Today's Weather Pattern Slowly in Translation

Sunrise - Cape Canaveral, FL This Morning

TODAY: Nothing is cut and dry today. Appears surface front that was stretched across Southern Florida yesterday is trying to retrograde back north, buckling in response to a short wave midlevel trough gliding across the Deep South during the afternoon. How far it will buckle and remain so is the big question. 

Currently, there is a respectable chance of storms as far north as North Brevard mainly along to west of US1, but how long those favorable conditions will remain is uncertain. Therefore, have drawn the area in to cover the bases.
Otherwise, the better chance of activity will again be from near the Vero or Ft Pierce latitude and south mainly along the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee just in from the coast. Noting that as of the past two hours the Mesoscale analysis page is actually showing the most unstable conditions to be over Brevard County by some parameters (but this might only be temporary until the sea breeze kicks in). 

TONIGHT: GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the boundary pivoting back in time toward the NW  like the large minute hand of a clock going back in time...putting most of the peninsula in favorable rain chance conditions for Friday afternoon. The first to realize this effect might be along the immediate east coast in as far inland as I-95 overnight toward sunrise from Brevard into Southern Volusia County. Such conditions will remain until early afternoon after which point rains might shift further inland. The rain chance tomorrow goes down for far South Florida.

"The current pattern as been sitting pretty, but will soon...."

BEYOND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Though moisture will be abundant, the better chances for rains at this time appear to remain just inland from the immediate east coast, more toward over and west of I-95 and to the west coast. But the pressure pattern is fairly weak in this next phase to last 2-3 days before a leaning toward the east side becomes apparent. All in all, back to the day by day basis scenarios Though every day might seem the same in the summer, they really are not at all. Especially when it can be observed that patterns tend to last in 2-3 day cycles in general outside of extenuating circumstances.

"....take Flight"

Showers/Thunder To be Absent North Half of State Today

"Another Depiction of Monday "

TODAY: Post trough across CEntral, depending on what one calls 'the cold front/ that has been advertised will determine where one believes it is located depending on what parameters one chooses and why. Could almost be tempted to say it has washed out while cleaning the state, as higher dew point air remains per the mesoscale page and NWS MLB/ KSC Local Data Integration across the South half of the state as shown here.

With clear skies to the north today suspect a heat trough will form down the spine of the state with a very weak meso-low circulation to form over West Central in General to move toward the ENE late into early evening. Sea Breezes are possible most areas but maybe South Florida. 

Moisture convergence up the east coast combined with outflow and cloud coverage / cloud shadow'd thermal gradient all combine with potential for showers or even a thunder as far north as Cape Canaveral after 6:30pm - 8pm but chances are if not by then the window of opportunity for that are is lost. Better chances will be from Vero Beach and South most areas of the state.

TOMORROW: Similar set up as high pressure ridge from the Four Corners region (aloft) noses across the Northern Gulf and toward Florida. This is where most of the dry air aloft is coming from (except for far north Florida where some continental post frontal dry air might also be an influence) as can be seen from the wind fields at jet stream level. 

The image above is showing a "low' over West Central, the image is for later today. This would be mainly thermally induced combined with the dashed 'trough axis' (also thermally induced) if it is to be at all, though guidance has been showing something similar for two days now; bring the low  if not over Brevard County by later, so that is only an estimation. 

Most activity to be south of the northern most 'orange arrow' today, but by tomorrow expect the activity will be further north., possible as far as I-4 on the east coast, not so much toward the interior until the ridge axis aloft from out west retreats and the pattern breaks down, which will be on Friday.

BEYOND:  Deep SSE flow in place for the next 2-3 day pattern through the weekend. Showers almost anywhere at any time along the east coast except perhaps from midnight - 6AM, but then working inland and toward the west coast by early afternoon.   Again, the tropical system which might be named remains non-threat to land masses at this time, but continues to appear to have some sort of indirect influences  to the overall wind fields which direct storm motion come early next week, but only for a day or so after which point a return to SW Flow aloft returns (as things stand now). 

Increased Rain/Storm Chances, Isolated Strong Storm Possible

Late Afternoon 'Convection" Offshore East Central Florida
which later  Delayed a Rocket Launch 

TODAY:  'Cold front ' as i'twere is located near I-10 this morning and based on forecasts appears will move very little during the day toward the latitude of Ormond Beach as the day progresses. Upper level cloud coverage might put a crimp on 'storm' and 'rain' chances with best convergence along the west and east coasts. Hard to ignore some of the higher wind parameters and lower 700mb temperatures aloft, so some storms could conceivably be 'quite breezy' to put it lightly in and in the vicinity of the heavier rain cores. The graphic shows spotty red areas for stronger activity but those are only to give an idea that some stronger storms could occur, though the greater likelihood appears to be from Seminole into Brevard, Indian River and St Lucie Counties.

WEDNESDAY: So far, not fully buying into what the TV Channel I was seeing yesterday was advertising. ..that being dry post frontal conditions except South Florida. The GFS has been inconsistent in regard to exactly how far south the drier air will reach. Noting that though this is being termed a cold front there really is no 'cold' air behind the boundary for Central and South Florida, only drier air through a deeper layer of the atmosphere. Will opt on the pessimistic side for Central Florida for the rain chances and throw in a chance of showers and/or thunder along and south of Rte 50 if not Rte 46  or a line running from Mims, FL west toward the North side of Tampa Bay. Better storm chances over South Central and South Florida, though.

THURSDAY: Low pressure circulation though weak will embody the entire state with a boundary running nearly across dead central if not a 'center' of circulation' over West Central somewhere . Best rain and storm chances up and down the entire east half of the peninsula (as opposed to dry all but South Florida as was heard on TV yesterday). No doubt, this blog easily could be out to lunch, but just to be on awares, is all.

BEYOND: The GFS continuously brings a tropical storm or minimal hurricane toward Florida only to curve north then eventually NE east of the Bahamas. There are several reasons in the future why that would be so, and it seems to be model consensus. Though some days will favor more the interior areas to the west coast, it's too early to say that the east coast couldn't see some morning activity even so on those days. In short, a return to summer like conditions other than the disruption in our pattern once whatever happens in the tropics happens and approaches the state which is always the case as  a general rule; anything that forms and heads toward Florida will put a damper on forecast accuracy the closer it approaches , indirectly.

Developing Thunderstorm near Indian Harbour Beach as viewed from Cape Canaveral

 

Warmer Than Usual Eastern Beaches, Showers/Thunder Very Isolated But Possible

Mammatiform - Cumuluslike Pertubations Underneath  a Storm Anvil that was  Offshore Late Sunday  

TODAY IN BRIEF: Westerly winds at the surface and aloft could make for an unusually warm afternoon along the east coast of Florida. There 'could' possibly be a seabreeze formation though late and after peak heating hours from the Cape and south which will stick very close to the coast east of US1 for Central and closer toward east of I95 parts of South Central/South Florida. Chance again of quicker moving shower activity from west to east inland during the day as noted, with some possible bolts of lightning as showers peak out. Best chance though of more concentrated lightning activity it appears would be nearer to on the beaches to just offshore the beaches after 5pm through dark from Brevard County and south toward Martin or even Palm Beach counties.

A cold front is approaching - to enter Central Florida before noon time Wednesday.

Expected location of cold front at 2pm tomorrow across Panhandle

TUESDAY: Possible earlier onset of showers and thunder near and north of I-4 on Tuesday. Better chances of some stronger storms in regard to gusty winds south of I-4 after 2pm. Mid-level temperatures should drop some tomorrow as opposed to the warmer air aloft today, resulting in earlier onset north, and stronger wind gusts further south ahead of and in heavier rains.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Front at the surface to make it to at least Lake Okeechobee but just above the surface more toward Central Florida,. The focus for storms should be along the surface boundary though, so the best chance of storms or showers will be from near Sebastian Inlet and south unless the front does not progress as far south as guidance indicates.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: A weak low pressure circulation is shown to encompass all of Florida by the weekend with mid level troughiness over the Deep South region and the northern Gulf putting the state in SW  flow aloft, but with S-SSE surface winds. Moisture abundant will make for an increased chance of thunderstorms and some just a little stronger than standard fare. Mid level cooler temperatures might make for an earlier onset of activity some days, Beach activities not looking so great but before 2-3pm in general all weekend unless activity gets a start by or before 1pm (esp. Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, Broward, Dade Counties)..

Lower Chance Of a Potent Late Day Storm or Two East Side

"SUNDAY MORNING"

TODAY: KSC sounding came in with a similar temperature profile as yesterday aloft, and wind profile comparable to the late day sounding as well. The only difference is less readily available moisture. Two questions today is will the sea breeze truly manifest and if so how far inland will it progress. The other negating factor (other than less moisture aloft) is cirrus clouds far offshore that might work their way across a part of the state during peak heating. OTHERWISE, under the pretense that the sea breeze penetrates at least as far as US1 (from Brevard County and south) which might be a tough one and cirrus do not get too thick, there is a chance of a fluke freak storm again today primarily from North Brevard area and south toward Vero Beach in general after 5pm IF a storm can punch the drier air in the mid levels.  


The west coast sea breeze has already kicked in and is beginning it's eastward march to the Atlantic coast while land breezes persist on the east coast. Noting that the GFS now coming in is showing close to no activity today much of anywhere, though some is already in progress, so went more with the RAP guidance .    Thus, today's post might be overly generous on the rainfall coverage and intensity.

Very general outline for thunder chances in Orange though might have
been able to extend it further North or South. Main thing
watching for today is something 'like' what occurred yesterday
LATE in the day but not with as much coverage 

MONDAY: So far, driest day even yet still. The GFS shows today and tomorrow to be very similar in rainfall areas, with one spot near North Brevard and the other over far SE Florida, but with less coverage.

"Yesterday"

TUESDAY: Cold front to work toward North Florida. Increasing rain chances north of a Sebastian Inlet to South side of Tampa Bay in general. 

"TODAY"

WEDNESDAY: Greater rainfall and storm coverage again, though this time mainly SOUTH of a line running from DAB (Daytona Beach) to Tampa Bay.

"Yesterday Once More"

BEYOND: Front shown to make it into South Central Florida (at least) and linger in that general area for two days near Lake Okeechobee , then as mentioned yesterday, lifting back north as broad low pressure takes shape over the Deep South in nearly the same location as it was located several days ago. All in all, the state remains in SW-W flow aloft, with steering toward the east. Finer details on frontal location will determine where rain chances will exist Wednesday-Thursday but suspect at this point it will be the south half of the state or from near Cape Canaveral and south for two days before state wide coverage again enters the picture closer to the end of the week and into next weekend. 


We might not see a sea breeze at all on the east coast come Tuesday which might put a damper on storm strength but time will tell, but which could mean some 'extra warm' high temperatures (like today and again tomorrow will be for those at the immediate east coast beaches).

Best Guess Or Bust? Strong Storms Central and South (East Side)

Muttering and Grumbling Overhead while Cloud To Ground Lightning Strikes over Cocoa and up toward Sanford into Volusia County late Yesterday

TODAY: Persistence would seem to be the best bet on today's forecast, but three in a row? Looks like there might be a shift south a bit today, as most models in the precipitation fields have been showing a dry slot toward I-4, with earlier activity and an apparent early onset across North Florida which might leave a part of the area scoured out for late day. Not to say there is 'no chance' of bonafide storms in the areas that were very active yesterday (e.g. North Volusia), only perhaps a chance that today will not be the case. Models vary vastly though, the best guess appears to be as shown below, though if enough moisture and outflows work hand in hand with the sea breeze on the east coast as the west coast sea breeze comes across (assuming it does), the area toward Sanford could get 'mean' with the lightning once again. 

The morning KSC sounding came in a degree colder than yesterday at 500mb and about the same at 700 mb, with a PWAT (precipitable water value around 1.96" down from 2.02" of yesterday mornings sounding). Concern is that some warming might occur at the lower level later today to offset storms or strength of them; timing will be of the essence today in regard to when what happens where. And the 'what' is a multitude of factors which won't be delineated as it is model dependant anyway, and who can fully trust them when they all differ in varying degrees?

Storms Will more Easily Move Offshore north of Brevard County, PERHAPS strongest activity will be a bit further south and just inland from the coast 

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Pattern shift to more isolated activity as dry-slots work across the state, but where they will be exactly can't be regarded with much certainty until 'the day of'. Time will tell.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front could reach as far as Central or even South Central and wash out. After upon which, it might 'weakly' lift back north toward Friday into the weekend as the large scale upper ridge out west retrogrades and builds north; in doing so ---  the large upper level trough over the East is to also retrograde a bit, enlarge,  and dig deeper south putting Florida in a stronger SW Flow aloft (which might also be a drier flow).

  

"Lightning Detectors Blew a Fuse" - Another Weak Tornado East Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Chance of Late Day/Early Eve 'Highly Charged" Storms

Storm building south from Seminole County and then working east into Brevard
Shown : Cape Canaveral at 7pm Looking NW

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday other than that moisture availability is not a questionable issue with the KSC 6AM sounding showing a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 2.02" (compared to winter when it can be down around 0.3") . 

Frightened Ghost Crab Eyes Building Clouds to the West 

Low pressure aloft is South of the Keys and is part of the contributor for the increased moisture as the dry air of 2 days ago is now east and out of the equation.  Frontal system in the upper midwest (north plains) can be seen in this image above, and that front might reach at least as far south as I-4 if not 'Dead Central' on Wednesday evening.

This image shows water vapor in the mid-upper levels.
The dark-orange area to the east of Florida
is the drier air from the other day. Upper low west of the Keys

TODAY:  Chance of a few storms that could become big lightning makers mainly along/near the St Johns into the interior Central and toward western parts of South Central. Steering per the KSC morning sounding is 'generally' from the west at 11 mph which is not strong enough to offset any particular random storm that might latch on to the early evening sea breeze and work more toward the south rather than east. Locations even at the beach could at least see some rain mainly north of Vero Beach by early evening. Watch out for the 'right movers' though or ones that work more toward the south along the east coast sea breeze.

NOTATION: Activity for showers (green)/thunder/stronger storms
 will be isolated at any one point in time
but probably most numerous from 5pm -7:30pm .
The area in blue could be extend further south another 50-75 miles.

TOMORROW - SUNDAY: Not a significant enough change in the pattern to be able to discern any daily fluctuations that are inevitable to arise. Overall, today doesn't look a lot different than yesterday other than 1) there is early activity along the west coast near Cedar Key which sometimes is an indicator of a more 'active day' ; and 2) the dry air that was appearing to be moving out at this time yesterday has already cleared the area as noted in the previous image.

Lightning over West Merritt Island as seen from Cape Canaveral

BEYOND: Monday and/or Tuesday we might see some drier air work in that will greatly restrict to completely inhibit storm formation in some certain wide swaths of the state - exactly where appears to be Central, but that could change. Otherwise, frontal boundary will work to I-10 on Tuesday and into North Central to Central on Wednesday. From there, things could get interesting in a different way but exactly how will leave it up to chance; though models do provide for some clues, I wouldn't trust them until we know where the front will end up. Regardless, rain chances remain in the equation for quite a while unless the front works further south than expected. At this point, it could get even  toward South Central but then retrograde back north as broad mid-level low pressure forms in the Northeast Gulf later in the week (next week).

"God Rays" Awaken "The Wheat" at Son Rise