Best Rain Chance From After Sunset to Sunrise - North of SR520

Images: First three images are 'actuals'. Satellite image clearly shows the southern extent of mid-level cloud coverage just north of 528 early this afternoon. We also see a forecast for moisture content (Integrated Liquid) in the last image for 1pm which matches nicely with satellite. The third image shows the average mid-level winds and greatest moisture, and lastly the first image shows an analysis of the current low pressure location near the Panhandle with a warm developing across North Central Florida with the warmer air to its south.

TODAY: Warm this afternoon everywhere south of the warm front (in the warm sector) where it is also most free of concentrated cloud cover. Warm front won't lift much further north than its current location, so things are very touch and go just along and north of The Beach Line this afternoon, particularly after 4:30pm. Further north, a strong bowing line segment (thunderstorm) is generating severe thunderstorm warning or two out of the Tallahassee NWS Office...this could put a kink in the forecast locally late today, amongst other numerous kinks.

But for the time being, sunny to partly cloudy sky conditions will prevail into at least mid-afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 70s south of the warm front. Winds are light and variable early this afternoon, but a more assured SSW-SW wind will develop around sunset or shortly thereafter as the cold front and low pressure system push east across the Western and Central Panhandle toward Jacksonville. I have noted some patches of ACCAS (altocumulus castellnus) clouds since late morning over my area, indicative of some mid-level instability. Might be important for the over night hours in regards to the strength of rain showers or maybe even some thunder.

In noticing the latest satellite trend, the sunniest spot was generally East Central Florida, with afternoon bubbly stratocumulus clouds forming to the S-WSW under the afternoon sun, heading this way. They should be here in an hour or two, with others filling in almost directly over head.

TONIGHT: Overcast over night with very mild temperatures holding into the low-mid 60s as SW-WSW pick up in the 15-20mph range. Good bet of rain from near Patrick AFB to just north of a Tampa Bay line anytime after 8pm through sunrise. Currently appears the heaviest (and best chance) of which will fall between 2AM - 6AM early Thursday morning. I do believe the region of most active weather tonight into early Thursday will occur right along and 20-30 miles either side of a line of where that warm front was drawn, namely very close to or just north of SR528. It is also along this area that some strong storms (due to wind gusts) could result from any isolated heavy activity. Rain accumulations could add up pretty good in one spot toward one inch, but such amounts aren't anticipated for more than a tiny sliver/zone due to the fact that storm motion will be a quickly paced from west to east at a good 30mph+.

It is worth noting that" forecast winds" from near 3000 - 10,000ft from around 2am - 7am will be from 30 to near 60kts right along the same area described above, which just so happens to be where I've seen the ACCAS clouds since late this morning. Actually, I've noticed that radar is showing rogue rain echoes over Central Florida which might actually be those ACCAS patches. Any true convection overnight will likely remain somewhat elevated , although per chance should a bubble of activity get more rooted in the boundary layer we'll be hearing thunder and maybe a warning for strong wind gusts will be issued while we're 'under the sheets'. Just a heads up. It will be worth watching the weather segment on the news tonight and/or the weather channel late today into tonight to monitor the latest and greatest (emphasized!). Also, I mentioned that bowing storm line segment earlier. Outflow from that system as it passes north of near Gainesville could have a ripple affect on timing of precipitation or intensity many hours from now. It's too early to speculate but that will be the first harbinger of several causes to pause in any reasonably good forecasters mind. At least for those along and north of the BeeLine.

THURSDAY: The front will be sinking south down the peninsula as the low moves off more toward the east rather than the northeast as zonal flow over the Southeast States prevails on the day Thursday. As such, the front will only go through in piece-meal fashion rather than with one big simultaneously occurring wind shift, drying, clearing, and shoving cold air blast as we often see happen in the winter. Thus, clouds and light rain chances could persist into early afternoon from near the 'magic 538' line and more certainly further south toward South Central Florida. In this regard, the high temperature tomorrow will probably never break into the 70s but rather hold steady from where it will be the time any rain begins or is near by (for those who do not get rain). In other words, mid-60s as a rule for now, but wouldn't be surprised to see even lower readings.

Do believe that any rain chances will go close to nil by 3pm, although one model shows that chance lingering until dark. I'm taking that as a sign of more significant clouds rather than actual rain though. The further south one goes toward South Central and South Florida the lesser the chance of rain will get, namely south of Vero Beach - Sarasota but there later also will be the clearing of clouds and lingering rain chances.

More definitive cooler air begins to finely make its presence none shortly after sunset and throughout all of Thursday night into Friday morning as clouds finely scour out and a minor kink in the zonal flow permits a northwest wind to develop and colder air to move in.

FRIDAY: Very cool day with lows very close to 41F and a high in the low 60s with ample sunshine. Winds will remain somewhat elevated from the WNW-NW for a time but back more toward the W for a brief time as another impulse passes to the north of little impact other than to reassert that indeed, a cold front has passed.

SATURDAY: Another cool start, but maybe not as cold as was previously feared. These systems are riding high and mighty (fast) in the ever changing nearly zonal (generally speaking) pattern, and as a result the changes are also rapidly paced. Regardless, another cool day with lows pretty much the same inland as Friday morning, but the coast might fare much better near 50F. The afternoon will again be cool though with another low 60 degree reading, perhaps some mid-60s. Some high cirrus streamers well overhead could pass from time to time with more west wind. This will also be the coolest morning for South Florida with mostly 50s.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: BIG UNCERTAINTY (exclamation point spelled out). Like the previous GFS run (only faster this go around) we do see a warm up on Sunday afternoon toward the 70F isotherm with another cool morning. This was mentioned yesterday. The biggest change for this period from the previous model run is a sooner over night wind shift to light onshore well before sunrise. End result, the A1A corridor could actually warm up during the overnight hours or hold steady most of the night. Otherwise, no big changes as temperatures begin to return toward normal readings after two full days of below normal for everyone Sunday afternoon. BUT...

LATE SUNDAY AND BEYOND: At this point, don't believe a word you hear until at least you see the news Saturday night, point blank. There's as many different possibilities by late Sunday as there is models. All of which could have a pretty significant impact for the weather all across Central and North Florida in regards to cloud cover and chances of rain already returning (depending on what one chooses to believe). As it stands now, South Florida again escapes the atrocious variabilities no matter what the outcome at this point...at least for now. What we will hear/see is what one particular forecaster favors, the end result will likely not end being any of what we hear today or even through Friday. Additionally, you could probably switch from one channel to the other and receive a different message.

Just to paint one scenario-cast: Another low pressure forms in the East Central Gulf late Sunday with a warm front stretched across Central Florida and isentropic lift along the boundary produces cloud cover and eventually showers. Which of course will affect the temperature. Not biting into any one solution for now, and thus will not project. That's one benefit of having a mere blog post (of few readers). I'm not obligated to come off sounding definitive or having to be oh so sure about a situation in which the true reality is that no one really knows (like the TV Weather Guy/Gal must). They don't get paid to say, "The truth is, we don't know what's going to happen".

I just happen to have The Weather Channel on right now, and they seem to be trending (quite flakily if that's a word) toward the scenario I just described. Noticed they left out any details in regards to related weather events though (how convenient), but they did show a similar placement of a warm front and low pressure system sometime late Sunday into Monday as was just written. There should be a little caption on the screen , "Just for kicks, this might happen by Monday. But not for sure. We'll get back with you on that one".

Variably Nice Through Mid Day Wednesday

This morning's images first show the averaged mid-upper flow as observed this morning, with the second image showing the 700mb forecast (which is in the mid-levels) for this afternoon. Note that the two images look very similar. Invariably the flow just overhead is from the west, and it's quite moist in a shallow layer around 5000 ft. The first image also shows this moisture content occurring in 'patches', with a more significant consolidation (by the light blue shades) approaching the Florida Panhandle. The last image was included to depict the developing upper level set up described yesterday with impulses ejecting out of the low off Southern California riding eastward and merging with arctic air near Texas. The overall 'mean' track of the two combined is across N. Florida, Alabama, and Georgia through Thursday.

SYNOPSIS: A weak mid-level impulse is currently passing over N. Florida, Georgia, and probably about to already exit Alabama. Some very light rain patches have been noted over N. Florida this morning per radar returns, but much of this is not reaching the ground. Not shown is a very leak low pressure system off the Florida East Coast (east of Ormond Beach) and randomly located high pressure bubbles embedded within the westerly flow just overhead. Meanwhile at the surface over Florida the pattern is much the same (especially from near SR520 and points north), but a generalized weak westerly surface flow will develop today in the wake of the short-wave trough passing to the north of Central Florida. Another way of looking at is, is that the North Half of Florida is setting up for a variety of weather conditions during the next 48-60hrs while South Florida remains south of the trouble makers (for the most part).

TODAY: So what does this all mean for today? We've lost the northerly wind of yesterday, and as expected a weak west wind should be the prevalent mode today. The models are all showing more sun than clouds this afternoon, but I'm not willing to fully bite on that notion. It's safe to say that the majority of the day will be partly cloudy with the majority of atmospheric moisture still in place between a 2800- 5000 ft layer still in place like yesterday and as mentioned above (the level at which the clouds will be today). The high temperature today will consist of widespread mid-70s with upper 70s further south. The 70F degree isotherm will run roughly along the Beach Line toward Tampa, with areas further north of this line in the mid-upper 60s, with the 70s south of that line.

The coolest spot in East Central Florida today will be right along A1A from the 520 Causeway north through Cape Canaveral and up toward Daytona Beach Shores and Ormond Beach. But locally, the Port Canaveral area toward the pads may just eke out a low 70F degree reading -- in short, it'll be close. I mention this only in recognition that it would be nice to make that what has personally become 'the magic number for these parts' .

It's all contingent on the presence (or lack there of) of the pesky on again/ off again stratocumulus deck at the critical peak heating hour of 12-30pm to 2:30pm. These clouds form at the level described above where the most moisture is present aloft. Expect we will see a good cloud break during the late morning, but as is often the case with ample low level moisture in place during this particular synoptic set up during the winter, the heating provided during the 'cloud break' aids only in forming more clouds after an hour or two. But it is safe to saw that the beach side will easily see very close to 70F...ah, who cares really? Who knows, if clouds do not reform as feared, low 70s could be easily realized.

Elsewhere though, despite some clouds, those areas west of the rivers will all be in the mid-70s with upper 70s possible as well in a few spots, most likely over all of South Florida and in patches over the Central portions.

WEDNESDAY: With passage of the short wave to our north today and tonight we could see a northwest wind developing on Wednesday for a time which could also harbor in some ever so slightly drier mid-level air during the afternoon for a brief time. With that notion, despite the more northerly wind tomorrow, the better chance of sunshine will result in temperatures similar to today.

LATE WEDNESDAY: Pretty big overrunning (isentropic lifting type), rain event is just beginning to evolve along the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and will most assuredly become evident during the day Wednesday as a solid rain shield evolves from Southern Mississippi-Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as energy from the low off the California Coast ejects eastward toward that area. Additionally, a surface area of low pressure could form in the North Central Gulf which will ride along the developing boundary and eventually across North Central or North Florida during the day Thursday. The sky conditions by late Wednesday afternoon will gradually deteriorate from Melbourne to Tampa and all points north with lowering cloud ceilings and the chance of rain fall increasing as the fully evolved rain shield sinks south toward SR 528 around midnight. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s as winds back to the WSW and increase to the 10-15mph range into Wednesday night. I'm seeing a chance of thunder on The Weather Channel this morning. Believe the chance will be limited to folks further north.

THURSDAY: Do believe that anyone from Satellite Beach toward Tampa Bay will be waking to light or even periods of moderate rain fall Thursday morning and even more likely at lunch time in advance of the boundary sinking south and evolving into a cold front. Or at a minimum, an overcast sky. The rains could actually start as soon as 11pm -1am time frame overnight (Wednesday into Thursday).

Very cloudy all day Thursday with temperatures hold steady in the 60s, but this is iffy. If the rain falls for a long duration of time, wouldn't be surprised to see high end 50s in a few spots due simply to cooler air aloft being dragged down to the surface (rain cooled air). Thursday looks like a pretty crummy day. How long the chance of rain will last over Central Florida is still questionable in my mind to some degree, but do believe it will be over by mid-late afternoon as the now evolved cold front sinks south only slowly at first without a good push aloft from the northwest as is typically experienced when a big cold air event strikes. Thus, there won't be a sudden change in weather conditions as the fronts continues south.

Behind the boundary temperatures will fall though and stay 'fallen' through Saturday. "Help, I've fallen and I can't Get Up!". The biggest weather story will occur when the low pressure system and energy helping to generate our rains phases with energy out of Canada NNE of Florida near the eastern mid-Atlantic and NE States over the weekend where a widespread snow event will evolve, perpetuated by a combination of Pacific and Gulf Moisture with colder Arctic Air as those two storm tracks merge.

FRIDAY: Someone get her "life alert"! Very cool Friday and Saturday with much improved sky conditions. Interestingly, the last 2 runs of the NAM have shown a little 'cold pocket' near West Central Brevard county (of upper 30s). Don't know what that's all about; just an observation of that model is all. But low 40s for Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s seem to be the status quo at this point (morning model runs have not come out yet, so this could change and will be mentioned in tomorrow's post). The coldest day looks to be Saturday.

And of course, warmer to maybe even much warmer from West Palm Beach to south of Sarasota on the West Coast where they are further away from the zonal, westerly flow and cooler air aloft. This same area will see a significantly less chance of rainfall as well. In essence, South Florida will remain out of the storm track altogether, not to say it won't rain down that way some where though, just not as high of a chance of accumulations with less coverage.

SUNDAY: A warming trend will develop by afternoon as yet another storm impulse approaches from the West (Texas) along the zonal flow aloft over the Southeast states and winds begin to veer completely around to an easterly and eventually southerly component to start next week.

Believe the weather headlines as noted above by late week and into the weekend will concern folks around the east and south side of the Great Lakes due to Lake Effect snows and around the mid-Atlantic States toward the extreme Northeast States. All this will occur as Florida will have long dried out and will be entering the end phase of this brief very cool spell.

In fact, while they are ending or still experiencing their event up that way we'll already be setting up for the next 'close to impossible at this point to forecast' weather event of sorts. Timing and intensity of which at this point is up for grabs. But again, as has been mentioned in several previous posts, even the long range Magic Eight Ball outlooks do not show a very cold spell of freezing temperature potential for Central or South Florida. Would be nice to read "You Will Encounter a Sunny, Warm Stranger" after giving it a good shake, but that is yet to be seen. In essence, a period of below normal temperatures is at hand from Thursday Afternoon through Sunday morning.

See Saw Weather Pattern For Central Florida This Week

Image: Forecast for 7pm tonight shows location of the 925mb height (around 2000 ft overhead) high pressure center this evening which is dictating our weather locally today.

TODAY: Let it be known first and foremost, this is a low confidence forecast beyond 24 hours. In the interim (does that leave us much time?), cloudiness associated with the frontal boundary advertised to pass through Central Florida around midnight performed as hoped and is currently washing out over extreme South Florida. Even with a north wind down that way, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s, as if to emphasize how little umpf the front had. Closer to Central Florida it gets a little tricky with much drier air just to the north by 50 miles or less but making little further headway to the south tward the Beach line. The cloud shield threw many forecasters for a loop this morning concerning how far south the clearing line would get, but it was all for naught since it has mostly burned off in place to our south. Otherwise, northerly winds today will gradually weaken to light onshore during the day with little in the clouds department, at least for now. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with plentiful mid and upper 70s over South Florida. The coolest location down there today might actually be the Keys.

TONIGHT: High pressure at the low and mid levels to persist from the West Central Gulf and across South Florida to the Bahamas with circulation around the top of this high to work to the surface and the result being a westerly surface wind tomorrow ahead of a quickly moving short wave trough shown in the image above as the dashed line. Overnight lows along the coast in the mid 50s and cooler inland.

TUESDAY: Temperatures to rebound across much of the state tomorrow with mid-upper 70s abundant, even near the coast with a west wind. The coolest spot will be along the immediate West Coast and out on the eastern most barrier islands that has two bodies of very cool water to contend with before the west wind reaches there. But it does look like the sun will be generous tomorrow, so it will be a nice day regardless.

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: Will leave this in general terms at this point. The high pressure area over the Gulf and South Florida will gradually sink further south as a series of short waves being fed by both a developing upper low of the S. California Coast as well as low pressure near James Bay traverse both the Great Lakes region as well as the Central Plains. These systems will systematically feed into a stationary upper low just now getting its act together from James Bay to Maine. Adversely for Florida, this will be gradually lowering standard height levels aloft and correspondingly surface temperatures beginning Thursday through the weekend. Before Thursday we'll mainly see warmest overnight lows right at the coast, with the warmer temperatures found inland during the day, but no big changes worth noting.

Timing of these impulses and their direct (or even indirect) impacts on Central and North Florida has been sketchy at best. As such, determination of when it will or won't get cloudy and possibly even rain beyond Wednesday is in doubt in my mind. The only thing that seems to be consistent at this point is that it will be getting much cooler sometime Thursday and most assuredly be very cool to cold on Saturday; however, no big freezes are on the horizon. It will more of a consistently very cool period of a few days in store during late week and into the weekend is about all that seems fairly certain at this point.

Suffice it to say, the folks around the Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic region, and the Northeast states have it much worse, as they will have the 'will it snow and if so how much' s, and probably being hearing forecasts bounced around every 12 hours. One of the biggest sticklers when push comes to shove will be the upper low off the SW California coast concerning the timing as to when it will begin to open and moves east across the U.S. The models are usually too fast in kicking them through, so expect continued uncertainty in future forecast posts.

But for Florida, just to depict how crazy it gets in the GFS run, it's showing rain every 3 days toward the middle of the month with temperatures remaining just at or a bit below normal. At one point yesterday it was showing a chance of sleet on the 9th across Central Florida (just for example). In conclusion, don't believe much (if any) of what you hear on the news beyond 3 days, and in some cases beyond 18 hours. Especially in regards to cloud cover. The bigger news now is getting to be the ever worsening and expanding drought over the state. We'll take the rain one way or the other.

Warmer Temperatures For All Today (In Much of Florida)

Images Depict: A weak mid-level short wave, namely a manifestation of the upper level support for the cold front over the panhandle outrunning the surface features showing as a wind shift, cloud band (with very light rain in spots), and very warm dew points over the central Gulf Of Mexico (3rd image). Note in the first image that the averaged mid-level winds behind the front are westerly and not from the north, indicating no big cold air invasion from the Arctic but rather one of Pacific origin.

SYNOPSIS: A weak band of spotty light rains and enhanced cloudiness raced from NNW-SSE down North and Central Florida around sunrise this morning and is currently dissipating just south or along Route 60 or from near Vero to Sarasota; meanwhile, the surface feature delineating the true surface cold front remains over the Panhandle at noon time.

Interestingly, the temperature at PAFB bottomed out just as the feature approached and winds went from SSE to calm and the temperature fell for a brief time to 60F. As soon as the boundary approached the wind picked up and the temperature went back up to 68F by 9AM. Ahead of the boundary the winds over SE Florida are from the SE, but behind the boundary they are from the SSW-SW as reported last hour (11AM) over North Brevard and points to the west and north. Cape Canaveral is near calm right now, so that wind direction will hopefully be here shortly. The boundary passing over appears has enough umpf to it to have helped erode the western edge of the high pressure area located to our east and out in the Atlantic that has been palguing the East Central Florida Coast the past few days. And as such, with this minor dissipation the surface wind will veer ever so slightly as to help the folks from Vero north to loose the onshore wind this afternoon, and allow one of the coolest afternoon locations of recent days (namely, the Barrier Islands) to warm up to those levels that everyone else has been experiencing the past day or two this afternoon before clouds advect in and/or down right form over the region.

We see in the 3rd image very warm dew point air (of high moisture content) in the West Central Gulf preceding the cool front which will move across Central and South Florida in sporadic fashion during the mid-late afternoon and through the evening. The presence of greater moisture in the atmosphere and cloud breaks allowing the sun to shine through and heat the earth's surface should aid in cloud development early this afternoon off setting what otherwise could be temperatures reaching widespread 80F readings, but do believe they will be found most likely over East Central Florida (at least, that's my line of thinking right now). In the meantime, widespread mid-upper 70s will prevail south of the cold front today during peak heating, which essentially is all of peninsular Florida. But clouds will be an ever increasing reality during the course of the afternoon hours, and with the low sun angle at this time of year, believe whatever temperature is reached by 2pm -3pm is where it will level off but hold steady with only a slow fall near dark preceding the front with cloud cover and winds preventing any radiational cooling to occur.

MIDNIGHT-MONDAY: Looks like the front will pass cross Central Florida between 11PM - 2AM, accompanied by a solid cloud cover with the best chance of rain on the West side of the Central Peninsula near Tampa. Winds will veer more toward the west just ahead and along the front before midnight then quickly gain a due northwest - north component with its passage, and eventually more of NNE direction by mid-morning Monday as the front clears the Florida Straits at that time. The models are clearing the clouds out nicely for tomorrow, but I'm not so sure. The saving grace may be that surface and mid-level winds will remain light which would prevent significant mixing at the mid-levels, thus preventing cloud formation. But there will still be plenty of moisture to work with for this time of year -- as such, I'm sticking with at least a partly cloudy sky tomorrow with a cooler daytime high (mid-upper 60s) either way. Again, the coolest spot will be along A1A from near JAX to the south end of the Barrier Islands with the light onshore component wind advecting even cooler shelf waters to the coast from what has occurred in this location during a SE wind event --considering the greater distance the air will be trajected across cold shelf waters from the warm Gulf Stream waters at this direction as opposed to when the wind is from the SE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Very docile temperature regime for A1A with the warmest overnight lows and coolest afternoon high temperatures under variable sky conditions with a nondescript wind in the strength department as high pressure in the mid-levels remains anchored over the South Central Gulf and across South Florida generating a W-WNW north wind just over head and a light sea breeze at the surface during the day. In essence, temperatures will be around or just below normal during the day, and above normal at night. Of course, away from the coast it will be both cooler by night and warmer by day, closer to 'normal', 'average', whatever.

Another mid-level impulse may brush over North and Central Florida which will go mainly un-noticed by most Tuesday/Wednesday with little impact other than to disrupt the generalized pattern described above, but otherwise of little consequence. But it will be a harbinger of things to come.

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The main focus on this period is increasingly cooler temperatures state wide. During the first half of the week a zonal flow pattern aloft over the eastern 3/4 of the country will be the rule; however, an ever deepening trough of low pressure will be fed almost continuously in the broad brush by short wave ripples migrating from Central and Southern California which will quickly skirt across the country's mid-section. As such, each consecutive shot off dynamics will aid in sinking the standard height levels from 850mb-300mb east of the Mississippi, meaning colder air aloft will sinking toward the surface with the surface temperature to respond accordingly.

No big chances of rain are noted, but clouds will remain an on again/off again issue throughout the week. This is both good and bad. It won't be totally cloudy for any one period too long, but then again it won't be totally sunny too long for any one period either. But expect some of both, often several times in any one given day.

NEXT WEEKEND: As it stands now, in following the trend that has been implied by the GFS and ECMWF models and as just described above, next weekend will be about 10-15F degrees cooler than this one has been, with morning lows falling into the low-mid 40s and highs in the mid-upper 50s north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line. But that's still a week away and obviously the temperature regime will require great scrutiny as the time approaches. No big freezes are shown to occur, but it could get generally much cooler to the point of it 'not being fun anymore' in the shorts and flip-flops department. Then again, as I've observed over many years, we're entering the coldest time of year. Meaning, the time of year when it is most likely to be uncomfortably cool/cold for an extended amount of time rather than in piece meal shots or blasts of air. Then again, has that yet to occur this winter season? Barely. This little 'warm period' we are having now might be the last prolonged one until around the end of the 3rd week of January, but who knows.

'Tis the Winter Season.

Side Note: Still watching the extreme SW Gulf for any big weather makers, given the time of year. Weather makers, that is, in the severe weather department. We will be entering Tornado Valley Season in the next couple of weeks as well.

December 2010 Temperatures "Go Down" in History - But See Florida Tomorrow

Images show: ... the general forecast high temperature leading into Sunday at 1pm per the North American Model (NAM), the current surface temperature depiction at 9:45AM this New Year's Day morning, and the dailyrainfall totals at my location in Cape Canaveral, FL for last month showing a very dry total of only 0.54". The drought conditions continue since summer time.

TODAY: This will be a short forecast post today, given that there is nothing in significant changes or near term 'events' on the horizon for the next 5 days outside of the usual "fly doing the backstroke in the ointment" which will be an ongoing problem for several days to come as I'll briefly allude to below. Otherwise, more clouds for East Central Florida this morning as one views out the window can attest to. It's not cloudy everywhere though by any means. The sole bearers of the cloud cover at this time are main those from near Ft. Pierce to Port Canaveral, with a fresh influx of stratocumulus of more cottony looking nature on satellite imagery moving in on SE Florida rather than those of the more stratified/flattened look further north and over Brevard at this time of writing. If you can recall, I mentioned that stratocumulus clouds would likely become an issue in future posts about 5 days ago...and such it is been, "Oy Vey" (an exclamation of dismay or exasperation meaning "oh woe").

The low last night was similar to that of the night before at Patrick AFB, with cooler temperatures inland away from the east coast, courtesy of the clouds clearing out right before dark and the winds decoupling from the boundary layer inland. The high at PAFB yesterday as reported on the standard 'hour' was 70.9F as expected would be. Inland areas and further south fared better (warmer that is), and I'd bet that up by Port Canaveral it is was a little cooler than that felt at PAFB. As was the case yesterday, the high temperature today will be fully contingent upon clouds along the coast and when (or if) they clear. Away from the coast it will be a warmer day though, with many areas barely having any clouds at all with none on the approach from the west until well past peak heating and after dark, other than scattered stratocumulus formations with daytime heating with moisture trapped at the ever present inversion still showing up on the KSC sounding data at 5000 ft.

My inclination is to hypothesize that there will be more clouds than sun today along the coast for East Central Florida which will again temper down the forecast high temperature being made public on The Weather Channel for the A1A corridor, as has been the case for days! Otherwise, mainly a SSE wind becoming more southerly today and paralleling the coast by mid-late afternoon around the backside circulation of high pressure now located just to the east of North Carolina which will move further east as the storm system that generated the tornadoes and related severe weather over Arkansas/Missouri region yesterday progresses into that region. The same storm system has resulted in the issuance of Tornado Watches for the western Florida Panhandle and Southern Alabama late this morning.

Winds will become more SSW after dark and perhaps allow coastal temperatures to cool a few degrees compared to the past two mornings since they will not be off the water overnight for the most part, but no big deal (only by a degree or two). Tomorrow we'll be experiencing a mostly SSW-SW wind and partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies well ahead of the front which will be across the panhandle and extending SSW well into the southern Gulf, already in the process of 'hanging up' temporarily. Clouds will be at all atmospheric levels from stratocumulus to cirrostratus to fulfill the 'sky mural'. A Land breeze tomorrow should permit the area that has had the coolest afternoon high temperatures (NE Brevard) to finally catch up with everyone else despite the clouds as all things become equal.

the cold front will cross Central Florida early Monday morning in a much more elongated west to east fashion as it sinks south and becomes dynamically stretched to the limit, with all of the energy generating the dynamic weather of yesterday and forecast for today well to our northwest passing north of Central Florida by hundreds of miles. Temperatures on Monday will hang in the 60s all day from sunrise to set behind the front. Any precipitation related to the boundary (little to none is anticipated at this time), will occur behind the boundary a prove to be a continuing minor forecasting saga through Wednesday.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: Do believe the clouds will again become a problem behind the front, as the wind direction quickly swings back to the NE-E behind the front as yet another high pressure center approaches the mid-Atlantic region replacing the one that was just there. As such, over night low temperatures will remain above average with afternoon highs a bit below or just at average through Wednesday at which point another boundary will be approaching and linger close to Central Florida as it looks now. This front may or may not be of relative temperature significance as far as cooling is concerned heading toward the 6th or 7th, but we'll leave further discussion of this potential out for now (other than what I just wrote) due to inconsistencies between the models and the ramifications portrayed. But for short, the GFS has been depicting the cool down around the 6th or 7th for a few runs now, which implies that the negative phase of the North American Oscillation could be in for round two in the fun-n-games department for Florida. (insert frown emoticon HERE).

THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DECEMBER 2010 CLIMATIC SUMMARY IN REVIEW. ALL INFORMATION COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THIS AREA LOCATED IN MELBOURNE FLORIDA.

DECEMBER 2010 WAS THE COLDEST ON RECORD.

...EXTREME COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LED TO THE COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD 
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...  
..RAINFALL WAS ALSO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR DECEMBER 2010 
 
A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS THAT BROUGHT NUMEROUS NIGHTS OF 
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS MONTH LEAD TO THE COLDEST 
DECEMBER ON RECORD. LITTLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED THESE BOUNDARIES 
WHICH ALSO LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.  
  
TEMPERATURES 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE 
NOVEMBER WERE ENDED BY THE 1ST OF THE MONTH AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES 
OF STRONG FRONTS CROSSED THE AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS CROSSED 
THE AREA ON THE 5TH...12TH...18/19TH...AND 25/26TH WHICH REINFORCED 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MONTH. THREE SEPARATE 
FREEZE EVENTS WERE EXPERIENCED THIS DECEMBER DUE TO THE VERY 
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES. THESE EVENTS TOOK 
PLACE ON THE MORNINGS OF THE 7-8TH...14-16TH...AND 27-29TH. ONE OF 
THE EARLIEST HARD FREEZES (MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES) TO 
OCCUR ON RECORD FOR DECEMBER WAS OBSERVED DURING THE 14TH AND 15TH 
WITH HARD FREEZES OBSERVED AGAIN ON THE 28TH AND 29TH. 
 
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES REMAINED BELOW NORMAL ALMOST 
EVERY SINGLE DAY WITH DEPARTURES AS HIGH 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL OCCURRING ON SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS RECORD LOWS 
AND COOL HIGHS WERE BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE MONTH. IN THE END MONTHLY 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE 9 
TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUES NOT 
ONLY SET THIS DECEMBER AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD...BUT SHATTERED THE 
PREVIOUS COLDEST DECEMBER RECORDS BY A WHOLE 2 TO 4 DEGREES. RECORDS 
FOR THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA GO AS FAR BACK AS THE 
EARLY 20S...HOWEVER EVEN COOP SITES THAT HAVE DATA EXTENDING BACK 
INTO THE EARLY 1900S SUCH AS TITUSVILLE...FORT PIERCE AND DELAND 
EXPERIENCED THEIR COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD BY A LARGE MARGIN. 
 
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR THESE WELL BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES DURING DECEMBER WAS A PERSISTENT AND STRONG NEGATIVE 
PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TYPICALLY BRINGS MORE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS 
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. 

Happy Warm End to 2010 and New 2011

Images: First image shows warmest air just off the east coast, the warmest very close to the coast from near Vero to Miami, with the 60F isotherm running from near Daytona Beach SSW toward Naples this morning at sunrise with 60F degrees east and south of that line. The other image shows a forecast for this afternoon with widespread 70s.

OVERNIGHT: The low temperature last night at Patrick AFB occurred around 10pm at 62F (the high there yesterday was 66.6F at 3pm). This falls in line with my previous line of thinking for the days to come. It is interesting that last night it got down to about 62F there (and on my porch) with a light east wind. After midnight the wind switched to the SE and the temperature went up two degrees and held steady the remainder of the night under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, inland temperatures dipped into the low 50s with 40s across much of North Florida away from either coast.

TODAY: Pretty much the same saga continues today. The weak inverted trough along the Gulf Stream is washing out and now only remains from roughly Cape Canaveral and off to the NNE-NE and into the Atlantic, along which some rain showers and denser cloud cover are occurring well offshore. Otherwise, the atmosphere has changed little in the mid-levels with a strong inversion persistent at around 5000ft , above which the wind is from the WSW-W, but below is from the SE which is ushering in the warmer, more moist air at the surface.

As previously mentioned, the only clincher in the forecast is high temperatures directly related to cloud cover and the cool Atlantic waters for those close to the shore line. Last satellite animation shows some patches of mid-level clouds heading this way in scattered mode, with the stratocumulus hugging the east central coast right where the last of the inverted trough exists there. With us already off to a good start in the temperatures department, believe that diurnal heating will be enough to break 70F today (it is already from West Palm and south at 9AM), with a high today right along the coast leveling off in the 72F range and holding steady due to the influence of the close proximity of the colder Atlantic, but from Sebastian Inlet or Vero Beach south mid-70s (along A1A) will become a more likely reality. All inland areas away from the ocean's cooling effect will also see widespread mid-70s approaching low end upper 70s. Believe the stratocumulus will make their most assured break (assuming they do) by noon through 4pm just before, during, and just after the time the sun is at its peak, but we may once again see them develop by later in the afternoon. At a minimum, it will be partly cloudy this afternoon. Wind will be SE at 7-12mph today.

TONIGHT: Looks like the stage is set for a very stagnant temperature regime under a continuing SE flow which will aid in leveling off the playing field in that department. Overnight lows along the coast in the low to mid 60s from near Daytona and everywhere south east of US1, and more likely along A1A with mid 50s inland. Afternoon highs near Port Canaveral in the low 70s toward Sebastian but warmer everywhere else. Clouds remain an iffy issue, especially along the coast, but do believe we'll be seeing more sun than clouds Saturday.

NEW YEARS DAY: Lows in the low 60s again along A1A and cooler inland with some clouds off and on. Nothing new and a nice way to bring in the New Year.

SUNDAY: Just wanted to highlight this day as it could be the warmest one in a while with more mid-upper 70s everywhere including the immediate coastline. A dynamically challenged 'cold front' looks to cross Central Florida early Monday, but in advance of the boundary high pressure to the east of the state will sink a tad south well in advance with the result being a SSW-SW wind all day Sunday which will permit afternoon high temperatures to be most notably warmer along the A1A corridor from that of today and tomorrow. Do believe we will see some high and mid-level clouds simultaneously but despite the clouds the temperatures will be warmer, unless of course there is an overcast sky most of the day. This will be re-evaluated as that time approaches. But for now, the potential stands for a warm Sunday everywhere.

MONDAY-JANUARY 6th: The only affect the passing front will induce is for a few cooler morning low temperatures (upper 50s as opposed to low 60s along the coast, cooler inland), with afternoon highs right around the 70F degree mark. A brief period of NW winds will follow the front, that will quickly veer toward the NE-E as high pressure again follows the same path as the southern extent of the average storm track, namely off the North Carolina coast. As written yesterday, it still looks like the next week's average storm track will be from Central to Southern California toward the ENE and off the NE U.S. coast. Southern California could be in for two more bouts of rain during this period, but of short duration compared to what has been experienced. Also expect to hear a lot over the press about ice becoming an issue near the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi River Valley areas as the battle between the relatively warm air mass over the SE U.S. continues waging with the much cooler air mass of Pacific Origin across that playing field.

Awaited Florida Warm Up

Images: Very weak inverted trough off/along the SE Florida Coast, strong subsidence inversion, and cloud cover make for only a minor high temperature forecast problem today. Note the warm, 'orangy' colors along the Gulf Stream, making up the inverted trough. The blue clouds shown are high clouds moving from west to east.

SYNOPSIS: As noted yesterday, surface high pressure that was over the state yesterday would slide eastward and into the Western Atlantic, with a more prevalent center located over the Eastern Carolinas. But, a portion of the ridge axis would remain over Central Florida which did occur and certainly seems to be the case as of late this morning as well. Surface winds along the axis remain from the N or NW while further south...from West Palm to Miami the prevalent ESE-SE flow has become established south of the axis and where warmer temperatures are found (low 70F degree readings already). Meanwhile, along and north of the axis the temperature is in the upper 50s and low 60s. Additionally, a weak inverted trough axis along and near the Gulf Stream (more of a thermal trough of warmer air) can be found in the image above as indicated by the orange coloring. To complicate things a bit more, a weak short wave trough which troubled the SE Texas coastal areas yesterday has moved east through Louisiana and the Northern Gulf and is now crossing the western Florida panhandle which is adding some mid-level moisture above the inversion level. We can see that the high clouds in the satellite image indicated by the blue colors in the satellite picture are in the process of clearing from West to East late this morning; however, low end mid-level cloudiness has developed as the warm air advection from the southeast over-rides colder air at the surface and along a stout inversion located between 3500-5000ft (where the most extensive clouds are now). The moisture level here is being enforced as the short wave passes to our north, but that should be well to the north and east of Central Florida by day's end, which would help to shut down the cloud producing machine. Additionally, expect those warmer temperatures just to the south and SSE to gradually advect north ward during the course of the day and all night tonight toward Daytona and eventually Jax Beach.

TODAY: The only 'challenge' if we can call it that, concerns how warm the temperature will get this afternoon over portions of Central Florida. The two factors at play involve not only the timing on when (or if) the clouds will clear but also the affect the cold Atlantic Shelf Waters will have in conjunction with an eventual easterly component wind shift. Also to consider is the low sun angle at this time of year which will be detrimental in burning off the lower clouds. No doubt, it looks like the high clouds are on the way out and will be gone in time before the sun reaches its peak angle today, but will it be soon enough to reach 70 degrees over most of Central Florida? Don't think so. In yesterday's post I thought the high temperature today would be in the mid-upper 60s and that is my line of thinking for today, despite the 70s I'm seeing on The Weather Channel, at least for my location. SE Florida is already in the low 70s, so their concern will be how high into the 70s it will be. This is all of minor concern really, considering the cold temperatures of days now past.

In essence, expecting partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies today with the sun peaking out off and on throughout the day, but not enough to break the 70F degree isotherm north of Melbourne Beach...but it will be close. Actually, the Weather Channel just showed Melbourne at 69F while Merritt Island is 59F. My porch was reading 57F 10 minutes ago! So there you go.

Concerning the wind, believe the ridge axis over the Central Peninsula will break down at the surface enough to eventually allow an easterly trajectory wind to establish underneath the inversion of very light strength (5-8mph) by later today which will be important in regards to the overnight low temperature tonight along the coast.

TONIGHT: ESE-SE wind to develop up and down the Florida East Coast keeping overnight low temperatures in the upper 50s east of US1. Continued influx of warm air advection from the Caribbean will aid to break down the inversion to the degree that the mid-level clouds will thin out from botton up appreciably after dark, hopefully "appreciably" even before that time. Yes, it would be much appreciated, thank you very much.

FRIDAY-NEW YEAR'S DAY: As written two days ago, the only challenge in days ahead will be stratocumulus clouds which will act to inhibit higher temperatures than would be otherwise recognized. But that is of minor relevance, considering that overnight low temperatures might not even get below 60F east of US1 New Years Eve into the New Day with afternoon high temperatures along the Barrier Islands in the low 70s there due to light onshore winds blowing across the now very much cooled Atlantic near shore waters, but in the mid-low end upper 70s west of US1 and south of Vero Beach or Ft Pierce where the Gulf Stream is closer to the coast. No rain for at least the next 10 days as it stands now, with periods of clouds being the only 'issue'.

FIRST WEEK OF 2011: Also as written yesterday, high pressure at the mid-levels located over the extreme SE states and at times only over Florida will hold fast as the storm track basically lies from Central to Southern California and runs toward the ENE-NE toward the Great Lakes region and sometimes sinks into the NE and even mid-Atlantic states. By early in the first week of January Florida will be the sole recipient of 70 degree readings, living up to what it is known to do best. Being the warmest spot in the country during the winter!

Jack Frost Makes A Chillin' Pass Over Florida

Jack Frost might be " Chillin' and Killin'" but he seemed more 'meek and mild' along the coast. I guess the agriculturally inclined would be quick to differ though. Photos from my parking lot this Wednesday morning in Cape Canaveral.

TODAY: "Old Man Winter" has left, but he forgot his little 'bad seed' son, Jack Frost. With the first beams of "Little Miss Sunshine" though, Jack was long gone and the seemingly long awaited warm up we've been pining for began. It's going to be somewhat of a slow start from a Cape Canaveral line to Tampa Bay and points north, but south of this line the warm up has begun in much more detectable-to-the-skin fashion. But no matter how we consider it, this is far cry from the past three days. Was it only THAT long?!! Seemed like en entire Arctic Ice Age's worth of cold air.

STATS and SYNOPSIS: Another morning, that's two in a row, where all the major reporting hubs (climate sites) for East Central Florida reported record low temperatures, with Orlando totally blowing their previous low for the date of 34F of the charts by a full 10 degrees at 24F at the International Airport. If there's two places I'd never want to live in Central Florida it would have to be either Scottsmoor or Plymouth (Orange County) where this morning's low was 19F and 15F(!!!) respectively. Seems every where has its pluses and minuses, as these same locales get some good summer thunderstorms as well in the summer. Otherwise and as anticipated, frost was widespread this morning.

High pressure centered over the peninsula all evening will remain much the same all day and only slowly begin to reposition to just offshore after dark with a remnant low level axis extending across the same region as where I delineate the 60F degree isotherm to be situated this afternoon in the next paragraph (from Cape Canaveral to Tampa) . As such, winds to remain light and variable, dictated mainly by proximity to bodies of water (the Atlantic is just about at 60F right now by the way too) vs. where favorable pockets of land can heat up dictated by the vegetation, or lack thereof, that exists in an given large area uniformly. This high pressure circulation will eventually make a break from the land proper over night but for the most part the wind will remain light and northerly variable with temperature ranges as described below.

Did you see the smoke yesterday from the burns in South Brevard County?! From what I understand, it was about 13,000 acres worth of intentional burning, but it sure is causing some problems for anyone located downwind of the burn from South Brevard to maybe even as far southeast and downwind as West Palm Beach. Much of the smoke is trapped below the inversion level with particulates being encapsulated by the moistening air mass below it. Visibilities were greatly reduced in some locales for motorists creating hazardous driving conditions, but a mighty neat looking sunset for some last night. We observed from only Melbourne yesterday and it was obviously some serious burning was going on, although we did not know at the time if it was controlled or out of control.

FORECAST: To cut to the forecast chase, the big headline is "Warmer Everywhere!" for the state of Florida. Looks like the 60F degree isotherm for a maximum temperature today is going to be tickling the heart strings for those located somewhere around Cape Canaveral to Titusville this afternoon westward toward North Tampa Bay with widespread mid-50s further north, and mid to even some upper 60s further south. But the majority of the Central Strip along the Beach Line (SR 528) will be around 60F degrees this afternoon. The warmest spot will be from near West Palm to Miami along the east coast where 70F will be only a fraction away of not reached.

TONIGHT - THE WEEKEND: Progressively warmer most assuredly noteworthy overnight tonight as previously forethought, as a very light onshore wind component attempts to establish. Believe that low temperatures right along the coast will be realized around 3-4AM and then level off or maybe even go up a degree or two after that time frame, but the majority of Central Florida will dip down back to the low-mid 40s by sunrise. The coast will stay in the 50s overnight though.

Afternoon high temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-upper 60s everywhere with low 70s over South Florida. Sky conditions will be sunny with occasionally a few thin cirrus cloud streaks adding some character to otherwise blue skies and perhaps stratocumulus clouds teasing the SE Florida Coastline communities.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: Things (temperatures) really level off along A1A, where there will be very little difference between overnight lows and afternoon highs with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the low-mid 70s. The difference becomes even less by Saturday or Sunday where very close to 70F will be within reach round the clock. At this time, the onshore component, southeast wind that will take shape on Friday does not appear will have much impact as far as the afternoon high temperature is concerned as it blows across the Atlantic due to how weak it will be...but do believe the first couple of blocks close to the water's edge will feel the 'chill' by a couple of degrees lower on the thermometer. But again, it appears these 'chilly' temperatures (which will feel more like someone turned up the air conditioner more than anything else) will be of zero consequence. The same folks near the ocean will make up for it overnight with warmer overnight temperatures as opposed to those further from the shoreline and inland.

NEXT COLD FRONT?: Technically, one cold argue we'll have a 'front' pass through Central Florida early next week, but the reality is that the front which will have been located over the Panhandle will be absorbed into high pressure both ahead and behind it...and as such any notice of its presence for south and/or only Central Florida will be a shift in what already will be a light wind of 10mph or less to begin with and a period of increased high clouds...and slightly cooler afternoon temperatures. As it stands now, South and Central Florida has swung into the full bore dry season (if we weren't there already) feet first with no precipitation within sight...that is, within sound reasoning and a Crystal Ball Guestimation.

Take a Hike, Old Man Winter!

Old man winter came in with a blast.

Oh, how I wish he...
Were a thing of the past!

Every time I open the door -
Snow, sleet, wind, rush in
They're predicting more!

We crawl under the covers
And hide our heads.
Like Rip Van Winkle, I hibernate and stay in bed.

(Author: Nancy Hobock...words modified by self a bit, but it was her idea)

TODAY: "One more day of cold, me thinks in my head...covers are warm, brain is dead"...as is a lot of the vegetation across North and Central Florida. All one has to do is take a drive west of US1 toward I95 to see the effect the cold has already had on this part of the state, and after the past few days I hate to see what the ramifications of freezing temperatures will be by this time next week and beyond. But the "Old Man" is heading for the retirement home soon as far as Florida is concerned (which now appears is currently located over the Desert SW toward Colorado where the next cold snap and/or big snow is poised).

Locally, warm up has already began to a small (or even a few) degrees of Fahrenheit for Florida, at least as far as the immediate east coast was concerned this morning. As expected, widespread freezing temperatures were found in abundance all areas with record low temperatures reported at Daytona, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach (just to name a few) for the date. But as noted yesterday, the area along the A1A corridor was warmer than on Monday morning minus the direct advection of cold air to those along and east of A1A. There was also frost observed in many spots.

Currently, high pressure centered near Northern Alabama and Mississippi is sinking south and a bit east toward the Florida Panhandle and the mouth of the Mississippi this afternoon under abundantly clear skies. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 50s now...with some upper 50s possible from a line running south of a Melbourne to Sarasota line, but do believe that mid-50s will be the dominant temperature regime this afternoon for all of the immediate Central Florida region. Upper 50s and lower to even mid-60s will be the rule south of this line the closer to the Keys one gets.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: If last night wasn't already a nearly classic night for radiational cooling and cold air drainage flow, then tonight will be. Must admit, the wind early last evening went pretty darned close to near calm shortly after sunset which set the scene for the widespread cold air planted at ground level this morning earlier than I had expected (by 24 hours)...the pattern was established early in the evening and will already be in place (as it is right now while typing) when the sun sets this evening as the high pressure sinks south of the Panhandle toward Central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with likely a secondary mesoscale high pressure bubble centered over Lake Okeechobee by sunrise, Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Believe that freezing level temperatures will be restricted to those west of the Indian River from Fort Pierce north through Brevard County, but widespread frost will again be found over a broader expanse in the morning right at sunrise almost anywhere. It was 33F degrees at my place in Cape Canaveral this morning with similar readings around the Canaveral AFS just to the north and warmer further south toward Patrick AFB, but the freezing mark was not far away just to the west. Freezing temperatures will again be felt in the morning where it matters most, the agricultural belt. Morning lows along A1A will be about 3-5 degrees warmer than what was felt this morning.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: High pressure at the surface will be over head all day, and with a slightly warmer start to the day, especially along the coast, the afternoon will follow suit with highs more assuredly reaching 60F from Cape Canaveral west to Tampa but remain in the upper 50s further north. Low to mid 60s further south. Skies will remain nearly clear or close enough. Might begin to be worth watch some stratocumulus clouds try to advect onshore from near West Palm to Miami by afternoon though, as winds will begin to gain a 'semblance of onshore' component in the afternoon, but believe for the most part that even if they do manageto materialize, given how dry the air will be for starters, they will not pose a problem.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: This is the period when the true "snap" will occur as far as Old Man Winter is concerned. It was nice knowing you old man, but you couldn't leave soon enough! Overnight lows will be remarkably warmer Thursday morning, most notably along the immediate east coast where overnight temperatures will only slowly fall during the duration of the overnight hours as a light onshore component wind forms (they may even level off after 4 or 5AM). Just light enough to keep the first mile or so hugging the coast warmer than inland counterparts, but everyone will be warmer no matter how we look at it. Lows in mid 50s with mid 40s well inland.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND: A southeasterly wind will be the dominant feature as high pressure continues to move further east at the surface, while at the mid levels it remains anchored over the far Southeastern U.S. for a couple of days. Warmer nights and days in store. By New Year's Eve and Day the A1A corridor could be feeling lows in the low 60s with highs in the low 70s. The models are insisting on the immediate east coast from Cape Canaveral south to be the warmest during the overnights for many days to come under the mainly SE wind regime which makes sense, but just how warm the afternoons will be in these same locations remains a bit muddled (in my mind only apparently). Numerical guidance, for example, is promoting mid to upper 70 degree readings for the Melbourne area by next weekend which probably isn't beyond sound reasoning. It's the folks that want to go to the beach during the warm up that might be a tad surprised once they get within a few blocks of the water's edge. Do believe that the coolest official reporting spot by late in the week into next weekend for East Central and East South Florida will end up being Patrick Air Force Base, since they are the closest one to the ocean (not counting the mesonet stations near Canaveral Air Force station just to the north of the Port). I'm willing to give a little leeway though, so opposed to the 67-69F degree high temperatures for the area from Satellite Beach to inhabited Port Canaveral let's give it a 72F for "Coconuts on the Beach" for starters and see what materializes.

I haven't gone into much concerning sky conditions on this post as temperatures have been the focus the past several days. Surely, by Friday clouds in some form or another will become a point of interest as temperatures will be a non-issue and the atmosphere begins to moisten back up. We'll leave that for a later point in time as this period draws nigh.

More focused on getting the winter clothing back on the hangers and in the closet where it belongs. Now where did I put the shorts?!!! Ah yes, they await on the chair in the bedroom, waiting to be used again. Come this time tomorrow, it's shorts ALL THE WAY, BABY!

Two More Cold Days in Store, Then the Coin Flips

Images: A comparison of 'actual' low temperature ranges at 8am with the forecast GFS temperatures for this morning shows the forecast and actuals are closely matched. Lastly, we see the temperature forecast by Friday morning. That's about a 30 degree warm up, or twice as warm than this morning by the end of the week on the numbers scale.

TODAY: High pressure is building south from the middle of the country as the low pressure bomb responsible for all the snow and cold over the eastern U.S. continues NNE (which will provide cold weather havoc for Maine today as the rest of eastern seaboard clears out in the wake of Sunday's blizzard conditions). Subsidence ahead of the high pressure and departure of the remaining upper level vorticity that spun overhead North and Central Florida yesterday accompanied by drier air throughout the atmosphere will yield to a clear sky today and gradual appeasement of the wind machine.

Winds have died down significantly since yesterday, but will remain elevated around 12-25mph this afternoon as the sun's full strength (and subsequent heating) mixes the colder air aloft to the surface, especially on the east side of the rivers (namely over the intracoastal and the barrier islands). Believe the high temperature forecast for today, as mentioned yesterday, is a bit on the warm side and that only upper 40s (but very close to 50F if not right on the mark) will be reached along a Cape Canaveral to Brooksville line, but the apparent temperature will not be as bad with the full sun today and less wind to contend with, especially in wind protected areas that are directly in the sun.

Low 50s are a better bet from near Patrick AFB to Tampa and points south (including the Melbourne area) and mid-upper 50s widespread across South Florida, with 60s in the Keys. Winds should notably decrease late this afternoon after peak heating has relaxed (and mixing) has begun to abate, with the strength waning to the 10mph or slightly less range by sunset or shortly thereafter.

TONIGHT: Another cold night in store as high pressure settles further south toward North Florida and the low departs even further up through Maine and Nova Scotia, simultaneously relaxing the pressure gradient between these two entities even more. Winds will have died down significantly by sunset from what they are this morning, but remain a small factor as far as preventing a classic radiational cooling synoptic set up for Central and South Florida overnight. Winds will veer very late today from WNW to NW and even NNW in some locales over night in the 5-8mph range.

As such, the colder air will penetrate further south, down the spine of the state and take the freezing temperatures further south with them and more toward the west side of the state by daybreak, Tuesday, as opposed to this morning with the WNW wind of this Monday morning.

TUESDAY MORNING: It was relatively warm over by Tampa this morning (around 40F) but do not believe that will be the case Tuesday morning. The coldest temperatures will be found west of US1 to the west coast and south to Punta Gorda and the Big Lake region, while the east coast (East of US1) will be about the same as we were this morning if not a couple degrees warmer.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: High pressure still just to the north will settle even further south with a light NNW wind all day under full sun. Cold air advection will have ceased with a gradual warm up showing its first hints as afternoon temperatures reach the mid-50s everywhere across Central Florida with continued light winds and full sunshine.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will be elongated over all of the Eastern United States with a center along the Appalachians and a secondary displaced core of more 'mesoscale nature' near Central Florida at day break. Believe this will be the most prime of mornings for radiational, drainage flow and cold air trapped underneath, cooling nature as the high pressure inversion affects the state's interior. Remember, that there is a lot of snow covered ground now further north, the air immediately above which is at the freezing point. The cold air will originate under the high pressure inversion and ooze along the earth's cracks and crevices from the snow covered grounds and higher elevations of the Appalachians down the state's spine after midnight given permission by the nearly calm winds. The areas from US1 and points east though should fare much better with upper 30s and low 40s being the rule from Daytona south and even warmer south of Ft. Pierce.

On the other side of the coin, with the first hints of daylight even the coldest of areas will be quick to rebound under full sun with temperatures racing through the 40s and into the 50s by noon time. Low and even mid 60s will be found by peak heating from Titusville to Brooksville south as the high pressure ever so slowly works east during the day and a light ENE wind develops to the west of its clockwise circulation over Florida.

THURSDAY: Over night Wednesday night, the high pressure area will continue off to the east of the state of Florida allowing continued air mass modification to be in full swing. Morning low temperatures along the coast will be comparable to that of the ocean temperatures and be in the mid-upper 50s, colder away from the water. Afternoon temperatures will be just above 70 from the Space Center south to the keys away from the immediate coast, but believe that the models and numerical guidance are overshooting the mark as far as how warm it will actually get east of US1.

Remember, it will have been very cold for several days now, and the ocean will have cooled even more from where it has been. Do not believe guidance is taking this fact into account, and as such with a light onshore wind component for many days to come, anything above 72F will be very hard pressed to make its presence known along the A1A corridor north of Satellite Beach even under full sunshine. Inland zones will fare better by all accounts as afternoon highs warm from low 70s to mid, high end mid 70s in some areas, as we head toward the weekend.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: Pretty much back to 'normal', with lows in the mid-upper 50s (with mid-upper 40s well inland in isolated 'pockets' and highs in the low-mid 70s with the A1A corridor north of Satellite Beach or perhaps Melbourne Beach flirting more with a high between 67-69F as winds will remain subtly from the east. But all in all, we will be looking at morning low temperatures 20-25F degrees warmer than what will occur today by Friday and even more so on Saturday.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM/WEATHER MAKER: There is none foreseen within a reasonably foreseeable future, much to our relief. Granted, the weather will be benign at best, but benign beats freezing! Yes, I can do 'benign' in the winter as opposed to during the summer. "Benign" in winter means cool to very cool mornings, slightly warm afternoons, and clear to partly cloudy skies. "Benign" in the summer usually means humid, warm or hot, partly cloudy skies with no relief of rain or an exciting thunderstorm in sight...accompanied by mosquitoes and cockroaches. Perhaps winter is good for something after-all (once it gets above 65F degrees).