Isolated Strong/ Pulse Severe Storms Possible in Parts of Florida Today

STRONG/SEVERE thunderstorms possible over part of the Panhandle/North Florida. Chaotic pulse strong/severe storms possible South Florida. Most of  Dead Central Inactive until early evening.

SYNOPSIS: Not  really a whole lot different today for Central and South Florida from yesterday. High pressure  is centered  over the Gulf generally as noted in this image.  A weak mid-level ridge axis containing relatively warmer upper level air stretches across Central Florida this morning and will persist through the majority of the day. Along this axis also exists the driest moisture throughout the atmosphere. Therefore, little to no shower activity worth noting is expected across the Beachline zone until at least after 6pm.


North Florida:  is closest to a diffuse surface boundary where moisture is pooling. There may be even more moisture gathering along that boundary than  over South Florida. The atmosphere over North Florida is forecast to become moderately to very unstable by early afternoon under very hot temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs. Storms that can go up roughly along I-10 from JAX toward Tallahassee, potentially initiating along the West Coast/Gulf Coast sea-breezes will strengthen from west to east, possibly reaching as far south as Northern or Central Volusia Counties by later in the afternoon. Other storms could roll into the Western Panhandle region out of SE Alabama and.or form along the Gulf Coast Sea-breeze.

South Florida: Like yesterday, mid-level winds are weak once again, but there already appears to be a weak cyclonic circulation centered west of Miami in western Dade/Broward Counties. South Florida will be in its own 'little world' today out of any synoptic scale bounds, yet the mesoscale environment in this area does look interesting from a meteorological perspective.


The  convectively inclined air mass in this location, like yesterday, is almost already moderately unstable even at only mid-morning; only a bit more destabilization is likely.  With near zero convective inhibition in place, I'd expect activity to develop (again like yesterday) early to mid-afternoon as West Coast/East Coast/and Lake Breezes begin to migrate toward each other. 


Believe that these storms (under the assumptions that a few will forms) will create their own boundaries to propagate along since the overall steering currents remain relatively weak (other than the weaker showers); but with stronger upper level winds, these storms should be able to evacuate from their tops with collapsing on themselves as the propogate. This makes overall storm motion nearly impossible to negotiate; however, some storms should be able to reach the A1A-I-95 corridors in Dade/Broward/and Southern Palm Beach County (at least). Outflow boundaries could initiate storms further north with time in domino fashion toward Martin County, perhaps approaching Vero Beach very close to the coast late afternoon.


Central Florida: Here is where the least moist, most stable, and warmest air aloft resides. All factors totally non-condusive for thunderstorms or even rain-shower development. Therefore, my guess this morning is that Central Florida will see little in rain today until at least after 6pm AFTER peak heating. And it will be pretty hot today in this area with highs in many locations reaching the mid-90Fs inland (perhaps some reaching around 97F near Orlando and suburbia as well as inland of the Tampa region. East Coasters along US1 to A1A might be the only ones to feel a sea breeze in this area today by early afternoon. Perhaps sooner on the barrier islands.  Any showers/storms to form in this area will have to rely on either 
1) Moisture closing in from the north and south after 4-5pm as the afternoon heat cools and dew-points rise (dew point depressions lower); or
2) Showers/storms (more likely) roll out of the northern sector into the most favorable early evening atmosphere from mostly the spine of the state and east.  There has been some indications that a particularly strong storm could form under this scenario from near Sanford toward the Mims area after 7pm which might brush the northern KSC area heading toward dark.  Chances are, if this does occur it will be later than models indicate, so wouldn't be surprised to see that not unlike yesterday...any showers to reach or outright form east of Orlando will not do so until after 8pm.


TUESDAY: Not much change in previous thinking. Interestingly, the inverse pattern from today is being depicted, with the most unstable atmosphere to reside along the Beach-line area into Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties on the East Coast.  There could be a strong storms near the coast on Tuesday by mid-afternoon to early evening somewhere within this area. Otherwise, showers could reside closer to the East Coast in South Florida once again.


WEDNESDAY: Early indications are portraying scattered thundershowers up and down the spine of the state on Wednesday, some quite strong with both immediate coasts laying low on the rain chances under chaotic mid-level winds.

Changing of the Guard Today As Pattern Transitions/Some Strong Storms Possible Late

Showers and thunderstorms (some  isolated strong storms conditionally possible late as noted below). 

TODAY: As the title of today's post implies and as noted yesterday, we will have a changing of the 'guard' today in the wind surface and upper level wind fields as the nuisance/non-eventful filled pattern which harbored a high false alert rate for rain potential has moved on.  However, there still remains the upper level low which is forecast to move over the north half of the state today and exit off the NE Coast by early evening.


CON in forecasting today:  Weak wind fields and warmer air in the mid-levels, adding to indecisiveness. Change in the pattern. Affect of potential subsidence/timing of unfavorable jet stream level winds until late today. Will they move on in time? Additionally, at this hour about the most stable (non-convection conducive) area is in and near that highlight for strong storms later today (East Central)...EEK.


FORECAST: Expecting 'relatively' strong sea breeze along the East Coast after 4pm. Due to prevailing upper level winds from the WNW-NNW (albeit light), the west coast sea breeze would theoretically be the dominant, most evasive boundary to push east of I-75 and toward the Orlando area ( the spine of the state)  by 5pm. Convergence along this boundary combined with PERHAPS a magnified east coast sea breeze wind surge could induce stronger storms East Central after 5pm.  


Believe ' near collisions' will start out further north and work south with time toward the early evening..as well as over South Florida.  Moisture is greatest this morning over South Florida; however, that could be rationalized as being because that area has been under cloud cover until mid-morning...so this might be misleading to this forecaster.


It must be noted the atmosphere on the generalized synoptic scale this morning probably will not resemble that which will exist later today due to the pattern change, making this forecast a bit more difficult than usual.  Additionally, although there is some moderate instability in place, most of the afternoon convection (rain) will be induced by near sea breeze and lake breeze collisions.  If some of the latest guidance I've seen this morning is remotely close, then vertical velocities (upward motion) along the strongest boundary collision will occur west of I-95 over  western Volusia, Seminole,  Orange, and Osceola Counties. Thus, the stronger storm chance there as noted above.


Additionally, strong storms could form earlier (due to earlier collisions) over South Florida. A Lake Breeze could be an additional factor here, although I'm a bit more skeptical about this area at time. But given that instability is greatest there right now..it cannot be counted out. 


Otherwise, given the above, areas along the East Coast could become cloudy after 6-7pm due to debris clouds/anvil level clouds UNDER THE ASSUMPTION that storms and showers  form as outlined.


Overall \, atmospheric moisture and instability isn't quite up to seasonal norms, but there does appear to be a trigger or two embedded within the mid-upper level flow from the NNW, one of which might have based over Central Alabama earlier in the morning per satellite animation as well as another over Central Georgia. The latter is no longer apparent, presumably because it entered some drying air or it simply was the perfectly wrong time of day for it to manifest in the cloud signature.


WORST CASE SCENARIO: Very strong storms with active lightning west of I-95 and near the turnpike from West Volusia/Seminole/Central-East Orange/Central-East Osceola County during the time noted in the provided self, hand-painted graphic. This would be due to, if it occurs, a secondary 'surge' in the East Coast Sea-breeze combined with a dominant west coast sea breeze late (essentially about 2-3 hours after peak heating). During this time of day, dew point /ambient air temperatures come closer together (humidity increases). In the absence of gradient flow, the east coast sea breeze can take on a more southerly component due to the Coriolis affect which in turn increases low level helicity along the leading edge of, and within, the sea breeze front.


OTHERWISE: Without an East Coast sea-breeze surge...more generic type showers and thunderstorms will be possible of lesser coverage and strength. Either way, it could get cloudy along the east coast communities by early evening unless of course storm initiation falls to materialize as hypothesized to the degree being depicted by model guidance. (one model initiates nothing more than some sprinkles today). 


MONDAY: Although atmospheric moisture will continue to be below seasonable norms, isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility along and west of I-95 Monday, but at time it does not appear coverage on Monday will be as high (nor strength as great) based on guidance.


TUESDAY: Still holding firm for now that some strong to severe storms will be possible over a portion of North Central and North Florida. South Florida might begin to have less of a chance of rain on Tuesday, if only on this day.


WEDNESDAY: Westerly mid-upper level wind component increases just a bit. Some coastal communities from JAX to MIA might actually get some rain or a thunderstorm. Most activity would form late (other than near JAX) and be glued very close toward the east side of the state, possibly only forming along I-95 then moving offshore by late afternoon.


THROUGH THE WEEKEND: So far, the GFS is holding firm to its forecast reasoning of the past 6 days now. That being, a low level ridge axis located near the Florida Straits works north with time toward Central Florida by the weekend. If so, this will favor storms over the interior (under the climatological assumption that there would be at least some minimal atmospheric moisture and a non-capping (air not too warm aloft) environment in place. Could be some days will be much drier than others contingent on 'booster shots'   by disturbances migrating down from the more northern border states.


REFER TO THE NWS FOR LATEST INFORMATION INCLUDING STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS, AS WELL AS NOWCASTS.

Chance of Storms (Possibly Strong) Near the Fires In South Florida Today

Not as complicated as it may look to you...to break things down: 1) Low level circulation exists over/near the Central Bahamas (orange arrow shows east Florida on backside of this circulation; 2) Upper level circulation in the Eastern Gulf up to the jet stream level (blue arrow); 3) Expected sea-breeze fronts shown in blue boundaries late today; 4) showers/thunder possible in green and lavender. Image extracted from the Storm Prediction Center's mesoscale analysis page via http;//www.spc.noaa.gov  with the colored annotations by self

CURRENT: Not much change from the past two for East Central Florida so not much need to elaborate there. There are two 'kind of' interesting features here mid-morning 1) convergent cloud line over far North Brevard over northern Cape Canaveral to KSC has moved little since 8AM. 2) Convergent bands emanating from the back side of the surface low over the Bahamas bringing showers near the coast of Ft. Pierce and vicinity but not quite making it ashore.  Both features will likely dissipate with onset of the East Coast sea-breeze which is a little slow in getting started today due to the disruption on the normal diurnal low level wind cycles in the presence of the surface low as well as the upper level one in the Eastern Gulf.  Mid-level flow flow is weak across the state and a bit dry as well between the low and upper level features. Mid-level moisture is sorely lacking, so not expecting any showers over the land area today here.


"HSD" FORECAST PERCEPTION TODAY: The highlight for the day is hopeful thinking that showers and thunderstorms will form very close to the  persistent fires in Western Miami-Dade area. Smoke had moved in toward the metro area this morning on NW winds which had been directed toward the WSW-W the previous two days.  Under the assumption that thunder can form over  the far South today, this would potentially help quench the thirsty vegetation, although there is also a threat of lightning. Mid-level moisture and winds are lacking, so any storm that can develop in this area could be either an efficient lightning producer or a wind gust maker near the storms. This would be the CON side regarding the fires. That being, should a storm form near the fires, send out dry lightning and be accompanied by strong wind gusts, this would add fuel to the fires rather than abort them.


The other area of interest for showers will be toward interior west and northwest Florida as indicated by the showers (green) color. Late evening low level wind convergence near I-75 could result in some very late afternoon thunder in that area, although that  chance becomes even more questionable.


TOMORROW: Essentially all low pressure features will be moving toward the NNE-NE over the next 24-48 hours, thus Sunday will begin an overhaul (transition) of the atmosphere in the winds fields.  There does appear that there will be a better chance of sea breeze convergence (collision) over South Central and South Florida over the interior. Light mid-level winds and timing (late) of this collision will likely keep the coasts dry on both sides of the state, but there is a chance of isolated thunder over the interior areas to west of I-95 and South Florida once again.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: A stationary front over the country's mid-section and into the NE states (combined with a geographic-type trough down the spine of the Appalachian Chain) will be forced south to southeastward into Central Georgia. By this time, the low currently over the Bahamas will be FAR removed from the picture and possibly merge with the synoptic scale front off the coast of the NE states with time. Overall atmospheric moisture levels will be sufficient for interior thunder again, but mainly closer to the front/trough over North Florida. Finer details, given the mounting uncertainty with time going into this time frame will need to be re-evaluated as this time frame approaches. 


It is interesting though (to this writer), that Tuesday could end up being a day of rather strong thunderstorms over East Central Florida.  Both the NAM and GFS indicate the surface front will be located near Southern Georgia with NNW-NW flow aloft, and from the WNW in the mid-levels ( with a sea breeze).  Mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes/maxims), are forecast to be embedded within this flow and to enter Central and North Florida during the early - mid afternoon hours.  The net affect would be isolated but strong storms over East Central Florida from the mid-late afternoon reaching the coast by early evening. Worth monitoring. Meanwhile, South Florida might remain once again dry during this time frame.


BEYOND TUESDAY: GFS has shifted gears into over-drive (unfortunately) and wants to bring the front completely through the state by Wednesday, bringing a return to 'east to west' low level flow across the state. This is forecast, per this sudden change, to last until at least early NEXT weekend before a pattern more favorable for seasonable afternoon/evenings showers and thunder can again be introduced into the forecast as it previously had shown to be continuous from Tuesday and points on in previous model runs. I believe this change in the extended is due to the strength o fa system as it gains momentum over the Central Plains states today and tomorrow, which looks to be greater than previously supposed. Not sure I'm buying into the trend just yet.


TROPICS: No tropically inclined features worth note are analyzed this morning. Will be watching the Bay of Campeche area though heading into late next week (personally).


As is noted at the top of the web page for these forecasts, 'all discussions and forecasts are of my own interpretation/extrapolation/best guesses. Please refer to official NWS forecasts".  To add, though, I often read each and every forecast discussion from the offices in Florida as well as others in the Deep South as well as the Plains states to gain a broad perspective of the overall large scale picture. It is interesting to see what others are able to see that I may miss; on the other hand, it sometimes (but rarely) works the other way around.

Lightning Storms Toward the Western Interior/West Coast Today

Color coded regions of possible showers and thunderstorms, with increasing chances in both categories from the interior and toward the west coast of the state. South Florida region less certain due to persistent high cloudiness.

CURRENT & SYNOPSIS/MODEL(S) REVIEW: Broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean and into the Gulf well analyzed this morning by model 'guidance'. Jet stream level winds around the base of the upper level area of low pressure across portions of South and South Central Florida combined with ample upper level moisture is resulting in high clouds over the region. Slow moistening of the atmosphere at all levels from south to north in the next few days. Nearly all the models are in consensus that a surface/mid-level low will form SE of Florida which will move northward east of the state.  The majority of the models are now in agreement with the GFS (which has been favored in these posts for several days), which would place this low pressure circulation well east of the state, however, there is still some debate. Either way though, the only impact if it  were to be closer to the Florida East Coast will be stronger east to northeast  winds for a 12-24 hour period and some near to onshore showers which, as of late this morning,  would occur on Saturday just about anytime. This will not be of fully ( or nearly 'any') tropical nature.


TODAY: East coast sea-breeze getting a mid-morning start in the easterly gradient flow. Line of some moderately towering cumulus clouds offshore the Cape area initiated some very light showers and a funnel cloud offshore the Cape which approached shore (whether  this funnel cloud touched water remains UNK (unknown). Otherwise, due to the lighter gradient flow toward the west side of the state, a west coast sea-breeze is expected to be able to form today, which could press as far east as the Western Interior.  Mid-Late afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form where  the West Coast sea-breeze and easterly gradient flow enhanced by the east coast sea breeze converge, mainly in the red area, although the region as far south as Naples could hear thunder as well based on latest visible satellite trends which show that  cirrus clouds are thinning.  Some storms could be briefly 'pulse strong' (as almost any thunderstorm can) due to some dry air entrainment  in the mid-levels. Storms would be strongest in the Tampa Bay area due to the  squirrely/swirly nature of the Bay Wind convergences  late this afternoon.


LATE AFTERNOON/MID-EVENING: Storms should (could) form along the West side of the state as noted above. Elsewhere, East Coastal showers could move onshore from South Volusia toward Ft Pierce by early evening, although this looks questionably admitted;  the signs are there with forecast models indicating  atmospheric instability to increase a bit during the day into the early evening  in the  tropical like air mass moving northward throughout the day today. Therefore, have thrown in some 'green' to the east central coast for early afternoon showers west of I-95 which will move west into the mid-late afternoon as well as for onshore moving showers at the coast after 5 or 6pm (the latter just to cover the bases).


FRIDAY: A lot depends on what and where finally develops regarding a low pressure area in the SW Atlantic near Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. For now, though, will rely on the previous post that this entity will be too far offshore to directly impact the state. Cannot discount the chance of east coast showers though with any vorticity ('energy') lobe rotating around the backside of the low to pass over or near the coast as well as with convergence along the developing east coast sea breeze as it moves onshore and over the inland lagoons.


BEYOND: Guidance portrayed by the NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFS  (as well as two others not normally referred to in these posts) are all showing that a frontal boundary now over Eastern PA/NY into the upper Midwest will move east the next few days and merge with a trough running down the spine of the Appalachians (storms in Western North Carolina the next few days as a result).  This boundary is forecast to be forced east and south with time...and will become entrenched over Central or Southern Georgia sometime Saturday or Sunday.  Convergence along this boundary will increase thunderstorm chances over North Florida/Panhandle regions.  


Additionally, a surface ridge of high pressure following northward passage of the low pressure disturbance forecast to pass east of Florida (as noted above) will work north (aligned west to east) and be situated either along the Florida Straits or South Florida.  This will place almost all of the state in a west to east steering flow, with the east coast sea-breeze being suppressed from reaching any further west than the spine of the state and even more toward the east side with time as it forms solely based on diurnal heating of the 'landmass heating' mechanism.  


With the increased  atmospheric moisture by this time now in place from previous days, a delayed morning east coast sea breeze  could make late morning to noon time temperatures warmer than past days along the east coast. With little in Convective Inhibition (CIN), ample moisture, and little capping warm air aloft in place...mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms should have no problem being initiated which will move eastward and offshore by early evening if not sooner in the day.  This general pattern is expected to begin either on Sunday or Monday...timing of which can be refined / ascertained with greater confidence in the next two/three days.


The future forecast beyond NEXT Friday becomes less certain, with the GFS pressing the front entirely through the state with easterly flow (like that of recent days) resuming.  Generously, this model leaves that portion of the  forecast set up to be of relatively short duration by once again creating a very summer-like ridge of high pressure across South Central Florida and again placing favorable thunderstorm chances back into the forecast for mostly northern portions of South Central Florida and all of North Florida well out in time. Meaning, early day showers/thunder along the west coast and mid-afternoon to early evening showers/thunder Central to East side.


TROPICS: No tropical entities at time appear to be of an immediate or mid-range threat.

Anniversary of Hurricane Alma (1966) As It Brushed Key West Today

Track of Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) Alma

***From Wikipedia:

In early June, a trough in the westerlies extended from the southeastern United States towards Nicaragua. A surface circulation formed near Cabo Gracias a Dios, also known as Cape Gracias, on June 3, and drifted southwestward over land. The circulation organized into Tropical Depression One early on June 4 over theHonduras/Nicaragua border, where it turned to a north drift, dropping heavy rain across the countries.

Upon reaching the Caribbean Sea on June 5, the depression was able to strengthen, with warm water temperatures, good outflow, and deep convection. When the only inhibiting factor, land, was removed, the depression rapidly intensified, becoming Tropical Storm Alma on the 6th and reaching hurricane status that night. Initially a slow mover, Alma accelerated to the northeast, where it reached winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) before hitting the Isle of Youth on the 8th.

Just six hours after crossing the Isle of Youth, Alma hit western Cuba. Because it crossed at one of the narrowest points of the island, the hurricane didn't weaken at all. On the contrary, upon reaching the Gulf of Mexico, Alma reached major hurricane status with peak winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) late on June 8. It passed between the Dry Tortugas and Key West, Florida at that intensity, and began a north-northwest motion in response to an upper level cyclone developing over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.

After crossing the Florida west coast, Alma weakened quickly, and hit Apalachee Bay on June 9 as a 90 mph (140 km/h) hurricane. The storm turned to the northeast, where it weakened to a 45 mph (72 km/h) tropical storm while crossing Georgia. On June 11 Alma emerged into the Atlantic near Savannah, Georgia, and continued its northeast movement. While paralleling the Carolina coastline over the Gulf Stream, Alma briefly restrengthened into a hurricane on the night of the 11th. This intensification trend ended when cold waters and dry air approached the system, causing Alma to lose its tropical characteristics on June 13 while east of the Delmarva Peninsula. As an extratropical storm, Alma lasted another day before dissipating near Cape Cod.

One week before its hurricane preparations for the season, Alma gave the Kennedy Space Center a chance to go through the situation under the threat of a real storm. A mock-up of a Saturn V rocket was rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building on June 8, within 12 hours in the face of 60 mph (97 km/h) wind gusts, within the anticipated time for such a move. Two other rockets were also removed from their pads.

===========================================================================

Interesting similarity: It is interesting with the current Invest which is now unlikely to develop anytime soon (if ever), that this Hurricane formed in a similar location as the area of investigation now in the Caribbean. However, the current pattern is not all that unusual for this time of year, so this is where the comparisons will stop at this point..other than to show an image of where the other storms of 1966 occurred.

Named storms of 1966. We can see the "Alma Track' going into the North Florida

LOCAL "HSD"** FORECAST: Not much change in thinking for the next several days. We'll quickly jump to a tropical discussion since that is what local weather COULD be all about in the next few days. But mostly because local news channel outlets might be referring to the tropics on the news tonight, if not already today.

TROPICS:  That being said (above), it is hard to know just what to think. The ECMWF/NAM/and NOGAPS want to bring a surface low NOT directly related to the surface circulation now (and for several days) over the SW Caribbean northward which develops near the Cuban North Coast toward the South Central Bahamas as it develops in the next 36 hours.  Although I'm having a hard time finding evidence of the supposed yet to be entity at this time, it is not entirely out of the question.  This entity forecast by the models  though, does seem a bit 'fishy' given that it would be forming on the subsident (sinking air) side of the jet stream level winds currently in place in this same region (the same winds responsible from preventing further tropical developing/strengthening of the area of investigation down there now).  With that, whatever would happen to form down there as portrayed by these models would not be entirely tropical in nature, but rather start right off as some sort of pseudo-hybrid (in my opinion only).  Given that the area of low pressure formation is not even being considered by the Hurricane Center last I looked which was about 20 minutes ago, that idea of anything to form being non-fully tropical (at least)  seems to be on the right track.  These models bring a surface low northward either on of just off the Florida east coast during the course of the next 48-96 hours.

The GFS model has a similar idea (and seems more reasonable)...with forming a circulation over or near far Eastern Cuba and shifting it NE-ENE ward well east of the state entirely with no effect whatsoever.

At this time, most official outlets are holding back on advertising higher rain chances with the uncertainties being as great as they are right now.  However, no matter which evolution (if either) occurs, Central and North Florida would feel little impact other than a brief increase in a chance of rain showers sometime Friday for the most part.

Otherwise, the area in the Caribbean could very well remain unsettled for quite some time until something more organized can develop there either way.

OTHERWISE:

CURRENT: Convergent band of rain showers that formed overnight into coastal St. Lucie county and westward is shifting south this afternoon and is now a part of a line of showers being generated off the Eastern most Bahama Islands and into or near the West Palm Beach area.  Another convergent band of only clouds has lined up over North and Central Brevard and inland a bit, extending east well into the Atlantic. High clouds are spreading across far South Florida which could work their way into Central Florida by sunset, which might also put the kibosh on the showers further south due to their stabilizing influence.

TONIGHT: There is a chance of an overnight rain shower or two along Coastal Brevard and Indian River Counties after 2-3AM. No impact other than to hopefully get the grass watered if it does occur. Latest short term model guidance is showing a 500mb vorticity lobe to rotate Northeastward from SW Florida overnight, which would be the initiating factor for these showers. High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) guidance shows a similar scenario, but mainly only over South Florida...could at least some some increased cloud coverage at a minimum.

TOMORROW: Continued easterly fetch with a slight overall increased in atmospheric moisture as far north as the Beachline region. Thus, rain and possibly inland thunderstorms are not totally out of the question tomorrow of isolated nature. Looking forward to seeing if any new surprises are in store by the morning hours. Latest NEW RUC guidance is showing some heavier rain showers near the east coast by early afternoon, but not buying into it at this time.

BEYOND: Reference the tropical portion of this post.  Other than what is stated above in those preceding paragraphs, we can add that if a low pressure system does form and moves well east of the state, rain chances will go down for all but the west side of the state.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to insist on the beginning of afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, favoring the east side of the state beginning around Wednesday. Previous runs have reflected thia time frame (somewhere between Wednesday and Saturday) for this activity to commence for nearly 5 days now. Do not know if there is some climatological basis for its forecast in the extended time-frame.  What it does show, is  a broad and deeper upper level trough becomes established over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico to near and/or over Florida for at least 6 days after next Wednesday. This would place Florida in a west to the east steering flow, with a few days possibly consisting of strong thunderstorms due to cold air aloft (a part of the upper level trough)...and divergent jet stream level winds (also associated with this 'troughiness" in the upper level wind flow. Time will tell. Could use the rain.

**HSD - High Speed Dirt

Chance of Thunder in North Florida/Panhandle, Small Chance Portions of North Central

Shown: Mock radar composite reflectivity (what radar would look like) at 9:15AM this morning. The area off the Florida East Coast is relatively accurate. This area is moving slowly toward the wwst to WSW this morning, whereas the areas of 'showers' depicted elsewhere do not exist. Details in text below.

TODAY: High pressure in the mid-upper levels remains over the Deep South and Florida. Showers (with some lightning per lightning imagery) seems to be related to a weak mid-level disturbance embedded around the main clockwise circulation around the periphery of these high pressure 'centers', per se.


Otherwise, the clockwise circulation is bringing full easterly flow across Peninsular Florida, but it is weaker over North Florida closer to the center of the high pressure areas.  With this factor considered, for today it currently seems feasible to believe that a Gulf Coast Sea Breeze will be able to establish over the Panhandle and a portion of far North Central Florida (west of Gainesville) where thunderstorms will be most apt to be able to develop. This same region is also forecast by all guidance to have the most unstable air conducive for storm development. It does not appear that a west coast sea breeze will be able to develop further south, or if so, it would be so close to the coast in a more stable air mass (namely south of Brooksville) that thunder or even showers would be able to develop there as a result of a sea breeze/Lake Breeze collsion.


Meanwhile (and additionally), the best low-mid level moisture going into mid-afternoon is forecast to exist outside of the most unstable air to the north...which does not really make sense considering that moist air is more buoyant.   However, taking the forecast moisture fields into account, as well as having viewed visible satellite imagery the past two hours, it would not be entirely infeasible to consider that rain showers could reach the Florida North Central Coastal communities by mid-afternoon toward Flagler County and eventually southward with time toward far North Brevard county.  The Flagler option seems most plausible at this time; further south, it  will be a race with time considering that Convective Inhibition is forecast to expand northward from South Florida toward the Cape area by 7pm.  With those factors in mind, we cannot entirely discount the chance that some of those offshore showers might impede upon the coast by early-mid afternoon as far south as Volusia County as thunder or even North Brevard as showers later today.  


Further south in Southern Volusia/North Brevard, not so sure the activity will even be 'surface based', especially since model guidance indicates the activity is associated with a mid-level trough around 700mb (10,000 ft) rather than a surface trough. Again, with that factor in mind, the Cape area north of the 520 Cswy might see a few drops of rain before the sun has set late today (North Brevard).  


Keep in mind, any minor deviation in the ebb and flow during the day today could either:


 A) totally preclude rain chances at all along the east coast. This would be due to the fact that the easterly gradient flow combined with the east coast sea breeze (which is forecast to pick up to 15-22mph this afternoon) would squelch the activity currently offshore as it approaches the coast due to subsiding (sinking) air behind the sea breeze, leaving it as only elevated 'junk' clouds; or, 


 B) increase the thunder chance further south toward the 520 CSWY; or


 C) per model guidance on average  as currently portrayed by some models, bring a certain chance of at least rain with a few rumbles into Flagler and Volusia Counties with measurable rain by 3-4pm.


Elsewhere, no rain is expected to occur over South Central or South Florida today.


BEYOND: Little change in the mid-long range models, as well as with the feisty NAM. Again, the NAM is forecasting an inverted trough, and even a bit of a close low-mid level area of low pressure to press northward during the next 42-84 hours into Florida. The net effect is a band of precipitation moving northward with time from South Florida and into Central Florida before the weekend. Again, I'm discarding it; but watching with care. The ECMWF (European Model)...seems to indicate a similar scenario but the information I have over the internet without using a 'pay service' does not provide the finer details. 


Meanwhile, the GFS holds firm to its previous idea from 3 days ago, with only minor deviations in timing and pressure system locations. That being, once the jet stream level winds which are currently suppressing tropical development in the SW Caribbean shift east of Florida, this permits either an inverted trough or a  weak low pressure center to move into the Eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) west of the peninsula going into early next week.  This would increase the moisture levels over all of the state and completely change the low-mid-upper level wind fields across the state, favoring the east side for diurnal afternoon rain/thunderstorm chances in only a slight/moderate unstable atmospheric thermal profile. In other words, late week through next week are still up for grabs... but I'm tending to favor the GFS considering how consistent it has been...and hoping for the needed rainfall over South Florida optimistically (and admittedly, wishfully).

High Clouds Plague the Beachline Today, Rain/Thunder Chances N. Florida

Image indicates a low pressure trough at the jet stream level over the Gulf. This little devil is pulling moisture at the jet stream level northward from the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean and then spilling it eastward across Central Florida as can be seen above where the blue colors are shown. Based on animation of this image type, it appears these clouds will persist across the immediate Central Florida area through the day. The area shown in green across N. Florid is where it is most likely to receive rain (thunderstorms) today, potentially strong near the 'Gator' toward the 'Seminole' Territory. 

TODAY: Weak surface trough of low pressure with embedded surface bubble lows exists across the Gulf Coast early this Monday afternoon. When connecting the dots of lows....they make up a weak frontal boundary extending out into the Atlantic generally east of Jacksonville west toward SE Texas. This 'boundary' will work south after sunset.  Meanwhile, as can be seen above, high clouds are forming well aloft due to moisture being drawn from the Caribbean at the jet stream level, then rooster tailing eastward across the Central Peninsula. It is completely overcast directly under this moisture plume, of only high clouds. It is also a bit hazy west of the immediate east coast ahead of the east coast sea breeze of little/no consequence underneath warm air aloft.

Black lines depict low pressure pressure troughs. Not shown is the weak, bubble lows from off shore the  NE Florida Coast and west toward SE Texas; 'dot-connect' and they create a weak frontal trough (on paper). Best chance of showers, as shown in the previous image as well as above, is located over North Central Florida toward Tallahassee where the boundaries meet, and where instability is greatest due to moisture near these boundaries and less high cloud coverage to start with.

TUESDAY; The weak boundary and jet stream level winds could well adjust further south by Tuesday which would place more of the Southern Portion of the state under the high clouds. We'll have to just await our turn after sunrise tomorrow to see if this is what occurs.  Otherwise, temperatures running status quo morning, noon, and night with a more prevalent easterly flow across all of the state tomorrow as the surface boundary washes out. Best chance of thunderstorms will be near the west coast, although I'm not totally prepared to rule out some pre-dawn to mid-morning east coast showers over portions of Central Florida before the boundary slides to South Florida and washes out by mid-afternoon at the latest. Afternoon showers and some thunder area possible over South Florida tomorrow as well, mainly well west of I-95.


WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Already, big discrepancies between the two main player models (NAM and GFS) has emerged; although, I was totally not expecting to see what I'm seeing last I peeked. Believe the NAM, which is crying out for big rains and possibly 'twisting storms' by Thursday over portions of South and Central Florida has had too much "Energy-X" beverage this morning, and therefore will ride with the GFS which has been consistent. That given...continued easterly low and mid-level wind flow across the peninsula with increasing atmospheric moisture at all levels (not just the high  and low levels) moving into Thursday, with limited to zero rain chances. Per this guidance, the chances of rain increases though.


SATURDAY/BEYOND: Guidance based on the GFS has been bringing a remnant low from the Caribbean northward into the Easstern Gulf as a bit of a north/south aligned inverted trough going into the weekend which eventually merges with a continental cold frontal system from the NW later next week.  The merger of the two brings a generous moisture surge across the "Drought-Thirsty State". Initially, as soon as possibly late Thursday into  Friday over South Florida and eventually to more and more of the state with time. 


Now, whether this moisture will manifest as actual rain or simply totally overcast skies is yet to be determined; although all guidance I've seen is painting precipitation on the "paint by numbers' grid of blue, green, and yellow (in other words, more than enough rain to make puddles).  Additionally, under the assumption that if this is rain, will it be thunderstorms or just rain? Probably just rain. However, with time...as the inverted trough associated with the Caribbean System washes out and the supposed frontal boundary eventually makes leeway toward the state, conditions would become more favorable for generic thunderstorms with time. Temperatures aloft are not forecast to be cold enough, nor are winds aloft forecast to be strong enough...for any severe weather.


IN FOLDING AND AS READS ON THE BLOG PAGE AT ALL TIMES: All statements/assumptions are of the authors own. Please consult the NWS or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for official local and tropical weather forecasts/outlooks. Given the unpredictability of the weather in coming days, large changes in the forecast over a 24 hour period in the next 2-6 days can be expected  both within these writings as well as over broadcast news channels across the state.

Tropical Entity in the SW Caribbean/High Pressure Reduce Rain Chances

Salt River Canyon, Arizona. Author drove through this region on Friday taking in the sites, after contending with very smoky conditions the day before brought about by a large 50K acre fire in Southern Arizona

TODAY/SUNDAY: Not much change with on-shore flow and little to none in sea breeze convergence boundaries to account for any chances of thunderstorms over the peninsula. A small chance exists along I-10 in the Panhandle.


MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME: A weak low pressure area is still being forecast by the GFS model last night to form off the Carolina's as surface high pressure relaxes. The main net effect will be to delay the east coast sea breeze at least one of these days, resulting in very warm late morning to early afternoon temperatures at the beaches with a slight increase in moisture (humidity).  It appears the best chance of rain still appears will occur over North Central and North Florida. ...There exists a chance (albeit smaller) as far south as the Beachline by early to mid-evening Monday night going into Tuesday.


WEDNESDAY: Better chance for showers and thunder toward the west half of the state as the onshore flow pattern at the low-mid levels resumes control.  


TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure continues in the SW Caribbean. The main threat at this time would be flash flooding in the area around Jamaica.  Models fluctuate vastly on the potential future development of a more organized low pressure system (depression/tropical storm), as well as the eventual forward motion that, should one develop, it would take.  Given the high degree of uncertainty, and the zero threat to Florida for at least 8 days, further elaboration on this area is not necessary at this time.


WEATHER AHEAD: Until the synoptic scale pattern which is maintaining the uncertainty in the tropical weather forecast, so will the pattern over Florida remain a bit uncertain in the extended time frame. Unlike what was considered yesterday regarding the onset of the wet, thunderstorm season...it could be next weekend or the weekend after that (or some time in between), before we see a change in the pattern for sure.


TOO SOON TO THINK ABOUT TROPICAL WEATHER THREATS?: In a few days, a post will be made addressing hurricane preparedness. In this regard, ask yourself: If you live on a barrier island or within a few miles of the coast, what would it take for you to leave the area? Do you leave whenever an evacuation 'mandate' is in place, or stay?  Consider preparations either way, and keep in mind: 1) no electricity for days on end: erstwhile mosquitoes, heat, humidity, closed businesses, no gas, etc...should one stay even if not effected by anything other than inconvenience and discomfort. Do you have a pet? Consider their needs. Gas? Food supplies? A generator for simpler electrical needs? Boarding for windows?  If you leave, where will you go for that matter?!! With important papers/records?  A preparedness kit and a checklist both will greatly lead you and your family into the Tropical Storm Season a bit less ill at ease if nothing else. When an evacuation is in place for your area, the utmost safe assured thing to do is heed the broadcast with your checklist in tow.


When evacuation is mandated, HEAD FOR THE HILLS as these folks did during Hurricane Frances (below):

Higher ground is your safest option

Florida's Typical Thunderstorm Season Could Begin by NEXT Weekend

This Image (per the GFS Model) Indicates that a surface ridge of high pressure could be established across the peninsula firmly by June 11th or 12th. The forecast indicates that from this point on the ridge might hold for a number of days. Long enough to consider this as being the onset of the 'wet season' in some form

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN: The next chance of rain and thunderstorms arrives, per latest guidance on Sunday for a portion of North and North Central Florida Florida Sunday or Monday afternoon from near Daytona Beach and through the interior of North Central Florida...possibly clipping the east coast as far south as the Cape area. This is mainly in prelude to a 'supposed' cool front that is expected to from off the coast of North Carolina. The front will then provide a better chance for showers and thunder across even the Exceptional Drought Stricken portion of Southeast Florida the following day. The exact day(s) will need refinement..but it  does look that this will occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame (perhaps Tuesday).


Any reader of the author's posting will know that this is fun news to arrive home from after being in the Plains for two weeks. South Florida needs some rain in any form!


After this point the remainder of the week for South Florida could be dry, other than perhaps some morning ocean showers.


START OF THUNDERSTORM SEASON ("Wet Season"): Getting within range now on the GFS to NEXT weekend, the GFS is trending for the long awaited ( by some) thunderstorm season that Floridian's have long become familiar with. The pattern currently depicted would favor both coasts from time to time, although implications are to favor the East Side of the state for late afternoon/early evening activity, as well as the west coast earlier in the day.  


TROPICS: No threat of any tropical activity is being portrayed by the GFS at this time within a reasonable time frame worth mention.

Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) - Dubbed Tropical Invest To Impact North Central Today

9:30AM Radar image from WeatherTap shows a mesocscale convective vortex (MCV) approaching North Florida from the ENE. This system generated several days ago over the North Central Plains States and move east and south with time, making full circle area a high pressure system that has been responsible for the persistent on shore flow regime.

TODAY: A vortex, dubbed an Invest from the tropical school of thought, is approaching the North half of the state today. This system crossed, believe it or not, the Chicago area several days ago. Not particularly sure why this was dubbed an Invest (an area of investigation in tropical interests)...


The area highlighted in white can be on the lookout out for lightning storms and rain with potentially strong to marginally severe wind gusts in the strongest of storms.  This area will arrive before peak heating on the east side of the state, so instability will not be of much concern had this arrived in the late afternoon hours instead. There is quite a bit of lightning with this system, that seems now will impact mainly those living along and north of SR 520.

Lightning image, courtesy of Weathertap.com. This area is moving toward
the WSW-W..with the center located roughly directly east of Daytona Beach at the time of this post.

The center of the 'vortex' appears could come very close to making 'landfall' near Cape Canaveral before noon and be clear of the immediate east coast within an hour or two after noon time. 

Upper level winds should spread anvil thunderstorm tops across to the west side of the state, so that it seems unlikely that any further surface heating during the course of the day will be subdued, preventing further thunderstorm strengthening, if not weakening shortly after impacting the east coast. It appears those most likely to be affected will be the St. Augustine area south toward Cocoa Beach, with rainfall as far south as Sebastian Inlet along the east coast between 10:30am and 1pm while spreading westward with time.

Love Bugs Sends Author Far Away Due to Allergies

Due to on-going pesky love bugs, the author will be fleeing to somewhere in the blue area for a while. This weather forecast blog for North Central through South Central Florida will return in June once this portion of the season has cleared the area and humans are once again free to roam the region.

Over 400,000Spectators Disappointed, Severe Weather Forecasters Relieved

WEATHER PATTERN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT INDICATED TOMORROW. TWO IMPULSES NOTED BY ARROWS.
TWO DISTURBANCES (the "Ls" TO MOVE ESE THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST, THEN OUT OF THE PICTURE ENTIRELY BY FRIDAY

TODAY: Why the Title today? The Launch of the second to last Space Shuttle went today with out a hitch, but it could have been MUCH worse...and not have gone at all. In fact the Shuttle could have been damaged irreparably had weather conditions been a bit different between today and tomorrow.  ***See below for more.


 Instead though, due to how the systems through the atmosphere were aligned, they brought on another disaster of very large societal ramifications rather than meteorological. Folks from far and wide, from across the globe who spent vast amounts of money/time/resources just to be there to watch...had hopes dashed 5-10 seconds after lift off. Only those right within the secured area got a good view..the percentage of which is likely 10% of all those who were in the area.
To ADD to the impeccable timing of this "event of disappointing proportions", the clouds had cleared to the crowds delight, only to move back in during the final 3 minutes prior to lift off!! How is that possible?  Crowd control was out en masse too. Lesson learned obviously from the previous launch. 

It is easy to see where the arrow is pointing the contrail produced by the contrail ice crystals (over simplification), but also easier to see is the deck of clouds all around the launch area. In fact, now that I looked closer, you can see the ripples going through the top of the cloud deck indicative of the stronger winds aloft accompanying that patch of moisture!!

How could this  meteorological situation have resulted in severe weather that would damage the Shuttle? Note those two upper level lows. Winds aloft, for this time of year associated with them, are not at all uncommon like those we'd expect to find in January or February. Additionally, upper level disturbances are embedded in this flow that could trigger severe weather. But we are now in May...very very rare situation.


 So where's the storms?  For one, there is not enough moisture for deep convection,  just enough to generate clouds. What ever ample moisture there is for storms is getting stretched to far thin out flat rather than up.  The winds are entirely unidirectional with height..so there is no vertical turning, only horizontal stretching. This adds some lift, but not at the lowest levels.  Instead, the forces combined generates  period of clouds  


There are  no low level boundaries as well, including a mere sea breeze. Only a cold front that moved through near sunset last night..but it too was parallel to the flow, so there was no upward forcing at the lowest levels (aptly termed 'convergence').  Had these winds been associated with a surface front aligned differently with more moisture, this could have ended up being an near epic severe weather outbreak to at least include large, damaging hail (for instance) for this two day period. But as we can see...nothing is happening. 


One thing, we are close to setting record low temperatures across the state in the mornings. Followed by very pleasant a drier afternoons. It is a bit breezy too, but nothing beyond improving kite flying and water related wind sport. Certainly not destructive to build structures.


The first wave of moisture arrived this morning along and ahead of the first surge of stronger winds aloft. This moisture / wind team produced the cloud deck that simultaneously hampered clear sky conditions while dampening the otherwise energized hordes of on-lookers who arrived to Central Florida to view the launch. Even the announcer I heard on the radio while hoping to get some good video was awe inspired, until, that is, I heard her exclaim, " It's is AWESOME..INCREDIBLE...(pause) Oh, it went into the clouds"  ;-(. (a few times).


EARLY THIS EVENING/TUESDAY: The next of disturbed areas will pass across Central Florida near sunset. During that time I'm expecting cloud coverage could again increase. If it were day time it would be more so, and winds would pick up more as well. But it will be perfectly timed to have little impact other than to sustain the winds a bit longer than one would otherwise expect, and bring some more clouds in. This will mostly occur after dark, and won't be noticed. No rain.


WEDNESDAY: The second low will rotate around the first as it lifts north and east. This low will again bring even stronger winds aloft and even more lift. It is also accompanied by a shot of moisture. This one will mostly impact South Florida to the degree that showers could be in their midst at sunrise through early afternoon. Due to timing of this disturbance (early day), and no sea breeze, I do not expect there would be thunderstorms. There is even more moisture associated with this system as well as some accumulating at lower levels, temperatures aloft are expected to warm..so instability will be limited especially considering the time of day (early)


But note: We can't really know what the impacts of this disturbance can be since it has not interacted with any other land mass other than well to the north in much cooler air and under an altogether configuration, perhaps that chance of a quick moving storm should not be entirely discounted. However, the chances of such as extremely slim; not entirely negligible. The concern with storms, or even the expected (as of time today) rain showers, would be wind in and near rain showers...perhaps thunderstorms (as noted). For the most part, by current guidance, thunderstorms almost could not occur at all, but if one little thing were to change..


THURSDAY: Big pattern change as the the passive twin lows lift further north and start to open up. This will open the gate for another system on the West Coast of the U.S. to spread rapidly into the Plains.


At this time, it looks like it will be too much, too fast...And ram into the ridge behind the depart "Team Low". Uniformly directed winds could spark some severe weather here or there initially, but it looks a bit like the biggest concern will be more rains to the already flooded Mississippi River Valley Basin. Just one single drop more is not needed there.  It is forecast to get back logged behind the previous one..which makes perfect sense...unless, it completely punches into and through the ridge ahead of it, at which point all meteorological chaos could ensue. Bears watching, but as of now...the trend seems to be set in stone. Will team 'Tornado Hunt" on The Weather Channel get to see good storms. My best guess is that they stop chasing rainbows and head to Texas ..namely Abilene to Del Rio to Dallas south of the Red River. The dam might be jammed, but the back log ends up well to the south at the bottom of the bowl.


WHY ARE ALL THESE SYSTEMS DOING THE SAME THING? It a big huge blocking pattern of Epic proportions. Just like the drought in Texas and other parts of the country (which by the way is expanding). Just like the Epic Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley Basin (and I do not think that has ended yet...there will be a brief reprieve though), and just like the EPIC Tornado Out Break in the Deep South recently. Everything is over-inflated and over blown. I think we can blame  this blocking pattern's team mate as well. IT'S A DOUBLE BLOCKING BLOCK OF ALL BLOCKS. Another stubborn block..over Siberia (of all places).  What will it take to break the pattern.  I've nicknamed the one over Siberia, because of its fixture, "Blockhead". Even though it could be called something more appropriate (perhaps vulgar), being as stubborn as a 'mule'.


My best guess after all is said and done,  having whittled through listening to forecaster  fails, after repeated long range model FAILS...my guess,...is longer days and the hence, warmer times.  Eventually, something minute as an atom hiccup could disrupt this delicate balance and send the ball rolling which would expand so logarithmically fast it would blow an Atom Bomb's mind.