Thunderstorms (Some Strong to Severe) Tuesday Beginning Early

Above is the latest official forecast issued by the Storm Prediction Center today for Tuesday issued this morning with a questionable area in the black box. However, continue below regarding this discrepancy. Note that the above is valid thru 8am Tuesday morning.

TODAY: Very pleasant and breezy along the East Coast, particularly of Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties mid-late afternoon. Winds SSE 12-20mph with gusts to near 25mph later this afternoon up the intracoastal waterway. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with humidity levels on the rise today, particularly near the east coast. Chance of a mid-late afternoon showers in the vicinity of Gainesville into Ocala, possibly west Flagler County into the early evening.

TONIGHT: Strong surface boundary of various atmospheric temperature and wind gradients within a deep full latitudinal 500mb trough is sweeping across the Mississippi River Valley/Ohio River Valley Basins this afternoon, and into through the Deep South. Several tornado and severe thunderstorm watch boxes encompass this region as of noon. Mainly tornado watches as we can see below:

Tornado Watches in Affect. Nearly 400 severe weather related reports have already been logged since early  evening of Sunday night with this storm system as it progresses east. Mainly from high wind and large hail

OVERNIGHT: Here is a time of contention is POSSIBLE (not definitie) for North Central and a portion of South Central Florida.  Note that at the time I started this post, , Florida was not within a threat for severe weather, per the graphic at the top in the 8AM time frame.

However, by all appearances, there was that area in the black box that really drew my interest. In this area I checked forecast soundings from two different models for the time period along with a VAST plethora of other atmospheric parameters and come to the conclusion that the region in the box, or roughly Flager, Volusia, and the North Half of Brevard County as well as parts of Orange and Seminole Counties stand a shot of severe weather during the hours of 6-8AM. Kind of odd considering the actual surface boundary of contention (the cold front), will still be way back in the panhandle.

Based on sounding data and all the other goodies used to make this determination, it appears a squall line composed of high bulk shear and cold air aloft along with moderately strong very low level wind speeds, partly from a suddenly developing low level nocturnal jet streak will blossom during a 'transition time'.

What is the 'transition time'?  Guidance has indicated for 3 runs that the full latitudinal 500mb trough will begin to acquire a 'negative tilt' where the base of the trough will swing forward ahead at its apex and be aligned a bit from NNW-SSE ...in other words the base will proceed the axis of averaged flows in lower levels of the atmosphere. 

During this time a subtropical jet across the Southern Gulf of Mexico will be working northward from over South Florida...the two are SUPPOSEDLY going to phase together right as a 500mb vorticity maximum swoops through the base of the continental trough...strongly across Central Florida. If this occurs, expect rapid storm develop between the hours of 3-4:30AM which will move almost generally E-ESE and strengthen with time while approaching the coast an hour or two before dawn through sunrise to just after sunrise.

There actually is a few locations that it could be especially nasty...for instance..over North Brevard surface instability will be greater prior to this event than that further north, with dew points approaching 70F degrees right long the Brevard County coast to the Port. As I write, the SSE winds of today are advecting this juicy air up the coast and into this region.  This low level instability does not appear will reach north of Brevard County. However, further north into Volusia and Flagler Counties...winds aloft are a bit more strongly stacked ...with higher bulk shear throughout the 'bulk' of the atmosphere. 

Therefore, I drew in the box as noted at the top of this post...even though this area was not outlooked for active weather during this time frame by official outlets. It looks like, should this occur, the activity will have cleared the area by 9AM, if not sooner. Straight line winds of 60mph and hail of 1-1.5" inches are possible (although stronger winds are possible).  Forecast soundings also show a bit of a "dry slot" just above the ground...which will be conducive for the cold, denser air aloft to descend and accelerate through the drier air as it reaches the ground. 

Vertical velocities (upward motions) through the low and mid levels during this time frame are conducive for the formation of hail as well...the number (hail size) is  just a gander, based on the fact that  the lifting condensation levels will be very low during this time frame. In other words, condensation of moisture into rising air parcels will begin close to the ground at the same time the anticipated low level nocturnal jet will be in play.

It is also interesting in that this is all supposed to occur in an area of relatively high convective inhibition. (an atmosphere NOT conducive for storms)..thus...THIS EVENT IS ONLY POSSIBLE...NOT a Given.

While typing this post, a new Day2 Severe Weather Outlook has been issued...with a starting valid time of 8AM...as we see below:

NOTE THAT THIS VALID TIME FRAME STARTS AT THE SAME TIME THE OTHER ONE ENDED, YET MOST OF FLORIDA IS IN A RISK AREA NOT SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR THE SAME TIME (12z). WHAT'S WITH THAT?!

In conclusion, perhaps all that is written above wasn't so far off base after all. The above graphic is valid through all of Tuesday.

OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING EVENT: The NAM and GFS models are almost in perfect harmony with timing of the frontal passage proper. They both agree the front will cross Florida 3 hours LATER than previously proposed in all of the model runs the past two days up until just before this post, with the front barely clearing Brevard County at dusk as virtually every wind field, instability, and related parameter ia swept offshore. The front lingers over South Brevard before simply dropping through the remainder of the state with little fanfare.

However, there may be another round of thunder storms with the frontal boundary itself as far south as South Brevard. The front is forecast to cross through Volusia around 2-3pm and slide into South Brevard around 4-5pm before losing much of its dynamic energy. Then, in the process of the sunset and the energy having departed...quickly clears the remaining southern portion of the state in the following 3-5 hours.

BE ADVISED THOUGH: This is only one possible scenario, and it could quickly change with the next run of models. The later frontal passage does not surprise me in the least though.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Totally different bag of tricks. The same vorticity pattern that is set to ignite the prefrontal squall line further north will cross into South Florida in the following hours after sunrise where thermal instability will already be well in place. Wind profiles aloft south of Brevard County quickly become weaker but the air aloft remains cold, so strong winds of 55mph or greater are possible, as is small hail, but timing of such is difficult to narrow down beyond writing that it will be sometime after 10AM, possible much sooner.

Rains/Storms will end all areas, the far east coast last, by 8pm for the most part...and in most areas much sooner than that.

IN SUMMARY: Mostly cloudy tomorrow except over South Florida through mid morning, with a near 100% chance of rain. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be pretty strong, or even severe.

TORNADOES: At this time, they do not look likely, but one could occur, as it often the case in Florida with strong or severe thunderstorms. Lips are sealed on where I think those have a 2% better chance of occurring than other places...so as not to raise either a red flag of warning, nor to put folks at ease in thinking the are out of the woods in this regard. Simply know way of knowing.  Even South Florida without the wind fields, could experience somewhat of a mesoscale accident along storm outflows, especially once the anticipated squally area further north could potentially send an OFB (outflow boundary) into the region.

BEYOND TUESDAY: Very pleasant through the remainder of the week. Behind the cold front it is very nice to know there really isn't much cold air! Return to normal or slightly below normal temperatures for a day or two...and that's it. Dry.

Two more potential systems loom on the horizon going into the next 12 days.

Much Warmer Monday, Some Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

Attached is the Official Storm Related Outlook Issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 3:29AM Sunday morning, valid for Tuesday. SPC has placed the Florida peninsula in "See Text". This is reserved for when 1) some storms could be strong; or 2) it is deemed that strong activity seems fairly likely, and that the area is being monitored for an upgrade to a "Slight Risk" of severe weather. Please see the body of this post under "TUESDAY" for an explanation of the markings I've superimposed on the image.

TODAY: The second of the two cold fronts associated with Friday's storm system now long gone has cleared the Florida peninsula. Winds immediately behind the boundary are northeasterly becoming easterly today, eventually ESE to SE over far Southeast Florida by late this afternoon into the evening. For the most part, today will be much like yesterday with changes in store beginning late this afternoon first over SW Florida. Otherwise, highs today along the A1A corridor in the upper 70Fs with low 80Fs far inland and all of the west side, some mid 80F SW Everglades region. More moist air will work into South Florida later today, and a rain shower is possible west of metro Miami and eventually NW ward toward Sarasota until 9pm. Once daytime heating has been sufficiently squelched the rain showers there will end.


MONDAY: Winds becoming SE-SSE all day, breezy along the east coast/beaches particularly and up the intracoastal of Brevard into Southern Volusia, especially 2pm -6pm. Moisture will increase throughout the day with the long fetch persistent SSE flow at play bringing dewpoint temperatures into the low-mid 60F degree range, and near 70F far South Florida. Rain showers are highly unlikely anywhere.


MONDAY NIGHT: After hemming and hawing over 6 model runs of 3 different models, it appears that somewhere in Central Florida will receive a rain shower which will form after peak heating in the late afternoon. Guidance has been all over the place as to where this would occur, but the focus has been somewhere in South Central Florida, with a new one popping up in the morning GFS in NE Florida.  Based on averaging all these locations together, the most likely scenario this morning after the 12z runs came out is for a small cluster of showers, perhaps initially a weak thunderstorm to form near the Polk/Osceola County line inward toward Orlando Metro. If this does indeed develop, the activity will be swept ENE-NE ward toward the east coast and weaken. Thus, somewhere between Daytona Beach to Cocoa Beach could have a rain shower somewhere between midnight and 4am. Overall rain chances are basically zero...but I noticed that the NWS has thrown a 10 percent chance of rain into the forecast for some folks overnight which backs this theory up.


ELSEWHERE:
 Meanwhile, a very mean storm system will be developing this afternoon over the east central Plains states with an associated cold front. Strong jet stream level winds and deeply rich moisture laden air with cold air aloft will spread across portions of the Deep South later today, combined with veering wind profiles will set the stage for all modes of severe weather beginning late today and expanding in terrain going into tonight and tomorrow morning, Monday. There is a chance of large, damaging hail initially over East Central Kansas spreading NE ward into Missouri before dark, after which stronger wind fields will move in to the north of this area going into the evening. The hail threat will translate into a tornado threat further north toward Chicago mainly just to the SW of that location...but they are not left out of the game.  Activity will be on going tonight but weaken a bit in general until Monday mid-morning when the front confronts the warm, moist air that will have been on-going for a full 24 hours prior. Conflicting air masses will provide the ingredients for supercell thunderstorms and bowing line segments of particularly vicious nature. Tornadoes are very possible, almost likely from Louisiana northeastward into Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee, and Southern Indiana where the warm moist air from the south confronts cold air aloft and stronger winds. This entire region is most favored in different areas for different reasons, so I won;'t go into the finer details.


MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE: The storm system's main energy will be carried to the NE and into less favorable northern latitudes to sustain severe storms, but the southern more portions will continue east ward as an advancing squall line composed of strong straight line winds as the winds aloft become more unidirectional with height. Further south, a tornado threat will continue, but the likelihood of formation becomes less favorable with time due to the departing upper level support. Don't get me wrong though, there will still be plentiful factors at play...so the storm threat continues east and south into the Florida Panhandle.  


By sunrise Monday morning the front will be advancing into NW Florida toward North Central. All models agree that the front will enter the far reaches of North Central Florida around 8am.

It is at this point we refer back to the annotated image at the top of this post:

TUESDAY: Peninsular Florida will remain warm, moist and breezy over night Monday night...as the frontal boundary approaches stronger upper level winds will spread across all of North Florida, sinking into a portion of North Central at daybreak. There might be a brief lull in the activity over the peninsula near sunrise, but that could change after 8am as a secondary upper level broad streak of stronger winds moves in from across the Gulf


FROM THIS POINT ON, THE REMAINING PORTION OF THIS POST IS LARGELY BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THOSE WINDS WILL MANIFEST.


  By that time the boundary will be approaching Daytona Beach. The South HALF of Florida in the meantime will have ample time to warm and become modestly unstable, but not tremendously with almost no convective inhibition. With dewpoints near 70F far South and in the mid-60Fs South Central...storms very well could ignite by 10AM and expand in coverage well in advance of the actual frontal boundary. If storms remain more isolated they could be strong. Greater coverage, even if only showers, will cloud up the sky and cut off the 'heat' supply. If they remain more isolated, a severe storm is possible south of the red line I've drawn in with all those little red question marks inserted to emphasize this point.  


NOTE: It was not until late yesterday that this pre-frontal shower activity was hinted at by one model. The subsequent model runs not only showed that more than one model was following suite, but also that it would be more likely, especially (and quite rapidly) after 10AM Tuesday morning.  There was one run that showed near severe category level intensity type storm over the Everglades and SW Coast, as well as the Lower East Coast region, but that has not re-emerged as a viable option, yet.  But the fact that this was implied once might mean it could come to fruition in later guidance.


Outside of South Florida, it gets very complicated along the 'red line'. The front is forecast by the two mainstream models to be situated along that line around the 1-2:30pm time frame. The strongest wind profiles with this storm system throughout all of the atmospheric levels are not expected to make it much further South than Port Canaveral...however at one level they remain the whole way to South Florida.


For this reason, do not foresee a strong outflow boundary to suddenly swoop southward as a result of the main line suddenly collapsing.  The strongest activity should occur near the same location as where it occurred both last Thursday and Friday, being that area will receive both the benefit of the destabilizing air mass over South Florida and the last of the remaining stronger wind fields aloft. I've drawn in a potential area that COULD be upgraded to Slight Risk of Severe in later outlooks, although the NWS in Tampa has made no reference to such.  Probably 'wantful for excitement' thinking on my part, with no one to bounce such illogic against me.  It is possible that all of South Florida would be upgraded, but unlikely. We'll see.


Further east toward Orlando and the Space Coast, this system could come through as a "multi-tasker"...with both the unstable Southern Peninsular activity combined with the passage of the front as heating will have begun.  The fly in the ointment here is that antecedent cloud cover will likely reduce CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) more than what model guidance indicates.


However, if cloud coverage is not as thickly distributed across dead Central Florida...a series of  storms could ride along or near this line depending on where multi-parmaeters have set up boundaries between where they are weak vs. strong.  We will not know where to draw the line until Tuesday morning. In other words, at this point this is strictly a 'theory'.


Otherwise, at this point in time given the amount of unsurenesses already at hand...we can generalize in writing with saying that there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a couple could be strong. I will watch each and every model run from here to eternity to see how subsequent runs vary within and between them through tomorrow to monitor the trends and future evolution of any unforeseen circumstances.


IN CLOSING: This system does not appear will be nearly as 'threatening' as the ones last week. So an elevated awareness at this point in time is not required.  Just be aware for now. 

Beautiful Weekend In Store, With Rain and Storms Highly Likely Tuesday

It's Better To Remain Weatherwise, than Otherwise,
and such will be the case for some Floridians Early Next Week

TODAY: What does one write when the sky will be clear all day, with very comfortable temperatures. Not much; there, it's been done.


TONIGHT: A very weak secondary frontal boundary associated with the same system that brought the rains/storms on Friday followed by the cool front which dried the air out and cooled everyone off to air conditioned temperatures last night....will skim by and down the coast thru the afternoon, reaching the Miami area around sunset.  Ironically, although this is a secondary cold front from the same big storm system, it will warm the temperatures up along the East Coast over night tonight due to the wind shift off the ocean that will follow it.  As such, little change tonight from that of last for most folks inland, whereas East side residents will awaken to less cool conditions Sunday morning with an ENE-E wind of 10-15mph perhaps. 


ON SUNDAY: Could see some early day clouds, but subsidence behind the easterly winds during the afternoon courtesy of a somewhat  modified east coast sea breeze should clear them out to the west while the lower atmospheric levels start to return to moist levels (higher dewpoints).  Winds Sunday 10-15mph, perhaps with a few stronger puffs from the east as winds continue their trek around the clock from 2pm to 5pm...figuratively and literally. By days end winds will be ESE-SE as moisture levels increase. Noticeably warmer Sunday with highs in the lower 80Fs with coastal highs in the upper 70Fs north of Ft. Pierce along A1A.


MONDAY: A very potent storm system will be in progress across much of the Eastern United States which will first start to rear its head, perhaps in spotty fashion in the far South into Texas...but heading further North toward East Kansas and more so in Missouri and all across the Ohio Valley a true tornado threat will materialize. This system and associated frontal boundary will progress Eastward and morph into one giant Quasi Linear Convective System, more commonly referred to by those not into the details , a squall line. This line will contain all forms of convective modes, with tornadoes possible initially, but becoming less likely the further east that it pushes.  


Locally, there is a very small chance of an afternoon shower or even a thunderstorm in dead Central Florida late Monday afternoon before sunset. Model guidance has swayed one way or another regarding this rain chance, but it has been fairly consistent that the Orlando area or thereabouts into Osceola County could get a storm or two which will move east with the setting sun, perhaps affecting the coast somewhere between Cocoa Beach to Daytona. However, the chance of said is very small, but not entirely impossible. The most likely scenario is that any rain should it happen to form will remain west of I-95 and fizzle from bottom up as it encounters the sea breeze. Meanwhile, winds on Monday will be from the SSE-S at 10-15mph with warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies.


MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING: The aforementioned severe weather system (expecting severe storm reports in the 150-300 range, primarily from straightline winds/hail and some tornadoes) will be pressing into the Florida Panhandle along its southern most extent. The worst of this system will impact the area from Pensacola to Tallahassee, Panama City eastward toward Jacksonville and south toward Cedar Key to a St. Augustine or Ormond Beach line before the sun rises (western portions) and as it rises to the first hour or so after sunrise on the east side within a zone of continued severe category level conditions, although not nearly as potentially violent as those that will be felt much further to the north. As such, expect at least a portion of North Florida will be in a tornado watch  before daybreak.


Tuesday  morning further south will be very muggy with temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs, becoming progressively cloudy after sunrise Central, not so much if at all far South Central and South Florida.


Basically, think of what Friday was like. Timing of this system appears will be very close to that storm system. With that, there is a chance that as the front pushes east and south it will be preceded by dark skies to your west and across the northern horizon. More storms could fire up pretty quickly within the first hour after sunrise Tuesday morning along and north of the Beach line west toward Tampa Bay, although the area around Brooksville might already be under the gun with some strong, possibly severe storms with any of the severe modes possible (strong wind, small hail, a tornado).


Conditions will deteriorate along dead Central Florida fairly rapidly between 8-9am and spread south with time while the Daytona area will have already  been under the gun by this time.  


It is uncertain at this time, with two more full days for models to hem and haw, to determine the storm strength south of Brevard County over to a South Tampa Bay line. Much is left to be determined in the synoptic scale, and this does not even assume some other solutions in regard to an outflow boundary sweeping south into Central and South Florida which would put a major kink in this forecast's timing issues already at play.  


Brevard County south to Miami.  


In regard to storm strength/intensity, believe the southern most limits of possible severe weather will be along a line from near New Smyrna Beach on the east side to near Bradenton on the west side. South of this line strong to marginally severe is possible from Central Brevard to Sarasota on the west side. South of that line strong storms are less possible over all of south Florida (but not entirely negligible), but a severe or two could occur over South Florida due to localized outflow boundary interactions and/or if the leading line of storms over Central Florida suddenly collapses and sends outflow rapidly south. Such events can seldom, if ever, be foreseen, but do be aware of this possibility. I can see this happening on Monday, more so than I could image it would happen last Friday, when wind fields remained strong aloft throughout the day. Winds may pull out early and allow the boundary to drop south, like the rug was pulled out from underneath it.


HOW WILL THIS SYSTEM COMPARE TO THE ONE LAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY?: For the most part, for folks south of Ormond Beach it won't even come close. Wind fields aloft are forecast to be significantly weaker by a wide margin that those of our previous event. Most folks may not even hear thunder with this system, whereas others could be very active in a few pockets about anywhere from North Central to South Central. The chances of strong activity further south becomes marginally less with distance toward South Florida when not accounting for any outside expected 'atmospheric accidents".


*SPECIAL NOTE: This system is still a few days away, so a lot could change between today and Monday night, so please do not take my post this morning as Gospel (does anyone anyway?)...Simply remain weather wary during the weekend. I'll be doing another post tomorrow of course, and at that time the situation will have been reassessed yet two more times before the next post is released.  By tomorrow the timing of the system should be locked in pretty well, as should the anticipated strength of the storm system as it crosses North Central and South Central Florida.  The main thing I'll be watching is North Central into parts of South Central, whereas in Southern Florida it appears that little will change other than whether or not showers/storms will break out well in advance early Tuesday afternoon as well as if an outflow boundary will race south into the area.  


WILL IT GET COLD AFTER THIS SYSTEM?: Guidance initially indicated we could be in for a late season taste of winter in terms of very cool to near cold air, but have slacked off considerably in those regards (thank goodness). Winds will become onshore within 12 hours after the system clears each area, with onshore winds all areas by Wednesday after sunrise.

After 4 Active Weather Days at Times, 4 Pleasant Days Return

Preliminary (not fully verified/processed) severe weather related storm reports from Thursday from the SPC website. Note the cluster of tornado reports (6), 3 confirmed,  near Tampa with the blue dot over Palm Bay on the east coast. The storm responsible for that report tracked across the entire state.

BRIEF RECAP: March 28th - 31st were some very interesting weather related days for parts of Florida at various times as two large scale storm systems poked the SE U.S.  West Central Florida bore the brunt of this activity overall, where rainfall TOTALS of all days combined reached up to 12" in one location. There was two other smaller scale systems that hit mainly only Florida on two of these days. The main impacts were strong winds in isolated pockets.  Severe sized hail was reported on 3 of the days, but I've found no damage reports related to hail...although some small car dents likely occurred in those few chosen areas where hail met severe criteria size (1" circumference or greater). We can recall there was a Mesocscale Convective System, pictured below:

This system left a surface boundary over South Florida which remained there into the following morning. And as a result, 2 or 3 strong storms (1 severe) formed over South Florida this day. A 2" hail report came in, but the strongest of storms was not reported on by an eyewitness because it developed over an unpopulated area:

There was also a small storm that formed over South Brevard another morning that sent a strong outflow boundary northward. This storm was warned by the National Weather Service, but the worst of it was experienced from Patrick AFB to Cape Canaveral, where surface winds gusted to 49 mph, with no rain away from the storm proper. The lightning was pretty to watch at a distance before sunrise.

Lastly: Two back to back systems hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday was mainly a squall line type by closure, but originated quite differently. The West Coast bore the brunt, but the east side got in on the act during the squall line which contained embedded bow echoes.
The number one impact from the squall line was wind, but it also dropped large hailstones as seen here by this Palm Bay stone photo which appeared in the Florida Today paper, submitted by a reader.

We see here in this sounding from the Space Center why the wind was so strong. Note the 'dry layer' in the lower portion of the image where the lines spread apart. Yet they are close together further up in the atmosphere. Cold air was up there. As cold air fell through the drier layer below it, the air parcels accelerated downward..reaching the ground and spreading  forward to the storm motion...further enhancing the wind being produced by the storms otherwise. Note that the winds just above ground were nearly 60kts, so it is of no wonder that a wind of 85mph at KSC was measured, as well as 74mph at Orlando International and 65mph in Cape Canaveral and nearly that at PAFB and Melbourne. Who knows what other velocities were felt elsewhere, but they were likely similar considering the amount of damage, some structural, that resulted. Additionally, one waterspout was reported in Sykes Creek in Merritt Island, although that cannot be confirmed. I''m skeptical about the report since I saw the cloud formation that generated the report and was on the river at the time the report reads the waterspout was sited. Here is an image of a suspect part of the bowing line segment that might have been what created the waterspout. It almost looks like a wall cloud. This feature was NOT short-lived...persisting until the storm had moved on and while I was being chased out of the Manatee Viewing Park by 'some sort of guard guy dressed like a bum'. I guess they heard about the wind reports coming out of Orlando and had ample time to go there and chase folks out. Darn. The wind was an interesting spectacle to behold, but in no way was 'life threatening' in open areas. Heck, it barely even rained that much in my location. 

The finale came on Thursday with the cold front and strong jet stream level winds aloft. More storm reports came in as shown at the top of this post...with the tornadoes on the west side once again. Rainfall totals were much higher on Thursday...because that 'dry mid level' of Wednesday was absent with a more fully saturated atmosphere. The clouds looked very interesting this morning before the storms moved in...but it would take a true sky reader, appreciando type to recognize how 'interesting'  and truly rare this day was. Rains across dead Central were the highest as the boundary was slow to move south until after sunset, with widespread 1.5" -3" reports across Central Florida.


There was a report of hail again in Palm Bay on Thursday, but I was there and only witnessed  BBs on the wind shield, more audible than visible.


FORECAST: Pleasant today and tomorrow with WNW-NW winds. Dryer, and gradually warming through tomorrow. Becoming less dry Sunday morning.


SUNDAY: Winds veer more toward the NE to ENE-E-ESE through the day Sunday. Another pleasant day with afternoon cumulus as the atmosphere begins to reload with moisture. Warmer overnight Sunday night. No rain.


MONDAY: SSE -S winds all day, breezy. Becoming humid. A violent storm system and the first tornado outbreak of 2011 is anticipated for part of the Ozarks and Mississippi River Valley Basin...heading in to the far western Florida Panhandle overnight into Tuesday morning. From the looks of it, much of the most violent weather will occur while it is dark and in heavily forested, hilly terrain. This will be a dangerous situation for those folks Monday night into daybreak Tuesday where storm visiblities will be limited to terrain, trees, and darkness.


TUEDAY: Storm System has entered Florida shortly before daybreak. It is guaranteed that the Panhandle will be in a tornado watch before sunrise. Winds becoming SSW inland, remaining almost due south along the coast. Humid! 


North Florida: Expect a tornado watch to be in affect over the Panhandle, with a subsequent watch to be issued with its southern extent running from Brooksville to Ormond Beach by mid-morning (this is less likely, but probable). 


It is possible that strong to severe weather could occur further south from near Port Charolette up along the west coast, including Tampa Bay, with a secondary area running north of a line from Tampa Bay - Port Canaveral. That would be the most southern extent of strong weather. South of this line, storms will weaken significantly as they move into South Florida during the late afternoon. However, it can't be emphasized enough that this system affecting the Central and Southern Peninsula is still 4 days away...and timing on said events already varies between two of the models by a good 12 hours, as well as the overall intensity of the storm system beginning on Sunday going into Monday while the system will be impacting the Ozarks and Deep South. So in essence, stay tuned to future posts if you are a reader in  peninsular Florida.


Happy April Fool's Day!

STATUS: Severe Threat Continues For Central Florida

Severe Threat Continues , Particularly for a line running north of Sebastian Inlet over to Sarastoa

BRIEF STATUS UPDATE POST LATE THIS MORNING: Latest surface analysis and time lapse loops of actual observations indicate that a region of 70F degree dewpoint air is racing northward from the region shown along the redline above (over South Florida) to its current location shown above as well. The leading edge of this moisture rich air mass of pink colors is forecast by the RUC model to reach the Beachline within the next two hours.


Additionally, although surface based instablity over East Central is weak at the moment, there is still plenty of Multi-layer convective available potential energy aloft combining with strong helicity and shearing winds along an axis running along  where the black line is drawn. This moist air is forecast to meet the sheared environment in the next 60-100 minutes at the same time that stronger jet stream level winds will be crossing North Florida.


Surface observations also indicate that perhaps a weak surface low circulation had developed over Polk County, while a secondary one seems to be forming over Eastern Osceola County. Winds have already backed at the surface along the coast of Brevard County in response to these developments. The RUC model is indicating that further development is expected through 1pm. A funnel cloud (perhaps tornado) was photographed over Polk County earlier this morning near the surface low circulation.


NET EFFECT?: It remains possible for stronger activity to develop as we approach 12 noon over all of Central Florida, namely 50 miles either side of  of the black line drawn above. This activity will push rapidly toward the east coast through 1-2pm.


It appears that the conditions favorable for severe activity will lessen a bit after 1-2pm, but it will remain unstable for further rainshowers and some storms through sunset over North Central Florida. The actual cold front is not forecast to clear dead Central Florida until around 6-7AM Friday morning, so more rains could be expected until that time. The intensity of which is too soon to determine, although guidance leads one to believe it will not be as strong as what is currently or forecast to occur in the next 1-3 hours.


Rain is not indicated for any of South Florida until much later tonight through tomorrow morning, where some strong thunderstorms could occur into the Keys over all of the Southern 1/3 of the state.

Potentially Significant Severe Weather North Central Through South Florida Today

Current water vapor image shows that 1) strong upper level winds are diving south to the Gulf Coast and 2) subtropcial flow is riding E-ENE across the Gulf Of Mexcio. A surface low near Tallahassee will strengthen and move off to the ENE today.
This image also shows in general where a tornado watch is in affect, with SPECIAL attention of my own doing in the white box.

Quick post today to get to the facts and thoughts, and fore go discussions about the wide spread severe weather that occurred yesterday over North through Central Florida. South Florida did not experience severe weather yesterday, but that will change today. In brief, lots of winds in the 55-85mph range and hail up to golf ball size occurred with wide spread damage, but none significantly so in this area.


Got to make this quick...already hearing thunder!!


TODAY: Strong upper level winds diving south to the Gulf from the Northern Plains and Canada will phase with the subtropical jet stream winds just near or south and west of the Florida Panhandle through the morning. A surface low will strengthen in that area and move off to the ENE pulling a frontal boundary southward with time toward Central Florida.  To cut to the chase, upper level disturbances developing in ever strengthening WSW-W flow aloft (which will be VERY moist), combined with cold air aloft is already generating tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings before the two big wind streams have even phased together.  As such, the severe weather threat will continue and likely strengthen with time. TV stations will be covering the activity live, so bone up and listen in if you have the chance.


Although tornadoes are possible today, the biggest threat as noted yesterday I believe will be very strong straightline winds, possibly embedded within very heavy downpours.  Today will NOT be like yesterday regarding the nature of the storms. These could be very wet storms, with hail possible as well, although hail size might not be as large as what fell yesterday due to the very odd and unexpected profile the atmosphere took yesterday with a dry slot in the lower mid-levels, it will still be cold enough up there for hail generation.


Perhaps, although I've seen no mention of this yet, a bigger severe threat will materialize in South Central Florida and northern portions of South Florida  south of Brevard County where activity will not arrive until a bit later in the morning toward noon. This will allow thermal instability to mount more there.  However, the strongest wind fields aloft will be over Central Florida throughout the afternoon until mid-afternoon at least. Expect we could see possibly 2 or 3 rounds of storms before all is said and done, with lots of heavy rainfall. Storms will move very very fast today..in and out. So rainfall totals shouldn't be overly excessive, just brief and very blindingly heavy.


Rain could remain over South Central and South until sunset and shortly beyond, but should end for all but extreme South Florida by 7-10pm.


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Looks nice with pleasant temperatures. Winds start to become more Southerly and strengthen later on Monday going into Tuesday ahead of yet another developing storm system. It is possible that somewhere in the April 5th -6th time frame we will have the threat of more strong to severe weather.

Severe Storms Likely North Central/North Today, Significant Severe Storms Tomorrow

Current Satellite Image with a few highlights annotated for later today.
See text below for details.

RECAP: A few strong, severe storms occurred yesterday over South Florida where a 1" hail report was made. The strongest storm was located over uninhabited terrain, so no official report could be obtained regarding the suspected size of the hail in which the storm appeared to contain from radar imagery. Wind reports that came in were below severe criteria. Otherwise, weather was quite pleasant state wide.


TODAY: The pseudo-warm front that lingered over South Florida yesterday afternoon moved north to South Brevard during the early evening. A 'cold pool' from the NNE filtered down the east coast to Brevard County. Warm air over-running the cold pool with winds at the surface off cool waters created a period of low clouds and coastal fog.  


Between 4-6AM the warm front surged northward to the Florida /Georgia border where it has remained as of this writing. SSE-S winds from South Florida (where it will be quite warm today) will ride northward across Central Florida as a developing Mesoscale Convective Complex runs from West to East as noted in the image above by the arrow drawn in.  A tornado watch will likely be issued shortly for the I-4 corridor, but do not know if the Beachline or 520 area will be included in this watch. Believe it might not be, but might be included in a watch during the early afternoon sometime where I've drawn in the box.


Currently, the atmosphere over Central Florida is already becoming primed for severe weather after investigation of a wide variety of parameters used to make this determination. However, the Storm Prediction Center, last I saw, was not really looking at Central Florida as much as North Central. So we'll will have to 'watch and see what they decide". Meanwhile...other than what will be an active afternoon from Volusia County and north...the region from Pineda Cswy and north to Titusville along the east coast needs to be watched VERY closely.


REASON  TO WATCH CENTRAL BREVARD/SOUTHERN VOLUSIA: Believe that warm air feeding from the south (South Florida could reach 90F today) over this region will lead to strong surface based instability this afternoon due to cold air aloft. Dewpoints will be high, in the low 70Fs. That is moist! Additionally, the near coast surface winds should remain nearly perpendicular to the the prevailing westerlies located just over head (which increase with height), or from the SSE-S as drawn in the image in this post. 


 Any storm that goes up in this environment could rotate. Therefore, the area from North Osceola Couny east to (particularly) Patrick Air Force Base to the Cape needs to be watched for storm rotation as well. Expect the storms will intiate just to the south and rapidly grow as they feed northward into the MCS as it passes just to the north along to just south of I-4. These storms will be isolated, but fairly intense. Additionally, IF they do form, they will do so very - VERY rapidly. On the other hand, they might not form...so consider this a significant "Heads Up!".


Storm motion: Although the complex of storms will be moving from west to east, with embedded cells moving around 30-40mph from west to east, storms the might form in the secondary zone near the Beachline will initally form up from the SSW before merging into the complex. So, expecting to see some odd storm motions. Additionally, some storms along the leading, southern edge of the complex might acquire their own, discrete environment and 'break lose' from the complex and drop toward the south suddenly. This would happen near to just north of the Beach line.


Monitor your TV today, especially after 2-3pm, since it is likely that live, continuous coverage will be in high gear by the Orlando stations since portions of their viewing area will be impacted.


Activity all areas will end from west to east by 7-8pm at the latest. Last along the east coast. 


DISCLAIMER: These thoughts/ideas are of my own, and have not been alluded to in any official forecast discussions from formal channels, so take them with a grain of salt. But do be aware that these possibilities regarding the Beach Line region have a chance of occurring (at least, in my mind). Otherwise, the entire day could pass by with little more than a rain shower South of the Beach Line should the above said not materialize.


THURSDAY: Another active day as a secondary system rapidly develops over the Gulf of Mexico during the wee hours and explodes while heading east as another upper level system now located in the far Northern Plains phases with a system approaching in the sub-tropical jet from the west. The two will phase over the Gulf Of Mexico overnight tonight and should erupt fairly rapidly. This system will probably take the form of a Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) with embedded bow echoes and rotating cells along its leading edge.


Currently, all of North Central - parts of South Florida are being outlooked officially in a HATCHED SLIGHT RISK, meaning storms could be SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE. The main threat with tomorrow's system appears will be very strong winds, gusting to 70-75mph, although hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Wind speeds in storms tomorrow have not be formally announced yet, so that number just noted is of my own best estimate. They could end up being even higher. Additionally, they will be moving very fast! Faster than today.


It appears that tomorrow's activity, associated with a strong jet stream aloft and cold front at the surface, will enter the area about the same time as today's will, perhaps a bit sooner. Either way, it should clear North Central through South Central from 2-8pm...but there are some indications that rain could continue until almost midnight over South Central (near the Beach line and south).  


SOUTH FLORIDA: Very tricky. Forecast guidance is showing almost no rain down in South Florida for either system, which does not seem feasible. Therefore, expect a chance of severe weather as far south as at least Ft. Lauderdale in the form of winds and a tornado chance.  


At time, and this will change, the risk for the strongest of activity will be from near SR 520 South toward Martin County. That southern most area needs to be watched even more, since thermal instability appears will be stronger. Antecedent cloud cover over North Central/Central MIGHT tone down the overall intensity of the storms/rain, but that determination is a bit too early to be made with good confidence early this morning.


BEYOND: Another front could clears the state on Saturday/Sunday, but should go through dry. No big temperature falls thank goodness. The next system of contention comes into the picture around April 5th or 6th. It COULD be another severe weather maker, but it's way to early to say with any confidence due to huge disparities between the various models.

Chance of a Shower/Thunder Today - Strong or Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday

Hail depth in the Orlando, Florida area on March 25, 1992! (image from an Orlando paper). It was written that this storm was considerably more costly to this area than Hurricane Donna of 1960 by many millions of dollars.

I've included the attached image as a gentle reminder that March Florida weather can be quite severe. In 1992 Central Florida experienced 2 significant hailstorms three weeks apart, the second and the most costly ones in Central Florida history.  More costly than Hurricane Donna's impact was to the Orlando area. Severe weather (but of what nature?) is becoming more likely for portions of the state beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening and again on Thursday.


RECAP: Boundary that was over North Florida yesterday, accompanied by moderate strength mid-level and upper level winds with weak energy aloft and a lot of moisture throughout the atmosphere yesterday provided the lift for continued rainfall across all of Central Florida.  The strongest weather related reports were those of winds in the 45-50mph over parts of Central and South Florida by the time all was said and done, but no severe category weather was reported.  Rainfall totals were 1-3" inches, with higher amounts determined per radar estimates. 


The strongest storms were associated with what is labelled as an MCS, a Mesoscale Convective System. This was pictured in yesterday's post per a satellite image.  By mid-late evening the boundary pushed toward South Florida as the upper level winds pulled off to the east, with the remnant energy that built up during the day over SW Florida/Keys (where it was rain free all day) generating some thunder in that area. Further north, the rains ended as the stronger winds pulled out, ending the lifting mechanism,  and as of this hour skies are anywhere from cloudy (South and north Florida) to nearly clear in some locations Central. Per surface observations and satellite imagery, it appears the boundary now lies across Broward County and westward north of the Keys. Fog is also being found in variety of locations, but all is quiet (the sun is shining at my location while typing).


TODAY: The atmospheric conditions today look a bit like a modified version of the standard summer day fare, so this unofficial blogcast will follow suit. Modified in the sense that it won't be as a warm as a summer day, but there is that ever looming possibility of a rain shower or thunderstorm.  


Winds today will be light, but mainly from the east this afternoon.  Although low level instability is weak this will be a bit overcome by remaining unusually cold air aloft. There remains plenty of low and mid-level moisture in place, as there really wasn't  a thorough "atmospheric colon cleansing" of the atmosphere behind the front.  Those reasons are about the only signal to support a rain / thunder chance today. What is missing for vigorous storms today is the lack of any moderate to strong upper levels winds/sea breeze/lake breeze convergences or mechanical forcing (although a 'see text' type storm is possible over South Florida (for SPC readers). There is not really any  upper level energy outlooked to pass over head (at least not of this writing), and the only location it appears there will be a sea-breeze collision will be over SW Florida, possibly as far north as Tampa Bay. Steering of showers/storms will remain generally from west to east by early afternoon but start to shift toward a more south to north direction by early evening as the boundary lifts north toward Central Florida , where supposedly it will be located by 8-10pm per 8pm (last night's) model guidance. Main threats from activity over South Florida are those inherent with any thunderstorm, namely lightning....although a strong downburst wind is also possible with the moist atmosphere and cold air aloft in place.


With this said, chance of showers and thunder mainly over SW Florida initially south of the boundary, but gradually spreading east and working north with time during the afternoon. Other showers/thunder could initiate further north near Tampa and work east with time.  It appears this activity will have a hard time reaching east of I-95 north of Martin County (near Ft. Pierce) due to the stabilizing marine influence of the easterly component wind up toward South Central to Central Florida, at least initially.  Best rain chance today looks to be on the west side of the state and all of South Florida/Keys. Secondary area (less likely is late) toward South Central and Central Florida proper, especially near the coast.


 Regarding Central. will be watching the motion of that boundary today to see just exactly how it behaves. What is happening is that it is waiting for the next approaching mid-upper level trough to approach from the west (which will impact much of Louisiana/East Texas for starters today).  As the troughs approach steering flow will be directed to more of a direction from the SE -S-SW with time overnight which will 'buckle' the boundary back north as an ill-defined pseudo-warm front. By tomorrow the same boundary will north of all of Florida.


Best chance of rain further north earlier today will be on the west side of the state west of Orlando (but moving east), then contingent upon the timing of the boundary's return northward, East Central Florida could get in on the much needed rain (although, not as needed prior to yesterday) by early -mid evening. Contingent upon how nice and sunny this afternoon remains over Central Florida, some of this activity (assuming it generates as anticipated) could easily contain thunder and some strong wind gusts. Local WRF model indicates a strong storm of 'see text' nature riding along the coast of Brevard early tonight, but I'm not buying it.


WEDNESDAY:  I've been expecting this day to be highlighted by 'official outlets' for a few days now, and finally (as of this morning) the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded their 'see text' for a portion of Florida to a "slight risk" of severe weather. Namely all of Florida along and north of the Beach Line (SR528)...a.k.a - "The Magic Dividing Line" so often referred to the past several months when it comes to delineating where various weather parameters begin to differ or converge over Florida. Must be the geography of the peninsula or something.  


In any case, the first of two (or more) more significant upper level disturbances to cross North Central/North Florida passes overhead. Actually, the signs of its forthcoming first begin to appear before midnight tonight in the form of stronger upper level winds spreading east from the Central Gulf, overspreading the north half of the state going into Wednesday morning. By morning  the warm front over South Florida this morning  will be well north of the state line. North/North Central Florida will be directly under the left exit region of a departing jet (upper level wind) max at 300mb as well as in a region of divergence aloft within the height region of the 250mb level jet (even higher in the atmosphere) by late afternoon as the troughs at various levels approach.  Very moist atmosphere otherwise and good start to daytime heating (although thermal instability will be somewhat limited), stronger instabilitiy in the mid-levels due to continued cold air aloft accompanied by these strong winds higher aloft will produce the lifting mechanism (per horizontally stretched helicity (coiled like winds) of modest value) to generate very strong to severe thunderstorms. Expect to see a tornado watch issued tomorrow if not already in place over the Panhandle at sunrise, with another watch to be issued further east and south...maybe as far south as the Beach line or Route 60/Sebastian Inlet. But at this point, no further south than a Cocoa Beach - South Tampa Bay line.


Further south, the wind fields decrease in strength significantly rather rapidly, however South Florida will have stronger instability. With that said, the most likely area to get a storm tomorrow further south of the more outstanding region noted above will be on the east side of the state as far south as Southern Palm Beach County later in the afternoon.


The events of Wednesday will NOT be in the form of a squall line, but rather rapidly moving discrete thunderstorm cells and small bowing line segments, particularly across far North Florida. Southern most extent storms will be more isolated...but any storm to erupt could contain hail and severe category winds. A tornado is possible, especially far North Florida/Panhandle, but not as likely working further south into North Central Florida (but you never know).  


Might end up seeing all the activity from near the Beachline passing just to the north over far north Brevard County (east coast residents)...hitting the Daytona area/Oak Hill/Mims.


WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Looks as if activity will end rather quickly across Central/North Central Florida by early evening while the atmosphere 'locks and loads' for Thursday.  Much of what occurs across Florida on Thursday will be contingent upon how much remnant cloud cover or development of flat out clouds upfront limits instability from the get go.


However, wind fields that approach Central and North Florida on Thursday will be even stronger than those on Wednesday. Forecasts are showing jet stream level winds by late Thursday to be in the 100-120kt range, with even lower portions of the mid-levels in the 40+ kt range. These winds will be accompanied by very cold upper level temperatures once again by Florida Standards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) already has most of Florida in a 'Slight Risk" for severe weather on Thursday, but if skies clear up more than it is anticipated they will over night Wednesday night would not be surprised to see Central Florida upgraded to a 'moderate risk'. A rarity! Time will tell. 


Activity will be on the start at sunrise, over the Gulf, spreading east with time and reaching much if not all of Central Florida by late morning to near noon. Again, not anticipating a 'squall line', but rather a mish-mash on radar returns on TV of discrete storm cells and bowing line segments. Some quite vigorous, possibly intense. Radar could be quite the plethora of colors, like a painters pallet. Look out for the "dark red everlasting gobstoppers" and "purple meanies" and those 'spiraling thingy icons' the TV weatherman will point out. Those mean business.


The most likely area to receive this high chance of rain will be north of a Ft. Pierce  to just south of Sarasota line. Expect, if things develop as has been portrayed by the models now for over a week, that local TV channels will be broadcasting continuously "Live" in animated fashion by some point in time. That possibility also stands true to a lesser degree on Wednesday.


Guidance is not painting very  high precipitation totals over North Central Florida, although localized areas could receive over an 1'. This would be because, if my interpretation is correct, storms will more right along and not linger over any one area for long. Higher totals will be due to repeated passage of showers or storms in any one location. The highest totals are over far north Florida.


Further South toward South Florida, it gets sketchy. Models have been on again/off again with even a rain chance at all south of Palm Beach County on the east side. Curious. Believe strong subsidence aloft due to the 'so close yet so far' jet stream max is the reasoning models are tapering off the chance of even a rain drop to fall over South Florida, because that is where all the sun will shine early to heat things up.  Problem is, this area will likely be the most thermodynamically most unstable...so a strong thunder storm  at a minimum cannot be totally ruled out, at least not at this point. SPC already has most of South Florida in a Slight Risk as well regardless of what the models are showing, namely because I'd think that it's simply too soon in time to determine (if ever possible) where to 'draw the line' of decreased active weather in this particular atmospheric set up.


FRIDAY/APRIL FOOLS: For two runs now, the models are showing a last and final surge of moisture and a weaker disturbance to cross far South Central and South Florida from early morning through noon time before the 500mb trough finally pushes further east. Thus, there may still be the chance of some rain/storms from Martin County and South through the Keys for the first half of Friday, while the north half of the state clears out.


WEEKEND: Pleasant with near normal temperatures, perhaps a bit below normal but still comfortable. No rain and light wind.


Next frontal boundary to approach on Monday. Chance of rain/storm increase on Tuesday. Do not expect that activity with the next system early next week (around April 5th) will be as strong (not nearly so), as the atmosphere will be barely recovered from the drying out we will experience over the weekend. The wind energy 'willing', but strong storms not "able". But that could change. Long time from now. All of the state could get rain as well early next week in a 'one shot deal'. Nothing lingering. 

Off and On Again Unsettled Through Early Friday

Post-MCS (mesoscale convective complex of storms) mammatocumulus clouds over Cape Canaveral at 9:15am this Monday morning.

RECAP: A complex of storms, some containing gusty winds, crossed portions of Central Florida early this morning and is now weakening as it pushes through South Florida. Below is the enhanced infrared satellite image clearly depicting the storm complex, coupled with the radar image saved at about the same time frame.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for South Brevard County, but the strongest of winds reported were actually to the north of the storm from Patrick AFB to Cape Canaveral, where winds gusted to 49mph near a Center Street mesonet reporting 'tower'. Winds remained in the 20-40mph range for a good half hour is the storm collapsed sending continued outflow northward.


Below is a more recent satellite image. We see the MCS has weakened while a newer complex has formed over the Gulf, the rains associated with the newer complex are now moving across Central Florida as I type.

Weakening MCS South Florida with a newer complex over the Gulf

Recently saved radar image shows more storms moving across Central Florida. Freshest activity is popping up every 10 minutes I go back to re-investigate the situation.

TODAY: To be frank, model guidance for today is of very little use. Ongoing convection is leaving model guidance in the dust. No outstanding features of note other than a frontal boundary across North Florida and notable mid-level lapse rates providing lift. Now guidance indicates this feature MIGHT sink toward SR528 or south of there  by day's end through the first portions of Tuesday before retreating North to the FL/GA border by Wednesday.  But I'm not laying down any bets on any of the model solutions. Therefore...


Today, with convection in redevelopment as I type, and afternoon yet to approach, believe Central Florida will see at least one or more rounds at any one location of rain, some heavy with lightning and strong wind gusts through late afternoon. Activity is not organized so a watch might not be issued for severe weather, but any one storm could reach severe limits.  The NWS will issue warnings and special weather statements for any potentially significant pockets of stronger storms. 


 Best bet is to be weather wary and carry an umbrella when venturing out. Although there is not a severe thunderstorm watch out at this time, one 'could' be issued, but based on latest information available and based on previous activity being non-severe, a watch seems unlikely...but don't bet on it. Things could change very quickly going into noon time and the afternoon hours.


TUESDAY: Now, per model guidance, could see a lull in activity...however, this would be in departure from the previous model runs so will handle tomorrow's weather in a later post. From best I can tell, continued unstable mid-level lapse rates (with cold air aloft) is keeping the convection going as minor ripples in the west to east flow flow cross the state, the timing of which is very difficult to ascertain. But the area that seems most likely to continue to be impacted is South Central/North Central Florida, not to knock of far north Florida as well. In fact, about the only area that appears immune to this activity will be far South Florida and the Keys.


WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Again, because the models are suffering from feedback from the  morning MCS...the daily basis forecast is difficult until the main 500mb trough moves east of the state, which appears will not be until sometime Friday. At time, the Storm Prediction Center is already watching Day 4, or Thursday going into Friday for a more significant severe weather outbreak which totally jives with the evening GFS run. This would be from April Fool's Eve (all day) into the morning of April Fool's Day. To be in a Day 4 outlook in our part of the country is unusual, so take that piece of information with caution. This could be a 'very big deal' later in the week.


Outside of the rain chances..temperatures will run about normal..perhaps a little below during the afternoons and warmer than normal overnight due to cloud cover. Again, though, the NAM has Central and South Florida warming to near or above average on Tuesday. Stay tuned to local nowcasts...and  especially to developments heading toward Thursday. Before then, it will remain unsettled from time to time, with periods of completely benign weather...perhaps running for a good 18 hours in any one location before the next rain chance approaches. 


In summary, don't believe everything you hear regarding future days until all is said and done. Expecting compounded model discrepancies from reality as events unfold on a daily basis.

Spring Showers/Storms (Some Quite Strong) Possible Late Today - Friday

Image acquired from the NWS Melbourne, Fl. website (Impact Weather). I've added in the red circled area to address rainfall chances/a storm or two to be addressed in the text below under "Today/Tonight"

TODAY: Pleasantly warm to 'hot' this afternoon with a SW wind of 10-20mph this afternoon. As we can see from the graphic image above from the NWS MLB web-link (Impact Weather), they are thinking the same concerning the warmth. Additionally, model guidance does show some subsidence this afternoon conducive for compressional heating. On a side note, The Weather Channel is showing Orlando to reach 96F today. This warmth will assuredly send spring breakers and non alike to the beach today, so watch those rip currents if venturing in the water.

LATE TODAY/OVERNIGHT: Chance of rain or a storm can be thrown in beginning late this afternoon for the east side of North Central  north of SR520.  The NAM model is showing a thunderstorm for the North Half of Brevard County between 3-5pm, but is probably jumping the gun.  There is a slug of energy as shown in the image above (circled area in red) over the GOM, moving east and toward the peninsula. But do not believe it will arrive until late this evening toward midnight, so wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning and/or hear thunder during the overnight from Cocoa Beach/Melbourne  to just north of Daytona, Rain chances then cover more real estate toward morning...(but read on in the following paragraph for additional thoughts).

MONDAY: First off, The Weather Channel is showing 80% chance of rain/storms, some severe, on Monday.  This is in line with my thinking on Friday, but I don't see it quite that vigorous as of 10AM this Sunday morning. The moisture will be here for rains, but feel  instability might be minimized due to antecedent cloud coverage early in the day due to the overnight rainfall potential (precluding greater thermal instability). However, should Monday morning break at only partly cloudy and remain so, Monday afternoon cold pan out as forecast by The Weather Channel "experts'.

The other thing to consider is that TWCs 'severe' might be referring to overnight tonight going into Monday morning (regarding the system mentioned in the preceding paragraph).  Rain chances decrease significantly south of Martin County, but not entirely so. In other words, heightened awareness should be made by Central Florida readers later today per your favorite local media outlet(s). Could be a bit crazy tonight (Sunday night to very early Monday morning)  across North Central/Central Florida. Not expecting a tornado threat, but if these storms develop as some guidance indicates for cold temperatures aloft, the primary threat would be minimally sized severe category hail (up to 1").

TUESDAY/BEYOND: Frontal boundary on Monday is forecast to sink to Central Brevard County, perhaps North Brevard, before washing out. This is a bit different from Friday's outlook, which took the front well down to the South. Either way though, by Tuesday afternoon a new boundary reappears across Far North Central Florida by mid-late afternoon which was the case previously either way. Otherwise, things aloft change very little. By late afternoon/early evening storm re-develop is forecast from Central and Southeast Florida.  Expect that any storm 'could' be strong, with small non-severe sized hail.  However, this is at least one day heading toward the weekend where the atmosphere will need to "Lock-n-ReLoad". This time frame will be noticeably quite compared to any active weather that might occur previously, and before we're ready to shoot another round of ammo.

Note: Even beyond Monday the forecast becomes increasingly convoluted due to model discrepancies, so will not divulge into intricate details since they will change. Either way though, and has been mentioned for a few posts now, the pattern remains unsettled through at least Friday (this might be extended).  However, they are coming to better agreement that "Something More Wicked This Way Comes" going into late week (late Wednesday through late Friday time frame).

As of this morning, the worst case scenario mentioned in my previous post would be for a late Friday afternoon/evening (April Fool's Day) storm system composed of some sort of a QLCS convective system remains in the pickins. This has been shown to occur on the synoptic scale for nearly a week now. The timing is narrowing down to a time-frame now, but exactly how things will manifest as well as the timing will remain aloof probably up until a good 24 hours before the actual event.  And of course, these events almost never unfold exactly as one expects them too. But for now, heads up heading toward Thursday and be 'weather aware".  Before that time, much needed rains over the driest spots in Florida is anticipated.  Don't think anyone will be rain free by Saturday morning.  Heavy totals are expected right across Central Florida Thursday into Friday, with other big numbers (not as big) for the now drought stricken southern portion of the state.