Much Better Outlook For The Hoiday Weekend

Happy Thanksgivings To Come From and To  You Today and Every Day.

TODAY: Beautiful day in store but a bit cool after cold temperatures this morning statewide. Wind to gradually shift to the NNE then NE and ENE by tonight with some shallow low topped stratocumulus clouds moving ashore mostly along and east of I-95 then dissolving across the drier air across the land-mass

Proclamation of Thanks Giving by Abraham Lincoln is available online to read

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind becoming easterly to ENE and quite light over night to early morning. Drainage northerly flow inland. Lows at the coast on Friday will be nearly 15F degrees warmer than this morning as a result but still very cool (but not as cold) inland. Afternoon highs in the 70Fs after today through the weekend most areas. Chance of traceable amounts of rain sprits mainly along or east of I95 (if any) but a measurable amount could occur mostly north of the Cape to JAX, but remain isolated in nature.

SUNDAY: Continued quite pleasant other than some annoying lower clouds that are possible but full out 'rain' is unlikely at most. Cloud decks could become rather extensive in the mid or late day hours and perhaps close to the coast around sunrise hours as well.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: A low pressure area it seems will form east of the state causing the wind to back toward the NNW-N on the back side of its circulation, again resulting in a much cooler morning statewide Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with a cooler day all day Tuesday with highs perhaps not quite reach 70F but it is not looking like it will be as cold statewide as this morning. 
No other cold spells are foreseen so far going into the second week of December as it stands in the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs , though some rain chances might enter the picture more solidly for North and maybe Central Florida by NEXT weekend.

Chance of Severe Weather Continues Today/Tonight

Watching the Area mainly in between the red arrows, but anywhere really between the orange (if not further South) will need to be watched and carefully scrutinized as the situation develops (or doesn't) during the day today. See Note ***

TODAY: Not much change really from previous post. Low pressure system is taking shape south of the Louisiana coast and is forecast to lift NE ward during the next 24 hours and accelerate up the U.S. East Coast. For Florida, SE winds today to remain quite breezy trending more toward the SSE-S and eventually SSW-SW overnight tonight.  Upper level trough to the jet stream level approaches the Florida West Coast toward midnight which should abet in mid-level lift in the presence of increasing divergence through the upper levels,  and given the overnight areas of interest it appears will be most greatly affected,  this post focused mostly on mid-level dynamics since low level instability is weak during the overnight hours.

Otherwise, possible rainshowers and maybe a clap of thunder from mid afternoon toward late afternoon Central to north Central Florida during peak instability hours. 

(***NOTE: There is not expected too much if any instability north of I-4, though a word of caution not shown in this graphic, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining the panhandle/big bend to Northwest Florida more favorably for severe weather as of this early hour of the day which would likely occur much earlier than that over Central or South Florida, but there are a few uncertainties remaining. This post is not showing that area due to lack of instability during daylight hours as rain is already moving into that area before sunrise.)

TONIGHT: November 27th.:  Possibly two rounds of 'weather' but of what nature that weather will harvest remains an unknown. Will be watching for possibly a weak circulation forming near the Loop Current where the greatest instability will reside due to greater low level instability in the vicinity of the warmer Gulf Waters although models are not picking up on any such event to occur at this time. 

Per this image, best Upper Level Divergence will be approaching at and after 1AM coincident with the potential for a low level jet to form in the region that will be most unstable during daylight hours today but will have lost much of that instability after dark.

Most activity might remain in the mid-levels and not even be realized at ground level (if any does exist at all). The overall Severe Threat appears to be isolated at best from  small , fast moving storm cells.

Given the high amount of Bulk Shear and storm relative helicity indicators per the Mesoscale Analysis page looming over the Gulf waters and as this image shows above with the red/blue wind barb couplets to approach (although suspect they won't be as perpendicular to each other over night tonight)...if an overnight low level jet develops there could be rotating storms producing strong surface winds of severe strength with embedded   tornado or two which would move quite rapidly and be 'in and out' with little to no warning. So far, the most hazardous time frame appears to be from around 11pm toward the west side or a bit later through around 6AM to 7Am. Latest guidance has this storm system clearing the east coast a bit more rapidly than previous model runs.

WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING: Not much change in thinking from previous post. Coldest morning so far Thanksgiving morning with lows from the Canaveral area and south east of US 1 in the lower 50Fs to near 50F falling rapidly toward the Upper 30Fs to Lower 40Fs in the far NW Orlando proper area toward Clermont  Lake County and up the interior toward Ocala and north Florida. Warmest zone along and east of US1 and even warmer along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral South to Miami and through the Keys.

Possible Severe Storms Early Wednesday - Coldest Yet Thanksgiving Morning

A WARM FRONT from the surface to 2000 foot Above Ground Level (AGL) will lift north in advance of a developing surface low and deep upper level trough approaching from the west/Northern Gulf tonight.
Most likely showers across Eastern South Florida will manifest and work northward mainly east of I-95 overnight and up the east coast

TODAY: Continued breezy, especially at the beaches as winds become more easterly during the latter portions of the day. Mostly cloudy but could see more cloud breaks than yesterday, though surface heating from any breaks (if any) could result in regeneration of cloud cover once again.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY:  (Image above). A low pressure system will be developing toward I-10 of Louisiana at the coast and will move east and north over the next 48-72 hours. High pressure will move further east of Florida and the eastern U.S. as the deep upper full latitudinal upper level trough shifts east from the South Central Plains region. 

Surface wind over Florida will become more easterly late today and then SE-SSE late tonight as a warm front from the surface to 2000 ft and eventually 5000 feet lifts north. The result of convergence along the coast with the veering surface winds and colder air mixing out could result in measurable rainfall mainly along and east of I-95 over night tonight from south to north reaching the Central zones well after midnight  which 'could' last off and on until the warmer air associated with the mid-level warm front fully reaches Central toward late morning; clearing of the rain from south to north.

Areas currently watching for OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH PRE-SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A PRELIMINARY SPECULATION 

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Could become partly cloudy at times but continued breezy this day with wind now from the SE-SSE and slowly becoming more southerly with time. Warmer though, even if it becomes mostly cloudy. Could see a prolonged rain free period though some showers near the coast are still possible after mid afternoon especially with any destabilization of the atmosphere. Upper trough will be approaching, but in this entire weather situation to unfold the lower levels of the atmosphere will not be phasing with the upper level trough quite in sync enough to warrant a full blown severe weather event outcry for Florida as it stands now (per se). Thus, Tuesday might be a nicer day as it will be warmer from noon onward but with a continued chance of some showers and cloud coverage. 

OVERNIGHT TUESDAY - EARLY WEDNESDAY: This is the period to be on some level of weather awareness which unfortunately will be while people are asleep (most likely) from around 1AM through 8AM, beginning toward the West side of the state but potentially rapidly filling in across the remainder of the peninsula as the Upper Level Jet stream associated with the leading edge of the upper trough approaches, resulting in strong upper level divergence and increasing bulk shear through the mid levels. By this time Florida will have been under sufficient southerly flow for some minimal destabilization  with the best 'intersect of instability and wind support' to occur over East Central Florida toward I-4 south toward NE Lake Okeechobee after 4AM. 

See below image showing the 'forecast based on the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model of 700mb winds', or around those winds at 10,000 feet at 1AM which will be moving in on the peninsula from the west. Jet stream level winds are much stronger and will be increasing the divergence aspect abetting lift up through the mid-levels heading toward 3AM based on this model (only).

10,000 foot level winds could be transported toward ground level in the event that tall rain showers or thunderstorms can develop, resulting in severe category surface winds in downpours , should they develop, or even a brief tornado might manifest.
Any wind event will be quite brief, but potent.

WEDNESDAY: Active weather scenario will be clearing the state by early-late morning from north to south and should have ended by noon time most areas but really well before that time for the most part. Clearing skies throughout the day but with breezy western-ly winds and temperatures in the 70Fs.

THURSDAY IS THANKSGIVING DAY 2013!  - Starting out mostly clear. Coldest day (if such a word could be used at this point in the season)..of the 2013-2014 cold season (aka - "winter"). Lows at the immediate beaches close to 50F-53F but rapidly falling toward the mid 40Fs west of the intercoastals and well inland if not upper 30Fs into North Central Florida for example in areas around Ocala and Lake County. NNW wind 10-15 mph with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs.

PSALM 110:2, " A Psalm for Thanksgiving. Shout joyfully to The LORD, all the earth. 2 Serve the LORD with gladness; Come before Him with joyful singing.
3 Know that THE LORD HIM - SELF IS GOD!; It is He who has made us, and not we ourselves; We are His people and the sheep of His pasture."

FRIDAY: End of the cold spell. Winds becoming N-NNE-NE overnight such that Friday morning at the beaches could dawn with a morning 'low' much warmer than the temperature experienced when going to bed Thanksgiving Night. Wind fetch this bout of onshore winds will have a trajectory across more water this go around, so cloud cover again should begin to manifest with possible coastal sprinkles becoming more evident later in the day into the night and into Saturday.

WEEKEND: It is possible that measurable rainfall over for example a 6-12 hours period will occur, if not in less time. Onshore winds breezy but not outrageous, but cloud cover and possible rain for the entire remainder of the Thanksgiving Weekend does appear   not to be out of the question for those along the coast east of I-95,  noting that rainfall totals, if so, are shown by the GFS forecast model guidance to be less than 1/2" over a 3 day period.  

Much Cooler Sunday/Windy (!) - Possible Severe/Strong Storms Tuesday-Wednesday

November 23rd 2013 - Cape Canaveral Water Sprite 

TODAY: Most pleasant day in quite some time!  Warm, light winds (finally) for a change, but big wake up calls are on the way by Sunday morning. Warmer tonight with light winds in front of an advancing frontal boundary.

SUNDAY: Cold front appears will lie across Central Florida near the Beach Line Latitude right at sunrise within an hour either way. Clouds along the boundary with increasing North to NNE wind behind it, lagging by nearly 6 hours but working down the east coast from early morning to early afternoon. Though the day might start out with light winds and warm for morning lows (mainly south of I/4), but noontime winds could increase significantly especially at the beaches as pressure gradient increases. 

Rain not really expected but stratocumulus deck could rapidly form as modified cold air sweeps across the relatively warmer Atlantic ocean waters. Possible sprinkles near the beaches but not worth mentioning really. High temperature from Central and north might be realized early in the day with falling temperatures into mid-later afternoon then leveling off east side. Overnight lows in the upper  or mid 40Fs west central and colder north Florida toward nearly 61F along A1A Cape Canaveral and south as not expecting temperatures to fall that much right at the beach from Canaveral South after around 11pm Sunday night . (NOTE: Another front is to pass through Thanksgiving Eve  ( so far)and a similar temperature regime behind that one is expected as well  ( ***graphic below).

MONDAY/TUESDAY: WInds quickly wane going into late Monday and start to veer toward the south. Low pressure expected to form along the northern Gulf of Mexico to track east to ENE in the next 48 hours afterward crossing near the Florida Border or just south of there then paralleling the U.S. East Coast off shore.

So far, this low/front system is expected to only truly impact parts of the Deep Southeast states and Florida though theMountains of North Carolina might see some snow from it (rain elsewhere).

Possible Severe weather/ strong storms due to mainly straight line winds in storms but a tornado potential of opportunity could exist mainly south of I-4 near the East Coast southward toward Ft Pierce and inland but in general all of Central Florida Tuesday afternoon to early evening...but would watch South to near I-10 or I-4 toward South Central Florida Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday depending on track and timing of surface low, and strength of that low. This is still SEVERAL days away and a lot could change between now and then as often is the case.

Model Guidance varies between and within model run-to -runs themselves, but the writing is on the wall that there is a chance of this potential, thus a heads up in advance for your info  as far as a blog post goes. The National Weather Service and News Outlets will most certainly be addressing the situation if conditions continue to warrant as such.

BEYOND: Thanksgiving Day - Possibly Breezy and cloudy especially near the coast, cool once again (a bit like that of what it will be like later tomorrow, Sunday)...going into at least the first half of the Thanksgiving Weekend with conditions slowly improving with time. Rain not expected but cloud-cover and winds are always a possible nuisance for such events as the Cocoa Beach Art Festival to be held over the weekend and related activity.

FURTHER BEYOND: Might be worth watching for another potential severe weather event 6-7 days later around the 5th of December. As has been the case so far this season and often is, a larger scale pattern appears to be setting up, which is really only a variation of the one we've been in for the past month..and storm tracks tend to duplicate for 2-3 rounds of the same before a greater shift in the large scale pattern can occur.

Too Much "Tide"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fall Beach Sunrises