A Strange case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

(Images: There are 2 images included today; Facebook viewers will need to open this post to view in entirety).

 

Shown: Bi-polar Jekyll and Hyde twin conditions shown in today's mid-level(700mb) presentation of the U.S. The polar opposite is shown in roughly 4 days in the second image when by this time each stormy low level pressure system is replaced with high pressure, leading to the U.S. Synopsis.

 

As can be seen in the first image, an "Omega Block" pattern is at perfect peak performance this morning. "Jekyll" is over the Northeast U.S. and being his sedate self: mostly cool, cloudy, and somewhat wet. A sop. On the other hand, Mr. Hyde is up to devilish no goodness over the Desert Southwest region.  In between these two characters is high pressure over the mid-section of the U.S. Note this as this area will be discussed again later.

 

The dynamic duo began the adventure over the weekend with some severe warnings in S.E. California and wet, cold slop over the Great Lakes into Pennsylvania (of many locales), and since that time Hyde has continued to be nothing less than the Devil's Advocate in Arizona, especially since near noon time yesterday up to the time of this writing. Numerous severe level hail and wind reports have been driving the teletype in full gear, with a plethora of sub-severe level yet exciting weather conditions jamming the lines. Two confirmed tornadoes already, with warnings going out as I type. The weather services in Phoenix and Flagstaff are quite busy. Might add, there has been some tornado reports with significant damage as well. As Flagstaff puts it: "IT CONTINUED TO BE A VERY ACTIVE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE/TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. A CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG LOW SPINS OVER CALIFORNIA." North/Central portions of Arizona and portion South/Central Utah are in a Tornado Watch until 8PM EDT.

 

Second Image: But there is a good side to everything as well as a bad one. Jekyll will run out of potion. By the end of the weekend instead of Jekyll and Hyde (the old toy "Clackers" comes to mind if your old enough to know they even existed, but were banned due to their propensity to apply personal injury to the 7-8 year old users)...we will be looking at Pom-Poms in the NE and SW U.S. High. Sort of like going from hard to soft porn...a pleasant break from the rough and tumble. Meanwhile, right where we have the High Pressure over the mid-section mentioned above, we will find a trough cutting through the mid-section of the U.S. At time, doesn't look like there will be much impact directly associated with this, but honestly have not delved deeply into this fairly fast moving system. It will head toward the N.E. states in Jekyll's wake, while the Desert S.W. remains sedated, living up to its good old self once again -- dry.

 

LOCALLY/TODAY: Wow, cold this morning in Crestview at 41F and Tallahassee at 45F! But that's long gone, in fact those temperatures rose almost 15 degrees in the first 3 hours of day light. Locally, breezy N-NNE winds and a few clouds. Cool with a high in the low 80s. Tonight, like last night. Much the same through the end of the work week with winds letting up noticeably by later in the day Thursday and a little warmer, but not by much. SE Florida could have the winds until Friday though.

 

WEEKEND: Little change, but even nicer. Winds die down significantly, and what wind there be will exist will be NE-E. Slight chance of a very light rain shower, but really and for the most part, negligible. Will watch to see if more moisture advects toward the coast to generate showers, but it appears the low/mid level winds won't be strong enough to do the trick.

 

LATER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A front approaches as winds become more southerly to perhaps southwesterly for a brief time, but of light strength. The front might go through dry though (no rain)...but it's still too soon to say for sure. Gonna have to monitor the trends as we go through the weekend.

 

TROPICS: I think we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Otto if not by early evening then by tomorrow morning. The low pressure system is located just north of Puerto Rico and is currently tangled up in a meteorological mess with an upper level low near by, as well as with the low pressure trough off the U.S. East Coast. As such, it's categorized as a sub-tropical depression. Whatever. But everything is pointing toward this low probably going from a 'subtropical low' to a flat out Tropical Storm at whatever point the Hurricane Center opts to flip the switch. Exactly how long the system remains a tropical entity varies per model runs, but it won't be too long. Perhaps only 2 days, maybe 4. Regardless, it'll be history. Although the eventual impacts to Great Britain are intriguing.

 

Elsewhere, Otto (I'll call it that for simplistic sake and since it doesn't matter either way) might have a little sister Paula. Are you seeing the trend that I am? Things are happening in pairs. Named or not named, it appears likely another 'system of sorts' will form within the same broad, scheme of things, trough that 'yet to be named Otto' forms in. Only at the extreme tail end which is somewhat intermingled with the area of low pressure that's been over the Caribbean for quite some time now. This system is up for grabs for now, considering that other than model hints, there's nothing to prove its eventual birth...but the Caribbean still looks a little pregnant.

 

To paint an entertaining picture though and to emphasize how nuts things get when foreseeing something beyond the horizon, last night's 00Z GFS run turned this area into a full blown hurricane and took it north across West Cuba...heading straight for Florida. But fear not, the 06z run came out and simply took this area on a free tour through the Western Caribbean across the Yucatan and back to it's origins...and at perhaps Depression status it is picked up by a trough off the U.S. East Coast to follow a path similar to "Otto". The 12Z shows similar, but lets the system die in place, never being named. Almost likes the tropics has an abortion (all seriousness aside,pulleez). We'll see.

Chance of a Sprinkle East/Central Brevard , Otherwise Pleasant/Breezy

(Casting the sunrise fishing line in hopes of a catch -- he succeeded)

SYNOPSIS/LARGE SCALE OUTLOOK: Not much has changed since yesterday mornings post. And as such, pleasant weather prevails across all but extreme SE Florida this morning where low clouds linger. Low pressure prevails over the Bahamas and the East/Central Caribbean, across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and further east. Trough extends from the far NE states down the offshore Eastern Seaboard to meet the area of low pressure just outlined. Low clouds along the extreme SE Florida coast are associated with the western fringes of the lower pressures. Meanwhile, high pressure bridges the gap over the entire Central U.S. where pleasant, but somewhat cold conditions, prevail (especially cool toward the upper Ohio Valley region). In the mid-levels in fact, gradient flow between the low pressure trough and this high pressure are gradually developing a northerly component flow that streams the whole way from NW Minnesota, across Florida, then south to near Panama (Central America)! This general pattern will persist for the next several days with no storm systems to impact any of Florida. Elsewhere, the Omega Block pattern will be at its peak perfect performance later today into tonight before the low over the upper/inland mid-Atlantic States lifts to the ENE then NE, while the low over the Desert southwest lifts north, weakens, and gets caught up in the upper level westerlies and like wise moves east in a much weakened state. The most exciting weather today will be over Arizona, Southern Nevada, and Southern and perhaps Central Utah before this low slowly moves out in a weakened state today. This region has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center to be in a Slight Risk for severe storm today.

 

LOCALLY: As high pressure builds south and east this afternoon over the Plains and eventually the Deep South states, the pressure gradient between the trough aloft (and somewhat at the surface over the Gulf Stream waters) will tighten, producing some breezy conditions mainly from the Cape south to Miami (more so the further south one goes).  As noted yesterday, there are some patches of moisture developing within this squeeze play which are producing sporadic patches of stratocumulus clouds (one of which passed over East Central Florida around 9AM). More of this benign activity can be expected in unpredictable intervals this afternoon and this evening. Winds will back a little more to the NE by early afternoon along with tightening of the isobars to a mild degree, as such we could see breezy conditions along the coast by early afternoon and through the evening hours. Models have backed off on rain chances since last night, but consistently produce fluke shower chances over extreme East Brevard County as well as extreme East Dade County. Latest visible satellite animation does show some concentrated streams of stratocumulus heading toward the Cape at this hour, with perhaps some barely detectable raindrops within, but of no significance whatsoever.

 

TODAY: Becoming breezy along the coast with a few moments of stratocumulus clouds possibly giving some character to otherwise mostly clear skies. Very tempted to discard any chance of even a raindrop to fall given the shallow depth of atmospheric moisture aloft, as well as the lower dew points at the surface in which any rain that could fall from a denser, small cloud patch would evaporate before reaching soil. Melbourne radar is currently in "clear air mode" if that's any indication as to their concerns about rain falling. It appears the best chance of detectable rainfall would be within a narrow window between late afternoon to shortly after sunrise Wednesday, worst case. High temperatures in the low 80s. Otherwise, the gut says even that might be a stretch. No worries, but boating on the Atlantic today wouldn't be advised for other than the experienced due to rough, offshore waters and heightened winds and seas.

 

TOMORROW: Continued a bit breezy but no chance of rain. Perhaps a few clouds, but again, we'll probably have to look hard to find them.

 

THURSDAY: The only change for this period is an abatement of the wind under mostly clear skies.

 

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Continued much the same with a teeny-tiny warm up of undescript nature. Will watch to see another, stronger influx of cool/dry air infiltrating down the peninsula during this time frame, with little affect other than to reinforce the current conditions of the past two days. But really, this period remains up for grabs in my mind as far as how much more easterly the wind will get, but rain wise...close to nada.

 

TROPICS: Their making sort of a big deal about the area designated 97L on The Weather Channel this morning, I think mainly because it's just something to talk about. Development of this system to depression or Otto Status remains sketchy, although the Hurricane Center has upped the chance of tropical development for this area to 40%. Regardless, it poses no threat to any landmass other than some rainy conditions over the Leeward Islands and eventually Puerto Rico late today. As noted yesterday, a piece of energy appears consistently now to break off this area and form another system south of Jamaica in days ahead. Models are coming close to agreement to this eventuality, with a system forming in the far SW Caribbean near Nicaragua. The GFS model is the sole model to have this system actually get picked up by the trough running down the U.S. east coast, and as such taking this potentially named system across Eastern Cuba and the Western Bahamas way beyond one week from now. Otherwise, the system just meanders way down there and either dissipates or moves in to Central America as hinted at in other models.

No End In Sight To Early Fall Weather for the East

Image: "Omega Block" pattern indicated by nearly cut-off low pressures aloft over the Ohio Valley and SW U.S.  for Tuesday evening as forecast by the NAM model

 

MORNING RECAP: Weak frontal boundary passed through Florida yesterday afternoon and now resides near the Keys and into the Bahamas this morning. Graphical depictions and surface observations indicate a fairly classic drainage flow scenario in place for all but extreme S. Florida (over the Keys and the Southern Tip) where cloud conditions prevail over the Keys and extreme SW Florida. A narrow band of low/mid-level clouds is sweeping down the east coast just offshore, with some partly cloudy observations being observed along the landmass as the deepest extent of the clouds remains offshore now approaching Daytona Beach.

 

TEMPERATURES: Further south, the keys are socked in this morning where the front seems to have come to a halt, or at least slowed down quite a bit. Rain showers fall over the Florida Straits either along or south of this boundary, hard to say for sure. Meanwhile, coldest temperatures as one would expect are over the Extreme North/Western Florida Panhandle with, if you can believe, there's a Wind Chill Index (WCI) temperature of 43F (!) and ambient air temperature of 46F at Mary Esther at 7AM. Elsewhere, the extent of the coolest air (but not nearly as cool as that at Mary Esther) gives credence to drainage flow with temperatures as far south and west as Tampa to Punta Gorda; Tampa Exec. this morning just prior to sunrise is 57F and Punta Gorda and Okeechobee are 63F. In retrospect, despite the cloudy conditions over the Keys they are still the warmest with sunrise mercury readings just under 80F!

 

For comparisons sake, and to emphasize the affect of having close proximity to the near shore Atlantic Waters, Patrick AFB is 72F (my porch is 69F) where as Melbourne is 63F. That's nearly a ten degree difference just by crossing the Intracoastal. Sky at sunrise at my place is a cobalt blue clear with a light northwest wind right as the first hints of the rising sun become evident to the east. As was written about last winter, we will see the affect of the near shore waters at times having a distinct affect on A1A corridor temperatures almost every morning; 10 degree temperature differences between the I-95 Corridor and A1A are not unusual. Also, as is noted this morning, coldest morning temperatures over Central and South Florida are found in those same locations noted in the previous paragraph.

 

SYNOPSIS: As can be seen in the included image, an "Omega Blocking" pattern has been becoming established now for the past 48 hours and will continue through at least Wednesday. It is called an "Omega Block" because the pattern shown in the image of the two low pressure areas and the high pressure in-between resembles the Greek letter "Omega". These can last for several days or even a couple of weeks. Elsewhere, broad area of low pressure continues over the Caribbean and SW Atlantic over Puerto Rico and east of there. Invest 97L is located over Puerto Rico and ESE of there with a 20% chance of development. Another area of 10% interest is located even further east and south of 97L.

 

SYNOPSIS FORECAST: In this case, it appears the Omega Blocking pattern will last under a week, but needs to be watched.  Models are known for trying to kick these patterns out too quickly, but from all appearances they seem to have a respectable reason for kicking out the low now over the Ohio Valley; after all, that low has been up there for nearly 48 hours already. This low will fill and be shifted to the E and ENE then eventually NE toward Eastern Nova Scotia as we head into late week as the low over the Desert SW Region begins to weaken and drifts only slowly east with time. Meanwhile in the short term, the Desert SW is enjoying a rather late season monsoonal rain event for them, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms being issued for West Central Arizona tomorrow by the Storm Prediction Center. They are expecting some isolated strong storms today as well, mainly over extreme SE California, southern Nevada near Las Vegas and south into Arizona. A funnel cloud was sighted and filmed over S. Cal Saturday with flash flooding concurrent. This storm had slight rotation with it.

 

LOCALLY: As the low over the Ohio Valley kicks out winds aloft will become more westerly whereas surface winds will become progressively from a more northerly component and eventually NE component by later today and seemingly for eternity. Thickness values change little (the thickness between the 'standard' 500mb -1000mb levels). This thickness is determined by the average temperature between the two standard levels. Since thickness values change little, so will be the surface temperatures. Although, at the very lowest levels, that which we feel and read on the thermometer, temperatures will be begin a small warming trend most notable by morning low temperatures warming a bit beginning Tuesday along the coast and most all locations by Wednesday, with the result being temperatures around normal or perhaps a few degrees below 'normal', but no big deal.

 

MOISTURE/RAIN: The short term and extended period as far as clouds and rain are concerned are predominantly dry. Any influx of atmospheric moisture to the peninsula (other than the Keys) will be shallow and short-lived, and mostly limited to the east coast from Daytona to Miami. Things get a bit stickier from Ft. Lauderdale and points south, but will omit discussion for that region this morning. Either way one slices the pie, as noted, moisture will be limited to and below the 5000ft level, and its appearance will come in the form of periods of stratocumulus clouds and perhaps a light sprinkle detectable on the car windshield with nothing even measurable. It does not look like these periods would produce any more than partly cloudy to maybe mostly cloudy conditions when they do occur, but their presence should be relatively short lived (6 hours at most).

 

TROPICS: Invest 97L persists just east of Puerto Rico and shows an ever decreasing threat to anyone, including Bermuda. To exemplify a scenario painted by the latest GFS run, this system is expected to get booted post haste to the NE but some energy remains which continues to drift west toward Jamaica with time. As such, we might be seeing a new Invest area somewhere South of Jamaica over the weekend. But even still, if this system develops to the degree implied, the winds aloft over Florida and across the Gulf are easily from the west which would either sheer the system out or quickly give it a swift kick to its tropical butt way out there in time to the NE. Pure speculation. In essence, no tropical threats as things appear now through mid-October. On the other hand, some models show a threat to the Bahamas of  a named system. Either way, no U.S. threats are indicated.

 

Summer ("OFF) - Fall ("ON")

(Image: low pressure center near or over the Cape mid-morning this Satur-day)

 

SYNOPSIS: Who flicked the switch on October 1st!? Just stick your toes outside and feel the difference in the air mass out there which began yesterday. Low and mid level low pressure contained within a large, deep upper level trough which extends along the entire U.S. East Coast is located very close to the Space Center mid-morning. Image included in this post shows the moisture trying to wrap around this low with some enhanced cumulus showing up on recent visible satellite imagery to the north of the Space Center which is visible with the naked eye from Canaveral. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough/upper level vorticity max is rotating around the more prevalent upper level trough and is bottoming out near the NW Keys (where some isolated showers have popped over the waters NW-N of Key West). This vort max will translate NEward in the upper level trough and pass across south and central Florida this afternoon and evening. A few rain showers exist off the N. Brevard Coast and points north to meeting land near Jacksonville.

 

TODAY: Beautiful morning to start the day, with a 7AM surface observation at the Port Entrance reading 70F degrees and a dew point of 70 degrees as well with light/variable winds. This would reflect this area being near the center of the low shown in the included image. With light winds and drier air in surrounding areas, temperatures will quickly rise thru late morning into the afternoon, especially away from the coast toward Orlando.  As noted above, an area of upper level energy is passing near the Keys this morning. This area is about to reach the base of the upper level trough and from this point on will translate NEward during the day across South Florida and across South Central Florida this afternoon. As it crosses the depicted low the resultant coalition will (1): strengthen the low to a small degree, and (2) Begin to lift the low off to the NNE and away from the state. As it lifts north and pulls away from the state drier air will be advected down the state, mainly across North and Central Florida in the form of a 'dry front'. But as far as the weather goes today...

 

Current analysis shows highest dew points and mid-level moisture, enough to support rain showers, are playing a gambling game with the immediate east coast from near Patrick AFB - Jacksonville, more so once one gets south of the North Brevard County border where it's very touch-n-go. Light winds this morning should eventually become NNE by noon time as the low shifts slowly away from the coast. In doing so, some richer atmospheric mid-level moisture will be advected around the backside of the low into North and perhaps Central Brevard County and all points north to near St. Augustine. At the same time, the pocket of upper level energy will begin to pass over head, with its first heralding been made around the 1-2pm time frame in the form of increased near shore showers mainly north of the Cape. As we work into mid-late afternoon some of these showers will advect south along the coast and possibly reach as far south as Patrick AFB, at the most, in the more prevalent NNE flow which would affect the areas mainly along and east of I-95 before passing offshore near South Brevard. The Weather Channel and the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) are showing a slight chance of thundershowers this morning for the east coast this afternoon and evening, but I do not believe this will occur, but if it does it will be over Volusia / Flagler County. Meanwhile, across South Florida from near West Palm Beach and south other isolated rain showers could form by early afternoon with heating of the day in widely scattered fashion which will move off to the east or ENE and off the east coast as the upper level energy passes overhead that area. Just in noting though, should the area of low pressure depart the coast earlier in the day the chance of rain will go to pretty much zero this afternoon for East Central Florida.

 

TONIGHT: Chance of an isolated shower continues from near Cape Canaveral and points north after dark with South Florida clearing out due to departing upper level energy and loss of daytime heating, combined with drier air impinging on this area first. Again, these showers will be very widely scattered if they do exist at all over the land mass, so most everyone will be dry. If it does rain anywhere today or tonight, it will be brief.

 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: "Dry Front" passes through. Temperatures inland will be cooler mainly because of the drier air in place and not so much due to cold air advection as one would expect in a  true FROPA (frontal passage). Drier air and northerly winds will permit high temperatures inland to reach the mid-80s with lower 80s along the immediate coastal communities. On the synoptic scale, upper level trough will remain over or just to the east of Florida with the mid-level low cutting off near Tennessee. This low will move ENEward during late weekend into early next week and impact the NE states with more rain and wind, somewhere around Pennsylvania-Virginia-New York look to be the most impacted at this time. As this low moves out and weakens high pressure bridges east across the Mid-Atlantic States from the Central Plains while low pressure persists over the Caribbean eastward toward Puerto Rico.

 

Meanwhile, another reinforcing front will be passing across the Central States and enter the Deep South. This front will be the clincher as far as temperatures go for Central Florida by midweek, since it currently appears it might become stationary over Central Florida as it meets the boundary delineated by the lower pressures over the Caribbean. As such, the forecast for Wednesday and beyond becomes a little sketchy, although the impacts for Central and South Central Florida temperature wise appear to be pretty minor either way.

 

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: What will become northwest-north winds tomorrow will veer more toward the NNE-NE by late Monday and eventually NE-ENE along the coast on Wednesday. This will be a long fetch surface flow, and as such rip currents will become an issue as seas offshore become somewhat rough and winds become breezy at times due to the low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north across the entire state. As this flow persists shallow moisture will be advected across the state with an ever increasing chance of low topped showers to develop well offshore which would traverse across much of the state, mainly south of a St. Augustine-Cedar Key line. With such persistent NE-ENE flow in place, temperatures will vary little and begin to modify toward a norm 'central point' especially along the coast, where lows will be in the low 70s with highs near 80 (plus or minus two degrees). In other words, little variability between over night lows and daytime highs, most notable at the coast.

 

Exactly how long this pattern will persist is almost beyond the scope of reason, so in other words...not expecting much change locally for quite sometime beyond late Wednesday. However, further south toward Homestead and the Florida Keys moisture associated with the broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean might be able to creep northward beginning late Monday or Tuesday, and thus increase the chance of showers or perhaps even some thunder down there by mid-late week.

 

TROPICS: Invest 97L has been designated by the NHC (National Hurricane Center) and is located over a relatively broad west-east oriented region east of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, and as one would expect per the discussion above, the Caribbean is being ogled with little affection toward tropical development. Actually, the chance of development there is pretty much zero during the next 48 hours. It appears that invest 97L has two options, either (1) strengthen into a tropical system, perhaps an Otto, which could play games with the forecast for the Southeast Bahamas but pose no threat to the U.S. East Coast; or (2) continue moving west or westnorthwest and never strengthen. Either way, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the southeast Bahamas will see an increase in rains and gusty winds associated with them from time to time at a bare minimum.

 

So are we done with Tropical Concerns for the 2010 Season? Not necessarily so. A shift in the current pattern, which at this time is actually increasing in its complacency this morning will eventually come to an end, but this could take a good 2 weeks to do so. Expect the activity in the Caribbean to persist for quite sometime, and perhaps shift a bet west toward the Yucatan. Development down there could still impact the SE U.S. states later down the line. Hurricane season officially ends November 30th. Climatology shows that in late October storms have formed mostly from the Dominican Republic northwestward to off the Florida East Coast as well as in the SW Caribbean near the Yucatan peninsula, although storms have formed in all areas in between these zones as well.

Early Fall Like Weather For Florida To Persist

(Image: Memories of Stormy Wednesday. Might not see something like this again until 2011)

RECAP: Happy October!  Ex-Storm Nicole is ex-no-more with mid-upper level energy currently impacting New England south to Coastal Virginia as it meets a cold frontal boundary up that way. Further south, and I'm sure some would quickly disagree, it appears there remains a surface reflection  of what was originally Nicole situated between the Western Bahamas and Jupiter Inlet. This area has moved little since late yesterday and from latest forecast models will continue to remain off the Florida East Coast during the upcoming first half of the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front has pushed through the entire state as of early this morning, with a reinforcing boundary pushing through the state as I write, most notable by a drop in dew point temperatures behind this second boundary.  Higher aloft, broad low pressure trough extends down the Eastern seaboard with embedded bubbles of lower pressure within the trough up and down the the Southeast U.S. Coast just offshore. Further NW, high pressure tries to dominate but the trough can't get further east due to another area of high pressure to the east of it.

 

TODAY: Nice weather prevails. Lowest surface pressure at this time over the state noted at Canaveral, indicating the presence of the surface low well off to the SE..with a reading of 29.76" (compare this to surface pressures well above 30.20" when under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft under other circumstances (mainly in the winter). However, with the drier air mass moving in to re-enforce the already drier air than what has been in place all summer, expect skies to remain nearly clear. With drier air in place tonight, morning low temperatures everywhere will be even cooler than this morning. It was 69F on my Canaveral Porch this morning, with PAFB reporting 70F the hour prior (at the same time the porch also showed 70F). Just a little verification check on the accuracy of this Wal-Mart wonder. Winds will be NW-NNW to start the day and gradually veer to N -NNE by or shortly after sunset. High temperatures today in the mid-upper 80s, but with drier air in place it will feel almost like fall especially after 5pm.

 

TOMORROW: As noted above, cooler tomorrow morning most locales, although temperatures along the barrier islands might be the same as this morning if not warmer due to a slightly onshore wind component becoming established blowing across the warm Atlantic waters, mainly north of Jupiter Inlet. Otherwise, another nice day in-store until at least mid afternoon. This is in total negation to what is showing on The Weather Channel here this morning which is stating a 50% chance of rain tomorrow with thunder possible (I'm seeing that now as I type). So, just sayin'...perhaps it won't be so nice?

 

LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND: Clustering this period together with a note of what the models have been trending toward. As mentioned in two earlier posts, it appeared that a strong NNE-NE wind regime would develop placing the coastal communities in a windy and possibly wet regime. This no longer appears will be the case. Each consecutive run of the NAM and GFS show a brief period of concentrated rain somewhere from JAX to Melbourne working toward Miami with time, but have shifted this event to occur from Early Saturday now to early Sunday. Additionally, strong surface winds are now no longer reflected to occur, ever. If this trend continues, we might not see any rain at all, anywhere...except perhaps extreme S. Florida with time in association with tropical activity in the Caribbean interacting with a surface boundary. But that would be many days away should that manifest, well beyond the scope of believability. Still awaiting completion of model runs as of this time, but for now will go with what the 'trends' have been as well as what the ECMWF has been indicating since last night.

 

As such, believe the chance of rain will wane even more with time in later model runs. If it's going to rain at all it will be late Saturday (mostly after dark/early Sunday). And this would be spotty and light at worst anywhere from Jax southwest to Naples. Beyond Sunday, another front could enter the picture as we head into later next week reinforcing the dry air already in place with no sign of rain on the horizon for quite some time. Any modification of the air mass along the east coast due to an onshore wind component appears will be too shallow for generation of showers, although can't throw out quite yet the chance of a cloud deck which would only put a damper on one's outlook on life, but not on outdoor activities.  A lot depends on what occurs with the generalized area of low pressure residing off the SE U.S. Coast and over the Bahamas. Should this area somehow shift to the west, the picture changes entirely for Florida...and this will be reflected in upcoming posts. The NAM does indicate it could come closer to the coast in the mid-levels by Sunday, but with little affect other than clouds before it lifts off to the NNE.

 

TROPICS: Latest NHC discussions and graphics indicate two areas of concern located in the western Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Any development in either area should be of no concern to the continental United States, as either one or both of these areas weakens with time, or any development worthy of intensification should be extracted toward the N and eventually NE and out of the picture. Still need to watch the Caribbean though as we head out in time. Eventually, the pattern over the continent will shift with yet another front working through which would open the gates for a system to move north toward the state. One could speculate one way or the other as to whether anything will occur, but for now it's purely speculation either way and thus will not elaborate further until something becomes even close to speculate upon realistically.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued For the Treasure Coast - More Threats Possible Elsewhere

(Image: 7-8" rain producing storm over Port St. John. Note the mirror glass water. Wind at this time was light from the east. This is looking Northwest)

TROPICAL UPDATE: As of 5AM the tropical storm watch for Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin Counties has been upgraded to a warning. A warning means that sustained tropical storm force winds are likely within the warned area. Further north, although Brevard County is not in the warned area, storm force gusts are possible in the heaviest of storms that could occur, mainly east of I-95. North of Brevard the concern quickly wanes due to the forecast track of TD16. More on this newly developed scenario is briefly discussed below under "TODAY".

 

NOW/LAST NIGHT: The storm system that generated a rainfall total of over 7" in Cocoa with possibly higher amounts toward Port St. John and lower amounts such as 3.52" in Cape Canaveral with slightly lesser amounts into South Brevard moved offshore and thinned out, with the last gasp dissipating near Cocoa Beach late last night. From that point on, a discernible baroclinic zone was established stretching from Cape Canaveral toward Port Charlotte on the SW Coast. One normally would not find such conditions this far south, as this is usually a mid-Atlantic to New England type synoptic set up. But given the depth to which the mid-upper level trough has dug over the past two days into the Deep South, we almost went "Summer Turned Winter" over night (did you see that Marianna, Florida yesterday morning was down to 52F degrees while the east coast was nearly 80 at sunrise?).

 

This zone sank south over night to a Naples to Vero Beach line. As such, all precipitation over night has been along and south of this zone. Meanwhile, TD 16 is located about 360 miles south of Cape Canaveral or 300 miles SSW of Ft. Pierce and is moving NNE at 14mph. The system appears to be becoming better organized. The strong convection that has been pounding Jamaica well to the east of the storm center has increased more toward the west or closer to the center of circulation. The system will cross Cuba during the morning and early afternoon and approach south Florida shortly thereafter.

 

TODAY: There is much hype locally for East Central Florida as events unfold (I'm hearing it on TV as I type), but there is a fly in the ointment. As noted, there is a baroclinic zone oriented South of Brevard County which is situated SSW from just south of Sebastian toward Ft. Myers. All precipitation over night and early this morning has been occurring south of this zone. So that's where we stand as of 6AM. Believe there is likely a coastal trough established just offshore as well, which as the sun rises and some heating ensues (and not much will be required)  will begin to retrograde toward the coast as early as 9AM. This seems more assured by early afternoon as the depression crosses Cuba and approaches S. Florida and surface winds gain a solid SE-SSE trajectory along the coast from the Cape and points south. The result would be something similar to what occurred yesterday, but probably not nearly as dynamic as that event as far as rainfall totals are concerned. (please refer to "*Important Note" below for disclaimer).

 

Rain has moved into the entire warned area as of this writing, and has just begun to penetrate extreme SE Brevard County near sunrise. I'm inclined to believe that given a few hours of daylight and backing of the surface winds, these rains will either translate onshore further north and/or simply fill in along a zone from Titusville SSW to Port Charlotte (or between Orlando and Melbourne south to Lake Okeechobee). Any storm activity could acquire rotation from noon on), particularly along the immediate coast from Cape Canaveral south where convergence is maximized along the coastal trough/baroclinic zone. This means that we might have some more tornado warnings again today. There were only a few warnings yesterday, and that will probably be the case again today. However, even if no tornado warning is issued, these cells could translate downward momentum to the surface and produce stronger/tropical storm force wind gusts along or near the coast outside the Tropical Storm Warning area, primarily east of I-95. The threat for rotating cell formation will wane quickly during the time this system, which at this point will likely, but not necessarily be named Nicole, exits the Florida East Coast.  Outside of this minimal threat, the greater threat will be heavy rainfall totals where cells train repeatedly or stack up over the same area.

 

As TD16 crosses the Florida Straits during the early afternoon it may be named Nicole. This is not really too important for landlubber though, since a majority of these winds will be east of the center of circulation (off shore). Given the fast motion the system will acquire as it starts to be united with the deep latitudinal trough digging down the U.S. East Coast, the system could pass across the land area of SE Florida with little affect on storm strength. It may in fact, be at its strongest as it passes east of Brevard County early this evening on its approach to the Carolinas before it become extra-tropical. Just because the system will become extra-tropical is neither here nor there though, as the storm systems interaction with the frontal boundary further north from the eastern Carolinas to New England will generate a much greater wind/rain hazard than Florida will ever know.

 

In any case, there is the possibility that what we'll call Nicole (give or take 5 mph of winds to make the difference between depression or storm), could make a few wobbles on a more northerly track during its crossing of SE Florida which would mean the system would exit off the east coast somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Vero Beach. Hence, the watch was upgraded to a warning.

 

(*IMPORTANT NOTES: (1) It would be irresponsible not to mention that the weather over the majority of Brevard/Orange/Seminole Counties might not be nearly as unaccommodating as the official forecast would lead one to believe. Namely, if the coastal trough / baroclinic zone does not retreat from its current location or only does so to a small degree, these areas could remain not rain free entirely, but would have significantly less hostile weather conditions than what we are being led to believe. Given the current synoptic scale set up is very rare for this time of year over Florida (where near winter meets the tropics), tremendous uncertainty on my part is admitted on how to deal with this situation). I'm picturing a Christmas card with Santa wearing a Speedo relaxing in a hammock stretched between two swaying palm trees).

(2) To take the level of uncertainty to up another notch, it is possible that should nasty weather develop, north of the warned area, it might be restricted to solely the intracoastal or even just the region from Cape Canaveral north to the Pads A and B. Should this be the case, activity of intensity worth noting would be limited to occur between 2-8pm today.)

 

TONIGHT: Conditions will rapidly be on the improving side as the storm makes its closest pass off the Space Coast. It may also be beginning to develop it's greatest strengthening phase as it passes the Cape over the Gulf Stream before making a second landfall in Central South Carolina by early Thursday.

 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY: After  a slight chance of showers early Thursday, the remaining period will be quite pleasant with drier atmospheric levels (lower PWATS) and early fall conditions.

 

SUNDAY: The system will be out of everyone ones hair, but what evil lurks in the minds of the breeding season. High pressure to the north will combine with the continued simmering area of low pressure in the Caribbean to produce very breezy conditions along the coast from Ft. Pierce to Jacksonville. As these winds shift from NNE-NE-ENE that could usher in a shallow layer of moisture to the coastal communities. This moisture, combined with passage across the warm Gulf stream with steady winds could manifest as low topped ocean showers anywhere along the coast with breezy conditions for a number of days. Some minor beach erosion could become a concern, mainly north of Daytona Beach.

 

Meanwhile, the Caribbean won't be on its own. It's looking more like the forces from the Tropical Pacific as well as the Tropical Atlantic could be meeting up for generation of not 1, not 2, but perhaps three more systems during the first three weeks of October. At this time, the Bahamas appear to be most likely to be first affected by anything that would form. However, as we head later in time some transitions over the eastern portion of the continental U.S. will abet to generate a synoptic scale weather pattern that would result a tropical threat to somewhere in the NW Gulf, most likely Florida.

 

 

POST 2: Tropical Depression 16 and Local Weather (East Florida)

(Image: NAM FCST for 2pm Wednesday)

SYNOPSIS: Frontal boundary has pushed south to roughly a Daytona Beach to Brooksville line and come to an abrupt halt. In deed, rain echoes shown on radar are not penetrating north of North Brevard County along the east coast and remain in place the past hour. During the past 3 hours atmospheric moisture throughout has increased markedly in the upper levels over Central Florida. Meanwhile, TD 16 has been proclaimed and is located 560 NM SSW of Cape Canaveral, FL.  The system is moving NNE. A tropical storm watch/warning has been issued for the counties south of Sebastian Inlet to Miami. The official forecast track takes the system offshore very close to Boynton Beach tomorrow.

 

Meanwhile, the mid-upper level trough continues in place to the NNW into the Florida Panhandle with a speed max  and associated vorticity plummeting south along the backside of this trough toward Southern Alabama. East Central Florida remains in a somewhat volatile environment in a battle between becoming fully tropical and maintaining a more continental weather regime in place. Per the increase in moisture, it appears the tropics are beginning to win out as the dominant player in this battle of wits, but it'll take the rest of the daylight hours and into this evening to complete the transition (if it ever actually does).

 

TODAY: In the interim, an outflow boundary from convection well off the Central Florida Coast has moved onshore. As such, the surface winds over East Brevard, at a minimum, have switched from light from the south to gusty from the East.... These winds are being accompanied by increased cloud coverage and radar returns and radar has really filled in, with a well defined line of convection stretching across the entire state from Port Charlotte on the SW Coast to Cape Canaveral.  Additional storms are filling in south of this line with heating of the day. Thunder booms now.

Jumping to tonight and tomorrow:

 

NOTES: The latest GFS and NAM forecast models are not in sync with the official forecast track of this system. They insist on this system remaining mostly as a hybrid type entity, and as such the results are much different as far as Central Florida is concerned. I've included an image for the system location at 18z (2pm) tomorrow as forecast by the North American Model. Note that the center of lowest pressure is located near the Cape. What is hard to decipher from this image is that there might be another center further south toward Indian River County.  What occurs is that the system, being that it wouldn't be fully tropical in nature, begins to interact with the trough to the north and west of Brevard and begins to become absorbed within the "mean trough' feature. As such, the current NNE track continues..with perhaps a slight turn even more toward the north during the 'absorption process'.

 

If indeed this system follows the track followed by these models, weather conditions north of the official forecast to Jacksonville will be significantly different from what is currently officially being announced. This is just a heads up...and not an argument. Thus, remain abreast to your most favored media outlet for details.

 

In either case, at this time the winds won't be too much an issue, although they could be noticeably gusty, especially in rainstorms beginning over night tonight. More so further south of Sebastian Inlet to Miami in the watched and warned areas. Close scrutiny as to what will occur once the system comes fully ashore over extreme South Florida tomorrow morning might be necessary. Again, refer to the latest statements from the NWS or the Hurricane Center for the official forecast.

 

And in continuity with today's earlier post. I believe there is a very remote chance of rotating storms, from near Palm Beach to Daytona (and potentially further north) along the immediate coast well prior to the more direct impacts from this system. This threat will lower as we work toward mid morning tomorrow.

 

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES: Not so fast, another bag of tricks at hand. Once this system impacts the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina to New England in rapid fashion, high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Region in its wake while the Caribbean continues to simmer with rejuvenated vigor. The GFS I believe is suffering for an overdose of steroids, with multiple low pressure systems being generated down there, all of which train across the Bahamas for some time to come in the future. But tossing this aside, of more immediate interest to East Coast Floridians may be an increasing pressure gradient between this high pressure area to the north and the low down south. With those two mechanisms at work, ENE-NE winds could become steadily moderate to strong (breezy) for a prolonged period of time. The availability of moisture at this time remains in question...but the two combined could make for a windy and wet weather regime for the immediate east coast from Jacksonville to Ft. Pierce beginning Sunday near JAX and encompassing the rest of the coast by late Monday. The GFS picked up on this two days ago and has been consistent with both the winds and potential for rain showers of stratiform nature. Perhaps just flat out cloudy conditions...perhaps not. Point being, erosion could become an issue if this regime lasts for too long. Again, another heads up.

 

ANOTHER TOSS IN THE POT: Forgot to mention, the GFS is showing a strong tropical system to cross South or Central Florida in about two weeks, after it meanders around the Caribbean for several days moving this way and that. Accuracy for any such occurrence that far out is pretty close to negligible. Point is though, that the tropics won't be done quite yet. Not thru the first two weeks of October at least.

 

 

POST 1: Tropical Storm Develop Much More Likely - Rotating Storm Structures for East Central Florida?

(Image: Total Rainfall forecast for 2am - 8am Wednesday shows max over Brevard County and SE Florida)

OBSERVATION ONLY: Breaking down the details very early this Tuesday and monitoring trends in RUC Model updates.

The current observation is noted. Surface front extends from Jacksonville to Tampa. Mid-upper level support for this feature has moved NNE from Alabama yesterday to West Virginia and continues north toward NW Pennsylvania. Likewise, vorticity maxima are plunging south down the backside of the trough through Wisconsin prior to sunrise with expectation this energy will penetrate as far south as Southern Alabama by early Wednesday morning. The result will be to reinforce the the mid-level trough in its current position and thus prevent further eastward progression of the surface front as its southern tip skims close to North Brevard and then becomes cut off as cyclonic circulation from the south takes the leading role. Meanwhile, Central Florida will be influenced by negative vorticity advection early on this Tuesday morning during the following transition:

 

1) Area of low pressure with a 60 percent chance of becoming a closed surface circulation over the Western Caribbean and its  peripheral circulation begins to drift north toward Cuba. ***UPDATE: This has just changed to 80 percent***. We could have a Nicole on our hands by the next update from the Hurricane Center. But I digress,

 

South Florida was never affected by the trough and front, and thus have been in continuous ESE-SE flow all along, unlike folks from Central Florida and points north. Current water vapor loops and surface observations indicate that South Central and Central Florida will be encompassed with the low level circulatory pattern between 11am-1pm today directly related to the developing system to the south. Meaning, surface winds will shift from SSW-S to a more SE-ESE component. Meanwhile,  the mid-upper level features described above reinforce the wind aloft at those levels maintaining the current SW direction overhead.

 

2) Transition of these two wind field parameters occurs primarily between 11am -4pm during the time of maximum surface heating, although cloud cover could be a big factor in damping out the overall convective nature of shower activity from what could otherwise be a more potent situation. During this time frame, as the outer parameter of the cyclonic circulation from the south enters Central Florida, positive vorticity advection is ushered in from the south.

 

The combination of low and upper level vorticity, low level directional wind shear, and influx of even greater moisture from what currently exists could harbor resultant rapidly developing small, but rotating storm cells. The affect will be maximized along the East Coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ormond Beach.

 

Believe the main affect of this, should it occur, would be strong, gusty winds associated with fast moving, small thunderstorms...but circulations reaching the ground can't be ruled out. This covers Tuesday afternoon, now what about over night tonight?

 

AFTER MIDNIGHT: The NAM and GFS continue to support the first vorticity maximum directly related to the Tropical System (by this time Nicole?) to impact Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia County between the hours of 1am - 9am Wednesday morning as further development continues. As noted, by this time we might have a named system which would add fuel to the fire. The HPC has forecast a precipitation bulls eye for mostly Brevard County during this time frame of over 1" of rain, so they must be seeing something. Believe this rainfall will come in the form of convective storms containing brief periods of heavy rain rather than a solid, steady state rain. Conditions do not look as ideal as yesterday morning for rotating storm cell structures, but should the system approaching from the south indeed wrap up as much or more than anticipated the weather radios might be blaring with Special Weather Statements or warnings while most folks are in bed.

 

SPECIAL NOTE: Should Invest 96L develop into a named system, the timing on the over night situation tonight might still occur, but could be a full 12 hours later, at least, than current thinking. Thus, this could take place  during the afternoon on Wednesday. Additionally, note that this is not information from official resources. Namely, I'm thinking out loud. Just providing a heads up.

 

P.S.: Should the system to the south develop into a named system and strengthen toward hurricane intensity, all forecasts for the state will be blown out of the water as far as wind speeds and precipitation coverage are concerned. Based on track forecasts from multiple models I've flipped thru this morning, should a system develop, the tracks are most clustered from South of Naples toward West Palm Beach, with 2 or 3 others going as far north as New Smyrna Beach on the East Coast. (opting out the other tracks taking the system toward Texas for now...but that possibility has been indicated).

Florida to Hatteras May Need To Brace For Big Rains, Possibly Much More

SYNOPSIS: Surface low at noon positioned over extreme N. Georgia with attendant surface trough (cold front) extending south into the Gulf across the Florida Panhandle. This low is located within a much larger area of generalized low pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes south to all of the Western Caribbean Sea. Upper level cut off low is located a bit to the west of the surface low over northern Alabama. Another area of low pressure in the Caribbean appears to be trying to organize per the deep convection occurring down there. Surface low will move NNE during the course of the day as the upper level supporting system begins to open up and toggle NNE as well. The surface front will be pressed slowly east as this action occurs. Latest KSC sounding indicates an increase in precipitable water values over East Central Florida in the atmosphere aloft since early morning, and now reads 1.81", with a convective temperature of only 83 degrees. Early morning shower activity that formed off shore moved off quickly to the NNE, and new generation of showers has begun over the immediate coast near Indian River and St. Lucie Counties. Motion in general is to the north. Thus, parts of Brevard County might be seeing some rainfall between 2-4pm (for starters), with possible thunder and strong gusty winds. These storms are moving fairly steadily, so impacts for any one shower should be relatively short-lived. In the short term, look out Brevard County as I now write!

 

TODAY: The front will try to move further east into tonight but have a hard time making much additional eastward progression as the parent low pressure system moves NNE and the surface feature loses its support. Ongoing convergence along and ahead of the front has warranted an alert for severe weather from North Florida to the Carolinas. For the most part, East Florida will be sunny today, save for the fact that there are some showers further south at this time, which I'd expect to increase in coverage and intensity as we work into the late afternoon hour. Shower motion will be from the S to SSW.

 

TONIGHT: Convergence ahead of the front should continue over North Florida with some of this activity expanding into Central portions after sunset toward after midnight. Thunder is quite possible in these showers/storms as would some gusty winds be expected both within and near the vicinity of this activity.

 

TOMORROW: Much of tomorrow will be similar to today but with more clouds and showers / thunderstorms likely to develop ahead of the surface front which will have gone stationary very close to a St. Augustine to Brooksville line. In the meantime, the Caribbean will be a witches brew of TNT just waiting for someone to light a match. By late tomorrow, under the premise that thunderstorm activity will be much more likely that today due to the proximity of the trough combined with a booster shot of moisture from the Caribbean, all eyes will most assuredly be Western or Central Cuba as the first of what may be several; storm systems makes head way into or very close to Florida. These systems will be on the approach from the South so naturally it will be the Keys and 'southern tip peninsula' to experience the first affects, particularly by mid-late afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY: Over night into Wednesday is the big question mark in the darkening skies. We could end up waking up Wednesday morning with a rapidly strengthening tropical storm on our hands. Or maybe not. Point is, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises". There is one model that actually indicates a storm or perhaps hurricane could form a take a similar track to that of Charley 2004, from near Ft-Meyers-Napes on the SW coast to near Melbourne to Daytona on the East Coast during the course of the day. On the other hand, the other models agree that the energy from the Caribbean won't be so nearly focused on any on point, but rather widely spread out in the form of piece meal 850mb lobes of vorticity, producing periods of heavy rain fall. Should the latter be the case, there has been a trend over the past 12 hours to shift the impacted region in Florida east with each consecutive run. With the final run this morning indicating that it would be the Naples-Ormond Beach zone, east of the surface front that would be most impacts. Brevard would fall right on the cusp of either drought or drown! Take your pick.

 

Another item of note is the potential for severe weather activity ahead of either one of the aforementioned scenarios. The system as a whole, whether it be a concentrated bundle named Nicole, or an un-named cyclonic blob, will be preceded for a 3-6 hour period of time by a mid-level speed max over head East Central Florida as the Caribbean system gains dominance over the entire synoptic scenario. As such, and this is very iffy considering the number of uncertainties already on the plate (which hopefully you have been able to realize), the possibilities of land falling, rotating cells could become an increasing possibility sometime in the wee hours of Wednesday toward mid-morning this day. Rotating cells equates to the possibility of severe weather in the form of a brief tornado or land falling waterspout. This is a worst cast scenario, but given the level of uncertainty this bears watching. The main reason I wanted to at least mention this is because the timing at which this appears most likely this would occur...that being while everyone is asleep. So take that and do with it what you will; hoping one has an on-alert weather radio.

 

Should the Nicole situation develop, well then, we have a hurricane passing over South and Central Florida. Wouldn't that just be too much?! This really doesn't seem very likely though. On the other hand, per the second scenario...heavy rains seem a given for Southeast Florida with increasing doubt as to rainfall amounts once one gets north of the Cape. But to end this portion of the post with some sense of finality, best bet now is to expect a lot of rain from St. Augustine- Daytona-just west of Orlando-Charlotte on the west coast. Other portions of the state north and west of this line might remain close to dry.

 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Whatever happens Wednesday, things should change significantly by noon Thursday as 'the system' impacts the Outer Banks on its way to New England. It appears now that there will be another system of possibly much larger impacts going into next week to come out of the Caribbean. Keep attuned!

Could ECFL Drought End in a BIG Way?!!

(Could the end to the extreme drought in Brevard County be coming to and end? This anticipated rainfall depiction is from the HPC forecast for this upcoming week)

SYNOPSIS: Things so far pretty much on schedule in the short term. 6AM KSC Sounding depicts the retreating ridge axis overhead at roughly 850mb level (6000 ft) with light SW flow developing above there. In essence, things continue to change since yesterday with more in store. PWAT at 1.65" (down from this time yesterday) with the driest of air in the column located within a somewhat broad, critical mid-lower level range for rain shower development. Hence the lack of precipitation this hour across Central Florida. Meanwhile, mid-upper level troughing down the Mississippi River Valley and attendant surface trough (cold front) reside to the north and just west of the state. The mid-level low will sink further south and a bit east during the course of the day and begin to cut off tonight.  At the surface, the ridge extends across the Florida - Georgia border this morning, but will be cut eroded as upper level support for this feature shifts further east and the aforementioned trough progresses further south during the day. As such, by day's end we will be under an entirely new bag of tricks from what we've endured for several weeks now and are still experiencing at sunrise this Sunday morning. Elsewhere, tremendously huge area of low pressure encompasses the Western Caribbean and across Central America, Honduras, and the Bay of Campeche. Locally, of surprise is the thunderstorms over the Florida Keys this morning. Coverage appears much stronger and extensive than was being considered by the local office down there; however, activity was anticipated. Good show guys.

 

TODAY: Very nice day in store for the start. The sky was SO BLUE this morning. Like none I've seen for quite some time. Winds were light and variable with cloud motions aloft from West to East and anomalous  rain echoes of unknown origin (not real) moving from SW to NE. The atmosphere over Central Florida, for the most part, requires continued modification for any rain to co-exist under current conditions. As such, most of the day will be quite pleasant. At least until early afternoon. For now, will run with a 'worst case scenario', which is not at all consistent with current official resource proclamation. In keeping with yesterday's schedule, the best chance of rainfall today some of which will be in the form of thunder, will occur toward very late afternoon through late evening from the Cape and points north as the ridge is finally cut off to the north and deeper SW flows ensues ahead of the low pressure over the Deep South. Central area activity should be pretty isolated though (even in this worst case scenario). Some of the storms north of I-4 could be strong, although I am a bit leery concerning coverage over this region. It might be much lower than current 'official' thinking (and as indicated by overnight NAM/GFS runs). South Florida continues for one more full day of what has been status quo for quite some time...in fact, extreme SE Florida might never feel the impacts from the trough at all (ever), at least not south of the South Shores of Lake O. SW Interior and coastal areas could see afternoon and evening storms though, but under entirely different circumstances.

 

TOMORROW: Monday might actually appear to the innocent by-stander to be like a normal summer day; one in which there are afternoon and evening thunderstorms which would favor the east side of the state north of West Palm - Port Charlotte line, but anyone/anywhere in the state will have a shot. However, in reality, the synoptical set up will be nothing like those of summer for the most part...at least not mid-summer. Thunderstorms/rain showers possible by mid-afternoon to late evening once again. Likelihood of such will be greater on Monday than today though from Vero Beach north beginning mid afternoon (earlier than today).

 

TUESDAY-BEYOND: This looks like the 'make or break' day, with a 'wet pattern ramification' should things pan out as advertised by the NAM and GFS. First to look at what is being implied. It is suggested that although the vorticity ('energy') with the Deep South low lifts off to the northeast which would otherwise put a damper on rain chances, the area of low pressure to our south becomes joined at the hip with the continental low pressure area in (to my mind) a very questionable fashion. That is why this time frame remains highly uncertain. The result is that deep tropical moisture surges northward across the peninsula. Will this occur? If so, current forecasts being advertised could very well be, well, "blown out of the water". I think what we are hearing now over the media is the underlying need to stick with persistence until certainty in the forecast can be made clearer. So heads up!

 

Perhaps no big changes are in store at all, which totally justifies not crying wolf. On the other hand, should this second transformation occur the flood gates will be wide open to the peninsula for several low pressure disturbances to cross South and Central Florida from Wednesday on (for up to a week). Thus, "Could the Drought End in a BIG Way?!!".

 

Upon perusing through the official Hydrological Prediction Center's website, they seem to be favoring the GFS forecast, as described above (and from which the attached image was obtained). That forecast opens the gates. We could be talking a weekly rainfall total in the several inch amounts from the period of this coming Wednesday through next Wednesday. OR...well, you know what "OR" means. (OR-not). But our waiting period concerning when we'll finally get some respectable rainfall over extreme East Central Florida might soon be over...all this leads to the TROPICS.

 

TROPICS: What forecast mayhem lurks in the minds of models. Models are the forecasters friend as well their worst enemy...so bitter sweet.

I'm disregarding what Matthew was and is now (a remnant low for the most part). However, it's that area combined with much of the Western Caribbean that continues to be on high alert in the forecasting world. Upon viewing all the models at hand this morning, there appears to be developing a consensus that there will not be a major hurricane affecting the state. A lot is contingent upon what happens this week. If the flood gates do indeed open, all the energy down there will arrive over the state 'piece meal' in the form of perhaps a depression...or several un-named low pressures areas of which would contain gobs of atmospheric moisture. On the other hand, that area down there could slowly organize over several days and drift slowly north as a single entity to encompass the entire state for quite some time...which would take a bit longer to arrive but with similar results. Then again, maybe it will never get here until the current trough now developing over the Deep South completely pulls out of the picture...which at this time is essentially undeterminable. I'm not even wasting my breathe with what all the models are depicting. But will go so far as to narrow it down to two scenarios.

 

The first one being what has been just been described (and questioned a bit while doing so) in the preceding paragraphs. The other scenario is that the energy associated with Matthew maintains, morphs, and drifts back offshore...moving around a common center and going nowhere fast. But just to illustrate an increasingly common scenario, at least from over night model runs, whatever goes on down there ends on most models with a large 850mb low near western Cuba by mid-week which has progressed toward the NNE (and South or SE Florida).  Will it ever arrive at all?

 

Now I know why main has hair; it's for pulling.

 

This is liking reading "Gone With the Wind". Will the nonsense ever end, and when it does..will Florida be "GWTW"? Probably not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Eyes on the Tropics

SYNOPSIS: Western fringe of high pressure over the southeast states lingers one more day as developing mid-upper level trough encompasses the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean into the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico, highlighted by Tropical Storm Matthew near La Ceiba Honduras. The storm is 'forecast' to eventually weaken over the weekend and become absorbed in a monsoonal low pressure area expected to form over Central America. We'll see. (do you detect a hint of uncertainty here? See more).

 

TODAY: Latest short term model (RUC) matched with the XMR (KSC) sounding shows the ridge remains over South/Central Florida, with the axis at roughly 15,000 Ft located overhead where winds are calm. Radar is showing very light rain returns moving from SW to NE. Believe these may not be reaching the ground for the most part, since their motion is SW to NE and would be a manifest of denser cloud patches associated at or just above the ridge axis aloft. The RUC indicates during the course of the day that these winds could lower to approximately 8,000 ft entering the mean steering current for late afternoon thunderstorm range; however, winds below that level (to the surface) remain solidly steady from the east for the most part. Atmosphere not as moist this morning as late yesterday with a PWAT at 1.80". Skies are mostly cloudy with a few patches of partly cloudy skies across the peninsula. Cloud motion is weak from SW-NE, namely with the mid-upper level clouds. Once low level cumulus clouds start to form they will move steadily from east to west.

 

Clouds may keep afternoon high temperatures down a few degrees today and preclude ample heating for thunderstorm generation until late when a boost will be provided by sea breeze convergence on the west side with a few pockets of Lake/Sea Breeze interactions thrown in. Wouldn't expect coverage to be very high at all though (i.e., would be isolated) and well west of I-95. However, with the winds aloft gradually becoming SW with time by late at lower levels, some of this activity may propagate back toward the coast from the Cape and points north in the early-late evening in the form of light or perhaps moderate rain fall.

 

SUNDAY: The ridge begins to break down even more, and might complete the transition after sunset. As such, similar conditions as today with a chance of thunder reaching the coast primarily from near Melbourne and points north by late afternoon. It should be noted that South Florida will be under going a completely different set of circumstances, most notably that the more westerly steering component does not become established down there. Moisture will be plentiful though, so what they will incur is a somewhat modified version of what has been occurring in the past few days...but perhaps less of it.

 

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Somewhat of a summer like pattern to prevail as a cold front associated with the deepening trough (and eventual cut-off low) over the Deep South becomes the playing factor for North and Central Florida early next week. This would be a summer pattern favoring the east side of the state for late afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers from West Palm Beach north to Jax. Cloud cover during the early portions of these days will be a factor in timing of what/when/where activity will occur, thus these days will require closer scrutiny on a daily basis.  At this time, there are hints that a well organized area of thunderstorms, and nearly a squall line of sorts for North Florida, could push into the panhandle which would push east and south to as far south as Daytona Beach or even extreme N. Brevard by Monday night. After which it should wash out with remnants lifted off to the northeast. Thus, we could see an up tick on thunderstorm potential/strength and/or coverage late Monday.

 

BEYOND: As we head toward the later portions of the week into next weekend much of the weather over South and Central Florida will be contingent upon what occurs over the western Caribbean which is a tremendously huge unknown, thus it would behoove the forecaster to go into details concerning the whys and where rain is most likely to occur, or for that matter, not to occur. If indeed, the organized line of convection does manifest and maintains itself into Central Florida, any remnant surface boundary left further complicates matters. Thus, we'll leave it at there 'should' be a continued chances of showers or at least cloud periods, with thunder quite possible.

 

TROPICS: Not going to go too deep into the tropical Caribbean at this time, but will illustrate why. Tropical Storm Matthew to drift toward the S. Yucatan region over the weekend and meander over this region. Models continue to indicate that it will either retrograde back east into the waters, or at least one, if not two, more low pressure areas could form any where from south of the Dominican Republic to South/Central Cuba. Models from this yet to occur event provide eventual solutions of a named storm Nicole moving north and either up the far eastern Gulf off the Florida West coast to further east just off the Florida SE Coast, contingent upon both the origination point and the timing coincident with the passing of a upper level trough to the north. Further down the road, the GFS latest solution actually takes a Nicole around the entire periphery of the Gulf with it ending back where it starts in the Bay of Honduras while another system which would be Otto, develops and moves quickly toward the NE over the Bahamas. This would leave Florida in between both systems with little impacts. But that's just one model describing what is already apparently becoming a very complex, yet to develop, situation. Other models indicate one solid storm approaching the Tampa Area...and another takes just one system near the SE tip of the state. Point is, this scenario could be a never ending story for the next two weeks as alluded to in the previous post. And to add fuel to the fire, the timing off the overall broad-brush picture might be delayed to even further out in time, as often occurs at this time of year. For you see, we not only have to monitor not only what is already an ambiguous situation in the Caribbean (as just described), but also what sort of developments occur closer to home over the continental United States during this time frame. How they eventually interact, whatever 'they' may be, will determine the outcome...which could be anywhere from late next week to late the week after that (or even beyond).

First Full Fall Day Ushers In Somewhat Frenetic Florida Forecasts

Image: A Harvest Moon occurred nearly coincident with the start of fall at 11:09pm last night. The next time these two events will be so closely tied together will be in 2029.

 

SYNOPSIS: Broad expanse of high pressure extends across the Atlantic Ocean into the S.E. U.S. Low pressure across the Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and into the SW Gulf is flayed out south of the high pressure creating a deep, easterly flow component to the wind field.

Invest 95L  within this area of low pressure in the South-Central Caribbean, well south of the Dominican Republic, is becoming organized as it moves generally west. This area is part of a tropical wave that was generated from an African off shoot, the other part of which became Julia; that storm remains loitering well off in the Eastern Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture over Central and South Florida on the increase producing sporadic rain showers, most concentrated over the Keys at time of writing. Other widely dispersed showers making it to land from Daytona to Miami. This moisture field is working north today. Elsewhere, a trough is passing across Minnesota this morning generating a flood/severe storm threat over the upper Mid-West region this morning and this afternoon. This area will move east and be replaced by a second one as we head into late Friday. Believe it or not, it is the second one that will be the indicative harbinger of things to come way down here in Florida as we head into the beginning of next week! So watch the weather in Minnesota, because what hits there will eventually be affecting this state indirectly in the days to come. Also, I haven't heard mention of this anywhere, but there is a weak upper level low over the central  Gulf of Mexico that I first noted late yesterday which is evident on satellite imagery. The NAM model did not pick up on this feature very well, but the GFS nailed it on the 300-200mb analyses. This is a seemingly insignificant feature in the short term, but in the long term could contribute to the long term eventualities of what will occur as the second Minnesota short wave digs southward through the weekend. Just thought I'd throw that out there for good measure.

 

TODAY-TONIGHT: Nothing new as far as temperatures or winds at the surface and aloft. They are all generally from the east. The only change is the gradual increase of PWAT (precipitable water) values. As such, the chance of rain showers passing overhead today over Central Florida will increase just a bit, but more so from Vero Beach and points south, especially by later this afternoon. The depth of moisture isn't overly tremendous, but low level availability of what is there is enough to generate showers as far north as Ormond Beach, just more so the further south one goes as amount and depth within the atmosphere increases. As such, best chances of rain today south of Vero Beach at almost anytime...with detectable chances further north with time, especially late. Probably not much in the thunder category due to warm air aloft, although some could occur over the far interior and western portions of South-South Central Florida late in the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY: By sunrise, PWAT values over Central Florida will have climbed to levels we have not seen for quite some time now from near New Smyrna Beach south. The moisture will have already been in place from Jupiter Inlet and south for a good 12 hour previous. Moisture levels will sustain themselves throughout the day, with perhaps a greater depth to the moisture field from Jupiter Inlet - Ormond Beach and west across the state by late in the day and into Saturday. As such, rain chances tomorrow will be higher for Central Florida than for today, but thunder not anticipated. Not an all day rain event by any means. Just more clouds in the low and mid levels, with more showers coming in off the Atlantic. Easterly flow will prevail, but begin to weaken over night Friday into Saturday. Showers on Friday could occur any time day or night. Just look toward the east from whilst they will arrive.

 

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Already stepping into 'dangerous forecast territory' from Saturday and beyond, so will go with the broad brush for South and Central Florida. It looks as though the deepest moisture will be over Central Florida rather than further south over the weekend. Both the GFS and NAM are highlighting the highest concentration or likelihood of showers, some heavy, from Sebastian Inlet to Daytona Beach along the immediate east coast (very generally east of I-4). The GFS kicks it up a notch with a vorticity max riding up the Florida East Coast over night Friday and lingering just offshore through all of Saturday and into Sunday. Would expect considerable cloudiness on Saturday as a result with continued east winds, but less in strength than what we've been seeing the past week. The potential for some of this activity to active lightning will increase as we work into the latter portion of the weekend, but can't discount 'ocean thunder' on Saturday.  Rain chances should be highest on Saturday as will rainfall totals as storm motion should slow considerably. Mid-Upper level winds to wane as a break in the overall synoptic scale pattern which has been in place for a few weeks finally breaks down. That second system alluded to near Minnesota begins to drop south along the Mississippi River Valley toward the Deep South and ridge axis makes the break, placing all of Florida in weak pressure fields, nearly a COL in fact. And one that is filled with moisture at that.

 

MONDAY-BEYOND: Chance of having thunderstorms over South and Central Florida increases as moisture laden steering changes from what was easterly becomes nearly calm to now S-SW. Temperatures remain status quo with lows in the mid 70s inland to nearly 80 east of US1. Perhaps a few degrees cooler than days of recent due to weakening of the easterly gradient flow, hence less advection of warm ocean water temperatures during the over night. Highs in the upper 80s to very low 90s. As such, the coast could see upper 70s for a change across the boards which would be a pleasant change. Now, the BEYOND portion will be briefly discussed in the TROPICS portion, since that is what the 'future' will be all about for the entire state next week.

 

TROPICS: As noted, we have Invest 95L in the South Central Caribbean. A lot of emphasis has been placed (from what I've heard and read) on this system becoming the next depression or storm. Upon review of the forecast tropical model plots, as well as the GFDL, GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and NOGAPS models, there is a very close consensus as to what will occur in the near term period. That being, the system heads toward the Yucatan. It's what happens from there that things diverge. I'm intrigued by implications made by the GFS, namely because it takes the what will by that time be '95L turned depression or Storm Matthew into the Yucatan while yet another Invest develops near Jamaica in its wake. It is this second area the model eventually develops into what could be of immediate interest as far as Floridians are concerned as it is the second one that would be either Matthew or maybe even Nicole (if 95L/Depression gets named).

 

On the other hand, the majority of the other models leave what would be solely Matthew just east of the Yucatan or partially over it and begin to deviate it northward with time. As you can see, we are well into Science Fiction at this point in time. So point is, we'll be reading/hearing/seeing lots of fiction on the press until things become a reality.

 

As long as we are talking fiction, and since I mentioned the GFS evolution of things to come already, we can take it a step further. The GFS way out out there takes this 'second yet to be system' across Florida as what appears would be a depression accompanied by copious rainfall, into roughly Eastern Georgia and merges it with what would be that what would be the system out of Minnesota. Talk about irony. But it doesn't end there. It's the NEXT system after that, as we end the first week of October...that could be the big player for somewhere in the Gulf Coast.

 

Point being in mentioning this, is  illustration that although as one would expect at this time of year, this is all completely ambiguous, the trend is indicative that a somewhat prolonged period of unsettled tropically associated weather over the state of Florida to varying degrees, could be well at hand September 25th - October 9th (more tropical at times than others). The good thing for east coasters though, as things look now none of these yet to develop systems would pose a Storm Surge threat to the east coast.