Chance of Strong to 'Pulse Severe" East Central to Southern Interiors Late This Afternoon

Night Storm Moves Away from the Coast  One Evening Last Week

TODAY: Not a whole lot different on this morning's KSC Atmospheric Balloon Sounding from yesterday and the day before. Temperatures  aloft remain on the colder side with 500MB around -8C . A bit of drying has gone on but that is mostly restricted to a region near to north of I4. Based on satellite loops it looks like the driest of air has made it about as far south as it will get and might even begin to retrograde back north during the day. If so, the region in area of Northern Volusia County could get 'interesting' late today with strong winds possible with the boundary in the area. 

Otherwise, the one thing different today is that it looks like we'll be seeing an east coast sea breeze (East Central) which did not occur yesterday. Latest KSC sounding shows steering could be toward the east at 12-17 mph with a very 'shallow sea breeze' possible, possibly curving more parallel to the coast . 

Wind even at only 950MB which is not far above 'the deck' are still a good 15kts right now but expect they will decrease going toward noon time or so at that level. Regardless, they are much lighter below that level so unless those winds higher up  mix to the surface with a vengeance with day time heating,  a sea breeze should be able to manifest at least as far north as the Cape. Further south, no problem from about Vero and south. The sea breeze is important in regard to stronger storms as it would act as a focusing mechanism for low level convergence once the west coast sea breeze and/or out flow boundaries form inland activity propagate toward the east coast.

Storm Forming right along the East Coast Wednesday afternoon which produced frequent lightning and rain totals over 1.5" inches along the Cape Canaveral into Cocoa Beach areas in particular in a very short amount of time.

Convective temperature is a reachable 87F.  With a boundary (a front that was first thought might pass through by this time today several days ago) still north of North Central Florida and making no further progress...convergence near the boundary up toward Volusia County coupled with an sea breeze might make for some  'interesting' atmospheric festivities later today. 

Otherwise would watch down the coast toward the north end of Port Canaveral, Port St John, Mims, Titusville, Oak Hill regions and perhaps inland toward Sanford from there.  Other areas further south and nearer the coast from Port Canaveral southward to Vero Beach and west to  between US1 to 10 miles west of I-95 a secondary area. The third area of interest around Lake Okeechobee down to the Glades (in which is the lowest confidence at time for "Strong' storms) 

Activity might go into the early evening once again as well in very isolated areas.

SATURDAY: Similar to today but with likelihood of the east coast sea breeze making better inland progress. Most activity will favor near and south of I-4 with possibly earlier in the day showers/storm near the east coast propagating inland, but again, will depend on how quickly the east coast sea breeze gets going in earnest and how strong it is. Steering aloft will still be from the SW but does not look like it will be  either strong nor deep enough to bring storms back to the coast at this point.

SUNDAY: Storm chances restricted to interior and west side of the state though might see morning showers near the east coast up through early afternoon.

BEYOND: All eyes on Hurricane Matthew. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center all point to-ward a Cat 1 - Cat 2 Hurricane passing between 150-300 NM east of Cape Canaveral. The trend has been 'east' over the past 24 hours . Here is only a sample below. IF such a course were taken it could mean a day of higher surf and if the storm were close enough a brief `18 hours o less 'window of opportunity' for small squalls near the east coast to work from NNE to south down the coast around the most western periphery of the storm (as seen on the GFS model).  Given the official forecast track, if it were to verify it is unlikely Florida will see rains directly related to the system, but high surf and possible minor beach erosion is another matter.

That would be sometime on Wednesday -Thursday time frame.

 Much can change though.

 Consult the National Hurricane Center or best local source of Official Information . 

Here is a sample of some forecast tracks.

Isolated Large Rainfall Totals - Even a Strong Storm or Two Possible into Mid Evening

Weekend Starts out with Baby Blues and Pinks at Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Very little change 'overall' in scheme of things from past two days. Atmospheric moisture on the KSC sounding came in a bit higher than expected, instability a  bit higher as well, with temperatures aloft a bit cooler even yet still and a convective temperature of only 87F (easily attainable today) with zero cap. 

All things consider if nothing else were to change since that 6AM sounding (which might be a big assumption) and that were to be representative of a fairly large area of Eastern Portions of Central toward South Central (even South) all things spell out then to thunderstorm coverage  pretty well written in for today for this area (mainly south of I-4 and along to east of  I75 toward I-95.

Storm motion on the other hand again is just barely above a drift toward the east at about 5-8 mph which would not overcome a stronger seabreeze. Regardless, once boundaries and outflows get set up from lake breezes and even smaller early day showers which tend to disrupt   weak low level wind  fields, today looks like another 'just about anything goes' type of day.

Even last evening storms went up along the East Central Coast while the east coast sea breeze itself was on the approach to the west coast (that is, well behind the east coast sea breeze). That has been the going fad the past 4 days in a row so will not stray from the pattern, not to say that the same will happen again today though despite that late evening storm fests of the past 4 evenings between the Cape south toward St Lucie County.  Will it be again? 

Otherwise, swell seems to be dying down just a bit from yesterday while the GFS of a few days ago showed the peak of the swell from Karl would be the weekend this does not appear to be the case based on the morning surf check. Either way, rip tides a situation to be of concern for beach goers over such a fine weekend for late September with highs in the lower 90Fs once again inland.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: These two days look like a variation of the same theme, though Sunday or both days might have a slight decrease in activity we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, a frontal boundary that has already cleared the Rockies is moving east but greatly impeded by high pressure to the east of it. Regardless, the upper level support will gain reinforcements allowing the system to find its way into the Deep South toward at least Central Georgia by Tuesday slowly but surely.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look like there could be an uptick in rain chances with again strong storms possible with colder air aloft and better westerly steering currents to the ENE-NE (toward the east coast).  Temperatures on these days might not get as warm as a result of increased cloud cover earlier in the day.

LONGER RANGE: Already eyes on next  tropical system if it comes about, to be Matthew. The GFS is spelling out Gloom and Doom (Cat 3 or 4) Hurricane making landfall somewhere between Louisiana to the Central  panhandle of Florida in several runs ; however, so far it's the 'out-liar' for the time being. Other guidance shows a system running into Mexico of much less strength. 

Regardless, the frontal boundary in question for the time being appears will be bridged over by high pressure aloft and wash out accompanied by a  "deepening  moisture  laden easterly enhanced flow" which could spell for rain chance increases along the east coast from JAX south to Brevard come latter portions of next week whence  what might be 'Matthew' by that time would still be well out in the far Eastern Caribbean at best. Much to watch for...and not necessarily that any of the just aforementioned will even materialize.

Regardless, some interesting weather changes or events might be in the stock pile for the pickins' in days ahead.

Thunderstorms Again Today through Week's End

Cocoa Beach Pier Tuesday Morning

TODAY-THURSDAY: So far we're on track since the previous post on Saturday which suspected higher rain chances for Monday and Tuesday (which was a big flip flop from previous outlooks).

Today is similar to yesterday with two key differences (at least).

1. Cape sounding came in with a CAP between 5000-10,000 feet with convective temperature in the lower 90Fs with a cap strength of 2 which is difficult to break. On the other hand..

2. The deepest moisture appears to be on the east side of the state.

What this means is that it is possible there will be, or could be, a later start of initiation along the far east side unlike yesterday where the big totals came in with the MLB Airport scoring big time. It might mean stronger wind gusts but then again on the flip side..hard for storms to get going. It'll be a matter of timing and locale..but will shoot from the hip and watch for the ever present chance of surprises.

One difference however, today, is that west coast activity has got an earlier start and it appears OFBs (Out-Flow Boundaries) might be on their way toward the Central north/south axis of the peninsula even as of 12:30pm.  Steering continues from west to east but is light and not strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. 

Outflow from western poofy showers might meet the east coast sea breeze somewhere near to west of I-95 in several hours from now so again highest rainfall totals for the day could come in somewhere in Western Brevard , Osceola, Volusia - South toward Martin County with another area over interior South Florida. Temperatures aloft are almost identical to yesterday.

WEDNESDAY: Again, a similar set up but inevitably variations in the theme will translate to potentially a big difference on where and when heaviest rain totals will add up. There are implications a mid level trough axis could slice NE to SW across and down the state which might add a convergence focus for tomorrow, however overall PWAT (Precipitable water) could lower if the GFS is correct. The NAM says, 'not so fast' and keeps the deep moisture in place. Tomorrow will be a new day so time will tell so best we can do is tell it like it 'T - I - S' when that time comes after today's atmospheric gala.

INTO THE WEEKEND; In general though the GFS brings a weak boundary at the surface through it's but barely a temporal wind shift that washes out the lowest level westerlies leaving the mid level winds from the west to WSW in place. Moisture goes up and down each day as temperatures aloft remain static. Overall, looks more like the 'summer that never' happened in the thunderstorm regime is having its day in court this week, possibly into the weekend.

Forecast Flip Flop For Monday - Wednesday From 'Dry' to 'Wet' ?"

Harvest Moon Setting Saturday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: "Julia's Memory' continues to spin seemingly on mere momentum generally  about 300NM east of JAX moving little since yesterday afternoon. All in all today appears to be somewhat similar to yesterday but with a greater focus on late day storm activity more toward the West up and down the state rather than only 'The South' -   some other storms might fire along the Lake Okeechobee Breeze earlier in the day (like yesterday). 

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY:

Emphasis on this period may well be largely contingent upon a combination of what occurs where there is a break in the Atlantic - Southern Plains ridge axis that has prevailed much of the summer. Latest NAM and to less of a degree , the GFS, imply there will be a break as an upper level trough traverses west to east further north and makes a bit of a tele-connection with 'The Julia Environment' east of Florida. 

Net affect is that as moisture remains over Florida or even increases into Monday through Tuesday  Julia or part of what remains 'appears' might become absorbed into that 'troughing' action over the  southeast Deep South ..ie., Florida in particular. 

If so, we could see vorticity (upper / mid level energy) across the state at random times which acts to increases rain chances when in combination with typical day time heating and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The GFS and NAM depict the 700mb temperatures might lower a few degrees which would make for earlier in the day shower/storm initiation and greater coverage overall.

 Both indicate, the NAM to much more of a degree and not trusted as the model output is showing 'significant rainfall totals', an increase in steering of activity toward the East Coast Monday and Tuesday, but both do show hints of this to occur in some form or fashion. 

The net result overall is increased chances of rain and thunder with two day rainfall totals from 1-3" possible if this will be the case as described (generally). Situation is worth monitoring if not for interest's sake or if planning out door activities either day. The pattern ends on Wednesday, perhaps as rain chances shift to the south half of the state.

Saturday Morning Facing West - Cape Canaveral Sunrise

BEYOND: Moisture from 'said set' up aforementioned shifts out to the east and dissipates per latest as what might be a named tropical system approaches from the east ...well east rather out in the Atlantic. Chances are if this system gets named it will lift out to the north well before ever reaching Florida.

Showers-Storms Mainly Away From Coast - Highest Concentration South Central to South

Early Afternoon Thunderstorm Closes in on The Cape on Thursday

TODAY: Appears that what remains of a 'boundary' which focused most activity on Thursday across Central Florida might have shifted a bit south. As a result, greatest thunderstorm chances today might be over mostly South Central to parts of South Florida.

Steering less that 6 mph  means very slow storm motion. Temperatures aloft similar to yesterday as well. Overall not much change from yesterday other than where the greater potential concentration of storms will occur. Early evening storms might too be able to manifest more toward interior portions of Central as sea breezes from both coasts approach each other, but more toward the west side.

Swell from Julia moved in and coupled with a near autumnal full Harvest Moon the high tides running are much higher than normal as evidenced this morning with higher waves as well. Rip currents will be a hazard within a few hours of low tide or during the prime swimming times around noon to early afternoon.

WEEKEND: Really not much different than what has been advertised meaning mainly interior storms possible focusing more toward the Southern half to one third of state with temperatures similar to today and yesterday. Random showers could move ashore early evening through morning along the east coast mainly from the Cape and north any evening though outside of the day time driven activity but if so will be extremely isolated. 

BEYOND: The GFS has been attempting to hint that some energy could result in a "Julia Revisited' as a piece of vorticity breaks off and circulates around a ridge building across the Southern U.S. come early to mid next week while the remnant surface low becomes absorbed in the next trough in the mid levels to move east over top that ridge. Either way does not at time seem to make much of a difference in the sensible weather across Florida  other than that there might be a day come  Tuesday or Wednesday when rain showers will be more likely. Otherwise, increasingly obvious light , easterly flow commences and mainly rain-showers with possibly some thunder well inland to west side of state will be the norm much of next week (as it stands now).

Showers and Thunder Possible (Mainly Central)

Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Over Merritt Island Florida
Closing in On the Outer Most Barrier Islands of The CAPE on Wednesday

SYNOPSIS: Up front does not look to be as active today as yesterday. A boundary easily visible projecting from Julia lays nearly East/West along to just north of I-4  (see image below) and might drag a bit further south during the course of the day.  

Instability will be moderate today with precipitable water through the column at to over 2" yet still. KSC sounding revealed this moisture is rather evenly distributed through the column and not focusing in the low and mid levels which is not exactly supportive of strong storms. Most thunder today should manifest near this east/west  boundary somewhere near to mainly south of I-4 over the Interior and toward the East Coast late afternoon though earlier day activities from the east coast sea breeze may form, but mostly restricted to be rain showers until later today (but not exclusively).

Though thunder possible over the "Glade Regions' have omitted from this post due to low populace in that zone, hence low regard.

Yesterday's boundary interactions created for the better 'light shows' along Central Florida where a few SWS's were issued (Special Weather Statements). Rainfall varied varied from zero to just over 2" in the Rockledge- Canaveral Strip and down the outer barriers common with SW Flow aloft as was the case yesterday .

Temperatures aloft today are rather warm with 700mb coming in at nearly 11C which is quite warm (too stable?) with zero capping and a convective temperatures of easily reachable 87F. 500mb temperatures are not faring much better.   

Rainfalls today not expected (at this point) to be as high as yesterday but somewhere in Central Florida might wring out some high totals given the overall scheme of things, that at this point it does not look like a strong storm wording is warranted.

Steering from west to east is also much weaker today so it is questionable to the blogger if thunder (in Cloud to Ground form) will make it out to the barriers. Will give it the old college try and say, 'heck, let's go for it'..but not so sure about that. The mid level boundary on satellite imagery (as referred to above) is too alluring to deny that potential altogether.

At One Point Yesterday Storm Activity Did a Fine Job of Tracing the Coast

 BEYOND: Most rain-shower activity from Friday into Saturday and Sunday might be focused more toward Central and South Florida with areas north of I-4 remaining ' in question'  at least in regard to current projections.  

Rain chances really drop around Tuesday as onshore flow (easterlies) set up from the surface in the mid levels with spotty atmospheric moisture depths  meaning potential for coastal showers early through mid morning working inland during the day but thunder chances overall even during later in the day inland look a bit meager. But where those if any chances will be is too far gone to bother speculating.

SUPER DUPER BEYOND: Could the first cold front be on the approach late month? Would not be out of the question as the GFS and other guidance is showing signs of front to drop through sometimes between September 26 - October 1st.  Time and time again have seen the first front of the year between September 21st to October 1st. 

Fear not. Latest GFS shows temperatures will absolutely PLUMMET with this boundary if it makes it through to below even 70F before October 1. The ever true sign of fall's harbinger in Canaveral from my history here has been the elusive 67F on old mercury. From that time on..the gigs up, summer's over, and cooling bills begin to decrease.

Storms Possible Through Friday( Mid Afternoons into Early Evening )

Much of Forecast For Peninsular Florida will depend on the remaining
  'Breadth of Influence'  from Tropical Storm Julia 

SYNOPSIS: As anticipated in previous post, thunderstorms and/or rain showers will be possible into the weekend. With time (especially Saturday and/or Sunday) most of the activities will be more toward the interior areas and then 'west side story' begins, but until that time it appears as of this morning enough of a southwest flow aloft through the 'mid-level's of the atmosphere will steer activity or propagate storms toward the east coast over time. Ample moisture is forecast per NAM/GFS Model Guidance to remain through Saturday but become a bit more sparse toward the Monday/Tuesday time frames. One of these days might be a bit more dry over all but with time a regime of isolated , early morning coastal showers propagating inland during the day  with dry afternoons east coast will resume in fashion of the season - vague, yet Vogue .

TODAY: With ample steering from the SW remaining even down to the lower levels one aspect to consider is if , when, and where an east coast sea breeze will be able to manifest. Weaker flow aloft permitting, a sea-breeze even remaining closer to the east coast should be able to form -- albeit even if a bit delayed-- at least as far north as Ft Pierce with more of a side shore component further north toward the tip of the Cape. Better convergence along that boundary initially could result in better upward forcing apart from regions washed out by any antecedent outflow boundaries from 'mere showers' and/or where high cloud cover might overcome low level instability as a result of cirrus already present or storm top anvil debris which should become prevalent the later in the day we go.

Better chances of perhaps a stronger storm are noted in above image and below .

This graphic depicts only as an example an AOI (Area of Interest) for later today given the SW Flow aloft and where the east coast sea breeze might be able to penetrate a bit further inland toward Lake Okeechobee region. It is not wholly exclusive of other areas that may well see a storm however.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Will take these days as they come, as so far as today appears at least somewhat representative of what these days will be like, apart from subtle variations as steering begins to weaken and east coast sea breeze thus can make better inland progression. 

Otherwise, moisture for all general purposes remains. One aspect for all days is that temperatures aloft will not be all that cold so any pulse stronger storm is going to have to wait for peak to post heating  hours coupled with low level convergence as a a result of two or more boundary intersections.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY; Activity for the most part will begin to focus more inland with a decrease of coverage most notable especially on Sunday as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis begins to take over and steering points more toward the interior and west side of the state.

BELOW: Some images from radar and satellite of the progressive manifestation of said named Storm Julia from it's more formidable points of contention, namely in the No Name period when storm force winds had already been and were being reporte. It might be noted that Tropical Storm category winds were observed , both sustained and in gusts, prior to the Official Designation by Ship Reports for at least 3 hours as the No Name crept northward. All the better for naught , however. No need for a tizzy.

Soon to be Julia moves ashore near Vero Beach at 3AM.

Near Melbourne , FL 

  Soon to be Julia Centered near The Fish Camp in West Cocoa

 At this point in time of radar image winds had already gusted in parts of Brevard near the beaches and per observation towers in North Brevard to near Tropical Storm strength (in gusts) Not long after Sustained TS winds were reported offshore Daytona with gusts of the same in parts of North Volusia toward Ormond Beach areas in and near heavier rain activities

At this time I believe we had Julia at hand though not officially designated as such.

Increasing Rain Chances (Statewide) Tuesday through End of Next Week

TODAY: A bit more moisture today than yesterday but little over all change in the scheme of things. With onset of east coast sea breeze rain showers with possible thunder should shift inland and toward the west half of state with subsidence (sinking air) behind the east coast sea breeze producing generally a stabilizing effect for the immediate beaches. If ample moisture remains behind the boundary  might see some showers begin to show over the near shore waters toward dusk.

MONDAY: Little change from today though moisture might decrease a bit there is no good agreement between NAM/GFS and the difference only increases in the subsequent 24 hours. Will ride with GFS and say, 'little change from the prevalent pattern' ever since last weekend after Hermine exited the scene.

TUESDAY: Area of Investigation (aka - area of interest) near the south east Bahamas will be lifting west and north today through Monday to approach the Florida east coast. None of the guidance shows a close surface low but rather that increased moisture with depth concentrated in the lower to mid levels (at least as shown) and perhaps a brief mid-level circulation should produce a 'sensible of note' change in the scheme of things in regard to increasing shower festivities in the over-night to morning hours along the east coast shifting inland during the day.

The NAM model shows a vorticity lobe in mid levels moving directly in on East Central Florida overnight Monday while the GFS is much slower and further south toward the West Palm Beach  - Vero Zone Tuesday 8AM. The GFS is now in fact in line with a PREVIOUS NAM run (as of the last output) indicated a 'good chance of rain along the east coast' almost all day Tuesday with rainfall totals greater that 1" in some areas to in excess of 2" in others  ................

.................going into 1 AM Wednesday morning. Overall the inverted trough is shown by the GFS as well to shift west with moisture trailing behind it. That should shift the 'worst or best rain chances depending on how one looks at it' out of the area after Tuesday into mid-day Wednesday leaving more of a 'summer like' pattern favoring interior areas in the afternoons.

Either way you slice it though moisture necessary for showers and some thunder looks like a reality in direct association with this 'area' either late Monday or sometime into mid-day Tuesday.

Both models in varying degrees infer the potential for an inverted trough to extend from near the surface up through 10,000 feet from roughly off the NW Tip of the Yucatan to run northeast toward Central Florida to eventually Northeast Florida to act as a focus of convergence. 

The NAM also shows a better low level convergence boundary to form underneath that boundary initially as an inverted coastal trough which than assimilates itself into the mid-level trough. Most important! 

If this is to be the case, rain chances are increased as well as rainfall totals, especially over eastern portions of Central Florida southward toward Miami. Time will tell but for now running with the less pessimistic side of the GFS more generalized evolution of things. The NAM has a history of over emphasizing minute features , especially beyond 24 hours though at random times does quite well. For now, don't think this is going to be one those times.

BEYOND: As noted above, the moisture associated with the Invest moves in mainly on Tuesday and remains through at least Thursday. The GFS onward shows additional moisture from the east to move in keeping the air mass moist most of the time with periodic 'dryings' but they are short lived. 

Thus, any time that rain chances INCREASE or DECREASE are impossible to specify at this point. The GFS does indicate that any increase or decrease could occur within a 12-24 time frame. Thus, just because one day starts out dry does not mean it will end that way or vice-versa. 

Strong Storms Possible East Side north of Vero Later Today

Anti-crepuscular Rays Late August 2015  Afternoon Facing East

TODAY: With all eyes on Tropical Storm Hermine to be potential minimal hurricane focus would obviously be on that system. The post   will not address those concerns as they are self evident and can be investigated at leisure.

Locally for North Central to South Central Florida there remains a chance that localized affects including an east coast sea breeze combined with a rather moist and unstable atmosphere accompanied perhaps by an upper vorticity lobe spiraling out in the mid levels from  Hermine's environment could contribute to some fast moving and small but rather potent storm activity, though isolated, along mainly the east side of the state.

Chance of heavy but brief downpours so rainfall totals not expected to be as significant as yesterday's (at least not at this point) but could see some severe thunderstorm warnings, if not even a tornado warning (mainly from near the Cape and north later today.

The other region more directly related to the Tropical System is from Tampa and North up toward Tallahassee and east to Jax into tonight but mostly closer toward I-10 into the overnight and early Friday.

FRIDAY: As anticipated, a band of trailing moisture will drag it's tail behind Hermine into Sunday before breaking up . Friday does not appear at time to be a very active day so will leave well enough alone and see what's on the plate tomorrow morning in that regard. Guidance is remaining low key on rain chances however up to this point.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Chance of isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms and showers early afternoon into early evening almost anywhere Central Florida with activity to move off the east coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: These days look like low rain chance days as all things return to normal.

BEYOND: Another one if not two more 'systems' yet to be per se could affect either directly or indirectly the state up through mid-September. What was shown by the GFS and ECMWF models as a 'hurricane to be' is now being shown as but a mere tropical wave to pass south of Florida. Time will tell, but it does appear that at least some tropical wave like activity with increasing chances of oceanic like showers in the earlier parts of the day as moisture increases again (after a drying out earlier in the week) could start up again later in the week, typical of very late summer into early fall weather. Said morning type activities along the east coast could begin again come Wednesday and/or Thursday mornings and continue for several days from there on out...including afternoon showers/storms inland to the west coast.