Showers Today - Storms Some Strong/Severe Possible Wednesday Before Cold Air Moves In

TUESDAY MORNING , CAPE CANAVERAL FL

TODAY: Weak impulse has been moving north and east from far SW Florida since before day break. Plenty of cloud cover and some showers associated with this activity as can be seen below. 

Expect that at least in part some of this activity will approach Central and East Florida by mid-afternoon. Showers could begin to pop up randomly almost any where in isolated fashion. At this point thunder not really anticipated but it is possible mainly just west of I-95 toward US1 from Brevard County and north but the main thrust will be showers.  Blog will run 'conservative' on the thunder chances today not to so it is not possible though in an even broader area than shown below.

Warm today with highs in the upper 70Fs through lower 80Fs. Might be a mid-80F but cloud cover would mitigate that potential.

WEDNESDAY: Over night tonight there is a threat of Severe Weather in The Florida Panhandle mainly from near Tallahassee and west. Latest HRRR suggests the chance of a Significant Tornado in this area or at least at good 'chance' of severe weather.

By well after midnight toward mid-morning activity associated with the front might dwindle quite a bit but then begin to ramp up again mid-late morning. Wind SW and gusty and quite warm especially from I-4 and south with highs in the mid 80Fs possible.T

Though any storm chances at time actually have been showing per NAM guidance to be rather slim to none, the wind/temperature atmospheric profiles suggest that any storm that can form could be at least marginally severe toward severe almost anywhere. The 'red risk' zone is chosen as this is the region of best 'stacked wind' profiles from the low to upper atmospheric levels.

Taking the 'worst case scenario' little change was made from yesterday's post . Again, there is always the chance that there will be very little activity as most of the energy with the associated low pressure system will have lifted well north of Florida heading toward the Northeast States.

As noted previously, if possible might want to watch news tonight but more so have a local channel ready for live coverage should conditions warrant after 11AM tomorrow since chances are things could change quite a bit around mid-morning tomorrow any way in regard to what latest and later day models will show.

Most rain chances will end before dark Central Florida and more likely by around 4:30PM on Wednesday.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much colder and breezy especially Thursday with wind gradually tapering of with each day. 

Coldest morning appears will be Saturday morning still mainly iinland north of I4 though many areas will experience lower-mid 40Fs but upper 40Fs closer to the Central Florida East Coast and then further south. 

Gradual warm up Sunday afternoon toward upper 60Fs to near 70F but other days will struggle to get much above 65F if even that. 

One or two days might barely eke out 60F but again, not sure the GFS model can be trusted in the high temperature forecast given the time of year as the sun angle is increasing bit by bit every day and days are getting longer noticeably.

MONDAY - MIDWEEK: Another storm system approaching toward the 3RD, and so far not looking to be a ' sig.' weather maker though given little change in the large scale synoptic scale 'rhythms' would not be surprised to see at least 2 more severe weather threats in the next 2 weeks.

Risk Of Marginally - Severe Storms North/Central Wednesday - Much Cooler for Several Days

Sunrise , Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Warming and moistening trend continues through Wednesday afternoon with highs inland toward 80F today but closer to mid-upper 70Fs right at the beaches. Southeast - South wind this afternoon with increasing moisture mainly toward the east side of the state south of I-4. Chance of a light sprinkle from Southwest Florida toward the east coast of Brevard/Indian River much later today if not toward mid-evening (or merely increased cloud cover).

TUESDAY: Warmer with highs in many areas in the upper 70Fs - low 80Fs. Low pressure forming over SW Texas will begin to strengthen and RAPIDLY at that in the next 24-72 hours as it moves east then NE-NNE near the Appalachian chain bringing the whole gamut of weather variables with it along and ahead of it's trek up and down the eastern seaboard and the Smoky Mountains all the way up to Maine and back west toward the Great Lakes Region. This low pressure system is going to be HUGE.

For Florida, chance of showers and 'maybe' a thunderstorm toward Brevard/Volusia County late in the date due to convergence along the east coast us upper level winds begin to increase significantly with cold air aloft, though the surface based instability is so far forecast to be quite meager. 

Better chance of thunder might end up being offshore, but regardless even a good shower could contain surprisingly gusty winds in and near such activity some time after 2-3PM toward dark if they are able to materialize. The bigger story though will be warm temperatures even if cloud cover is present.

WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs in lower - mid 80Fs depending on cloud cover with a very breezy SW wind. 

Frontal boundary from attendant CYCLO-BOMBING low pressure system it now appears (rapid decrease in central pressure) will move across the state from early day through mid-late afternoon.

 Instability on the GFS model guidance is not shown to be but meager but much more per the NAM. Given the wind fields and temperatures aloft will highlight regions between the purple lines as having a chance of severe wind gusts (or more) with the better chance near to north of I-4. Have included south of I-4 as suspect better instability might be found there given the later point in time of day and storms 'might' be moving in as well as that winds are sufficient aloft for such type of activity. 

Any rainfall totals should be low and so far looking at less than an inch of even less than 1/2" due to quick storm motion. 

SPC  (The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK) and local NWS Offices are monitoring the situation and local news stations I suspect will begin to CHIME IN by early afternoon Wednesday if not sooner if conditions warrant. 
(for the previous event Channel 7 , WFTV in Orlando, had good coverage as did Channel 13).

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much cooler to cold mornings.

 Friday and Saturday mornings look to be the coldest with lows in the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30Fs inland/north with afternoons barely eking out 60F though the GFS might be over-estimating how cold the afternoons will be given the sun angle is becoming increasingly higher and days are getting longer. 

Saturday now looks to be the overall coldest day as at least one if not two additional frontal boundaries could transparently move through with no effects other than to re-enforce the lower temperature regime that will be put in place for several days. 

Cat on a Concrete Path

This upcoming system is the Second of a kind (from the one last week) and thoughts are now we might be seeing another one rearing it's stormy thunderheads in about a week after this one; though too soon to say,  the trend seems to be on and they often come in threes. 

Looking at the latest GFS now coming out as I type, indeed, it is showing another system late next Wednesday and/or Thursday time frame. 

Otherwise, all should be nearly dry after Wednesday afternoon for quite a number of days but very cool to cold until Sunday afternoon.

Risk of Late Day Shower Monday/Tuesday - Strong/Marginally Severe Wednesday

"Portuguese Man-o-War Season Appears to be in Bloom Along the East Coast "

TODAY- MONDAY: Light wind becomes progressively more southerly with time with cool mornings and normal temperatures in the 70Fs range. Slight chance of a very isolated shower or only an increase in late day cloud coverage on Monday. There is a very stealthy dry layer from about 700mb - 500 mb above the ground which will take quite a bit of time to fill in with sufficient moisture.

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary and evolving  "cyclobomb' low pressure system might be to evolve in the Deep South to head Northeast in coming days which will be a headline maker in regard to who will or won't receive snow from the system. 

Further south a cold front will stretch  into the Gulf of Mexico and chances are a warm front of sorts will lift  north by Tuesday afternoon from south to north across Florida putting the state squarely in the 'warm sector' south of the boundary. 

There is a chance on this day (with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs) that a late afternoon to early evening shower or even some thunder might occur this day mainly Brevard County and south and then much further north as well toward the Panhandle region and along I-10 to the east.

WEDNESDAY: Chance as of latest two model runs and as noted in the previous post some time ago of strong to marginally severe storms. 

Worth watching though in case it appears that perhaps even a better chance of severe storms might evolve. 

Chances are all news stations will start to herald the alert mode in the next 48 hours though if the trend in the model output continues on its current trend.

 Unlike the last events of yore, this time it will be occurring (or not occurring if that ends up being the case)..in daylight hours to near or after sunset. More to tell along those lines come Monday and Tuesday though.

It was on February 22- 23RD 1998 that the worst tornado outbreak in Central Florida history occurred during the overnight hours.

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Wave goodbye to a supposed early 'spring' as temperatures to fall back into winter mode for a few days. 

Not at all unusual this time of year as the sun angle is higher and higher in the sky but the colder and dense area further north refuses to find it's final resting place back around the poles for another 2 1/2 months at least . 

Especially given what appears to be a persist deep upper trough over Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. associated with what is referred to as a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (or -NAO) . El Nino southern jet streak still soaring overhead the Deep South and at times Florida is to continue which helps to up the ante on severe threats. 

(Side Bar: Forecasts indicate El Nino will be long gone by the time June rolls around if not by August).

***Much colder Thursday morning and afternoon and WINDY Thursday, but especially Friday through Saturday mid morning is when the 'coldest' of air will find its way in after a secondary frontal boundary slices through.

Gradual  warm up by SUNDAY and especially next Monday.

Potential For Strong to Severe Storms Will Exist After 8PM , Warm on Tuesday

   "Fillmore"

TODAY-OVERNIGHT: There will be the potential for strong to even severe storms late tonight through around 4-5AM Tuesday morning though location of such storms and timing is very difficult at time to determine due to   model run inconsistencies and little agreement between different models, notwithstanding uncertainty in a wide variety of ways. 

All guidance does bring a number of factors into the play in the wind fields with very cold air aloft such as near -15C at 500mb (20000ft) which is unusual for Central Florida almost any time of year. Shearing wind profiles both in direction and speed combined with ample (but barely ample) instability (which is a big factor that might reduce the severe chance to near zero) is a big question as is any real drive (reason) for discrete storm formation.

The more 'organized' part of the pattern set up passes across the Panhandle region earlier on in the form of a broken sort of squall line which might die off as it gets toward Tallahassee region in the early evening hours.

FURTHER SOUTH: Chance of showers and who knows, maybe a thunder across parts of mainly South Central to Central Florida moving up and out from the south to southwest then offshore, possibly as soon as mid afternoon up through near sunset.

NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIGHT NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE
AS WELL AS NEAR TH PORT CHARLOTTE AREA

THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS though is after the 10PM through around 4AM though this could change. There is a chance that few of any areas will even get severe weather or, in fact, any rain at all. Chances are things will become a bit more clear by mid-late afternoon what the evening and over-night have to bring, so s would advise keeping at least one ear leaning toward local news channels either during the dinner or bed times hours.

TUESDAY: Regardless of what does or does not occur late today or tonight, there is agreement that the 'All Clear' can be heralded before sunrise with clearing conditions probably even before sunrise. Tuesday looks to be a warm one with a cold front still to come toward sunset for Central Florida and then the remainder of the state after dark. Highs could reach mid-upper 70Fs many areas, even some lower 80Fs in a few locations contingent upon cloud coverage.

BEYOND: Though a front will be going through there is not a big temperature change behind it. Even that has been going up and down in the forecasts but best bet for now will be to settle on temperatures running near climatological norms...and considering that lately the CLIMATE has been no where close to LOGICAL lately for Florida (cold temperature wise) any upward climb in the mercury would be warmly welcomed (at least for those who do not prefer colder / cool weather).

There is another front or two to come in the next 8 days but so far (fingers crossed) none of them have that much of a 'shock value' to them in the temperatures. After the recent thread of days and then the other string of them prior, not much will be a cold shock any more. Almost no where to go but up from here on out .

ON THE OTHER HAND: Next POTENTIAL THREAT for SEVERE WEATHER is being shown to be around the 23-25th time frame. That chance showed up a while back..disappeared and has now re-appeared with fairly good consistency over the past 24 hours but it's still nearly 8 -10 days out in time and much can change. Given what I'm seeing now..it is at least worth noting for the time being as the factors that could eventually come into play (if so) would be all too sufficient for severe weather for  someone in the Southeast states and/or along the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Cool/Windy vs Cold/Breezy Seesaw Pattern Through Wednesday - Rain Chances Today

TODAY: Very sketchy in the details today which will make or break areas in the rain chance (or rainfall totals) arena mainly fast East Central and Southward into interior portions thereof. 

Pre-sunrise temperatures across the state are running along an   anomaly of cooler air in a region such as say interior Dade County than the A1A strip of Brevard County as can be seen in the graphic below. Remember those warmer regions as those might well be where the better chances of rainfall (especially after 5PM will begin later today) might occur toward and after dark.

State Temperatures (at 2 meters AGL) at 5AM show  warmer going from west to East as
opposed to North to South

LATER TODAY: Wind should die down some after sunrise as a low pressure area  forms along the inverted trough exemplified by the temperature and wind profiles shown above. Exactly where and when this will turn into a closed circulation will affect who sees measurable rains today (if any) and who does not. 

It is also noted that where it is warmest now at sunrise will also be the warmest locations all day today for the most part, mainly from east of Orlando and south to around all of South Florida south of The Big Lake, progressively cooler toward the west coast even this afternoon.  

From the west, mid-level low pressure system moving east and north will usher in a vigorous upper level wind field pattern with more than sufficient Bulk Shear and even  helicity (north half) for severe storms; however, instability will be close to non-existent so no concern in those regards. 

On the other hand, with such wind energy aloft coincident with the low forming 'somewhere' along to just east of the South Half of the State, rain chances should increase as those winds aloft move over the state late today into early through late evening. 

Could hear some thunder mainly east of Ft Pierce and South out toward the Bahamas and maybe a rumble aloft as far north as off shore Cape Canaveral, but it will be the "rain chances on the increase" that is primary element for today's composition. 

Totals could vary from none to as much as 1/2" or more depending on where the low sets up later today by the time all is said and done (before sunrise Sunday).

SAMPLE ONLY of what might evolve by early evening.
Noting best chance for measurable rainfall might also be where it is
generally warmest at sunrise this morning . Yellow bounds
indicate where rain fall is also possible.
Best chance though timing wise will be after 5pm - 1AM.

Otherwise, apart from the rain chance today,  the  theme through Wednesday will be cooler to colder temperatures and breezy to down right windy at times through Wednesday.

SUNDAY: Rain chances exit well east before sunrise with cold air advection in full throttle with gusting morning and afternoon wind from the Northwest. 

Mixing  with cold air advection and cleared skies might make for gusts above 25 mph for a time with highs barely eking out of the lower - mid 50F's on Sunday; dying off a bit Sunday night toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: Will watch for a 'cold socket' across Central Florida interior. Wind lighter by far   interior but not so much along the immediate east coast as the strengthening low pressure now far from the state lifts up the U.S. east coast (off shore). Some guidance has been showing upper 30Fs into South Central Florida away from the coasts but warmer than that to the north. Example would be colder inland of Stuart than inland of Daytona Beach.

Another front will be on the way however, overnight Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Breezy to windy at times during the day after a cool start but not quite as cold as Monday morning with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs . 

Wind from the west if not even SW for a time. No rain chances though and probably not many clouds but for a brief period (maybe overnight).  Front to move across the state swiftly after dark.

WEDNESDAY: Monday was the first colder morning, Wednesday will be the next colder morning with the frontal passage going on while most sleep - a bit breezy at that as well. Highs lower than on Tuesday as a result, closer to the way it will be on Sunday.

Pod of Pelicans Soars Past During a Dramatic Florida Sunrise  

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The windy and very cool to a bit cold seesaw shenanigans end Thursday morning as the last of the family of fronts will have cleared the area. 

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend with easterly flow becoming established. 

Forecasts will likely be speaking of lows in the lower - mid 50Fs (mainly inland) and highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs for a number of days to follow, though with the prolonged onshore flow and vertical depth of it over time , showers will come back into the picture by Monday or Tuesday (but light and low topped) , maybe even  for a number of days ..or perhaps it will amount only to decks of stratocumulus clouds. Too far out in time to know.

No severe weather or even a cold fronts for that matter seen for a decent stretch of time,  maybe a good 4 days at least from Thursday through the weekend and into the beginning of the following week.

Cool, Cold, and Colder into All of Next Week

Wednesday Surprise Sunrise

TODAY: Not much to really be said today through the upcoming week once we squeegee past today.

Cold front on the slide through the Panhandle this morning producing rain and some thunder near the Gulf Coast. The boundary will slide northeast-ward as it progressively sinkingly progresses east and south with time slowly but surely toward Central Florida late this evening.

Chance of rain showers, lighter but lingering rain, and some thunder possibly even with a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon to early evening North and parts of North Central. 

This graphic might even be generous though might need to watch the Dead Central Region for a trend per the previous blog post the other day for a better thunder chance. Only change this post was to shift the 'thunder chance' a bit further north though that might have been hasty. It all depends on how quickly the boundary reaches Central. The slower it is the less chance of Thunder near the Dead Central demarcation zone.

 

BEYOND: Nothing much to say. As noted in previous post there was a chance that another low pressure area could end up forming near the East Coast of Florida and move away which would have little effect, or it would form well to the west of the State which could result in a Severe Weather chance. 

The former option over the past 48 hours has been winning out so will ride with no chance of Severe Weather come late Saturday or Sunday though there will be a period of increased cloud cover and maybe some light rains.

The bigger story through the upcoming week beginning  Friday morning will be 

A. Cool to even rather Cold Temperatures;
B.  at times combined with Wind

After the boundary's passage the cooler air will mostly work in well toward Sunrise and mid Morning Friday making for a very breezy and very cool day considering recent days like yesterday tying some record high temperatures in a few locations. 

Though not 'real cold' it will be quite cool. Another 'low' to form near South Florida but extremely weak in nature could create another shower chance sometime over the weekend but the bigger storm will be as it strengthens over the Gulf Stream waters while pulling away toward the northeast.  

Circulation behind it plus high pressure building in from the west will draw colder air south, down, and across  the peninsula of Florida in repeated various modes in coming days.

SUNDAY MORNING  for example will be the real first day of such but the theme continues as consecutive 'reinforcements' in the form of 'short -wave troughs come across from time time only to further exasperate the situation.

By perhaps Wednesday - Friday mornings we might be hearing talks of freeze warning for parts of North Central Florida or at least wind chill advisories. 

Some days will never see 60F, but other days will see lower to maybe mid 60Fs with a west wind which might be refreshing, especially when keeping in mind that within another month the consecutive days of cold to even very cool weather will be drawing to a close . 

Overall,   westerly to NW winds more than anything else after Sunday, dry and cool to even cold a few days. 

No point in saying much more than the change out from the described should begin sometime next weekend.

Rockin' to the 80Fs (Tuesday) - Chance of Rain/Thunder Late Wednesday/Thursday

Sunrise Sunday Morning Upon Cocoa Beach

TODAY: High cloud canopy clearing from north to south such that by the time one reads this post Central Florida and all of The North will have already cleared. 

There remains a mid-level pocket of moisture (and clouds) that guidance implies will be on the way out heading toward the hours of 1-3PM. Low level moisture will increase a bit though, but overall we'll see more sun today it so appears with highs in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

TUESDAY: Easterly to eventually southeast wind. This day appears to be the Finest of all in regard to warmth and least cloud cover with highs reaching the lower to maybe a mid 80F well west of I-95 with the immediate coasts remaining in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how far north one traverses and how close to the ocean one is. Ocean temperatures are only in the mid 60Fs off Canaveral and even cold further north but warmer toward Ft Pierce and south due to the proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

WEDNESDAY: High clouds again surge northward in advance of an approaching cold front. The attendant low pressure center from this front will be forming near the Four Corners region today and tomorrow and move east then NE toward Nova Scotia. As such, not much torque to slice the front right through but rather it will be a bit of a dragged out process. 

By the time the front reaches Dead Central from a line near Tampa to Melbourne, FL later on Thursday  the low pressure is nearly in the North Atlantic off Nova Scotia (as opposed to prior frontal passages with the low (for instance) moving off the Carolinas).  

Best chance of rain and maybe some thunder will be near and north of I-4, though it is possible that as far south as a line from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay region and north could get into some late day rain showers as well.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and maybe some thunder (maybe even an isolated strong storm but not going into that on this post though temperatures aloft and sufficient bulk shear imply some winds gusting toward 50 mph is always possible) will be along and south of a line from near Ormond Beach to Cedar Key...and north of a line  running from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota (see graphic below). Best chance of  thunder appears to be about 40 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.

FRIDAY: Front to rapidly clear with the colder air to follow. This front is going through a bit like in November fashion earlier in the season meaning a quick turnaround to Northeast winds post frontal passage with quickly modifying air mass. Highs on Friday in the 60Fs and breezy...likely cloud cover will accompany the wind as well...especially by Saturday when some showers might be added to the mix.

BEYOND: Next chance of a Bout of Severe Weather begins to Emerge as Soon as Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico. 

After the frontal passage on Thursday a region of 500mb energy down through the lower levels will already be crossing North Mexico moving east. Vorticity from the front remains strung out across Central Florida and back nearly the whole way to connect with the next system approaching in the mid-upper levels from the West. 

As that Disturbance rides along the boundary the GFS hedges on kicking up at least one surface low in the Central Gulf to move east northeast to northeast going into the Sunday/Monday time frame.

This might well change though as it is still a good week out. Guidance has been bouncing around on this 'notion' for days now already.

 One option has been for a very weak low to spin up east of the state which would mean nothing to Florida..but if it spins up well to the west of the state and moves east..different story.  Latest implies a "Marginal - Slight Severe Risk" of Severe Weather Late Sunday/Mid-Day Monday Time Frame for North and Central Florida . The usual caveat already being also suggested (Low CAPE / high shear environment). 

We'll be staying tuned to this potentially evolving situation though - for now, just a heads up as again -- at this point in time it's nothing more than an itchin'.