Prepare to Break Out the Sunscreen & On With the A/C

Image: The end of our full moon until next cycle

 

SYNOPSIS:  Return, anticyclonic flow around strong high pressure centered a few hundred miles east of Florida will result in a soggy, SSE flow across the state today resulting in mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy skies and SSE winds at 10-20 mph. 

 

TODAY: Rain showers are not out of the question anytime after about 2pm but they should be no worse than moderate in intensity if they happen at all.  Thunder?  I see thunderstorms in the forecast but I believe that upper level temperatures will warm too much to warrant anything more than maybe a muted rumble at most despite all the available atmospheric moisture.  The warm air aloft will temper down any chance of a good rising parcel, thus precluding good vertical cloud build ups (thunderstorms). Heating of the day should only aggravate cloud coverage...and speaking of cloud coverage and SSE winds off the ocean....... 

 

......the combination of clouds and an oceanic trajectory of the wind will keep high temperatures limited to the mid-upper 70s today...a small notch cooler than yesterday.  The day will be everything less than ideal for getting a tan today due to the clouds and sticky feel to the air to boot.  Not to mention that some light rain could fall just about anytime between the hours of 1pm -10pm.  Pinning down a more exact time for rainfall is difficult at best given the time of day it is as of this writing (5:00am) and lack of any triggering mechanisms approaching the would harbor a more conclusive forecast. Vague is the word for the day!!

 

TONIGHT: Skies will clear over night with a low around 72 along the coast (temperatures moderated close to the coast due to the gradually warming ocean waters)...in the mid-upper 60s well inland and along the west coast.

 

THE WEEKEND: Break out the sunscreen and turn on the A/C!! Partly cloudy with perhaps an isolated inland rainshower Saturday during the peak heating hours. Otherwise, much warmer with a high in the mid 80s (let's say 83 along the coast and 86 inland) Saturday and mid-upper 80s on Sunday.  Lows in the low 70s. Goodness gracious.  Winds SSE-SE at 10-15 mph.  I'm hitting the pool!

 

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Continued warm as the 500mb heights rise as this layer buckles in response to a deepening trough to the west. As a result of height rises at all levels of the atmosphere (warm air advection aloft)...rain chances will be close to nil and temperatures inland will rise into the lower 90s inland..around 91-93 range..and around 86 right on the coast east of the Banana River (the ocean will keep the immediate coast a little cooler).  Heavens to Betsy..it will be just like early summer!

 

MID WEEK NEXT WEEK: Temperatures moderate a bit as the continental flow becomes more zonal in nature and heights begin to fall.  A boundary will be in the area Tuesday  through Thursday so we can introduce a low end chance or rain or perhaps a thunderstorm at this point.  Refinement for this period will definitely be necessary in the coming days.

Chance of a Thunderstorm Tomorrow?!!

Photo: An early morning full moon

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure is centered just off the east central Florida coast early this morning before sunrise. The high will strengthen and gradually shift east during the course of the next 48 hours.  Meanwhile, the old frontal boundary that passed through the other day resides just south of the Florida straits. This boundary will begin to move north and enter Central Florida on Friday.  Steering winds aloft will continue out of the west.

 

TODAY: Just some high cirrus clouds again today with a light north wind initially but veering during the course of the day. During the majority of the day the wind will be  east to ESE...but veer even more to SE by day's end. Very pleasant with a high near 77 along the coast with the wind at 10mph or less.

 

TONIGHT: A few high clouds but otherwise uneventful with a SSE wind at 5mph or less. Low near 70 along the coast and a few degrees cooler west of the Banana River.

 

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a breezy south wind of 10-20mph.  The old boundary that is sitting over the Florida Straits will have shifted north toward Central Florida and will become the focus for a chance of showers or even a thunderstorm by mid-late afternoon. Kind of hard to believe.  It should be noted that not all the forecast models agree on the thunderstorm scenario as of last night...so we'll see what happens. No severe weather is yet expected, but an isolated thunderstorm can have a mind of its own...so it could get interesting.  High on Friday near 84 degrees.

 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND: The story for this period is going to be the very warm to hot temperatures! High close to 90 even along the coast by Monday...and with dew points in the low 70s we could be seeing heat indices approaching 100 inland....stay safe out there with the heat and sun during the weekend and into early next week folks...don't get TOO sun burnt!!

A Little Cooler and Dry Today

Image: Bird of Paradise Depicting Our weather ...PARADISE

 

I didn't post yesterday as there really isn't much to blog about. All of the active weather will be in the Corn Belt and perhaps the Central Plains states during the next 24 hours

 

SYNOPSIS: Short wave high pressure to pass over head today in the wake of a cold front that went through overnight.

Drier and cooler air is filtering in behind the front. The high pressure will stretch east/west across the state and be in the vicinity at the surface and aloft for quite a few days in the near future.

 

TODAY:  A few high cirrus clouds and very widely stratocumulus clouds. North wind to start the day will go near calm and become light from the Northeast by afternoon. High temperature to peak at about 78 degrees by 3pm but might be tempered down a bit right along the coast as the winds gain their onshore component off the ocean.  All in all a very pleasant day for sunning, fishing, or any out door activities.

 

TONIGHT: A few high cirrus clouds and a tad cool with a low in the upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland. Near calm wind by the time we're ready for a beautiful sunrise.

 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND: No rain in sight out to Day 10...at least at this time that's how it looks. High pressure will shift further east resulting in SE winds and warmer temperatures. Partly cloudy days and nights and gradually becoming more humid with time, but all in all very uneventful. ENJOY!

Storm Start to End on Sunny Note

 Violent sky a YeeHaw Junction, FL

 

A low pressure trough has passed Central Florida and is now across South Florida.

The rain associated with it has pushed south and clearing skies will soon be on the horizon

as much drier air filters into the region.  The tornado watch has long since been lifted for our area.

 

TODAY: Kaboom! We were in a Tornado Watch earlier but that has since been lifted as the storms weakened and moved south.  The highlight for today will be the wind. Expect winds by noon time to be WSW at 20 gusting to 32mph as the sky clears.  Full clearing should occur by 1-2pm...but expect that some lower level cumulus clouds will form above the still moisture laden lowest levels as soon as the sun comes out. We could reach 85 degrees today if the sun comes out soon enough...otherwise the high will be in the low 80s.

 

TONIGHT: Clear with continued elevated winds of 10 gusting to 18 mph from the WSW. Low of 70 along the coast and slightly cooler by a few degrees well inland in wind protected areas.

 

TUESDAY: A few cumulus clouds but generally sunny and continued breezy. Winds WSW at 12 gusting to 24 mph.  High of 86 degrees along the coast.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A dry cold front will go through over night. Expect a morning low under clear skies of 65 degrees with waning winds out of the north at 10-15 mph by sunrise. 

 

WEDNESDAY: Winds veering and weakening during the day as high pressure moves overhead. Maybe a few high cirrus patches but generally sunny and very pleasant with a high near 77degrees.

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Another day in the mid- 60s to start the day with light East winds by noon and a high of 76 near the coast but closer to 80 away from the ocean waters. Sunny.

 

FRIDAY: We introduce a chance of rain/thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon and warmer. More to come as the time draws nigh.

Blustery, Sky Art-ish Day Ahead

Image: Lola doesn't appear concerned over the weather to come

 

Yesterday was quite the severe weather day with 11 folks having died as a result due to tornadoes.

The same system that spawned the activity is now moving E-NE into the mid-Atlantic with a trailing cold front draped along the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will make slow progress toward Central Florida during the course of the next 24 hours.

 

TODAY: Partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy with a variety of cloud types in the sky all day.  South to SSW winds at 10 gusting to 27 mph at times and a high around 83 degrees. 

 

No rain for the most part during daylight hours.  I believe at this time any rain during the daylight hours will remain north of a line running from Brooksville to Oakhill (on the east coast).  Note, however, that this is VERY close and it will only take one shower/storm to be a notch south of this line to be in Brevard County.

Any storm that forms today could easily become severe, but I believe they will be so few and far between south of the aforementioned line that I'm leaving rain out of the daylight forecast.

 

TONIGHT: Rain/storm chances increase somewhat , particularly from midnight to 9am Monday.  Storms could become severe due to strong wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, but those again will be very few and far between, so I'm not really too concerned at this point in time.  Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a southwest wind of 10-19mph.

 

NOTE 1: Yesterday's post was pretty much a 'worse case scenario' post and, as it is, none of that worst case 'stuff' is as likely to materialize (i.e., tornadoes) as was discussed yesterday as a potential. Why?  Namely because during the time that the wind fields will be favorable for tornadoes the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be too dry to generate a storm. By the time we get enough deep layer moisture in here the winds will have become mainly unidirectional with height...although they will be quite strong aloft at the jet stream level.  Therefore, the biggest threat from storms late today and tonight I believe will be straight line winds. BUT, that's not to say a tornado isn't entirely out of the question!

 

NOTE 2: Any significant changes in this forecast will be posted as (or if) time allows

 

==================================================================

MONDAY: Lingering rain and maybe some thunder early but tapering off by 9am-11am time frame (that is, if it even rains at all!).  I've been watching this system approaching for days and hearing/seeing the forecasts...and this looks a lot like a situation where the system might poop out on us.  However, there is a fly in the ointment.  One model, the GFS, is indicating we could get some downright heavy rains between 2am-9am...so I'm not tossing the rag in the bucket quite yet.  Winds will be west at 10-20mph with a high around 79 degrees.

 

Rains should end no matter what materializes (or doesn't materialize) by noon time in the Central and Northern part of the state...but continue later in the day the further south one gets.

 

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing with a  low near 68 degrees along the coast and cooler inland.  Wind west at 5-10mph.

 

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Another weak front will pass on Wednesday with some clouds, but other than that our temperatures will be right around seasonable norms with clear to partly cloudy skies during the day and mostly clear at night.  Winds will become less than 10mph by Wednesday from variable directions.  Specifics to follow as these days approach.

*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^^*^*^*^*^*^*^
 

Deep South Nott Under the Gun...Under the BOMB!

Image: Sunrise off Harrison Ave this morning

 

A major severe weather outbreak is getting primed for explosion today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky as a strong low both surface and aloft cranks into the region. Anitcyclonic circulation around strong high pressure east of Florida combined with strong cyclonic circulation around this complex low pressure system will induce influx of a warm and very moist subtropical air mass into the region. This coupled with pockets of upper level energy in combination with strong shearing winds in speed and direction will literally crank the warm, moist air mass with explosive results. Strong updrafts in supercell thunderstorms will easily acquire rotation which will thusly result in severely strong surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. I would not be surprised to hear of at least one violent, long tracked tornado today into tonight within this region.

 

Meanwhile, closer to home:

 

TODAY:  Partly cloudy, warmish, blustery and 'sticky' with a SSE wind at 12-22 mph and a high near 80F degrees. 

 

TONIGHT: High and some midlevel clouds on the increase. Comfortable temperature with a low along the coast of 73. Sticky and goo-ey along the beach as plenty of salty particulates will be embedded and carried aloft off the ocean within the winds blowing at 10-15mph out of the SSE-S.

 

EARLY SUNDAY: High cloud overcast - broken mid-level deck-lower clouds developing within a few hours after sunrise. Salty and sticky right on the coast as particulates from the ocean will be carried aloft and combine with a very moist air mass. Winds South at 15-20mph with gusts to 28mph developing by noon.

 

**FROM THIS PORTION ON WILL REQUIRE REVISION TOMORROW MORNING FOR SURE**

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It currently appears that the first of at least two more 'outstanding' rain chances will exist from early through late afternoon as at least one of maybe more prefrontal troughs enter the region.  In fact, the strong winds nearly parallel to the coast may in and of itself produce a trough that will run up down along the Coastal Plain.. TRICKY STUFF HERE FOLKS.

 

Thus, a chance of thunderstorms within the Central portion of the state (they will have already been present just to the north overnight) anytime after 1:30pm. Some of the storms could be quite strong!! In the interim, we should warm to 84F along the coast and into the upper 80s west of US-1. The air will be moisture laden and warm, but the sun will struggle to make an appearance.  We might be in a severe thunderstorm watch or even a tornado watch by early-mid afternoon!!

 

SUNDAY NIGHT/OVERNIGHT: The second or perhaps third opportunity to receive rain will make its presence known. Again, storms could be severe and possibly produce a tornado. We might be at the southern edge of a tornado watch during this time.

 

EARLY MONDAY: Storms to have shifted south but some rain might still be lingering, otherwise cloudy with a west wind of 10-15mph.

 

REST OF MONDAY: Eventually partly cloudy by late afternoon with continued storms from around a Palm Beach-Fort Myers line continuing throughout the day. Somewhat breezy W-WNW winds and a high in the mid-upper 70s.

 

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Uneventfully pleasant, with finer details as to what will be influencing our weather at that time once Monday is over with.  For now, suffice it to say it appears another weak front will enter the picture with the only affect of producing some clouds...otherwise the wind will gradually weaken and swing around to the east midweek.

 

Whilst Pleasant Here - There Were Tornadoes Elsewhere

Photo shows the sunrise yesterday morning

 

 

It's still dark out as I type this morning's post at 5am. Yesterday was quite pleasant, and we can expect more of the same today.  The same cannot be said though for parts of Texas, Colorado, and Kansas yesterday where up to 32 tornado reports came in. One tornado near Kendall, Kansas was reportedly nearly 1 mile wide! All the while we sat here ignorant of what was transpiring on the Central and Southern Plains.

 

SYNOPSIS:  Low pressure over extreme eastern Colorado will continue to press east toward the Midwest states as high pressure remains locked just to the east of the Florida peninsula for today.

 

TODAY: Much the same as yesterday other than the wind direction. Morning low around 66F degrees along the beaches and closer to 63F west of Merritt Island.  Ironically, one of the coldest temperatures in all of Central Florida so far is at the Space Center with a reading of 59F.  It won't be quite as 'breezy' today with a SE wind around 10-15mph (yesterday the wind was northerly for the first half of the day)  and some wisps of cirrus clouds streaming overhead off and on throughout the day.  A few small patches of cumulus can also be expected mainly over the Cape and west of Merritt Island during the pre-noon hours. High along the coast again near 79F degrees and a couple mercury notches higher from Merritt Island and points west toward Orlando.

 

TONIGHT: Much the same as last night with a low in the upper 60s (cooler inland) with some thin high clouds and very light SE hint to what I would call "air movement"...that is, little as far as 'wind' goes.

 

SATURDAY: Increasing high clouds with a high all areas breaking 80F. Coasts about 81F and inland about 85F. SSE winds at 10-15mph but otherwise another nice day.  Could actually start to feel 'overly warm' in wind protected areas that receive full sunlight as well.  Severe weather will be ongoing in Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, extreme S. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana...that is...parts of the Midwest and Deep South.  We'll be hearing about supercell thunderstorms, large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes in the news.

 

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light south wind at 6-12mph under a veil of cirrus and some cirrostratus clouds. Low around 71 degrees....as the severe weather in the other cited locales continues and pushes east toward the northeast and mid-Atlantic states.

 

SUNDAY: Generally cloudy with clouds increasing even more at all levels of the atmosphere throughout the day as the system that will have generated severe weather from Louisiana to Mississippi to  Kentucky and Tennessee and all points in-between shoves east and north.  Severe weather will be overspreading parts of the northeast and mid-Atlantic on Sunday, and I'm sure we'll be hearing all about it on the news and especially on The Weather Channel.  Despite the clouds, we could still reach 85 degrees with a SW wind of 12-22mph.

 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Our turn!  Decent chance of rain and perhaps some thunderclaps and lightning bolts.  At this time I still don't think the threat of severe weather will be nearly as great for Central Florida as it will be from a Daytona-Brooksville line and points north, but it will be a close call, so it all bears watching.  Another area that might end up seeing severe weather is to our south as a separate impulse breaks off from the 'main-stream' of activity and hits from a Ft. Myers-Palm Beach County and points south.  In other words, we'll be in the inevitable 'hole' of activity.  I can easily be wrong though so STAY-TUNED.  I believe we will see 'some' rain. One can only hope for some rain as we are now entering brush fire season shortly and can use every drop we can get.

 

MONDAY: The day will start out cloudy with lingering rainshower activity in the vicinity, but conditions will improve throughout the day.  As skies clear we could again see 85 degrees before some moderately 'coolish' air enters the picture Monday night with a W-NW wind of 12-22 mph.

 

After Monday morning no 'siggy' weather to speak of for QUITE sometime.  Comfortable temperatures, light winds, and variable sky conditions should prevail for the remainder of the week.

Severely "Clear and Pleasant" Today

 Severe  -  strict in judgment, discipline, or government

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure both at the surface and aloft will dominant the weather across East Central Florida through Saturday. A few sparse cirrus clouds may whisp over the region as we will be under anticyclonic curvature aloft. At the surface, high pressure will move across the N. Gulf of Mexico and be directly overhead by Friday morning providing for prime radiational cooling.

 

TODAY: Abundant sunshine!!  Even though it's still dark out I'd bet my bottom dollar it will be clear upon rising of the sun. The temperature in Cape Canaveral as of 6am is around 67 degrees, with lower temperatures inland. Wind is calm.

 

Expect a morning low around 66 degrees with clear skies and calm winds.  Temperatures will be quick to warm with a high reaching around 80 degrees by noon time.

 

Inland areas today will reach the low 80s, whereas I'm anticipating a weak sea breeze of 5mph or less to develop along the immediate coast east of US-1 by the 1-2 pm time frame during the peak heating hours.  This should temper down the temperature a bit over the very immediate coastal communities to around 78 degrees, whereas inland areas will feel no affect of the cooler, modified oceanic air mass.

 

TONIGHT: A night with prime radiational cooling with high pressure center both at the surface and aloft directly overhead. Lows along the coast will actually be modified upward of what they could be along the A1A corridor because of close proximity to the ocean. Lows in the mid-60s along the coast and closer to 61 west of the Banana River.

 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: High pressure to shift east of the state with an east wind gradually veering to ESE then SE then eventually South by Saturday.  Highs continuing the same pattern as today but warming by as much as 5 more degrees by Saturday afternoon.  The coast will continue to feel the cooling affect produced by ocean temperatures now in the low 70s each day. 

 

We will see a continual increase in mainly high clouds and some widely scattered cumulus clouds through out the period.

 

SUNDAY: The storm system that by this time will have been widely publicized due to all the severe weather it will have produced from Colorado to Alabama will be knocking on 'heaven's"  door.  Late Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning will be the time to watch.

 

LATE SUNDAY/VERY EARLY MONDAY: I might be writing about the possibility of severe weather to nearly approach the area for this time frame!  More to come as the time draws nigh, but at this time I suspect we might dodge the 'severe' level bullet.

FCST AMEND NO. 001

This is an Amendment to today's forecast post for the period "TODAY":

Include during the remaining daylight hours of today the chance of rainshowers and Isolated thunderstorms. Early morning model runs are now indicating a second boundary which may produce enough lift combined with unquestionably enough moisture for such to manifest with the heating of the day.

 

NOTE: This was my original thinking of what would happen for today which is why I had rain chances in the post made yesterday. I amended that one to take rain chances out; however, it does not seem prudent to re-introduce rain chances back in (after I had amended to take them out).

 

We are not talking wash out conditions by any means, but I also didn't want anyone to believe that there was no way it could rain again today, namely because the possibility is still quite real.

 

Geesh...when will I learn to trust my own initial gut feelings. This is often the bane of a storm chasers existence too! 

 

Good day to all who read this and stay dry.

 

"We Heard Thunder...."

Images: Depict the thunderstorm from very early this morning from a variety of perspectives as well as show the location of the small surface low pressure area and a forecast plat from the RUC model

"I heard thunder, but there's no rain....this kind of thunder break wall on window pane" - The Prodigy

Interesting mini-mini-event early this morning as a thunderstorm prompted a special weather statement regarding the concern for funnel clouds which occurred mainly between 4-4:30 a.m. in the Viera area. The possibility for thunder was mentioned yesterday, so this did not come as a total surprise. Otherwise, most areas received what appears to be about 1/4" of rain or thereabouts early this Wednesday morning.

SYNOPSIS: Axis of low pressure and small surface low over east central Florida will all push east today as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico quickly builds east on its heals across the region late this morning into the afternoon hours

TODAY: Cloudiness and possibility a weak patch of a sprinkle will pass overhead during the remainder of the predawn hours and up until nearly noon time. Winds will be light initially but eventually become west right about the time clearing will commence. Because of the early cloudiness some of our heating of the day will be hampered but no entirely. Thus, we can expect a high much like it's been in previous days...or actually warmer! Why? Because we will not have a sea breeze today. YEAH! Thus, we should see just about 80 degrees today under gradually clearing skies. By sunset there will be only a few scrapplings in the sky.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low in the mid 60s along the coast and closer to 60 working west of I-95.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Clear to partly cloudy with a high around 80-84 degrees with light winds. Coolest close to the Atlantic waters. Lows gradually warming and approaching 70 right along the coast and mid 60s well inland.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Okay, time to get flaky again. Another system will be approaching the area...but I think we'll eke out Sunday (and thus the weekend) for the most part before any rain hits. The next system may introduce yet again a chance of the wet stuff...but the ingredients for Monday and Tuesday are just now beginning to impact the U.S. West Coast, so let's leave that for a better time when a possibly more affirmative assertion as to it effects can be determined.

For now, suffice it to say it looks like we could get some rain on Monday; however, not expecting a big impact to temperatures. OH...and talking about temperatures....we should warm up significantly over the weekend into Monday. In fact, the coast could see 87 degrees by Monday!

AMENDMENT: TO 4/20/10 Post

NOTE: the rain conditions cited for Wednesday in the previous post are valid only through 8am. After that point rain chances will be close to zero. Everything else in the forecast post remains unchanged. In other words, for the majority of Wednesday there is close to no chance of rain after sunrise.

First Vestiges of Summer

Image: A Distant Florida thunderstorm looks like a large mountain of billowing cotton

The technical term for the cloud type that describes a thunderstorm is "cumulonimbus" in the most general way. There exists a variety of adjectives to this, but we'll leave it simple enough. I bring this up because the first vestiges of summer will be experienced the rest of the week ahead. But don't be surprised to see such a pattern be dismissed, as our not so official June 1/first day of summer is still far enough away that we could still see a significant stray from this pattern to occur i[ until mid-May.

SYNOPSIS: A short-wave trough will pass by to the north later this afternoon and evening. An appendant axis of lower pressure will exist with this system down the spine of the state. The result will be another day of inland shower and thunderstorm activity as was the case yesterday. Yet another one will pass on Wednesday. After these systems have passed strong high pressure will build north out of the Gulf of Mexico for the following several days which will exert its influence across the state through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

TODAY: A day very similar to yesterday will reign supreme with abundant sunshine for most of the day with no significant cloud coverage. Skies will be partly cloudy with a high along the immediate coast in the mid-70s but a good 5 degrees plus warmer once one gets west of US-1. I'm expecting that by late in the afternoon there could be a decent coverage of thunderstorm activity inland. I talked with someone from the Orlando area yesterday who stated that they experienced almost constant lightning in a storm they had there, if you can believe it.

Despite the fact that these storms will exist they will have an awful time trying to penetrate the modified oceanic air mass along the coast. Therefore, the coastal communities should be spared the wrath and only see an increase in clouds very late in the afternoon and into the evening with perhaps a driplet or two falling from the heavens upon our land (east of I-95).

All poetic license aside, expect that yesterday layed the blue print for today's weather. That is to say...photocopy the days.

WEDNESDAY: Actually, despite what I've been seeing/hearing over the media waves, I'm not so sure we will remain dry. Another short-wave trough (disturbance) will pass to the north but this one appears to be stronger.

With that said, the coastal communities might also be shared the wealth of the wet stuff on Wednesday with a thunderstorm or rain shower much more of a distinct possibility. Even so, if the coast does get in on the act one will still have to be in the right spot (or wrong spot depending on how one looks at it) to require the rain slicker.

In other words, there's a little better chance that the areas east of I-95 will see some rain and some of the boisterous loud bangers by late afternoon through the evening.

In fact, one of the models is indicating a healthy coverage up and down the east coast tomorrow by late afternoon lasting into the evening as it moves from west to east and out to sea.

But be not dismayed, because after Wednesday it will be a while before we see rain.

THURSDAY (and BEYOND): Despite what happens on Wednesday, if anything, we will start to see height rises in the 500mb layer which will result in a slow warming trend. Indeed, each day will be progressively warmer from Thursday through at least Sunday.

In fact, by Sunday the beaches could experience 85 degrees and areas west of I-95 will be looking at the big 9-0 on the old mercury (assuming one is not looking at a digital thermometer).

The next system to reach the state with any impact now appears to occur on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that get extended yet further out into the future if ever.

SUMMARY: Chance of rain on the coast Wednesday then warmer and dry into the weekend.

A Tale of Two Lows

Images: Forecasted system locations at 2pm from the NAM model and last nights satellite image which I just thought looked pretty cool.

Okay, so today might not be a total washout as expected, but the rains aren't over yet. You can see from the image that we still have two lows and a front in the afternoon. I believe that as the sun rises some of the clouds over us will break up some to mostly cloudy and maybe even partly cloudy conditions. But with heating of the day and a little instability, we could stand a chance to hear thunder today. Tomorrow will be similar. If we actaully get a strong thunderstorm today it could produce very small hail, but at this point even thunder is a big stretch.

THIS MORNING: Cloudy at first then breaking up a bit by 10:30am. Wind ENE to NE at 3-9 mph.

LATER TODAY: Rain showers and thundershowers to form across the state. Believe your best chance to hear thunder will be between 2-9pm. Rains ending late. I have to say there's a better than average chance we will get wet along the East Coast of Florida just about anywhere. High temperature around 76 with ENE winds at 10-18mph.

TUESDAY: Pretty much a carbon copy of what today will bring.

FURTHER OUT: With too much unsurety...and being that this is only an unofficial blog, I think I can say with some confidence that no one else truly knows what Wednesday will bring. But for the most part it appears our rain/thunderstorm activity will be diurnally driven. And that could be anytime in the afternoon, mainly after 3pm for folks near the coasts - earlier inland.

Diffuse Day to be Delivered

Image: An early morning KSC sounding

Weak and hard to determine frontal boundary overhead today will reign supreme. This boundary so to speak will be with us for another day or so, but weak convergence and little in instability or shear will generate mostly an unorganized pattern of clouds and areas of precipitation. This pattern will be with us for another day or so until something decides to make up its mind.

TODAY: It's hard to find the fronts position, but it seems to be laying directly across Central Florida. There is little activity along it this morning, but given the moderate moisture content we'll go for a cloudy day all day with a pretty decent chance of rainshowers at any time. Mostly by late afternoon right after peak heating and into the night Winds variable and light with a high in the mid-upper 70s.

TONIGHT/MONDAY: Low pressure in the Gulf to track across S. Florida will increase our chances of rain with a low along the coast around 70 and a high in the mid-upper 70s.

TUESDAY: Things start to move out with improving ever so slowly conditions

BEYOND: Very hard to say at this point but will go with a slight chance of showers at anytime but mostly during the peak heating hours of 12pm -- 5pm

Rainy Days and Mondays Always Get.....

(Images include the sunrise and my cat Lola)

Looks like another beautiful day today in prelude of things to come for a time the next day or so. Have you planned your storm chasing vacation yet!?

TODAY: Very similar to yesterday with scattered clouds and some filtered sunshine at times, but nothing to terribly bad. High again along the coast should reach near 79 with a low of 69 right along the coast with a SE wind around 10-15mph. Sort of like it should be this time of year in other words.

TONIGHT: Some increasing clouds with a low around 70 and south winds of about 5-9 mph. The rain clouds will be formulating over South Florida by now for sure.

EARLY SUNDAY: A SW wind around 10-20 mph with increasing clouds throughout the day. A cold front will be very near by, but that's not our player. That is going to be a low pressure system crossing the southern part of the state. Rain will be looming just to our south all day.

LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain will be knocking on the door right before sunset. But over night it should be moving in...could see up to 1/2 inch or so in some locales.

MONDAY: Rain off and on all day. The big old question will be if we get to hear thunder. It's been just TOO long for that...we deserve a break. Sure wish we could hear some of that good old rock and roll.

TUESDAY MORNING: Rain ending, if not all ready by sunrise. So plan your morning beach walks accordingly. A cooler day than most of recent days with gradual clearing throughout the day and NE-E winds.

REST OF THE WEEK: Looks like nice days with variable clouds and a chance of afternoon showers in the afternoons. Hate to sound vague, but this period of time is a "low confidence" forecast for the finer details of life.

Most Clear and Pleasant Day in Store

Images: Showing high pressure nearly overhead today on Joan Rivers

Today will be a much nicer day than many of late with decreasing easterly winds and plenty of sunshine. In fact, tomorrow looks to be of similar nature with the only real chance of rain appearing as of now to be around later Sunday...when in fact a weak cold front will be getting ready to pass thru. We might as well throw in a chance of thunder on that day...so keep one's eyes to the sky by noon time on Sunday.

Saturday: A few more clouds with winds shifting to southeast at about 10 mph, but mostly sunny as well.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with SW winds initially and rain chances increasing into the afternoon.

Later Sunday: Mostly cloud with winds shifting to ENE at 10mph.

The days after look to be mostly dry but a little cooler with NE winds at 10-18mph. A very small chance of rain can't be ignored though of Tuesday, especially right along the east coast.

Are YOU A/C Ready?

Images: Variety due to lack of siggy weather.....(non-significant)

Once Again..not much to speak of. A slow warming trend to continue..with coastal temps peaking around 77 degrees although I think we'll break 80 on Thursday as a front moves into the area. Reason being, we will lose the seabreeze and have a Southwest wind around 20 mph. I would not be surprised if we befoggle the forecast models and hit 83 degrees by 6pm. HIT THE POOL folks :-) I actually turned the A/C on for about 1 hour earlier today.

A very slight chance of rain showers on Friday..but changes for real are gradually continuing. Notice how it's not getting cold any more? Just sort of "all of a sudden".......

In general, lows along the coast will be in the upper 60s except Saturday and Sunday..low to mid 60s. Clouds on the increase beginning Wednesday as more mid-upper level moisture works into the state. But other than in increase in clouds mid week..and a brief period of cooler temps (note: not very cool or cold though)...we will maintain the typical "dry for this time of year" regime.

Boring to the hilt. Have to get out to the Plains to see some beautifully structuterd works of God..the storms of the Great Plains are truly a beautiful thing.

Happy Easter

 

 

A Glorious Easter To All

Image: Mammatocumulus Clouds over Cape Canaveral at Sunset

In recognition of the day, this post will be very brief.

It looks like we stand a chance of same rain/thundershowers come late Thursday through the first half of Friday. Other than that period, the weather across east Central Florida will remain benignly pleasant. Lows in the mid-upper 60s along the coast (lower 60s away from the coast)..and highs in the mid-upper 70s and approaching 80 along the coast...and low 80s inland. In essence, we'll be right where we should be.

As for the rain on Thursday and Friday. It won't be a "rain out", if indeed it even rains at all. We will be on the tail end of a storm system that could create some significantly severe weather from Missouri and Iowa and points east to the Atlantic Coast starting Monday. The front will go through here early Friday..and once it passes we'll be back to status quo until the next weekend..at least.

Enjoy, and Happy Glorious...outstanding Easter.

Surf Contest a Money Making Scheme!

Nothing to say. Multi-deep layer high pressure rules the roost over peninsular Florida for MANY days to come. What this does is block storm systems from impinging upon the region. Seeing how it rules the roost..it could lay some eggs that will create possibly some light fog on some mornings. Wanna go surfing? WHAT A JOKE. A surf contest this weekend with waves a big 6 inches high. So sad. They should know better than to schedule a surf contest in early April. The absolute WORST time to have one...other than maybe July....Oh so sad.

But hey. traffic is insane..so hand it to those who want to make money during spring break.

-Steve

Picture Perfect Day in Store

IMAGE: My hero on the right

This will be a brief post today...and maybe my last for a while. Weather is so benign that I can sum it up in one small paragraph for almost a week.

NICE! Lows in the mid-60s and highs in the mid-upper 70s along the coast and low 80s inland. Clear skies and light east wind in the afternoon. No changes until maybe Thursday time frame...and even that change looks to be insignif. attm (at this time).

Ditto Days Ahead

Image: Ridge of high pressure reflected at the surface as shown in this image

Weather pattern to change very little for a week.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure at the surface and aloft over the far eastern GOM will drift slowly east and across the state through the weekend. Low pressure systems and cold fronts will be deflected to the northeast over the dome of persistant high pressure. Thank goodness it's not the middle of summer, because if it were we''d be baking hot!!

THE NEXT 6 DAYS: Mostly clear with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs initially in the mid 70s to low 80s inland. The low temperatures will warm a few degrees whereas the highs will remain mostly just below 80 along the coast and up to the mid 80s by the weekend and into next week.

The next front to even remotely affect the peninsula portion of the state is slated for next Thursday...however, it seems doubtful that even that scenario will materialize. We'll just have to watch and see. At this point, even if it does affect us it's punch would be brief and weak.

For the fair weather friends, this next entire week was tailored made just for you >: )