the potentially worst of the worst time. Look for lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid-70s Wednesday along the coast (lows a little lower west of the Indian River and down by Okeechobee away from the water).

Just a little additional information, as winter is now beginning TODAY as a matter of fact, the ocean water will continue to cool, so the days with onshore flow creating such a tremendous temperature differential from inland won't be as tremendous, yet nevertheless will still (and always) exist.

Ave Maria - A Christmas Day (And Weekend)

Perfect Weather For Getting in the Christmas Spirit This Weekend. Enjoy the sweater/jacket weather and somewhat breezy conditions. Things will improve by Monday afternoon as onshore flow (winds) by that evening begin to modify the air[mass along the coast. The next possible chance of rain will be Christmas Eve afternoon thru the pre-sunrise hours of Christmas Day, with clearing skies on Christmas and dropping temperatures throughout the day (as it stands now).

Severe Weather Potential Today

Shown is radar at 5am showing the approaching heavy rain which might have woke some of you up in Brevard County.

As of 5am, it appears a retreating warm from is laying directly across Central Brevard County. It is raining very heavily with gusty winds. This area will progress northward in the predawn hours as the front moves further north. After this area passes on by our attention will shift to a developing squall line that currently appears as if it will enter the eastern half of the state sometime between 1-4pm. Discrete cells ahead of this line will likely form and race northward ...it will be between 12-2pm that we will have the greatest chance for an isolated tornado. The biggest threat outside of these cells will be strong, gusty winds associated with the heavier rain storms/thunderstorms (possibly). We have had a brief tornado warning already very early this morning at around 4:30am.

We will have modest helicity values and veering winds with height that will help some of the storms acquire rotation but instability will be lacking except along the very immediate coast. Most of the action should be out of the area by 6pm with lingering light rain and breezy west winds. Then the next couple of days will be quite cool, with the next chance of rain on Thursday.

Highspeed Dirt - The Song!

Continued breezy with increasing chance of ocean showers thru today. Then the potential for severe weather increases through Friday. If you don't have a weather radio, now is the time to get one. By Saturday cold air advection ensues and it will cold Saturday afternoon through Wednesday and rain free.

The B-52's - Give Me Back My Man - Rock in Rio, janeiro de 1985

This is a great song. We are expecting a few more nice days, but things start to slowly go done the El Nino hill. By Friday it all hits the fan. And from there on...don't expect to see the 70s..or even the 60s for that matter as highs. It will never get to freezing though...just plain good old long sleeve and jacket weather. Watch for the potential of SEVERE weather for a brief window of opportunity on Friday morning....we'll see! If you haven't figured it out already, I love the B52s! And the hair-dos.

Simon's Cat 'Snow Business'

We won't be seeing snow...but El Nino winter is now in Full Gear. One more day of 'weird' weather with foggy times at odd periods of the day, then we are in for warm and rain into Friday. After that..we'll see...but I do NOT like what I'm seeing...namely..COLD.

Elton John- Your sister can't twist (but she can rock'n'roll)

Warm and Sunny today with near RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (except right along the coast where a very light onshore wind will keep us right around 79-81). Orlando might reach 86)

It's A Blizzard! Somewhere But Not Here

What happened overnight?! Holy smokes!

This will be a brief one today as things 'appear' to be fairly cut and dry (the operative word) today. Yes it's cloudy and breezy but that's about the highlight of the day. Odd though, because as I type I see some small showers making landfall in the Oak Hill area; however, for the most part, today will remain dry. Any rain to fall will be in the trace amount or 0.01" category.

It actually warmed up a good bit during the dark hours but the incline will be slow today due to the ocean wind and clouds - - we still could reach about 78 though. It get's interesting overnight as the front finally returns north as a warm front, so there will be a window of opportunity (for rain) sometime between about 4am to 9am tomorrow morning. The clouds should start to break tomorrow as we are placed fully in the warm air mass behind the front with little to no trigger to induce rain. Sunday looks pretty good too for now but I'll leave that for tomorrow so there'll be something to write about.

Steady As She Goes For Today

What was that rain all about last night? We were expecting some and it finally came, but the situation was interesting so wanted to present a theory (of mine) of what happened. You can see above to images: (1) shows the 1k Relative Humidity color coded and average layer winds at the time of the rain (2) shows after the rain had dropped slowly south with time and it was over for central Brevard but still ongoing a smidge further south. (3) furthermore, we see in the last image the sharp dewpoint temperature gradient as marked in black indicating the steep gradient from dry to moist air masses.

It appears we were right on a humidity gradient from very dry to saturated at the lowest levels and they were also being converged because of the differences in the rock solid air masses ... lift was generated...just enough to create rain across the state along the steep gradient line. As it moved south so did the rain, but so did some of the 'forcing' so the rain further south wasn't nearly as strong. We got 0.52 inches at my place.

For today, looks like we are in somewhat moist post-frontal position today with no triggers for rain until maybe very late (other than a possibly detectable spritz under the particularly thicker patches of clouds)...but for the most part it will be dry. I'd expect to see partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout, but the sun will peak out now and then. What might happen after dark is the wind will veer to more easterly doing two things: (1) transporting warmer air in; and (2) creating an inverted trough along the warmer gulf stream...these two factors could easily bring rain back into the equation depending on when the wind shifts...but at this time it looks like well after dark..say about 7pm. So theoretically it could start to rain around 8:30pm. Temperatures will hold just under the 70 notch today all quads but maybe break that threshold right around 2pm. Speaking of temperature, we only got down to 62 right here but know it was a few degrees cooler at most other locales. This was a full 2 degrees warmer than suppositioned it would get down to yesterday. I'll take it.

Things get very interesting on Saturday as our abhorrent cold front becomes friendly and makes a return visit from the south as a warm front during the night. Tonight's lows will be warmer than last's as a result. convergence along the front and the inverted trough could create a possible thunderstorm or two right on the east coast in Brevard County of all places! So will see what happens with that. Also, we'll be back into the low 80s thermally wise. Sweet!

Dank is the Word - But We're The Hot Spot Too

First off, it can't go unsaid that we can't complain. Sure enough, yesterday record high temperatures were set at three official recording stations around the south half of the state as was hoped which means most places that aren't 'official' also did. I know it reached 85 on my porch. The winnder was West Palm with 90...yes 90! Vero hit something like 86 which is just one degree higher than Canaveral (at least on the porch). Other places could have been warmer...just depends. Even turned the A/C on yesterday, but might as well turn it off now as "No such luck today".

Above are included the initial position of the front and a 9am forecast position. You can see how it's slowly easing/sliding south. Also shown are the initialization and forecasts for the temperature. First thing you might notice is how Florida, home sweet home, is in the brightest of colors in the entire nation including Arizona and S. Cal. Sort of like the big, red toe of the country.

Now for today we can sum it up as 'tricky'. Seems we are getting some pretty good 'boundary layer winds' just above the surface...and the air contained therein at a very shallow layer is actually warmer than right on the ground. Sort of like the affects of a warm front in reverse. The result is low clouds, in fact overcast at the time of this typing. Will the sun be able to burn thru it is the trick. I'm thinking "no"..at least not entirely. As the front sinks closer to us the upper level clouds will increase and shunt it off from doing so. Also, there is three distinct thin bands of rain showing up on radar...and these may grow with the help of the sun. These clouds would also put a damper on the high temperatures like we felt yesterday.

So I'm going to sum it up quickly today. Believe that we are in line with yesterday's discussion. It will be cloudy and somewhat gloomy and DANK. Heck, my cat doesn't even like it out there this morning. She had to come in and "mow" at me in displeasure and shake around a bit. Then went back out since she can't help herself.

Pretty good chance of seeing the ol' raindrops falling on our heads, but not continuously, and coolish with a high around 75 (hopefully)...maybe a few degrees lower. In fact, the temperature may just barely rise at all after 9:00am if it can even rise at all before that time.

Further out has changed quite a bit from yesterday's outlook, but the one thing that is holding to form is that it won't be getting cold, although by tomorrow it will be about 15 degrees cooler across the boards than it was yesterday (for comparisons/'the feel of it' sake).

The front that is going through by mid-late morning will progress down to S. Florida through the night and the cooler air will filter in during the late afternoon and thru the night so by the morning we might be looking at 60 degrees here right along the coast. But the wind is going to swing around to an easterly component almost immediately which will moderate things nicely. Just afraid we still might see lots of mid-high level clouds...sum it up for now as tomorrow will be partly cloudy but sometimes a little more so than others with a high near 70 if we get enough sun in here. That will be the end of it (the cool)...for a while until the next system moves in which in fact is already lining up in the western Gulf. But that's another tale for another day.

-Sponsler

Take Off the Sweater - Hold On To Your Hat

Shown is the NAM (North American Model) forecast for tomorrow morning at 7AM.

As you can see a front will be knocking at the front door (if your house faces north) per what this model believes as well has the HPC. From what I can see from the other models this is what one could call a 'good fit' for the overall set up. The first thing that stands out is the lack of rain (that green stuff) before the front gets here. "Whaaaat?!!" Yup, it appears that although there could be some it will be small and isolated. It what for FROPA (frontal passage) to arrive in earnest. Could be worse, look at all the pinks and blues on there to the northeast...that's gross cold snow/ice or a mix thereof.

Instead, we wait for it to get here and then as the cooler air is moving in so does the rain. YUCK! (exclamation point). And to make matters worse once it gets here, it's here to stay. As in, all day.

Not necessarily continuously, but from the best I can tell it might as well be. But fear not, yes it's a cold front but it really won't get cold unless one considers the mid 60s cold for a low and low to mid 70s for a high. The rain should end by Friday morning...for a day. "What" again you say?

The next week at least is going to be very busy on the weather maps so hold on to your hat (reason 1)...so busy I can't elaborate much on timing issues other than to say a series of low pressures are going to pass over as this front shown will make it only as far south as South Florida. It will move north with each 'low' riding long it as a warm front, then drop back south as the low passes by as a cold front again..and this happens yet again about 4 days after that one. So conditions will be changing a lot around here after today for a solid week. And most of the time it will be cloudy but not cold...just maybe a tad cool.

Now for more urgent matters, what about today? It seems that what you see right now is what you got for the entire day. Being mostly sunny to partly cloudy and maybe we'll reach that record high referred to yesterday. In any case, it should get up to about 82-84 unless we get too many clouds at the wrong time of day...namely between 11-1pm. It will be windy too which is reason 2 for holding on to your hat. Especially watch those causeways and waterways as well as the beach. Any open area could see winds of something like 16 gusting to 25mph...at least.

Leaving deeper analysis and elaboration for coming days for tomorrow and as those future times draw nigh. Each model run has varied CONSIDERABLY as to what will eventually transpire so there's no point in stating anything more other than what already has been until things get narrowed down. Tomorrow is tough enough to have any guarantees on. Maybe it won't be all the bad rain wise, and just 'deeply cloudy and overcast'.

Warm, Soupy, Shorts and Flip-Flops For Today

While many parts of the country are contending with very cold air and snow (lots of it) about the only thing we have to contend with is morning fog (in some spots) and very muggy air with high temperatures in the low 80s today. Not bad. Thanks for the soup Wolfgang (it will be Chicken Noodle out there the next 2 days). The image above portrains the current conditions (as I type). That little yellow trough line off our coast has been generating showers all night just along the coast but that will all lift north during the mornings as our wind becomes SSE. Hard to believe I''m writing this while Christmas music plays on the stereo. LOVE IT!

And if this weren't "bad" enough, tomorrow will likely be even warmer as the wind becomes southwesterly and not off the ocean. Maybe some near record high temperatures will be in order. We will have some clouds today, especially as the fog that looks to be abundant state-wide right now starts to lift. Also, some high and mid-level clouds will start to stream overhead courtesy to the Southern Branch jetstream which is streaming overhead at about 80 knots this morning (at about 30k feet).

The only real chance of rain now appears to be limited to Wednesday and early Thursday, and even that is only a chance and not an all day rain event like we've seen in the very recent past days.

So overall, things are doing nothing but looking better and better as we enter the second week of December. And further out...say into the weeked, other than a brief cool down Friday things stay warm. Hallelujah!!

-S. Sponsler

Warmest Weather in the Country Coming Up For A Week

After so many days of the dreary "stuff" it looks like we will be warming up significantly today and for days to come. A series of fronts will be passing through with little fanfare the next 10 days in the active ingredients category other than rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The downside looks to be that we won't be having much full sunshine for a while....we'll see. The worst of days seems to be late Tuesday through most of Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday. Doesn't sound good does it? But at least it won't be getting cold. Also, the Model Output Statitics are showing at least a 30 percent chance of showers almost everyday after Tuesday afternoon....in fact, as I type some showers are streaming this way but it's still very early morning anyway. Then there's other days (perhaps Saturday or Sunday?) that might not be so great either...but again it won't be getting cold with this front either with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the mid-70s....not bad eh?

The fronts will be getting stretched out i a west to east fashion rather than diving down from the north --thanks to the current El Nino type upper level flow over the Gulf and across Central Florida. In fact, for the most part from Central Florida and points south will have the warmest temperatures in the entire country except for maybe extreme SW Arizona on a few days...but south Florida will be warmer than that area in all cases.

So far we're doing great as of 4 am with the temperature remaining right around 70 degrees, where it's been since shortly after sunset Sunday evening. Enjoy this Florida weather !