Much Warmer Through Saturday

SYNOPSIS: High pressure center almost dead overhead Central Florida this Thursday morning and getting poised to shift further toward the east and south during the early afternoon. Light SE flow just a few thousand feet above ground level (AGL) will translate to the surface later today. In the meantime, a cold frontal system is taking shape which stretches from the Carolinas SW' ward across S. Arkansas and into East Central Texas.

TODAY: Warming trend has already begun. Morning low here at Cape Canaveral was around 39F but by 10am had already warmed into the mid-upper 50s and about to already breach yesterday's high temperature of 59F on the porch. Much the same is occurring across the Peninsula. Early morning was interesting, with a temperature at Punta Gorda of 36F while Milton NAS in the Panhandle was 67F! A sign of things to come today.

High pressure over head resulted in calm to near calm winds early this morning, but the wind just above the surface is out of the ESE-SE as the high starts to retreat toward the ESE. Believe full retreat will be in order by around the 1-2pm time frame, at which time the wind will take on a more southwesterly component and temperatures warm accordingly toward th 70F, especially from Melbourne South. The north half of Brevard will be close to the mark though, but thinking the Cape Canaveral, Cocoa, Merritt Island to Titusville area will be mainly around 67-69F for the majority of the afternoon. A few widely scattered stratocumulus clouds were hovering overhead near the coast this morning indicative of the moistening, warming air mass awaiting in the wings just overhead. Awaiting, that is, to make a landing. We'll have touchdown!

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Continued SW winds all day with a few more clouds at various levels with a much warmer overnight low temperature. Believe the coolest temperatures will be found well inland ...in the 40s. Along and east of US1 up and down the coast the low should remain above 50F though with the 60s looming just offshore awaiting rising of the sun to harbor in yet another and even warmer day with widespread low-mid 70s from Ormond Beach to Brooksville south.

Meanwhile, the cold front will have entered the the Florida Panhandle where it will go stationary, generating widespread cloudiness and rains from near Tallahassee and points west of there.

SATURDAY: Front to remain stationary over far North Florida. WSW winds in the 10-15mph range for South and Central Florida. It may be that the east side of the state will feel the warmest temperatures since on that side of the state the wind will not be blowing across the by now cooled waters of the Gulf of Mexico...but rather have time to warm as they blow across the landmass before reaching the east side of the state. More partly cloudy skies will be in order, with maybe some nearly cloudy skies by late in the day due to high level cirrostratus clouds. But all in all, Saturday looks to be the warmest day of all for many to come.

The models have slowed on the cold front's progress, varying anywhere from a 6-18 hour delay on its arrival. Initially, and as written yesterday, it looked like the majority of Saturday after noon time would be pretty cloudy and wet for all of Central Florida...but we could still eke out another 12 hours of warm and dry air.

SUNDAY: Front to have finally sagged south into Central Florida by day break, making its passage during the course of the day. It looks like any rain associated with the boundary will hold off until after dark Saturday night, but begin before that time from a Tampa - Ocala - to south of St. Augustine line, teasing the Orlando area. By Sunday, daybreak, the rain will not be far away from Orlando to the coast. As such, cloudy for starters but still warm by comparison to days past. Might have the warmest temperatures of the day in the morning though, since it now appears the front will cross the entire Central Florida threshold during the mid-late morning hours. After which, they will remain steady or drop a bit under slowly clearing skies.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Post frontal conditions, but not so fast. Need to watch just exactly how fast and aggressively the entire boundary and its contents continues east and south. High pressure will build behind the front, but instead of approaching south Florida as was the case in our last cold episode, it will remain to the north. This could harbor in a more easterly flow and thus quick airmass modification behind the front...in other words, the weather on Sunday and Monday is not set in stone in my mind.

On the flip side, that's good thing if you don't like cold. The slower and longer the front takes to clear the area, the longer it will stay warmer. Unfortunately, it might also mean it will be cloudy longer, especially along and east of I-95.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Next front still poised to approach on Wednesday and will likely got through dry, not withstanding some clouds though. Again, no big cold surge to the freezing level anticipated with this boundary with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

TOWARD CHRISTMAS: The next cold and windy spell now appears will occur sometime around Christmas Eve to Christmas Day.

Wednesday, Thawsday, Fryday...So Long Ice!

Image: Frozen Flamingos Batman!

CURRENT: High pressure building south through much of the Deep South and down the spine of the Florida peninsula early this Wednesday afternoon, although there seems to be a secondary core in the NE Gulf of Mexico upon satellite imagery investigation. So nicely placed, that the warmest temperatures are found along the extreme western Panhandle where some 60 degree temperatures are being reported with a return southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure center. Everyone else is fairing nicely under mainly clear skies with a NW wind other than some what appears to be 'wash over' near Tallahassee where some mid level clouds are now evident.

TODAY: Most everyone is in the 50s over Central and South Florida this afternoon, with areas from West Palm and points south flirting around the big 6-0 mark. Such will remain the same for the day's remainder, with central portions remaining in the low-mid 50s, southern portions in the upper 50s to maybe a tick above 60. Upper 40s and lower 50s further north. Light and variable winds for the most part as the high pressure settles in for the evening.

TONIGHT: Light and variable winds under clear skies will set the stage for undoubtedly prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow for the majority of the overnight hours. It may be that some of the coldest spots by sunrise will be near Lake Okeechobee rather than further north as high pressure looks most likely to be centered over the big lake near sunrise. Return, southerly flow further north and west may actually keep that area (NW Florida) warmer in comparison. Freezing temperatures will likely be restricted to inland areas away from either coast but not be nearly as widespread as the past two mornings. The air mass is still pretty dry, so a quick drop in temperatures will commence as the sun gets low to the horizon late this afternoon. The driest of air could be on the move as well, and frost might be an agricultural concern well inland..."strawberry fields forever", hope so.

In fact, contingent upon how fast the high pressure area continues its ESE push off the Florida East Coast, some areas...especially along the coast from Cape Canaveral to Miami might bottom out sometime during the wee hours and maybe even go up a few degrees before sunrise. All in all, not shabby for one last fling at the truly cold stuff. Regardless to whether any warm up can occur before sunrise along the East and Southeast coas or not.....

THAWSDAY: Big warm up in store. We can pack away the thermal underwear, wool caps, gloves, and Gortex face masks (doesn't everyone have one of those in Florida?). Temperatures a good 5-8 degrees warmer for the most part as a starter to the day once out the door, and warming by 10 degrees more than today by afternoon with a SSW-SW wind a'blowin' gently under continued mostly clear skies.

For example, most areas will see the temperature rise by about 35 degrees tomorrow between 7AM - 2PM! Highs in the upper 60s widespread with lower 70s likely restricted for those in the south half of Brevard County and all points south. Expecting temperatures along the coast to remain in the 40s tonight along the US1 to A1A corridor up and down the east coast other than near J-Ville.

Either way, those 10 degrees in the afternoon (warmer than today) are going to make a big difference tomorrow. I draw the line when it gets below 67F (something magical about that temperature) when it comes to the temperature at any time, day or night.

FRYDAY: Well, maybe not quite that warm, but the intent is all good. Temperatures in the 70s becoming more widespread with lows along the coasts in the mid-upper 50s but likely in the 40s west of I-95. Partly cloudy skies with rains in the Panhandle and WSW winds around 12-18mph during the afternoon. Great way to end the work week.

SATURDAY: Nice, warm start to the day with clouds on the increase. Rains and maybe some thunderstorms should already be underway across the Panhandle and most of North Florida at sunrise, which will be moving east and south throughout the day. Looks like they should enter the Orlando area near noon time or shortly thereafter and rapidly engulf the remainder of South and Central Florida during the remainder of the day and into the night. Once the rain starts it might be tough to be rid of it...so if venturing out earlier in the day it might be wise to head out prepared for rain by early afternoon, if not sooner. Due to the cloud cover and evaporative cooling of rainfall likely evaporating before reaching the ground initially, don't believe high temperatures will make it quite as warm as those on Friday. Good chance of rains until midnight going in to Sunday.

SUNDAY: Front will be passing through at daybreak, and now appears will be across South Florida. Timing on this system has been far from perfect so far, so undoubtedly refinement of the rain and cloud clearing details will be required in tomorrow's post. This won't be a big, polar blast like the last one...but it will be cooler again by Monday with highs back below what we'd expect on a "normal' day...something like lows in the 40s and high in the 60s for a good portion of next week or almost 10 degrees below normal.

Another front approaches around Wednesday, but at this point appears will have little impact other than to entrench the temperatures already in place with a shot of cloud cover during its passing.

Wind Chill and Freeze WARNINGS in Effect Now!

Image: Yup, that's my porch thermometer at 7AM reading 28F, and hedging toward a 27F mark during the coldest time of the morning! There's a breeze adding to the 'inconvenience''. Images also show the breadth of the cold air expanse as well as how dry the air is. Wind chill and freeze warnings are in affect!! From a 'porch perspective' this is the coldest it has been in my location in 5 years, and colder than it EVER GOT last winter by a good 5 degrees just to put things in perspective.

TODAY:An advection cold air infiltration process is in full throttle early this Tuesday morning across all parts of Florida at sunrise. Crystal clear skies and very dry air at all atmospheric levels accompany the "Polar Express". No joking here today, this is cold by Central and South Florida standards. Maybe ironically, it's not as cold in North Florida as it has been already many times this cold season where low 20s have been observed already. In fact, Tallahassee this morning is barely any colder than my porch. That's the nature of an advection cold though, sometimes.

For the remainder of the day, temperatures this afternoon will be comparable to yesterday from near Cape Canaveral to Crystal River on the West Coast. It was warmer in Melbourne yesterday than it was for its northern neighbors just to the north and in the same county (Brevard), where the mercury struggled to break out of the 40s such as in Cape Canaveral and Titusville. Such will be the case today, however, do believe that the folks south of the line I just described above will be colder today, from Melbourne all the way to Miami where temperatures will struggles with the 50s today.

TONIGHT: Another cold night in store. In my mind, as I investigated yesterday as well, it is questionable as to whether the perfect conditions will manifest for a classic radiationally 'escaping' freeze (radiational cooling) by Wednesday morning, since winds will yet to come to near or at calm as the high pressure system will still be working SSE from the lower Mississippi Valley and not quite overhead, and as such we'll still have a bit of a pressure gradient at play. And as such, some wind. Either way, tonights temperatures will likely be even colder further south where already FreezeWarnings are in place, and it might be of longer duration one where it does get to freezing. Don't think it will get any colder tomorrow over Central Florida, or not by much, than this morning.

WEDNESDAY: Widespread freezing temperatures over the entire state in the morning with record low temperatures in jeopardy of being broken -- and hopefully not the water pipes. Still very cool in the afternoon too, but with very light wind and clear skies making for much tolerable conditions. Highs over Central and South will reach the low to mid 50s everywhere, and warmer toward Lake Okeechobee, Miami, and the Keys. High pressure will be passing overhead during almost peak heating yesterday making for what will be the most pleasurable conditions possible, all temperatures aside.

WEDNESDAY EVENING -THURSDAY MORNING: The high pressure passes over the state and moves further to the ESE and into the Atlantic with return southerly component flow commencing across the South Half of the Peninsula over night. That said, Thursday morning temperatures will be a good 10 degrees warmer than days past, and afternoon temperatures will come close to following suit with widespread low to mid 60s. Again, warmer further south.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A storm system starts to take shape in the Deep South while Florida remains on the backside of clockwise circulation around high pressure off to the east, the result being continued SW winds and warm air advection. Another 10 degree jump in morning low temperatures along the coasts and afternoon highs approaching 70F, most likely on Friday north of a West Palm to Sarasota line where it will likely still be in the 60s on Thursday. Widespread 70s on Friday and partly cloudy skies, with a few showers popping over the Panhandle as well as over S. Florida.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: Storm system gathers a little more momentum and moves toward the Eastern U.S. Seaboard, dragging another cold front behind in a somewhat strangulated fashion. The approaching boundary combined with southerly winds having been in place for a good 48 hours preceding its approach will abet in the formation of clouds and rain showers, most definitely on Saturday...chances of rain for the majority of the day in place, but not an 'all day rain' by any means. We can whittle down the timing of best rain chances in a future post.

LATE SATURDAY: Cold front works through the state and a return to cold air. But nothing like what we are now experiencing. More like a seasonable cold spell that will be a kick in the bucket after these past couple of days.

"Thar She Blows!" - Batten the Hatches

CURRENT SYNOPSIS: High pressure at the surface is in 'retreat mode' and off the SE Florida Coast as the highly publicized cold front moves down the Florida Peninsula. MAKE IT STOP! Images clearly delineate the clouds associated with the front proper, and the wind shift and marked temperature drop boundary clearly pronounce the fronts arrival as a surface entity of dreadful proportions.

TODAY: Cold front on the way as I write. The clouds along the N-W'trn horizons became visible less than an hour ago to the naked eye, and are already overhead in broken to scattered fashion. There is some rain associated both ahead and just behind the front. Surface winds are a stealthy 12-32mph in the area along the Space Coast early this afternoon with temperatures around 70F plus or minus a degree or two. Further north within the boundary the temperatures are in the mid 50s, and already into the upper 40s further north and west still. Timing will take the front through Orlando by 1-3pm and across the Space Coast in the 4-6pm time frame. Accompanying the front will be some light rain, overcast skies, and brisk WSW winds.

TONIGHT: After dark, the clouds will break up, temperatures fall, and winds become more W to WNWly. Cold air advection will be in progress relentlessly all night as wind chills become a driving force.

MONDAY: Cold from the Florida perspective. Daytime sunshine trying to mix with the cold air still filtering in will make the wind all the more brisk. I'm seeing the forecasts, but not buying into a forecast high breaching 50F, and if so for only a very brief time. Expecting the temperature to be in the 40s all day for the most part north of a Vero-Tampa line. It will feel much colder though with the wind making the cold air penetrable through every crack and crevice. Beware of north facing structures that will feel the full brunt of the wind minus sunlight.

Cold air blowing briskly across the Gulf of Mexico waters could very well induce a stratocumulus deck which could engulf much of the south half of the peninsula from near Sarasota - Ft Pierce adding bite to bark (or vice versa). Don't think we'll quite see the freezing mark in the morning but evenly distributed temperatures all locales in the mid-upper 30s are a good bet for all of Central Florida, a little warmer further south and of course colder to the north of a Daytona Beach-Crystal River Line where it will indeed be freezing.

It does not look like we will see any ice crystals falling from the clouds on Monday; in fact, probably other than those areas noted above where stratocumulus looks like a good bet, the north half of the state should be all coasts clear blue.

TUESDAY: Very cold start with widespread freezing temperatures beginning in the wee hours and lasting for quite a while. This could qualify as a HARD freeze for many areas inland as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Still the wind to deal with; this will be an intrusive, wind driven cold spell of most unaccommodating nature all day. Perhaps a few degrees warmer during peak heating than Monday but we'll still be clicking our heels three times: 'There's no place like home'. Oh pray tell, the heat is on there! Winds to die day a few hours after sunset.

WEDNESDAY: Continued unfavorable conditions for Florida agriculture, pets, and humans alike. High pressure will begin to move overhead, and the likelihood of radiational cooling as opposed to pure advection cooling will be at its greatest likelihood to occur Wednesday morning. As such, cold the whole way down to the tippy tip toe of the Peninsula but warmer along the intracoastals where warmer air above the bodies of water will be permitted to ooze across the near by land areas which they either surround or closely border due to the lack of wind which would otherwise not permit this to occur. Afternoon high temperature to rebound to reasonably sane; to that of which we've become almost accustomed to lately and well in to the upper 50s and 60s...warmer the further south one goes of course.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Better yet! The surface high pressure center will shift east of the state as the upper-mid level trough over the Eastern United States lifts a bit north and allows warmer air awaiting in the wings way down there south of Cuba to work its way north. No more freezing temperatures to deal with ...and afternoon high temperatures reaching the mid-upper 60s; 70s are highly questionable though north of a Vero-Tampa line.

SATURDAY: A perturbation in the upper levels could sink another boundary (cold front) down into North and Central Florida harboring a return to cloudiness and a rain chance. Not looking for a sudden cold blast this time, but rather a gradually seductive and permeating chill in the air will return without nearly the gusto as the system coming through today. No freezing or near freezing temperatures are foreseeable any time before or during Christmas for South or Central Florida beyond this coming Wednesday.

To cut to the chase, tonight through Wednesday morning it's survival of the fittest! Which, in reality, is a total joke compared to what other people in the United States around the Upper Mid West and the Northeast states are having to contend with. But each man has his demons...one learns to live and cope with it as best can.

Florida Snow Monday?!

(Image: That is what fog looks like from above this morning over Florida)
SYNOPSIS: Not much new on the storm front this morning. Fog, some dense with visibility reports of less than 1/4 or even 1/8 of a mile have filtered in to the reporting offices across Central Florida. The extent of the area covered by the fog is noted per the included visible satellite image. This was as of 9am, and loops show that it has not budged since day first broke. As such, believe it will be breaking up between 10:30-12:00pm...or at least thinning out considerably during that time frame. Should be gone by 1pm.

TODAY: Making the large assumption the fog will break, considering it would be highly unusual for it not to, the remainder of the day from noon time onward will be quite nice with a light NW wind and temperatures reaching the low to mid 70F's.

TONIGHT: Another pleasant but cool evening in store with light winds, fog again possible but will be quick to clear after daylight in those areas where it does form.

SUNDAY: Pleasant start to the day as WSW-SW winds pick up by late morning under partly cloudy sky conditions. A cold front will already be entering the Panhandle. The one I've already harped on in previous posts. Timing is still an issue as to when it will cross East Central Portions of the state, as it could anywhere between 1pm - 6pm. Prior to frontal passage we will be completely overcast with some light rain showers possible. If there is to be any thunder in association with the front I believe it will be well offshore either coast.

Due to extensive cloud coverage, afternoon high temperatures will fail to reach 70F in Central Florida, but south Florida could still eke out some better warmth.

LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING: No matter which model verifies, the front will have made a complete pass through Central Florida by 7pm-8pm. We will remain within the clouds for a brief time after dark, and maybe some light rain....but by 10pm fully expecting the NW winds to come in aboard 'The Polar Express". Next stop....Central and South Florida...before taking a detour back to the north, but leaving behind cold air in its wake.

MONDAY: Very cold by our standards...the afternoon high temperature will be similar to what the low temperature was this Saturday morning; however, it will be accompanied by very gusty NW winds adding quite a wind chill factor to the equation. We all know how that goes.

SNOW?! Well gee whiz. Wouldn't you know the GFS is bringing a second shot of moisture and energy over the state during the noon-4pm time frame on Monday to add insult to injury. Could mean a cloud bank with light, evaporating precipitation falling from it should this materialize. Temperature by this time of day should be too warm for snow anyway...BUT, never say never. Temperatures aloft will be cold all the way up (below freezing) Best chance looks at this time to be the N. Brevard - Daytona and into Seminole Counties. Also over by Crystal River on the west coast. Sometimes the strong winds blowing across the warmer waters has a perverse effect, but I'd expect that the temperature at the surface would have to be a good 10 degrees colder for snow to materialize (as has occurred in the past when we are in the upper 20s). And even snow, it would hardly qualify as 'snow fall'...I bring this up only out of interest sake at this point.

TUESDAY: Too cold again, with slightly less wind. But sunny for sure on this day. I've been noticing that although the models are taking the freezing line much further to the north at the surface, the 0 degrees C line at 925mb and 850mb is still way down in South Florida by Tuesday morning. I think that this temperature will mix down to the surface, especially by Wednesday morning when the atmosphere is most likely to decouple. As such, a solid deep freeze might well be in the cards for almost the entire state Tuesday morning with only the barrier islands east of US1 remaining clear of prolonged freezing temperatures, if any at all.

WEDNESDAY: Another freezing morning in many areas, but less in coverage. A rebound in afternoon temperatures begins as we get back into the low 60s.

THURSDAY: Back to sanity as a much more zonal flow pattern develops across the United States. No big chills appear to be encroaching in on most of the state for quite some time through Christmas at this point. Still looks like a west to east boundary could lay across the Panhandle region which would sink into Central portions next Saturday creating clouds and maybe some light rain, but no big cold air blast is associated with it. In short, next Saturday might not be all we like to make it up to be in terms of "pleasantness". It could be kind of gray all day...but we still have a week to go before then...and enough on the platter to deal with in the short and mid-term.

"The Polar Express" - Santa Hitches a Ride

SYNOPSIS: Inverted trough off the Florida east coast with weak surface low centered roughly just ENE of Daytona Beach early this afternoon is creating cloud cover and temperature havoc for much of north Florida, unbeknownst to those further south who are basking in the warmest and blue sky weather conditions that surpass those of which have been experienced in almost a week. A look at the images included in this post paint the picture. Cloud cover is over North Florida is preventing insolation of full sunshine, and the result is a very cool day indeed in that area.

Elsewhere, high pressure building across the remainder of the peninsula not affected by the backwash of the low pressure system is producing abundant sunshine and light winds as the cold air that has been in place the past several days lifts north.

TODAY: Much of what we see early this afternoon over Florida will continue to remain the case through sunset, or close to it. The only improvement so far further north has been that the rainshowers that were plaguing the Daytona Beach area seem to have shifted north and lightened up in intensity. Clouds and very cool temperatures will remain the story there through sunset.

TOMMORROW: The inverted trough/low pressure area shifts further north and begin to interact with a developing Plains system. The two will become one during the weekend creating dismally cold/wet conditions for the folks in the NE United States. But back to tomorrow, locally over Florida the weather will be much improved. Wherever it is sunny and warmer today will be even more so on Saturday.

Great day for a Cocoa Beach Christmas Parade. Chris Kringle, a.k.a. Santa Claus, will be visiting downtown Sin city with an evil thought planted in the back of his mind as attendees bask in full sun. He knows he needs a ride back to the north pole after a full year of rest in the tropics, and Cocoa Beach is where he'll be picking up the Polar Express for his ride back to the North Pole.

SUNDAY: Toot Toot! Another nice day in store for starters, but clouds like increasing by late morning to early afternoon as the train pulls into station. This is one train I don't want to catch, but in passing it seems it has some luggage to drop off. Bundles of cold air...DON'T OPEN UNTIL CHRISTMAS! Sunday probably won't be quite as warm as Saturday due to clouds by the time of peak heating. There has consistently been lack of consensus as to when the front will cross Central Florida between the GFS and NAM. The NAM, which normally is the faster and most aggressive with all things meteorlogically notable, is instead the slower of the two. The disparity comes in the form as to whether the front will cross the entire south half of Florida between the hours of 11-3am (GFS) or 6pm-10pm (NAM).

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In most cases, the powers to be that officiate on forecast dispersal for the media either opt on one or the other, or take an average of the two. I think it's going to be one or the other, with little room for hedging. In this case, I'm opting in optimism toward the NAM (but is it ever entirely correct?), if for no other reason than because I hate to see the train pull in to station.

Unfortunately, the tracks are being layed...maybe the engineers will go on strike for a while and delay the inevitable...that is, will favor the NAM solution.

Either way, increasing clouds with a WSW wind to start the day...when the front passes...you'll know it. Some light rain is entirely possible to be mixed in with the clouds, but any prolonged heavier that that activity will be short-lived and quick to move on. I wouldn't go anywhere far from home without luggage (a coat) if you plan on doing so after 1pm and plan on being gone longer than 4 hours. This is one of the cases where it can't hurt to be over prepared.

No matter when the front goes through, "The Polar Express" will blast on across the state, picking up Santa on the way...leaving behind a rushtling stir of arctic air which will then settle down over the state into Wednesday all areas.

MONDAY: Cold winds will blow through the trees overnight while we're under the blankets Sunday night, don't leave the dog out unattended. Temperatures drop all night with pretty windy conditions. The NAM and GFS come into full agreement that the freezing line Monday morning will be running right across Central Florida from near Cocoa Beach to Orlando. Not sure it will be quite that cold though, but mid-30s do not seem out of the question. Those temperatures, combined with a chilling wind will not make for a pleasant day. But hey, the sky will be blue. High temperatures will struggle above 53F. A little warmer further south of course.

TUESDAY: More of the same, with perhaps colder conditions inland and further south. Winds will let up a little but not entirely. The coast should be 'freeze conditions free' south of Daytona...but inland and toward the west side of the state down to Naples will be in for a long, deep freeze of possibly several hours. Afternoon to warm only a little from that which will be experienced Monday.

WEDNESDAY: Another cold night/morning, with winds letting up significantly. This might be the day of broadest covearge of near freezing temperatures under a light wind, radiational cooling regime...with widespread frost not unlikely for all but the A1A-US1 corridor. Warming a good 7-10 degrees though by early afternoon. With highs breeching 64F at least.

THURSDAY: All done. The conditions of early in the week should become a quickly faded memory as temperatures return to near normal, although probably just a few degrees below that. Looks like an extended period of zonal flow could be setting up across much of the country with fast moving systems zipping from west to east across the majority of the country, leaving SW Arizona and much of the south half of Florida being the warmest in the country. Too far out to say for sure, but the implications have been being made now for a few days. Looks nice for next Friday once again, but a pesky, stretched out frontal boundary might lay across the state in benign enough fashion to increase the high level cloud coverage (cirrus clouds) for the second half of next weekend.

Clouds and Cold Will Lift for the Weekend

Images: Posting the images shown because as the saying goes "A picture paints a thousand words". Satellite image shown depicts the extent of cloud coverage, and most pronouncedly, where it does not extend. Clear skies are not far away from East Central Florida, but South Florida sees no hope for the direcct sun rays today. Moisture and showers just off shore.

TODAY: Low pressure features are passing South and west of the Florida Keys this afternoon and upper level winds aloft are streaming over them, shearing the moisture laden upper level atmosphere across the South 1/2 of the state. Brevard County is currently on the northern extent of the receiving end of this event. Meanwhile, an inverted trough co-located near the Gulf Stream off shore in conjunction with what was noted yesterday as a weak low pressure area over the Northern Bahamas lies in waiting for the energies associated with the first feature to spread on in...

In the meantime, for the earlier portions of the afternoon, cloudy skies persist over much of the area for which this blog covers. If you are a reader and look outside at clear skies right now, you will stay that way. It's the folks further south of you that have the short term weather to contend with.

By later this afternoon, in the 4-6pm time frame, it is entirely possible the 850mb and some 500mb vorticity will act upon the inverted trough laying in waiting offshore the east coast. Additionally, the NNW surface winds should begin to veer more toward the NNE (from which winds just above the surface are already from)...providing for a deep enough, yet very shallow column of moisture sogged air to generate a more concentrated shallow cloud deck. Concentrated enough to result in precipitation over the barrier islands. Should this occur, it will be within an hour or two of sunset.

The fly in the ointment that should things align ever so slightly further to the east than anticipated, the rain will remain off shore...and in fact, the skies could even start to break up...but for now, I'm playing the devils advocate in gambling with model consensus. Any rain that will fall will be solely east of I-95, if not US1, from Oak Hill to Ft. Pierce. Further south, those areas into Palm Beach and Broward Counties are contending with the dynamics of an entirely different animal. Regardless, the end result is the same.

Afternoon high temperatures I expect will be much cooler than formally released by the press due to the cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling of any early stage rain that tries to fall but evaporates before penetrating the very dry air that is struggling to modify (as noted in yesterday's "spine of the state" dryness image).

TONIGHT: Should clouds remain in place, as is most likely, overnight lows will be much milder over those areas that will clear out further to the north. Those areas will be colder for sure without the radiation blanket of clouds thrust overhead.

FRIDAY: Still a tough call for the coast from Oak Hill and south. But, I do believe the rain chance can be removed altogether with the only thorn being the possibility of clouds, but do believe they will be on the decrease as well allowing afternoon temperatures to rise most notably into the upper 60s or near 70F degrees. Reason being the forecast winds at 925mb will weaken and loss their onshoreward directed component.

SATURDAY: Rain free and warmer both by night and by day. Could even maybe do some shorts by afternoon...but don't pack away the long johns just yet. Overall, Saturday looks to be the most comfortable, pleasant day on the shelf in entirety for some time to come.

SUNDAY: Very pleasant other than some increasing high clouds. Should be rain free all day with a warm southwest wind...but the folks in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida up toward Gainesville and eventually Ocala area will be first to see and feel the harbinger of things to come in the form of more cloudiness and rain before daylight ends. Further south into most of the Central and Southern Portions of the state we should remain precipitation free until after sunset.

This is different from earlier proposals for this time frame. That is, it looks like the cold front headed this way is going to be delayed (most conveniently) by several hours from what was previously thought. As such, not a bad day overall.

MONDAY: Cold front passes through overnight and morning dawns cold and very breezy. Could see our warmest temperature of the day in the morning...or whatever the temperature is at 10am might just hold steady there until late afternoon, after which it drops like a rock. Windy too from the NW-NNW. Monday is not going to be a fun day to romp about in shorts for sure. Have muffs, gloves, scarves, coats, ..will travel.

TUESDAY: Coldest morning of next week as winds die down a bit, but not entirely. On the other hand, a little warmer than Monday in the afternoon but not warm enough to change the wardrobe. Must point out at this time, that it does not look as though it will get as cold as advertised yesterday...in fact, not nearly as much so. Basically, it will be comparable to that which we've just experienced that past few days...give or take.

WEDNESDAY: Modification of the cold air mass fully commences as we await the next system

CHRISTMAS: Outlooks for this time frame will begin by Monday. For now, not expecting tremendously cold air to be in place, but the chance of precipitation may prove problemmatic. But again, it is unrealistically way to far off in time to do anything more than hypothesize. Can't even come up with a theorem yet no less.

Two Tales Of Winter Next 5 Days - James Bay Storm Machine in High Gear

Image: The 1km relative humidity this morning, shows just what we mean in addressing the "spine"of the state. Direct northerly, dry wind component right down midway. It is, in fact, dry to the spinal bone.

TODAY: Crisp morning with light winds is giving way to a cool afternoon with clear skies, other than some interesting contrails all over the place at 11am. Low pressure system is developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico, while another is trying to take shape near the N. Bahamas. The Gulf Low will move east, then more southerly with time as it approaches the Florida Peninsula overnight and then moves generally toward Western Cuba on Thursday. Bahama low lingers with little to no intensification in the short term.

Mostly sunny today, with an increase in some high clouds by late afternoon and into the early evening. Temperatures running well below seasonable norms once again today.

TONIGHT: Clouds on the increase mean an end to radiational cooling in the morning this day, and if anything, radiational warming (if there is such a thing) during the peak coolest hours of pre-day break Thursday, as the Gulf low approaches the Florida straits. Overnight lows probably a good 5 degrees warmer tonight, if not more so.

THURSDAY: The atmosphere is very dry right now as notable by the image included in today's 'dry to the spinal bone' image post. This air will be slow to modify, and as such, the precipitation shield portrayed by the NAM over the South 1/2 of Florida to be in place by daybreak is probably over done and will manifest only as low, overrunning warm air, cloud coverage initially. By late morning, energy at the low and upper levels associated with this system will gather with that of the system over the Bahamas. The result will be a backwash in the incumbent circulation from the NE along the coast from Daytona south to Vero Beach.

As such, cloudy conditions are expected for the day's entirety Thursday for most if not all but the Northern 1/3 of the state. The greatest chance of overrunning warmer air above the cold platter at the surface generating stratiform rain will be along the intercoastal. This is somewhat a hard pill to swallow, in that such an event is pretty darned unusual. So it is with bated breath I close my eyes and swallow the pill, hoping it goes down all the way without getting stuck. Because...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: If indeed the NAM (with the GFS coming into agreement) verifies, it will be the US1-A1A corridor from the Cape south to West Palm and maybe even Ft Lauderdale that could get wrapped up in isentropic backwash. In other words, lots of low clouds and rain. The greatest chance of such to manifest will be along the Brevard county intercoastal to Vero Beach. At best, it will just be cloudiness with no thermal heating to serve the soul which could put a bust on the high temperature outlook for this area. Folks further to the west might very well be carrying on their daily activities with no reserve and in complete ignorance to the conditions befalling their coastal cohorts just an hour drive away.

Seen it happen before. You leave Orlando under partly cloudy skies, only to cross I-95 heading toward the beach with a big cloud shield facing you dead ahead...which turns to light rain upon crossing the Indian and Banana Rivers. You get to A1A and it's an entirely different world from the one you left behind just an hour ago. Say it isn't so!

So to cut to the chase, best chances of rain, should there be any, will be from noon-dark along and east of US1 from Titusville to Vero, and over extreme S. Florida and the keys in association with the Gulf low. On a more positive note, this could all remain just offshore so we'll have to play it by ear.

FRIDAY: Warmer temperatures in the afternoon. For the most part, many areas will be in the clear. Most specifically N. Central Florida and down the west 1/2 of the state. But again, the Cape area comes into tricky territory. Exactly how quickly the entire conglomerate east of the state moves away remains up in the air. If it is to continue to rain anywhere it will be the A1A corridor...and at worst case, the whole way into Saturday. UGH. Then again, maybe not. I say it like it is, which is why I don't get paid for it. But for the most part, I think the east will be okay and in actuality could end up being a decent day overall. In other words, this is a 'crossing my fingers and hoping for the best' forecast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Much warmer with a high in the low 70s. Finally. In the meantime, the writing is on the wall now...considering the model consistency during the past 48 hours. As feared, the worst of the cold has yet to come, and when it arrives it will be WITH A VENGEANCE!

Good rain chances Sunday as moisture and upper level energy all come in perfect syncopation in the form of a band of rain (thunderstorms so far do not seem to be the operative term yet)...but in whatever form it develops, it won't be here to stay too long. That's good I suppose, even if we are in a severe drought. Who wants a cool and very windy rain anyway making everything all nasty? Expecting some pretty sharp clearing, but not for a good reason.

MOAN-DAY: For with the clearing by sunrise will come the Blast from Arctic Hell. Preliminary MOS data paints a low temperature for Orlando Tuesday morning of 26F with PAFB at 35F! That second one is debatable in my mind...heck, I'm shooting for freakin' 29F, with wind too. Cold all day Monday...and

TUESDAY:....today. More cold with a last hurray. Things will modify pretty quickly for mid week before the next storm system takes shape around the James Bay storm machine which is partly responsible for the misery that everyone from Florida to Maine is contending with into next week. Could be worse though...snow is not in the equation here which complexes the forecast challenged 10 fold.

Think It's Cold Today? - Man Your Snuggie Stations!!

Images first show is the current temperature layout; second image early next week. Say hi to "Santa Breath".

Synopsis: The combination of Low pressure near Nova Scotia and High pressure over the central Plains is shaking hands in agreement, with a nod at the Deep South with evil intent. Cold air has been enabled, as a result of their agreement, to engage in full on assault to the sandal clad shorts wearers of Florida, sending them burrowing deep in to the quilts.

TODAY: Cold air advection continues is about all their is to say. As expect, the surface winds last night into early this morning never completely decoupled, and as a result mixing of the lower boundary layer level has precluded the temperature from dropping even further than what it has already, as if it weren't bad enough. I think, in general, temperatures are not as cold as was being considered by the NWS on the broad scale, but on our local scale I think they are colder than what was expect. However, after many years of experience forecasting for this area, it has been my observation that the immediate A1A corridor does not have its coldest mornings when radiational cooler drainage flow air is at its peak performance. This air tends to stay limited to the spine of the state, sparing the coastal areas. On the other hand, when the wind is up...cold air has the power hand to spread it's wealth uniformly over the state which is certainly the case this morning and as can be seen by the included surface depiction of 8am EST.

Cold air will continue pro bonum today free of charge, not sure it's for the public good though (who hired these guys anyway?)...with no legal restraint. Today will be the coldest overall day yet, with a high in the lower end mid 50s range, which will only be during the peak heating hours of 1:00 - 2:30pm. For the most part we'll be in the low 50s today. These temperatures won't have far to fall tonight.

TONIGHT: Snuggie time. But we'll need to wear 3 at once. No more having to decide which of your favorite to wear, heck...wear'm all! Believe the atmosphere will decouple tonight leaving the residual layer of elevated wind aloft with near calm winds at the surface. Cold air advection will abate, but it will already be in place as the coldest of air barely overhead can settle to the surface and ooze south along the state's geographical features of nicks and crannies, filling in the little cracks and crevices of the local low lying areas. Those areas most prone to getting cold in events past, will feel the brunt tonight of this episode. Along the coast though, without the chill of wind in your face, it probably won't feel nearly as bad as it does this morning come sunrise Wednesday, and it probably won't be any colder either since the surrounding warmer waters will have a debilitating effect on the local enviroment.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY: Gradual warming, although using the word 'warming' is a bit of a misnomer, considering the temperature will still be well below what is considered to be average for this time of year. High back toward the 60s, especially Thursday under mostly clear skies. Morning lows Thursday still to freezing in North Central portions, with wide spread mid-upper 30s well inland...but into the 40s along the coasts.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Warming in earnest ensues, but pretty much just enough to help thaw out a bit before the next onslaught late Sunday into Monday. (see included image). Could see some rain or even thunderstorms by the first 1/2 of Sunday as the system gathers steam in the Deep South and swoops the cold front from 'frozen hell' through during the day. And after that...

Should the above forecast hold true (as shown in that image) it will be even colder WITH wind as well, then the past 2 days have been...early next week! Make it stop!!

Fe Fi Fo Fum, The Coldest Is Yet to Come

Image: Colorized depiction of surface temperatures at 7AM this Monday morning. Note the cold pocket over the barrier island near Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold air continues to filter in to Florida from the NW this morning. The process seemed to begin here locally around 5pm, Sunday when the wind picked up and the air took on a refreshed quality. Cold air advection will be fully underway all day today, and as such, believe afternoon high temperatures will be colder than what I last saw advertised on The Weather Channel or heard from local media.

At current time it is nearly 41F, colder than I thought it would be here this morning by a few degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are running in the upper 20s along the panhandle to upper 30s will inland which is almost warmer than I thought it would be. That means, the winds are still up a notch, and that cold air advection has not completed its cycle. But in looking upstream combined with the latest forecast model depictions, they seem to be trending downward from previous guesses. The greatest impact of this 'progression' will be for the afternoon temperatures to be colder today than it was initially thought they would be, with a high along the Barrier Islands of around 54F and an irritating NW wind to add a chill to the air in any place open to the wind and in the shade. This was previously what I thought it would be Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Don't think the atmosphere will yet to completely decouple from the boundary layer winds aloft, as such we should still have some mixing and consequently not the unusual amount of cooling as one would expect under prime radiational cooling conditions, with surface winds maintaining a general NW wind component from sunrise to near sunset but lighter than those this morning.

WEDNESDAY: This might be the BIG day. A lower low, and a higher afternoon high temperature to be in order as the atmosphere completely decouples under clear skies Tuesday night. Very light to nil wind, clear skies, and the residual layer aloft will combine for peak drainage flow conditions. As such, the coldest temperatures over many areas will be not Tuesday but Wednesday morning; however, under these conditions the barrier islands will not be any colder than one will experience on Tuesday. Should this indeed be the case on Wednesday morning, we will see some big temperature extremes between morning coastal low temperatures to those west of I-95 from Orlando south to Kendall/Miami-Dade where the coldest of air drains down the spine of the state and pools near and south of Lake Okeechobee.

But every coin has a flip side. The end of the mixing winds is also an indicator that cold air advection has ceased. As such, under clear afternoon skies and lighter winds, the atmosphere will take an about face and warm just as formidably as it will have cooled the night before, with a high reaching in to the low-mid 60s by the 1-2pm time frame.

THURSDAY -SATURDAY: A less pervasive coldness to the air, but still very cool as temperatures trickle up the scale.

LATE-SATURDAY - ON: "Fe Fi Fo Fum...I smell the blood of colder air to come."

Say it isn't so, and we still have time for the crystal balls to re-evaluate. But, should proof come in the proverbial pudding, then it's going to be a nasty one. We see, oh great soothsayer, a squall line to form in the Gulf of Mexico followed by cold, near freezing winds by Monday as a resurgence of the omnipresent conditions of late are re-enforced.

Say it isn't so. We'll see.... Just a heads up. I hope not to have a final 'flip-out'...and will update the status of this foreboding event in subsequent posts. Last thing we need to be doing is ice-fishing in the Atlantic any time soon.

Phreaky Phantom Phront To Pass Overhead Today

Image: Interesting satellite image this morning clearly delineates the cold frontal boundary stretched East/West across the Gulf, Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean. This boundary is dropping steadily south at about 15mph.

TODAY: Southwesterly winds early to shift to the NW once the cold front passes. At this point, timing would place passage across the Orlando to KSC line sometime around 10:30am. Radar does show very light rain associated with the boundary, but believe it is not reaching the ground, but if it is you'd hardly notice nor need to fret, let alone, prepare for it. By midafternoon winds will be NW and continued breezy with a high temperature probably not reaching 70F.

TONIGHT: Pretty darned cold, with the worst yet to come. Lows in the mid-upper 30s area wide except the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south where low-mid 40s seems more reasonable. Winds will remain elevated tonight and into Monday, so the wind chill apparent temperature will be a real bug in the side. Cover up!

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Cold with temperatures well below what is considered 'normal' (whatever that means) for this time of year. I say this because at this time of year, temperatures can run in such a wide gamut of variability that 'normal' is a misleading disparity to reality, when in actuality a better word or words like "what you'd normally expect to experience over a 50 year average on a nice early December day"...which even then, although not exactly informative, might do better to serve us well.

I think sometimes these 'average' temperatures need to be re-evaluated by the NWS because over a period of time the 'average' bears little to no weight...maybe more precisely in statistics might usethe weighted average or norm. In any case, what we are trying to say is don't expect it to feel warm or even just kind of cool. It will be cold before 10am with freezing temperatures pretty much everywhere except along and east of A1A. Not good. But temperatures where it does get below freezing shouldn't stay down there to long...by 9AM we'll all be above the 'blue lips...frozen finger tips" mark unless you've decided to take a skinny dip.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Continued 'abnormally cool in the afternoons and a bit cold for 'getting the morning paper in your skivvies' cold. No chance of rain or any appreciable weather activity whatsoever other than maybe some pretty sunsets.

THE GREAT BEYOND: No bigger cold spells in store, wont it to get colder than it already will. What'd you expect, snow? Have it folks up there in the great white tundra of N. Georgia.

From Cool to Cold - Let It Be Told

Image: A frozen Brevard County front yard from December, 1989

TODAY-SUNDAY: Pleasant afternoon in store with a high near 68F. Not nearly as cold tonight along the beachs with a low in the low-mid 50s, but with much lighter winds in store, clear skies, and dry air in place we will be primed for a combination of radiational cooling and light drainage flow down the spine of the state. The coolest area might actually end up being inland down by (and south of) Lake Okeechobee. Sunday will be the warmest day of the week with a high near 70F.

MONDAY: No action in the rain or wind department as a 'silent front' drops south from Canada with Old Man Winter riding shot gun, with guns loaded, into Florida.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Tuesday will be the overall coldest with freezing temperatures pretty much everywhere west of US1 as far south as Lake Okeechobee.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Only a slow trend upward will the mercury go inside the thermometer. But the end does appear to be in sight, if for only a short time, to the much colder than normal temperatures we will have all of this upcoming week.

Dry (check), Too Cold (check), Winter (Yep)

IMAGE: This is a color depiction included in today's post which shows the morning temperatures where they were generally at their lowest this morning.

TODAY: An overly cool airmass within the NW wind coveyor belt contained within a dry air mass will yield clear skies and cool temps through the next 10 days.

TONIGHT: Another cool night, much like last night's with a low mostly in the 40s central and south.

WEEKEND: About a 5 degree warming through Saturday and Sunday, with reinforcements on the way for mid-week next week, but remaining dry.

Not much else to elaborate on today. Still looking toward Christmas without too much concern in regards to severe winter weather...but do see a hint of a system to form off the SE Texas coast around day 12...bears watching.

Drainage Flow and Florida Cold Snaps

Image shows morning dewpoint temperatures are down to a chilly and cold purple color, which is defined by the scale on the left side of the image.

RECAP: A cold front swept down the state yesterday producing little in rainfall over the Peninsula, although the spectacle created by its leading edge was somewhat impressive to view as sunrise approached coexistingly. Almost equally inspiring was the sharp clearing line that ensued around noon time. It's all water under the bridge now though as a mid-upper level trough will persist over the eastern 1/3 of the nation for the next 7-10 days.

TODAY: Dry and cool! See image above which shows the dew point temperatures. I like this depiction because it really points out those areas that are most prone to getting the coldest during the winter, which began climatically speaking yesterday. Note the cold spots around Punta Gorda and along the West Coast, all of the Panhandle, and north side of Lake Okeechobee. The warmest area is from Cape Canaveral south along A1A to Miami. Even Kendal in extreme South Florida often gets colder than Cocoa Beach. Pretty bizarre. Which leads to a topic in particular:

DRAINAGE (FLOW): You will see this term referred to in many a discussion during the winter...although it can be applied to as a temperature marker at almost any given time of the year; but it is during the winter that drainage flow has the greatest and most notable impact, undoubtedly to the citrus crop.

Drainage flow of cold air occurs on evenings under pristinely clear skies and dead calm winds. Cold air flows down the 'spine' of the state over the cooler land mass (than the surrounding waters) the whole way to Kendal. The immediate coastline such as along A1A corridor and all of the Florida Keys doesn't really feel the direct impact due to the intracoastal and/or the Atlantic Ocean waters. Clear skies allow any heat generated during the day to dissipate back into the atmosphere (whereas cloud cover at night acts as a blanket), and calm winds prevents mixing, or allows the atmosphere to "mix out"..think of it as that the molecules are all excited and rubbing up against each other creating 'heat' when it is windy.

Thus, when little to no wind and clear skies combine, and likely the affects of gravity and the Coriolis Force (perhaps) permitted to act without opposing outside influence "drainage flow" takes center stage. Net affect is the penetration of cooler/colder down the landmass to the most southern extent away from any bodies of water. Thus, Kendal's low temperatures often undercutting those locations much further north but closer to the Atlantic. The drier the overall air mass is the lower the dewpoint goes, and the lower the ambient air temperature can go as well. Thus, it is during the winter time when dew point temperatures fall the lowest, combined with drainage flow conditions, that sends even the Snow Birds on migration to the equator (in the most extreme, rare case situations).

QUIZ: Do you think Drainage Flow was the main reason the temperature was so cold toward Kendal and Punta Gorda this morning? If not, why?

THIS AFTERNOON: NNW-NW winds to continue as the cold air advection continues. Clear sky with a high struggling to reach the mid-60s. Temperatures begin to fall again 1 hour before sunset, during which will probably be quite a nice looking one. Might try for some photos tonight, but more likely Friday night.

FRIDAY: Another chilly start to the day with lows in the panhandle once again in the mid-upper 20s in some locales and gradually warming to the low 40s the further south one gets. The extreme east coast from the Air Force Station to Miami will again be the warmest in the state, not disguarding the Keys of course which are surrounded by modifying ocean water temperatures (cheaters!). High again unlikely to reach 70F.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Only a slight warm up. Fall, and for that matter, early winter is here to stay. No rain with sunny days and lighter winds with each progressive day after today.

TUESDAY: Incoming re-enforcements of cold air! What? But we never got warm! So it is. A broad, deep trough of mid-upper level low pressure will presist over the east 1/3 to 1/4 of the country (mainly east of the Mississippi) for the next 7-10 days. As such, storm systems will continue to carve a path along and around the base of the trough, at which Florida is the recipient base. However, by the time these 'shortwave' systems reach Florida they are of a very weak moisture profile nature and yield neigh but some clouds as they pass over. Cold air on newly refreshed NW winds harbors in continued surges of cold Canadian air.

So far, Wednesday looks to be the peak of the cold spell, or maybe more appropriately, the bottom.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: Oh yes, the great 'beyond'. What evil lurks in the mind of Old Man Winter? No need to prepare the chains and snow plows down here just yet, and perhaps the tanning oil will be needed as a stocking stuffer as we head toward Christmas if that's an indication of my hopeful ambitions concerning the unforeseeable future. For now though, it could actually warm a spell just in time for Christmas. No big storms / rainmakers are on the horizon, so the next topic of concern beyond possible freeze conditions next week (one of many to come) will be spreading drought conditions by the time late February rolls around and resultant Fire Weather.

Oh, almost forgot. The answer to the quiz is 'no'. We had too much wind state wide for "drainage flow" by definition to be the main reason it was so cold down there this morning. Now, in a day or two, the answer will be 'yes' as winds subside and we will see some pretty sharp temperature gradient boundaries become established by the numbers therefrom.

Today is the First Day of Climatological Winter, and Right on Cue

(Images: Show the location of the front on radar quite impressively as it passes across Brevard County. The other image is what it looked like outside at the same time. And today is December 1st...read more about this date below:

1.The first day of the astronomical winter is December 21.

2. The first day of the climatological winter (as defined by the World Meteorological Organization) is December 1. That's today!

3. The first day of the ecological winter occurs locally with the end of the growing season. This date varies from one region to another and can shift from one year to the next; however in general, the ecological winter begins in November in cool temperate climates and December in mild temperate climates.

Well, as noted the cold front is moving on thru right now and will complete it's passage over Central Florida before noon time. Northwest winds behind the front will usher in much drier and cooler air during the course of the day with our high temperature of the day likely already reached around 7AM or 8AM this morning.

THIS AFTERNOON: Clouds will begin to clear after a post-frontal trough crosses the area which will produce another rounds of a light sprinkle and enhanced cloud cover chances, but this should be out of the picture by late in the afternoon. The main intolerable difference today will be a northwest wind harboring in a much cooler, modified Canadian Air Mass during the course of the afternoon and through the evening tonight.

TONIGHT: Clouds will have cleared by sunset, or close to it. Winds will stay elevated throughout the evening as temperatures fall to near 49F along the coast and near 45F inland.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Mainly clear skies will prevail throughout the period with a gradually waning wind strength from the NNW-N late in the period. Morning lows will probably bottom out on Friday morning where the correlation of lightest possible winds and cold air advection will make their greatest intersection across the meteorological realm of possibilities for this particular system. Lows in the low 50s near the coast and highs will struggle with 70 degrees.

SUNDAY: Very little change with regard to temperatures or sky cover, with a gradual warm up...but not by much. We are in it for the long haul. Another front will enter the picture next Tuesday or Wednesday to repeat this process all over again, and next time maybe even cooler to down right cold with its arrival. Looks like our days of 80 degrees are over outside of an errant "day before the front" event.

Perfect timing though, the first day of Meteorological Winter.

Last Day Of Warmer Air - Multiple "Hints" of Winter to Begin Tomorrow

Image: Panoramic view from the porch as rain showers approach from the south, paralleling the east Florida coast and crossing mainly the barrier islands.

SYNOPSIS: Weak low level forcing and a moisture flux divergence max exists right as I type over the eastern Cape south to Patrick Air Force Base over the barrier islands and brushing the US1 corridor as well. Showers are generating along the southern edge of greatest forcing near Sebastian inlet and passing mainly offshore, but making a brush with the Aloha County of Brevard.

Elsewhere, the storm system / cold front reponsible for multiple tornado reports (8) on mainly Lousiana and Mississippi is approaching the Florida Panhandle today as high pressure centered east of Florida continues to paddle further out into the great blue sea and away from the state.

As a result, surface and steering winds just above the surface will swing ever so slowly more torward the S-SSW today. Rain showers will continue to impact the barrier islands for the most part, but other parts of East Brevard are seeing the H20 as well falling from the moisture laden but somewhat whimpy clouds of little vertical extent just overhead.

TODAY: It is raining right now at my place at 9:05am, and has been off and on since daybreak. Most areas, like 90% of the county is not getting rain, and from a state perspective only about 3 percent of the entire state is getting rain....thus, if it is raining where you are now, trust me, that is not the case for the vast majority. As a matter of fact, the sky is almost down right nearly clear south of a line running from Sebastian Inlet to Sarasota.

Expect morning rains to continue right at the coast until noon time, then it gets tricky. The RUC model has been becoming more aggressive with not only increasing the rainfall, but also extending out in time how long it will last. AND, as of now and according to the last run, it' s not even supposed to be raining here yet ...not until 11am.\ (according to it). On the other hand, last night's mid-range models all showed the rain will end..and in fact, it has here right now. They show all rain to be over the remainder of daylight hours. I'm siding with that resolvement and believing that all areas will be good to go before noon with warmer temperatures by early afternoon in those areas with little to zero cloud coverage which e will be just about everywhere.

Foks between US1 - I95 and over toward Orlando should remain dry for the most part, as well as though over all of South Florida until later this afternoon at least (more likely to see rain down there over night tonight though, and very little of it at best).

Today will be the warmest day we will see on average for possibly well into December. So man your battle stations, we are going to be at war with Old Man Winter (albeit in a much sub-dued state) beginning sunset Wednesday and through the weekend. It won't be any colder though than what it was last time we got kind of 'cool' over 10 days ago though.

TONIGHT: Rain chances increase in areal coverage over the entire state as the front approaches, but any significant accumulations should be north of a Ft. Myers to Vero Beach line since the tail end (south end) of the front will be lacking even more in upper level dynamtic energy than what Central portions will be provided with. Any severe weather threat will be confined to the Panhandle region, although we could receive some thunder applause over night tonight should one particular storm get its 'act' together. But no one is going to be taking home an Emmy this time around.

WEDNESDAY: Front on the approach at day break after having already cleared all of NW Florida. It will start out cloudy with some light rain in the vicinity. Over night low in near 70F +/- three degrees pretty much everywhere under the blanket of evening clouds.

Now expect the front to cross east central Florida between the hours of 8AM to 1pm before it blasts on through South Florida by sunset. Rapid clearing behind the boundary and NW winds on its chilly heels begins the cold air advection pattern all night over night in Thursday morning and lingering into Saturday as well.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Pleasantly cool with sweater and jacket mornings and sun ray catching afternoons in whatever you wish to wear that makes you happy, uh...within legal reason..

NEXT WEEK: Veering winds bring a slight return to an onshore flow regime as the GFS now shows another system to cross about 1 week after the one coming up tomorrow.

It is this system that beaqrs watching from a 'very chilly weather' perspective. But for now, just watching...and praying "NOooooooooo".