Cool/ Breezy This Afternoon, Very Cool Tonight, Warmer Saturday Afternoon

Image shows current temperatures (roughly) at7AM this morning. Lines drawn in are my guess for  high temperatures this afternoon. The Red Line is the 60F isotherm. Temperatures south of that line will reach the lower 60Fs, mid 60s South Florida, with the ultimate warmest temperatures far SW Florida and Keys.

RECAP: Cold front has obviously cleared the state per clear skies, NW wind, and much cooler air. Temperatures this morning varied to near 30F at Crestview through the 30Fs North Florida with mainly mid-40Fs Central and upper 40Fs to low 50Fs South. Melbourne briefly fell into the low 40Fs earlier but has since rebounded a little bit.  


Otherwise, severe weather occurred yesterday over far SE Florida near Ft Lauderdale/Key Biscayne and surrounding areas in the form of strong wind gusts (one report of 70 mph) and two very brief, weak tornadic spin ups. Doesn't appear these were full bore tornadoes, but the circulation was evidently apparent enough to justify the official reports as "tornado".  Attached are some images from local data integration showing a few parameters 'bulls-eyed' far SE Florida at the time of the events.

 The first image is Storm-relative helicity, second is low level shear and surface winds, with the third showing sea level pressure. Granted, the values aren't exact, but the point here is to show that the event that occurred over far SE Florida was significant enough to show up on the network of information feeding into the system's depiction of these parameters.






TODAY: Nice day for the Delta IV rocket launch at 5:57PM (as of this time). Clear sky with the wind beginning to weaken.  The launch pad is located just to the right of the location of the previous Atlas Launch last week (if viewed from the south).  Expect the weather in Cape Canaveral at launch to exhibit a temperature of 57F degrees with a NW wind of 10-15mph under clear skies.


OTHERWISE: We can see from the temperature plot this morning that it was quite cool at daybreak. Expecting most of North Central through South Central and South Florida to be in the low to mid-60s this afternoon with the coolest locations to be near and east of Titusville and north along I-95 and east as well as all of far North Florida.  


As I'm typing a tsunami is expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands in the next MINUTE!  (side note). Horrendous video coming in from Japan of tsunami resulting from the prelim 8.9 Great Earthquake in Japan.


Breezy this afternoon between 11AM - 3:30PM with wind from the NW at 12-20mph, gusts in the 24-28mph range. For some folks yesterday over Central Florida, the temperature didn't get much warmer than it will be today, but yesterday was wet and cloudy, so all in all it might feel nicer today than yesterday out of the wind and in full sunshine. Will feel much cooler in the shade in areas that are in the wind. Winds will die down significantly after 4:00 PM.


TONIGHT: Following the overall coolest afternoon (today), tonight will be the coldest evening with lows in the low-mid 40Fs wide spread, with some mid-upper 30s thrown in North Central toward West Central west of Orlando, as well as some isolated pockets South Central. The immediate A1A corridor should be similar to that of this morning, but extreme South Florida will also feel more of the cold's impact. NW - NNW winds over night in the 5-10mph range east of the intracoastal, weaker far inland. Could find some frost North Central.


SATURDAY: (Side note - waves have begun to arrive at The Islands, impact unknown. It is only about 3AM in the morning in Hawaii at this time).  Saturday will start out as noted above, but warm into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Clear sky and very light wind. Will assess the potential for cooler conditions along the coast from Canaveral and north, but at time appears the synoptic scale temperature grid/winds compared with the ocean temperatures will be nearly neutral, off setting any sea breeze cooling affects for the most part.  Thankfully, as the air mass will remain dry today through Monday, the winds will be near calm at times offsetting the otherwise increasing Fire Weather threat due to afternoon low humidity values. Soil moisture should have increased as well due to the broad expanse of rains yesterday and the evening before.


BEYOND: Cool mornings continue Sunday and Monday, each day progressively a bit warmer than the day before. Warmest afternoon  temperatures will be first noted over the South Half of the State and the Panhandle, filling in everywhere by Wednesday. No rain foreseen for the next 10 days at least as temperatures return to 'normal'.

Rainy Day In Store (not all day), Strong Thunder Possible South Central/South

 

Images: First image shows the current lightning activity as of 7AM focused around Tampa Bay and over the Gulf Of Mexico. Also shown in this image is where there is a small chance of hearing thunder today within the bounds of fuschia colors, within the light blue colors is where I'm expecting a better chance of general thunderstorms, and within yellow is where some stronger storms "could" occur today between 1pm -4pm.  Also included is the image from yesterday's post for today's forecast. Not too much of a difference between yesterday and today. The area in the second image over Volusia/Flagler was being considered for last night (yesterday). Indeed, some storms did approach this area between 8:00-10:00pm.

RECAP: Most everything unfolded as expected yesterday initially. The 925mb winds from the south overspread the western Panhandle and far south Alabama. Some tornadoes were reported in these locations as was expected might happen when those winds overspread this region.

We can also see there was a large number of strong to severe strength wind reports and damage related to those winds (where the little palm tree icons are). The stronger gusts over Florida are not aligned quite right. Those occurred primarily from near Orlando NNE toward St. Augustine where gusts were in the 40-50mph range (strong).

After the stronger winds aloft pulled out of the area over North Florida the squall line sank south as an Outflow Boundary minus the upper level support later in the afternoon. The storms over Orlando toward Flagler county were associated with sea breeze convergence induced storms and not the squall line activity other than up by St. Augustine.  The line could have also sank south as more of a reflection of colder air aloft sinking south, reflected at the surface on the leading edge by the well organized line of weak convection that moved into all of Central Florida later in the evening.

NOW: Thunderstorms are occurring as I type of the Tampa Bay region, with a broad area of light to moderate rain spread across most of North Central Florida at this time. Everyone over most of Brevard west to near Sarasota and north will soon be in the rain, some heavy, with some lightning (mostly aloft) by 10AM. Not expecting this activity to be strong early today. Actually, we see below the storms have already cleared the Tampa Region now that I go back and look one more time before making this post. Can probably discount any chance of thunder today other than where the strongest potential area was drawn in the image above.

TODAY: Most of the area of some thunder and a better chance of it will be getting overrun by cloudiness, preventing surface based destablization.  However, it is also in most of this area that the best wind and voriticity fields, as well as mid-upper level thermodynamic profiles exist. Further south in the potential 'strong' storms area wind fields are not as supportive, but surface based instability combined with cold upper level temperatures, although not as cold as those further north, are still cold enough to support strong wind gusts in the 40-50mph range as well as pellet to peanut M&Ms sized hail, maybe even big as large gumballs (worst case). There might by one or two storms that COULD produce said criteria.

Outside of the storm 'potential' (stressing that word), much of Central Florida will be in light to moderate rain through early-mid afternoon as upper level energy at various levels passes overhead, coupled with cold air aloft and moderate instability. The actual cold front has just cleared Tallahassee. Rains will end on the west side of the state first with ending of the rain from North and west toward the East and South with the east coast from Central  Brevard to the Keys being the last to clear of those rain chances between 4pm -7pm. 

There could also be a good break in the rains over Central early to mid-afternoon, but the actual cold front still has a lot of energy associated with it, so lifting mechanisms will likely produce a line of showers passing through once again before all is said and done during those hours noted above. Not expecting any thunder with those showers at this time, but it is possible.  Not really expecting this 'second round' over far Southeast Florida by the time it gets down there tonight. In general, the front will be crossing all of  Central to South Florida between 1pm -7pm.

TONIGHT: Following the front tonight will be WNW-NW winds of 12-20mph with some stronger gusts up until about midnight. Lows will fall into the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to the lower-mid 50s further south.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY: Winter returns, sort of. It will feel cold Friday morning and just too darn cool during the day with winds expected to remain somewhat elevated in the 10-20mph range from the WNW-NW, perhaps gusting to 25mph during the afternoon under full sunshine. Lows temperatures will be colder further north, looking at some 30Fs.  Saturday looks to be the coldest statewide, with everyone sharing the wealth in regards to it feeling too darned cold, relative to what one is used to in their region, especially since it's been so warm lately (above average). Could be seeing upper 40s as far south as the Southern Tip of the state. Afternoon highs on Friday I'm fearing will struggle to break 63F degrees with cold air advection still in place, and of course warmer south and colder north.  Saturday the wind won't be nearly as strong, and early spring sun angle should warm things up considerably (probably make it feel warmer than it actually will be in wind protected areas). Likely not a cloud in the sky.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Very cool morning lows, with gradually moderating afternoon highs. Returning to near normal on Tuesday or Wednesday. There are hints that we might have another shot of showers/storms on Tuesday, but will discard at this time. Factors just don't seem lined up well enough, and there is no consistency between models. Also opting and singling the next system out because ever since the GFS started showing this entity, it has progressively been slacking off on its impacts to the state.

Severe Weather Panhandle Today - Some Strong Central/South Thursday

This image shows storm reports yesterday through this morning. Note the reported tornadoes in NE Texas, as was being monitored in yesterday's post.  There has been innumerable tornado warnings since late yesterday, but comparatively near zero reports other than these noted above. The other biggest threat which has materialized has been flash flooding and strong winds. We can also see that a waterspout was observed by a pilot 15 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale. I also observed a suspicious looking shear funnel about 1 1/2 hours after the time of the Ft. Lauderdale waterspout very near the 520 Cswy. over the coast (Cocoa Beach) yesterday, dangling from the ill-defined base of a sprinkling ocean shower which was part of a covergence line.  It was hard to tell if it was an actual funnel or just a cloud filament, but for about 45 seconds it was very pronounced, and weak rotation seemed apparent. Also in this image, I've outlined an area in red in the panhandle where I'm monitoring for additional tornadic activity today. See more below in that regard.

TODAY: The storm system responsible for the flash flooding and flat out flooding in some areas as snow melt meets areas of prolonged heavy rains due to training storms down stream of the melt will continue today and expand NE ward into Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginas, and Pennsylvania.  The main line of overnight activity is passing through West Alabama as I type. Below is the current radar at 8AM EST. Wow, it's already in Central Alabama.  I've annotated in red the area to be watched today for tornadoes, although there exists a much broader area of 'potential' as well.

This line is moving quite steadily, considering just 3 hours ago it was passing over the Tuscaloosa area. Note the lagging portion over extreme Southern Mississippi. I've annotated on this radar image the main threat area to watch today through late afternoon. Latest guidance is indicating a strong 925mb wind 'streak' to move across this area from the south which will be undercutting strong jet stream level winds from the west during the time of peak heating (although heating will be greatly limited due to precedent cloud coverage). It'll all be about the sharply veering winds with height in the low levels that would be the prime instigator of potential tornadic activity here. As a matter of fact, as I'm typing a tornado watch was just issued to include the west half of my red/outlined area.


Over the remainder of the state today. Breezy and partly cloudy. East to ESE winds this morning should remain in the 12 -20mph with gusts to 28mph this afternoon, especially along the entire East Coast. Winds become more SE-SSE later this afternoon and remain elevated. Not looking for any rain through daylight hours, but will be watching for a sea breeze convergence line to form very close to Route 27 (30 miles either side of that line) late this afternoon as was referred to yesterday.  It will be warm and muggy today, particularly interior and west side of the state with highs in the low - mid 80s, with A1A temperatures north of Vero Beach in the mid-upper 70s up and down the coast, near 80F south of Ft. Pierce and coolest north of Brevard.


TONIGHT: It's now looking unlikely that these mainly low topped showers that form along Route 27 will be unable to latch on to the prevailing WSW steering flow higher up in the atmosphere above them, so not expecting them to make much eastward progress beyond Lake County to western Orange County, although a few could break loose and head toward NE Florida after 10pm. As winds become almost due south after 1AM, a separate area of coastal showers from near Boynton Beach to Daytona could ride up and along the immediate east coast as this will be a moist, long-fetched low level wind and nearly parallel to the warm Gulf Stream waters which are currently in place near the coast from Port St. Lucie and south which will advect directly NNW ward into the Cape Canaveral area. This would amount to a chance of a rain shower or two along and East of I-95.  Otherwise, the stronger activity associated directly with the storm system will be spreading east across the Panhandle, but appears will weaken substantially from Tallahassee and East as the stronger low level winds mentioned earlier lift northward and out of the main 'threat' area.


Overnight lows will be similar to those of last night, perhaps even warmer. Thus, overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Muggy with a S wind at 10-18mph.


THURSDAY: Storm system (rain), and our last shot at any real rain for quite some time to come, will be over most of North Central Florida at daybreak. The remainder of the state south of the Beach Line to south Tampa Bay should be dry right before sunrise, but this quickly changes with the first vestiges of sunlight.


Pre-frontal trough/confluence zone ahead of the cold front will be steadily marchinh ESE ward across Lake County at sunrise, with some stronger storms possible just before or at daybreak from the location toward Volusia/Flagler counties shown in 'blue' below.  


New resurgence of storms/showers emerges west of the Tampa Bay area and expands eastward during mid-morning.  Prefrontal trough to move across Central Florida between 9AM - 12:30pm with the heaviest of activity moving onshore the west coast, then weakening. Little heating of the day due to prevalent cloud cover will likely hinder strong storm develop initially, but expecting to see radar light up between 9:00 - 10:00AM with storms to the west developing and pressing east due to the fact that Central Florida will be in the left exit region of a departing jet stream max. Divergence aloft and horizontally rotating gyres aloft (vorticity) at various levels will increase shower/storm coverage  Activity with these rainshowers and some thunderstorms (some of which could be strong due to wind gusts of 40-48mph and pea to dime sized hail) now appears will have it's greatest impact in the secondary area bounded in blue below. 


This image is the general threat for thunderstorms tomorrow generated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The blue lines are of my own making.  Will be mainly watch the east half of the state south of Vero Beach between the hours of 11:30AM - 2:30PM, as the stronger Gulf Storms will be crossing this portion of the state with potentially less early day cloud cover and thus more heating (leading to destabilization). Again, we see the other area further north due to pre-sunrise activity  area noted just north of Brevard to watch for a strong storm more directly related to the synoptic scale wind fields, not due to destabilization.  


We can see from this image that much of immediate Central Florida 'could' be slotted from any threatening weather conditions, but this could change EASILY after events unfold later today and tonight.  The areas shown below are merely based on overall synoptic scale forecasts generated at 1AM this morning and not on mesoscale features that develop once initial activity has commenced.  Probably most everyone will received rain between later tonight and sunset Thursday, varying from a trace to 1/2 inch, maybe even a 1" total somewhere. Storms will be moving at 20-30mph, so the heaviest of activity won't linger long enough for larger rainfall totals.

So when does the rain end? Again, per guidance (which is in close agreement), the actual cold front will be across Central Florida at sunset with indications that the atmosphere will remain quite moist and 'stirred up' even after passage of the confluent/ pre-frontal activity earlier in the late morning/early afternoon. With that, there is a chance of an isolated rain shower South Central / South Florida until sunset, but completely gone shortly thereafter.


FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Very cool to cold, especially since it's been quite some time since much of Florida (other than NW Florida) has had winter like air in this region. So the bark could hurt more than reality.  Cold air advection/infiltration will be in full swing all night Thursday night and all of Friday.  Morning lows Friday in the mid-40s inland, upper 40Fs near the coast. Afternoon highs I'm tempted to leave in the lower - mid 60s on Friday due to continued cold air infiltration. However, given the time of year and higher sun angle (as opposed to early January), this could translate to upper 60s and quite breezy from the NW. Dry (which is not good as Fire Weather threat will start to be an increasing problem from this point on).


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A cold morning with some lows in the upper 30s northern portions of North Central, with more mid-upper 40s interior down to SW Florida and on the north side of the Big Lake.  Cold air advection will have ceased though, so winds should relax more with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s South (and hoping this is not wishful thinking in regards to how warm it will be).  Sunday will be another cold morning in the interior, but gradual warm up along the coasts overnight begins.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Continued very gradual warm up, with temperatures returning to seasonable norms (highs in the mid-upper 70s) by Wednesday. No chance of rain at this point, and don't see any arriving anytime soon.

Good Potential For Severe Weather Far From Florida's Fair Weather Today

Image shows an area of Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Today surrounded by a Slight Risk. Note the extensive cloud cover currently in place over the area that is expected to experience the most prominent zone of contention. Much of East Central Louisiana is also National Forest. Storms will be hard to spot by the naked eye due to either clouds and/or trees, combined with the fact that most of this activity will occur near and after sunset. "Lions, and Tigers, and Storms...Oh My". (Do they have apple throwing trees in the Kisatche National Forest?)

Another view of the risk areas today. The area in NE Texas (I annoted myself) is another potential risk area of very isolated nature during daylight hours. From that area south a line of convection is expected to elongate and broaden  as it cross into Louisiana while also spreading fan-like into Arkansas on its northern flank..

FLORIDA TODAY/RECAP: Much of Florida was cooler than was 'officially' forecast yesterday by a good 5-10F degrees; think we might have done a little better on the post yesterday in this regard.  Today should be (and already is) much warmer.  Overnight lows were realized along A1A in many locations between 8-10pm as expected would be the case, with some areas warming by 5-7F degrees by sunrise due to the weak easterly overall low level flow and advection of high dewpoint air into the coast.  This also aided to create some patchy fog and smog around the "Ironhorse", where I-95 was closed once again in the same areas as the night before. 

A1A highs in the low-mid 70s warming to upper 70s with some low 80s west of I-95 South Central and South Florida. Leaving out any showers east coast today although models are showing a few to come onshore.  Best chance for rain today during daylight will be far SW Florida, although question the reflectivity return indicated on simulated radar of a thunderstorm down there. East winds most locations at times with a few more northerly component winds east portions of North Central early should all become ESE-SE by day's end. Gusts in the 20-25mph range in a few locations inland and SE Florida late morning through early evening.

Meanwhile, storm system gathers momentum and comes together from NE Texas, E Oklahoma, and points east and southeast into Arkansas, Mississippi, and all of Louisiana.  The best chance of tornadic activity is over the 10% hatched area in Louisiana heading toward and after dark. Not looking good for late night "Fat Tuesday" parties in the Bayou Sate. Expect a large number of wind damage reports due to fallen trees across power lines and on to some structures, given that this area has already received some generous rainfall totals a few days ago and the soil is probably still a little unsupporting/saturated to hold trees with weak or rotted rooting, especially since additional rain will be falling in the same locations with the strongest wind gusts.  That said, will also be watching for flash floods across much of Mississippi/Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

TOMORROW: Storm system will have lost a lot of its initial punch, but nonetheless will remain to pose some threats across Southern Alabama SW and West Central Georgia and the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee west. Other areas to be watching are beyond the scope of today's post for a number of reasons. But one that stands out the most is that a lot of what occurs tomorrow will be an end result of what eventually transpires today and tonight which in all reality will not be known until it happens.

Outside of the area of concern, Central and South Florida will enjoy another warm and breezier day, with SE-SSE winds late in the 12-20mph range, gusts to 26mph. Overnight lows tonight along the East Coast in the mid-60s and cooler inland just a bit, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/low 80s, although A1A from Sebastian and north will likely only make it into the mid-70s. Maybe even some mid 80s on the west side of the state.  Perhaps a spotty shower east side just about anywhere. 

Better chance of showers toward late afternoon/early evening up and down Highway 27 west of Orlando. Some of these could break loose and head toward the east coast along and north of the Beachline, with an arrival there between 10pm-2am. Otherwise, another very mild overnight with increasing atmospheric moisture content throughout as the 'weather system' approaches from the WNW.

THURSDAY: Best chance of rain will have been ongoing since Wednesday in the Panhandle, spreading into most all portions of North Central by sunrise.  Pre-frontal trough to cross East Central right around 1pm , then begin to lose identity over South Central. Cold front is several hours behind this feature.  Best chance for some thunder will be from Ormond Beach to Vero Beach on the east side slanting SW toward the other coast to somewhere between Brooksville and just south of Sarasota on the west side. In other words, all of Central Florida. The Storm Prediction Center is watching this area for some "Strong Storms", but I don't see the potential quite yet, but it's tempting to make the claim.  There is a subtle difference with this system from the last one (which left many folks dry). 

The difference lies in its "attack mode" from the north. Upper level support will almost pass well to the north of the state before taken a second southward plunge late morning/early afternoon. Should this occur, wind fields aloft will strengthen as temperatures cool there as well, providing for some additional lift to the moist atmosphere. However, this will happen and be gone in the twinkling of an eye, so even if it does occur it'll have to do so in perfect sync with the placement of surface features, where-ever they may happen to be at the time. In other words, even if it does happen it could occur without notice other than for westerly winds to strengthen late afternoon after the rain has moved out.  Guidance indicates the rain chances could last across Central Florida (south half) to South Florida until dark, but I'd guess that it will end much sooner across Central Florida. Rains are pretty much over everywhere by mid-evening (if not sooner).

Away from the system's direct effects, SE Florida will have a chance of showers by mid-afternoon through dark well before any storm related surface boundaries move into the area, with perhaps some thunder as well, most likely just offshore somewhere between West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale late afternoon. Front makes a clean pass of the entire state well before Friday's sunrise. Much drier and cooler air in the system's wake will make for some very pleasant early weekend weather. Could start out quite breezy from the west on Friday, but can iron that out as the time draws closer. Very cool mornings and an afternoon or two Friday and Saturday with a pretty quick rebound to near normal by the end of the weekend.

Cooler Today Statewide, Especially East Of US-1 North of Cocoa Beach

Image: Roseatte Spoonbills at the Merritt Island Wildlife taken after Christmas time. No meteorological items of interest in Central/South Florida on the maps this morning for today worth noting, see discussions below.


TODAY:  Cold front has cleared the state this morning. Coldest temperatures in the low 40Fs and a few upper 30Fs in far NW and North Florida, warming  mid 50s most other areas...with some upper 50Fs thrown in. Winds have become NW-NNW with some overcast sky conditions currently over NW Central, partly cloudy to clear most everywhere else. Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the WNW to NW to affect North Central later this morning through early afternoon, at least.


Otherwise, along the coast of East Central and NE Florida some Atlantic stratocumulus clouds are looming just off shore NE Brevard to onshore NE Florida.  Earliest frames of visible satellite animation shows them encroaching on NE Brevard north of 528, and they already have up by St. Augustine.  Winds this morning to remain NNW to North through early afternoon at least most everywhere, eventually veering to NNE mid-late afternoon. Not so sure they will ever reach the coast today, since further atmospheric drying will occur this afternoon which would erode them before impact the coast.


Only stickler today is the high temperatures east of US1 from roughly SR 520 to Jacksonville. Most other areas will see highs in the lower-mid 70s, warmest SW Florida, and likely the coolest for the area mentioned in the previous sentence.  Ocean temperatures are running in the low-upper 60s in this zone, so with an onshore wind component later today, expected high clouds and POSSIBLY greater influx of low level stratocumulus late afternoon off-setting to some degree normal afternoon heating, looking for highs here in the mid-upper 60Fs, but wouldn't be surprised to see some renegade 63-66F degree readings seeing how cold air advection is still underway at 9AM over North Central and North Florida.


Iron Horse is 100% 'contained', but that does not mean it is out. It is still quite smoky near the embers, and portions of I-95 have been closed in North Brevard/South Volusia since after midnight. As of this writing some areas of Southbound remains closed. Expect they will open up entirely before noon, but visibility will remain restricted in this area.  It smells  faintly smoky in Cape Canaveral this morning, but this should diminish shortly as winds veer more northerly. Probably the worse of it will be along routes 46 and 50 east of Orlando this afternoon, smoke diminishing the further south one gets.


TONIGHT: Continued gradual veering of winds from NNE-ENE overnight. Cool inland temperatures in the mid-50s (colder far North Central and North).  East coast east of US-1 will moderate after midnight, particularly south of False Cape (or from Port Canaveral and south) along A1A. Coolest temperatures here should occur between shortly after sunset to 2 or 3AM (upper 50Fs), warming to 62-65F degrees near sunrise south of Port Canaveral.  


TUESDAY: Winds remain generally from the East all day at 10-15mph during the afternoon at the coast, lighter inland. Warmer inland with highs in the mid-upper 70s, coastal (A1A) highs north of Sebastian in the lower to mid 70s, warming to mid-upper 70s pretty much state wide everywhere else, including Panhandle. Possible light showers far SE Coast near Miami Metro. Afternoon Cumulus humilis clouds along and west of I-95 *see below.


WEDNESDAY: Winds become more SE-SSE late and increase 12-18mph during the afternoon under scattered clouds, nearly clear some areas east of I-95 where stratocumulus clouds cease to advect on to the coast from the Atlantic. Daytime heating/weak instability would be the catalyst for low topped afternoon cumulus humilis clouds such as these pictured below, perhaps a little larger this day to low topped cumulus:

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Big storm maker from East Texas and through all of the Deep South will be approaching Florida late Tuesday afternoon, moving into the Panhandle overnight Wednesday night/early Thursday.  Rain chances ramp up by Wednesday evening West Coast and Panhandle. Early indicators reflect perhaps two pre-frontal waves/chances of rain showers North Central/North Florida prior to the actual cold front passing through Thursday (sometime between 11AM-3PM).  


Both the NAM and GFS are showing a spurious / suspicious area of rain breaking out near Sarasota over night Wednesday that translates across the state and exits the east coast somewhere between Port Canaveral - Daytona Beach prior to sunrise, Thursday. Should this manifest, it bears watching in regards to strong/severe weather. Chances are it never will materialize, but this bears watching since the wind fields at the time will be becoming increasingly favorable for at least mid-level rotation. Instability won't be an issue in regards to being a contributing factor for strong activity, and even with increasingly marginally favorable wind fields, it will only be rain with perhaps some elevated thunder.


THURSDAY: Going to leave out timing of fronts and boundaries for now, as this will change with every model run up until actual arrival, which as events have unraveled so far this year, will likely not happen as any of the models show they will anyway right up until it actually arrives. 


Case in point, yesterday as well as the day we were in the "Tornado Watch" several weeks ago. Looks good on paper but that's about it. Suffice it to say for now, rain 'chances' look pretty good for North Central and North Florida the first half of Thursday daylight. Spreading toward South Florida by mid-afternoon through sunset. Isolated thunder is again possible, with strongest activity Central from 10:30AM - 2PM.


FRIDAY: BY now rain chances end everywhere with a bonafide cold frontal passage. Could be looking at lows in the mid-upper 40Fs as far south as interior toward Lake Okeechobee. Then again, as the GFS has over estimated the extent of cold air intrusions in the extended period  all winter I'm not ready to latch on to numbers. But it will be cooler for a few mornings Friday thru early portions of the weekend. Let's hope it does rain as much as models are showing though (1/4" -1/2" in general). Chances for more rain in the extended look dismally low as we enter the climatological peak of the Dry Season going into April.

Tricky 8-Hour Forecast Today, Next Rain Chance Thursday

Image: Contrail from yesterday's Atlas V Launch. Skies cleared as expected in yesterday's post and winds were within the threshold to meet launch criteria as we know now. Surprised the contrail for this launch was so 'wimpy' considering that a 5000ft cloud deck had just cleared the pads area less than an hour before, so moisture was there. Contrail seemed to form, based on the sounding, where the atmosphere was the most dry.

TODAY: Scrambling this morning to make heads/tails of recent evolution of events since 7AM. As noted yesterday, the cold front shown in the image below still well out in the Gulf of Mexico this hour would be preceded by a pre-frontal trough to cross the East side of the state around the 1-3pm time frame. Surface winds after day break were to  veer to SW by late morning, and skies would be mostly cloudy. In fact, they did shift somewhat earlier prior to the area of rain showers that passed earlier this morning, but have backed to south or even SSE in some locations once again.


Some form of a pre-frontal trough evolved early and raced across the state at 70mph as the main storm system well to the north of Florida continues to lift away. Believe this event was associated with the main storm features / upper support pulling away.  This boundary was accompanied by some rain showers, one of which I watched race from Polk County to the coast near Cape Canaveral in about one hour's time. Was this the pre-frontal trough (if there is every going to be one at all?).  Winds behind this boundary continue to remain from the South (even SSE some locations) all the way over to the west side of the state after becoming SSW earlier this morning, meaning that either (A): More significant activity could be in the works for the hatched area shown in the image below later today as another pre-frontal trough forms along the region of lower pressures shown over West Central Florida in the image below, or; (B) All activity will await the actual front and be weak; OR (C) neither of these cases with near no activity anywhere across the state with a dry frontal passage. These seems unlikely.


MODEL DISCUSSION: In watching local WRF model runs and comparing to the NAM, GFS, and RUC it is plain that none of the models agree when it comes to the precipitation fields which is what today's post is pretty much all about, especially in light of the fires over all parts of Florida during the past week (there are many more fires than have made the 'headlines").  In other words, all areas could use some rain.  The RUC has been consistent with showing the bulk of the rains to occur over the East Side of the state south of Brevard county, in other words, SE Florida. On the other hand, local WRF runs are showing the bulk over East Central Florida where I've drawn the lavender hatching, with nearly nothing over South Florida other than some scattered showers near the coast. Very little north of  Daytona / Ormond Beach and western portions of North Central Florida.  However, latest RUC as I just peaked, is starting to share the wealthy just about everywhere. The NAM falls somewhere in between the two, but the GFS seemed to have a handle on the situation as of last night (and continues to remain the most consistent) that would match the local WRF run. So I am running with that, which happens to be the best case scenario for rains over Iron Horse (which by the way, last I saw is now 95% contained).

FORECAST: Clouds this morning, per visible satellite loops, should clear some over East Central from west to east between 11AM -2PM. Winds to remain primarily from the South to SSW (SSE southeast Florida).  Could see another pre-frontal trough develop near that area of low pressure shown on this map over West Central. However, this anomalous area of low pressure has been showing up every afternoon the past few days (oddly). Only difference today is that it popped quite early, normally reserved for the afternoon hours/thermally induced. Highs today under clouds in the low-mid 70s, upper 70s where clouds break more, and some low 80s South Florida, away from the coasts.

Best chance of rains will be from 12pm through 5pm spreading from West to east. If the WRF model is to verify, we'll have to see a broken line of showers developing in about 2 hours from now (or after noon time) on the west side of the state which will move east and strengthen once it reaches that area shown in purple above. This broken line of showers with embedded lightning (possibly) will progress east and south through the afternoon, never making it much further south than Ft. Pierce. SE Florida could see showers just about anytime toward noon and beyond, but is never impacted by the more organized activity further north.  Best chance of a thunder storm or heavier rain showers, again, in the purple area. All models agree that Central Brevard will have decent values of CAPE today no matter which model one looks at.  But the models do disagree overall of where the majority of this will exist which is important for storm sustenance.  

The other thing to consider is that the best wind fields will be from the Beach Line - Orlando - I/4 line and north, whereas the best instability will be further south.  Additionally, these 'best winds' are in the process of pulling off and away as I write, well before peak afternoon heating/instability time. 

This is the case time and time again, not only this year but others as well.  Storm systems this time of year are making weaker passes at the state in general, and lifting the strongest winds fields to the north of South Central and South Florida, leaving this area without the benefit of at least a high shear/low CAPE environment conducive for heavier rainfall, with just enough instability to generate rain showers. No matter how one slices the pie, once one gets north of Daytona/Ormond Beach the rain chances wane greatly.

So in a nut shell, expecting rain showers just about anytime from noon and beyond SE Florida. Maybe some heavier activity/thunder just off the coast later this afternoon. Best chance of rain/thunder East Central beginning 12-1pm in the area shown above, spreading west to east. Rain chances end all areas between 7-8pm, assuming they manifest at all. Keep the umbrella handy if heading out today, just in case. 

Any heavy rain shower or thunder could contain a very brief period of gusty winds of 40-45mph immediately preceding and during initial onset of rainfall. Again, assuming they occur.  WRF at this point is hopeful thinking in regards to rainfall right over what is left of the fire most inappropriately dubbed "Iron Horse". Be real, an official names a fire after where he CAN'T go to party during Bike Week. "Duh-Winning!". What a troll.

Atlas Launch Chances Look Improved, Strong Storms Possible Sunday

Image shows the location of LC41, from which today's  launch of the OTV at 4:09pm is scheduled. Official forecast is calling for predominant favorable sky conditions, with the chance of an intermittent broken deck at 5000 ft. More on this in the the discussion below.

TODAY: Full latitudinal surface trough/cold front progressing through the Deep South late this morning. Tornado Watch box has been issued for parts of Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and SW Alabama in advance of the boundary. This front will be affecting the Panhandle tonight and the remainder of the state working into early tomorrow morning through sunset (South Central/South Florida) and clearing the state by sunrise Monday with lingering affects far SE Florida/Keys. See image below for a forecast for 1pm tomorrow.


LOCALLY: Atlas V launch scheduled for today. Only factor that would preclude launch now it appears would be winds, which don't look strong enough/nor will be/ to hinder.  Forecast concern is a deck of 5000 Ft level clouds conducive for triggered lightning. But as it appears now, with a good deck of cirrus moving overhead as I type to last into peak heating (early afternoon), this deck will not be able materialize. Any clouds trying to form over the Gulf Stream to be advected toward the coast decay as they slide under the cirrus deck.

Also, any rain showers well offshore are petering out as they approach the East Central Coast as they run under the cirrus deck.  Surface winds at launch should be East to ESE at 12-18mph, gusting to 23mph.  As I type now, the latest observations along False Cape and the landing strip have winds gusting to the 21mph range. Is that too strong? That is not the official forecast, just my line of thinking. As such, believe the launch should be able to go, but bears watching in regards to wind. In any case, looks better than yesterday as of 11am.  We can see the pad from which it will launch is a bit further south of the Shuttle Launch pads per the image above.  The actual vehicle being launched looks for similar in shape to the shuttle, just smaller.

SUNDAY: Winds tonight to die down late night and shift from SE-SSE-S by daybreak. Mild overnight temperatures in the low-mid 60s under partly cloudy skies as some strong storms enter the Panhandle and progress eastward toward the Tallahassee region.  Day break over Central should yield to partly cloudy skies South Central/South Florida to near mostly cloudy far NW North Central. Winds S-SSW at 15mph, gusts to 22mph by midmornign.  Slight chance of showers with increasing mid-upper level clouds.


By late morning one of two weak pre-frontal boundaries will cross Central, perhaps accompanied by a rain shower.  The stronger trough will enter and cross  eastern portions of North Central and East Central Proper (from roughly the Pineda Cswy to Sarasota and points north between 11:30am - 3pm time frame.  During this time a 250mb jet streak is forecast to pass directly over Central Florida providing a lifting mechanism. Additionally, this will occur during peak heating, albeit offset/precluded of greater instability by early day clouds.  Winds with height become increasingly unidirectional working into the afternoon hours, but they do increase namely along and north of the Beach Line - I4/Tampa. line.  Could see a slight sea-breeze as well  further south along the coast as far north as Sebastian/Melbourne Beach area.  Actual cold front does not cross the East Side of the state until near to just after dark. Temperatures aloft tomorrow will be cold with 500mb forecasts showing -15C and 700mb showing 0C.  If this were a summer day, we'd be talking about severe storm likelihoods with those numbers (considering the surface temperature would be in the 90Fs).  Below is a forecast for 1pm EDT tomorrow. Orange areas are weak troughs preceding the front which will take all afternoon to cross the state. The parent surface low near Virginia will be moving NNE nearly paralleling the coast.

However, this is not summer. Expect highs tomorrow, assuming there will be increasing clouds spreading from west to east during the time of heating, to only be in the upper 70Fs, warmer South Central and South with some low 80s SE Florida.  Still, hard to ignore the jet stream streak winds, moderate instability, and weak convergence along the surface boundary, especially right at the coast from Cape Canaveral to Melbourne Beach (especially if a sea breeze develops).  


With this said, believe strong storms are possible all of North Central north of the Beachline from North Tampa Bay east to Oakhill, with better chances the further north one goes.  Slightly less likely chances north of a line from Sarasota to Sebastian Inlet. Immediate East Coast from Daytona to Sebastian between 11AM to 4:00pm (south end). We can iron out the details early tomorrow in regard to timing, and/or the reference to strong storm potential. The "strong' part would be in the form of wind gusts of 40-48mph and tiny hail. And maybe a brief/weak 'spin-up' tornado east of I-95 from Cocoa Beach - Sebastian (however, this chance is close to entirely nil as of this writing).


Further south toward southern South Central to SE Florida will experience convective showers with thunder possible as well, particularly from near Boyton Beach south to Miami along the East Coast beginning mid afternoon through dark. But activity there should be below the 'strong' threshold due to the timing of the boundary entering this area close to, if not after, dark, as well as that fact the mid-upper level winds of substantial strength will be pulling off to the north and east of this area after having crossed Central Florida before the surface boundary (s) arrive down there.


MONDAY: Pleasant day at hand post-front. Temperatures comfortable in the mid-upper 70s. NW winds veering to NNE east late. Could get smoky smelling over much of Brevard due to 'Iron Horse'.

Will The Atlas V 501 (OTV FLT 2) Launch Today At 3:50 EST

Image: Video Grab taken from my Cape Canaveral location of a prior Delta Launch.
March 4 @ 3:50 pm - Atlas 5 - OTV (X-37B). The Launch Team is continuing their operations toward a 3:50 pm launch. According to the 45th SW Weather Squad, there is a 70% chance the weather will be unacceptable for launch. The primary concerns are gusty Ground Winds and Cumulus Clouds. 
See this link for a live simulcast access to launch 25 minutes prior to launch: http://www.ulalaunch.com/site/default.shtml
ANOTHER LAUNCH ALSO SCHEDULED FOR NEXT FRIDAY: March 11 - Delta 4 - NROL-27


TODAY: As you might have read above, the restricting factors for launch today are clouds, but probably of more greatest assuredness are the gusty winds.  Winds at this hour are from the east gusting to 22mph. with a rain shower. Here's is a photo (just taken) of what this low topped rain shower looked like from near Port Canaveral looking north toward the pad. Acutally, it had probably moved beyond the pads area by this time.  See radar image further below.

So, again, whehre will the clouds be  around launch time and will there be too many ? Maybe, maybe not. They are not a constant, with some very good breaks between the surges of them and rain showers. So timing will be of the essence. What about the wind? Could be close as well. I do not know what the exact threshold is for winds. It can vary from launch to launch regarding both speed and direction from which it blows for certain missions, although I do not know if this applies to unique Atlas launches. But as reads above, I'm assuming the 70% no-go is based on winds primarily, since that forecast was made well before the scope of rain shower activity was known.


OTHERWISE: No changes from yesterday's post regarding upcoming days. Winds generally easterly today at 12-18mph with gusts to 28mph. Rain showers possible, widely sporadic.


TONIGHT: No change, but winds will abate a little at the coast, more so inland. Coastal lows (A1A) in the mid-60s, low 60s/ upper 50Fs further inland. Better chance of showers from Canaveral and north to Jacksonville later today and through the evening.


SATURDAY: Few changea as wind gradually veers to ESE-SE very late in the day with light rain showers possible.


SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Winds veer to south over night and decrease, then pick up after sunrise from the SSW-SW by noon as a pre-frontal trough / cold front couplet approaches from the WNW.  Rain chances increase by early morning spreading from west to east across North and North Central Florida...roughly along and north of SR 528 / I4 / Tampa.  


Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs, cooler further north to precedent cloud coverage. Very small chance of thunder after noon, with most likelihood along and north of I-4. Shower chances end from north to south / west to east shortly after sunset.  Rain chances end South Florida by early evening.  Winds shift to NW - N -NNW going into Monday morning.


IRON HORSE: Last I can find, the blaze is only slightly more than 25% contained, solid as a rock (iron ore). Probably has changed some by now.  Some showers did pass close to the burn today, so that may have helped matters somewhat, but they were far from 'drenching'. Some showers are passing just south of the burn as I post.

 One of the big concerns with this wind is if any lit ambers were to get lofted toward a fresh/unburned area nearby only to ignite another blaze. Smoke will continue to advect upstream per wind directions, and as alluded to yesterday...it might be the area SSE-S of the blaze (most of Brevard) that will bear the brunt of the exhaust by early Monday morning.  Next chance of rain arrives sometime on Thursday or very early Friday.

Will "Iron Horse" Smoke/Smell Meet It's Namesake Sunday?

To the left is an image of the location of the Iron Horse Saloon north of Daytona Beach as annotated. The yellow area sketched in is where smoke and/or smell could become an issue on Sunday from Sunrise to early afternoon. Arrows show the expected shift in surface winds from sunrise through 3pm. The following image is a forecast generated by the North American Model (NAM) this morning for Sunday afternoon.

We can see from this forecast image that surface winds overnight Saturday into Sunday morning will shift from SSE to SSW-SW. The net affect would be to advect the smoke and/or smell

from the Iron Horse Blaze location toward the Saloon.

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Again, above we see the forecast per the NAM for Sunday at 1pm. SSW winds of 20mph are forecast to develop with daytime heating ahead of the pre-frontal trough. These will gradually become more SW to finally NW overnight going into Monday.  HOWEVER, there could be a saving grace for North Volusia County/Southern Flagler. Rain chances go up during the course of the wind shift. See more below in the detailed forecast discussion.

TODAY: Continued easterly fetch. with embedded bands of enhanced cloudiness, and perhaps some very light spurts of rain in the worst cases. Any showers to impact land will be very brief and light with the quick flow indicated at steering level aloft. This image above was just now saved from the web site called "weathertap". It is totally overcast as I type as that small 'green' area by the Cape is passing overhead. Other areas of similar conditions, which might have some trace rain are moving ashore, and this will continue to be the case this afternoon. For the most part skies will be partly cloudy, with east winds gusting to 22-28mph at the beaches (east coast). Highs in the mid-upper 70s, warmer interior and west.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY: Similar situation for today with no measurable rainfall expected. Wind not as strong late night through early morning, but do expect winds to again be breezy on Friday.

SATURDAY: Winds will become more SE-SSE during the day, possibly stronger than today. A cold front will be approaching the state. At this time the smoky stench from "Iron Horse", whether or not it is still burning, will be advected toward Deltona/Deland/Sanford/Osteen areas. However, rain chances also pick up for the coast and the burned/burning area beginning later Friday through much of Saturday from Cocoa Beach and north. It might be just enough rain to appease the flames, but could actually make the smoke/scent situation worse for folks close to and upstream of the blaze as the particulates will be closer to the ground. I'm definitely not a fire weather/particulates forecaster, so this is just a heads up from what little I do know.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Winds overnight Saturday into Sunday should let up after midnight to early Sunday. At this time the vector points toward the "Iron Horse Saloon". Again, will it have rained enough, if at all, to prevent the vapors/smoke from reaching that far NNE? If it doesn't rain, could get pretty crummy even that far north. Especially since winds will really die down overnight Saturday night. Could get really nasty around Edgewater north toward "Wilbur-By-The-Sea".  Otherwise, expecting increased cloudiness at day break over all of North Central Florida, decreasing further South as one gets south of Brevard/Osceola Counties.  High temperatures in the upper 70s, with lowers 80Fs far South Central/South Florida.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Latest NAM/GFS have indicated a frontal passage sometime Sunday night, and this continues to be the case. The only fly in the ointment concerns rain chances. Could be raining as soon as mid-morning for the east side of the state north of Melbourne Beach between the eastward advancing pre-frontal trough and the retracting high pressure area over the Atlantic that will have been generating all this wind today through Friday.  

Due to the time of arrival of the pre-frontal trough (peak heating hours), some of these rains 

could translate to thunderstorms (weak).  Guidance shows little in thermal instablitiy, but there is some shearing as well as more mixing due to voriticity both in the lower/upper levels of the atmosphere than I've seen in sync with a surface boundary than I've seen with previous systems. The impacting values are pretty weak, but the sum total of them all could result in a storm with thunder.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Probably our best chance of rain North and North Central will be associated with the pre-frontal trough, and not the front itself, although rain (but not thunder) could still occur until the front has cleared this region. Do believe the percentage of the region of North Central Florida up to Jacsonville to receive measurable rain from the period beginning late Sunday morning through evening will be about 70%.  It won't be raining that entire time by any means. That number just reflects total possible recipients over the entire time frame.

Further south toward Southern Portions of South Central and South East Florida (or roughly from Sebastian Inlet to Miami), rain/thunder chances are notably smaller. However, SE Florida from Boyton Beach to Miami might get convective type showers Sunday afternoon indirectly related to the pre-frontal trough as well as with the front. Not sure the pre-frontal trough will ever reach any further south with an impact other than a wind shift from SW to W south of Vero Beach.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Will tackle this time frame tomorrow. But for the most part this system will have cleared the state, or be dwindling in some form or another over far south Florida where a rain chance will linger on the SW side of the state. No big temperature changes at all, if any, from recent days after the period of abnormal warmth ended the other day.  And lastly, if rains don't add up enough (although I highly expect they will)...could smell kind of smoky for the north half of Brevard County on Monday.

Persistent Onshore Flow East Coast Through Friday

For today post, please see the link below. Rather than writing out a long 'winded' discussion today. This sums it up.  Thank you accu-weather. Small craft and rip current advisories almost guaranteed. Water temperatures might be getting warmer, particularly south of Ft. Pierce, but watch the rip currents if venturing in the water through Saturday.

Only thing to add is rain/temperatures:


Warmest overnights South Central / South Florida east coast with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. Coolest west side.


Highs in the mid 70s, some upper 70s west side, coolest NE Coast. Rain chances slim, but most likely along the east coast (particularly Thursday from the Cape to Jacksonville.


Winds will become more easterly Thursday to ESE Friday and SE-SSE Saturday. Rain chances almost nil after Friday.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/46441/dangers-lurk-for-florida-east.asp