Another Chance of a Strong Storm East Central

"Storm Outflow Approaches North Canaveral"

TODAY: Not much change today from yesterday although the day is starting out quite differently. A thunderstorm complex that developed over the Eastern Gulf overnight is spreading 'cloud debris' from its thunderstorm tops and mid-level fragments across Central Florida at sunrise this morning. Latest satellite animations dictate if all goes according to plan (and nothing changes) that the skies should begin to clear out by 1oAM (west coast) to noon from west to east, and maybe a bit earlier once the sun gets to doing its thing.

Otherwise, the frontal boundary per models is in agreement to be stretched east / west very close to or just north of the 528 Beach Line to Orlando then on toward just south of Brooksville on the west coast or maybe further north. Suspect this will act as a better mechanism for some 'squirrely' action (helicity) as well as more along the east coast east of I-95 if sea breezes can set up. Watch out for the 'squirrely action' when combined with cold air aloft!  

Also, there might be some remnant outflow boundaries hanging around from yesterday's activity. Further south, a disturbance was offshore the West Palm area over night so suspect this area might be in sustenance at least for the first half of the day. Also, the RAP/ and SPC Mesoscale guidance shows this area  over South Florida again to be quite dry through the mid-levels so showers might have a hard time down there once again, though sea breeze interactions from West Palm and north (and any outflow from activity further north) could act to bust a forecast bubble with a strong storm as well.

BEYOND:  Front might end up in the morning just a bit further south but we'll see. If so, best storm activity will be South Central and South Florida on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another disturbance will be coming across the Northern Gulf from the west on Wednesday behind the surface front. Looks like an over-running rain event could set up for North Florida then into Central mainly during the dark hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning followed my much cooler temperatures to close out the week.

"Beach Outreach"

WEEKEND WEATHER is looking to be quite mild with mainly 50Fs and low to mid 70Fs but coolest at the beaches in the afternoons with a light sea breeze.

Chance of Storms, Maybe Strong, Mainly North Central

"SUNDAY...FOGGY SUNDAY"

TODAY: As expected, 'possibly (emphasis added)  strong' storms again today for mainly North Central Florida where a few 'could be strong' if they can get going.  Showers and maybe thunder possible further south especially much later, but for now will not highlight that area as at this time it appears the regions of South Central and South are very dry in the mid levels and will require some extra forcing from convergence or a trigger, and not sure either of which there will be strong enough to get something going, but if so it could also be strong.

Further north though to Central the same general theme of query applies, but with a few more things going for that area, mainly more moisture and good bulk shear through the mid-levels (or at least some) and perhaps a tad more directional shear today as well. Instability is not as great today as yesterday though, but we do have a disturbance with a definite trigger crossing North Florida right now. In any case, might need to watch for activity to begin to manifest after 2:00pm and be particularly cautious if a storm starts to 'drop more south the move east' (be a 'right mover') especially as they reach the sea breeze, or any storm that approaches more from the NW-NNW instead of the west.  

BEYOND: Chance of showers still into Tuesday and/or Wednesday with each day being a bit different. So far, Monday looks to be the quieter of days, and Tuesday has the potential to again reap the harvest of more favorable parameters  for  a strong storm or so.

Possible "Stronger-ish" Storms Central Florida Later Today

"Waiting for Peak Heating for Strongest Activity Today"

Storm Offshore Cape Canaveral on Friday, February 21

Image composed at 7AM this morning.
Not much from this line of thinking  but could change to extend thunder chances
south toward Ft. Pierce (at least)

TODAY: Frontal boundary is already near the location shown in the image above generated around 7AM this morning. Boundary should slow down or stall near location shown  -   surface based instability is expected to be greater than yesterday with continued cold air aloft; and 'helicity' in the atmosphere should be available close to what remains of the boundary as other conditions are not much different than yesterday other than winds are more unidirectional today than was the case yesterday. Storms could form near that boundary and 'roll off' south into parts of Central. Best chance for activity to begin forming and rolling east and offshore would be after 2-3pm with the last of it offshore by dark or shortly thereafter.   Short term guidance has been flipping around a lot, but this blog post is based on the consistency of the GFS showing greatest vertical velocities across Central for 2 days now, and the latest short term RAP-RUC is now showing the same. Locally heavy rainfall possible and frequent lightning possible it would seem, but time will tell. Sure feels a bit 'juicy' out there right now for February. On this day in 1998 the worst Tornado Outbreak in Central Florida history occurred beginning after 10pm.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary will lift north and dissipate overnight, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms through Monday and/or Tuesday remaining as temperatures remain above normal to perhaps much above 'normal' by around Tuesday;   but as noted yesterday, each day will have its own unique set of circumstances. There might well be a day that chances on one or more days will be very low.

About the only change in latest models since yesterday is that a bigger rain - type event seems to be going away now. The GFS has rain chances extended into Wednesday afternoon, and from there it will be a matter of what if anything begins to form in the Western Gulf region to slide toward 'somewhere across Florida'.  Would be interesting to see if that bigger rain chance re - materializes in later model runs.

"Chance of Isolated " Strong to Severe Storms Today - Rain Chances into Tuesday

Reflecting on Upcoming Weekend Weather

TODAY: Little change from previous post. A frontal system is now working into the panhandle region with some severe thunderstorm warnings being hoisted in the process. This line will potentially slow down a bit after sunrise and as peak heating commences. A good cloud cover is still a long time coming , though more storms toward the Gulf and over Northwest Florida should begin to spill over their anvil tops in advance of the more organized 'line' across Central Florida by late morning to early afternoon,  which might begin to weaken as it approaches the I-4 .

Further south, better sunlight / heat and instability through the morning to noon hours will build as a portion of the Southern Branch Jet starts to meet up with the Northern Branch rounding the base of the Low/Trough now focused over the Northern Great Lakes, which the approaching front is associated with. 

As the Southernmost Branch approaches so too will upper level divergence over the region building in surface based instability (i.e., Central Florida). Winds could become 'side' shore, or parallel the coast south of I-4 as well rather than remain SW as stronger winds aloft approach. This could add low level convergence coupled with upper level divergence into the mix well ahead (in advance) of the more organized line, and it is that activity IF it can manifest that seems would be the larger threat rather than the line itself. 

Sometime after 2 or 3PM perhaps (?), but showers and multiple pockets of rain and thunder could continue once an area such as this forms if it does. Chances are , the first storm of the day for any one location would be the biggie for that location, but not completely or necessarily so depending on the situation.

SATURDAY: The front should hang up close to Direct Central or just south of there then wash out during this day. Cloud cover will be around and rain chances much lower, though at time it appears will focus near the remaining boundary somewhere over Central Florida and inland though activity that does form will get whisked off toward the east coast .

SUNDAY: Southerly winds once again in advance of the next front referred to in the previous post. Another chance of storms just from the coast inland mainly, and some 'could' be a bit stronger if sea- breeze convergences get into the play. Monday and Tuesday are a bit of the same story as the front moves in but inevitably will have their own unique set of circumstances which is too far out in time for specifics.

BEYOND: Wednesday so far appears to be a dry day , but then...

Potential rain event (at least) coming the 27th time frame.  Going into the first week of March still looks a bit dicey as well, as it appears a bit of a more 'El Nino-ish' looking pattern might be setting up;  for California will be getting some big activity from Central and Maybe Southern Cali around the 27th as well, and after that as well. It's that next big upper level impulse to approach Florida or somewhere over the Southeast between March 3-5th that is still in question.

Warm and Pleasant Until Friday/Showers & Thunder Then Possible Until...?

"Change in the Weather is About to Dawn"

TODAY- THURSDAY: Warming overnights and pleasant and sunny days ahead with inland highs in the lower to some mid 80sF and closer to 80F immediate beachside under sunny skies but with some increasing cloud cover each day as greater moisture works in from the south especially on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very vigorous and potent upper level low will form east of the Central Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. Though not sure of the exact definition of 'Bombing Out" , the bottom on this one is going to really drop out and pressure will be quite low. Expecting a vigorous QLCS type Squall Line with broken arching line segments and bow echoes with potentially tornadoes especially in Illinois , Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky but elongating out quickly into a straight line wind event. Eventually the event unfolds east to parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states and south. Much further south, Florida sits high and dry oblivious to what is going on to our west and north until Friday as the tail end of the front enters the panhandle.

FRIDAY: Again a warm if not warmest day of all, with SW winds possibly side shore south of I-4. Instability will be at about it's best since quite some time ago now with cold air aloft but with little in upper level winds. Chance of showers and some thunder though if conditions are ripe enough wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated strong storms with hail being the main hazard.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY: No point in going into specifics just yet, as the GFS is bouncing from one extreme to the other as to when the actual front will go through. After a very close call into Central it appears it will retreat back north and await the next upper level trough to rotate around the near H-Bomb Monster Mother Load Low by then in progress near the Canadian border. It is this front that is causing the bigger problem with whether or not it will make a thorough, scrubbingly clean passage or not. High pressure over and near Florida is reluctant to budge, Which will win out? Too soon to say.

As a prelim. rain chances again Saturday and Sunday, but cloud cover might become an increasing issue for wide coverage as well as 'any storm' strength though guidance continues to show ample instability (instant ability). Experience says the GFS has a hard time with instability over Florida beyond one day normally, though that is summer time norm for the model. Winter time? Hard to say how it will pan out, but suspect for now showers and possibly thunder one or both days if not even...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, what will the front do. latest shows the front never hardly clearing Florida but as a very shallow boundary, which has not been the norm for the most part over the past three days and 12 other model runs of the GFS. now showing possibly thunder on Monda and or Tuesday...Regardless...

FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 4 :  It is this week that is of greater interest as there has been a rather consistent tread of the GFS to show for a potential one if not two (as of the last run) severe weather events across the state...OR...it might just be plain much cooler than normal. So far, running 50/50, Either/Or.  

Isolated Strong Storm or Isolated Severe Possible late Today through 10pm

(See Below Discussion)

TODAY: Not much change to previous post other than the forecast surface low now appears will be more organized (stronger) as it cross along or near the I-10 to just south of it tonight. Very warm today with highs in the lower to even mid 80Fs (South Florida) before cirrus blow off moves in. Might see some record highs in a few areas contingent upon when the cirrus clouds start to break over the area due to thunderstorm tops which will form well to the west of the state and blanket the state by early or mid afternoon (possibly later). Assuming that does indeed occur. For if not, even stronger storms could occur later over the Peninsula south of I-4 in particular.

Mid-Late Afternoon:  Again, strongest activity will not be associated with the actual cold front which will make things much colder to cool Thursday through Saturday. Some showers and maybe some thunder especially South Florida by mid afternoon, though over Central we might be restricted to High based low topped convective like rain showers due to high LCLs (lifted condensation levels). Winds primarily from the SW but right near the beaches some backing toward paralleling the coast looks to be possible as far north as Southern Volusia (perhaps).

After 5-6PM: This seems to be around, give or take an hour, the big shift when LCLs lower and upper level winds begin to increase (unbeknownst to us at the ground) as high level 30-35,000 foot level winds over 100kts begin to move in -- Central at the approaching Right Exit Region for those winds which would increase upper level divergence and mid level lifting despite the lack of low level instability.

 As a result, much of the activity will not exactly be 'surface based' but it is only February so hard to say for sure. Not expecting a good covering of 'organized activity' though there could be some isolated pockets of it, and those are impossible to say exactly where they will manifest, so will broad brush the areas noted above in the image. As a result of this being not a more formidably organized situation synoptically speaking, not sure we'll even see a watch box posted, but wouldn't be surprised either way.

Timing is everything, including the season. Suspect that there might be some tornado warnings after or near the 'dinner hour' time-frame toward 10pm but whether anything actually verifies on the ground is another matter. Paying especially close attention to those east of I-95 mainly from the Southern Volusia County area south to Vero Beach due to lingering low level helicities that might manifest from the intracoastal/ocean dynamics set in place earlier in the day though invisible to the model guidance.   This 'could ' mean a very brief spin up like 'tornado' situation embedded within any stronger storm, but those would be very isolated. More predominately seems to be the chance for severe category straight line winds or even a brief spin up elsewhere as a result of interactions more than directly related to a discrete stand alone storm itself. Activity should be increasing in coverage after 7pm and exit off the east coast by 11pm for the most part with the cold front still many hours behind. Possibly rain showers with the front.

THURSDAY: Still appears the front will be directly across Central Florida within an hour either way of sunrise but the true cooling will not be fully appreciated until the sun starts to set. Breezy behind the front with westerly winds perhaps busting upwards of 30 mph for a period of time but good clearing with some earlier in the day clouds before the drier air moves in by late morning to early afternoon.

Much colder Thursday through Saturday mornings though gradually warming with a more noticeable change by Sunday after a weak front attempts to enter North and Central with little to no impacts. Afternoons in the lower to mid 60Fs (Central) but to the 70Fs by Sunday or even Saturday south of I4.

BEYOND: Dry for the most part and warm much like a week or so ago. It's as if so far the season is reversing - - for cold weather looks to be having a hard time coming , if not for a chance toward the 27th of the month (as it looks now).  

Chance of Strong or 'Isolated Severe Wx Possible' Late Wednesday - 11pm

"Turbulent Weather Potential Could Be Looming Late Wednesday"

TODAY: Not much really to say regarding today with the short-term on track. A little more moisture, a few more clouds, and warmer temperatures with coolest readings at the immediate beaches with highs ranging from the lower 80Fs well inland south of I-4 down to the  mid 70Fs  range in general immediate beaches.  A developing warm front near and north of I-10 will be creating winter havoc over parts of Georgia once again as we are sure to be hearing about if not already on the news and other areas further north.

WEDNESDAY: A cool start to the day but warmer than the one this morning with increasing cloud cover especially north of I-4 to near it as the day wears on. As surmised, it appears the active weather later in the day and evening will be associated more with a pre-frontal surface trough/front as opposed to the actual cold front which will be bringing air conditioner PLUS on the colder side afternoon readings in the following days. But closer to home in the short term...

Weak surface low to form near Apalachicola to slide east and amass in due course to an organized low will track very close to and up the entire US East Coast centered just offshore  from Wednesday evening through Thursday and into early Friday playing potential cold weather drudgery mainly along and east of the I95. 

For Florida, it appears a good 90-110kt upper level jet swath will coincide with 50-70kt winds through the mid levels and 30-40kts at lower levels (except at the lower 3000 ft or so). Winds do not appear to be sheared directionally as much as could be, but the GFS is showing respectable vertical upward velocity compiled/associated with some vorticity max impulses within the flow much like eddies form as water flows along a rocky river. Guidance does show especially as of the latest model run an impulse coming in near to south of Sarasota to exit near the Space Coast with others closer to I-4 though this might only be the half of it. Colder air aloft associated with any tall convective cloud tops into those strong upper levels winds could result in severe category straight line winds if and only if true deep convection will be able to initiate. 

The issue there being a lack of low level convergence along the pre-frontal trough coupled with weak surface based instability. Regardless, those dis-qualifiers aside, wouldn't hurt to hoist the 'just in case banners' and select a local weather station broadcast particularly after 7pm if along the East Coast.

THURSDAY: The true front itself does not appear will clear all of Central Florida until after sunrise the next day with passage direct close to Dead Central near sunrise. Much drier and colder air to infiltrate behind that boundary with rapidly clearing skies and very breezy winds as the colder air attempts to mix with good surface heating from the sun. Breezy on Thursday with NW winds gusting to 25 mph or so up until mid afternoon but gradually waning toward sunset. Highs will occur close to sunrise then hold steady or drop a bit until near sunset then drop more significantly . 

FRIDAY: Much cooler all areas with lower 40Fs inland though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 30Fs Interior West Central as high pressure begins to move directly overhead, with the immediate beaches in the lower 50Fs. Cool on Friday with a high in the lower to mid 60Fs and light west wind. 

EXTENDED: Continued cool with a bit chilly sunrise temperatures, but progressively warmer toward Sunday with a return to normal temperatures that day and perhaps a notch above 'normal' in the beyond. Extended dry period of several several days could be anticipated at this conjecture as the story is being portrayed as of this morning by the Geriatric Fiction Story (GFS model).

CoC Days Could be Followed By Strong/Severe Weather Late Wednesday

"Chamber of Commerce's True Blue and  '72F' Expected Today" 

TODAY: Light winds all day and nearly cloud free sky should allow the heating agent to act in force mainly away from the direct beachsides for highs in the mid 70Fs to 'near' 80F, warmest interior South Florida. Chamber of Commerce weather welcomes all to attend. Step outside and enjoy free trade. The beaches will be more toward the lower-mid 70F s as a result of the proximity to the cooling influence of the very cool ocean waters though not particularly 'cold' as has been experienced in other years.

TOMORROW: Almost ditto but a bit warmer with some increasing clouds particularly from I-4 and north as a warm front begins to develop along and north of I-10 toward Louisiana. Increasing moisture at lower levels cloud permit more scattered cumuliform low topped type clouds further south. Low temperatures similar to this morning, but perhaps a bit warmer as well.

WEDNESDAY: Day or reckoning as to what will manifest later in the day and into the overnight hours begins. Much still contingent on a few factors, and according to some discussions the GFS and ECMWF (A European model the blogger does not have thorough access to ) are still a bit at odds; but nonetheless, the GFS (Global Forecast System) model is becoming increasingly consistent despite a falling away in the morning run yesterday, with showing the same idea as previously discussed here on Friday. That being, good vertical life in the mid-upper levels and favorable lapse rates in the same regions as well with very cold air aloft in the upper levels into the midlevels after a day of heating supportive for strong to marginally severe storms. Pre-emptive cloud cover though, particularly from I-4 and north could be an issue for low level instability to be quite weak in that area where the best winds fields that support strong storms will be, but further south appears will also be in on the winds to a lesser degree.

LATE WEDNESDAY: Very cold air aloft and increasing upper level winds with the latest GFS showing a jet streak over 90kts aloft to pass overhead at night as low pressure slides across north Florida with slightly backed winds at the lower levels south of I-4, mainly early on from late afternoon through the 10pm time frame. We might also see a pre-frontal trough preceding a main cold front which could mean two potential shots of 'strong or severe storms' of two different characters - the main crux being a result of strong wind gusts and non-severe sized hail as it looks now, but that could easily change. It's still too soon to say with any degree of reasonable certainty but as outlined already. It is the 'potential' that  is being referred to as opposed to what may or might not actually occur. Chances are, we will be hearing more about this on the press-lines in the next 48 hours. The Storm Prediction Center is now discussing this situation as well as of yesterday and writing about it and has upped their ante on the speculations....casting lots on the models as opposed to a personal reputation.

BEYOND: Some much cooler mornings and afternoons ahead into the weekend follows Thursday into the weekend, but nothing colder than what has already been experienced this year, and not as cold at that as well. After some cooler days the GFS has been having a hard time finding anything but a prolonged period of very comfortable weather in days ahead out for several days to a week. Beyond that, model reliability fizzles into oblivion, but naught for watching tendencies and trends at least.

 

Continued Cloudy North Central All Day. / Much Nicer South Florida Half

TODAY/SATURDAY: A picture from the sky says 1000 words (if necessary) as can be seen below. Cooler under the cloud cover and North Florida but warmer into the lower 80Fs away from the clouds. The above image shows the anticipated inverted trough well off shore and it's counterpart in the form of a bit a stationary front from the cold fronts passage a few days ago remainings over South Central Florida. It didn't work it's way as far north as earlier models had suggested and so here Central Florida lays under and overrunning pattern to this moment which could remain in place to varying degrees until Sunday morning.   The weak Low offshore might gather some more momentum and with an 'impulse' to possibly ride over head tonight into tmorrow rain chanes could increase at some point during the day Saturday though it might be a bit warmer for a few regions further north than today. 

Latest Cloud Cover is moving slowly from the West South West
but not eroding much from the south

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Improving conditions, much drier and warmer though a bit breezy on Sunday. Clearing should truly commence for good by Early Sunday afternoon or sooner in North Florida..with some near stellar Chamber of Commerce type Days Monday and Tuesday. 

WEDNESDAY: Watching for possible strong to marginally severe storms this day as latest seems to indicate good mid level lapse rates and bulk shear at that same level which could result in some strong wind gusts if storms can get going..especially over the South Half of the state were better but marginal low level instability would be more likely. So far the 'window of opportunity' is honing in on somewhere from 3pm through midnight Wednesday, but details will be changing quite a bit between today and then.

VALENTINE'S GUESS FOR NOW: Much cooler and breezy and drier.

Cooler Weather Thursday/Friday, But no Cold Weather To Be Seen "Yet"

"Morning Cloud Cover and Showers" - Cocoa Beach Pier Viewing SSE

TODAY: A 'patch of moisture' through the mid levels is located over East Central Florida earlier today which is expected to lift further north and shrink a bit during the late morning through early afternoon. As a result for this location, skies could be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times up through around 2pm perhaps with some clearing as the day wears on with a few showers. Elsewhere, as low clouds and some fog burns off temperatures especially inland could warm to the near record highs that were observed yesterday. Some showers are possible closer to I-4 , inland, later today.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Little change as a cold front approaches. Chance of increasing cloudiness though after late morning into the afternoon and warm. There is a migratory chance of a better shower coverage from near Mims-North Tampa Bay line and south to South Florida during the afternoon though with the tiny chance of some thunder mixed in as well, likely slightly elevated thunderstorm activity but strong storms if any are not expected to be able to materialize due to the lack of more favorable conditions. The front will also be approaching , with more showery weather close to it and just behind it across North Florida.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The front is expected to be located near a Cape Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line sometime between 10pm to midnight time frame, accompanied by a wind shift to the North . The front should then be located over the Lake Okeechobee region by sunrise Thursday, with little to no further southward progress as it begins to washout. It might remain a bit cloudy though on ...

THURSDAY: ...with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs all day as a near shore coastal trough begins to form along the gulf Stream waters overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY: A pseudo warm front could form as a result of the nearshore coastal trough and remanent old boundary which would lift north toward I-4 . Another chance perhaps of early day cloudiness and/or fog as a result. Friday will be warmer once again with temperatures ranging in the mid-70Fs into the lowers 80Fs mainly well inland and south of I-4 depending on cloud cover.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Meanwhile with all this going on in the near-abouts, another true cold front will be approaching the state over the weekend from the West and Northwest. Though it will be warm again next weekend, it looks like Sunday might end up not being the better of the two days as remnant moisture begins to interact with the approaching boundary resulting in at least increasing clouds and maybe showers if not some storms by later Sunday into Sunday night. As a result, it might not be as warm on Sunday as might be hoped it could be. Saturday looks to be the better weekend day at this point.

MONDAY: This day appears might end up being more 'winter-like' but will be very short lived. Within 48 hours the story will be over, but still we might see one day of barely reaching even 60F, with the coast from the Cape South being in the lower - mid 50Fs to near 60F during the day..  but yet another front into around the mid-February time frame might introduce a more prolonged cooler period for temperatures to be running closer to normal for this time of year rather than the near-record to record breaking warmth of the past 3 days that have been experienced.