Risk of "Thunder East Central" - Much Cooler Wednesday

Little change from previous post. A cold front is entering North Central Florida to cross Central Direct toward sunset. Best convergence for storm formation in the midst of instability and bulk shear/cold air aloft st nearly right on the boundary alone. 

With the boundary across Central late today best risk of showers and thunder should be near/south of I4 and more specifically give or take 30 -40 miles either side of the 528 from Orlando to Canaveral.

Most activity will be in the form of 'showers' thought thunder is possible.

TUESDAY: Front will have slid to South Florida but the colder air is still waiting on the wings

further north. There are hints that Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and much cooler than recent days.

WEDNESDAY; The 'True Front" will cross rapidly south of Central near midnight Tuesday night with some gustier NW winds and significantly drier air to follow. 

From this point on the forecast holds fast to the previous post. 

Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs many areas, coldest north of I-4.

 Lows closest to the 50F mark from the Cape south along the east coast, though upper 40Fs might well be realized north of  Melbourne at the beaches, especially north of the Cape. 60F might not be realized north of I4.

THURSDAY: Wind dies down but continued cool with highs in the mid 60Fs

FRIDAY-SATURDAY  Friday starts out cool but a quick warm up after sunrise will ensure a 'back to normal' day as wind becomes easterly and progressively more southerly into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY  Very pleasantly warm day

SUNDAY  Warm with southerly wind,chance of showers and thunder many areas ahead of a next front.

What will happen with this next front? Hard to say, latest guidance backed off a bit for another big 'cool blast' come Tuesday and Wednesday of next week but rather shows a much more settle change in wind direction and rapid rebound to normal, other than a day or two close to 'normal', though yes a cold front, just not nearly as impactful.

"March Gladness" (Through Monday)

"Sunrise, Cape Canaveral March 2 , 2019"

TODAY: Yet another warm day onto a string of other unusually warm days for this time of year continues.  

Latest infrared satellite animations reveal.s mostly high / mid level cloud cover from time to time across Central and North Florida with the south half of the state mainly cloud free.  

Given the trend in the animations, it appears that this will continue to be the case today, other than some lower cumuliform type clouds forming all locations later in the day, or in other words, similar to yesterday will be the case. 

Temperatures will run along the same lines as yesterday as well, though it might be a bit warmer along the beaches as it appears that with an approaching cold front the surface to lower levels pressure gradient might become strong enough to offset the sea breeze at least north of Fort Pierce. If so, expect highs in the mid-upper 80Fs today, only being tempered by off and on higher clouds, especially north half of state. 

TONIGHT: Continued warm and 'muggy' for this time of year with dew-points even up to the 70F mark in some locations.

MONDAY: Warm trend continues south of I-4 as a cold front drops south down the state. Cloud cover along and north of I-4 should hold temperatures down a bit, and further north by I-10 the colder air will have more certainly have begun to filter in. 

Given the heating and instability with cold air aloft, there is a small chance of 'thunder' but more likely rain showers mainly over Central Direct and parts of South Central (mainly north of Vero Beach) from near noon time through to sunset as the front drops south. Thus, it won't be 'quite as warm' due to potential cloud cover and showers that might form. Not all locations will by any means experience rainfall, however.

TUESDAY: The NAM implies 'no fropa' (frontal passage, yet)  oddly, but the GFS says yes it does go through, but the outcome is more or less the same temperature wise either way. Afternoon highs Central mainly near normal to just below  with highs in the lower 70Fs (more or less) with a NW wind, as the true colder and much drier air is still on the way. 

Guidance is consistent with a secondary area of low pressure forming over the Gulf Stream east of South Carolina with an attendant secondary boundary from it across Florida, which will be transparent to Floridians.  As that low lifts out east and north the boundary drops through Central late day Tuesday and in comes the drier air on stiff NW winds.

WEDNESDAY.:; This will be the coolest morning we've seen in a while, with lows most locations north of Lake Okeechobee in the mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50FS near the east coast from near Vero and South, with the colder locations being the interior from I-4 and north. Windy as well, with gusts in the 22- 28 mph range. 

Wednesday, in short, will be akin to a more typically 'cold' winter type day in Florida, just not a more 'extreme' type of winter day. 

Highs will struggle to reach 60F north of a Melbourne to Tampa Bay line, and it is unlikely that they will at all north of I-4. (though, it might be interesting to see if the GFS is underestimating the strength of the sun's heating given the time of year. Chances are with good mixing with clear skies the wind might be a bit stronger but I am curious as to just how 'less cool' it might be , but that's a big 'if').

Below are forecast images for THIS MORNING compared to WEDNESDAY morning

THURSDAY: Another cool start to the day, but with much less wind. High pressure that originated in Western Montana will have dropped southeast toward Northern Georgia and will be on it's way east. As a result, eventually the clockwise circulation around that high will in turn result in a developing light N to northeast and eventually ENE wind during the day. Continued cool but not AS cool as Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60Fs.

FRIDAY: This morning might well start out 'cool' again with lows in the 50Fs but after sunrise expect   onshore flow off the Atlantic will quickly establish an 'air mass modification' regime with highs in the 70Fs. 

 In short, Friday looks like a 'climatically normal' day for this time of year.

NEXT WEEKEND: Warm once again as southerly flow develops  late Friday into Saturday morning. Highs in the upper 70Fs (coast) to lower 80Fs.

By Sunday, continued moist southerly flow might result in showers or even thunder across parts of Central/South Florida toward the east coast during the afternoon. That is a 'new development' to watch for next weekend.

DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS MARCH 10, Sunday at 2AM.  
The first full day of Day Light Savings Time will be warm across Florida.

BEYOND: Another cold front and more cold weather appears to be looming for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame of NEXT week as well.