The "T" Word Made Public - Low End Threat

Got an early start (6:45am) to today's post. Confidence level in the short term (today into tonight) is fairly high with lingering "Ida System" effects remaining problematic through most of Thursday. Although on The Weather Channel as I write, they are saying the system is moving NW (?), Ida is clearly moving ENE per running a satellite loop from this meager home based computer (see, being high-tech isn't always all it's made up to be). You can see the satellite image I've posted with the "L" on it indicating the center of circulation. That was about an hour ago, but just before starting the post the center is now straddling the coast (uh hum.."landfall" so to speak). There is no weather other than wind and clouds with this feature as all the wet stuff has moved well inland. You can see a band of showers/storms out ahead of it though extending well into the Gulf via the radar picture. This is the front that is developing as the storm is probably already extra-tropical. The hurricane center is deliberately not alluding much to this (its extra-tropical nature), because they don't want to mislead folks living along the Gulf Coast into thinking that its threat is any less (threat?!). This storm is what the media has been hungry for all hurricane season...but about all they're getting is hors dourves.

For today, cloud cover looks to be a given; AND, the 60% chance of rain that The Weather Channel is mentioning seems to me at this time to be TOTALLY out of the ballpark. Today will again be windy ...but not as much as yesterday. The wind direction will become more Southeasterly with time and eventually due south around sunset. But a 60% chance of rain and/or thunderstorms today? Not going to happen. At least not from Central Brevard and points south. In all fairness, areas within our National Weather Service..service area..which includes areas near Daytona and Lake County will see this 60% before days end. It'll be a close one for us...but don't think it will come to fruition until over night.

You can also see from the graphic out of the Storm Prediction Center that they are indeed mentioning the "T" word (tornado) for the potential from Tampa along the Florida west coast up to the Big Bend. I alluded to this area having the greatest potential two days ago...and surprisingly the potential has indeed developed and being made public info. It was also mentioned that any such "t" event would be low end, as indeed instability is severely lacking and not in sync with the helicity values also shown above. As you can see, the area of greatest helicity coincides nicely with the tornado threat area..but all of the instability is well off to the east of that area. If they were stacked together we'd be talking a much different story. In fact, we can take these words straight for the National Weather Services mouth:

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE (FORMERLY IDA) APPROACHES. EXPECT LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT VERY LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADO NORTH OF ORLANDO BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE GULF COAST.

So there we have it. The biggest impact from the combination of the front and the low seems to be that it will occur in east central Florida beyond this aforementioned time period, that being during the pre-sunrise hours of Wednesday until mid-afternoon. This will come in the form of extensive cloud coverage and scattered to numerous rain showers. I'm not going to go so far as to mention the "thunder" word either, but that is with somewhat low confidence especially as we work toward sunrise Wednesday. Seems ironic that, my being the severe weather fiend , I'm downplaying all of this...but regardless, we have to face reality. Additionally, the winds will decrease substantially and shift to southwest to nearly westerly direction for all day Wednesday. Essentially, tomorrow still looks like a washout, but not absolutely, totally, and completely...but I wouldn't be looking for the sun to show its face much for sure.

So what about after tomorrow afternoon? Glad you asked because there are some complexities that come in to play. There actually is yet another low pressure system over the Atlantic that is moving west toward the Bahamas and will continue to do so throughout today. "Remnant Ida" will get sheared and torn apart as today goes on..its debris being scattered through the SE U.S. in the form of downright rain over Georgia, Alabama, and eventually South Carolina..while the clouds will cover Florida. These two systems will merge off the coast somewhere between east of Daytona to Jacksonville about 100 miles offshore later Wednesday into Thursday. Just how fast this merger will move out..and its residual "backwash" affects impact us locally is the problem. It could remain cloudy and breezy on Thursday (winds by then out of the NNW) with a cool hint to the temperature...and some models are hinting that the sole recipient of any potential rain from this backwash will be, of all places, East Central Brevard County! How's that for picking a needle out of a haystack? (compliments of the NAM and GFS models). My gut is telling me that this precipitation field will actually only exist off shore, so we 'should' be in the clear of the rain...but be advised that the potential does exist for lingering rain showers Thursday...perhaps even into Friday.

The weekend at this point appears to be essentially rain free...but as winds start to swing around once again to a northeasterly component the coast could again see some spritzes of rain as it will be moisture laden from these aforementioned low pressure systems. This is at the worst end of the spectrum though and will be monitored as all of these "yet to be" events develop. On the other end of the spectrum we could have a gorgeous weekend..particularly after noon Saturday if not beginning Friday.

So for today, expect more wind (just not quite as strong) from the southeast to SSE.. cloudy..maybe a spritz of rain off and on but nothing enough to actually collect in the old rain bucket until after sunset (unless you go further north toward Daytona to Jacksonville and points inland from there). Tomorrow morning we could be waking up to an entirely different day in more ways than one.

Pick a Track - Any Track

You can see any of the 29 (yes 29!) possible forecast tracks of Ida above. As of this writing the storm has been downgraded to a tropical storm, and so it shall be for the rest of its life, if even. The storm will likely become extra-tropical by later this evening if not sooner.

I liked this description so well I decided to copy/paste this : "THE STORM WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THIS PROCESS APPEARS NOW THAT IT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO OCCUR AND IDA MAY APPROACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS"

Now, that was written last night, but still appears to be most like what is now occurring.

So far this morning, not one recent model is depicting the precipitation field that is now occurring right along the Gulf shores of Florida (also shown above). The reality is that there is more rain there than what the models forecast, even as recently as morning model runs. The closest model was the NAM and what I'm heavily leaning toward at this time.

In the short term (today), expect more of the same yet even breezier to flat out windy, especially along the immediate coast. The chances of rain will again be low as hard as it is to believe. Yet even as I type a spritz just came down...that given there's always a chance of more of the same today, but anything to collect in the bucket is very unlikely until...(read on_.

It's worth noting that we did have a one minute shower in Canaveral last night around 8pm, and accompanying that shower were very hearty wind gusts. Strong enough to blow lawn furniture into the pool! Those rain showers transport the winds that are just over our heads down to the surface and what you get is pretty darned good wind gusts as a result. Overall, though..the chance of rain today is minimal again, but that changes as we head toward the midnight hours. I expect to see more clouds today overall though with the overall coverage being the partly cloudy to broken sky type and not yet totally overcast.

Tomorrow , especially late in the day is where things become more complex as ever! By late in the day the wind may start to die down and shift to a much more southerly direction, but in hand with that the chance of rain begins to increase markedly. In fact, as things look now Wednesday may be an near washout (on the worst end of the spectrum).

I feel a tad bad for the broadcasters (like The Weather Channel) who sent a crew to the panhandle to cover the impending doom and destruction because they ain't gonna see it. Also, some storm chasing friends were seriously considering deployment to the Panhandle to catch video footage and sample the storm, but it looks like that would be mostly a washout. Perhaps they've since changed their minds.

Now, if one solely relies on the NAM model as I alluded to, Ida will not even make a landfall!How's that for a fly-in-the-ointment?!. Instead, the storm merges with a yet to be seen (developing) frontal boundary , with the center of circulation actually drifting back to the south as the front approaches peninsular Florida. I'm going to go back a moment to reflect on what I suppositioned several days ago now, that being the potential for low-end tornadoes. It's not out of the question that there could be a few, mainly around the big bend later today, with a transition to an area as far south as Tampa on the west coast by early Wednesday. It seems that a sort of pseudo warm front will precede the 'cool front', accompanied by a wind shift to the Southwest (FINALLY). It's along this warm front that the chance of those nasty little rotating storms will be manifested on Wednesday so just keep your ears perked a tad in the future just in case the possibility becomes public.

Further down the road into Thursday also becomes problematic. Namely, just how soon will Ida be out of the picture all together? There is talk on The Weather Channel of the system moving up the U.S. east coast and being a big weather maker for the mid-Atlantic region (per the GFS model mostly), but I'm not yet sold on this idea. Strong high pressure still bridges the gap between here and there, and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. Ida could well linger in the Gulf..and even drift SSW away from us...or completely washout over the state as a big slosh of moisture laden gunk..making Thursday yet another washout.

Isn't weather fun?! Full of ifs, ands, AND buts. Not so cut and dry as it may seem when hearing about it through the media. In closure, as has been the case, don't be sold entirely on anything you hear. These storms don't know math and definitely don't know the physics equations that go into computing their future paths...in fact, they don't 'know' anything nor seemingly have a vendetta against us. They just are and will be.

It's either hurry up and wait...or catch up before it's too late.

The $100,000 Question - Hurricane Watch in Place

I've been dreading making this post for over an hour simply because of Hurricane Ida and its forecast (that is the $100K question). For the sake of brevity, today's post will focus more on East Central Florida with Ida musings to follow further down in the post (since it is not of immediate high priority for this area...if ever!). As mentioned yesterday, all forecasts seem to be purely speculative, some based on science fiction and others nonfiction. More to follow.

For today, more oh more of the same...just breezier. Strong high pressure remains stretched across the Deep South and into eastern Texas. Broad low pressure across the W. Caribbean with the focus on Ida near the Yucatan Gap. It is the pressure gradient between these two systems that's creating the wind, as has been the case for seemingly days on end. There is light at the end of the tunnel though, if for ever only a brief time.

But "will it rain today(?)" is always something one wants to know. The answer to that is low end unlikely to flat out no. Accessible moisture in the atmosphere only extends up about 6 thousand feet, and from there on out it's dry dry dry. There's just enough moisture in a very shallow layer aloft to generate flat topped, low level stratocumulus clouds...which come and go in patches as they please with no set pattern or logic.

Does this sound like yesterday? You bet. And so it will be...but today will be breezier. Unbeknownst to us in Central Florida, it's actually MUCH windier in extreme southeast Florida than here, by a good 10mph steady state winds and in gusts to boot. So we're getting off good by comparison. That's the deal for the day, windy and patchy clouds well into tonight.

Will this change soon? Not too soon, but by late Monday night going into Tuesday our chance of showers will start to show its face. A cold front is forecast to make its way into the state late Tuesday and Wednesday. It's at this time that what is left of Ida will merge with the front, and like a tidal wave wash down the state and be gone by Thursday morning..with yet more high pressure bridging across and re-establishing the pesky onshore flow. Temperatures will be affected little by the front, with only a slight cool down. To wrap it up..breezy conditions continuing..best chance of rain Monday night through Wednesday with shifting winds...then back to status quo Thursday. Of course, more elaboration will be required as we go into the early portions of this coming week.

Now Ida. First off, just for a graphical depiction of what I'm about to write, note the graphics provided at the top of this post. See how one forecast track actually takes the storm from Tampa to Cape Canaveral?! Just to clarify my point which is made below. Also, the latest Hurricane Forecast track just came out as I started today's post...interesting and not entirely out of the question by ANY means!

Sigh sigh sigh..between The Weather Channel, The Hurricane Center, a plethora of MANY forecast models, and Facebook friends I'm being inundated with more information than you'd like to know (or perhaps even care about). Suffice it say though, the possibilities are being narrowed down and somethings are becoming inevitable. The stats aren't out yet as to why the Hurricane Watch was issued for the Gulf Coast, but my guess is that it was because of high seas/tidal impacts. The places to watch especially will be where the southern tip of Louisiana has eastward facing shores to the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola as not only swells generated by the storm itself find their way to the coast..but pressure gradient winds (and eventually wind from the storm itself) have the greatest impact.

So what's all the hoopla about?

1) "Will Ida become a Cat 2 Hurricane?". I think likely for a brief time later today into tonight.

2) "How big is Ida, really?" TINY. The hurricane force winds only extend out about 15 miles from the center

3) "When will Ida make landfall, if it does?" That's the $100K question. Another one is, if it makes landfall will it still be a hurricane? I don't think it will be. It will be extratropical, but it doesn't really matter if it is or isn't because the impacts will be the same regardless. But when (?), that's a major source of discussion. Some models are a good 24-36 hours faster than the official forecast from the Hurricane Center..and many other forecasters agree with these models for a variety of legitimate reasons. But despite the timing of the system, the affects here will be about the same...and timing of those local affects remains the same as well.

4) "When will be hearing the last of Ida ...I'm sick of hearing about it(?)". By late Wednesday, we will not be hearing about Ida anymore...UNLESS..as one model suggests..the low continues up the U.S. East Coast the whole way to New Jersey!...Groan. If that indeed occurs, the "Ida" word will still be used ad naseum until there's nothing left of it but a patch of clouds!

5) "So why aren't you providing in depth analysis about the storm?" Because there's so much out there already...my input is only adding fuel to the fire of what I've already established as the great unknown. That IS my input...facts and not hypothetical, model based fiction. Additionally, and as such, the point of this blog is that anyone can read and understand what is going on...not just those strongly 'weatherwise' (meteorlogically inclined and educated).

If you turn to The Weather Channel or any news station today, expect to hear about this storm. How's that for a forecast? Forecasting the forecast broadcasts. In the meantime, hold on to your hats and prepare for a decent chance of some rain by later Tuesday - Wednesday. More to come.

Breezy But Nice - "Un-Ideal Ida" In The Future

A classic East Central Florida fall day is in store today, characterized by breezy to sometimes gusty ENE winds and coolish afternoon temperatures. Another great day for laundry with no rain in this outlook any time soon. The strong and persistent onshore flow will continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as high pressure remains locked over the entire SE U.S. and broad low pressure remains over the Western Caribbean. The pressure gradient between these two areas will generate the easterly winds. Atmospheric moisture in the scheme of things is pretty meager, but enough lingers in the lowest levels to generate those stratocumulus clouds. Hard to believe that once you go about 10,000 ft up the wind is from the exact opposite direction at over 70mph...but that's indeed what we have. Today is pretty much a no-brainer, so I won't elaborate much. If you liked yesterday, you'll like today even more, as it seems there will be even less clouds. We may see the typical diurnal increase in clouds during the hours around sunset...and there could be periods of increased clouds throughout the day at just about any time, however it appears at this time that those periods will be few and far between, with the predominant condition to being widely scattered cloud conditions with sunshine the rule more than the exception. The high temperature today will struggle to reach 80 degrees (yesterday was about 81 in Canaveral for comparison's sake). In a nutshell, no appreciable change. And tomorrow will be pretty much the same...and Monday as well. But we still have 48 hours to see more precisely how Monday will pan out.

Now for Ida. This is what I love about having a blog. One can spout all their musings, knowing the thoughts will only be dispersed to a selected few (namely those who actually read it :-)!. The truth of the matter is that no one knows just exactly what the now Tropical Storm (again)...will do. Granted, we do hear the status/updated forecasts from the Hurricane Center and the media (who bases their info on the Hurricane Center), but they are in a position where the must state something affirmative without all the 'question marks' included. So what REALLY is the scoop?

As you can see by the graphic at the top...we see that the dynamical forecasts tracks don't really vary all that much...and the Hurricane Center has taken a nice average of all of them and laid it out among the masses. A lot depends on just how fast Ida makes a forward surge (if indeed it does at all). The slower the forward motion, the less likely it is to make it as far north as forecast. There are major timing issues involved between an upper level trough forecast to move across the central U.S. and Ida's forward motion and when or if they will meet up. Honestly, it's anyone's guess.

For east central Florida, at this point it doesn't matter much what the storm does. At this point it seems the worst we would see is increased clouds, continued gusty winds (from pressure gradients and not the storm itself)...and at worst some decent rain come late Tuesday-Thursday.

Ida may, in fact, become a Cat 1 hurricane by this time Sunday which is fun from a meteorological perspective. The stronger the storm gets and the faster it can make a move forward the closer to the U.S. Coast Ida will threaten. It would only behoove my credibility to make a definitive forecast on Ida's final outcome, because frankly and honestly to do so with high confidence is essentially impossible. So now you've heard it from the horses mouth, and perhaps what others in a more "public" position are not able to say. Instead, they must state their claim, and then end up with mud in their face (more than likely). Am I coping out? I don't think so...just being honest. At this point, it's sort of like a "what came first, the chicken or the egg" situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm aware of many various meteorlogical situations that could evolve due to currently existing or developing atmospheric parameters...but just which ones will develop more than others and time themselves accordingly in comparison with other ones...is what leaves the "So what will Ida do?" question up in the air.

The storm does bear watching though...just my little gem of wisdom to send on to whoever reads this; take it all with a grain of salt. Things will become more definitive as to what Ida will do come later Sunday into Monday. Maybe then I'd be more willing to lay the cards out.

A "Fresh As All Outdoors" Day in Store

Good day for laundry! For that nice fresh, all outdoors scent. All photos above were taken around my apartment complex near the pool.

Temperatures along the immediate coast last night never fell below 72 degrees (at least not in Canaveral). But don't tell the folks "over the rivers and through the woods". Melbourne at one point was in the upper 50s if you can believe it. Pretty much take a look outside, and what you see is what you got for today. The strong high pressure centers are locked in for a few more days over the southeast quadrant of the U.S. and pulling around the northern periphery is a dry, continental air mass. It doesn't look like we'll see all the high cirrus clouds we saw yesterday, but at this point lower stratocumulus clouds could be an issue until at least noon time if not longer. They moved in sometime after midnight and have been holding fast ever since ( satellite imagery shows them extending out..well..a VERY long way). With a little mid-level support by late morning, the onshore winds might pick up a notch, so if you're driving over the causeway bridges hold fast to the steering wheel.

So when's the next chance we'll see that wet stuff falling from the sky? Hmmm..could be a while. The first real chance would be if whatever is depression Ida ever gets close enough to cause harm (not bodily)...but that is yet to be foreseen. It is of my opinion (and I stress ONLY)...that we will see very little of this storm. But note that the official long range track from the Hurricane Center does bring the storm into the central Gulf of Mexico (GOM), but I think that even with that track we won't see much. The very ultimate worst could be, as mentioned yesterday, low end tornadoes or mini-supercells...but that is a BIG stretch (and alas, but a dream at this point). More likely would be cloudy, very windy (due more from pressure gradients rather than the actual storm itself), and showery conditions.

Be it as it may, the storm is fun to watch and track at one's leisure for the time being until it emerges well off Hondorus and does something definitive.

Nice Fall Day In Full Swing As Eyes Watch Ida

Nothing wrong with today as far as I can tell. Confidence level is high that rain is out of the picture today, not even a spit. The old frontal boundary that initially plagued the area for a few days had shoved well south of the immediate Central Florida area yesterday into the Florida Straits..and is now washing out entirely. In its place high pressure is arcing across the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys and into the southeast U.S. As the high continues to build across this region the next couple of days this will place us in a N-NE, dry flow. However, the pressure gradient between the high and low pressure well to the south will create somewhat breezy winds, increasing by mid-afternoon and especially along the immediate coastal communities.

I've included above a picture of the sky yesterday as the sun was setting. It was filled with contrails and looked pretty cool. I wonder what's going on around here (maybe at Patrick AFB). We had a sonic boom earlier this morning, so something must be going on around here. Also shown is the atmospheric 'sounding' (depicted in the Skew-T diagram) of the atmosphere as sampled from the Kennedy Space Center. Essentially what it's showing is westerly winds not far over our heads, while the NE winds are trapped in the lowest 8000 ft. Those westerly winds aloft will transport high level (cirrus) debris clouds overhead today, but the low level clouds should be few a far between unlike the past few days. You can see how not to far up the lines separate way apart. This indicates very dry air just over our heads. They start to come together a bit up around 30,000 ft. which would be the level of the cirrus clouds.

As for Hurricane Ida, we have plenty of time to rest on our laurels. In fact, it is highly doubtful we would have need to make preparatory actions for the storm, even if it affects us directly. That is, other than preparing for very wet and unusually breezy conditions. The worst of Ida would probably be realized in the form of an increased threat of low end tornadoes sometime mid-week next week, but that is so far out on the far end of the spectrum that it's purely wishful thinking (the storm lover in me speaking out). For now suffice it to say that any threat of conditions from Ida affecting us are extremely conditional and forecasting the future outcome of what will become of it at this point is strictly hypothetical.

Classic Fallish OnShore Flow Days In Store

Couldn't be more of a classic coastal fall day if it tried any harder. If you can picture this, we have brisk onshore winds (off the ocean) in which cool air is modified as it crosses the warmer ocean waters creating partly cloudy skies. Otherwise, little to no mid-upper level dynamics and/or surface boundaries in the air exist to generate weather havoc (rain)...this leaves the coastal counties in East Central Florida under conditions with little as far as diurnal temperature variations and cloud coverage. From a purely observational viewpoint (the days before I actually tried to analyze what was going on atmospherically speaking), such conditions can be prevalent for seemingly days on end with little day to day variation. It can go on for a week like this from an outside perspective. When one digs deeper though, you can see where things are changing aloft here and there in variations of parameters, just not enough to make things interesting down here on the surface.

High pressure moving across the Mississippi River Valley and off the extreme SE U.S. coast will persist for a number of days. One high pressure center to be followed by another, and yet another after that. This only enhances the current weather now in place over our area, and for the most part leaves benign weather over a large portion of the Eastern U.S. other than the Great Lakes region where fronts will have a little more punch dynamically speaking.

So for today, I'd expect a somewhat breezy day, and after looking a satellite imagery expect a lot of high clouds off and on. The wind will be off the ocean out of the ENE. Some early morning scrappy stratocumulus will likely be gone by the time anyone reads this, but nonetheless they are here as I type. The further south one goes down the peninsula into extreme southeast Florida the more likely one is to see a chance of rain today...that area being closer to the old frontal boundary that plagued and complicated the forecast in this area for days is now a faded memory. The biggest challenge is to figure out when significant rain chances will again enter the picture. From an outside perspective, if memory serves me correctly, such changes can seem to come on rather abruptly and sometimes unexpectedly (but again, that's from an outside perspective).

But for now, suffice it to say we are in the clear across the central peninsula lest there be a very isolated, extremely short lived spritz just about anywhere in the next couple of days. One really has to go into next week to see even anything potentially siggy...and being as far out as that is, we can leave that for another day.

We'll Wear The Blanket Today

Lots of little things going on around here this morning atmospherically speaking, but it's sort of like adding up lots of little things because when it all totals up it doesn't amount to much exciting. About a 2 on the 1-10 excitement scale. I've included a photo of the current sky, the KSC sounding, and some other superfluous 'stuff' to paint the picture. Plenty of low level moisture to work with an westerly glide above a very shallow NNE wind component (as evidenced by the surface wind analysis), over running an inverted trough which runs along the east-southeast coast just off shore, should preclude those cloudy-ish skies from making the break today. The RUC precipitation forecast looks similar to what is shown above for nearly the entire day, with only the extreme east central coast in the green. However, it seems at this time per current radar as well as the radar trends the past 8 hours, that all that green will remain off shore and manifest itself locally as low-mid level cloud coverage. The latest satellite imagery indicates that much of the central peninsula is indeed under this blanket with high clouds near the panhandle.

Temperatures today as a result of the clouds will remain quite comfortable, with I'd guess highs only in the low-mid 80s where clouds provide a longer temporary break. The further SW one goes appears to be the only area that may feel the sting of warmer air, but even there they are cooling off under this shallow NNE flow.

Today into tomorrow yields to clearing skies and cooler temperatures. High pressure is building eastward across the Deep South and we will succumb to the flow around that high. Initially, the folks in the NE U.S. will receive a cold down as the high moves east, but once they are on its backside they'll warm up pretty good. The result of the high locally will be a continued NE-ENE wind circulation (breezy at times) and dry air aloft. This high is to be followed by yet another high pressure system on its heels...thus continuing the onslaught of oh-so-yawny weather....into the weekend and early next week.

I welcome any new followers to the blog too! If the gadget is working correctly (sometimes it doesn't) you see some of my YouTube videos on the right hand column. The latest upload being on top. Two of my favs are there this morning. One of my former cat "Twister" which turned out pretty neat, and another from the Goshen County, Wyoming tornado from this past spring.

Extreme Local Forecast Day At Hand

Images above include the local RUC surface pressure forecast and various local LDIS plots indicating the frontal boundary by various gradients and parameters as shown in varying colored definitions.

Kind of a tricky forecast, at least for today. Even still, despite that fact there will be little in 'siggy' (click on the 'title" of today's entry for definition) weather for today.

The frontal boundary lies somewhere across the Central part of the peninsula this morning somewhere on the east coast between Daytona Beach and Fort Pierce. It all depends on which level in the atmosphere one opts to use as defining the front and which parameter (ie, wind, moisture, cloud cover, etc) to use. Suffice it to say we are pretty much in the center of this broad zone from Cape Canaveral on the east coast to Tampa on the West Coast. Very week, temporal cyclogensis (sort of) at the surface is forecasted by the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as shown above to occur on the east coast before noon. This won't be a true low per se...but it maybe be enough to provide return flow beneath some pooled moisture in the area...enough to induce some good low cloud coverage and perhaps a barely detectable spit of rain. The RUC is not indicating there to be any precipitation, so that's probably the route to take. I'm going to go to the deep end though and give it a low end 5 percent chance that if you happen to be in the car you might detect it on the windshield....now watch it pour (unlikely). However, in observing the latest sounding from KSC (the Kennedy Space Center), precipitable water values have increased a smidge. Enough for rain? Unlikely...but this may change even more with time.

For the most part today should be almost identical to yesterday other than the fact that I don't think the Melbourne area will be tying another record high temperature as they did yesterday, with increased cloud coverage and northerly surface winds. In fact, in looking out the window (that always helps!)..I do in fact see some low level clouds out there. Nifty.

The front's location is indeed in about the area I suppositioned in yesterday's discussion it would end up...and if all holds true..it will remain in the vicinity for another day or so. As a matter of fact, lasts nights NAM run indicates a true chance of rain going into the post sunset hours tonight and into early tomorrow. So this definitely bears watching. The NAM has hit the surface front's location on the head, as far as using the wind fields as the defining parameter, showing the most moisture pooled behind this boundary with return moist low level flow along the east coast. Expect that any activity that can form will wane to just clouds the further west one goes into the central peninsula.

So in a meteorological nutshell, the best chance of this aforementioned precipitation should be just to the north and along the boundary from Fort Pierce to Oakhill and east of I-95.

The temperature yesterday wasn't even an issue here in Canaveral, so Melbourne's high temperature came as a surprise to me. Perhaps it shouldn't have though, as the flow off the ocean was not very strong (nearly calm at times in fact)..so that area probably was not impacted by the cooling benefits of wind off the ocean waters.

Please don't tell me this is going to be a day by day issue here. I suppose depending on how accurate one wants to be (namely myself for one)...I could be updating this blog every hour, but that ain't gonna happen.

And in the the longer term, nothing siggy...but at least it's not going to get cold anytime soon. The folks further north can have it, even though it looks like it will moderate some up that way during the first half of the week. Maybe before Thanksgiving we'll have to break out the gloves and earmuffs...but even out to 10 days from now there is absolutely now indication of that possibility whatsoever.

No Tricks, No Treats, No Weather

Pictured Above: My Halloween scare which crawled across my bare feet TWICE last night. GROSS! My cat finally caught it for me. Good kitty.

Looks like we're starting off November to a slow start, and with that given the trend it appears at this time will continue through this upcoming week. on Friday morning a very ill defined backdoor "boundary" passed through from east to west and fizzled over the interior while another boundary approached from the NW (yesterday). That second boundary is currently almost directly overhead. The accompanying low pressure system is well up near the Canadian border, thus this 'extension' is nothing more than a thread of dynamics (in fact, there was a very nice rope cloud indicated on satellite imagery extending across the Panhandle and into the Gulf late yesterday).

In any case, the second front (I'll call this one, with hesitation, a front)...is probably somewhere at this time on a Daytona Beach to Sarasota line and sinking ever so slowly south as it encounters mid-upper level winds running parallel along it. The atmosphere at those levels is moisture starved (thirsty?) so I'm not looking for any form of rain to fall along it j(although we could see some mid-upper level clouds as the boundary sets camp overhead). The lower levels below 10,000 feet aren't AS dry...but the combination of absolutely nothing to stir the pot either at the surface or aloft (wind or thermally wise) and relatively dry air leaves us with once again a nice day similar to yesterday. The only difference is that given the boundary will probably sink down to the Lake Okeechobee area today...some generally drier, low level air will work into the picture. Yesterday wasn't so warm along the coast, although Orlando once again hit a record high temperature for the date. You'd never have guessed it by being right on the coast though.

I'm going to stick my leg out on a forecast for the entire week today, which I don't usually do. Perhaps it's because I started the blog in the summer during which longer term forecasts are, except for under unusual circumstances, a dangerous undertaking. But given the time of year, the agreement between the models, and consistency in the pattern it appears that despite minor perturbations in the boundary which will reside just to the south if not right over us...there will be no mentionable weather here along east central Florida or even along the west coast for that matter. I don't see any unique identifiers that should cause one coast to be much different from the other until we get some more moisture in here and the winds do something significant other than their current 'fair weather' generosities. Temperatures in all areas will be a tad cooler on Tueday afternoon and points on with the coolest of mornings to be found along the west central area of the state as far south as the Sarasota area.

Every once in a while I like to make mention that my posts are obviously of my own undertaking and opinion and often expressed very tongue in cheek (depending on my mood at this time of day). Therefore, for planning purposes, or if bless you that you take my word for it, I suggest at least getting a second opinion for your closest National Weather Service office if you have some important business to attend to or plan.

Also, if you are reading this blog for the first time why not be a 'follower' to remain abreast of the weather in these parts? Either of the buttons on the right will make a record, but facebook users get the added benefit of their mug shot included (if they have one). I really like to chat the 'the weather buzz' at most any time, so feel free to give me a write if you wish. My email address is shown on the facebook 'badge' also on the right. Thanks!

Total October Precipitation For Cape Canaveral

Here is the total precipitation for my location in Cape Canaveral as recorded to the CoCoRaHS platform. We totaled 0.99", but total up all the traces and that just might give us an inch. This update sent remotely. Have a Happy And Safe Halloween.

No Tricks or Treats For Today

Pictured above is "Lola" as a little kitten. My how things change. If you missed it she was featured one night during "Cantore and Steele"

Meteorological Halloween (a trick and treat) came yesterday to east central Florida in the form of an anomalous 'boundary' of sorts, self proclaiming to be a back door cold front. Like a fading ripple in a pond, it made it about as far west (from the east) to the center of the state, even though by that time any active weather associated with it had gone to the weather graveyard in the sky...leaving only remnant ashes (clouds). Well that boundary is gone now and the prevalent pattern of late will once again set camp over most all of peninsular Florida today. And what, pray tell, does that exactly mean?

It means back to the warmer than normal temperatures(yesterday east central Florida spent most of the day under cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures) , sparse cloud coverage, and nary even a rain shower to be found. I admit though, that yesterday's little "Treat" of 0.1" was our early Halloween Trick...but if I had relied more on the NAM it would have come to no surprise. It wasn't until it was almost too late that the RUC model fell in line with it, and by that time the writing was on the wall, or radar!

Given the NAM's track record of late for this area, and in combination with the latest RUC output and combined blend of the two equates to what supposedly should be a no-brainer for today, with no Tricks or Treats anticipated.

Today: For all of the residents here, and if you are a local follower to this writing this will apply...look for a low end partly cloud sky (2/10 coverage) with a light easterly winds and rain free conditions throughout the day. The mid-levels have dried out a smidge in the wake of yesterday's boundary passage as the low level high center gets shoved further east into the Atlantic by the approaching trough which passed infamous havoc in the Shreveport area the other day (if you watched The Weather Channel you'd think no other place on earth had any weather that day as a result of the trough). Actually, I'm writing much ado about nothing this morning but what does one do to make uneventful weather interesting?

Mid-Long Term: The aforementioned trough/front will enter the picture on Sunday, but have a very difficult time remaining fused at all levels, thus it will spread itself thin right across the center of the state with a slow to non-existant foreward motion. There will be only minimal dynamics associated with the boundary...but enough pooled moisture and meager instability could give rise to some showers in the more blessed locations...but we have yet another day to catch up on these events as things unfold during the course of today and tonight.

Hello High Speed Dirt Followers

Hi,
If you are reading this it hopefully means that you have been invited to share with me your enthusiasm and interest in weather. Either by how weather affects your life in the course of your daily routine or simply by the mere fact that you really dig severe weather such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms. You like to take video of them, photograph them, and/or share your scores with friends via YouTube or a publisher in the various realms of the media.

If you were not 'invited', well then even better! Please join and help me along in this wildly continuous adventure we call weather. Share your thoughts and if you need a specific forecast for a certain place or time...send the request my way. Of course this is not official National Weather Service (service), but I have been qualified through both the Air Force and The National Weather Service to forecast. You can just expect my little 'slant' if there needs to be.

Share this blog with your friends if you find it interesting and let's have fun. I'm still in the infantile stages of blog development, so any suggestions or hints is always appreciated.

We Are Squeezing Water Out of a Rock

(current radar depiction, forecast precip for this time, forecasted moisture at 850mb, and 700mb high center of us)

As I type today's entry it is actually 'raining' if you can call it that. The above images show the actual radar depiction, the RUC model's forecasted precipitation areas for this time, the 850mb moisture forecast, and the 700mb high pressure center placement. Based on the accuracy of the current situation of such features at this time, today's forecast is based on the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) for today's short term outlook.

...and given all of the above, it looks like we could see more of the same today in a VERY widely scattered fashion, mostly from coastal Central Brevard up toward Ocala. Don't think it will be all that warm today with likely increased cloud coverage and light onshore flow (coming in off the ocean). Sweet! Nothing exciting, but sure beats the cloudless sky and glaring sunshine we had yesterday. As you can see by the 700mb high pressure placement, we are indeed forecasted to be wearing the high pressure center (per yesterday's "Eye of the High" forecast).

So how can we be getting rain?

The surface high pressure is located well to the north along the mid-Atlantic coast. The clockwise flow around that feature is shoving Atlantic moisture in underneath the 700 mb high pressure center which is almost trapping the moisture to the surface and inducing low topped convection.

Due to the high's presence, I do not believe that showers will be able to develop vertical extent worthy of thunder. Only exception might be near Ocala later in the day where there could be some extra low level upward forcing due to sea breeze convergences, however that possibility is yet even below the low end on the scale.

Still looking to see a more pronounced change late in the weekend into very early next week just in time for daylight savings time to end. The change will be gradual and of little consequence other than to bring temperatures back down to normal values.

Eye of the High

(altocumulus clouds made for a nice sunset)

...the title says it all, because that's where we are. Smack dab in the center of a vertically stacked high pressure system. If there was ever a day we would NOT see storms despite a somewhat moist airmass it would be today!. I really hope "Ma Nature" proves me wrong today, I really do.

As expected, the high over the Western Atlantic has retrograded at the mid-upper levels and Florida is wearing it like a baseball cap. At the surface the ridge axis extends from the center located over the mid-Atlantic region down the US East Coast. So it's "High pressure, high pressure, everywhere you look". It's a totally different story as one heads west though into the Mississippi Valley and the Southern and Central Plains where severe weather abounds (lucky dogs). But we have one thing going for us, and I hope you'll agree, and that thing is 'warmth'!...Ahhhh. Western Nebraska and Southeast Wyoming are getting dumped on by snow...as is the Denver, Colorado area.

So when will things get fun around here? Good question. When you know, please fill me in because I don't see anything remotely "interesting" here in like..'forever'. Don't get me wrong, there might be some changes in store for us as we go into the weekend and early next week, but at this time those changes won't be in the 'active weather' category. Just maybe a slight cool down. Well, considering we have been near record high temperatures the past few days, that sort of change would be inevitable.

So for today, honestly I didn't pry very hard into looking for an excuse as to why it could rain today, despite what I'm hearing on The Weather Channel this morning (as I type)...I just don't see an excuse for ANYTHING today...(shrug)

Launch of ARES 1-X As Shot From Cape Canaveral

The video associated with this launch is available on You Tube

Last Gasp Today At Rain

(in celebration of the potential ARES 1-X Launch today I posted this photo)

Surprise surprise, it rained last night and we even got a tiny bit of the flash-boom stuff, but nothing to write home about (or barely in the blog). I would consider that event a 'bust' on my forecast checklist as I didn't see a chance in blue blazes anything would happen yesterday (granted it didn't happen until well after dark).

Today: Strong high pressure is centered over the Western Atlantic and currently Florida is on the western edge of this system. A very deep trough is entrenched over the west half of the country which will dig even deeper as the high retrogrades west and becomes entrenched directly overhead by late Thursday. Until the high pressure is firmly overhead I think portions of the state have a shot at rain again today. But for east central Florida or any coastal community on either coast it's going to have to be before 4pm. Westerly steering currents (from west to east) currently in place will weaken as the high builds in and a sea breeze may form as well by mid afternoon on both coasts as it does so. Once that occurs the chances for rain along the coasts is slim to none.

Tomorrow: High pressure and subsidence will be the words for the day. A stabilized air mass under high pressure and drier air will reign supreme, squelching all chances of rain for about everywhere on the peninsula. The high will be directly overhead at least into the weekend. So enjoy the dry weather if you're so inclined to like nice weather (frown). By the way, Melbourne tied a record high temperature yesterday, and given they don't feel the impact of a sea breeze too soon, may even break the record high today.

Sweet Summer Has Made A Late Season Return

(My cat got to this poor guy this morning. I'm releasing him back to freedom. Click to enlarge)

Man it's nice outside today. Nice and breezy, warm, with a chance of storms...so they say. I'm not buying into the last part all so much though. Looks like it will be almost like one of a type of summer day pattern. The type of day where the wind is off the ocean all day, lots of high level clouds, and low chance of thunderstorms along the coast. And such it is today.

A weakly defined 'warm front' lies draped across North/Central Florida which is pushing north and basically damping out..like the last ripple of a series in the water from a dropped pebble. Its just sort of rippling and dying to become a non-entity by later today. In the meantime, a similarly weak cool front extends North/South across the central panhandle. It is by that boundary that all the weather will happen today.

The air mass over east central Florida this morning has moistened considerably since past days, but instability is highly lacking as is any low level forcing or convergence. We won't have the usual sea-breeze convergences today...and with no upper level triggers to manifest themselves it appears that what we see now is pretty much what we get for the rest of the day...given some variability in the cloud cover..and perhaps a very light shower..I just don't see cause for alarm today (as much as I'd like to be an alarmist). Let's face it, nice weather is nice, but change is good...so bring on the storms!

Still don't see much reason to set the umbrella by the door for preparations tomorrow as there really won't be much change. We will remain entrenched in a sort of bland, duck soupy air mass which I suppose beats Cream of Mushroom...but without the spices and heating the air is just going to sort of blow around and not do much. Hopefully, I'm wrong...only tomorrow will tell.

A Rehash Of Saturday's Post (so click me)

(the 'dayz' of summer)

Supposedly, if you click on the title of today's post it will take you to Saturday's. Good reason for that and it's no accident; that post was actually pretty accurate and depicted the current "sitch". No "tors" or "flangs" (flash-bangs). I like "bash" better (bang-flash)...problem is that's not in the correct eventful order for a "cg" (cloud to ground lightning). ROFLMFAO (ad naseum)!!!

If you read Saturday's post you'll know what I just said in the preceding sentences.

The front as discussed on Saturday is indeed lurking awkwardly off the coast aligned somewhat along the Gulf Stream and up the coast off East Central Georgia. It actually exists in our area as an inverted trough running from SSW to NE across the vicinity. Being as such, convergence along this boundary is non-existant and moisture at the necessary atmospheric levels is still lacking. Hence, I'm going to stick with my six-shooter and fire a round of "no storms today" to the Supercell Death Squad, or as what would be known in the Storm Chaser realms as those suffering from SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome). About the only thing we have going for us today is heat, but the coast won't see that either due to an onshore flow (wind direction) component.

I really don't see anything very exciting happening from the meteorological perspective until maybe Wednesday, and I'm not leaving much credence to the mid-range model guidance at this point. My best 'guess' is that we're going to have to wait until the next frontal system approaches which will not only enhance some deep, low level flow, but also increase the moisture throughout the layer to appreciable values. And that event is questionable. I know what the models are saying for when and where all this is to take place, but I don't believe it..and until I have a resource to trust from which to base a forecast on...I'll say the closest is the GFS model.

"Flat" Day Ahead

A hand, human liver and a brain make for a lucious holiday feast at last night's holiday party put on by a storm chaser

Normally when one hears such words in these parts the first thought is "Oh,, the waves are flat. No good surfing"...but in this case it means "no 'good' weather". We will have weather today...the kind that's mostly dry with occasional bouts of clouds and comfortable temperatures. A moderate ENE-NE wind might develop by mid-afternoon making the coast feel a tad cooler.

The models are all in very close agreement with each other, including the fact that they are putting the edge of rain right on Cape Canaveral; however, I believe that area depicted will manifest itself as dense low to mid level clouds off and on throughout the day mainly right along the coastal communities. All models also depict an inverted trough axis extending from just off Miami and off shore up the coast. It almost looks like this would actually be a manifestation of the Gulf Stream more than anything else.

In either case, the effect is the same. This pattern will hold tight for a good 2 days so until things change there may actually be very little worth writing about. Temperatures will be around normal with no extremes. Just typical early fall stuff out there...demanding that folks have something else to talk about besides the weather. Guess that means I'll be keeping my mouth shut for awhile.

Not An Altogether Ageostrophic Day

Above photo: shown is a storm chaser's car somewhere near Trinidad, NM

Index:

"sitch" - situation, like the syoptic sitch is heavy duty we might be in for a major storm

"siggy" - significant, like there's a 'siggy' chance of tors today

"tors" - tornadoes

"The sitch is bad, there's a siggy chance of tors today. Could be baseballs and flangs too."

Things are progressing as expected from the meteorological side of life. I think the other side of my life is less predictable than the weather. But here's the "sitch". A front lies NNE-SSW bisecting the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will progress eastward and be nearly on top of Brevard County by around 2pm. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure 'area' is approaching SE Florida, with arrival there about the same time.

Models: Today's forecast is based on a blend of the NAM, RUC, and GFS as they are all in relatively close agreement. Although not exact in nature in the short term, the end result is almost identical by most synoptic perspectives. Thus, other than localized affects and knowing exactly where/when it will rain, today really isn't too hard despite all the things that are going on. Seems weird doesn't it? The best way to approach today is with a broad-brush. It's impossible to know exactly when / where it will rain without the luxury of short-term or rather NOWCASTS. With little in dynamics and not so cool air aloft the atmosphere is pretty much ageostrophic, meaning not too good a chance of any significant storms which seems weird considering everything that's going on.

Expect the front to progress as forecast toward East Central Florida during the day but with not much associated action with it. The upper levels are too dry but last I saw our lower levels in the immediate area have changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the time that front went through last week...for the first time. So that does leave a bit of a challenge. We definitely will have more moisture to work with, but that low approaching SE Fl. will not affect us at all. I expect that what will happen is that it will either be absorbed by the front or linger around SE Fl. for a day or two. Either way the outcome is the same. The low will provide additional moisture to the front which will stream NNE into Central Florida later in the day. Believe it or not, it's not TOO likely to rain until after 2pm today with the greater likelihood being sometime after 6pm. The west side of the state might be oh so unfortunate to not see anything from this set-up as they will be behind all the action (the front). But that won't last too long, maybe a day or two.

The front should push through sometime near 8pm then linger very near by for at least a day but far enough east to put us in a NNE wind (YUCCH). Either the same low or a new one will form along it and rotate NE up the SE U.S. coast...with us just a smidge behind the boundary, yet close enough to still see a chance of rain. Once the low gets into the area around N. Carolina the front will retrograde to the NW and put all of Central Florida into a moist SSW regime for at least two days.

While we sit in this regime yet another in the series of disturbances which will be evolving in this very progressive pattern will be entering the lower Mississippi Valley and approach Florida. I'm not going to go any further at this point as we have enough to deal with on our plate with what's at hand to be concerned with 3-4 days from now. Agreed?

Not sure how the NE U.S. will fare in this set-up as I honestly forgot to look. I have interests up there and like to keep an eyeball out to see what kind of atmosphere they are toodling around in too! And you might too, so why the heck not give that area a plug now and then. I have a feeling they are going to get wet big time though. This was mentioned several days ago as a matter of fact when I first mentioned that we were entering a very active pattern as far as the entire U.S. is concerned (a progressive pattern). But that won't happen until that aforementioned low rides further up the coast. At least not in a more "siggy" fashion.

More on locally though. I'm afraid some of the 'worst' (wettest) of the weather may occur right around sunset. The opt out on this is if we get some good rains earlier that stabilizes the atmosphere. I think initially when the front goes thru the atmosphere will indeed have been stabilized, but with time as it lingers about it will revamp sometime tomorrow. We can leave that for another blog. Lots of bases to cover today. Look for a chance of rain from 2pm and after with the greatest chance from 4-9pm. There...that about sums it up.

Are We Home Yet?

The first storm pictures I ever took as a 12 year old lay above

The answer to that question is as expected a resounding NO. Meaning, we're not home to any siggy rain or storms and more of the same. I'm starting to sound and feel like a broken record. And why do they say that anyway. Wouldn't it be the record player that's broken? A broken record can't make any sound to sound like. Enough of the philosophy lesson, time to get down to the meteorology of the moment.

As expected, the high pressure system that had originally brought us all the cool air (remember that?) has moved on well into the Atlantic. As a result, we will receive return flow out of the southeast today with no dynamics and drier air aloft. However, things look a fraction of a air better today for a possible morning shower near the coast that would be very low topped and whimpy, whimpy, whimpy.

Meanwhile, the mean cold front will be approaching western Florida but will likely never make it there as it's main energy source will be gyration off to the NNE and stretching the front as if on a torture stretcher. Torture for us is what it is. There still appears that lower pressure and a big puddle of moisture will approach southeast Florida during the course of the day but never reach here until at least overnight. I don't think there will ever be a collision of forces as the front will be long gone. Really not much to say for today despite how hard I've tried. I would give today being just short of a nil chance of rain, but there is that remote chance so as I begrudgingly hang my head I mutter...it might just maybe. But don't sweat it.

In fact, it could be late Sunday when any real chance materializes. I'd have to say that the highlight for the next few days will be nice warm temperatures. But I wouldn't lather up the sunscreen just yet, as there may be periods of clouds just like yesterday. I'm too tired to write much more this morning. It's hard to dig up material when there's nothing to write about anyway. I think I hear the weekend knocking...gotta go answer the door.

On another note, I added a new video over there to the right. The top one. I was working all night to swap in the right audio and finally got it there but wouldn't you know that YouTube had some other trick up its sleeve and took it from me without asking. So I kept trying to get audio for it, but if it wasn't one thing it was another so I finally gave up and determined that YouTube is "broken" right now. So if you happen to watch it, the accompaniment is not of my choosing but rather the system's.