Another Active Day Possible - Rain Chances through Saturday

TRICKY Forecast today with guidance varying from showing
a worst case scenario to close to a "No Case" Scenario.
This depiction is closer to the 'worst case' depiction 

TODAY: It was tempting to post the same image as yesterday for today's scenario as it is,  since mid morning dynamics are beginning to mimic yesterday's set up, at least on paper as of the time of this writing. 

Instability is not shown to be quite as strong on the Mesoscale analysis page today, but the LDIS (Local Data Integration System) which runs locally is showing more instability than yesterday...so which is it? Sounding showed a lot of dry air aloft and MESO shows pretty strong downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a result meaning it could be tough to get any serious storms going, but once one can go, the trend should be set for the rest to follow suite for the potential of small hail and/or strong wind gusts. 

The question is, "Can they even get going?". This post  falls in line with Official Outlets for the most part  though location for strongest activity likely is leaning too far to the east as was the case in the posted image yesterday. 


Being on the coast is a bit misleading as a steady river / sea breeze is blowing from the SSE, yet inland locations show something quite a bit different with light south winds . Guidance is showing winds just above the deck from the SW at around 15 KTS which would keep activity pegged more toward the east, but the KSC sounding did not show this to be the case at all, thus, the strongest activity might be located a bit further inland than what is shown in this image. The higher chance of some stronger activity is due to a number of factors combined with that upper level divergence 'might' increase across the North half of the state later today. The JAX area for better chances of severe per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was omitted from this post.

BEYOND: As noted previously, every day will be a case by case basis with more thunder possible through Friday,  but probably lowering in strength as a result of more cloud coverage as the frontal boundary eases toward Central Florida and goes quasi-stationary going toward Friday and/or Saturday. 

The front should clear all but the FLorida Keys on Sunday afternoon or so and remain to the south. No big rain chances are then foreseen for nearly a week after this coming weekend,  for the most part.

Isolated Strong Storms Are "Possible" Today after 5PM - 8PM

 

TODAY: Latest morning guidance shows moderate to strong instability continues to reside off the Florida East coast to be advected inland with the east coast sea breeze. Steering above the level of the sea breeze is from the SW-SSW near 10-12 knots toward the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet. If the depth of the sea breeze extends up toward 2000 ft or so, winds at that level (so far) are also from the SW-SSW and therefore hard to be too sure of just exactly how far inland it will work this afternoon,  but suspect it might not make it as far as the Orlando METRO area or if so, perhaps MCO area at best. 

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold for this time of year per the KSC morning sounding which is a sign of a strong storm signal given other factors are present as well, but guidance indicates some warming will occur as the day progresses. Suspect some showers could go up along the sea breeze as there is more moisture today than yesterday, and one did manage to go up down in Indian River County west of Vero Beach proper along the sea breeze with less moisture present.

There are some other meteorological parameters that are derived from equations that would support strong activity today, but very isolated, such as some pockets of dry air. 

The additive bonus that goes without saying,  but that which models cannot account for at least not very accurately,  is the sea breeze convergence factor coupled with any outflows from even only rainshowers that set up boundaries prior to late day time frame when heating has been maximized and various lake and sea breezes begin to interact in random fashion. 

Those combined with the aforementioned  enhanced low level helicities east of I-95 toward Central Florida and toward the interiors up to the storm base level could give rise to some decent true to life thunderstorm activity given the current situation, unless things change radically between now and then. The down play toward North Central is a thin veil of high level cirrus clouds that are a result of thunderstorms over the panhandle region this morning.

BEYOND: More storms are possible through Friday, but each day will be on the  "Play it as it Comes" . Other days before then could see some strong storms as well; e.g. The NAM model from overnight showed more so tomorrow.  The front and storm system related to the severe weather in parts of the Deep South is expected to make headway through Florida late Saturday.

Below is only a make up of an area the blogger is watching for today for potentially damaging storms most concentrated wise; official outlets have the details though.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    

Chance of Early to Mid Evening Showers and Perhaps Thunder - Increasing Chance on Thursday

Chance of early to mid evening showers and maybe some thunder. Click on images to enlarge.

Spring Break - Cocoa Beach "Warm Streak"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warmest String of 2014 Days Ahead

TODAY THROUGH WEEKEND: Warmer and then yet warmer still with cool mornings and light winds.

A remnant cold frontal boundary is expected to reach North Central to Central Florida late Wednesday. The recent trend has been to reduce the impact this boundary will have on Florida, but whether that trend will continue or not is about the only question mark. The only impact it previously had was to make Thursday a bit cooler but that, in the latest guidance, was going by the wayside. Either way, any change in the latest is rather insignificant.

It is still shown that there 'could' be in increase in cloud cover and perhaps some showers near the East Coast of Central Florida on Thursday, and more specifically parts of the interior of North and North Central Florida due to the remnant boundary laying out with a north/south orientation resulting in some sea breeze convergence showers in that area, but other wise other than perhaps a shower or thunderstorm over South Florida heading toward Saturday or Sunday, winds are expected to remain light with a string of mid to perhaps upper 80Fs to near 90F (interior regions anywhere in Florida by the weekend) as noted in the post last Thursday, little is foreseen at this point until mid-week next week in regard to discernible weather changes in any other regard. At least as it stands now. Whether active weather in that time frame will actually manifest is too far out in time to hold any degree of certainty.  

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Late Today into mid-late Evening

Latest Enhanced Water Vapor Image Shows the Upper Level Low
Lagging well to the west of low level features. Instability over the Loop Current
likely responsible for on going activity there since last night (continues) combined with favorable for strong activity veering winds with height

NOW (8AM): A thin line of showers is working up the east coast affecting Southern Brevard County soon to reach Central and north Brevard. This line is thought by some to be a 'warm front' but closer analysis brings cause to wonder if it is not associated more with the leading edge of deepest mid level moisture working north. I'm  hearing thunder now as I type.

Otherwise, gusting on shore winds along the east coast will veer toward the south by mid-afternoon or so. Perhaps some sprinkles off and on, but cloud cover will be the general rule but for far South Florida as anvil blow off from activity (with frequent lightning) over the Eastern Gulf continues, and has been in progress since mid evening last night with little eastward motion if any.

LATE TODAY: A warm front will form across Central Florida, but how far north it progresses could be debated, at least in regard to the surface front. This might be an issue as rain cooled air from direct rainfall or evaporative cooling over North Florida might give it a hard time progressing much further north than I-4 (if even that). Aloft, the warm front will proceed much further north as a wind shift line and some mid level warmer making for poor lapse rates across the far North but where the best wind fields will exist. 

With poor low level lapse rates, suspect a severe threat in that area is only minimal. The better 'chance' for said 'strong to severe' at time appears will be from near I-4 south to the Indian River County and more - so along the East Coast where winds will remain more backed (and enhanced) due to lack of frictional effects of the land mass. So far, best timing would be from after 6pm through around 11pm or so. Much,  as noted yesterday,  will depend on the timing issues.

OTHERWISE: Surface low to remain near the Florida Big Bend and south of or near Alligator Point much of the day and into tonight. In time, the upper level winds will move in, but by that time the lower to mid level winds profiles will no longer be present having lifted off to the North and North east, and suspect at that point any strong storm threat will be out of the picture (per the latest GFS ). Overall, the biggest threat appears would be strong wind gusts from heavier storms (if any) and perhaps a brief spin up tornado, though would still bear watching the local networks or favored form of media (Weather Radio). Suspect some local TV Channels will switch to "live mode' as or if conditions warrant.

WEEKEND: Much depends on how fast the low pressure areas move out. Suspect the GFS is more correct, and if so, lingering moisture on Sunday morning with broken cloud cover is possible ..but if it clears out even more, all the better with a low in the mid-upper 50Fs , closer to 60F. Continued clearing though on that day and seasonable temperatures once we get the sun in unless the low moves out slower (as implied by the NAM). No rains are foreseen from that time on.

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms "Friday": Not Necessarily "Good"

 ""When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red. And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?"

TODAY: A few thunderstorms are occurring over portions of South Florida at time and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has lowered the Slight Risk of Severe in that region of yesterday down to a 'See Text" (as suspected might end up being the case), but that might be generous but for later today toward West South Central. Otherwise, a bit breezy along the east coast (especially) with gusts over 30 mph eastern portions as far north as JAX south toward Brevard.  This could be a sign of stronger high pressure than thought, which is throwing the future-casts out of sync.  After some activity over The South, expect the evening to be in and out clouds with slowly fading winds as a warm front develops and lifts north across Central early to mid day tomorrow. Perhaps some isolated showers.

FRIDAY: There is some fairly significant differences in model guidance, both between the various models and consecutive runs within models. Having no access to the ECMWF, but in reading the discussions from those that do, see little benefit at this time at least of knowing one from the other as disparities continue right up through the morning GFS and NAM Runs. The NAM is considerably slower and further south with a surface low, the GFS is a bit further north and just a bit faster.  Between Three Models its like 'this one is just a little to hot, this one a little to cold, and this one..is it correct?" Both are showing a surface low though in the eastern gulf, but placement is spuriously inconsistent at best in regard to where it will be located and when. This holds much bearing on the end result over Florida as upper level features never fully integrate with those at the surface in a manner that would produce 'active weather' but perhaps along I-4 toward I-10 (as of this time), less so toward Dead Central and even less so more from near Lake Okeechobee and south. 

Therefore, at best, this blog post (which is 'most unofficial') is only capturing Generalities and rounding off what appears to be a best-guess.

GFS (Global Forecast System Model) Depiction for the surface features
per noted time

With the above scenario, a warm front will be located 'somewhere' across Central Florida late tomorrow afternoon lifting north toward dark. Rain should be ongoing already at this time toward I 10 and perhaps toward I-4 with some other showers further south possible,  potentially becoming 'thunder' near the warm front. It is expected to lift at least toward I-10 over night (or maybe sooner). Again, timing is everything and since models do not agree, we'll have to wait it out for more runs to be released to get a better grasp on the situation much like an unfolding, 'real to life' news drama.

"GENERAL OVERVIEW FROM WHATEVER MIGHT COME ABOUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD SUNRISE"

LATE FRIDAY/OVERNIGHT: This seems to be the big question mark in the sky right now. Without going into details, since at this point it would be meaningless in the big picture, would suffice it to say: 'remain a bit engaged with the local news outlet (s) of preference beginning late Friday morning'. 

SATURDAY: Surface and mid level low will be slow to move out. That much at least is agreed upon. So far, appears could be a chance of rain ending by mid morning if not sooner toward the east coast, to as late as Saturday afternoon before sunset.

EASTER ISSUES:  Guidance again differs on temperatures Sunday morning at Sunrise. ..from mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, as well as cloud coverage. The low being slow to move out will have wrap around moisture associated with it. Point being, will we even see the Sun Rise this Day?  We might need some Saving Grace in that regard,  but at least so far it doesn't look like the eggs will have to remain in hiding due to rainfall and running dye unless they now make it waterproof. 

BEYOND: Again, the beyond looks fairly benign for nearly a week at least. Hints at some very warm days ahead are being indicated though, which would be normal for the most part. Winter might have already seen it's last gasp the other morning, and if not, maybe on Sunday morning. It definitely appears to be losing breath in any case.

"Good" Chance of Rains on "Friday" (and before)

Confusing Image shows best storm chances Thursday over SW Florida and much of the state on "Good Friday" (especially portions of Central Florida that day)

TODAY: Frontal boundary  from yesterday cleared most of the state as of late morning making for a cool sunrise temperature wise. The boundary now resides near the Florida Straits toward the Keys or rather what remains of it. For the most part, it is quickly being absorbed in the larger synoptic scale higher pressure area well to the north and has lost much of it's identity; but alas, at only 5000 feet above ground the remaining supportive trough is over Central Florida and never will clear out.  That is much more evident than the surface front.  Another system is to approach in the mid-levels later tomorrow and in doing so will begin to buckle the lower level trough northward as a warm-front mainly just above ground level and not to be fully 'realized' at ground level much at all until early Friday as it gets more fully developed and refined nearer to I-10.

TONIGHT: Slight chance of mainly coastal showers along the east coast from Brevard County and south, but mainly focused toward the mid-level trough across Central (Brevard) to Southern Volusia County sometime near or before sunrise (if there is to be any, they will be light for the most part). 

THURSDAY: Showers could occur almost any time tomorrow along the east coast south of I-4 (mainly), closer to the east coast,  but the bigger focus will be toward SW Florida (see above) where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already introduced a "Slight Risk" for severe category like storms where instability will be the greatest coupled with moisture and cold air aloft.  Not so sure about the 'Severe Risk" but it has been called out by SPC so best be forewarned than not at all. Otherwise, outside of that 'general area', showers could occur toward the East coast as noted into Thursday night , with better rain chances as well along a line running from North Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral (mainly along and west of I95 going into the afternoon hours).

FRIDAY: (Image above again). Low pressure in the eastern Gulf (mainly in the mid levels) to approach the state. Just exactly where it will be located and how well it has worked toward the surface is still a bit sketchy (GFS shows it to be mainly a mid-level low), but for now SPC has placed much of the state in a "See Text" zone, implying something noteworthy 'could' occur, if only some stronger thunderstorms or some severe storms but too isolated to be worth a  "Good" Slight Severe storm Risk. 

The focus in regard to big rainfall totals per the GFS has been along the surface to mid-level 'warm front' which should be along to north of I/4 beginning BEFORE sunrise Friday morning, but some strong storms could occur there as well as far north as near JAX. 

It is after the morning toward noontime into early afternoon that appears will be the 'make or break' point in regard to the region further south, which will be solidly in  the 'warm sector' (mainly south of I/4). 

As usual, pre-eminent cloud cover from Gulf Blow Off could hold off instability though so far that has not been shown to be an issue. Chances are always possible that outflow from activity over Northern more regions could establish a pseudo-'cold front' further south toward the Central Dividing Line running from the Tampa bay region toward Brevard County as a result of outflow from rains further north, but playing with falling dominoes and which way they will lean 48 hours in advance is tricky business. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises.

BEYOND: Non-eventful weather pattern seems to be getting ready to be established or Florida for perhaps a week if not more heading toward MAY (can you believe it?)    So it goes. So far Easter-Weekend is looking fairly seasonal for this time of year with no rain in the forecast outside of some chances earlier on Saturday.