"Polar Express Engine" Set to Collide With the "Pineapple's Caboose"

Image: Forecast images for 7AM Christmas morning show a developing low pressure system developing in the North Central Gulf, courtesy of tail end Charlie energy associated with the remnants of the last of the Pineapple Express that plagued California for many days. We also see the leading edge of energy associated with a "Polar Express" blast diving south across the mid-Mississippi River Valley Basin. It currently looks like the two trains will phase/sync/collide just off the South Carolina coast the day after Christmas.

TODAY: Happy day before Christmas and Christmas Eve to all! It's looking quite pleasant out there early this afternoon over all of Florida. The warmest temperatures (low 70s) are found from West Palm Beach to Miami along the east coast. Once again, I'm under-playing the official forecast high temperatures for extreme East Central Florida this afternoon as due north winds blow over the intracoastal waters keeping high temperatures this afternoon in the low end mid-60s range. Yesterday, unbeknownst to others outside this area, it was actually very cool out on the islands with a high in the low 60s under a partly to occasionally cloudy sky close to the coast during peak heating. As a result, it stayed pretty darned cool over the islands yesterday as opposed to the Orlando area where wide spread mid-60s occurred, and the steady NNW-N breezy did not help matters.

The wind today has died a little, and clouds do not appear as though they will pose any problems this afternoon as opposed to yesterday. They are offshore, but are having a hard time penetrating any closer to the coast the past 2-3 hours, so it looks like we'll be scott free of them for the most part. The wind is a bit amplified beyond what was expected this early afternoon hour, but seems to be once again, like yesterday, limited in strength to only those areas near the waterways.

All things given, expect the wind to die down significantly by sunset of shortly thereafter as the mean directional vector becomes more easterly and weakens under a clear sky.

TONIGHT: Mainly clear through midnight with an overnight low hugging the low 50s along the coast and in the mid-40s inland.

CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK: Light and variable wind at sunrise with the day dawning at temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer than this morning. By 9-10am a more southerly wind component will become evident as high pressure now over the Carolina will have moved ESE overnight and well into the Atlantic in prelude to the approaching "Polar"/modified "Pineapple" Express ensemble pushing east out of the South Central Plains. The two systems will be pushing east in tandem throughout Christmas Day but remain separate entities. The southern most system now crossing Texas ("Pineapple") will cross the Northern Gulf during the day but remain a non-player for the peninsula as far as the rain gauges are concerned during Christmas Day, but do expect that some high level cloud streamers will begin to infiltrate by late morning and increase in coverage during the course of the day well in advance of its more direct influence after night fall, Christmas night.

As such, like recent days, I'm underscoring the official high temperature forecast for tomorrow, since given the low sun angle at this time of year any clouds worthy of note will put a damper on what temperature could otherwise be reached under clearer/cloud free sky conditions. As such, believe upper 60s will be the rule with 70s reaching from South or maybe Central Brevard and points south. Winds will assume a more SSW-SW component by noon or shortly thereafter (as the upper level clouds increase) to the 12-18mph range during the main course of the afternoon and some peoples' Christmas Dinner. Overall, it will be a nice day though ... Merry Christmas.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: A warm, winter night for peninsular Central and South Florida (that is, as far as 'warm winter nights' go in Florida). In other words, probably one of the warmest 'overnights' we've had in quite sometime as winds will remain elevated ahead of the approaching/gathering storm system to our NW-WNW. Clouds increasing and lowering ceilings overnight will aid in keeping the temperatures up; another way of looking at it is that everything that prime radiational cooling "is"...this night will most certainly be 'not'. Rains will first affect the panhandle before midnight and rapidly spread east and south after midnight of the 26th, Sunday affect everyone north of Vero Beach by sunrise. Rainfall totals do not look very impressive, and some areas won't see any rain at all. If perhaps a showers can gain some altitude in the only moderately (at best) unstable atmosphere accompanied by good speed sheer, those healthier showers could put down some good wind gusts. For the most part though, should those occur it will be before day break or within one hour after that time frame.

AFTER THE RAIN (CHANCE) EARLY SUNDAY: Once again, will undercut forecast high temperature forecasts I'm seeing so widely media-fied early this afternoon. Believe the cold front associated with the original modified air mass "Pineapple Express" will be cutting the peninsula in half from NE to SW at sunrise and cross all of Central Florida from NW to SE between 6:00AM -9:AM.

My take is that the warmest time of day will be during those hours ahead of the front. Winds will quickly shift to a more WNW component after frontal passage with a clearing line of clouds to follow within the 3 hours after its passage. I can hear the "Polar Express" horns blowing throughout the day as its core passes just to the north and meets the "Pineapple" off South Carolina by Sunday night. The modified "Pineapple Express" air mass is about to become more of "Polar Express" airmass heading toward Monday morning.

MEANWHILE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY: For the most part, the entirety of the day light hours of Sunday will be defined by cold air advection, modifying from Pacific to Polar origin behind the departing low pressure system and in advance of the cold arctic push. As such, expect the air not only to be very cool all day but very windy as well with wind gusts exceeding the 30mph range, especially across and near any bodies of water. After our warm morning, assuming one is awake to feel it, the majority of the day will be spent with the temperature holding steady near or just above 50F from Cocoa Beach to Orlando (roughly SR 520)...and colder in the mid-40s further north, while south of this line mid-upper 50s will dominate, the further south one goes, the warmer and into the 60s it can be.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Cold air advection will continue all day Monday from sunrise to set. Again believe the high temperature forecasts are being over played for North Brevard toward Daytona Beach and inland areas near I-4 north of Orlando for Monday afternoon. The NW wind trajectory will be pointed roughly from west of Ocala toward Cape Canaveral...as such, believe this area will fail to breach th 5-0 Fahrenheit mark, or if so, for only a brief time (and not long enough in my mind).

Regardless, with the elevated wind (although not as strong as that on Sunday afternoon), it will still feel too cool for comfort. Monday morning would see an advection freeze late in the overSundaynight to earlyMondaymorning hours, but this episode doesn't not look to be quite as infringing as the past one we had.

Due to the wind, temperatures spreads won't be as amplified as they would be under a radiational cool-off, with probably a lot of mid-upper 30s to be found but playing with and under the freezing mark north of a line running east/west from Daytona Beach North.

TUESDAY: Another cold day in store but with significantly less wind. Still, cold is cold enough. This will likely be the coldest morning of the remaining days of 2010 for most of Central and South Florida. Afternoon temperatures should present us with more reasonably sane afternoon high temperatures, but still well below what would be considered 'normal'...mainly in the mid-upper 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Let the flip flip begin! Cool/to cold start to the day...but high pressure associated with the tail end of our "Polar" cold engine shifts east as do our surface winds. Afternoons back into the 60s and overnight lows by the following morning (Thursday) significantly warmer than those of Monday, Tuesday, and for some Wednesday and well into the 40s.

THURSDAY-NEW YEARS DAY: Could be a big warm up to end the year as height levels for the standard 850mb -500mb levels are forecast to be on a BIG rise and winds maintain a SE-S-SW component for a good 2-3 days, at least. This could be a big warm up all the way up to the Eastern Great Lakes in fact, and would provide the long term, southerly wind component which we have not seen in a very long time; that which would be necessary to successfully and completely modify the air mass into a greater atmospheric depths of which we have not seen for quite some time.

Footnote: Should this tremendous air mass modification indeed take place, this would provide the fuel for a vigorous Gulf Storm type system to take shape during the first week of the 2011. The models have been flipping around with the prospect, but for now will only raise a timid yellow flag with one eye open at a potentially significant severe weather event for someone in the Deep South to Florida during the first week of January.

"A Nation Divided" This Afternoon - Forecast Havoc East of the Mississippi

Images: Included is a forecast map for around midnight showing a 'cold front'/wind shift line over or near Central Florida as a full latitudinal blocking ridge axis extends across the nations midsection from near the Arctic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico. See below for why this is so problematic for the weather forecast in the next few days. I've included a map of Canada and the Arctic Ocean for kicks.

REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY: Widespread mid-70s degree temperature readings have overspread much of the Florida peninsula this afternoon with steady 'generally' westerly winds prevailing around 15mph in most areas. The coolest spots are along the immediate west coast close to the Gulf waters and, of all places, the Florida Keys where temeratures are in the upper 60s. Skies would be considered partly cloudy in most if not all locales as well.

As we can see by the graphic included, a cold front which now extends across Central portions of Georgia and Alabama will move into Central Florida around midnight. There is little temperature variation associated with this boundary in looking at the latest surface observations, and as such I'm looking at this 'front' as somewhat as reassurance that high pressure stretching from the far reaches of Northern Canada to nearly the Gulf of Mexico is in full control of the Mississippi River Valley basin. This high pressure is going to be the thorn in our side from a forecaster's perspective everywhere east of the Mississippi River as we head into Christmas Day through two days after. See further down in this post for details.

In the meantime, I've annotated a very rough approximation of the front's location shortly after midnight tonight. As we can see, it will be located somewhere over Central portions of the peninsula and by morning will have nearly, if not totally, cleared the state. Behind the front winds take on a more northwesterly component for Thursday and steadily become more northerly during the early portions of the day. By mid-late afternoon they should be NNE-NE and weaken in speed as the high pressure system reasserts full control of the weather locally.

The first fly in the ointment in today's post is cloud cover associated with the boundary. For now, I'd expect partly cloudy sky conditions all evening possibly becoming overcast around midnight and through the pre-dawn hours. Just how much cloud cover remains after day break is a question mark in my mind, especially along and east of I-95 from Daytona to Miami. For now, we'll ride with partly cloudy skies, but a period of 'cloudy' could occur along the barrier islands region through early-mid morning Thursday at least. No rain though. Cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling tonight, mainly 50s along the coast and some 40s well inland. We will need to watch those clouds tomorrow from the Cape to Miami though, since it is not a total given we will see more sun than clouds Thursday.

THURSDAY: Winds from the NW from 10-18mph initially will gradually veer to NE by days end and weaken during the course of the day. Now behind the front, temperatures will remain in the mid-60s with the final outcome contingent on the amount (if any) of cloud cover closer to the coast as noted in the preceding paragraph. Either way, cloud cover or shifting, slightly onshore gradient winds will keep the high temperature in the mid 60s range with lows again dropping into the low to mid 50s overnight with 40s inland and further north..

FRIDAY-CHRISTMAS EVE: Light onshore flow and high pressure nearly overhead will provide for another day of partly cloudy skies and another cool day, yet still comfortable with temperatures comparable to Thursday or perhaps a little warmer with less chance of cloud coverage initially. I've been secretly hoping for a reason for the immediate coast to see some afternoon sea-fog to come in on Christmas Eve. I've NEVER seen such events forecast before hand as they are very rare, maybe every 10 years or so from my experience. There was one such event just two years ago, so we aren't due yet...but maybe Santa can grant this one simple wish.

At this points is where I'd like to interject. Energy associated with the weather system generating the rains over Southern California will have moved east, much of which will try to 'divert' the blocking ridge of high pressure by hedging across S. Texas. Thus, instead of taking a more NE-ENE trek it will ride east to ESE across Texas. Not all of the energy, but some of it. Exactly how much is totally uncertain. Temperatures yesterday and today have been very warm over extreme South East Texas (not so much today). But regardless, this heat will provide the ample fuel necessary to instigate surface low cyclogenesis over the far Western Gulf by late Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. The surface low will continue to develop as it tracks east across the north central Gulf Chrismas Day.

Meanwhile, in viewing the forecast mid level winds for Christmas Day, believe a lot of mid-upper level clouds could eject eastward well in advance of this developing scenario that will spread across all of Florida over night or beginning sometime Christmas Day. Temperatures will remain moderated overnight and during the day Christmas as a result.

CHRISTMAS DAY: No frontal passage as previously presumed. Models have delayed the front's arrival by a full 12-18 hours, and if the trend continues, could be delayed another 6 hours. Good for Florida initially. This means, Christmas Day now looks to be rain free; but again, I think we'll see a lot of clouds keeping high temperatures in the 60s rather than the advertised 70s I'm seeing on TV. Winds will initially by southerly and light with the dawn of day, but picking up increasingly from the SSW-SW during the day.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT-BEYOND: Instead of getting into the nitty-gritty details at this point for this time frame, it is best to leave this time frame open for what might be coming down the pipe...a lot will be contingent upon 1) the track the surface low takes as it approaches the state; and 2) strength of the surface low (not to mention the other technical variables involved).

As it stands, we could be seeing reason for thunderstorm development (some severe) by late overnight Christmas Night toward day break the day after Christmas. At this point, the surface low looks to cross North Central or Central Florida shortly after sunrise Sunday...but my gut says it may end up crossing even further south with greater intensity. If so, the threat for severe weather, especially for South Central Florida will be even greater. Either way, the chance for rain at this point looks pretty high sometime after midnight Christmas night through mid-afternoon the day after Christmas (Sunday).

This will all be refined once the storm system works its way across the Desert SW region...but even more so when we see the result of this system as it interacts with the 'hot spot' over Eastern and Southeast Texas over night Thursday through Friday and as the system morphs while crossing the Gulf of Mexico.

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE: Eventually, whatever track the low pressure system takes, it stands that the front will rapidly clear the state by Monday at the utmost latest followed by steady cold air advection from the Northwest all day Monday. And again, possibly as soon as early Sunday morning. Either way, cold air advection will be in place Monday and Tuesday making for two cold days. It does not look as if this cold period will be as chilly as our earlier counterpart last week at this time. But freezing temperatures as described in yesterday's post accompanied by a good dose of wind will likely result in issuance of wind chill advisories and warnings for Monday and possibly Tuesday under a 'freeze advection' type synoptic set up.

NEW YEARS: What, how can one come up with a forecast for New Year's Eve/Day when we already have our hands full not only with tomorrow, but with the days surrounding Christmas? Had to throw this in because I couldn't help myself -- strictly for amusement. That is, if the ECMWF and GFS hold fast, we could be in for a big WARM UP come New Year's Eve/Day time frame. Can it be? We'll see, but did want to throw that tasty tid bit out there for chomping on until this time frame draws closer. Consider it a stocking stuffer.

True, Blue, and 72 (For Some Folks Today)

NOW: High pressure is centered very close to the Lake/Orange County line and dropping South to SSE pretty quickly during the past two hours. All of Central and South Florida will be under its tranquil affect today resulting in totally sunny sky conditions, light winds, and comfortable temperatures.

TODAY: As noted above, Florida is under the affect of surface high pressure today. The biggest challenge for this post was how warm it would get today over Central Florida, namely if we would reach the 70F degree mark. No doubt, the area from West Palm Beach and points south will (if they have not already)...The Weather Channel is advertising a high in the low 70s today but I'm not so sure. My final gander, to toss in my two cents worth, is that the areas from near Melbourne to Sarasota and points north will flirt with the big 7-0, but never quite reach it. Some pockets near that line could reach or just break through for a short period (less than an hour), but the majority of the afternoon hours will be spent in the 67F-69F degrees range.

Further south, especially from West Palm to Miam (namely the SE Quadrant) they will see low and a few mid-70s for the majority of the afternoon. But no matter how one slices the thermal pie, with light winds and full sunshine at play it will be a very nice day, especially when out of the shade and totally protected from any light wind that can be mustered up.

TONIGHT: Surface high will continue to drop to South Central Florida and retrograde to the west a bit as a weak frontal boundary begins to edge in from the north which will be located over N. Georgia toward South Carolina to North 'Bama. Light winds and a clear sky will permit temperatures to fall to comparable levels of this morning, but likely a little warmer in those areas that got the coolest last night...but low 50s, and maybe even some mid 50s over the barrier islands tomorrow morning will be much more widespread than they were this morning.

WEDNESDAY: Rapid temperature recovery after 8:30am with all areas breaching 70F. Widespread low and mid-70s degree readings over South and Central locations, and even North Florida with a mainly west wind around 15mph. No wind off the cooled Atlantic ocean waters will permit the air over the landmass to flow across the barrier islands with only minimal modification as it crosses the inland waterways.

The cold front, which is actually going to be more of a wind shift line more than anything else, will pass over Central Florida during the overnight hours leading into Thursday morning. Westerly winds preceding the demarcation line will become northerly and eventually light from the NNE-NE during the day time Thursday with a return to high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s rather than 70s.

THURSDAY: Morning will break with inland lows in the low-mid 40s with the barrier islands in the low 50s. A light wind, but likely of a slight on shore component during the day will keep high temperatures in the mid-60s during the afternoon, with any clouds that might have occurred during passage of the boundary all but gone. Thus, Thursday will be much like today although a bit cooler everywhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS CHRISTMAS EVE: Another uneventful day in store with highs in the mid-upper 60s and a few clouds with light winds. Low temperatures comparable to that of Thursday morning. A nice, 'on the warm side of winter', evening in store for church services will be rain free. A decorative sweater or jacket will fit the bill nicely for those in full 'festive gear' mode.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Cold front still forecast to be across the panhandle will advance south during the course of our ritual activities. Rains and clouds to the north will spread south accordingly, and as such the majority of Christmas Day over Central Florida will likely be partly cloudy to cloudy with some light rain to occur after the 1pm time frame just about anywhere, holding off until later further south. Southwest wind around 15-20mph will precede the cold front with high temperatures being held at bay due to cloud cover, mostly in the mid-60s Central, and maybe low 70s south. Measurable rain fall totals will be occur across the Central portions, but think the most commonly found will be between a trace - 0.3". South Central and South Florida will fare much better during the daylight hours and end up with even less rainfall chances and less likelihood of measurable amounts when all is said and done.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT - THE DAY AFTER: Front will clear the state by daybreak December 26th with cold air advection and NW winds in full swing the entire day, Sunday. Lows in the 40s with highs likely not reaching above the mid 50s with a rapid cool down as we head toward sunset.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: These two days look to be the coldest in entirety from sun up to sun down for next week. Sky will be clear but far reaching freezing temperature levels, especially away from the coast (as usual) will be found, especially by Tuesday morning where freezing could be reached into western portions of Miami -Dade. Looks like there will be a lot of mid-20 readings, especially for North Central Florida, with upper 20s and low 30s being much more common across the peninsula. Daytime high temperatures might struggle to reach the low 50s on Monday afternoon over all of Central Florida.

"Solstitium" and Lunar Eclipse Tuesday

Image: Say hello to the official start of winter 2010-2011 tomorrow at 6:38pm EST. Lunar eclipse overnight tonight. Details below.

Dec. 21, 2010, 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UT), marks the winter solstice—the beginning of winter in the Northern Hemisphere and summer in the Southern Hemisphere. The winter solstice marks the shortest day and the longest night of the year. The sun appears at its lowest point in the sky, and its noontime elevation appears to be the same for several days before and after the solstice. Hence the origin of the word solstice, which comes from Latin solstitium, from sol, "sun" and -stitium, "a stoppage." Following the winter solstice, the days begin to grow longer and the nights shorter.

LUNAR ECLIPSE NIGHT: If you want to peak at the full eclipse, it will be sometime around 2:41AM - 3:53AM (EST) in the morning overnight tonight, but begin at 1:33AM EST.

TODAY: Skies finally cleared overnight and we are in for a mostly sunny day today. High pressure over the Ohio Vallely to start the day is building south and will be over the Deep South after sunset and roughly over the Peninsula Tuesday. Doesn't quite look like we'll gain on onshore component wind today or if we do it will be very light and restricted to the immediate coast, so clouds off the Atlantic appear as though they will remain offshore, perhaps a small speckling of stratocumulus in an otherwise dry air mass at the surface. Winds less than 12mph for the most part today under sunny skies will allow the temperature to reach the 60s today over Central Florida and approach the 70s over far SE Florida and the Keys.

TONIGHT: Surface high will have settled over North Florida with light and variable to near calm winds providing for good radiational cooling and drainage flow tonight; thus, coldest temperatures inland with the A1A corridor being the warmest - comparable to this morning's temperatures with widespread low 40s being the rule, warmer further south of Ft. Pierce.

TUESDAY: Winter will begin Tuesday night officially at 6:38pm. Whether one basis the start of winter from the meteorological or astronomical perspective, there's no doubt that it WILL be winter from either perspective by that time. High pressure will be directly overhead or centered just west of the state with a NW wind at the time under clear skies. High will be warmer state wide with mid-upper 60s being the rule for the north half of the state and low-mid 70s for the south half. This puts Brevard along the dividing line. But all in all a very pleasant day in store after a somewhat cold start to the day with a light wind.

WEDNESDAY: Weak frontal boundary over the Deep South will cross the entire peninsula during the late day with little fanfare other than maybe some clouds, but not expecting any rainfall with this one. Very little temperature change, if any with this boundary. In fact, the immediate coast could actually be warmer than past mornings by Thursday as winds will quickly gain an onshore component 12 hours after frontal passage. For the most part, the clouds will hold off until mid-late afternoon and persist for much of the overnight hours as the nearly 'backdoor boundary slides south...with any dynamics associated with it skimming the east coast offshore.

THURSDAY: Again, a warmer morning for the A1A corridor as Florida lies waiting in the wings for the next real weather maker to arrive on Christmas Day. In the meantime, little to speak of with temperature in the 40s inland (30s in colder pockets) and afternoon highs in the 60s to near 70 from South Brevard and points south. The immediate coast could eke out low 50s in the morning with a light onshore component wind, but this remains questionable north of Ft. Pierce.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Pre-cold frontal conditions, with SW winds materializing by afternoon under partly cloudy skies. This could be the warmest remaining day of 2010 with widespread low-mid 70 degree readings a possibility as clouds should not be prevalent enough to put a damper on otherwise full sunshine.

CHRISTMAS DAY (SATURDAY): Cold front over the Panhandle to start the day. SW winds, but believe the cloud cover will pre-empt the possibility that high temperatures will reach those of Friday except for over South Florida. The front now appears that it will swoop the entire state during the day and into the early evening far south. It's extent will be far reaching, with the boundary defined across the entire Gulf of Mexico and eventually reaching Central America by the day after Christmas.

As it stands now, believe the front will pass through Central Florida during the early and mid-afternoon and be located near Lake Okeechobee near sunset. As such, the warmest time of day will be around noon time, Christmas Day...in the mid-upper 60s at a stretch precluding any substantial heating due to cloud cover...with a good SW wind in advance of its passage. Tempeartures falling NOTABLY behind the front before dark over Central Florida with cloudy skies and some light rain possible both in advance and shortly after frontal passage. Skies clearing after dark.

SUNDAY: Cold! The front will clear Cuba and Jamaica, and may very well clear the Dominican Republic if that tells us anything. Believe we'll be hearing about freeze warnings (widespread) once again especially for Monday and Tuesday mornings with cold (by Florida standards) afternoon high temperatures as well supported by a breezy NW wind. This one might not have quite the gusto as our last 'big one', but it will be close enough to be comparable. Drat!

MORE ON THE SOLSTICE: In astronomy, the solstice is either of the two times a year when the Sun is at its greatest distance from the celestial equator, the great circle on the celestial sphere that is on the same plane as the earth's equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter solstice occurs either December 21 or 22, when the sun shines directly over the tropic of Capricorn; the summer solstice occurs either June 20 or 21, when the sun shines directly over the tropic of Cancer. In the Southern Hemisphere, the winter and summer solstices are reversed.

Was Friday the Warmest Remaining Day in 2010?

Image: Radar at 8AM this morning. Rain is definitely on the way today.

TODAY: A frontal boundary stretches across North Florida and well off to the SW toward the Bay of Campache. Along this boundary will be a least one, disorganized impulse of energy and appendant 'surface low' which will ride along the boundary as it sinks into Central Florida during the day. The low pressure areas are barely of closed circulation and are not even evident in the mid-levels, meaning they are not strong enough to generate any strong, organized severe weather or even thunderstorms for the most part when push comes to shove. However, they are transporting plentiful moisture with them as the traverse the boundary and cross Central and South Florida all day and thunder aloft is not out of the question.

As we can see by the included image, and as I've observed in the past two hours, precipitation is quickly spreading from WSW to ENE across the state, and such will continue to be the pattern today. Per latest model guidance, the worst of the rains should occur between 11am - 6pm, ending from west to east, with the east coast from Titusville to Miami the last to clear of actual rain, which could be well toward midnight if not after that time tonight.

Otherwise, and to answer the question in today post title, yes, I do believe yesterday was the warmest remaining day to 2011. Today will not be as warm solely by nature of the cloud cover and either evaporative cooling due to imminent rainfall approaching or actual rain itself dragging cool air down from aloft. Winds along the A1A corridor could maintain a slight S-SSE component for the majority of the day ahead of the low pressure bubbles, which is off the cooled ocean waters which is yet another reason to keep today's high temperatures held at bay and into the mid-upper 60s. The temperature could reach the low 70s from South Brevard and points south toward Miami , but don't think it will be as warm there as yesterday either.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY: The rain chances will wane greatly from west to east across the peninsula after dark, with a continued chance of a sprinkle on going until near sunrise along the barrier islands and south toward Ft. Pierce and West Palm Beach. I see the forecast on The Weather Channel and on local news channels for tomorrow advertising bright and sunny skies, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. Hope so though. The wind behind the front which won't be clearing Central Florida until sometime around the 4-8am time frame will initially be NNW but fairly quickly gain a more northerly component, which by the way along Central and South Brevard is 'on-shore' over the Barrier Islands and near Ft. Pierce. Lingering moisture behind the boundary could continue to generate mainly low clouds along the coast and south Florida for at least the first half of the day, but it will be rain free. As such, don't be surprised to see remaining clouds east of an Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to near Miami-Dade until at least noon time (if not later) on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-60s. On the other hand, I've outlined a pessimistic scenario, so no harm on learning toward optimism.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Very light winds and not so cold temperatures. I'd say "Cool" weather fits the bill with coastal lows in the 50s all locales along the East Coast with mid-upper 40s inland. Highs in the mid-upper 60s with some 70s over extreme SE Florida and the Keys under mostly sunny sky conditions.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Another spoke of energy will rotate around the low pressure area that will have moved off our coast tonight and have shifted NNE-NE during the early portion of the week. This "spoke", or frontal boundary, will likely go through 'dry' of rainfall, but be accompanied by some low-mid level clouds. This will be very close to being a 'back-door' front as it will be approaching from the N-NNE, swiping down the state with no foreboding windshifts or big pressure falls ahead of it. Any rainfall from this system will be limited to the immediate US-1 to A1A corridor from JAX to Miami. No big temperature falls from this system either as we will remain in generally 'cool' conditions after its passage.

TEMPERATURE RECAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2010: Not seeing any big cool downs through the remainder of the year, minus a more notable one between Christmas and New Years. For the most part, coastal lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Inland lows and toward the west side of the state in the 40s. Next best chance of rainfall after today and very early Sunday will be Christmas Day and again near New Year's Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Just a preempt forecast, seeing as how this is still a week away. Looks like Christmas Day could very well end up being very similar to today. The synoptic situation won't be quite the same, but the results will all come out the other end with similarities in regards to cloud coverage, rain chances, and temperature ranges.

NEW YEARS DAY: Wouldn't you know it, it's all in the timing, and if I learned anything from my Junior High Science Fair project, fronts at this time of year come through under 'normal circumstances' every 5-7 days. In this year's case, it looks closer to 6 as another front could go through with another rain chance on New Year's Day. Of course, this is pure speculation at this point. But maybe 35 years later, I can verify my Science Fair Project (tongue in cheek).

Much Warmer Through Saturday

SYNOPSIS: High pressure center almost dead overhead Central Florida this Thursday morning and getting poised to shift further toward the east and south during the early afternoon. Light SE flow just a few thousand feet above ground level (AGL) will translate to the surface later today. In the meantime, a cold frontal system is taking shape which stretches from the Carolinas SW' ward across S. Arkansas and into East Central Texas.

TODAY: Warming trend has already begun. Morning low here at Cape Canaveral was around 39F but by 10am had already warmed into the mid-upper 50s and about to already breach yesterday's high temperature of 59F on the porch. Much the same is occurring across the Peninsula. Early morning was interesting, with a temperature at Punta Gorda of 36F while Milton NAS in the Panhandle was 67F! A sign of things to come today.

High pressure over head resulted in calm to near calm winds early this morning, but the wind just above the surface is out of the ESE-SE as the high starts to retreat toward the ESE. Believe full retreat will be in order by around the 1-2pm time frame, at which time the wind will take on a more southwesterly component and temperatures warm accordingly toward th 70F, especially from Melbourne South. The north half of Brevard will be close to the mark though, but thinking the Cape Canaveral, Cocoa, Merritt Island to Titusville area will be mainly around 67-69F for the majority of the afternoon. A few widely scattered stratocumulus clouds were hovering overhead near the coast this morning indicative of the moistening, warming air mass awaiting in the wings just overhead. Awaiting, that is, to make a landing. We'll have touchdown!

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Continued SW winds all day with a few more clouds at various levels with a much warmer overnight low temperature. Believe the coolest temperatures will be found well inland ...in the 40s. Along and east of US1 up and down the coast the low should remain above 50F though with the 60s looming just offshore awaiting rising of the sun to harbor in yet another and even warmer day with widespread low-mid 70s from Ormond Beach to Brooksville south.

Meanwhile, the cold front will have entered the the Florida Panhandle where it will go stationary, generating widespread cloudiness and rains from near Tallahassee and points west of there.

SATURDAY: Front to remain stationary over far North Florida. WSW winds in the 10-15mph range for South and Central Florida. It may be that the east side of the state will feel the warmest temperatures since on that side of the state the wind will not be blowing across the by now cooled waters of the Gulf of Mexico...but rather have time to warm as they blow across the landmass before reaching the east side of the state. More partly cloudy skies will be in order, with maybe some nearly cloudy skies by late in the day due to high level cirrostratus clouds. But all in all, Saturday looks to be the warmest day of all for many to come.

The models have slowed on the cold front's progress, varying anywhere from a 6-18 hour delay on its arrival. Initially, and as written yesterday, it looked like the majority of Saturday after noon time would be pretty cloudy and wet for all of Central Florida...but we could still eke out another 12 hours of warm and dry air.

SUNDAY: Front to have finally sagged south into Central Florida by day break, making its passage during the course of the day. It looks like any rain associated with the boundary will hold off until after dark Saturday night, but begin before that time from a Tampa - Ocala - to south of St. Augustine line, teasing the Orlando area. By Sunday, daybreak, the rain will not be far away from Orlando to the coast. As such, cloudy for starters but still warm by comparison to days past. Might have the warmest temperatures of the day in the morning though, since it now appears the front will cross the entire Central Florida threshold during the mid-late morning hours. After which, they will remain steady or drop a bit under slowly clearing skies.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Post frontal conditions, but not so fast. Need to watch just exactly how fast and aggressively the entire boundary and its contents continues east and south. High pressure will build behind the front, but instead of approaching south Florida as was the case in our last cold episode, it will remain to the north. This could harbor in a more easterly flow and thus quick airmass modification behind the front...in other words, the weather on Sunday and Monday is not set in stone in my mind.

On the flip side, that's good thing if you don't like cold. The slower and longer the front takes to clear the area, the longer it will stay warmer. Unfortunately, it might also mean it will be cloudy longer, especially along and east of I-95.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Next front still poised to approach on Wednesday and will likely got through dry, not withstanding some clouds though. Again, no big cold surge to the freezing level anticipated with this boundary with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

TOWARD CHRISTMAS: The next cold and windy spell now appears will occur sometime around Christmas Eve to Christmas Day.

Wednesday, Thawsday, Fryday...So Long Ice!

Image: Frozen Flamingos Batman!

CURRENT: High pressure building south through much of the Deep South and down the spine of the Florida peninsula early this Wednesday afternoon, although there seems to be a secondary core in the NE Gulf of Mexico upon satellite imagery investigation. So nicely placed, that the warmest temperatures are found along the extreme western Panhandle where some 60 degree temperatures are being reported with a return southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure center. Everyone else is fairing nicely under mainly clear skies with a NW wind other than some what appears to be 'wash over' near Tallahassee where some mid level clouds are now evident.

TODAY: Most everyone is in the 50s over Central and South Florida this afternoon, with areas from West Palm and points south flirting around the big 6-0 mark. Such will remain the same for the day's remainder, with central portions remaining in the low-mid 50s, southern portions in the upper 50s to maybe a tick above 60. Upper 40s and lower 50s further north. Light and variable winds for the most part as the high pressure settles in for the evening.

TONIGHT: Light and variable winds under clear skies will set the stage for undoubtedly prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow for the majority of the overnight hours. It may be that some of the coldest spots by sunrise will be near Lake Okeechobee rather than further north as high pressure looks most likely to be centered over the big lake near sunrise. Return, southerly flow further north and west may actually keep that area (NW Florida) warmer in comparison. Freezing temperatures will likely be restricted to inland areas away from either coast but not be nearly as widespread as the past two mornings. The air mass is still pretty dry, so a quick drop in temperatures will commence as the sun gets low to the horizon late this afternoon. The driest of air could be on the move as well, and frost might be an agricultural concern well inland..."strawberry fields forever", hope so.

In fact, contingent upon how fast the high pressure area continues its ESE push off the Florida East Coast, some areas...especially along the coast from Cape Canaveral to Miami might bottom out sometime during the wee hours and maybe even go up a few degrees before sunrise. All in all, not shabby for one last fling at the truly cold stuff. Regardless to whether any warm up can occur before sunrise along the East and Southeast coas or not.....

THAWSDAY: Big warm up in store. We can pack away the thermal underwear, wool caps, gloves, and Gortex face masks (doesn't everyone have one of those in Florida?). Temperatures a good 5-8 degrees warmer for the most part as a starter to the day once out the door, and warming by 10 degrees more than today by afternoon with a SSW-SW wind a'blowin' gently under continued mostly clear skies.

For example, most areas will see the temperature rise by about 35 degrees tomorrow between 7AM - 2PM! Highs in the upper 60s widespread with lower 70s likely restricted for those in the south half of Brevard County and all points south. Expecting temperatures along the coast to remain in the 40s tonight along the US1 to A1A corridor up and down the east coast other than near J-Ville.

Either way, those 10 degrees in the afternoon (warmer than today) are going to make a big difference tomorrow. I draw the line when it gets below 67F (something magical about that temperature) when it comes to the temperature at any time, day or night.

FRYDAY: Well, maybe not quite that warm, but the intent is all good. Temperatures in the 70s becoming more widespread with lows along the coasts in the mid-upper 50s but likely in the 40s west of I-95. Partly cloudy skies with rains in the Panhandle and WSW winds around 12-18mph during the afternoon. Great way to end the work week.

SATURDAY: Nice, warm start to the day with clouds on the increase. Rains and maybe some thunderstorms should already be underway across the Panhandle and most of North Florida at sunrise, which will be moving east and south throughout the day. Looks like they should enter the Orlando area near noon time or shortly thereafter and rapidly engulf the remainder of South and Central Florida during the remainder of the day and into the night. Once the rain starts it might be tough to be rid of it...so if venturing out earlier in the day it might be wise to head out prepared for rain by early afternoon, if not sooner. Due to the cloud cover and evaporative cooling of rainfall likely evaporating before reaching the ground initially, don't believe high temperatures will make it quite as warm as those on Friday. Good chance of rains until midnight going in to Sunday.

SUNDAY: Front will be passing through at daybreak, and now appears will be across South Florida. Timing on this system has been far from perfect so far, so undoubtedly refinement of the rain and cloud clearing details will be required in tomorrow's post. This won't be a big, polar blast like the last one...but it will be cooler again by Monday with highs back below what we'd expect on a "normal' day...something like lows in the 40s and high in the 60s for a good portion of next week or almost 10 degrees below normal.

Another front approaches around Wednesday, but at this point appears will have little impact other than to entrench the temperatures already in place with a shot of cloud cover during its passing.

Wind Chill and Freeze WARNINGS in Effect Now!

Image: Yup, that's my porch thermometer at 7AM reading 28F, and hedging toward a 27F mark during the coldest time of the morning! There's a breeze adding to the 'inconvenience''. Images also show the breadth of the cold air expanse as well as how dry the air is. Wind chill and freeze warnings are in affect!! From a 'porch perspective' this is the coldest it has been in my location in 5 years, and colder than it EVER GOT last winter by a good 5 degrees just to put things in perspective.

TODAY:An advection cold air infiltration process is in full throttle early this Tuesday morning across all parts of Florida at sunrise. Crystal clear skies and very dry air at all atmospheric levels accompany the "Polar Express". No joking here today, this is cold by Central and South Florida standards. Maybe ironically, it's not as cold in North Florida as it has been already many times this cold season where low 20s have been observed already. In fact, Tallahassee this morning is barely any colder than my porch. That's the nature of an advection cold though, sometimes.

For the remainder of the day, temperatures this afternoon will be comparable to yesterday from near Cape Canaveral to Crystal River on the West Coast. It was warmer in Melbourne yesterday than it was for its northern neighbors just to the north and in the same county (Brevard), where the mercury struggled to break out of the 40s such as in Cape Canaveral and Titusville. Such will be the case today, however, do believe that the folks south of the line I just described above will be colder today, from Melbourne all the way to Miami where temperatures will struggles with the 50s today.

TONIGHT: Another cold night in store. In my mind, as I investigated yesterday as well, it is questionable as to whether the perfect conditions will manifest for a classic radiationally 'escaping' freeze (radiational cooling) by Wednesday morning, since winds will yet to come to near or at calm as the high pressure system will still be working SSE from the lower Mississippi Valley and not quite overhead, and as such we'll still have a bit of a pressure gradient at play. And as such, some wind. Either way, tonights temperatures will likely be even colder further south where already FreezeWarnings are in place, and it might be of longer duration one where it does get to freezing. Don't think it will get any colder tomorrow over Central Florida, or not by much, than this morning.

WEDNESDAY: Widespread freezing temperatures over the entire state in the morning with record low temperatures in jeopardy of being broken -- and hopefully not the water pipes. Still very cool in the afternoon too, but with very light wind and clear skies making for much tolerable conditions. Highs over Central and South will reach the low to mid 50s everywhere, and warmer toward Lake Okeechobee, Miami, and the Keys. High pressure will be passing overhead during almost peak heating yesterday making for what will be the most pleasurable conditions possible, all temperatures aside.

WEDNESDAY EVENING -THURSDAY MORNING: The high pressure passes over the state and moves further to the ESE and into the Atlantic with return southerly component flow commencing across the South Half of the Peninsula over night. That said, Thursday morning temperatures will be a good 10 degrees warmer than days past, and afternoon temperatures will come close to following suit with widespread low to mid 60s. Again, warmer further south.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A storm system starts to take shape in the Deep South while Florida remains on the backside of clockwise circulation around high pressure off to the east, the result being continued SW winds and warm air advection. Another 10 degree jump in morning low temperatures along the coasts and afternoon highs approaching 70F, most likely on Friday north of a West Palm to Sarasota line where it will likely still be in the 60s on Thursday. Widespread 70s on Friday and partly cloudy skies, with a few showers popping over the Panhandle as well as over S. Florida.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: Storm system gathers a little more momentum and moves toward the Eastern U.S. Seaboard, dragging another cold front behind in a somewhat strangulated fashion. The approaching boundary combined with southerly winds having been in place for a good 48 hours preceding its approach will abet in the formation of clouds and rain showers, most definitely on Saturday...chances of rain for the majority of the day in place, but not an 'all day rain' by any means. We can whittle down the timing of best rain chances in a future post.

LATE SATURDAY: Cold front works through the state and a return to cold air. But nothing like what we are now experiencing. More like a seasonable cold spell that will be a kick in the bucket after these past couple of days.

"Thar She Blows!" - Batten the Hatches

CURRENT SYNOPSIS: High pressure at the surface is in 'retreat mode' and off the SE Florida Coast as the highly publicized cold front moves down the Florida Peninsula. MAKE IT STOP! Images clearly delineate the clouds associated with the front proper, and the wind shift and marked temperature drop boundary clearly pronounce the fronts arrival as a surface entity of dreadful proportions.

TODAY: Cold front on the way as I write. The clouds along the N-W'trn horizons became visible less than an hour ago to the naked eye, and are already overhead in broken to scattered fashion. There is some rain associated both ahead and just behind the front. Surface winds are a stealthy 12-32mph in the area along the Space Coast early this afternoon with temperatures around 70F plus or minus a degree or two. Further north within the boundary the temperatures are in the mid 50s, and already into the upper 40s further north and west still. Timing will take the front through Orlando by 1-3pm and across the Space Coast in the 4-6pm time frame. Accompanying the front will be some light rain, overcast skies, and brisk WSW winds.

TONIGHT: After dark, the clouds will break up, temperatures fall, and winds become more W to WNWly. Cold air advection will be in progress relentlessly all night as wind chills become a driving force.

MONDAY: Cold from the Florida perspective. Daytime sunshine trying to mix with the cold air still filtering in will make the wind all the more brisk. I'm seeing the forecasts, but not buying into a forecast high breaching 50F, and if so for only a very brief time. Expecting the temperature to be in the 40s all day for the most part north of a Vero-Tampa line. It will feel much colder though with the wind making the cold air penetrable through every crack and crevice. Beware of north facing structures that will feel the full brunt of the wind minus sunlight.

Cold air blowing briskly across the Gulf of Mexico waters could very well induce a stratocumulus deck which could engulf much of the south half of the peninsula from near Sarasota - Ft Pierce adding bite to bark (or vice versa). Don't think we'll quite see the freezing mark in the morning but evenly distributed temperatures all locales in the mid-upper 30s are a good bet for all of Central Florida, a little warmer further south and of course colder to the north of a Daytona Beach-Crystal River Line where it will indeed be freezing.

It does not look like we will see any ice crystals falling from the clouds on Monday; in fact, probably other than those areas noted above where stratocumulus looks like a good bet, the north half of the state should be all coasts clear blue.

TUESDAY: Very cold start with widespread freezing temperatures beginning in the wee hours and lasting for quite a while. This could qualify as a HARD freeze for many areas inland as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Still the wind to deal with; this will be an intrusive, wind driven cold spell of most unaccommodating nature all day. Perhaps a few degrees warmer during peak heating than Monday but we'll still be clicking our heels three times: 'There's no place like home'. Oh pray tell, the heat is on there! Winds to die day a few hours after sunset.

WEDNESDAY: Continued unfavorable conditions for Florida agriculture, pets, and humans alike. High pressure will begin to move overhead, and the likelihood of radiational cooling as opposed to pure advection cooling will be at its greatest likelihood to occur Wednesday morning. As such, cold the whole way down to the tippy tip toe of the Peninsula but warmer along the intracoastals where warmer air above the bodies of water will be permitted to ooze across the near by land areas which they either surround or closely border due to the lack of wind which would otherwise not permit this to occur. Afternoon high temperature to rebound to reasonably sane; to that of which we've become almost accustomed to lately and well in to the upper 50s and 60s...warmer the further south one goes of course.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Better yet! The surface high pressure center will shift east of the state as the upper-mid level trough over the Eastern United States lifts a bit north and allows warmer air awaiting in the wings way down there south of Cuba to work its way north. No more freezing temperatures to deal with ...and afternoon high temperatures reaching the mid-upper 60s; 70s are highly questionable though north of a Vero-Tampa line.

SATURDAY: A perturbation in the upper levels could sink another boundary (cold front) down into North and Central Florida harboring a return to cloudiness and a rain chance. Not looking for a sudden cold blast this time, but rather a gradually seductive and permeating chill in the air will return without nearly the gusto as the system coming through today. No freezing or near freezing temperatures are foreseeable any time before or during Christmas for South or Central Florida beyond this coming Wednesday.

To cut to the chase, tonight through Wednesday morning it's survival of the fittest! Which, in reality, is a total joke compared to what other people in the United States around the Upper Mid West and the Northeast states are having to contend with. But each man has his demons...one learns to live and cope with it as best can.

Florida Snow Monday?!

(Image: That is what fog looks like from above this morning over Florida)
SYNOPSIS: Not much new on the storm front this morning. Fog, some dense with visibility reports of less than 1/4 or even 1/8 of a mile have filtered in to the reporting offices across Central Florida. The extent of the area covered by the fog is noted per the included visible satellite image. This was as of 9am, and loops show that it has not budged since day first broke. As such, believe it will be breaking up between 10:30-12:00pm...or at least thinning out considerably during that time frame. Should be gone by 1pm.

TODAY: Making the large assumption the fog will break, considering it would be highly unusual for it not to, the remainder of the day from noon time onward will be quite nice with a light NW wind and temperatures reaching the low to mid 70F's.

TONIGHT: Another pleasant but cool evening in store with light winds, fog again possible but will be quick to clear after daylight in those areas where it does form.

SUNDAY: Pleasant start to the day as WSW-SW winds pick up by late morning under partly cloudy sky conditions. A cold front will already be entering the Panhandle. The one I've already harped on in previous posts. Timing is still an issue as to when it will cross East Central Portions of the state, as it could anywhere between 1pm - 6pm. Prior to frontal passage we will be completely overcast with some light rain showers possible. If there is to be any thunder in association with the front I believe it will be well offshore either coast.

Due to extensive cloud coverage, afternoon high temperatures will fail to reach 70F in Central Florida, but south Florida could still eke out some better warmth.

LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING: No matter which model verifies, the front will have made a complete pass through Central Florida by 7pm-8pm. We will remain within the clouds for a brief time after dark, and maybe some light rain....but by 10pm fully expecting the NW winds to come in aboard 'The Polar Express". Next stop....Central and South Florida...before taking a detour back to the north, but leaving behind cold air in its wake.

MONDAY: Very cold by our standards...the afternoon high temperature will be similar to what the low temperature was this Saturday morning; however, it will be accompanied by very gusty NW winds adding quite a wind chill factor to the equation. We all know how that goes.

SNOW?! Well gee whiz. Wouldn't you know the GFS is bringing a second shot of moisture and energy over the state during the noon-4pm time frame on Monday to add insult to injury. Could mean a cloud bank with light, evaporating precipitation falling from it should this materialize. Temperature by this time of day should be too warm for snow anyway...BUT, never say never. Temperatures aloft will be cold all the way up (below freezing) Best chance looks at this time to be the N. Brevard - Daytona and into Seminole Counties. Also over by Crystal River on the west coast. Sometimes the strong winds blowing across the warmer waters has a perverse effect, but I'd expect that the temperature at the surface would have to be a good 10 degrees colder for snow to materialize (as has occurred in the past when we are in the upper 20s). And even snow, it would hardly qualify as 'snow fall'...I bring this up only out of interest sake at this point.

TUESDAY: Too cold again, with slightly less wind. But sunny for sure on this day. I've been noticing that although the models are taking the freezing line much further to the north at the surface, the 0 degrees C line at 925mb and 850mb is still way down in South Florida by Tuesday morning. I think that this temperature will mix down to the surface, especially by Wednesday morning when the atmosphere is most likely to decouple. As such, a solid deep freeze might well be in the cards for almost the entire state Tuesday morning with only the barrier islands east of US1 remaining clear of prolonged freezing temperatures, if any at all.

WEDNESDAY: Another freezing morning in many areas, but less in coverage. A rebound in afternoon temperatures begins as we get back into the low 60s.

THURSDAY: Back to sanity as a much more zonal flow pattern develops across the United States. No big chills appear to be encroaching in on most of the state for quite some time through Christmas at this point. Still looks like a west to east boundary could lay across the Panhandle region which would sink into Central portions next Saturday creating clouds and maybe some light rain, but no big cold air blast is associated with it. In short, next Saturday might not be all we like to make it up to be in terms of "pleasantness". It could be kind of gray all day...but we still have a week to go before then...and enough on the platter to deal with in the short and mid-term.

"The Polar Express" - Santa Hitches a Ride

SYNOPSIS: Inverted trough off the Florida east coast with weak surface low centered roughly just ENE of Daytona Beach early this afternoon is creating cloud cover and temperature havoc for much of north Florida, unbeknownst to those further south who are basking in the warmest and blue sky weather conditions that surpass those of which have been experienced in almost a week. A look at the images included in this post paint the picture. Cloud cover is over North Florida is preventing insolation of full sunshine, and the result is a very cool day indeed in that area.

Elsewhere, high pressure building across the remainder of the peninsula not affected by the backwash of the low pressure system is producing abundant sunshine and light winds as the cold air that has been in place the past several days lifts north.

TODAY: Much of what we see early this afternoon over Florida will continue to remain the case through sunset, or close to it. The only improvement so far further north has been that the rainshowers that were plaguing the Daytona Beach area seem to have shifted north and lightened up in intensity. Clouds and very cool temperatures will remain the story there through sunset.

TOMMORROW: The inverted trough/low pressure area shifts further north and begin to interact with a developing Plains system. The two will become one during the weekend creating dismally cold/wet conditions for the folks in the NE United States. But back to tomorrow, locally over Florida the weather will be much improved. Wherever it is sunny and warmer today will be even more so on Saturday.

Great day for a Cocoa Beach Christmas Parade. Chris Kringle, a.k.a. Santa Claus, will be visiting downtown Sin city with an evil thought planted in the back of his mind as attendees bask in full sun. He knows he needs a ride back to the north pole after a full year of rest in the tropics, and Cocoa Beach is where he'll be picking up the Polar Express for his ride back to the North Pole.

SUNDAY: Toot Toot! Another nice day in store for starters, but clouds like increasing by late morning to early afternoon as the train pulls into station. This is one train I don't want to catch, but in passing it seems it has some luggage to drop off. Bundles of cold air...DON'T OPEN UNTIL CHRISTMAS! Sunday probably won't be quite as warm as Saturday due to clouds by the time of peak heating. There has consistently been lack of consensus as to when the front will cross Central Florida between the GFS and NAM. The NAM, which normally is the faster and most aggressive with all things meteorlogically notable, is instead the slower of the two. The disparity comes in the form as to whether the front will cross the entire south half of Florida between the hours of 11-3am (GFS) or 6pm-10pm (NAM).

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In most cases, the powers to be that officiate on forecast dispersal for the media either opt on one or the other, or take an average of the two. I think it's going to be one or the other, with little room for hedging. In this case, I'm opting in optimism toward the NAM (but is it ever entirely correct?), if for no other reason than because I hate to see the train pull in to station.

Unfortunately, the tracks are being layed...maybe the engineers will go on strike for a while and delay the inevitable...that is, will favor the NAM solution.

Either way, increasing clouds with a WSW wind to start the day...when the front passes...you'll know it. Some light rain is entirely possible to be mixed in with the clouds, but any prolonged heavier that that activity will be short-lived and quick to move on. I wouldn't go anywhere far from home without luggage (a coat) if you plan on doing so after 1pm and plan on being gone longer than 4 hours. This is one of the cases where it can't hurt to be over prepared.

No matter when the front goes through, "The Polar Express" will blast on across the state, picking up Santa on the way...leaving behind a rushtling stir of arctic air which will then settle down over the state into Wednesday all areas.

MONDAY: Cold winds will blow through the trees overnight while we're under the blankets Sunday night, don't leave the dog out unattended. Temperatures drop all night with pretty windy conditions. The NAM and GFS come into full agreement that the freezing line Monday morning will be running right across Central Florida from near Cocoa Beach to Orlando. Not sure it will be quite that cold though, but mid-30s do not seem out of the question. Those temperatures, combined with a chilling wind will not make for a pleasant day. But hey, the sky will be blue. High temperatures will struggle above 53F. A little warmer further south of course.

TUESDAY: More of the same, with perhaps colder conditions inland and further south. Winds will let up a little but not entirely. The coast should be 'freeze conditions free' south of Daytona...but inland and toward the west side of the state down to Naples will be in for a long, deep freeze of possibly several hours. Afternoon to warm only a little from that which will be experienced Monday.

WEDNESDAY: Another cold night/morning, with winds letting up significantly. This might be the day of broadest covearge of near freezing temperatures under a light wind, radiational cooling regime...with widespread frost not unlikely for all but the A1A-US1 corridor. Warming a good 7-10 degrees though by early afternoon. With highs breeching 64F at least.

THURSDAY: All done. The conditions of early in the week should become a quickly faded memory as temperatures return to near normal, although probably just a few degrees below that. Looks like an extended period of zonal flow could be setting up across much of the country with fast moving systems zipping from west to east across the majority of the country, leaving SW Arizona and much of the south half of Florida being the warmest in the country. Too far out to say for sure, but the implications have been being made now for a few days. Looks nice for next Friday once again, but a pesky, stretched out frontal boundary might lay across the state in benign enough fashion to increase the high level cloud coverage (cirrus clouds) for the second half of next weekend.

Clouds and Cold Will Lift for the Weekend

Images: Posting the images shown because as the saying goes "A picture paints a thousand words". Satellite image shown depicts the extent of cloud coverage, and most pronouncedly, where it does not extend. Clear skies are not far away from East Central Florida, but South Florida sees no hope for the direcct sun rays today. Moisture and showers just off shore.

TODAY: Low pressure features are passing South and west of the Florida Keys this afternoon and upper level winds aloft are streaming over them, shearing the moisture laden upper level atmosphere across the South 1/2 of the state. Brevard County is currently on the northern extent of the receiving end of this event. Meanwhile, an inverted trough co-located near the Gulf Stream off shore in conjunction with what was noted yesterday as a weak low pressure area over the Northern Bahamas lies in waiting for the energies associated with the first feature to spread on in...

In the meantime, for the earlier portions of the afternoon, cloudy skies persist over much of the area for which this blog covers. If you are a reader and look outside at clear skies right now, you will stay that way. It's the folks further south of you that have the short term weather to contend with.

By later this afternoon, in the 4-6pm time frame, it is entirely possible the 850mb and some 500mb vorticity will act upon the inverted trough laying in waiting offshore the east coast. Additionally, the NNW surface winds should begin to veer more toward the NNE (from which winds just above the surface are already from)...providing for a deep enough, yet very shallow column of moisture sogged air to generate a more concentrated shallow cloud deck. Concentrated enough to result in precipitation over the barrier islands. Should this occur, it will be within an hour or two of sunset.

The fly in the ointment that should things align ever so slightly further to the east than anticipated, the rain will remain off shore...and in fact, the skies could even start to break up...but for now, I'm playing the devils advocate in gambling with model consensus. Any rain that will fall will be solely east of I-95, if not US1, from Oak Hill to Ft. Pierce. Further south, those areas into Palm Beach and Broward Counties are contending with the dynamics of an entirely different animal. Regardless, the end result is the same.

Afternoon high temperatures I expect will be much cooler than formally released by the press due to the cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling of any early stage rain that tries to fall but evaporates before penetrating the very dry air that is struggling to modify (as noted in yesterday's "spine of the state" dryness image).

TONIGHT: Should clouds remain in place, as is most likely, overnight lows will be much milder over those areas that will clear out further to the north. Those areas will be colder for sure without the radiation blanket of clouds thrust overhead.

FRIDAY: Still a tough call for the coast from Oak Hill and south. But, I do believe the rain chance can be removed altogether with the only thorn being the possibility of clouds, but do believe they will be on the decrease as well allowing afternoon temperatures to rise most notably into the upper 60s or near 70F degrees. Reason being the forecast winds at 925mb will weaken and loss their onshoreward directed component.

SATURDAY: Rain free and warmer both by night and by day. Could even maybe do some shorts by afternoon...but don't pack away the long johns just yet. Overall, Saturday looks to be the most comfortable, pleasant day on the shelf in entirety for some time to come.

SUNDAY: Very pleasant other than some increasing high clouds. Should be rain free all day with a warm southwest wind...but the folks in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida up toward Gainesville and eventually Ocala area will be first to see and feel the harbinger of things to come in the form of more cloudiness and rain before daylight ends. Further south into most of the Central and Southern Portions of the state we should remain precipitation free until after sunset.

This is different from earlier proposals for this time frame. That is, it looks like the cold front headed this way is going to be delayed (most conveniently) by several hours from what was previously thought. As such, not a bad day overall.

MONDAY: Cold front passes through overnight and morning dawns cold and very breezy. Could see our warmest temperature of the day in the morning...or whatever the temperature is at 10am might just hold steady there until late afternoon, after which it drops like a rock. Windy too from the NW-NNW. Monday is not going to be a fun day to romp about in shorts for sure. Have muffs, gloves, scarves, coats, ..will travel.

TUESDAY: Coldest morning of next week as winds die down a bit, but not entirely. On the other hand, a little warmer than Monday in the afternoon but not warm enough to change the wardrobe. Must point out at this time, that it does not look as though it will get as cold as advertised yesterday...in fact, not nearly as much so. Basically, it will be comparable to that which we've just experienced that past few days...give or take.

WEDNESDAY: Modification of the cold air mass fully commences as we await the next system

CHRISTMAS: Outlooks for this time frame will begin by Monday. For now, not expecting tremendously cold air to be in place, but the chance of precipitation may prove problemmatic. But again, it is unrealistically way to far off in time to do anything more than hypothesize. Can't even come up with a theorem yet no less.

Two Tales Of Winter Next 5 Days - James Bay Storm Machine in High Gear

Image: The 1km relative humidity this morning, shows just what we mean in addressing the "spine"of the state. Direct northerly, dry wind component right down midway. It is, in fact, dry to the spinal bone.

TODAY: Crisp morning with light winds is giving way to a cool afternoon with clear skies, other than some interesting contrails all over the place at 11am. Low pressure system is developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico, while another is trying to take shape near the N. Bahamas. The Gulf Low will move east, then more southerly with time as it approaches the Florida Peninsula overnight and then moves generally toward Western Cuba on Thursday. Bahama low lingers with little to no intensification in the short term.

Mostly sunny today, with an increase in some high clouds by late afternoon and into the early evening. Temperatures running well below seasonable norms once again today.

TONIGHT: Clouds on the increase mean an end to radiational cooling in the morning this day, and if anything, radiational warming (if there is such a thing) during the peak coolest hours of pre-day break Thursday, as the Gulf low approaches the Florida straits. Overnight lows probably a good 5 degrees warmer tonight, if not more so.

THURSDAY: The atmosphere is very dry right now as notable by the image included in today's 'dry to the spinal bone' image post. This air will be slow to modify, and as such, the precipitation shield portrayed by the NAM over the South 1/2 of Florida to be in place by daybreak is probably over done and will manifest only as low, overrunning warm air, cloud coverage initially. By late morning, energy at the low and upper levels associated with this system will gather with that of the system over the Bahamas. The result will be a backwash in the incumbent circulation from the NE along the coast from Daytona south to Vero Beach.

As such, cloudy conditions are expected for the day's entirety Thursday for most if not all but the Northern 1/3 of the state. The greatest chance of overrunning warmer air above the cold platter at the surface generating stratiform rain will be along the intercoastal. This is somewhat a hard pill to swallow, in that such an event is pretty darned unusual. So it is with bated breath I close my eyes and swallow the pill, hoping it goes down all the way without getting stuck. Because...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: If indeed the NAM (with the GFS coming into agreement) verifies, it will be the US1-A1A corridor from the Cape south to West Palm and maybe even Ft Lauderdale that could get wrapped up in isentropic backwash. In other words, lots of low clouds and rain. The greatest chance of such to manifest will be along the Brevard county intercoastal to Vero Beach. At best, it will just be cloudiness with no thermal heating to serve the soul which could put a bust on the high temperature outlook for this area. Folks further to the west might very well be carrying on their daily activities with no reserve and in complete ignorance to the conditions befalling their coastal cohorts just an hour drive away.

Seen it happen before. You leave Orlando under partly cloudy skies, only to cross I-95 heading toward the beach with a big cloud shield facing you dead ahead...which turns to light rain upon crossing the Indian and Banana Rivers. You get to A1A and it's an entirely different world from the one you left behind just an hour ago. Say it isn't so!

So to cut to the chase, best chances of rain, should there be any, will be from noon-dark along and east of US1 from Titusville to Vero, and over extreme S. Florida and the keys in association with the Gulf low. On a more positive note, this could all remain just offshore so we'll have to play it by ear.

FRIDAY: Warmer temperatures in the afternoon. For the most part, many areas will be in the clear. Most specifically N. Central Florida and down the west 1/2 of the state. But again, the Cape area comes into tricky territory. Exactly how quickly the entire conglomerate east of the state moves away remains up in the air. If it is to continue to rain anywhere it will be the A1A corridor...and at worst case, the whole way into Saturday. UGH. Then again, maybe not. I say it like it is, which is why I don't get paid for it. But for the most part, I think the east will be okay and in actuality could end up being a decent day overall. In other words, this is a 'crossing my fingers and hoping for the best' forecast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Much warmer with a high in the low 70s. Finally. In the meantime, the writing is on the wall now...considering the model consistency during the past 48 hours. As feared, the worst of the cold has yet to come, and when it arrives it will be WITH A VENGEANCE!

Good rain chances Sunday as moisture and upper level energy all come in perfect syncopation in the form of a band of rain (thunderstorms so far do not seem to be the operative term yet)...but in whatever form it develops, it won't be here to stay too long. That's good I suppose, even if we are in a severe drought. Who wants a cool and very windy rain anyway making everything all nasty? Expecting some pretty sharp clearing, but not for a good reason.

MOAN-DAY: For with the clearing by sunrise will come the Blast from Arctic Hell. Preliminary MOS data paints a low temperature for Orlando Tuesday morning of 26F with PAFB at 35F! That second one is debatable in my mind...heck, I'm shooting for freakin' 29F, with wind too. Cold all day Monday...and

TUESDAY:....today. More cold with a last hurray. Things will modify pretty quickly for mid week before the next storm system takes shape around the James Bay storm machine which is partly responsible for the misery that everyone from Florida to Maine is contending with into next week. Could be worse though...snow is not in the equation here which complexes the forecast challenged 10 fold.