Likelihood of a "Severe Spring Sting on Sunday" Increasing

TODAY: Cool spell on it's way out already as next storm system is just beginning to take shape over the Inter-Mountain Region with Severe weather risks increasing toward parts of Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas (especially), with a broader swath of 'severe potential' as well approaching many regions nearer the Mississippi River Valley basin up toward the lower Ohio Valley.

Closer to home, a small surge of moisture off the east coast might bring ashore some showers to the east coast come later in the afternoon into the early evening. They are evident on the Melbourne, FL radar as will be seen in the next image below.

FRIDAY: Continued warming trend with wind becoming more southeasterly, temperatures running near seasonal norms. At time, showers not expected.

SATURDAY: Storm system that will have impacted many areas in  eastern portions of the Southern Plains into areas of Dixie and up into parts of the Ohio Valley will continue to press east as a squall line, with the upper level parent trough continuing to deepen southward. 

There is a lot of wind energy with this system, so expect to be hearing all about it on the news channels as part of their broadcasts in days to come.

Locally, increasing low level instability over South Florida and up the east coast south of I4 with ample moisture and a late afternoon merger of the west coast sea breeze toward the east coast might be enough to manifest showers, and who knows, 'maybe' some thunder in a few areas mainly south of I-4 late in the day or early evening impacting potentially even the immediate east coast. On the other hand, we might see but nary a shower. Will have to wait another day or two for better confirmation on that potential.

Meanwhile, there is a likelihood that some form of a severe watch for the panhandle will come into the picture late Saturday into Saturday evening/early Sunday. Weather it be a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch, cannot say.

SEVERE SUNDAY: Likelihood of 'Severe Sunday Weather Activity' as of 8AM model guidance continues to be showing up . The pattern has been 'quite consistence', or the indication thereof for as much as  two days straight over 7 model runs so looks like there's no turning back now.

As of late overnight and early today, the likelihood for a slight risk of severe has brought the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) to warrant the first bell alert for Sunday.

 In looking at two separate models here at Blogger Home Central it does appear likely that almost all of the state will be in a slight risk with a least a severe thunderstorm watch in place (at least) for the state at varying times as the associated frontal boundary and potentially a pre-frontal boundary begins to emerge. 

The chance of a pre-frontal boundary manifesting would be most likely straight down the peninsula late Sunday morning into the mid-afternoon.   This is an important 'additional aspect' to monitor because if this does occur, it would add a 'sting' to the already potentially severe weather situation at hand.

Secondly, a secondary jet max at 35,000 feet could emerge around the base of the main upper level trough resulting in greater divergence  aloft across North Central to South Central Florida after 2pm and especially after 4:30PM after peak heating. That factor increases lift in the atmosphere and would increase shear as well.

 That, coupled with cold air aloft  and if the pre-frontal trough appears at the lower level, increased directional shear 'might' warrant a tornado watch as well. 

Previously the main threat appeared to be predominantly wind and small hail, so these trends ought be monitored.

Chances are that TV news stations will begin to sound the 'alert' during the evening news and subsequent broadcasts as Sunday approaches.

Will have to wait out and see what the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which is located in Norman, Oklahoma does with their upcoming forecast as the  experts monitor model trends, of which they have many more than the commoner, such as this blog.

BEYOND: Breezy follow the frontal passage and rapid clearing into Monday. Cooler but not 'too cool' on Monday with highs still in the 70Fs.

Tuesday looks to be the coolest all around day with lows possibly into the lower - mid 50Fs interior portions of the state and mid-upper 50Fs along the east coast south of I-4. And still a bit breezy. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, cooler than it has been in quite a while. 

 Afternoon highs however in the mid 70Fs as wind begins to decrease.


WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Rapid return to normal temperatures after another cool start to the day Wednesday but with very light wind. The remainder of the week appears uneventful.


NEXT SUNDAY: Would not be unusual for another 'like' system to this Sunday to approach the state about a week later since these frontal systems usually come in 'families'. And no surprise that there is another front with some kind of  storm activity with it , at least in these early prelude stages, showing up. 

At time, 'severe' does not appear to be in the cards, though 'strong' storms does look at least to be a potential mainly North- Central Florida . Too far out to say though, with any certainty at this time . If planning outdoor activity next Sunday afternoon, well, it might rain.  And who knows -- maybe more than that.

Showers-Thunder Today / 'Strong Storms' Tuesday?

The APRIL FOOL'S DAY 'Tornado' - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool front that had passed south into far South Central Florida Sunday has lifted back north as 'warm front' across Central around sunrise and is now up across North Florida lifting toward the Florida/Georgia border. As a result, the cool northeast wind of yesterday has become a warm south to south southwest wind by late morning, Monday.

Latest short term guidance shows ample low level instability for thunderstorms today however moisture is rather limited  across parts of South/South Central, such as one gets further south toward Okeechobee / St Lucie Counties.  Currently a line of showers is beaded out across the state with the retreating warm front, as noticeable in this visible satellite image below.

Given current forecast trends and what is shown for instability and wind aloft, might need to watch that, despite 15kts of a west wind at 2000-3000 ft above ground level (AGL), if a sea breeze won't be able to develop along the east coast south of the Cape to South Florida. That would act as a low level convergence mechanism which might truly be needed for additional lift in the absence of any other kind of boundary today that could produce ' lightning '.

Though some guidance shows showers developing across East Central Florida by mid-afternoon, it is always possible, the better chance of thunder would be "IF" a sea breeze can  indeed from, which would help result in low level lift. 

Otherwise, mainly showers would be the call of the day. 

A second area to watch would if the sea breeze can form and combine with the Lake Okeechobee shadow which could result in a good storm or two somewhere around St. Lucie or Martin County.

TUESDAY: This day is the more 'interesting' day of the two. 

Colder air  and stronger wind aloft will be present . Instability might be able to be ample enough mainly south of a line running from New Smyrna Beach to Brooksville. The region just south of there to a line north of a line running from near Vero Beach on the east coast to Sarasota on the west coast might be the best region to watch for 'possibly' stronger storms tomorrow though at this time there has been no 'Official Declarations'' from the 'powers that be' at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to state as such.

Either way, rain chances look to be a little bit better bet tomorrow though even so, not every one will see rain tomorrow, or even today. We could use the rain   given the dry season we are in with the wet season still nearly 2 months away.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Very progressive pattern across the nation's mid country with quick over turning of air masses from warm to cold and back again. The big headline weatherwise might end up being snow in Eastern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin region (the northern plains). ..with near blizzard conditions (?). Though that chance is still uncertain.

 Florida will be beguilingly quiet with seasonal temperatures.

SUNDAY: ....HOWEVER - the recent trends are for a very deep and potent full latitudinal trough from Southern Canada well into the GULF might be making the dig toward the east coast toward the Second half of next weekend. The time frame currently being watched for is Sunday for a QLCS type squall line to move across the state during the day...with the threat of strong wind gusts.

This is still way out in the future however, and at this point is nothing other than an assumption based in but a few hints of information. Thus, easily subject to change/re-interpretation.

NEXT WEEK: The other fly in the ointment even out further is in the temperature forecast. If the trend continues, we can expect to need to break out the jackets and sweater for a few days next week with lows in the 50FS and breezy conditions by next Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool yes, but only briefly.