Increasing Thunder Chances THrough Labor Day Weekend

Slight Increase in Rain Showers and Thunder Especially
Interior North Central and North Florida west of the Suwannee River Valley Basin
And Interior South Central Along a Mid-Level Moisture 'axis'

TODAY: An upper low which has been near South Florida Continues to meander in that area. An interesting cluster of rain and some thunderstorm activity has been in progress since before sunrise, which originally started out on the north side of Cuba and has managed to lift north to the current position visible in the image above in the bottom right hand corner. It will be interesting to see if this anomaly amounts to anything more toward the East Side late today or tonight, although there are no indications that it will in the models.

Elsewhere, an axis of low pressure across across Central is showing signs of instigating some convergence on visible satellite imagery along and south of it but is not expected to move much more today, hence interior activity more likely today than the past few days. The other region to watch will be near the Suwannee River Valley basin toward the Ocala Area and into Lake County south and east toward the Northern Orange County far Volusia (west) region. Otherwise some mid afternoon cloud decks could start to manifest and cloud up the east coast regions in varying degrees to scant to nearly cloudy, especially by later today.

WEEKEND: The Low pressure troughs shown above will lift a little further north as a ridge axis aloft builds in behind them and into South Florida. This should help to increase the SW to NE steering flow just a bit more but with sea breeze convergence activity still at play .  Moisture south of those trough axis' will increase toward the Dead Central, or Canaveral to Brooksville line, if not I-4 by Sunday or Monday, and as a result, more mid-late day activity into the early - mid evenings is possible. Colder air aloft associated with the upper low could 'spark' off some stronger storms on Saturday and Sunday interior of the South Half of the state with an eastward drift at 7-11 mph. Net effect will mean a better chance of rain toward the desert regions, a.k.a. Barrier Islands, if not a better chance of over cast sky cover late each day.

MONDAY: The story though so far Labor Day seems to be the best chance of rain showers of all the next upcoming days with continued chances into Tuesday between another possible pattern shift.

"Happy Labor Day...and..."

TROPICS: Guidance continues to show a few tropical wave like formations as steering again starts to come off the ocean as has been the case most of August. But increased moisture could pose for a better chance of oceanic to onshore showers but this is still too far out in time to gander or muse upon heavily. Otherwise, a possible closed low or two is not out of the question, mostly off out at sea. The other things to watch for will be a frontal boundary and the first 'cool shot of fall' coming in right on cue from Labor Day to mid-week next week, which will most affect the North Central U.S. and east to the Great Lakes  south toward the Mason Dixon line (while the immediate East U.S. coast toward NYC and south might eke out on the 'worst of it'...meaning lows into the upper 40Fs to lowers 50Fs look possible in the aforementioned more northern areas of that most impacted area). Florida will remain south of the boundary though, and as it appears will behave more like a Florida  August than August had .

..don't get too stirred up over it.

"Front" Clears Central, Pattern Shift Late Week at Last

"Twin Towers" - Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach, Florida
Two Thunderstorms Waltz Ashore in Dance

TODAY: Weak surface front has snuck through overnight which persisted near North and North Central during the weekend making for some odd summer weather, more like a hint of a fall pattern from the wind directions at times. But, that boundary managed to become embedded with the large scale High Pressure Circulation centered near and over the Central U.S.and will lose identity in the next 48 hours. Higher in the atmosphere, the higher pressure is further east and norht. It will gradually flatten and retrograde  beginning around Wednesday.  

Today overall won't seem all that different than the past two days nor will the next day or two seem all that different, but changes are in the works most and first notably on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: Through Tuesday might be a bit like today, timing of moisture pockets and where it will or will not rain is a guess. Wednesday a ridge axis will lie across Central resulting in very light winds at multiple atmospheric levels is anticipated as of this morning. 

The issue for rainfall might be lack of moisture for a period of time, but some isolated earlier day showers near the coast are always possible especially as the sea breeze begins to emerge toward the coast and work inland of the east coast .

THURSDAY: Similar to Wednesday with varying amounts of moisture available for the capacity of shower and thunder generation. So far, guidance is showing there will again be some moisture lacking; only anticipate isolated activity.

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Ridge axis by two major player models is shown to drop toward South Florida with a SW to WSW steering..that is to say..storm motion toward the east, but very slow. Sea breeze convergence and more moisture will increase the capacity for storm generation this weekend through Monday if not longer over the interior with a slant toward the more needed east coast. The west coast has been getting the focus for late day storms up until yesterday when cloud cover put the lid on storm generation for the most part.

MONDAY and BEYOND: Time frame is too far out for reliability, but the wind fields still show good sea breeze convergence days. Two major players models had been showing some big tropical activity to spark up in the mid southern Atlantic to approach the U.S for a few days, but over night that suddenly vanished. Doesn't really mean anything though. We are approaching the most active tropical time of the Tropical Storm Season.

"Blue Button/ Capped Jellyfish have been making an appearance this summer"

"Morning Glow and Rain Bow"

Another Shot At Showers/Storms Today Mainly Mid-Late Afternoon East Side

As Usual, Depiction Above is a Rough Guesstimate of "Most Seemingly Likely' Locations and types of rainfall activity today. Orange being 'thunder' and Red being "Strong" activity 

TODAY: The going trend per visible satellite imagery such as the one shown above has been for clearing skies where noted. Greatest instability is south where heating has been most prolonged since sunrise, but some of that instability should work north in the next few hours. Steering today above the sea breeze height at this time appears to have a better eastward push (toward the east coast) than yesterday, mainly north of Vero Beach. 

There is a very unfavorable area for storms or even showers at the 12pm hour across South Central so much of the region there as far north as Melbourne if not further north will likely have to 'wait it out' until mid-late afternoon to see if this 'unfavorable for storms' air mass fills in, but for now will surmise that it will but with activity a bit more isolated and more inland as the east coast sea breeze should make better inland advances from near Ft Pierce and south where mid level SW winds are almost non-exist to steer activity back to the east. 

Otherwise, like the past two days , the stronger storms could be near NE Florida closer to the old stationary front which will be lifting out from South Georgia (retrograding north) as the Deep Layer Mean (DLM) High Pressure Atlantic Ridge Axis finds its way into Central Florida late tomorrow then north of the area by Sunday.  

BEYOND: Chance of storms again tomorrow but away from the coast from Southern Volusia and south (more inland toward the turnpike working to the west coast) but nearer the coast from I-4 and north. By Sunday this will be the case even more so with thunder confined toward Rte 27/Lake County and maybe western Orange County (e.g.).  Ocean showers at some point along the line mostly in the first half of the days ahead east side in sporadic fashion as pockets of deep Atlantic Atmospheric Moisture source region sloshes ashore. This will be the continuing trend at least into the last few days of August. 

Interior late Thunder Mainly with a few nearer the Coasts

Generalize Areas of Rain and THunder Shown above
(best guess as of 11AM) Mostly interior portions

TODAY: Deeper Moisture working from South Florida as Forecast. Greatest instability this hour is over interior North and North Central Florida. East Coast Sea Breeze expected to make a greater inland penetration than previously surmised,  at least per short term model guidance.

As a result, since steering toward the east is also weaker and more from the south rather than from the west, strongest activity today appears will be as a result of east/west coast sea breeze handshakes combined with outflow boundaries from earlier showers and some thunder that form prior to the actual meeting time. Some showers could form close to the coast earlier, but the strongest storms it now appears will mainly be west of , or near, I-95 toward the Turnpike and along I-4.

Strongest storms expect over Orange, Polk, Osceola and  west of I-95 and near to west of the Suwannee River Valley Basin as well as along or near the Florida Turnpike as a result of this surmised greater inland push of the east coast sea breeze. Cloud cover should spread over most areas once again later today.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Again, it appears cloud cover 'might' result in more showers or simply cloud cover rather than thunderstorms (in general) although some areas will see thunder, seemingly so most likely across North Florida/ Panhandle region closer to the stationary front depicted in yesterday's post. One or both of these days could hold to this, but again..more will be revealed when tomorrow dawns. 

BEYOND: It continues to appear the deeper easterlies will set up, but somewhat moist. Monday and Tuesday (Sunday as well) will harvest thunder well inland  and toward the west coast ; going later into the week a better chance of ocean east coast showers or rains but isolated in manner. West coast sea breeze might have too difficult a time to result in storms on that side of the state as well beyond Tuesday. This is the trend that is then advertised at this point to continue through to the end of the month in various forms contingent upon easterly moisture surges.  

Increased Thunder Chances Today, More So Thursday & Friday

Stationary Frontal Boundary located as shown above late today in response to an upper level trough to the North of Florida has finally shunted the west periphery of Atlantic high pressure offshore which was partly responsible for the past few days for the 'mostly dry conditions' around the state by August standards, but today will be a different story

TODAY: Last post was around August 4th at which time it was noted that the next best chance of true rains might not be until after the first full two weeks of August. Today is the 14th and tomorrow looks to be that day of higher rain chances as it so happens, yet there is some chance of rain today over more areas than there has been for quite some time.

Today is a bit of a transition day with better moisture being able to manifest with retreat of high pressure and filling in of atmospheric moisture which has plagued the state with unusually dry air by August standards. Regardless, another very warm day in store prior to the rains and/or cloud cover.  Steering is from the west, in general, but not strong enough to overcome a respectable sea breeze east coast front late today at the low levels. Depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze penetrates will determine where some of the strongest activity will reside with a guess shown as noted below.

South Florida at this time is showing up on short fused guidance to be quite dry to support storms, but suspect that since almost all guidance is showing precipitation down that way, that very late day to early evening if not mid evening activity might end up being a bit on the stronger side should it manifest there. Downdraft CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and rather high Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) will likely preclude especially strong storms if any to occur until very late today a few hours after peak heating hours which will be fairly coincident with any sea breeze collisions especially toward or just east of Orlando in the Sanford to West Daytona Area possibly into the Mims and North Titusville area, seeing Deland..with other activity working up and down I-95 in general. 

Motion toward the east around 10 mph not including propagation along any outflow or Lake boundaries will likely mean that storm strength will dwindle toward US1 and east if not further west than that, but much will depend on how far inland the sea breeze manages to squeak into the interior especially south of I-4 and more so toward 528 and the West Brevard border swamps . 

Activity more likely to be closer to the coast nearer the I-4 and north, with some cloudy skies developing toward sunset or shortly thereafter coast side, if not some light rains into dark as storm debris drifts over head.  Strongest activity could have some localized heavy rain and as usual vivid lightning.

*Special Note: It's been awhile since many areas have seen rain so extra driving caution advised due to  that excessive oils accumulating on road tops can make them more "Slip-n-Slidier' than usual.

Only general areas are shown really, but all guidance agrees there will be some coverage today. Also noting, the west coast sea breeze can be seen in the above image from Tampa and North where the green line is drawn, parading east ward as of 1pm today

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday appears might be the most dynamic day thunderstorm speaking as much deeper moisture is advected northward from South Florida overnight tonight into afternoon Thursday toward about the Central Dividing Line of Canaveral west to north Tampa Bay. The bigger trick for Thursday and more so Friday will be lingering or increased mid to upper level cloud cover (if any)  which could shut down the "Convection Oven" resulting in more cloud cover rather than rainfall as oft occurs when precipitable water values exceed 2.00" which is being shown to occur per the latest GFS model run.

 Otherwise, sea breeze convergence more toward the east side with eastward motion would put the stamp on better rain chances for even the areas along and east of US1 to the beaches (in the absence of mostly cloudy sky cover mid morning through mid afternoon time frame).

SATURDAY: Still a pretty good chance of rains but mostly along and west of I-95 except near and north of the I-4 as high pressure starts to work back in, more so even on Sunday.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND  : Looks like another 'long duration doldrums August' dry spell for the beaches of the Atlantic other than some possible periods of ocean showers as deep layer easterlies set up, steering any possibly thunder activity well away form the east coast, and continuing possibly as such through the remainder of the month.

Showers Storms Again Today/Monday

"Dinner Time, Dearies!"
Late Afternoon Cape Canaveral Storm, Florida

YESTERDAY: Remnant vorticity and weak low level circulation associated with post-Dorian whose explorations are over with now that the storm is being absorbed into a continental trough and associated surface 'cold' front was partially responsible for yesterday's weather pattern. That front will enter into North and Central Florida Monday and Monday evening. 

Meanwhile, a trailing boundary at the surface appeared yesterday per satellite imagery early in the day to lie across Central Florida with a mid level trough more toward offshore Central and into Southeast and South Central. The result was some rain in both areas but for different reasons and at different times (in general).

Some observers noted 'funnel cloud' like formations with some turning however no official 'funnel cloud' reports that I've seen ever came in...so perhaps they were 'scuddels" if not near 'scudnadoes' (funnel looking scud clouds).

"Honey, You better come take a look at this"
Funnel Scud Like Formation from leading edge of  "arcus ingestus"

Suspicious Cloud Activity - Cape Canaveral Mid-Afternoon

TODAY: Tropical remnants of "Dorian"are out of the picture. Light westerly to WSW low level flow curves to west to NW to even NE   at Jet Stream level. Although we might not see a sea breeze but very close toward the coast, there is weak cyclonic curvature with plenty of early day clear skies to let instability get started. Suspect it might end up being a rather earlier start again somewhere near to just south of I-4 and then working generally  east and south with time. P.S. - 'arcus ingestus' is not a defined cloud type.

It gets very tricky toward South Florida as anvil tops today will shear South and West and might stabilize much of SW and/or South Florida.  Otherwise, multiple rounds of light showers could occur about anywhere especially south of I/4 toward Eastern Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie County and in from the coast toward the North South Central Peninsular Line .  

Could be some stronger storms as well, due to wind gusts near 50-55mph (generally sub severe) as the morning Mesoscale analysis data shows plenty of downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). This being a sign of some dry air aloft, can hold off activity altogether, but the morning KSC sounding shows that showers could form as the dryer air appears to be above 15,000 ft. Earlier activity thus might mainly be showers with thunder more likely to manifest around mid-afternoon once convergence from outflows can be established , but not 'necessarily' so.  

MONDAY: Frontal Boundary to sink into Central. If activity gets started too early across North Florida than anvil winds could overspread cloud thunderstorm tops south across the Peninsula, but at this time the GFS is showing that won't be too much of an issue, calling for even greater rainfall potential than today.

BEYOND: Frontal boundary washes out in far Southeast Florida going into late Tuesday, and mid level trough "MIGHT" return back north late week.  Yes, that means a COLD FRONT will be crossing Central Florida in August. Good thing it's August though, it will mean little more than a wind shift and take the edge off the 90Fs.

Otherwise, other than some ocean showers early day, much of the east coast might remain dry for an 'extended time frame' perhaps until after the 2nd full week of August is over. Most activity then will be more toward the west half of the state, with SW Florida being active in particular on Tuesday afternoon.