Possible "Active" Weather Pattern Could Evolve Thursday - Tuesday

MONDAY:  "Flock of Seagulls"
November 30th, 2015 Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Warm and 'muggy' for November as the general 'warm streak' continues. Weather Service Offices across Central have noted the past Meteorological Fall Season (September - November) is in the Top Five for overall warmth this year , and this thread will continue into Wednesday. 

Though some ocean showers are possible any time the better rain chance begins Thursday as a frontal boundary cuts across Central and gets strung out across South Florida. This will be a very shallow boundary though with no true cold air behind it though temperatures will held off by increasing cloud cover after Wednesday.

THURSDAY:

 ***NOTE*** From this point on the 'blog' covers mostly a 'worst case' scenario type situation(s) as it stands this morning. Guidance is not in agreement to timing and location of future pressure centers and even within the GFS the character of upcoming days has varied vastly across the previous runs of the past two days.

Chance of rain late Wednesday Central and on Thursday after frontal associated rain that could occur late Wednesday. It is the post frontal scenario south of I-4 that will be the issue in regard to how far north the rains will occur  . So far, the GFS has been drawing a line from near Canaveral to Tampa and south, though at times even further south with the rain chances for Thursday and Friday with the model teasing the Dead Central line too often not to mention (and to South Florida especially).

FRIDAY: Continued partly cloudy to cloudy with easterly wind increasing as high pressure passes to the north of Florida and strengthens. How strong this high pressure center becomes will be the chief factor concerning Saturday and Sunday in regard to onshore east coast winds because if it strengthens as much as the last model run showed (and a few other runs as well a few days ago), then .........

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Chance of very windy conditions with rain showers. Wind gusts in rain showers if the GFS of 7AM this morning were to verify could be toward 45 mph? Huh?! Cold air aloft with strong pressure gradient..might even mean stronger winds than that near the east coast in rain storms..time will tell so if planning beach activities this weekend stay tuned to latest media sources.

The GFS showed winds as shown below at 2000 ft. beginning very early Saturday into Sunday accompanied by rain storms.

GFS 2000 Ft. Wind Forecast shows 30-40kts which could translate to
 higher ground level wind gusts in rain storms with cold air aloft
with gusts in the 32 - 45 mph range - purely speculation at this point

SUNDAY- MONDAY: Meanwhile, low pressure might well form ahead of the next approaching upper level trough approaching the Deep South States but still to the WNW of Florida. The GFS implies this upper level 500mb trough will take a negative tilt with a surface low pressure forming near the base over the north-central Gulf of Mexico in the presence of strong divergent jet stream winds aloft along the left exit region of the Southern Branch 300mb jet. If so, the low is then forecast to shift ENE to NE into Monday-Tuesday time frame across Florida as shown below.

If so, that could mean   there will be a decrease in surface winds on Monday and a break in any rain potential (but not entirely)...with another bout of fast moving (possibly severe) weather   in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. 

Additional model runs will be necessary for continuity in this very actively portrayed series of days as of this morning. 

Previous model runs have been hinting at a rather active patter anyway..but just exactly how these days  will evolve is surely going to vary in days to come with each model run - if , in fact, it will be active at all.

 -  Future posts will reflect any evolving or devolving issues - but will hold off for two days to watch the next 8 series of GFS model runs before running another blog update  -

FORECAST by the GFS model for Monday afternoon

**** NOTE: subject to change
in subsequent model runs ****

Increasing On-Shore Wind (East Coast) - Cloud Cover - Irregular High TIdes

"Irregular" High Tides - November 2013 (Before Beach Refurbishment)

TODAY- WEDNESDAY: Post frontal air mass modification quickly in motion as high pressure center moves from the Deep South toward the Carolina Coast into Wednesday eventually to near Nova Scotia by Friday.  On-shore east coast NE wind could well increase later today through Wednesday as the 2000 ft level winds are forecast to increase to 30kts (32 mph) later today. Some of that wind could work to the surface near to after peak heating resulting in gusts to near 34mph  today or simply increase the cloud cover.

As expected there is a broad temperature spread from east coast to west coast. The warmest temperatures were found near the immediate coast from the Cape and South. Patrick AFB in Cocoa Beach was warmer than the observing station in Miami which is located further from the ocean. 

As previously highlighted, the 'typical' warm spot in the Contingent U.S. in the winter (in the morning) outside of strong cold front passages is oft from Cape Canaveral and south along the A1A strip to Key West in the presence of nearly any onshore flow no matter what the strength of it.

This afternoon temperatures should not climb all that much especially near the east coast if the cloud deck increases due to the lower sun angle this time of year  combined with the placement of the aforementioned high pressure center -  highs eking into the lower 70Fs or upper 60Fs (cooler north of I-4).

Some sample temperatures at 5 AM were:

Crestview: 30F
Tallahassee:  41F
Jacksonville: 43F
Orlando International: 53F
Okeechobee: 52F
Ocala: 46F
Patrick AFB - Ft Pierce: 68F -69F  ****
Tampa Area: 52F
Punta Gorda: 52F
Ft Myers: 55F
Key West: 69F  *****
Miami: 63F
West Palm: 70F

Infrared Satellite Image Reveals During Overnight Hours the Extent of Clouds
Looming off the Florida East Coast

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING: Wind will remain gusty at times with steady onshore flow continuing. Full Moon is Wednesday into Early Thursday. Seasonal and astronomical High tides run quite high in combination as noted from the headline image from two years ago in the Fall. This event was followed by prolific sea weed coverage as well. 

Chance of sprinkles could begin late today into tonight but little more than that, if even. By Wednesday and more so Thursday chance of measurable amounts could occur though it will be very spotty and most areas will not see the showers. No one location appears will be completely immune from the rain chances though except the panhandle region.

Sunrise temperatures both days near 70F east coast and cooler inland. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud coverage.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Though wind for a time might even back more toward the NNE eventually they will become straight east into the weekend  most notably  into Monday morning. Warmer temperatures fully along the lines of round the clock 70Fs to lower 80Fs begins by Saturday and/or Sunday most areas but will have already begun along the east coast on Wednesday morning. 

The next frontal passage is anticipated to be weak and of less temperature influence than the previous front, with guidance implying the next heavy rain/storm chance to be a full week after Thanksgiving. 

'Warm' again the first few days of next week !!

Potential For 'Good' Rainfall Accumulations North Central Through Early Sunday - Much Cooler Monday

Disney Mystery Cruise - Late Afternoon,  November 2014

TODAY: Little change from previous post along with the continued disagreements between the NAM and GFS model runs. The NAM has upper level "voriticity' fields crossing the state mainly later today into this evening from the Central Gulf across mainly South Central Florida while the GFS holds off until tonight through early Sunday further north to North Central. Thus, timing and the location of any better rainfall totals is in debate. Regardless, cloudy skies are in the offing with an increased rain chance. 

Will continue to ride with the GFS model as latest satellite imagery does not appear to pair well with where the NAM is showing the energy to already be located. On the other hand, GFS output shows that its energy fields have yet to even truly evolve(not until at least later today toward the southern tip of Louisiana) - big difference.

The GFS and NAM and even the short term RAP all imply a warm front like boundary lifting north toward Central Florida by the noon time frame which might act as a convergence boundary catalyst to initiate some showers and even some thunder. If so, the boundary could lift as far north as I-4 if not even toward I10. Where that boundary ends up and wavers/halts will likely be the region to experience any potentially heavier rainfall totals. 

Will ride with 'winter climatology' and assume it might make it to I-4. Though rainfall totals might be higher in that region to even north of the boundary, the better chance of thunder would be south of the boundary to a line running from Vero Beach west to Sarasota notwithstanding the potential for lower concentration of activity almost anywhere and/or merely denser cloud coverage.

SUNDAY: Per GFS , it coughs out the best divergence aloft along the entrance region of the upper level southern branch jet accompanied by cold air aloft in the presence of an approaching frontal boundary which is to merge with the old 'warm front' to occur in the region in 'purple' of the image above sometime between 10pm tonight through sunrise Sunday morning or a bit later toward 10AM. Wouldn't be surprised to hear at least some 'elevated thunder' late tonight into the early morning as well given the cold air aloft.

Continued cloudy skies though as the front might temporarily stall across Central for the first half of the day before sliding into south Florida mid-late afternoon. The drier air though is still nearly a good 12 hours behind over North Florida.

MONDAY: Again, though the NAM and GFS differ on the location of the front itself, that is not the more important factor - and that is the arrival of drier air. 

Both concur it will arrive sometime between 5AM toward 9AM. Brisk NNW wind originally will gradually veer to North then eventually NNE.

If the NAM is correct in this regard,and climatologically it shouldn't be all that much a surprise, if some of the coolest temperatures for immediate east coaster might actually occur late afternoon Monday but this will be short lived if so. 

More than likely though, the coolest temps will be in the morning hovering at to just below the 60F mark from Cape Canaveral (but warmer south). Much cooler inland and north and south along the west half of the state toward Ft Meyers.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY : NNE winds eventually become E by Thursday. Increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds with sprinkles possible by Wednesday through Friday if not a few ground wetters but nothing beyond a few 1/100ths of an inch anticipated (compared to the potential for an inch or more this weekend in some locations).  

Cocoa Beach , Florida - Late Thanksgiving Day 2012

It still appears the warming trend will first be felt from Brevard County and south over night Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when from that time there-out temperatures will remain in the 70Fs range 24/7 but breezy up until later Friday. Choppy seas and rough surf with a tight pressure gradient only to relax as the next front approaches late weekend.

Frontal Assault en' Force Monday Central/North Florida through Tuesday

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 20th SUNRISE - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Frontal boundary has proceeded into the lower South Florida and loses most of it's surface based identity. Another front will be approaching over the weekend. Above the surface the front will 're-emerge' mostly about 2000ft AGL though could work to the surface. Model guidance between the NAM and GFS varies VASTLY on when any rain could or might fall this weekend (as a fore-warning) - though the two come very close to agreeing as to when the secondary front will sever our ties with any simulations of 'summer like' temperatures for quite some time to come in the long term even.

Otherwise, better rain chances appear to be over South Florida today - though a shower or sprinkle could occur almost anywhere south of I-4 , it just looks fairly unlikely - at least until at least late day.

SATURDAY: Herein enters guidance disagreement. The bulk of any rain that could fall this weekend is advertised by the NAM to occur overnight late tonight to the first parts of Saturday. The GFS contends the better rain chances will be late Saturday into at least the first half of Sunday. For continuity will run with the GFS with better rain chances being overnight Saturday into the first half of Sunday (though could end much sooner) or linger for a time south of I-4 into early afternoon. Either way partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies looks to be in the offing for Saturday and SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Secondary front to proceed down the state from North to South making headway across 'Central exact' between 4AM -6AM with 'sig. drying' of the air-mass in toe. (see below image from the GFS 7AM Model Run)

NNW to North wind at first eventually becomes North to NNE later in the day. Cold air advection in process all day - though the overall air mass isn't 'especially ' cold (could be much worse this time of year). The areas north of I-4 and especially up toward I-10 will feel the brunt of this front - with temperatures dropping right up to if not even after sunrise even as far south as South Florida Monday morning. 

Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs but if any cloud decks form near the east coast especially near the Cape area they might only see lower 60Fs with NNE wind around 15G26 mph. 50Fs will be realized further inland many areas and even 40Fs further north (if not cooler if the NAM verifies) in the mornings. I'm seeing the official forecasts for afternoon highs on Monday and wondering if they aren't a little too warm, so riding on highs closer to 63F - 67F range many areas north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line.

TUESDAY: Continued cool as well with overnight lows not really dropping much at all along the east coast south of the Cape (remaining in the lower 60Fs range). Temperatures on Tuesday might not recover all the much from the previous day but chances are it will be a few degrees warmer.

WEDNESDAY: ... On the other hand, recovery will begin full swing to 'warmer and less dry' overnight Tuesday night such that Wednesday morning along the east coast might dawn warmer then sunset the night before will have been.   Highs returning to seasonal norms for several days..but also with increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds decks likely working well inland accompanied by the ever-present potential for a sprinkle or even a " ground wetting short briefed rain"  smattered here or there.

THANKSGIVING: Typical fall like weather with easterly wind, partly to at times cloudy skies and perhaps a sprinkle if not even measurable rain fall in spotty locations but any accumulations  should be less than 1/10th of an inch.

Rain Chances Into Early Sunday - "Breezy Cool" Monday

Wednesday Morning Rain Showers Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Saga of muggy and above average temperature days continues as a well defined 'air mass change' has reached the far western Panhandle. 

Well defined 'air mass change' is delineated by a frontal boundary over the Western Panhandle. Although this front will reach Central Florida by early Friday it will be greatly modified with the deeper drying and coolest air never making much head way south of (in general) the "I-4" if even that.

Little overall change in thinking from previous 'blog post guesses' .

Chance of showers and some thunder possible especially after 2pm through 7pm (Central and parts of South Florida mainly later today). Heavy showers and some thunder is already being observed over parts of North Florida even at 6AM.  Chance that some of the afternoon to early evening activity could be accompanied by periodic bursts of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will watch for the degree of heating potential especially south of I-4 by early afternoon as some storms north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line could verge on the 'stronger side'.

FRIDAY: Front will stretch out across the Lake Okeechobee region with easterly flow returning. Deepest moisture initially will be over the southern 3rd of the state but this still appears to be rather short lived. Even a small rain chance could remain for a part of Brevard near the East coast but it currently appears the better rain chances will be further south as noted in the previous post. Not much change in temperatures from those of recent days - but at least it will be less breezy at the immediate east coast (e.g. - wind gusts this Thursday morning at Patrick AFB - Cocoa Beach - are higher then 25mph while some inland locations are observing 'calm' winds).

SATURDAY: Model guidance differs on what happens going into early Saturday. The latest NAM s similar to the old GFS run at the time   the previous blog post was made  - implying the front lifting back north and some southerly flow returning. The GFS now though merely leaves a light easterly flow- but either way..deeper moisture works back north. If the NAM is correct would need to re-introduce thunder chances from I-4 and south on Saturday which will guess would be the better of two 'bets'.

SUNDAY: Due to model guidance differences - the degree of rainfall coverage is also highly varied; however, for now would say rain chances remain on Sunday for Central (south of I-4) into only early  morning with partial clearing by later morning if not a bit sooner. Wind from the NNW-N and beginning to get breezy though the  more windy conditions await for overnight Sunday Night - Monday - Tuesday.

Wednesday Morning early on - Breezy Morning with temperature in mid 70Fs

MONDAY; Very Breezy and quite cool by this season's standards! Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs with winds in the 20 mph gusting toward 30 mph (especially along the east coast)- with lower-mid 70Fs restricted to South Florida. 

Will have to wait for a few more model runs to see if that temperature profile will remain - but the GFS has been holding steadfast on a very cool and breezy day but worth noting:

"The Warmest Spot in the Entire Country Monday morning it appears will be along the Florida East Coast from the Cape South toward far South Florida" ....

....... with even Ft Myers areas (for example) being colder than locations right at the beaches from Canaveral and South (which is normal for the late fall and winter season and has be reiterated several times in blog posts (last year and the years before).

BEYOND - THANKSGIVING: Air mass modification ensues full swing by Wednesday morning with easterly flow returning and and less 'windy'. Chance of cloud cover and possibly even some rain showers - however - for now will leave it at mainly cloudy cover from off the ocean until there is more model consistency. Yet another front will be on the approach a few days out.

WILL IT GET COLD THIS MONTH?!: GFS has been implying a taste of 'winter' for several runs in the November 30th - December 3rd time frame - but as usual- this is too far out in time for accuracy - but even the implication of it and seeing those colder temperatures in the 40Fs and even some upper 30Fs working into Central Florida has one reaching for the stocked up soup supply - might consider sdusitng off the cold weather gear  sometime soon.

Increasing Rain Chances into Saturday, Breezy and Cooler Sunday Onward

On This Day , November 17th - 2014

TODAY:  Brisk easterly flow and warm temperatures for this time of year to continue even into Saturday. Frontal boundary (second of two) to approach for passage late Saturday into early Sunday. 

As high pressure to the north moves off the east coast of the U.S. north of Florida the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight if not tighten more so , meaning winds will become more southerly with time going into Friday. Mostly dry today but north of Ft Pierce  there is a chance of a renegade sprinkle as far north as the Cape late today from around 3PM onward until after dark  but most areas will remain rain free.

WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY: As wind becomes a bit more southerly a slight increase in rain chances from Vero north toward Daytona very early Wednesday through early afternoon. Warmer overnight especially near the east coast and inland during the day. Wind will remain brisk and maybe increase a bit moreso.

On Thursday the front might slide into Central by early evening. Chance of Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Will watch for even a strong storm from I-10 south to North Brevard County by late afternoon or early evening, especially near the east coast from I-95 and eastward. Guidance has lately be focusing on some heavier rainfall totals from Volusia and north..and maybe as far south as nearly all parts of Brevard county as well depending on the model and the model run.

FRIDAY: Front to work toward Lake Okeechobee with almost no real discernible temperature changes especially near the east coast as winds immediately swing to onshore as noted in like manner as the past few days. 

Another front approaches however which will again swing winds around to the south but they will be much lighter than recent days. Meanwhile..the broad diffuse boundary will remain over South Central and South..which will mean rain chances for those areas on Friday as well, not so much north of a Sarasota to MLB line for the most part.

SATURDAY: Next front in the series to merge with the old remaining boundary which could spell out increased cloud cover and another chance of wider spread rain chances as it lifts back north again to at least Central if not further north (the jury is still out on how far north it will permitted to retreat before the next front moves in) , though thunder might be less likely due to increased cloud coverage.

SUNDAY: Front will be pressing south from Central to out of the state and even clearing Cuba during the first half of the day through nightfall. Breezy onshore NE winds will commence possibly overnight Sunday into Monday.

SUNDAY-THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Much cooler round the clocks, especially away from the coast from the Cape and South. Lows in many areas in the mid-upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs..but mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches from Cape Canaveral and South and further inland the further south one goes toward Lake Okeechobee. 

By Thursday  (of next week which is Thanksgiving Day) more direct onshore flow will begin to equalize temperatures out most areas (Thanksgiving) but also increase a small chance of coastal sprinkles and/or cloud coverage from stratocumulus cloud decks.

NOTE: Last year the first cold spell was November 1st when Canaveral saw 47F on the beach. The coolest at this location so far this year has been 66F.

November 1st Last Year - 2014

Last Gasp Chance of Shower or Thunder (Central) Today - Cooler/Breezy Weekend

Last Year on the Day before Thanksgiving

TODAY: Frontal boundary to inch through Central Florida and wash out across South Central into tomorrow. Meanwhile , close proximity of the boundary across East Central down to SW Florida could result in showers and perhaps some thunder from Brevard County (mainly) and South toward the Interior regions to east side of South Central/South Florida into early evening. (more likely it seems over South Florida)

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: A secondary boundary will approach on Friday. A brief warm up in prelude could occur on Thursday with a taste of recent days in the thermal realm....but any rain chances ahead of that boundary so far appear to be restricted to South Florida.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY: Next front should be on Central's Florida's doorstop within two hours either side of sunrise. To follow is a North to North-northeast wind surge resulting in dry and cooler air. Coolest mornings will be away from the coast (warmest ones south of The Cape along the east coast down through the keys), but in general over the weekend we'll be seeing red at nearly 10F degrees cooler   both  mornings and afternoons with temperatures running through the 60Fs and 70Fs but a bit breezy as well.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind becomes progressively more easterly as high pressure center passes to the north as temperatures moderate quickly by Tuesday..70Fs round the clock along the east coast returns with slightly moistening of the air mass and some periodic coastal cloud episodes.

FURTHER BEYOND: The question of the future is a broad as the sky is blue. One model run of the GFS showed a near tornadic type episode in about 10 days..the next run showed very cold for this time of year for the same time frame, and the latest GFS shows nothing significant at all but continued easterly wind flow and moderately pleasant temperatures.