"Watch This Way" (from the SSW-SW)

(Image: Classic KSC Cape towering shower forms yesterday as sea breeze develops. We've seen them much larger than this one yesterday...but this was a nice reminder that waterspout producing showers can and do form in this area)

 

RECAP: Big rainfall totals yesterday for the West Central Portions of the state with Polk and Hillsborough Counties overall being the leaders of the pack with one isolate Orange County report, with one total over 5" near Tampa. Other high totals came in from Lakeland, Plant City, Winter Haven,  Bartow, Bloomingdale to name just a few. On the east coast we had only light totals with nothing on the intracoastal. Once the day evolved and the sea breeze set up everything generally moved from NE to SW...piling up over Polk County toward Sarasota while skies elsewhere became partly cloudy. Tower clouds went up over the Space Center with a possible funnel sighted there around noon, but the confirmed reports were from near Naples and just off the Keys.

 

SYNOPSIS: Surface trough lies across Southern Ga/Al/Miss. with high pressure ridge as far south as Cuba. Low pressure resides over the Northeast states extending down the East U.S. Coast through South Carolina with an additional reflection into Georgia. Mid-Level low has taken shape well off the coast of Ft Myers. Deep, moisture laden SSW-SW flow from the surface to 700mb is in the process of establishing over all of Central Florida with the outliers being extreme the SE portion and the Panhandle. This pattern will strengthen throughout the next 24-36 hours and become potentially quite interesting Tuesday. The KSC Sounding data is finally available this morning. It shows generally a SSW-SW steering flow with continued warm air aloft with 700mb near +10C and 500mb near -4 or -5 (in other words, no different from what it's been for a LONG time).

 

NOW-MID AFTERNOON: Surface winds over much of Central Florida are generally from the S-SSW. Gradient flow will likely prevent formation of a true ECSB (East Coast Sea Breeze) today from Volusia County south to between West Palm/Jupiter. Line of sustaining showers extends from north to south from north and over Lake Okeechobee...with a cloud line extending from the north end of the this shower line northeastward toward the Cape Canaveral Port Entrance. Light showers are forming as I write along this cloud line as well. Aloft, high level cirrus clouds across the north half of Brevard toward Orlando are being generated from activity off the South Carolina coast which is streaming overhead due to NE jet stream level winds. These high clouds are currently putting the breaks on cumulus development over said region, however more clouds/showers could develop here as well, maybe even before I finish typing this late morning blog entry.

 

The aforementioned shower line morph in size,intensity, and northern extent as it moves toward the NE-NNE during the course of the next 2-3 hours into Osceola, Indian River, and South Brevard Counties. Anyone in this region up to maybe north central Brevard might or might not see some rain before 2pm as a result.  Meanwhile, other showers could form along the cloud line extending toward the Port...with all other areas slowly filling in with showers.  From noon to 3pm more showers/storms will likely fill in across Central Florida making timing for a shower for any one locale impossible to determine. Motion of activity will be from the SW though..so "watch this way". Anvil level winds will continue from the NE so the cirrus from activity will stream back from the direction of motion during the day...but this will be changing as we head toward Wednesday.

 

MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING: Some areas by this time may have received rain more than once today. Showers will move right along so large accumulations not expected. By 2-3pm I'd be watching a lot more for lightning from activity though. A lot of what occurs later today will be contingent of what results with the early afternoon activity. Lots of remnant cloud debris could aid to stabilize the atmosphere...but believe that as the SW flow strengthens, mainly from Oak Hill south toward Vero that we might see a stronger round of storms during this time frame into the evening hours. Also to watch will be the amount of cirrus clouds steaming across the region off the Carolina/Georgia Coasts. These could inhibit late day destabilization. Additionally, without a sea breeze convergence boundary setting up not expecting giant storms...other than a few in isolated pockets...but just where this could occur at this time of day would be like picking B9 out of the bingo ball stir pot on the first try.

 

Further north toward Daytona to Jacksonville. Sea breeze could set up in this region with light gradient mid-level flow overhead. However, this region is closer to the deepening mi-level trough...so activity could be more robust along the coast up that way which is a bit closer to the surface boundary.

 

TOMORROW: More changes at hand. The surface boundary will sink a tad further south to just about the FL/GA border as the mid-level low over the Carolinas deepens and closes off. Gradient mid-level flow over the immediate Central Florida region will strengthen to 25-35mph just over head with ample moisture. Due to deepening of the mid-level trough temperatures aloft might decrease a degree or two...but nothing overly significant is anticipated aloft over Central Florida...north Florida folks will need to be watching this though, as storms up that way could be quite strong as a result from Flagler County toward Jacksonville and inland toward Gainesville and perhaps with Ocala being on the southern fringe of these affects.

 

Otherwise, synoptically speaking...winds the whole way up to jet stream level (25K-30K feet) will change to a westerly direction along with the maintained SW-WSW mid level flow direction. As a result, storms will move even more quickly tomorrow with no sea breeze most assuredly. Temperatures aloft will maybe a degree or two cooler...and pockets of mid-upper level vorticity will be passing over the region. Thus, I maintain a high level of chances for convection on Tuesday..particularly from near Ft. Pierce and points north to Jacksonville along the East Coast...and from Ft. Myers and points north on the West Coast..then everywhere in between. We'll see how things develop during the course of tonight for yet another post tomorrow. One thing to watch though for now, now that I think about it, is that any robust storms tomorrow could have strong winds associated with them due to the stronger mid-level winds.

 

WEDNESDAY: A little bit like today all over again as mid -upper flow weakens to some degree. Ample moisture once again abounds. Whether or not a sea breeze will develop on Wednesday is tricky. One might develop late in the afternoon as mid level gradient flow will be weakening during the day. Otherwise, still looks like there will be storms in the same place as Tuesday.

 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Continued weakening of mid-upper level flow with a gradual 'normal' sea breeze / outflow boundary collision pattern re-establishing. Not so sure about the A1A corridor though as far as rain chances go..but as we work more toward the weekend coastal storms look less likely.

 

SUNDAY: We'll see. The last GFS run I saw is sticking with the deep Easterly flow pattern setting up as alluded to yesterday..but for some reason it has the Cape in a precipitation bulls-eye..which sure isn't dry like it seemed it would be yesterday. It's only Monday now though...so we'll see.

 

TROPICS: Danielle will probably be a hurricane by noon tomorrow....fishing out in the Atlantic. On a side note, the GFS last night was showing a storm/hurricane to form off the N. tip of the Yucatan and brought it  to North Central Florida by September 4th. Not showing anything remotely close to that now though..just thought I'd throw that out there.

Boundary/Sea Breeze Front Collision Convection Day In Store

Image: Looking west across the Banana River toward US1 at storms that lined up along the US1-I95 Corridor yesterday. This image shows the outflow developed gust front that moved across the A1A corridor associated with those storms to the west. Also of note, anvil level winds steering storm tops away from the coast, keeping the sky blue until the storm is nearly right on top of any affected area.

 

RECAP: After posting yesterday morning it became apparent that East Central Florida had drawn the Tarot Card with an umbrella on it from the deck. It was mentioned that early morning convection was on going over West Central Florida to near the Lake County Area. The convection never made it further east as was suspected and in fact these storms eventually collapsed and scoured out much of West Central Florida; however, once we had some daytime heating and a cumulus cloud field formed it was easily apparent through watching the visible satellite imagery animation that a great outflow boundary from that collapsed convection was spreading rapidly ESE across the peninsula. As it progressed across the state the east coast was sitting pretty with the normal noon time sea breeze beginning to slowly develop. Some good cloud lines initially developed over the Space Center south over Cape Canaveral but nothing came out of this activity. Once the sea breeze developed in earnest which was by 1pm these clouds dissipated and further development along its leading edge to the west. Steering currents were weakly from the north yesterday...so the sea breeze took its time working west across the rivers and made it about as far west as somewhere between US1 or I-95. Meanwhile, the aforementioned outflow continued through the Orlando area and met the sea breeze right along that corridor. As such, storms rapidly developed in a North/South line the entire length of Brevard County beginning around 1:30pm dumping over 2" of rain over many areas. With the steering currents nearly paralleling the coast this activity was hard pressed to cross the waterways in earnest. As a result, rainfall totals were significantly lower out on the barrier islands, although the entire spectacle was fun to watch out there at a 'safe' distance from the lightning (see image included in this post).

 

SYNOPSIS:  As of 9am it appears that East Central Florida is in somewhat of a mid level COL with low pressure over the mid-Atlantic to the NE states and well to the south of the state. At the same time high pressure is well off the east coast with another area extending into the Gulf from a core right over the Central U.S. states.  The Central and Southern Peninsula in general are not being directly affected by any of these features this morning. As such, surface winds are land breeze generated and winds aloft are all less than 10 kts, but generally from the north. The area most in this indefinable wind field predicament appears to be, of all places, Brevard and Indian River Counties. I haven't been able to obtain a sounding from KSC for two days now, at least not before making a blog post. Yesterday's finally came out well after the post, but even so probably would have been of little use considering the circumstances that developed. Given water vapor imagery though and current forecast trends, see no reason that there is not abundant atmospheric moisture to work with again today coupled with the standard warmer than normal mid-upper level temperatures.

 

NEAR TERM SYNOPTIC FORECAST:  Based on model trends/forecasts for the past 2 days and continuity believe that much of the peninsula will eventually be under a very broad mid-level area of low pressure at the base of the trough now running down the U.S. eastern seaboard through the NE and mid-Atlantic states by day's end during the course of the day. As such, a trough axis will eventually develop which at this time appears will be running from near Daytona Beach SW to just south of Sarasota by mid-day Monday...after which a very discernible steering flow will be established.  Steering currents today will remain very very weak to non-existent in the meantime, with a NE wind at the upper most limit aloft of the steering current level. Anvil level winds will remain from the NE as they have for days. But until then...

 

TODAY: With the scenario painted out 'as such' above, the local forecast for much of East Central Florida and much of South Florida is quite the quandary at this time of day with no synoptic scale features at hand to work with. Will the same thing happen today as yesterday?  Highly unlikely. There was a lot of storm activity along the west coast this morning over Tampa and points south like yesterday, but this activity is moving generally toward the SSW (off their coast over there) and has pretty much all but ended now for that entire region. More will be revealed once cumulus clouds start to form in earnest, but that is still another hour from now. As such:

 

Expect east coast sea breeze to once again form on queue between 12:00-1:00pm. It should be slow to migrate west once again with no help from upper level winds to either enhance it nor pin it on the coast either.  With ample moisture around...and perhaps even more at the low levels once the sun gets beating under nearly clear skies due to transevaporation/transpiration from already rain soaked grounds...the cumulus field will start to develop most noticeably after the thin land strips of the Space Center, near larger inland lakes, and along the shores of the intracoastal as early as 10am. As these clouds gain a little substance and merge rain showers will eventually form just about anywhere with very little motion. Clouds will grow most formidably along the developing, light sea breeze and move very little. It will be interesting to see what the west coast sea breeze does today, especially after all the rain shower activity they've had over there this morning...so we'll have to be watching that.

 

Wherever, showers and perhaps some lightning develops during the 10am-3pm time frame..they should remain fairly isolated without broad 'expansial' coverage. With additional heating of the day the atmosphere over the peninsula will become increasingly unstable and rising thermals will give way to further cumulus cloud development over the entire peninsula except behind the sea breeze. I'm going to watching the KSC toward the port though. With almost no winds aloft and rapid rising thermals...who knows.

 

Once we reach the mid-late afternoon just about anywhere could get a storm as boundary collisions occur from collapsing earlier activity and peak instability is reached. Toward evening, as the mid-level trough axis becomes established a bit of a push toward the east will be develop mainly south of Daytona Beach-Miami.

 

ENOUGH FOR TODAY: In short, Monday-Tuesday look to be days with enhanced flow from the SSW-SW with showers/storms most likely in the afternoons/evenings on the east side of the state south of Flagler and perhaps most of Volusia Counties...as well as early morning activity around Tampa Bay.

 

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Transitioning back to more of normal wind field pattern as mid-level gradient flow relaxes.

 

BEYOND: Thunderstorm shut down. Dryer, stacked easterly flow becomes established as high pressure builds eastward from the Central U.S. states over the mid-Atlantic region and off shore that region.

Showers/Storms Unlikely East of US1/I-95 for Central Florida Today

(Image: A weak outflow boundary approaches Cape Canaveral late yesterday from a storm that was nearly 30 miles away and collapsed. This is the affect that occurs when winds just above the sea breeze boundary are from the west..but just above that level they were keeping storms well inland (from the north)

Leaving this one brief, as there is a very large disparity between my line of thinking and what I'm reading/seeing through media/internet outlets.

 

TODAY:  First off, sure hope I'm wrong about all this (below). We need some storms along the immediate coast. But...

 

To be brief, think the chance of coastal rains from Ft. Pierce to Daytona look pretty darned meager today. Showers and storms are approaching N. Lake County at time but having an impossible time penetrating further east than where they've reached the past 2 hours. Model guidance and latest MAPS forecast sounding data indicate continued warm air aloft today...and getting warmer aloft as the day goes by as steering winds veer more northerly to even the NNE by late. Thus, believe most activity that goes up along any sea breeze collision which will go up west of I-95 will be pushed S-SW and away from the coast during the early evening hours toward The Big Lake and along the west coast from Tampa-Ft. Myers.

 

Outside of sea breeze activity, other showers could go up near the Orlando area - Volusia County before noon due to outflow from early convection to the northwest of there..this activity could push SE-ESE initially while it remains low-topped..any robust activity though that could generate lightning will likely start to drop due southward.

 

Late morning activity still has a chance of forming along the east shores of Lake O near I-95/US1 though in Palm Beach-Dade County...but that should be few and far between. Further north in Central Florida...any rains in this region would have to occur between 11:30am-2pm right before and as the sea-breeze develops. Should be scoured out though by 2:30pm if there is any at all for that matter. Also, by this time high level clouds could have impinged from storms that have generated way out over the Atlantic this morning. Actually, the more I look at it even late afternoon/evening activity chances do not look too great any where. Surely someone will get the boot, but don't think it's going to be anywhere in Brevard/Volusia/or Indian River Counties.

 

SUNDAY: For now, looking at slightly better rain prospects..but not by much.

 

LATE SUNDAY- TUESDAY: For now seems to be the best chance of rain/storms for the East Half of the entire state. Models are STILL having a hard time coming to anything close to agreement...but they are getting there.

 

LATE WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: So far...looks like all convection will be west of an Orlando - Lake Okeechobee Line as high pressure builds across the mid-Atlantic Region. Will watch for the possibility of nocturnal shower activity to begin for the immediate A1A corridor areas along all of the Florida East Coast as this time frame approaches.

 

TROPICS?:  Still not much going on.

VERY Sketchy Wx Forecast

(Image: Radar around 10:30pm shows that the Barrier Islands and the A1A corridor of E. Florida were the sole heirs to the Storm God Throne for the state last night)

 

RECAP: Yesterday evolved pretty much as expected. There was indeed no activity along the eastern sea breeze front as it moved slowly inland and away from the coast. West met East around 7-8pm and the storms went up over Volusia, Seminole, Osceola, and southwest into Polk County. From the beaches, the line of storms was very easily discernible along the WSW-NW horizon as appearing like a tidal wave lit up by lightning strikes while clear skies prevailed overhead in the after glow of the setting sun behind the storms to the west. The mid level westerly push of winds aloft eased the activity toward the coast. The storms right along the barrier islands was actually induced more by outflow from the original storms rather than those storms themselves which suffered a rapid demise around 9pm.  The outflow boundary, delineated by a cool looking gust front, was visible here even though it was totally dark out due to the glow from lighting around the Port and a near by softball field, both of which gave it a peach/pink hue. The biggest show of the evening was actually along central portions of the Osceola/Polk County line, whereas additional storms redeveloped from the outflow from Titusville south right down the intracoastal waterway to nearly Indialantic Beach. South of Titusville the heaviest rainfalls were actually east of the Indian River from the Port Entrance toward Satellite Beach down the A1A Corridor (as depicted by the included radar image from around 10:30pm last night). At my place we received just over 1.5" of rain...but somewhere near PAFB might have received even more. Another report from Titusville came in with almost 1.96 inches. Pretty much all of the south half of Brevard County as well as almost all of the South Half of Florida remained virtually rain free during the course of the mid-late evening last night.

 

SYNOPSIS: Broad region of high pressure extends across the entire southern half of the state, with the axis appearing at this time to be just north of a Miami-Naples line way down there. Broad area of weak low pressure, in coincidence of the remnant mid-level circulation from TD5 meanders somewhere near the Alabama-Georgia line west of Atlanta or near Rome, GA. Continuing to watch this area as it might influence our weather locally in 2-3 days. Otherwise, little to speak of. Upper level temps remain on the warm side with PWATs over or near 2" inches (ample moisture for storm generation).

 

TODAY: Similar to yesterday for starters. Again expecting very little to zero rain showers through at least 2pm for most of Central Florida other than activity that might go up in North Central Sections toward Gainesville and Ocala (and Lake County) or much further west along the developing West Coast sea breeze.  Two days ago steering flow started to come from the SSW after dark, then by yesterday and last night it was primarily from the W with WNW tendencies, and today it appears as though it will start out from the WNW and veer even more around the clock to being from the NW-NNW by or shortly after sunset. High pressure over South Florida will be retrograding westward into the GOM during the course of the day while another center remains well to the east and just north of the Bahamas in the Atlantic. The retrograding high pressure center will be the cause of some veering of the mid-level winds during the day. Otherwise, temperatures running right where they have been...in other words just at or slightly above normal, particularly along and west of I-95.

 

Expect another collision of sea breezes within an hour of sunset perhaps a little further to the east than from yesterday from western portions of Flagler, Volusia Counties backing more toward the SSW as one heads through Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and "O" County due to the greater inland push of the East Coast sea breeze inland the further south one gets. 

 

AFTER SUNSET: Things get tricky from here on out for several days. Rather than spell out a variety of scenarios that COULD occur we'll leave this short and stay primarily in the present.  To cut to the chase, not so sure that showers/storms will make there presence known along the A1A corridor south of the Cape tonight. If winds aloft veer too much toward the NNW outflows combined with the sea breeze boundary would cause further storm generation to remain along or west of I-95 as one works into Brevard and all points south toward Lake "O".   Models are mixed on this scenario evolving though this evening, so my initial inclination is to ride with persistence which would mean that the same areas that received rainfall last night late could again receive rain tonight. Just remember though, last night was pretty darned fluky...and one would think that a repeat performance would be unlikely...but stranger things have happened. In many years of 'weather watching' along the Brevard Coast...it seems to be that many times the summer weather pattern here often occurs in groupings of 'two'. We may have about worked our way through this grouping though...as essentially we've already had two evenings of post sunset rainfall.

 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND: Honestly, my arms are up in the air. The NAM is not only continuing to be the odd ball out with developing a mid-upper level low near the Northern Bahamas, but now it's even more adamant about it than yesterday's run. If it verifies...much of eastern coastal Florida could be close to a zero rain chance for maybe 2 days. Beyond that it just gets plain bizarre with a reversal to a very wet pattern for much of eastern and southern parts of the state as we head into Monday. On the other hand, the GFS is running status quo with its line of 'thinking'.  I think what eventually will evolve is something between the two solutions which would give us another day of a chance of storms (i.e., Saturday in particular). By this time tomorrow we'll start to have a much better handle on the situation for the near future...errr..perhaps?  To plainly put, anyone who has outdoor activities planned for Saturday through Monday should simply check in with your preferred form of resources to 'get the latest and greatest'. 

 

TROPICS: Developments in the far eastern Atlantic still anticipated per models and climatologically speaking, but as of now there is only some disturbances out there. By this time next week we could be talking about two named systems...neither of which will be threatening the U.S. East Coast or the Gulf (yet). 

 

Also, still watching the mid-level remnant TD 5 circulation referred to above. This circulation still appears as though it will generate along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle in the course of the next 48 hours. Just where this occurs and how strong it becomes will be yet another card in the mischievous deck of forecasting tarot cards we will be dealt ...another reason why a forecast beyond Saturday, is in my opinion...merely a flip of the coin at this time today. 

Instant Replay of Yesterday?

RECAP: Activity generated yesterday very nicely (forecast wise) as far as locales and timing goes, but coverage was pretty low until very late. Things came together an hour or two later though than when I thought it would along the east side of the state for Osceola, Okeechobee, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard Counties. Included is a radar image from around 10pm that roughly shows the areas that received a shower or thunderstorm and in some cases two shots of them between 9pm-midnight. Extreme E Osceola County, SE Orange, and N. Brevard seemed to be the most affected while I was still awake and monitoring. The only shower that I saw while awake that clearly moved off shore with any punch was near Daytona Beach, but from the beach lightning was easily visible from the storms that lined up along the east side of Osceola County northward along the Brevard/Orange Counties line. The Titusville, Port St. John, and Mims area got the rains very nicely too.   The late evening activity north of the Big Lake might have been aided by a very strong Lake Breeze that pushed NNE into at least southern Osceola County, which was likely aided by the mid level winds from the SSW which developed during the same time frame. This was easily discernible on visible satellite imagery late yesterday afternoon. The immediate coast could have received measurable rainfall amounts earlier had this occurred earlier in the day before the sea breeze had been so established, but such was not the case.

 

TODAY: Much like yesterday, but believe coverage might be less at least until very late. After that time...who knows to be honest. A lot will depend on what happens in the late afternoon inland as far as eastern portions are concerned (Eastern portions being the east halves of Okeechobee/Osceola/Orange/Seminole/Volusia/ and all of Brevard and Indian River Counties). The NWS Southern Regional Headquarters web server has been down since late yesterday, therefore I have not been able to access any data on line that resides via their server.

 

But the latest RUC/NAM and water vapor loop tell the tale pretty good. Looks a little drier out there aloft to start the day from yesterday, but then again it dried out a little yesterday afternoon and still storms popped after dark regardless. The Tampa sounding as of 8AM appears representative of the latest RUC run though, so we'll run with those. About the only difference today from yesterday is that SW-W winds in the lower-mid levels are already prevailing to start the day, whereas yesterday it took a good part of the afternoon for that direction to be established. Remember, yesterday these winds were paralleling the intracoastal at this time yesterday - not today though.

 

Sea breeze initiation will again be first to appear from south of Ft. Pierce and along the Cocoa Beach-Cape Canaveral coastline with all areas receiving hints of its onset by 1-1:30pm at latest.  Full sea breeze up down the Florida East Coast by 2pm.  The further south one goes the further inland the sea breeze will impinge upon. The further north one goes of the Cape the later it will develop. It doesn't appear the west coast sea breeze has yet begun as of this late morning writing...but my guess is that it will initiate very shortly as will the Lake O breeze machine. Activity along the east side of Lake O will have to get an early start today with the more westerly component to the winds aloft at this hour. If it doesn't happen by 1pm that area could be scoured out completely, but worth watching.  Actually, North of Vero along the intracoastal I'm highly doubtful of noon-2pm intracoastal waterway shower initiation today due to continued warm air aloft. About the only thing that might instigate a cloud line or perhaps a shower would be a remnant outflow boundary laying dormant over the barrier island region. But any develop here would be low end, uneventful. We pretty much knew right away once clouds started to form before noon yesterday that there would be no intracoastal activity early in the day. All one had to do was look at the clouds. The cumulus were very scrappy in nature and had little depth..and by the time any truly noticeable coverage could be obtained they were well west of the Indian River. I see a few scrappy Cu out my window overhead as I type...this happened yesterday. The sea breeze will follow soon.

 

With all said and done, warm and very muggy along the coast early before sea breeze initiation, but continued uncomfortable inland all day until more clouds and showers eventually develop. Once again expecting mostly late day storm initiation for Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and perhaps extreme western Brevard Counties. But not to discount that renegade shower or storm near the larger lakes just about anywhere. Storms also likely to go up along the west coast sea breeze over Lake County.  Activity this evening could make a better eastward penetration directly to the coast, from Vero Beach and points north, most likely though north of Cocoa Beach to Ormond Beach. As such, I'm looking toward the WSW-W horizon, especially toward the sunset time frame for showers or storms. Some mid-level clouds could make it to the coast anytime later this afternoon as remnant storm debris from activity that goes up over Central Portions of the inland counties drifts overhead.  Eventually, activity could again impinge toward the intracoastal as outflow boundaries from inland activity interacts with the shallow sea breeze frontal boundary which will weaken as we work later into the evening (due to loss of post-daytime max heating).  Overall coverage for Central Florida from coast to coast should be lower than what would normally expect this time of year.

 

One point to make. When it rains where you are it seems like it's raining 'everywhere' doesn't it? Rest assured, you could probably hop in your car and drive for ten minutes and be out of it.

 

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY: What a quandary. The latest NAM is painting a significantly different picture from the GFS for this time frame. Particularly beginning Saturday. The past two runs have insisted on developing a fairly deep inverted trough and at times a closed low over/near the Bahamas and gradually shifting that feature west toward the peninsula, whereas the GFS maintains a ridge axis across south/central Florida (essentially the same pattern we've been in the past two days).  For now, I'm tossing the NAM out and riding with persistence which is what the GFS is hedging on. That being, little change overall from what we've been experiencing. Things change on a daily basis though, so we'll have to monitor to see if the 'hoped for' increase in rain chances for the east side of the state (namely, the A1A corridor) will improve notably by Saturday or Sunday as was alluded to yesterday.  We'll also watch to see if the NAM verifies. If it does, than our rain chances will decrease for the east side of the state considerably until maybe late Sunday or Monday.

 

EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK: Eventually, a frontal boundary and associated upper level trough will evolve along and east of the Mississippi River by Monday....and then work east and a bit further south. So far, it appears the surface  front will go stationary and get stretched in more of a NE-SW-W fashion across the mid-Atlantic region into north portions of Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi. Meanwhile, remnant TD5 aloft will barely be a discernible entity (if in fact, it is even viable to relate to that feature anymore).  But the GFS does indeed maintain redevelopment very close to the region that it made it on to the northern Gulf of Mexico Coastline along and just south of the frontal boundary by early next week. I'd say there's going to be lots to monitor over the Southeast states in coming days...but so far none of it appears as if it would have much of an impact on South and Central Florida. Closer proximity of the frontal boundary though should increase atmospheric moisture levels, abet in dipping the mid-upper level temperatures a bit (thus enhance instability) as well as enhance a greater push of storm activity toward the A1A corridor along the entire Florida East Coast during this time frame.

 

TROPICS: Nothing of interest yet. The "Models" (beginning to hate "that" word) are flakey at best, and all talk is strictly speculation. Surely someone is out there trying to get the 'one-upmanship' by forecasting what will happen 10 days from now so they can eventually proclaim "See, I told you that would happen!". So far, all speculators out there that I've seen have been incorrect anyway. It is totally unconstructive  and misleading to further exasperate what for now is a moot issue anyway.

 

HOWEVER! If one is to prepare for a tropical onslaught, now is the time. I noticed that Publix Supermarkets (a little plug for them) this week are putting special prices on weather radios, batteries, some canned goods like veggies and tuna, can openers, bottled water, and peanut butter. So if one wants to be prepared without the hassle of last minute preparation and fighting the hordes of scavengers as the store shelves empty, parking lots traffic jam, and irritable individuals mumbling 'rude utterances' (to put it nicely) under their breath in long waiting lines...now might be a good time to stock up. 

Will Remnant TD5 Make a THIRD Visit to the Northern Gulf?!

RECAP OF YESTERDAY: Sea breeze generated rain showers and a few light thunderstorms (thundershowers?) were able to pop yesterday from around noon time through 2-3pm between US-1 and I-95 from North Brevard and points south. This activity was fairly isolated in nature and came to an abrupt end by 3:30pm as the east coast sea breeze worked further west toward the greater inland portion of the state. A diffuse, early evening west meets east collision occurred west of Orlando as anticipated with Lake County seemingly receiving the brunt of the rainfall when all is said and done. Moisture and a slightly veering wind profile at the mid-levels returned as anticipated in the post yesterday, but it was a dime late and a dollar short for areas on the east side of the peninsula to receive late afternoon activity, which was also expected, although there was less activity overall than was thought to occur. Today looks different though, and thus another morning of blogging is now at hand.

 

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK: See the end of this post.

 

SYNOPSIS: Not much of interest across the SE U.S. Remnant TD5  circulation center appears to be over NE portions of Louisiana at time and barely moving if at all. Surface and mid-level ridge axis of high pressure located over the southern third of the state of Florida. As such, a land breeze has developed along the Florida East Coast right at around sunrise. Mid-level flow at time seems to have backed at bit toward being from more of straight from the SSE-S rather than the SSW, but believe this is only temporary. Mid-level temperatures remain atypically warmer than what one should expect to exist for such a long period of time during the course of the summer, thus, thunderstorm coverage and intensity will again be downplayed.

 

TODAY: Virtually every model generated late last night through very early this morning is painting the same general picture.  The 850-700mb winds again appear as though the will veer toward the S-SW during the mid-late afternoon hours, with the GFS being the odd ball out and actually taking them the whole way around to being from the west.  I haven't seen the KSC sounding because unfortunately it's not available on the internet at this time, but other discussions, later water vapor loop, and early evening data indicate that atmospheric moisture in the mid-upper levels is in no way of short supply.

 

(EARLY TODAY):The east coast sea breeze will develop at what is now apparent to be a typical time frame, from 11:30am - 1pm. It will form earliest from near Vero and points south as well as right along the A1A corridor from near Patrick Air Force Base to the Cape.  With steering currents as they currently stand we could get some decent cloud lines of convective nature to form parallel to and over or along the intracoastal waterways between 11:30am -1pm which could grow into showers or even a low end thunderstorm (thundershower?) as the clouds lines organize into convective clusters. The greatest likely region as of this time that this seems will occur will be the same areas as yesterday. However, with the mid-level winds already in place (and less from an easterly component), they could form a little closer to the coast today than they did yesterday, which was mostly along I-95 or barely east of there in some locales. Some of this activity could actually penetrate the A1A corridor anywhere in Brevard (and perhaps Indian River County)...and all points north. Further south, where the sea breeze will have been established earlier in the day, storms should have a hard time making it east of I-95 except for maybe around West Palm Beach where a Lake/Sea breeze interaction could induce a storm or to very close to I-95 or even near US-1. One other scenario to watch for today is for storms to go up before noon further south along the earlier forming sea breeze front with subsequent firing of additional activity northward up I-95 to US-1 as we work into the early-mid afternoon time frame. Either way, the same areas will be affected by this pre-mid afternoon thunderstorm activity inherent to Florida summer weather.

 

(LATER TODAY): The sea breeze will have become established fully by 3:00pm and have begun its westward trek, however, it doesn't appear that it will make it much further west than the North Shores of Lake Okeechobee northward to thru Orlando and into Central portions of Seminole/Volusia Counties. The west coast sea breeze will also be making inland progression during this time frame. It again appears that a  diffuse  (less deliberate) collision of these two boundaries will not occur until around (or after) 6pm along or just maybe east of this aforementioned North/South line. The most likely area that it could actually occur more toward the east would be from a Kennedy Space Center toward Seminole County line. Storms/or perhaps storms debris could reach the immediate coast south of this line from near Indian Harbor Beach and points north, but of little to no consequence. The most likely region along the east coast to see a second round of storms as we work into the early-mid evening hours will be over the Kennedy Space Center, North Merritt Island, Titusville, Mims, Port St. John, Oak Hill ...and points north along US1 and AIA toward Daytona Beach Shores. Meanwhile, further inland much of Orange, Seminole, Volusia, Flagler...as well as further south over Central and Western Osceola and Okeechobee Counties will be prospects for storms. Most of the storms will be very slow moving...with apparent motion actually being induced by boundary interactions and propagation ...but in general storms will drift toward the North.

 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: At time, it appears the low and mid level ridge axis currently near Lake Okeechobee will drift north to Central Florida. This would place inland portions to continue to be the favored area for late afternoon sea breeze collisions with some activity going up along or over the intracoastal water ways round noon time (give or take an hour either way)...but primarily avoiding the coast. The outlier area being the Space Center toward Mims and Titusville where the more eastward extension of land area gives them an added benefit of being 'further inland' than the region from Port Canaveral and south. Who knows, there could actually be a set up for a funnel cloud near the Space Center in this time frame.

 

SATURDAY-THIS TIME NEXT WEEK: By Saturday, the mid-surface level ridge axis will sink back south in response to a continental frontal boundary approaching  the Mississippi River Valley. It's hard to believe, but at this time remnant TD5 might still be barely hanging on at the mid-levels in this same region. In fact, and as strictly joked about the other day, it could once again end up being either displaced or redevelop further south along the Northern Gulf Coast somewhere just off the coast anywhere from Apalachicola toward Mobile. Although tropical development of this system is highly unlikely, this scenario could paint a continued wet pattern over already soaked areas from 2 previous visits from this same system. Just something to watch. Meanwhile, by this time next week we could be watching 1 or maybe even 2 tropical systems well off to the east in the Atlantic. In fact, by this time next week we could have our next named system...with another one about to be named on its heels.

 

Locally: The surface front approaching the Deep South, in conjunction with some mid-upper level troughiness, will be accompanied by lower thickness values in the 1000-500mb layer. This translates essentially to cooler temperatures aloft. As such, the period from Sunday or Monday through Wednesday could be characterized by stronger thunderstorms, greater coverage, and favoring the east side of the state. This will bear monitoring, since that would mean we might actually see some REAL THUNDERSTORMS  along the A1A corridor for the first time since official summer began this year.

Low Rain Chances Central Portions Until Late Afternoon

RECAP: Pretty quiet day overall yesterday other than near Titusville, the Orlando area, and into Osceola County. There was an unofficial rain report of over 3" inches around Longwood but that seemed to be the highlight of activity.

 

NOW/SYNOPSIS: Low pressure near extreme S. Louisiana (remnant TD5) now over land and no longer a tropical weather threat other than enhanced afternoon thunderstorm activity for Southern and Central portions of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi due to increased moisture and some veering of low level winds. Another very weak area of lower-mid level low pressure resides over the Western Bahamas and into South Florida. These two low pressure areas seemed to be weakly 'joined at the hip' across Central Florida and as a result surface and mid-level winds are very light. The morning KSC sounding taken at 6am is likely unrepresented for the most part of the air mass that will be over Central Florida late this afternoon into the evening hours and was disregarded for the most part. Water vapor loop showed a good slug of dry mid-upper level air has rotated into and across the region since day break. The seeming mid-level boundary across South Florida seems to be working slowly north though...and more moisture in the mid-levels should be returning to Central portions by 3-4pm  from the SSE-South. Additionally the low-mid level wind component which is now from the SSE-SE should veer ever so slightly to being from the S-SSW around sunset as the deeper moisture moves back in with this boundary with surface winds remaining generally from the SE-SSE.

 

TODAY: As a result (of the above stated) probably mostly dry most regions north of Vero for the early afternoon other than few renegade showers along the sea-breeze boundary north of Vero. Further south toward West Palm-Miami-Lake Okeechobee storms shouldn't have as much of a problem with getting started. In fact, the latest visible satellite animation I looked at indicated that showers and storms might already be beginning along the east coast down that way in the region closer to the mid-level boundary and thus greater moisture.

 

As we work into the mid-late afternoon mid-level winds to veer to S-SSW with an increase in moisture. By this time both the east and west coast sea breezes will have worked away from both coasts. Just exactly where they will meet is hard to say at this point...but as far as Central Florida is concerned any where along the west half of Osceola and Orange..and all of Lake County would be good bets for initial thunderstorm development sometime after 4:00pm. I am looking at the possibility of some early-mid evening activity beginning to flare up further east toward I-95 as outflow from storms further west coincides with the veering mid-level winds and increased moisture (although those will be very light and of not much influence).  Thus, we could end the day at sunset or shortly there after along the coast with some mid-level clouds and possibly remnant storm debris cloudiness (and a sprinkle)...particularly north of around Indian Harbor Beach along the coast.  As of the time of this writing, the best chance of 'near the coast'' activity for Central Florida appears most likely to be near Mims up toward Oakhill, through Daytona into Flagler County.

 

All in all, we could very well end the day much differently than from how it looks out there right now at noon. The big problem precluding development of greater storm coverage and intensity is persistent warm temperature ridging aloft which impedes the formation of stronger updrafts.

 

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Remnant TD 5 and any barely existing mid-level troughing from the Bahamas and South Florida will likely be displaced by ridging to build in from the Atlantic and across these same regions. Mid-level flow along Central and North portions of Florida will remain light but general be from the SW-W and eventually NW as we head into Friday. However, it's unlikely this will dominant the overall steering flow or direction of storm motion. Looking for a greater likelihood of late morning activity to develop along the intercostals waterways up and down the entire coast line though with ample moisture once again (other than how it is as of mid-morning today)...with light west winds in the mid-levels and little if any sea-breeze in the early morning, activity could get juiced up..particularly Wednesday and Thursday shortly before noon time. Once the sea breeze sets up most activity will probably be limited to the I-95 corridor as far as the Eastern portion of the state south of Daytona Beach is concerned. We'll have to see how things develop during the course of the next 24 hours.  Likewise, with a slightly later sea-breeze development the coast will warm into the low-mid 90s temperature wise before falling back to the 88-90 degree range east of US1 by mid-late afternoon. Inland portions outside of showers and storms will remain in the 90s.

Possible Early-Mid Evening Storms For East Thru Southeast Florida

RECAP: No doubt about it, we got hot yesterday right along the coast before the sea breeze began around 1pm. The porch got up to 95F for a brief time. Most activity yesterday during day light hours was very widely scattered. It wasn't until after 6pm that the atmosphere seemed to get its act together for a mid-late evening show from Southern Volusia, various select parts of all of Brevard, and Osceola County down to near Rte 60. As anticipated the steering flow shifted to being from more of a NNW direction after sunset, as such some of the storms paralleled right down the A1A corridor from Cocoa Beach south and further inland over much of the south half of Brevard. The strongest storms were found over SE portions of Osceola County with other storm over extreme Southern Volusia and North Brevard. Wish this had all happened during daylight hours as a beautiful gust front was visible approaching from the north in Cape Canaveral during lightning flashes as a decaying area of storms descended south from Volusia and over the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge between 9:40-10:30pm. Would have made for a nice photograph. Included in this post is the radar image showing the dying storm just of where it reads "NASA". Shortly after this image was saved the storm had gone all green and lightning quickly abated in full.

 

TODAY: In sort of a quandary this morning since the 6AM KSC sounding came in suspiciously on the dry side with a PWAT of only 1.60" where as Tampa is over 2.22". Other little problems exist for much of East Florida from Daytona to Miami as well. The steering flow remains from the W-NW but is very light ...generally 10kts or less which would be much less likely to inhibit greater inland progression of the east coast sea breeze by mid afternoon. Additionally, an elongated cluster of showers and thunderstorms roughly over the Gulf Stream region in the Atlantic well off shore is spreading patches of high level cirrus over the coastal communities due to easterlies up at the jet stream level of the atmosphere. However, these clouds seem to be thinning with every passing hour since early morning over the Central and Northern portions, but appear to soon be on the increase further south especially from Ft Pierce on down the line. This could put a damper on late day thunderstorm activity around Lake Okeechobee under what would otherwise be the most likely region to see storms today. Perplexing. The NWS offices for this portion of the state are officially calling for a pretty good coverage of lightning storms later today down there with the possibility of waterspouts over the Big Lake or the intracoastal, but I'm not totally sold on that notion at this point. If I lived down there I'd be monitoring the sky for increasing high level cloudiness...the more of that there is the lesser the chances of storms...at least until early evening. Additionally, mid-upper level temperatures remain on the warm side which would result in later shower/storm initiation for the most part as well as preclude activity from being overly strong. But not to minimize, ANY lightning is dangerous lightning...and some of those storms last night were pretty active with it but not excessively so. Remember, it does not have to be raining at all to get a lightning strike right near by! It happens all the time.

 

Closer to more central portions of the state, the east coast sea breeze should start no later than 1pm (if it hasn't already while I'm typing this) ...I also am pondering the possibility that it will be somewhat more enhanced once it gets going (by 2:30-3:00pm) than one would normally assume due to out flow from collapsing storms that have been ongoing near the Gulf Stream region since very early this morning. Which reminds me...that region out there will need to be monitored CLOSELY during the next 24 hours for signs of a mid-level if not surface level low development (weak in nature)...which could eventually move in on the Florida East Coast.  This is near the same region that the old mid-level (and once surface frontal boundary) was residing just to the north of here yesterday. Otherwise, a diffuse west coast sea breeze seems to just now developing which will move inland during the course of the afternoon.  Very little activity (even less than yesterday at this time) is occurring over portions of North Central Florida.

 

Do not believe we will see any showers or storms along the developing East Coast sea breeze during the early afternoon hours other than a few sparse showers from Jupiter Inlet and points south along and west of I-95.  Given that the deep cirrus deck has not yet moved in on the peninsula down that way, the other wild card in the deck is for the possibility of Lake/Atlantic Breeze boundary collision to occur anywhere along east sided shores of the lake before 3pm. Other than that....

 

Later today and tonight. Believe that overall shower/storm coverage over the peninsula will be on the 'lowish' side, at least initially until the 4-5pm time frame at least. After max heating and thus peak atmospheric instability has been reached storms could begin to form in earnest along either the west or east coast sea breeze boundaries. Much of things again will be contingent upon whether that high cirrus deck of clouds penetrates in on St. Lucie County and further north as well during the course of the mid-afternoon.  Believe when push comes to shove that the east side of the state will eventually be the favored area for development anywhere from Jacksonville to Miami...could very well end up seeing a repeat of last nights show.  Granted, that's a tough pill to swallow so mostly just throwing that one out as a possibility and not an apparent likelihood.  Also note that I wrote this would be "the most favored area"...that's if and only if the cirrus doesn't move in and/or the east coast sea breeze doesn't suddenly start to make a bee line to the west during the mid-late afternoon.

 

TROPICAL TYPE WEATHER?: There's been a lot of conjecture about what good old TD5 is going to do in the next few days. Right now it remains a remnant low which now appears to be centered close to the Alabama-Georgia Border in the southern portion of those states, however latest radar loops and surface observations indicate that it may relocate to somewhere WNW of Panama City on the Florida Panhandle. There has been much talk in the weather world about this system regaining depression and maybe tropical storm status. At this point, I'm thinking it just MIGHT become a depression once again if it can sustain enough (if any) time and distance over the Gulf waters and away from the coast.  I'm thinking that this will not be the case..but the mid-level low associated with this system could actually get its act together good enough to provide the Gulf Coast region from the Florida Panhandle-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana with some serious rainfall totals when all is said and done. There could be a return visit for the Louisiana Big Toe area. In fact, this entire system could get caught up in an approaching trough and be dragged over the same areas it visited the past few days - a full loop-de-loop. Supposedly, it will eventually get caught up in the trough and be history..but I'm not even sold on that notion! It could revisit again in another loop. Fun to watch and speculate over in any case.

 

But what about off the Florida Coast as mentioned above? As mentioned earlier, some form of tropical activity could be in the making 100-200 miles off the Florida East coast during the next 12-36 hours. We'll have to watch this as it could have a significant impact on the weather from any where from Flagler County south to Dade County from late Tuesday night through Wednesday...so for now..the reality of the situation is that that time frame is up for grabs. (as he thanks the fact that this is an unofficial blog post and can get away with 'forecast murder'). Said in jest of course.

 

More to write about tomorrow but watch the sky in a NW-N direction today, particularly as we approach the early evening hour!

More of the Same Today for East Central Florida

(Image: Atlas V Rocket Launch This Morning from KSC)

RECAP: Weather evolved pretty much as expected yesterday, with the strongest activity over Central Orange county this time rather than over Osceola County as it did on Thursday evening. Rain showers also dotted much of the landscape, even along the immediate coast, from Patrick AFB up to Jacksonville, with one lone thunderstorm SSW of West Palm Beach during the early evening. Maybe not quite as much coverage today, but locations will be pretty much be the same as yesterday with one or two good lightning producers in the offering later this afternoon most likely inland. Oddly, a brief waterspout was reported by a pilot offshore Key Biscayne within the past hour from a mere cloud line. The Miami radar is currently in 'clear air mode' which I find humorous. Talk about unexpected.

 

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure continues to push down the U.S. Eastern seaboard behind a frontal boundary whose southern most extent seems to have penetrated into east central portions of Georgia. Otherwise, disorganized area of low pressure persists along the N. Gulf Coast region, seemingly centered inland now near Clanton, Alabama or SSE of Montgomery.  Over the state of Florida a weak bubble of high pressure was located right along the east coast of Central Florida near sunrise, but during the past 2-3 hours that seems to be retrograding west toward the Gulf. Aloft, mid-level winds are generally from the west at 10-15mph and PWATs are even lower than yesterday but still within a reasonable range for shower/storm development. In the upper levels winds are light easterly, and as a result some very high, thin patches of cirrus clouds are passing over way up there from off the Atlantic.

 

TODAY: The winds along the coast near Canaveral and PAFB were nearly calm initially, but have since sunrise picked up a bit from the west as the land-breeze finally began to small degree in this region right after sunrise. A sea-breeze might have already begun down by Miami which is what would have help produce the waterspout (perhaps). Believe the delayed land-breeze might have partially been due to a surface high over the region. Winds at around 8-9am finally have been felt from the west, but only ever so lightly. There is significantly less shower activity up in North Central portions of the state than at this same time yesterday, with the only precipitation near the state being over the Panhandle. None in the GOM or over the Atlantic waters.  Mid-level winds are still from the west a bit weaker than yesterday, but those could very well veer to more of a WNW-NW direction by later today. Atmosphere not abundantly saturated, and warm mid-level temps (around 11C at 700mb and -5 at 500mb) not much different from yesterday.

 

Local WRF model guidance as well as the latest RUC are both indicating an earlier start to precipitation today along the immediate east coast, perhaps due to the fact that the sea breeze should start a little earlier with the slightly weaker west winds aloft; I'd guess onset would be between 11am-noon (if not sooner) rather than between 12pm-1pm. The earlier onset would jive with the slightly weaker westerlies directly overhead this morning. As such, showers could form anywhere from the Daytona region south to perhaps as far south as Melbourne east of I-95 between 1:15pm-2:15pm and creep in toward the coast, especially between the Space Center and Melbourne Beach. Further south showers might have a hard time reaching the coast or even forming for that matter due to even weaker westerlies aloft which might never actually overcome the sea breeze induced easterlies today at anytime (i.e., especially from Sebastian southward to Miami).  As such, any activity to go up today south of somewhere between Melbourne Beach to Sebastian will likely remain west of US-1 or even I-95.

 

But in the more likely areas to see rain (north of Melbourne Beach) there could be several chances for a rain shower anytime from around 2pm - 7pm.

but lightning chances for this activity will likely be low-end. However, inland could be a different story where greater instability will be realized due to greater (prolonged) surface heating over the landmass.  The west coast sea breeze might be a little slower at working across the state than the past two days, but eventually by 6pm it could reach east of Orlando. In should be noted that the past two days the west coast sea breeze progression has been very tricky and has pulled a few fast ones on us (mostly due to convective outflows from activity that went up along its leading edge).

 

But putting that possibility aside, activity should go up along and ahead of this boundary after 3pm, particularly from anywhere north of Central Osceola County to the Georgia border while any coastal activity that might have happened to form earlier will wane.  Collapse of these stronger inland storms, particularly over Orange, Eastern Lake, Western Volusia and Seminole Counties could accelerate the west coast sea breeze toward the east very late in the afternoon into the early evening...particularly from Indian River County up toward Cocoa Beach. Some areas, particularly near Rte 60 in SE Osceola County north into SW Brevard where much of the area could have remained rain-free (and thus still more unstable) might see an early evening thunderstorm as well.

 

Another area of interest to monitor will be along the northeast  through southeast shores of Lake Okeechobee where earlier sea breeze onset could work with the Lake Okeechobee lake breeze. Any ensuring collision down that way could give rise to a storm somewhere around Palm City to Green Acres, or over the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge...all areas west of I-95.

 

SUNDAY:  The weak frontal boundary off the Georgia coast will work a little further south of the NE Florida Coast and diffuse as the ridge axis across South Florida breaks down a little with one portion retrograding further into the Gulf and eastern portion off the SE Florida coast. This will leave most of the peninsula in a very weak pressure pattern with perhaps a bit of a NNW-NNE flow aloft, albeit very weak. Therefore, expect most activity at this time to be limited to be sea/lake breeze collision driven over inland areas. But note, some numerical models are indicating better chances of rain tomorrow, but my thinking at this time is that those chances will come on Monday, if at all. One more reason for needing to make a blog post tomorrow I suppose.

Photocopy of Yesterday (Pretty Much)

(Image: Rain shower over the Beachline (528) as it moves over Cocoa, FL heading toward Port Canaveral yesterday)

 

RECAP: As was expected, yesterday was almost null of thunderstorms over South and Central Florida other than a boomer over NE Osceola County in the early evening which died as it headed toward the Brevard County line. Other than that one, there was a wide 'sparcity' of rain showers which moved off the coast from near Satellite Beach up to Jacksonville. The sea breeze over Central Florida never reached much further west than I-95.

 

SYNOPSIS:  Not much change from yesterday with surface-mid level ridge over South Florida and frontal boundary pulling off the NE to mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal region. Higher pressure is building south behind the frontal boundary to somewhere hear the N/S Carolina boarder region. Locally, we have the high pressure axis over south Florida but the upper level high appears to be forecast to be located very close to East/Central Florida or just off shore by sunset.  Already, the KSC sounding is showing dryer PWATs today...but with a slightly veering wind profile aloft from yesterday (mainly from west to east). Additionally, the 500mb temp is about a degree or two cooler, but then again the mid-level temp. is a degree or two warmer.

 

The only the notably different from yesterday is that there appears to be an earlier onset of very widely spread rain showers pushing across N/Central Florida and into the immediate Central portions (like the Orlando area) as well as of noon.  With a westerly steering current of about 15kts just above the surface we are getting just a little later than normal sea-breeze onset, but with PAFB already having gone light and variable..the sea-breeze will be in session from around KSC and all points south by 1pm.

 

TODAY: With the sea breeze having begun from at least near Cape Canaveral and points south by 1pm and continued prevailing westerlies not far above our heads..believe the sea breeze will again have a hard time reaching much further west than I-95 as far south as perhaps Vero Beach. My initial impression from visible satellite imagery animation is that the west coast sea breeze has already worked into far Western Orange and Osceola and Lake Counties, placing its arrival to the east coast or along I-95 from Titusville south in the 3:00pm near Titusville to about 5pm down by Vero Beach time frame (and possibly even up to an hour earlier than that)....and all points in between sometime between those two times.  The breeze is not as enhanced as it was yesterday, as yesterday it had earlier west coast storm outflow to give it an additional shove. Rain showers are depicted along the west coast sea breeze though as I write as it heads from west to east seemingly unimpeded by the light easterly winds up at max rain shower top levels as shown by the cirrus streaking back opposite the direction of motion.  Storm motion will initially be from West to East but may veer by late in the day to more of a WNW-ESE direction.

 

With all said, today should be pretty much a carbon copy of yesterday as far a rain storm intensity and locations goes...but perhaps eventually affecting a larger area of real estate from Tampa east to near Melbourne Beach and all areas north of that line, with all areas from Orlando east best being impacted noticeably earlier.  With the earlier time frame, can't discount some renegade storms forming just about anywhere well behind the west coast sea breeze as we work into the early evening hours...mostly north of a Vero Beach - Tampa line. I am interested to see what will happen along the immediate East Coast from Cape Canaveral to around Melbourne Beach late in the day, particularly if the mid-level winds due indeed veer at all....this could give storms an extra boost and slight turning in the mid-levels if this does occur.

 

Further south, I'm somewhat in a quandary as to what could happen south of Vero. The models as well as the Storm Prediction Center are indicating precip. as far south as Miami from I-95 and west of there  by very late in the afternoon, but sounding data and current radar/satellite trends are not hinting at this to occur. Thus, interested to see what occurs over the region bounded by St. Lucie, Okeechobee, and Palm Beach Counties later today.

 

TOMORROW: Not much exciting to discuss. Looks like the east coast sea breeze will have an earlier initiation time for almost all of the Florida Coast with not as much of a push back toward the east during the mid-late afternoon hours as mid level winds weaken. Therefore, believe most rain activity will be limited to inland areas for most of the peninsula. We'll have to recheck on that during the course of a couple more model runs to see what evolves before posting tomorrow morning though.

 

SUNDAY-MONDAY: So far this time frame is looking pretty darned uneventful for the East Coast if not most of the peninsula as far as robust thunderstorms goes...will have to watch to see what happens to a somewhat mid-level backdoor boundary being shoved south off the U.S. East Coast by ridging to the north..as well as how that boundary interacts with lingering low pressure over the N. Gulf Coast region. Lots more will be revealed, but for now I'll suffice it to say that nothing remarkable is in the makings for the next 2-3 days. Also to watch for may be a mid-level low to form north of the Bahamas at the tail end of the mid-level trough as the remaining portions of the trough push off well into the Atlantic.

 

 

Possible Showers/Storms For Central-North Portions of Florida

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure remnant TD5 resides near the big toe of Louisiana this morning with little forward motion detected. High pressure developing in its wake over South and Central Florida well out into the Atlantic to the east, the axis of which appears to be running east-WSW across the state near South Brevard County toward Ft. Myers. Moisture throughout the atmosphere not as abundant as the past few days, but ample enough for showers and thunderstorms, particularly where moisture convergence occurs with boundary interactions between lake/sea breezes. Steering through the column is generally from the SW across the north half of Central Florida and further north (where the greater moisture also resides).

 

TODAY: Expect the west coast sea breeze to make an early head start late this morning, whereas the east coast sea breeze will have a hard time being established north of somewhere between Melbourne and the Space Center. Delayed sea breeze at least north of Melbourne toward Oak Hill will permit late morning temperatures to be quite warm. Warm mid-upper level temperatures and lack of boundary convergence will likely inhibit late morning convection significantly along the intracoastal. By mid-late afternoon expecting showers and isolated thunderstorms to have developed mainly north of a Melbourne to north of Okeechobee line and points west from near Sarasota north. All activity will move toward the NE-ENE..and be somewhat enhanced as it roles in from S. Osceola county and points north, particularly where there are interactions with the sea breeze. After an afternoon of plentiful sunshine across much of the peninsula, instability levels will maximize after 4:30pm after daytime heating. Boundary interactions will likely be maximized after this time as well since surface winds in the aforementioned areas south of Melbourne (the sea breeze) is strongest. A low level wind shear axis could be established as well where convergence is maximized...much like yesterday where the prevalent SW flow over-runs the sea breeze boundary...so some funnels could be possible under the deepest updrafts. Not really expecting robust lightning producers though, with greatest coastal rain chances for the east coast from around Cocoa Beach and points north of Daytona toward St. Augustine.

 

DAYS AHEAD: Having to quickly broad-brush this portion this morning due to time constraints, but models are trending toward leaving a somewhat chaotic area of low pressure along the N. Gulf Coast region for nearly a week. In the meantime, high pressure to build southward along the U.S. East Coast and forcing somewhat of a "backdoor" cold front down the eastern sea board ahead of it in the next couple of days as the surface and mid level ridge of high pressure remains over S. Florida. Moisture levels not overly impressive under a continued W-SW steering flow regime with warm temps. aloft, precluding widespread thunderstorm activity...or storms of notably strong intensity. Temperatures will likely remain on the warm side (a few degrees above normal) for much of the state other than extreme SE portions along the coast south of West Palm Beach. Eyes will undoubtedly be focused on the N. Gulf for future development, but at this time it does not look like any development there would be of solely tropical nature. Thunderstorm activity will remain at generally normal to just below normal levels.

Lull in Rain Activity for Central Florida - More to Come?

RECAP: Early in the day rainfall yesterday produced rain amounts over 2.00" in many locales. In Cape Canaveral we received 2.19" bringing the total from Friday and Saturday up to exactly 5.00". So much for a local drought...since more could be on the way. There was a waterspout reported offshore Clearwater, FL yesterday, but most active weather reports outside of rain were wind gust reports from storms near Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral, and Lake Okeechobee (just to name a limited few) which were in the 40-45mph range.

 

SYNOPSIS: This morning it appears a weak surface low might by located just off shore the East Coast NE of Cape Canaveral, but equally low surface pressures are being measured on land areas as far south as West Palm Beach. At the mid-levels low pressure seems to be taking shape somewhere over extreme SW Florida whereas in the upper levels it is most discernible over the West Central Bahamas well offshore Ft. Lauderdale. So as we can see, it is a very disorganized and broad area of low pressure that is in the cards for today. Some drier air in the upper levels wrapped around the front side of the upper low after the passage of yesterday's rains, but that area of 'dryness' has thinned out and is moving out from the Northeast portions of the state. The mid-low levels remain very moist though, and as such many areas are reporting light fog and low cloud ceilings as of 8am which will likely burn off by 10am.

 

TODAY: First off, and amazingly, little change in forecast thinking from yesterday's post.  Believe that with some daytime heating the surface low will eventually move right on to the coast initially but then relocate somewhere west of Ft. Pierce (or in the Lake Okeechobee region) closer to the mid-level low which seems to be near SW Florida at this time.  Winds will remain light most of the day but assume a general easterly, sea breeze type direction and rain chances along the coast north of Vero could remain pretty low most of the day, but heating of the day (by early-mid afternoon) will more assuredly have more to reveal. But as of this time, expect that any significant rains to fall most of the day will be across the state from Ft. Pierce, south. Particularly just south of West Palm Beach, through the south half of the Lake Okeechobee region, all of the Florida Keys, and to just north of Ft. Myers on the west coast. There will remain the threat of waterspouts and thunderstorms in this same region.

 

TONIGHT: The surface, mid, and upper level lows will begin to coalescence into 'somewhat' more of a concentrated area somewhere just west - southwest of Lake Okeechobee after sunset and continue to organize slowly and somewhat chaotically more so over night as the upper low near the Bahamas moves generally west and perhaps a bit south of that same location.  As such, a stacked gradient midlevel flow behind all of these systems from the E-SE will increase along the east coast of the state from near Flagler County - Indian River County with Brevard in the central locale for strongest winds aloft at all levels from about 8,000 ft to around 18,000 ft (at least).  This deep, stacked gradient flow (note, I didn't say 'low') should advect even more moisture through atmospheric layers into East Central Florida originating from the Bahamas beginning post-sunset and through all of Tuesday.  Surface winds shouldn't be that big of a deal since the surface low will remain weak...but as moisture, and thus rain chances, increase downdraft winds from rain showers could be noticeably gusty. I see rain chances for tomorrow as shown on The Weather Channel as well as numerical models are already indicating a 60% chance of rain for Tuesday, but wouldn't be surprised to see that number boosted upwards for portions of Central and South Central Florida by tonight if the above conditions develop as stated. Temperatures aloft will remain on the warm side though, so robust thunder and lightning is not expected. However, we'll have to continue to monitor the situation for the possibility of land falling waterspouts with the heaviest rainstorms, particularly on Tuesday.

 

TUESDAY: I'm painting a worst case scenario for this day.  If conditions do develop as noted, then Tuesday will be a good day to keep an umbrella handy. Rain showers could move onshore from the Atlantic at just about anytime from sunrise-after sunset well into the evening toward early Wednesday. Minor street flooding would be possible where training of fast moving rain showers and possibly some thunder occurs anywhere from near Daytona to West Palm Beach. Keep tuned into your favorite media outlets by this evening to see how things are developing (assuming they do).

 

WEDNESDAY: Again, no change in thinking. This will be a transition day. It appears the low pressure system will become a bit more organized and move west-northwest to passage almost directly over the infamous oil-spill region toward the coast of Louisiana or perhaps Mississippi. High pressure will weakly reassert itself across the state as gradient flow at all levels significantly abates and shifts toward more of a southerly direction during the day. Normal diurnal sea breeze/lake breeze convection anticipated with most of it likely remaining just west of the US1-I-95 corridor over Central Florida but almost anywhere for the southern third of the state.

 

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: High pressure ridge axis to slowly sink south toward the southern tip of Florida as a large low pressure area NE of the Great Lakes region and associated mid-low level trough takes shape down the Appalachians. Mid-level flow will be from the SW-W while surface flow will remain weak, permitting daily sea breezes on both coasts to form. Rain chances will return to around the 40% range...but shower/thunderstorm motion during the mid-late afternoon will be slowly toward the east side of the state, with early morning-early afternoon activity developing along the west side.

Elevated Rain/Storm Chances Through Next Sunday for East Florida

RECAP: It's been interesting the past two days for East/South Florida the past two days. A funnel cloud near the Space Center, waterspouts over Lake Okeechobee and offshore West Palm Beach, and weak EF-0 tornadoes in Boca Raton and New Smyrna Beach. Also some locally heavy rainfall here in Cape Canaveral with 2.81" recorded over a very small area yesterday from a slow moving back-building cell just south of the Cape. More is in the offering to various degrees for portions of Central and especially South Florida (south of a line from Ft. Pierce on the east coast to Port Charlotte on the west coast) through Tuesday!

 

SYNOPSIS: The quasi-stationary boundary discussed yesterday that was in S. Georgia seems to have sunk into N. Florida and is now south of I-10. It currently appears to be just south of St. Augustine-Gainesville. It should sink  further south during the day to near Daytona or even Oak Hill by sunset. Meanwhile, a complex area of low pressure from the surface to the upper levels is developing from the Bahamas-across Central/South Florida/eastern Gulf of Mexico and along the Florida W. Coast from Tampa and points south.  The ridge axis that has the bane of our dry existence for Central Florida all summer seems to have sunk toward the Florida Straits and is pretty much out of the picture for the next two-three days, at least.

 

TODAY: Plentiful atmospheric moisture (PWAT above 2.0" all locales) combined with the weak surface boundary to the north as stated in the 'synopsis' portion, combined with an early afternoon on set of the East Coast sea breeze and instability with heating of the day should once again provide the dynamics for some decent rainstorm/thunderstorm coverage particularly south of a line from Daytona Beach on the east coast to west of Brooksville on the west coast of the peninsula. There is a very persistent area of storms well off the Central Florida east coast near the N. Bahamas which has been there for over 24 hours (which is perhaps a sign of things to come).  This area is moving slowly south..and may be 'coupling' with another disturbance along Florida Gulf Coast on the other side of the state. Light west winds this morning should give way to a sea-breeze boundary around noon time which probably won't even make it as far west as Orlando area due to deep (but somewhat weak)westerly flow aloft.  Expect spotty showers/storms to impact the east coast as early as noon time, considering there already is a small shower near Daytona as of this writing. Initially motion of activity will be from the W-WNW but may very well swing around to more of a NNW direction by mid-late afternoon from Sebastian and points north as an area of low pressure becomes more organized at the surface and aloft.

 

It must be noted that chances of rain along the east half of Central Florida is totally contingent upon where the low pressure at the mid-levels finally organizes during the course of late this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Thus, rain chances could go from very high to very low by late afternoon...for now it's probably best to err on the wet side until morning model runs and radar/satellite trends are established. There are hints from local the local WRF that all rain activity will be shunted toward the SW-W Florida side of the state by late afternoon...leaving East Central Florida rain free.

 

(Possible active weather today as well: Although not expecting especially strong thunderstorms today YET due to 500mb temps around -6C there is always the ever present threats from cloud to ground lightning. 700mb temps have dropped maybe 1 degree since days of late..and an additional one or two degree drop could occur during the course of the afternoon if indeed low pressure starts to develop over or near the state...this bears watching since this if it does drop that would provide a boost to storm activity later in the day. Additionally, the threat for funnel clouds and waterspouts (some which may becoming land falling), particularly on the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters remains ever present at almost any time after 1pm for the entire Florida east coast from the Cape to S. of Miami).

 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: As stated above, everything is contingent upon where low pressure organizes. It currently appears to me that a weak surface low may end up actually developing right over the peninsula west of Ft. Pierce with the mid-level low forming just east of that location sometime overnight into Monday. This will be a pretty broad and disorganized area of low pressure though, and will affect a broad expanse of real-estate. Particularly from Ft. Pierce and points south around the tip of South Florida and up the west coast near Pt. Charlotte and everywhere across the peninsula between those locations. Outside of this zone, the region further north to a N. Brevard County to N. Hillsborough county line will also be in the pot for enhanced rain chances, just not as much so as those areas further south.

 

As the area of low pressure organizes and moves generally westward into the Gulf there may actually be a complete lull in activity along the east coast north of Vero Beach, but then as the low moves further into the Gulf and high pressure builds in its wake a deep SSE-SE flow will target East Central Florida, namely Brevard-Indian River-St. Lucie County...sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Thus, after a lull later tonight and Monday rain chances could climb on Tuesday.

 

WEDNESDAY: Transition day as the low pressure area moves further away and high pressure begins to reassert an influence. Thunderstorms likely in a generic summer pattern.

 

LATE THURSDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Ridge at the surface and aloft still appears as though it will reassert itself over S. Central Florida (as mentioned yesterday) around the latitude of the South Shores of Lake Okeechobee, if not further south than that as another front and mid-level trough deepens down the U.S. East Coast. As a result, steering flow from the SW will commence in this time frame favoring the west side of the state for morning - early afternoon storms and central and eastern portions of all of Florida from early afternoon into the evening hours.