Severely "Clear and Pleasant" Today

 Severe  -  strict in judgment, discipline, or government

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure both at the surface and aloft will dominant the weather across East Central Florida through Saturday. A few sparse cirrus clouds may whisp over the region as we will be under anticyclonic curvature aloft. At the surface, high pressure will move across the N. Gulf of Mexico and be directly overhead by Friday morning providing for prime radiational cooling.

 

TODAY: Abundant sunshine!!  Even though it's still dark out I'd bet my bottom dollar it will be clear upon rising of the sun. The temperature in Cape Canaveral as of 6am is around 67 degrees, with lower temperatures inland. Wind is calm.

 

Expect a morning low around 66 degrees with clear skies and calm winds.  Temperatures will be quick to warm with a high reaching around 80 degrees by noon time.

 

Inland areas today will reach the low 80s, whereas I'm anticipating a weak sea breeze of 5mph or less to develop along the immediate coast east of US-1 by the 1-2 pm time frame during the peak heating hours.  This should temper down the temperature a bit over the very immediate coastal communities to around 78 degrees, whereas inland areas will feel no affect of the cooler, modified oceanic air mass.

 

TONIGHT: A night with prime radiational cooling with high pressure center both at the surface and aloft directly overhead. Lows along the coast will actually be modified upward of what they could be along the A1A corridor because of close proximity to the ocean. Lows in the mid-60s along the coast and closer to 61 west of the Banana River.

 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: High pressure to shift east of the state with an east wind gradually veering to ESE then SE then eventually South by Saturday.  Highs continuing the same pattern as today but warming by as much as 5 more degrees by Saturday afternoon.  The coast will continue to feel the cooling affect produced by ocean temperatures now in the low 70s each day. 

 

We will see a continual increase in mainly high clouds and some widely scattered cumulus clouds through out the period.

 

SUNDAY: The storm system that by this time will have been widely publicized due to all the severe weather it will have produced from Colorado to Alabama will be knocking on 'heaven's"  door.  Late Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning will be the time to watch.

 

LATE SUNDAY/VERY EARLY MONDAY: I might be writing about the possibility of severe weather to nearly approach the area for this time frame!  More to come as the time draws nigh, but at this time I suspect we might dodge the 'severe' level bullet.

FCST AMEND NO. 001

This is an Amendment to today's forecast post for the period "TODAY":

Include during the remaining daylight hours of today the chance of rainshowers and Isolated thunderstorms. Early morning model runs are now indicating a second boundary which may produce enough lift combined with unquestionably enough moisture for such to manifest with the heating of the day.

 

NOTE: This was my original thinking of what would happen for today which is why I had rain chances in the post made yesterday. I amended that one to take rain chances out; however, it does not seem prudent to re-introduce rain chances back in (after I had amended to take them out).

 

We are not talking wash out conditions by any means, but I also didn't want anyone to believe that there was no way it could rain again today, namely because the possibility is still quite real.

 

Geesh...when will I learn to trust my own initial gut feelings. This is often the bane of a storm chasers existence too! 

 

Good day to all who read this and stay dry.

 

"We Heard Thunder...."

Images: Depict the thunderstorm from very early this morning from a variety of perspectives as well as show the location of the small surface low pressure area and a forecast plat from the RUC model

"I heard thunder, but there's no rain....this kind of thunder break wall on window pane" - The Prodigy

Interesting mini-mini-event early this morning as a thunderstorm prompted a special weather statement regarding the concern for funnel clouds which occurred mainly between 4-4:30 a.m. in the Viera area. The possibility for thunder was mentioned yesterday, so this did not come as a total surprise. Otherwise, most areas received what appears to be about 1/4" of rain or thereabouts early this Wednesday morning.

SYNOPSIS: Axis of low pressure and small surface low over east central Florida will all push east today as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico quickly builds east on its heals across the region late this morning into the afternoon hours

TODAY: Cloudiness and possibility a weak patch of a sprinkle will pass overhead during the remainder of the predawn hours and up until nearly noon time. Winds will be light initially but eventually become west right about the time clearing will commence. Because of the early cloudiness some of our heating of the day will be hampered but no entirely. Thus, we can expect a high much like it's been in previous days...or actually warmer! Why? Because we will not have a sea breeze today. YEAH! Thus, we should see just about 80 degrees today under gradually clearing skies. By sunset there will be only a few scrapplings in the sky.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low in the mid 60s along the coast and closer to 60 working west of I-95.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Clear to partly cloudy with a high around 80-84 degrees with light winds. Coolest close to the Atlantic waters. Lows gradually warming and approaching 70 right along the coast and mid 60s well inland.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Okay, time to get flaky again. Another system will be approaching the area...but I think we'll eke out Sunday (and thus the weekend) for the most part before any rain hits. The next system may introduce yet again a chance of the wet stuff...but the ingredients for Monday and Tuesday are just now beginning to impact the U.S. West Coast, so let's leave that for a better time when a possibly more affirmative assertion as to it effects can be determined.

For now, suffice it to say it looks like we could get some rain on Monday; however, not expecting a big impact to temperatures. OH...and talking about temperatures....we should warm up significantly over the weekend into Monday. In fact, the coast could see 87 degrees by Monday!

AMENDMENT: TO 4/20/10 Post

NOTE: the rain conditions cited for Wednesday in the previous post are valid only through 8am. After that point rain chances will be close to zero. Everything else in the forecast post remains unchanged. In other words, for the majority of Wednesday there is close to no chance of rain after sunrise.

First Vestiges of Summer

Image: A Distant Florida thunderstorm looks like a large mountain of billowing cotton

The technical term for the cloud type that describes a thunderstorm is "cumulonimbus" in the most general way. There exists a variety of adjectives to this, but we'll leave it simple enough. I bring this up because the first vestiges of summer will be experienced the rest of the week ahead. But don't be surprised to see such a pattern be dismissed, as our not so official June 1/first day of summer is still far enough away that we could still see a significant stray from this pattern to occur i[ until mid-May.

SYNOPSIS: A short-wave trough will pass by to the north later this afternoon and evening. An appendant axis of lower pressure will exist with this system down the spine of the state. The result will be another day of inland shower and thunderstorm activity as was the case yesterday. Yet another one will pass on Wednesday. After these systems have passed strong high pressure will build north out of the Gulf of Mexico for the following several days which will exert its influence across the state through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

TODAY: A day very similar to yesterday will reign supreme with abundant sunshine for most of the day with no significant cloud coverage. Skies will be partly cloudy with a high along the immediate coast in the mid-70s but a good 5 degrees plus warmer once one gets west of US-1. I'm expecting that by late in the afternoon there could be a decent coverage of thunderstorm activity inland. I talked with someone from the Orlando area yesterday who stated that they experienced almost constant lightning in a storm they had there, if you can believe it.

Despite the fact that these storms will exist they will have an awful time trying to penetrate the modified oceanic air mass along the coast. Therefore, the coastal communities should be spared the wrath and only see an increase in clouds very late in the afternoon and into the evening with perhaps a driplet or two falling from the heavens upon our land (east of I-95).

All poetic license aside, expect that yesterday layed the blue print for today's weather. That is to say...photocopy the days.

WEDNESDAY: Actually, despite what I've been seeing/hearing over the media waves, I'm not so sure we will remain dry. Another short-wave trough (disturbance) will pass to the north but this one appears to be stronger.

With that said, the coastal communities might also be shared the wealth of the wet stuff on Wednesday with a thunderstorm or rain shower much more of a distinct possibility. Even so, if the coast does get in on the act one will still have to be in the right spot (or wrong spot depending on how one looks at it) to require the rain slicker.

In other words, there's a little better chance that the areas east of I-95 will see some rain and some of the boisterous loud bangers by late afternoon through the evening.

In fact, one of the models is indicating a healthy coverage up and down the east coast tomorrow by late afternoon lasting into the evening as it moves from west to east and out to sea.

But be not dismayed, because after Wednesday it will be a while before we see rain.

THURSDAY (and BEYOND): Despite what happens on Wednesday, if anything, we will start to see height rises in the 500mb layer which will result in a slow warming trend. Indeed, each day will be progressively warmer from Thursday through at least Sunday.

In fact, by Sunday the beaches could experience 85 degrees and areas west of I-95 will be looking at the big 9-0 on the old mercury (assuming one is not looking at a digital thermometer).

The next system to reach the state with any impact now appears to occur on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that get extended yet further out into the future if ever.

SUMMARY: Chance of rain on the coast Wednesday then warmer and dry into the weekend.

A Tale of Two Lows

Images: Forecasted system locations at 2pm from the NAM model and last nights satellite image which I just thought looked pretty cool.

Okay, so today might not be a total washout as expected, but the rains aren't over yet. You can see from the image that we still have two lows and a front in the afternoon. I believe that as the sun rises some of the clouds over us will break up some to mostly cloudy and maybe even partly cloudy conditions. But with heating of the day and a little instability, we could stand a chance to hear thunder today. Tomorrow will be similar. If we actaully get a strong thunderstorm today it could produce very small hail, but at this point even thunder is a big stretch.

THIS MORNING: Cloudy at first then breaking up a bit by 10:30am. Wind ENE to NE at 3-9 mph.

LATER TODAY: Rain showers and thundershowers to form across the state. Believe your best chance to hear thunder will be between 2-9pm. Rains ending late. I have to say there's a better than average chance we will get wet along the East Coast of Florida just about anywhere. High temperature around 76 with ENE winds at 10-18mph.

TUESDAY: Pretty much a carbon copy of what today will bring.

FURTHER OUT: With too much unsurety...and being that this is only an unofficial blog, I think I can say with some confidence that no one else truly knows what Wednesday will bring. But for the most part it appears our rain/thunderstorm activity will be diurnally driven. And that could be anytime in the afternoon, mainly after 3pm for folks near the coasts - earlier inland.

Diffuse Day to be Delivered

Image: An early morning KSC sounding

Weak and hard to determine frontal boundary overhead today will reign supreme. This boundary so to speak will be with us for another day or so, but weak convergence and little in instability or shear will generate mostly an unorganized pattern of clouds and areas of precipitation. This pattern will be with us for another day or so until something decides to make up its mind.

TODAY: It's hard to find the fronts position, but it seems to be laying directly across Central Florida. There is little activity along it this morning, but given the moderate moisture content we'll go for a cloudy day all day with a pretty decent chance of rainshowers at any time. Mostly by late afternoon right after peak heating and into the night Winds variable and light with a high in the mid-upper 70s.

TONIGHT/MONDAY: Low pressure in the Gulf to track across S. Florida will increase our chances of rain with a low along the coast around 70 and a high in the mid-upper 70s.

TUESDAY: Things start to move out with improving ever so slowly conditions

BEYOND: Very hard to say at this point but will go with a slight chance of showers at anytime but mostly during the peak heating hours of 12pm -- 5pm

Rainy Days and Mondays Always Get.....

(Images include the sunrise and my cat Lola)

Looks like another beautiful day today in prelude of things to come for a time the next day or so. Have you planned your storm chasing vacation yet!?

TODAY: Very similar to yesterday with scattered clouds and some filtered sunshine at times, but nothing to terribly bad. High again along the coast should reach near 79 with a low of 69 right along the coast with a SE wind around 10-15mph. Sort of like it should be this time of year in other words.

TONIGHT: Some increasing clouds with a low around 70 and south winds of about 5-9 mph. The rain clouds will be formulating over South Florida by now for sure.

EARLY SUNDAY: A SW wind around 10-20 mph with increasing clouds throughout the day. A cold front will be very near by, but that's not our player. That is going to be a low pressure system crossing the southern part of the state. Rain will be looming just to our south all day.

LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain will be knocking on the door right before sunset. But over night it should be moving in...could see up to 1/2 inch or so in some locales.

MONDAY: Rain off and on all day. The big old question will be if we get to hear thunder. It's been just TOO long for that...we deserve a break. Sure wish we could hear some of that good old rock and roll.

TUESDAY MORNING: Rain ending, if not all ready by sunrise. So plan your morning beach walks accordingly. A cooler day than most of recent days with gradual clearing throughout the day and NE-E winds.

REST OF THE WEEK: Looks like nice days with variable clouds and a chance of afternoon showers in the afternoons. Hate to sound vague, but this period of time is a "low confidence" forecast for the finer details of life.

Most Clear and Pleasant Day in Store

Images: Showing high pressure nearly overhead today on Joan Rivers

Today will be a much nicer day than many of late with decreasing easterly winds and plenty of sunshine. In fact, tomorrow looks to be of similar nature with the only real chance of rain appearing as of now to be around later Sunday...when in fact a weak cold front will be getting ready to pass thru. We might as well throw in a chance of thunder on that day...so keep one's eyes to the sky by noon time on Sunday.

Saturday: A few more clouds with winds shifting to southeast at about 10 mph, but mostly sunny as well.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with SW winds initially and rain chances increasing into the afternoon.

Later Sunday: Mostly cloud with winds shifting to ENE at 10mph.

The days after look to be mostly dry but a little cooler with NE winds at 10-18mph. A very small chance of rain can't be ignored though of Tuesday, especially right along the east coast.

Are YOU A/C Ready?

Images: Variety due to lack of siggy weather.....(non-significant)

Once Again..not much to speak of. A slow warming trend to continue..with coastal temps peaking around 77 degrees although I think we'll break 80 on Thursday as a front moves into the area. Reason being, we will lose the seabreeze and have a Southwest wind around 20 mph. I would not be surprised if we befoggle the forecast models and hit 83 degrees by 6pm. HIT THE POOL folks :-) I actually turned the A/C on for about 1 hour earlier today.

A very slight chance of rain showers on Friday..but changes for real are gradually continuing. Notice how it's not getting cold any more? Just sort of "all of a sudden".......

In general, lows along the coast will be in the upper 60s except Saturday and Sunday..low to mid 60s. Clouds on the increase beginning Wednesday as more mid-upper level moisture works into the state. But other than in increase in clouds mid week..and a brief period of cooler temps (note: not very cool or cold though)...we will maintain the typical "dry for this time of year" regime.

Boring to the hilt. Have to get out to the Plains to see some beautifully structuterd works of God..the storms of the Great Plains are truly a beautiful thing.

Happy Easter

 

 

A Glorious Easter To All

Image: Mammatocumulus Clouds over Cape Canaveral at Sunset

In recognition of the day, this post will be very brief.

It looks like we stand a chance of same rain/thundershowers come late Thursday through the first half of Friday. Other than that period, the weather across east Central Florida will remain benignly pleasant. Lows in the mid-upper 60s along the coast (lower 60s away from the coast)..and highs in the mid-upper 70s and approaching 80 along the coast...and low 80s inland. In essence, we'll be right where we should be.

As for the rain on Thursday and Friday. It won't be a "rain out", if indeed it even rains at all. We will be on the tail end of a storm system that could create some significantly severe weather from Missouri and Iowa and points east to the Atlantic Coast starting Monday. The front will go through here early Friday..and once it passes we'll be back to status quo until the next weekend..at least.

Enjoy, and Happy Glorious...outstanding Easter.

Surf Contest a Money Making Scheme!

Nothing to say. Multi-deep layer high pressure rules the roost over peninsular Florida for MANY days to come. What this does is block storm systems from impinging upon the region. Seeing how it rules the roost..it could lay some eggs that will create possibly some light fog on some mornings. Wanna go surfing? WHAT A JOKE. A surf contest this weekend with waves a big 6 inches high. So sad. They should know better than to schedule a surf contest in early April. The absolute WORST time to have one...other than maybe July....Oh so sad.

But hey. traffic is insane..so hand it to those who want to make money during spring break.

-Steve

Picture Perfect Day in Store

IMAGE: My hero on the right

This will be a brief post today...and maybe my last for a while. Weather is so benign that I can sum it up in one small paragraph for almost a week.

NICE! Lows in the mid-60s and highs in the mid-upper 70s along the coast and low 80s inland. Clear skies and light east wind in the afternoon. No changes until maybe Thursday time frame...and even that change looks to be insignif. attm (at this time).

Ditto Days Ahead

Image: Ridge of high pressure reflected at the surface as shown in this image

Weather pattern to change very little for a week.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure at the surface and aloft over the far eastern GOM will drift slowly east and across the state through the weekend. Low pressure systems and cold fronts will be deflected to the northeast over the dome of persistant high pressure. Thank goodness it's not the middle of summer, because if it were we''d be baking hot!!

THE NEXT 6 DAYS: Mostly clear with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs initially in the mid 70s to low 80s inland. The low temperatures will warm a few degrees whereas the highs will remain mostly just below 80 along the coast and up to the mid 80s by the weekend and into next week.

The next front to even remotely affect the peninsula portion of the state is slated for next Thursday...however, it seems doubtful that even that scenario will materialize. We'll just have to watch and see. At this point, even if it does affect us it's punch would be brief and weak.

For the fair weather friends, this next entire week was tailored made just for you >: )

Clear Skies To Reign Supreme

Image: Another shot of the moon taken at 5:30am this morning

Not much to write about so this will be very brief. Would like to take a moment to thank all of you who have followed these ramblings from time to time. Feel free to contact me and let me know if there's something specific you'ld like to see in the blog...or if there's something particular about it that you like...than by all means feel free to let me know.

SYNOPISIS: Essentially what we have is a broad expanse of high pressure over the eastern Gulf building north and eastward...spreading the fair weather wealth to all of us east of the Mississippi by late Thursday. Florida in particular will be under the influence of this high for the next week...at least.

TODAY: Cool start with our low around 56-57 and a high around 73. Light west wind to start the day becomes light NNE for mid-afternoon under a clear sky. Winds under 10mph (for the next week).

TONIGHT: Not quite as cool with a low near 59 and light NE wind. Clear.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Nearly clear every day with temperatures right at or slightly above seasonal norms. Lows around 60 and highs approaching 80 right along the coast and low-mid 80s well inland. East wind less than 10mph becoming more southeast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

No sight of rain. Hopefully, we won't have to get in to fire forecasting!

First Full Moon of Spring Heralds Easter's Arrival

Images: Full moon last night from two different view points color and grey scaled

SYNOPSIS: Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon, after the first day of spring. And it's official. Just look at the moon we had last night!

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast this morning will continue to swing off to the northeast and up the coast of New England during the day creating "the pits" for weather up that way. Meanwhile, a broad area of strong high pressure is centered over the central GOM (Gulf of Mexico). This high will shift slowly east and continue to be our weather maker for the next...ugh....8-10 days (at least).

TODAY: Clear skies to start the day with a porch temperature of 56 degrees. PAFB was 55 last I looked and Melbourne was somewhere around 53 or 52. Winds were from the west at 10-15 mph. Remaining clear with maybe a few scraps of stratocumulus (negligible amounts)...and a high a tad cooler than yesterday at 73 degrees.

TONIGHT: Clear with a coastal low of 55. Closer to 49 west of the Indian River.

WEDNESDAY: Clear and high of 74.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear, low of 58.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Finally, we will have temps right on what is considered normal by Thursday...then above normal from Friday thru the weekend under mostly a clear sky, and that includes Easter Sunday. I'm not getting anywhere NEAR the pier if I can help it during the weekend. It was bad enough last Saturday with the reggae fest.

NEXT WEEK: Continued warmer than normal through Thursday. I'll precariously introduce the fact that chances of a quick shot of rain and maybe storms followed by a very brief but potent cool down enters the picture way out there by next weekend sometime...but that is too far off to hang a hat on by any means.

This pattern looks more and more like our April dry period. But it should be noted that past El Nino years have wielded a double edged sword later in our severe weather season (Feb/March). As noted by the NWS in Melbourne:I

"THE TWO MOST NOTABLE CASES WERE IN APRIL 1958/1966 WHEN STRONG
TORNADOES OCCURRED IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO ONE CANNOT SAY THAT THE
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS OVER YET."

Mini-Storm Chase Yields Low End Results

Images: Radar indicating a tornado warned storm yesterday. Click on images to enlarge (they are better that way)

Went on a mini-storm chase yesterday to the Pineda Cswy. due to the persistent looking storm that was wielding a tornado warning. It looked too good on radar to resist. Made it through all of Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral without hitting a single red light so hopes were high that the gods had it for me to see something remarkable. I have no remarks unfortunately. But, I did see the first CGs (and at close range no less) for the first time in about 7 months ;-) And "Oh Yeah!"...thank goodness for Rain-X! It was pouring buckets.

SYNOPSIS: Cold front approaching the west coast this morning as weak PVA (positive vorticity advection) passes over head generating clouds and light to moderate rain patches. PVA will move out by 2pm as the cold front glides through on off to the ESE. High pressure will build in to the SE U.S. through Wednesday and be directly overhead by then...then remain nearly station very close to Florida for an extended period. As a result, storm systems will have a hard time penetrating the peninsular portion of the state for quite some time as it holds stubbornly fast.

TODAY: Off and on rains appear that they will last up until around 1-2pm. Maybe a rumble of thunder but nothing more than that. We received 3.25" inches of rain from this event up to the time of this posting. Sky to remain cloudy after rains end but should start to break up around sunset. If so, we could have a very scenic sunset worthy of photo-ing.

TONIGHT: Clearing sky with a west wind of 10-15mph. Low into Tuesday morning of 56 degrees.

TUESDAY: Clear with a W-WNW of 12-20 mph. High of 72

THE REST OF THE WEEK: Clear with gradual warming to near normal temperatures by the weekend.

EASTER SUNDAY: A few clouds with a low around 65 and high near 82.

FURTHER EXTENDED: No rain in site and continued on the warmer rather than cooler side. YAWN!

Severe Weather Likely In Some Spots Late Today AND Tonight

Image: Forecast for tonight showing two systems that will affect East Central Florida today and tonight

Some interesting weather is in store for much of Peninsular Florida as two distinct disturbances will hit the area. Both will have the potential to produce severe weather across mainly the central portion of the state in the form of hail, wind, and maybe even a tornado. There will likely be some flooding rains as well anywhere from Jacksonville to Lake Okeechobee, primarily along the Eastern 3/4s of the state. Storms to begin first along the west wide near the Big Bend by 2pm.

SYNOPSIS: A trough of low pressure will push across the Deep South during the next 12-36 hours. Embedded mid and upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and traverse across mainly the north central to south central portions of the state. Accompanying these disturbances will be some very 'disturbed' weather! It's advised that all residents in this area remain abreast of local weather conditions any time after 2:30pm today as conditions will initially change very rapidly as the leading edge of impacting weather reaches the area.

FIRST HALF OF TODAY: Initially high clouds will cross the state in association with the southern branch jet stream. Wind will be ESE-SE gradually veering to the south during the course of the day. Winds will blow at about 12-20 mph throughout the day..even in the early morning. Clouds will begin to increase by mid morning and lower levels clouds formulate with heating of the day. High temperature will be a little warmer than yesterday's local high of only 73 to about 76 today. 

BY 2:00pm TODAY: Some discrete storm cells could form just about anywhere from Lake Okeechobee north to Ocala. These will race off to the NNE at about 25-30mph. Probably only contain some lighting at worst..although if a strong one gets well rooted in the boundary layer small hail would not be out of the question.

AFTER 4:00pm TODAY: By this time the extreme western side of the state and further north will already be under the gun as the first of two systems moves in (in the form of an 850mb vort max in combo with CAPEs approaching 1000 and semi-decent low level instability with a cap that will be weakening by the minute. First it will be Hernando, Pasco, and Lake Counties. Then as things get even closer to the center of the state it will be Orange, Volusia, and Seminole...and eventually mainly the north 1/3 of Brevard County. We will likely be in a severe thunderstorm watch or maybe even a tornado watch by 4pm as well, if not earlier. Keep an eye to the sky to the west or SW. Also note, that ahead of this organized system, smaller discrete storm cells could begin to catch the eye of the radar scope even earlier - say about 2pm as noted above. By 2pm also the sky cover will increase significantly becoming over cast at the mid levels. If this does indeed occur then the storms will become difficult to detect approaching other than an unusually dark appearance approaching from a westerly component direction. Early rain showers will be easier to spot. Expect the worst of weather to hit Brevard County...mainly from Cape Canaveral and points north to Daytona in the 7-8pm time frame and then move out by 9pm altogher.

We might see a lull in the action...with no rain at all for a while. But don't be fooled, yet a bigger system will be on the approach well after dark.

AFTER 11pm TONIGHT: The second system will be on the approach in the form of a 500mb vorticity max with greater jet stream winds aloft. However, instability will be much less than that we will experience from event number 1. Believe the main threat from this one will be strong surface winds, although a brief tornado will not be out of the question. It will approach from the west and impact all of Brevard County initially sometime in the 1-2AM time frame. After the initial impact, it will be followed by a prolonged period of moderate rain which could last well up to sunrise with rain totals approaching nearly 3-4 inches! Thus, flooding of some commonly known problem areas across the state will become the story of the day across all of Central and eventually south central Florida. Temperatures during this time will be in the mid 60s and winds will be SW-WSW at about 10-15mph outside of the heavier showers. The thunderstorm threat though should wane after 8AM.

FIRST HALF OF MONDAY: See above. Morning low will be around 64 degrees with a WSW wind and continued elevated rain chances. It currently appears that the rain will end, at around 12PM -2PM in abrupt fashion. 

SECOND HALF OF MONDAY: Rain to abate but continued cloudy until nearly sunset. Winds will be west at 10-15mph with a high around 70 degrees. The cold front associated with the trough will pass through after sunset...heralding....

TUESDAY: ....clearing skies with a continued west wind and a low of 55 degrees. By mid morning the sky will be clear with a high of about 71. West wind of 10mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clear with a low around 56 degrees. High around 73.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Mostly clear to start the period with scattered clouds by the weekend. Temperatures moderating to what one would consider normal for this time of year. No rain chance.

SUNDAY AND POINTS ON: We might start to be affected by another system sometime around late Monday or Tuesday...but that is too far out for any further speculation.

Here Today -- Gone Tomorrow, Late

Image: Forecast depiction of big rain totals impacting East Central Florida by Monday at 2am in the morning

SYNOPSIS: High pressure centered along the U.S. East Coast over New York state is ridging south along the entire U.S. east coast.  Meanwhile, a surface low is centered just south of Medicine Lodge (P28), Kansas along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. The surface ridge and low will shift east during the course of the next  24-48 hours...putting Florida under the influence of the low and appendent trough rather than the ridge axis as we will  experience today.

TODAY: Clockwise circulation around the surface high over New York will place Florida under a N-NE wind for the first half of the day at about 8-12mph by 10a.m.. After a cool start of 63 degrees from my vantage point we will warm nicely into the mid-upper 70s today. As has been the case of late, the coolest temperatures in the state today will be along and east of A1A where the cooling effect of the ocean water (and subsequent air just above that water) will be felt. Expect the high east of A1A to be around 73-75 whereas west of the Banana River 76-79 is much more likely. It was previously thought that we could get a little windy today ...but based on the early morning sounding and the weaker pressure gradient between our two systems...I don't believe it will get as breezy as the official forecast was making it seem it would be yesterday. Sky will be mostly clear with only a few sparse, thin high clouds from time to time. In other words, better sky conditions than yesterday but a little cooler by about 5-7 degrees across the boards.

TONIGHT: Not as cool as last night/this morning with a low closer to 67 degrees and a few clouds. Very light east wind at 5mph or less.

SUNDAY: Very pleasant to start the day. Wind will shift to the SE by mid morning and after a 67 degree start to the day we will warm to around 78 degrees. During the course of the day winds will become more southerly and pick up to the 12-19 mph range as clouds increase. First thin high clouds, then some lower cumulus clouds will sprout. By mid- late afternoon expect a plethora of various clouds at all levels to formulate and increase in density and coverage as the first vestiges of what's to come moves onto the west coast from Sarasota and points north. I wouldn't want to be on the beach anytime after 4:30pm as things will rapidly start to get a bit shaky with thunderstorms possibly erupting to the west and heading this way. I won't be surprised if we end up in a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch Box prior to 4-5pm tomorrow!   

Believe that a prefrontal trough will move into Florida and cross the state with discrete cells prior to it's arrival starting to pop by 4pm. The actual prefrontal trough could harbor itself as a broken squall line with embedded bowing segments...and potentially supercell thunderstorms. We actually could have two convective (thunderstorm) episodes. The first would be diurnally induced storms given we will have some CAPE and decent lapse rates under basically a zero CAP. Strong upper level winds along with approaching low level jet will produce enough lift to generate these storms; however, these initial storms could weaken significantly as they approach the coast (mainly east of US 1) due to the cooler air (from the ocean) which often saps them of strength..but there will also be  plentiful low and mid level moisture values. So some of these might be able to sustain themselves to at least be a big wind and lightning threat along the immediate coast as well. Then the second round as the prefrontal trough moves in accompanied by a low level jet. This will be of even greater consequence/threat. The time frame for this potential and more likely second round is between 6-8pm. I'd be keeping abreast of the weather around here in any case any time after 3:30pm tomorrow !!

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Rain! Thunderstorms could be ongoing until the 1-2am time frame..but eventual stabilization of the atmosphere will yield to mostly just rainy conditions for all of Monday with a high in the mid 70s if we're lucky..probably more likely low 70s....prior to cold frontal passage. It currently appears that the front will pass through quite ajarringly, is that a word (?) by 7-8pm...essentially right at or before sunset. Skies will clear fairly rapidly but not during the daylight time frame.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies and cooler with a low by Tuesday morning of 55 degrees.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Back to somewhat cooler conditions for these days and dry. Skies mostly clear with sparsely scattered clouds. Low along the coast in the mid 50s for that brisk morning walk and a high both days in the lower 70s.

FURTHER OUT: Gradual warming trend and dry. No rain in the foreseeable future..at least not for a good 10 days.

3 Dry Days - 1 Wet Day - More Dry Days

(Image: Here I am running for cover in Garden City, Kansas. Toto was no where to be seen)

SYNOPSIS: Pre-frontal boundary that passed through around midnight, instigating a severe thunderstorm warning for most of Central Brevard County, has weakened and is well south of the area. A cold front extending south into the East-Central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is moving rapidly east and will be nearly overhead around the 2-3pm time frame. DLM (Deep Layer Mean) ridge of High Pressure to dominate the local area by late afternoon through mid-day Sunday.

TODAY: Temperature at 7a.m. a sticky 68 degrees under cloudy skies with a light WSW wind. Expect that with some stronger sun light that the clouds will begin to break up in the 10-11am time frame and at the same time the wind will pick up out of the west at 15-20 mph. Any additional rain to fall today will be ahead of the actual surface front, but south of Brevard County. More like across the east half of the state from West  Palm Beach and points south. Given (hoping) the clouds to clear for the most part NLT (no later than noon) we could easily get up to 79 degrees today (plus or minus 2 degrees). Would be nice to actually hit the big 8-0 though!  Approaching, passive in nature, cold front will be overhead by 2-3pm..and pass on east and south through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Wind will shift to west or WNW and lighten up.

TONIGHT: Seasonably normal low around 58-60 right along the coast and a few degrees cooler west of the Indian River. Stacked DLM Ridge extending the whole way up to Canada will move over head and be our weather maker for all of Saturday and the earlier portion of Sunday as yet another in the progressive train of storm systems enters the southeast U.S.

SATURDAY: As stated above, seasonably normal temperature wise to start the day with just a few scattered clouds and a light north wind. Wind will quickly swing around to the NE and eventually E or even ESE by sunset and blow in at a 12-18 mph pace. Unfortunately, such a wind direction / speed will harbor entrance of that seemingly "never going to go away" cool ocean air that's residing above the even cooler ocean waters. Thus, even though the morning will be normal temperature wise, the afternoon will continue its pace of being 5-8 degrees below normal.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AFTERNOON: ESE-SE wind to start the day at 7mph to pick up to the 9-14mph range by 10-11am with variably partly cloudy sky conditions. Low right at or slightly below 60 degrees along the coast and a notch cooler west of the Indian River once again. A plethora of cloud types at varying heights to paint the sky throughout the day...but increasing significantly by early afternoon. Probably not so great a day for the beach, but no detriment to other outside activities. Surface winds could get a little hearty though over the open Atlantic and River(s) waters...creating less than ideal boating or related activities. High in the low-mid 70s close to the coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95.

SUNDAY NIGHT/ALL OF MONDAY: Thickening cloud cover and an approaching frontal system might again yield some significantly strong thunderstorms with the primary threat being wind. It appears that a squall line of sorts could formulate which would harbor some healthy downdrafts  in the heaviest of rain laden sectors of the line. Lightning is a given should such a formation take hold. Remember the DLM Ridge I pointed out that will affect us Saturday? Being as it is a DLM Ridge..it won't be too eager to move out..but will only edge slightly east into a position in the Western Atlantic. It will hold its ground for all of Monday..which will prevent what will remain of the convective boundary to move out any time soon. As a result, things could act like a clogged up sink Monday..with moisture backing up over the area resulting in continued elevated rain chances with maybe even some embedded thunder. But most likely just rain. Temperatures as a result of the rain will be right around 70 degrees but rise a few degrees during non-rainy times.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Gradual clearing as the DLM ridge releases it''s grip and scoots yet further east and out of the picture..thus declogging the 'sink" (Florida) and allowing the trough to pass right on along as well, taking the rains with it. Another ridge to building north from the south and hold tight for quite some time to come.

We will be hearing about all kinds of severe weather occurring in the Plains and the Dixie region, particularly in N. Louisiana, most of Mississippi, S. Arkansas, and western Alabama a few times next week. But the ridge that will build over the area could very well continue to hold fast. As a result, those storm systems will be forced to ride up and over the ridge...that is..into the Great Lakes/S. Canada. We could very well remain dry initially with temperatures right at seasonal norms for low AND high readings for a change...for the first time in a very very long time. Finally!

For now...be on the look out during the very wee hours of Monday up through sunrise. If anything active is going to happen that will be the time, as inconvenient as it is. No rest for the weather weary! At least not in the middle of the night.

Slightly Warmer Today - Chance of Rain Tonight

Image: A lizard outside my door at 4am clings for dear life. He got away just fine.

On this day in Central Florida weather history the worst hailstorm in Florida history struck the
Orlando area just three weeks after another one of the worst hailstorms in Central Florida history ( 3/6/92). Hail up to baseball size hit the University of Central Florida (UCF) and the vast greenhouse areas in western Orange County, crippling the nursery industry in the area. Damage was estimated at 60 - 100 million dollars. Smaller hail also fell in North Florida and as far South as Miami. Thunderstorm winds destroyed a citrus packing plant near Groveland in Lake County, injuring eight. The largest official hailstone recorded was 3.00" at the UCF - the third largest Florida hailstone on record, but residents reported larger hail that melted. While it will remain debatable whether the largest hail of all time fell in this storm (that distinction - 4 1/2"- belongs with the 3/30/95 Polk Co. hailstorm), it was clearly the costliest hailstorm in Florida history.

SYNOPSIS: Frontal system is taking shape over the Deep South this morning which trails into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure east of Florida which passed overhead yesterday will continue an eastward push into the Atlantic as the front approaches the state later today and into tonight.

TODAY: It got down to 65 degrees on the porch this morning. Very pleasant! Lots of thin high clouds to start the day will gradually thicken as we work into the post-noon hours. Mid level clouds will also begin to enter the picture. Wind will be initially ESE-SE at about 5 mph and gradually veer to southerly and eventually SSW by sunset increasing to 10-15mph . Highs today will be around 76 along the coast and a few degrees even warmer west of US1. It may actual warm right along the coast as the wind makes the gradual shift to the SSW late in the afternoon near sunset.

TONIGHT: By sunset it will be completely cloudy with a SSW-SW wind around 10-15mph. By sunset rain showers and thunderstorms will be approaching the west coast from Sarasota northward. These will shift eastward across the state and begin to affect Brevard by 9pm. Initially as very light right in a few scattered locations, but increasing in coverage and intensity through the evening and over night. Thunder is very possible...and some storms might even be somewhat strong. Small hail in fact is not out of the question with the strongest of storms, but most likely any impact from the strong ones will be wind gusts. That's not saying that any one location..or any location for that matter will be hit by one of these, but the possibility for one to generate will exist.

FRIDAY: With a low in the low-mid 60s it could very well be raining at sunrise, or if not raining completely cloudy. The clouds won't be in a big hurry to move out...at least not until noon time or shortly thereafter. Temperatures could then rise into the upper 70s area wide if we can eke out some sunshine early enough.

SATURDAY: ...this day continues to be the primo day of the week. A little cooler with the 'by the skin of our teeth' passage of the frontal barrier passing on. Widely scattered clouds with a high in the mid 70s...but a few degrees cooler right along A1A as winds will regain their onshore component. All in all, a very nice day with no rain once the morning dribbles move out (assuming there will be some).

SUNDAY: Nice to start the day...but the next storm system will be approaching. The first half of the day...if not into late afternoon will be stellar and a little warmer than Saturday. But that next storm system will generate a repeat performance of what tonight's system will do...maybe even a little more active by mid evening.

MONDAY: "Waiter, what's that fly doing in my soup?" Waiter: "Looks like the back stroke to me". And yes in deedy...there will be a fly in the ointment for this forecast time frame as models are widely divergent as to what will become of the system. We have two options...everything moves out by noon or it hangs around until Tuesday morning. Let's just go with a middle of the road option (which I REALLY hate to do),...and have the rain chance dwindle to zero by late afternoon. In any case, Monday looks to be far from stellar - - much unlike Saturday.

TUESDAY: By noon Tuesday the slate will be whipped clean and we'll be on the road toward a prolonged dry period with comfortable temperatures right around the climatological norm. Enjoy. We might not see rain again for nearly a week...if even then!

Temperatures To Approach Above Normal - Finally

Photo: One of two camcorder mounts ordered through Amazon.com. Shown is a window mount for the car. The other one I order is a combo window/dash mount. These will be used for storm video/photographs

SYNOPSIS: High pressure directly overhead this morning to shift east later today as a cold frontal system takes shape over Kansas, Oklahoma, and N. Texas this afternoon. This system will shift east to northeast through week's end, bringing a frontal boundary into our area late Friday. In the meantime, temperatures will continue to moderate and warm to, if not above, seasonal norms by Friday afternoon.

TODAY: Calm, clear start to the day with a sunrise temperature of 57 degrees. Today will be a ditto copy of yesterday as high pressure passes across the state. Just a few "sparsed"  cirrus clouds for most of the day but increasing by mid-late afternoon as a storm system takes shape over the southern and central Plains region. This system could bring some severe weather to parts of S. Oklahoma and N. Texas today. Lucky dogs! Probably no tornadoes but big hail is surely in the offing for them. Winds will be generally light and variable but eventually take on an easterly component at less than 7 mph by mid-day.

TONIGHT: Increasing high clouds as the high pressure moves out to the Atlantic and the frontal system in the Plains creeps closer. Very light east wind at less than 5mph along with some cloud cover will prevent the low temperature from falling below 60 degrees (which is above climatological norms). We'll shoot for a low of 64.

THURSDAY: Diffusely cloudy with mainly high clouds (filtered sunlight in other words) with a light southeast wind of less than 10mph. High temperature around 76 degrees during the hours of 3-4:30pm. Probably a few degrees cooler within 3 blocks of the shoreline though.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a low around 69...can you believe that!? Light southeast wind of 5 mph or less.

FRIDAY: Overcast with high and mid level clouds and a high of..get this..80 degrees. FINALLY. Can we do it? Well, we'll have a southwest wind (no sea breeze)...so why not? Let's do it! However, the chance of rain will come into the picture by afternoon. Let's say there's a pretty good chance of rain somewhere within Brevard County and a high likelihood it will rain somewhere across East Central Florida during the mid-late afternoon. Maybe even some thunder.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain chances wane considerably with skies clearing and a low of around 67. Light west wind.

SATURDAY: As stated yesterday, a stellar day with a high around 75 degrees with a light but somewhat cool feeling wind along the ocean of 10mph. Temperatures right along the shoreline will be a few degrees lower. High pressure will again be passing over but will rapidly be yielding to the next system that will be already approaching.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: The next system, and last one for quite some time, will approach during the latter portions of the weekend. Sunday will start out about the same as Saturday morning with almost clear skies and a low around 66 degrees but warming to about 79 by afternoon. It now looks like the next system won't affect us rain wise until Monday...so we're good for the weekend as far as rain chances go.

MONDAY - SEEMINGLY FOREVER: No storm systems in the making for us with lows continuing in the 65 degree window and highs hovering around 75 plus or minus 2 degrees for a number of days. Possibly getting even warmer though as we get into mid-week (next week). No sig rain chances noted at this time.

So, from the looks of it...we might not be getting into the 50s at all anymore this early spring season. We can officially pack away the coats but I might hold on to the sweater being the cool-weather-wimp that I am.  Like I say..."if it ain't 85 degrees, it ain't warm enough!"

GooFuS or ECMWF - Mix for "Storm Cookie Batter"

Images: Current surface plot, morning temperatures depiction, forecast plot for Wednesday morning

SYNOPSIS: Cloudy morning across Central Florida as a remnant, and mostly dissipated, cool front peters out across the center part of the state. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will build east and be situated directly overhead by sunrise Wednesday (as shown in the forecast image - the 3rd image). High pressure will continue to shift east and into the Atlantic during the day Wednesday as a cold frontal system moves across the Central Plains and into the Tennessee Valley Thursday. This system will be in our neck of the woods Friday with yet another one on it's heels either later Sunday or Monday. Timing of the second front, or even just how long it will impact us rain wise is the biggest fly in the ointment for this blog post.

TODAY: Cloudiness this morning will both erode from the west and dissipate overhead with heating of the day and as anticyclonic flow associated with high pressure pressing across the Gulf this morning begins to directly impact the Central portion of the state. Expect this afternoon to be dictated by clearing skies with predominantly partly cloudy to nearly clear skies by later in the day with a high temperature around 70 degrees. WNW-NW winds around 10-15mph. No rain.

TONIGHT: Clear and calm as high pressure becomes situated directly overhead. This primo radiational cooling 'situ' willl yield a somewhat cooler morning, but we will quickly recover within 1/2 hour after sunrise to what has become standard temperatures lately for the post sunrise hour or two.

TOMORROW: The high pressure will continue its eastward trek and move into the Atlantic. Winds to become easterly by late morning at 5-8 mph under continued mostly clear skies. There is a chance of some patches of stratocumulus clouds along the coast during the late morning to post noon time, but for the most part it should be nearly clear. After a morning low of 56 along the coast and much cooler inland afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low 70s area wide. Folks east of A1A, we're talking the very VERY immediate coast, might again see the temperature drop a notch or two once the easterly component winds ensue and advect air above the very cool ocean waters into that area....generating a temperature of 69 or 70 degrees.

TOMORROW NIGHT-THURSDAY: High pressure to continue into the Atlantic with winds originally easterly becoming SSE to south late in the period. Low Wednesday night around 62 along the coast and in the upper 50s inland. High Thursday in the low 70s along the immediate coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95 and toward the west coast. More assuredly warmer the further south and west one goes, but not significantly so. Skies will have scattered clouds of little impact.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: Our slight warming trend continues as we finally approach what one would consider seasonable norms for the third week in March! For Cocoa Beach that would be a low of 58 degrees and a high of 78. Actually, our lows will be warmer than normal, but our highs will struggle to reach the required magnitude. Sigh. But not so bad.

After this past winter I think I've become a little 'thick skinned' and am willing to tolerate the last vestiges of cool air that Mother Nature can brew up. This, along with knowing that not all too soon dreams of wanting some cool air to move in will be in the making, makes tolerating the below normal highs a little easier to cope with for the time being.

BY FRIDAY, the first of two systems will be moving in. The day will dawn with a low around 66 degrees. Can you believe it?! And a high of 77 along the coast and closer to 80 well away from the coast (west of I-95). Winds will be SW on Friday with initially cloudy conditions due to a sufficient coating of high cirrostratus clouds in preamble to the storm system that will be moving across Dixie. A cold front emanating from this system will move into the area by late afternoon, but most of the energy associated with it will be too far north to have much of an impact other than a pretty decent chance of some rain showers and cloudy skies.

SATURDAY: This will be the most PRIMO day of the week! God grants small favors :-). And he picked the weekend to do so. Hmmm...on second thought...what with all the spring breakers around (say no more if you know what I mean). High in the mid-upper 70s and low in the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. But be forewarned, a more potent system will be lurking just beyond the horizon, and may come in with a good punch by weekend's end!

SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME: Timing on yet the next system is a little sketchy still as of the time of this writing. One model, the GooFuS (GFS) is indicating thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon into the evening, whereas the European Model (ECMWF) is holding off on the front until Monday. Actually, I'm seeing that a nice blend of cookie batter might be the best option. A little GooFuS here...some ECMWF..and a dash of vanilla may yield some nice "Thunderstorm Cookies" for both late Sunday and early Monday. SWEET!! Regardless of the outcome, it will all be over by Tuesday with then ......

TUESDAY ON:.....with then.....a prolonged dry period with temperatures warming to above normal. Only time will tell (we're only talking a day or two)...as to what will occur late in the weekend. But we have plenty of that (time) to batten the hatches.

I'm very intrigued to see what is going to happen, particularly, Sunday afternoon and evening! And after that...will it really be warm 'forever on'?