On the 29th Anniversary of Hurricane Agnes Some Sparks Will Fly!

Graphical Depiction of Where Weak to Strong Tornadoes
Impacted Florida During the Passage of Hurricane Agnes in 1972. The track is shown to the West of  the Peninsula in lavender. Blue dots are severe thunderstorms/red triangles, tornadoes

THE SITUATION: Not a whole lot different today than yesterday but there are some subtle changes that will make a difference from Sunday. It is 12:30pm and the East Coast sea breeze has yet to form north of South Florida. It should begin during the next 30-60minutes and work from South to North up the coast. The breeze north of Vero Beach might first be felt from the N-NE and remain quite late until the true sea breeze arrival later in the afternoon. This wind will remain close to the coast..and will not be the full bore sea breeze.


Meanwhile, the upper level trough that was the impetus for large storm coverage over South Florida yesterday has pressed into the Atlantic..this area is now under some upper level subsident (sinking air)...but residual moisture remains and continues from a more southern source. Instability is not quite as strong down that way today and wind fields are much weaker aloft now that the upper trough has pulled east. Further exemplified by the fact that waterspouts have been able to form well off the coast of Ft. Lauderdale (in general), which require weak low level wind fields.  Further north, significant mid-level drying has occurred along and north of the Beachline.  Like yesterday, strongest mid-level westerlies prevail over North Florida.  It will be quite hot today along I-10 to JAX/TLH and south along the St. John's River Valley Basin to west of Ormond Beach.


TODAY:   TRICK-cast today...especially in the 'where it will rain today' department. All convection/showers/storms will be sea-breeze/Lake breeze boundary driven induced under a moderately unstable atmosphere.  The strongest storms will occur in general after 3:30pm when instability has been built up, boundaries have formed and begin to run into each other. That will happen over South Florida first, which is almost always the case when little to no other synoptic scale features are present. Some of the strongest storms in South Florida today will result from the Lake/Sea Breeze handshakes in Palm Beach and Broward County, possibly Martin County west of I-95. Other strong storms will occur near Miami metro but probably the strongest storms will occur  over  less populated areas around "The Lake" / Everglades.


SOUTH CENTRAL: Storms in South Central Florida will not even consider beginning to form until the sea-breeze boost begins from the SE-SSE from South to North with time, first in Indian River County. This boost should reach South Brevard around 4pm-4:40pm  which will then send the East Coast Seabreeze boundary inland in rapid fashion. Storms will form as the boundary accelerates inland then be left behind to linger in their own pee and die as the boundary continues.


Meanwhile. the west coast sea breeze could perform just the opposite..accelerating from North to South. Net affect will be that the sea breezes will begin to approach each other after 5pm well inland.  It is at this time that the best chance of an isolated strong storm or two is possible, mostly over Osceola/Okeechobee/Polk Counties with a random renegade strong storm in Lake County due to the extra moisture provided by the nearby lakes which the models do not pick up on.  Could be some showers along the St. John's River Valley Basin in NE Florida..but would be very short lived and not strong due to the very dry mid level air...solely on moisture convergence which will be quickly spent to simply form the clouds.

Thunder could occur (and/or be heard) in the Orange Areas today. Showers/Storms will be isolated for the most part to scattered for a time over South Florida and perhaps a portion of South Central Florida. Some very strong storms could occur in underpopulated areas of Osceola and Polk County after 6pm until shortly after sunset where some drier air from just to the north will be en-trained into updrafts..OR..that dry air will altogether prevent them. Could be interesting there today. See more in the following paragraphs. 

THIS EVENING: If there are even any storms to be found late today...the strongest storms should occur over  Okeechobee to  Northern Osceola County where mid-level dry air from  North Central Florida could be en-trained into the updrafts. Thus, if there are to be any briefly strong to pulse severe storms today, believe they will be either over Osceola/Okee/Polk County.


 In any case, it looks now as though any such storm would occur over a lowly populated area and will be hard to confirm its nature by an actual person.  Nearby swamp lands and marsh over SW Brevard County could add a boost to storms in Osceola County as they begin to en-train drier air from the north while receiving a moisture boost off the enhanced sea breeze as it blows over that terrain.


 Additionally, the strongest storms should occur over South Central due to the combined efforts of the enhanced late afternoon east coast sea-breeze, Lake Breeze, and  mass convergence PRECEDING the actual time the two breezes meet superimposed with contraflow areas. This should begin roughly after 5pm and peak between 6 - 8pm.  Storms will quickly dwindle once the sea breezes have embraced, shook hands, and are no longer arguing shortly after the sun sets and outflows kill any other surrounding showers. 


 Might be a orphan  or custody battle straggler though in Lake County for while after dark...or, perhaps in the custody battle, the Lake County area will never be able to generate a storm as South Central wins sole custody tonight. Any  activity, if it is occurs north of the Beachline, will be isolated and easy to spot (and avoid) if desired. As should that over South Central.


TOMORROW: Looks to be completely different from today but favoring more toward the West Side of The State with little in the way to completely deter showers or enhance them. 


WEDNESDAY: More favored for far North Florida with some isolated activity south of there.


TRANSITION DAY (Thursday): Like clockwork...the TRUE FLORIDA SUMMER WET SEASON MIGHT VERY WELL BEGIN almost on Calendar Summer (June 21). 


This would be the second latest the wet season has ever started on record'; second only to 1998 when it began in July sometime.


 Beginning Thursday and beyond, it looks  like the rule of thumb more often than not will  be hunting more for where it will not rain rather than where it will...easy to do..Just highlight A1A from Cape Canaveral to Cocoa Beach and you can't lose ;-(.

From Light Rain to Near Severe Storms Possible Over Florida Today

IMAGE: This image cover all the bases for today for where rain COULD occur. Note that the area in light blue and lavender are highly conditional upon the East Coast sea-breeze and which sea-breeze (East vs. West) prevails and/or if either one does.
Otherwise, The area in red seems to be where the best chance of stronger storms could occur. See the text portion below for why this day is complicated and why nothing is really measuring up. 

RECAP: A small mesoscale convective complex (MCC) formed late yesterday and severe weather occurred mostly in the areas they were thought most likely too; however, not in the way that they did. Parts of South Central Florida are still recovering from that system whereas North Central has almost fully recovered.
The most unstable and uncapped atmosphere is over South Florida which was never impacted by the system at all. As such, convection is already getting underway at this area near the coast along the East Coast sea-breeze.

TODAY: Firstly, please note that today's outlook is a little ambiguous. The synoptic scale alignment of features only falls together on the big scale over South Florida for storms today, which are already beginning there. Further north, another weak disturbance may run down long the East Coast later this afternoon. As this disturbance runs down the coast showers, then thunderstorms, and finally some thunderstorms that are strong could develop after 6pm toward after dark as far north as Orlando in the interior, uh..perhaps.

Second: The east coast sea breeze has yet to being, and at this hour yesterday it had already started. Be willing to bet that by the time I hit "send" it will be here at the beaches as well though. Just exactly how close to the coast (how far inland it manages to go) will be a big determinant for whether the area east of I-95 even sees storms today at all north of Vero Beach.The west coast sea breeze is already visibly moving eastward slowly.  Given the overall synoptic scale set up, and past history, dictates (in my mind only), that the east coast sea breeze will gain momentum after 4pm...but not so sure about how much momentum it will actually attain.  Model surface wind fields actually do not show it to strengthen much..and in fact weaken it to non-existent suspiciously by 7 or 8pm.  This could allow activity to reach the east coast in the purple areas after 7-8pm, that is, if there is any at all to head that way.

Otherwise, on the lower levels of the atmosphere little has changed since yesterday; it is the mid-levels that are driving the confusion, especially north of the Beachline. It may be that by the time all is said and done that even North Central Florida will be a run of the mill, standard early summer day with some isolated thunder or showers later as well...so I've thrown in the light blue area for extra measure. Some spots there could also see mid-late afternoon showers and maybe some thunder as well ..but whether it can actually reach the beach is debatable to pretty assured it will not.  Steering winds are generally going to be from the NW -N by later in the day from The BeachLine and South ..but they may not be strong enough to actually dictate storm motion. Outflow boundaries and propagation along them are the most likely driver for what direction storms will move over the inland areas.   


Lastly, the area over South Central Florida, especially toward the coast toward Vero Beach is the most stable region as of this moment. Thus, believe any shower activity of any noteworthiness other than maybe some renegade lightning  will hold off until prime time for storms (after 5pm).

SOUTH FLORIDA: Most obvious location for something to get going. In fact, it already has begun. BUT, this puts another fly in the ointment. Will all of this activity be over with by 5pm or have less coverage earlier and hold off until later? It would stand to reason so far that any time after 2PM to 6PM this area could have some strong/severe storms as noted in the red bounds; although, perhaps I should have included only the south half of that red area for earlier and further north much later.


Here's is the original graphic that I had come up with just the previous hour before the one above:

The biggest difference was that the area north of the Beachline was left out for any kind of thunder whatsoever today. But upon watching trends since 7AM...it's hard not to throw an isolated chance of something up there to see if it sticks. If it doesn't, the folks get to enjoy a drier day from start to finish. But those areas should at least see some showers around.

Isolated Thunderstorms Becoming Scattered / Strong-Pulse Severe After 3:30pm

NOW AT 11AM: West Coast sea-breeze in NW Florida is getting a start right ahead of a mid-upper level trough axis and can be seen by a cumulus cloud line on satellite imagery. Some of a Big Lake breeze is in the process over South Florida. Overall low to mid level steering before noon is from the WSW across Central and strongest over North Central and North Florida (green arrows/vectors). The upper level trough will sink slowly south through tomorrow morning. The prevalent smoke is looming off the east coast...and might move back on shore the coast with the sea breeze..but this does not appear likely this hour.

NOW: Above image shows the current situation with captions. The most unstable atmosphere this hour  is located all over South Florida and the adjacent waters. It is also here that the least amount of inhibition is in place.  Along the East Coast...especially all around the Space Center toward Melbourne the atmosphere is very stable.  Things will change though in the next 2 hours but rain here, if any, is still a long time coming.

TODAY: Using a blend of current situation and model trends since early this morning, which by the way were All Over The Place earlier.  Yesterday's convection (storms) left chaos not only over Florida but other parts of the country as well. Thus, today's and tomorrow's forecast is very tricky and subject to grave and dire inaccuracies. However, given the current situation at hand and the trend:

FLAILING ARMS FORECAST (WITH LIKELY FACE PALMS): Showers and some thunderstorms will begin along both the SW and SE Coasts west of the interstates and around Lake Okeechobee. Some of this activity could flirt with I-95 in Central to Northern Palm Beach County and just inland from Naples. Outflows from these storms could generate even more storms over the Everglades which can become strong after 2pm. Some areas along the east coast might end up with light rain even at the beaches with mid-upper level cloudiness/anvil rain near West Palm Beach or just south of there. Storms will work up the East Coast sea breeze toward South Central and Central Florida.

MEANWHILE: Quite warm today Central with highs in the mid-90Fs in the interior, and maybe some upper 90Fs toward Orlando (97F?). East Coast Central/North Central might have highs in the lower 90Fs with a delayed sea breeze sometime between 1-2pm.  As the sea breeze develops showers and some thunder can form as it tries to press inland.  Meanwhile, showers will form along the developing west coast sea breeze as well with the strongest storms east of the Big Bend toward Gainesville/Ocala later. Showers could try to form along the intracoastal over East Central after 1pm as well as along the West Coast seabreeze as it presses east toward JAX-Ormond Beach-Daytona.

MID-LATE AFTERNOON: Chaos in the forecast realm. Just about anything goes as models do not pick up with what is to occur in the lower levels once activity gets going and collapses, sending wind boundaries out in every which diretion and disturbing the diurnal small scale wind cycle..  So in resorting to the mid level winds and temperatures...

NORTHWEST-EAST 1/2 of  NORTH CENTRAL: Strong/Severe winds (possible) and non-severe sized hail is most likely to occur over parts of North Central/North East Florida much like yesterday.  Storms should be able to clear the coast from near or just north of Daytona Beach toward Ormond Beach, much like yesterday.

CENTRAL: Most complex situation indeed for the Beachline Zone  and the I-4 intersection area toward  Eastern Hillsborough/Tampa, Polk, and Osceola Counties...then east as well into Brevard/Indian River counties.  Sea breeze is expected (based on past days and as history tells us), to really pick up along the intracoastal after 4pm. If storms try to arrive to the beach after 3:30pm they might never be able to survive the journey across the water ways where the wind will be strongest from the SSE by 5-6pm.  On the other hand, if a strong storm (is strong enough)...it could reach the coast from  Melbourne Beach or just south of there and north to Cape Canaveral with a big punch. At this time, and again, as history tells me, this 'probably' will not be the case, but it is possible. Do expect that these areas could at least see some light rain today before all is said and done. One can hope.

Otherwise, strong to pulse severe could occur over Eastern Polk/anywhere Osceola/Orange/Seminole Counties..eventually back into Lake County toward Ocala. 

BACK SOUTH: Outflows from activity over Central/South Central and changing synoptic scale wind fields after 6pm could re-ignite some storms toward Boynton Beach//Miami Metro late toward 7-8pm..maybe later. That is a Big "If"...but cannot be discounted.

MOST RAINFALL (NOT NECESSARILY CONTAINING LIGHTNING TODAY?): Some rain areas could become nearly stationary during the early evening and re-ignite from light to moderate rain over the interior anywhere from Osceola/Orange/Seminole/Volusia/or maybe even Brevard west of I-95, as well as over the Everglades area.

SUNDAY: Could be another day not unlike today. But just as has been the case the past several days..there will likely be one or more organized thunderstorm clusters trying to enter the Deep South in the next 24 hours which would again make the forecast by tomorrow morning totally different from how it appears it would be right now for Florida. As a prelim...things look much the same tomorrow, with some big storms possible over South Florida under the assumption that energy with the 500mb trough will continue southward overnight tonight.

SMUGGY Conditions: Forecast in Question!

Latest conditions at 9AM. It's not too hard to understand...honest. The blue shades shows convective inhibition with lavender colors showing the strongest. That is bad for storms to form. On the other hand, the most unstable air
is located off the East/SE Coast and south of the Panhandle. Sea breezes should advect some
of that unstable air onshore. BUT, note the little blue 'cold front'. Satellite animation
indicates a small outflow boundary could impede into the Cape area in the new two hours...but SHOULD remain weak and not have too much of an impact overall for anyone other than Space Coast residents. Would prohibit rain formation east of US1. NOTE THE COMPLEX COMING DOWN TOWARD ALABAMA.

NOW: Shown above we see two extremely unstable areas of the atmosphere off the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as indicated. The best combination of instability and least inhibition is shown between the two green lines over Central Florida. This would lead one to believe, nothing else considered, that Central Florida in that area would get some storms today. However, note what might be a weak outflow approaching from the NE of the Cape. This might just be elevated clouds. Radar is NOT showing an outflow boundary, but it might be because it is still too far out of reach of the radar to detect.  Earlier models indicated that NE winds would move in, but they have changed their tune in the past hour. What's up with that?


Also of complexity is the winds just above the surface. Earlier indications from the MLB radar were that we would have 15-20 mph SE winds along the coast as soon as 10AM...but in the past two hours those winds just above the ground have become due south as we can see here:

Read the text in yellow for explanation. Believe those South winds will translate to SE once the sea-breeze can form. That is, if we do not get hit by an outflow boundary here at the coast first!

HSD FORECAST DISCUSSION: Firstly, I'm throwing nearly EVERY model out today. Should have done that yesterday as well; hence, there was some question when posting that one. Today is no different.


So what gives? The biggest things that are making for difficult forecasts is (1) the Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC) that are diving out of the Deep South and into NE Florida overnight through early morning. These are seldom forecast by models, or if so, the degree to how strong or organized they will be is normally incorrect.  Like yesterday morning, there was a stronger system to pass over NE Florida which sent a huge outflow boundary across the state like a tsunami, and squelched the rain chances, yet forecast models just went along as if it did not exist. Even at the time of the post yesterday which comes from models of 12z (8AM EDT)...the data used to generate those models was corrupted by the outflow boundary. It took until mid-afternoon for the next runs to catch up to the current situation.  And (2) The Smoke. This can separate moisture droplets, which prevents/deters storm formation unless something more organized such as those system affecting NE Florida. However, smoke does not always act as a deterrent depending on the particulates and the elevation at which those exist.


TODAY: So, for today, this forecast on HSD revolves around a combination of the current situation shown in the first image with a bit of model guidance as well as from data from the MLB VAD display pictured above.  


Also of note: On the satellite image I can see what looked to be a lot of mid-upper level clouds diving south toward the most favorable area right now for rain over Central Florida. That SHOULD put the kabash on that rain chance. Also seen is a lot of haze/smoke, likely consumed by the convective complex that went through the JAX area earlier. Trust me, we don't want to be around JAX the past couple of days. It's smokes-ville up there. The other complexity is the issue of the smoke in the air. This can tend to REDUCE rain chances given the right atmospheric conditions.  


So as not to diverge much from official outlets, but include a little flavor: Do believe the best chance of storms today will be from Southwest Florida toward the Tampa Bay area and inland toward Orlando and along I-4 to Daytona. Storms "should" not cross I-95 south of 528, but north of there the possibility does exist given the upper level winds. There is a smaller chance that storms could reach US1 from near Cape Canaveral (Rockledge) south toward Sebastian or Vero Beach. But, given the latest trends of satellite imagery, it  would seem any chance of rain  along the east coast today will be quite small until very late .


The main player today while be the close, Smuggy conditions. Smokey/hazy and humid. Little in the wind department  inland , with highs in the low-mid 90Fs, with the immediate coast between 86-90F before the sea breeze sets in.

Strongest storms over the Panhandle and NE Florida (very late, possibly well after dark). The area in white along North Central Florida toward Ormond Beach/St Augustine might be able to recover from mid/upper level cloud and smoke mix for strong storms later.  The other area to watch will be from Port Charlotte to Tampa Bay today after 5pm. Storms have a tiny chance of forming along the East Coast sea breeze and working with it by gaining strength as they approach the west coast sea breeze.

BEYOND: At this time, Florida is a bit stuck between the drier, hot season vs. the less hot and more muggy/wet season. It has been indicated for quite some time that a big change will be in store toward full on summer like conditions toward next weekend or a few days later.  A temporary shot of moisture from the south could also ride across the state later on Saturday through Monday. But if so, will only be temporary. Otherwise, the other sign that a summer pattern is setting up is that the low level Atlantic Ridge axis should meet up with one over the Gulf in the next 10 days if not sooner. This will set the stage from predominant SE to SW flow in the lower levels depending on where that ridge axis lies across the state for nearly the rest of the summer.


TOMORROW: Uh oh, looks like another Mesoscale Convective Complex might be diving out of Mississippi toward Alabama for tomorrow (see the first image in this post). This would again make tomorrow's forecast difficult. Thus, refraining to harp on a forecast for Saturday based on this uncertainty.

Early to Late Evening Thunderstorms - Some Very Strong South Central

Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery from 6:30AM this Thursday morning. We see two complexes of thunderstorms by the enhanced coloring of cold cloud tops over North Florida and the Atlantic. These system sent out two large outflow boundaries (OFBs) which spread South- through southwest -through west as noted by the 'cold fronts' drawn in.
South Florida at this time was under strong subsidence (settling of the atmosphere) and was quite stable in the wake of late evening rains in that area last night.

TODAY: First off and foremost, very difficult forecast for today. Almost tempted to write off rain chances today altogether, but things could come together by late this afternoon for showers and storms to form by 5-6pm so going ahead with a worst/best case scenario (depending on one's preference for rain and thunder). It will take a while though. 


As shown in the above image, storm complexes over SE Georgia and North Florida sent out huge outflow boundaries (OFBs) which raced South through West this morning and completely scoured out the atmosphere over the peninsula. Clouds have cleared nicely now though, but as can be seen by looking out side, clouds are pretty scarce behind these boundaries in the more stable air. High pressure has set up residence temporarily in the wake of this boundaries which are now in far South Florida where some showers have formed over the Keys area. Also, within the wake of the OFB(s) was NE winds. These winds, within the overall circulation, have drawn in haze and a 'smokey smell' to the coast in Canaveral even with an easterly wind at noon time. Haze is once again present as a result as well. This smoke/haze is coming from fires in SE Georgia, one of which can be seen in the last image in this post.

Over all storm steering winds at noon time show the high pressure over the center of the state. On one hand, this  is  very unfavorable for storms to form any time soon. On the other hand, the presence of this high will allow instability to build up this afternoon, but not to the level of instability achieved yesterday.

FORECAST: Believe that thunderstorms can still form today, but they will be late in coming. First storms should (and already have) appear in the Panhandle. Afternoon temperatures will not be nearly as warm as the past two days, with highs mainly in the mid-80Fs at the coast and low 90Fs inland except perhaps along SW Florida where some mid/upper 90Fs will occur.  The high pressure shown above should strengthen even more through early afternoon but begin to drop a bit south and west late today. The east coast sea breeze might be hard to discern...considering there is already an easterly gradient wind component in place, but when it does form it will come from the southeast to SSE around mid - afternoon. That sea-breeze boundary should meet up with the Gulf/West Coast Sea-breeze near the Gainesville to Ocala line. Storm motions will work to Ormond and maybe even Daytona but then begin to work more southward to SSW with time.

Strongest storms today should occur along the I-4 corridor and west of I-95 after 6pm, and work into the Orlando area. Lake County could also receive a good storm or two...but with time storm motions and propagation along the east coast sea breeze should stack up the precipitation along the Southwest side of the state. Storms/rain could last until 11pm...under the assumption they can form at all of course.

Believe storms will just skirt I-95 toward US1 in Volusia and far North Brevard. Showers can occur over the Keys early as well as well after dark.  Some storms might linger in the Orlando area and try to backbuild toward Northern Brevard County after 9-10pm, but that option is not shown in the image due to the already mounting unsure/doubtfulness in today's post.  Also note the radar return in SE Georgia. That is actually smoke.

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Overall, not a lot of change in the pattern. A surface to mid-level ridge Atlantic Ridge axis will set camp either directly over Central Florida or South Central Florida. Late afternoon to evening thunderstorms will be possible closer to the East Coast, especially from near Mims and North to JAX. So far, it appears storms could clear the east coast for almost all of Brevard during the late afternoon on Friday. Storms most any day could be exceptionally strong due to wind gusts and/or hail size in isolated/random fashion, especially on Friday.

Hazy/Hot, Followed by Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Mostly South-Central

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE atmosphere over North and Central Florida this morning per the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Indices (LIs). Steering so far today is generally from the NNW-NW but could become more due north toward evening.  East Coast sea breeze will not get much further west than I-95 in some locations.

TODAY: Hot and hazy will sum it up for most everyone early today. Most sounding are showing a respectable very low level inversion. This, coupled with higher ground moisture and strong insolation is trapping much of this moisture in the lower levels, yet otherwise, there is little to no cap in place aloft.  The most unstable (extremely so) is over North and Central Florida with some 'spin' to the air (helicity) near JAX associated with the back-side of the weak surface low circulation noted in the above image. Temperatures inland could again reach the upper 90s to near 100F, especially along I-10. Very hazy, and even smokey around far NE Florida toward western Daytona Beach. Smoke from SE Georgia is being pulled into the circulation of the low offshore and being drawn southward.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY: Much more unstable atmosphere and lower lifting condensation levels (LCLs) and  level of free convection (LFC). Additionally, spots that received more rain yesterday, namely East Central, could add some initial fuel to the fire (don't say that word) for storms over South Central later this afternoon.  As long as this weak inversion holds the greater the instability will mount. Low level lapse rates are steep and mid-level lapse rates (decrease of temperature with height) aren't so shabby either.  There was some severe category wind reports yesterday and very small pea sized hail, but from what I could find, those wind reports came in at about 5 stories (50ft) or more above the ground. Do not believe that will be the case today because of the lower LCLs and LFC today.  It was also very hot yesterday, with MLB reacing 100F and my place, for the first time ever, reaching 101F.




SPECIAL ATTENTION -  once a storm can initiate it could go up fairly rapidly. BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. Additionally, given that many areas did not receive rain yesterday there are still plenty of dry spots for rampant 'born free' lightning bolts to play with on the dry tinder. Bolts can fly well outside of any yet to form rain. Often, the first bolts are generated before the first rains barely reach the ground. This is caused by updrafts in the storm suspending small hail/rain from reaching the ground, but in turn is theorized as being a mechanism for lightning creation. It is a bit hazy today too, so as storms form nearby it might be hard to tell just exactly where they are unless very close...or if one has a watchful eye.


FORECAST: Firstly, none of the models seem to be agreeing today with the eventual outcome of what will occur with the weather today...only the RUC model picked up on the circulation off the coast of JAX as well as how unstable the atmosphere is today. Today's forecast is based on that model combined with actual analysis from the Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Analysis values (and trends since early morning), and latest morning soundings...as well as looking through the trends in the Local Data Information System (LDIS) plots which are available on Melbourne's NWS web page..


SOUTH FLORIDA: Storms should ignite first in this area due to earlier onset of the Lake shadow affect meeting either the East and/or West coast sea breeze.  Storm motions should be toward the SE...but for the most part steering currents (mid-upper level wins) overall are weaker over South Florida. So the most likely net affect will be for storms to ride along boundaries created by earlier outflows combined with sea breeze boundaries as well as the Lake Breeze. Also believe the threat in this area for Severe Level storms is a  bit less, but not completely out of the question. Especially when considering that high moisture may work south with time later today.  It might never completely reach far South Florida..but storms could initiate to the north and roll into the Southern Tier. Looking especially toward the East side of Lake Okeechobee. Any storms to ignite will be capable of strong winds in and near activity. First storms of the day will likely create the strongest winds, especially any to go up after 2:30-3pm (during peak heating).


CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA: It is currently in this area that the most  unstable atmosphere either lies at this time...or is being advected into from further North toward Jacksonville. Believe the east coast sea-breeze will be later in manifesting further north if at all north of St. Augustine.  Due to the high heat content, extreme instability, combined with the overall depth of the lower level moisture, the greatest threat will be what is referred to as "wet microbursts". In essence, very strong winds in excessive of 58mph, especially as storms pulse to their strongest and collapse. Wet, because they are. Some storms today may actually become a bit organized and 'pulse-up' more than once before collapsing on themselves. Jet stream level winds are stronger today as are mid-level winds...these will enabled storms to evacuate unstable air upward for longer amounts of time due to a bit of a tilt. Additionally, anvil level winds will spread toward the east...with the energy fueling the storms coming from the NNW..the energy supplying the storms will arrive from north to south and be unadulterated by storm anvil shadows which will be stretched away from incoming energy.


NORTH CENTRAL/NORTH: Strong storms also possible from Ocala/Gainesville area and into the Panhandle...very late to after dark.


Storms could continue sort of like the last kernels in a kettle of popcorn to 'pop' randomly in isolated pockets until 10pm just about anywhere.


Of most interest, as noted in the graphic...will be what could occur if timing is JUST PERFECT to allow a storm to form near Ormond Beach/Daytona as the sea breeze sets up.  Any storm that can latch on to the sea-breeze breeze boundary and be forced southward east of I-95 could rotate, especially at the lowest levels toward Southern Volusia late where the sea breeze 'could' become more Southerly very late in the afternoon due to the Coriolis Affect.  This is not expected to occur today, but then again, is it ever?! This is just a heads up for boater concerns more than anything else, as if the lightning threat is not bad enough. At time, do not see this as being any more that a casual note in passing.


Elsewhere, expecting the strongest storms into South/ Central and parts of Central Florida just north of the Beachline after 6pm, under the assumption they hold off until then. At this time of day the sea breezes will be at their prime strength, adding to low-level convergence which in turn leads to faster rising air currents with deeper overall moisture content through the lowest levels. Storm to initiate for whatever reason after 6pm have the most likelihood of being full bore 'Severe'. Some storms could produce nickel sized hail and wind gusts above 65mph - 75mph perhaps (very isolated).


Greatest coverage expected to be over Eastern Polk/Osceola Counties.


THURSDAY: Beginning to look more like a "isolated, becoming scattered thunderstorms in the interior" type day. But not completely sold just yet.


GREAT BEYOND: Continuing to watch the long term for both tropical development as well as the full-bore moisture levels across Florida to arrive. This year is turning out to be much like 1998, which had one the latest onsets of the Wet Season on record, as well as the hot temperatures, and brush-fires. This year is not at all far behind 1998 in many ways. Thankfully, Central Florida received some rain in the early spring/late winter with those squall lines that came through. Otherwise, it could be much worse.

Showers/Thunder Possible by MidAfternoon Becoming Strong Late Afternoon

CURRENT CONDITIONS AT 11AM EDT: Air mass over North Central Florida ahead a weak boundary, possibly a remnant outflow boundary from yesterday, is located across North Central Florida. Remnant mid-upper level moisture seems to be pooling ahead of that boundary resulting in a moderately unstable atmosphere. A less unstable atmosphere resides over South Florida. The most STABLE area if over Southern Brevard toward West Palm Beach this hour.

CURRENT: Main frontal boundary is north of Florida, while a weaker boundary, perhaps a remnant of yesterday's convection that was across North Florida, resides across northern portions of North Central Florida. Winds are from the west in general with a WNW-NW steering flow. North Central Florida is becoming moderately to strongly unstable toward the west side of the state where a cumulus cloud field is increasing in amount and coverage the past 2 hours. Less cloud coverage, unlike the past two days, is over South Florida.
In essence, many of the factors that are currently in place at this time are what I've been expecting to find since Sunday for this time of day today, so not much change in previous thinking is in store.


Otherwise, I can see some fire (smoke) on visible satellite imagery and even radars in SE Georgia, another in Southern Volusia, and one or two more. The smoke from these fires is reducing visibility to  various degrees and creating a 'smokey smell' down stream of the lower to mid-level winds of these areas along the east side of the state. This smoke can be a limiting factor for storms today; however, it can create 'arcing' of lightning into precipitation free areas. 
BEWARE OF NEARBY STORMS AND DARKENING SKIES TODAY. Even without rain, 'dry lightning' is possible.


TODAY: HOT today most everywhere with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs inland and low-mid 90Fs along the east coast in some spots. I do believe an East Coast sea-breeze will be able to form during the mid-late afternoon in most areas (sooner over the barrier islands), but will remain close to the coast.  Due to the prevalent area of unstable air over North Central Florida...combined with higher overall moisture content..combined with recent indications that this area is moving little through mid-morning...storms/ showers could from in this area as the West coast sea breeze presses eastward. The best chance for stronger storms will be south of the surface boundary (which should press a bit south today and wash out) which will be just along an east/west line very close to just north of the Beach Line.


The strongest storms should form after the east coast sea-breeze has become established toward the east side of the state later this afternoon east of the Florida Turnpike toward US1, possibly affecting some of the barrier islands as well.  The atmosphere over Indian River, Martin, St. Lucie, and Southern Brevard at this hour is much like that which existed yesterday over Central Florida, That is, very stable in comparison.  However, this area could either a) become more unstable late this afternoon; or 2) have storms roll into these areas later today (after 5-6pm) with the steering currents in place.  Forecast soundings have been showing a bit of an "A-Type" or "Inverted V" profile, although not classic, these can lead to very strong winds at the ground as cold air falls through a drier layer near the surface. Storms during the collapsing phase can also produce some small, pea-sized hail (at least).

Some strong to pulse severe storms are possible later today into the early evening. A lot today will depend on whether mid-late afternoon storms can even form at all. If they form earlier, activity could become widely scattered along the east and south halves of Florida by 6pm. Otherwise, should activity not be able to initiate, activity will be more isolated very nearer the east coast from Central Brevard to Miami from 5pm -10pm.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Even more complex will become an issue with the Lake Okeechobee 'shadow effect'. Storms could become strong in this area as well after 5pm along either northern or southern (or both) bounds of the shadow...depending on where it ends up or how it moves.  Believe storms over Southern Portions of this area might be a bit higher based due to the lack of moisture in place at this hour which probably will not modify enough by later today, except over Central Palm Beach to Dade Counties.


NORTH FLORIDA: Not to leave North Central out all together, the area near the St John's River from near St. Augustine toward Ormond Beach could see 'A" isolated strong./marginally severe storm during the early evening as well after a full day of temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs and increasing instability after 5-6pm. This activity could roll into NW-Central Volusia Counties along and east of I-95.


SIDE NOTE 1: Contingent upon when activity begins to develop mainly from Orlando and east...some areas might receive rain more than once today.


SIDE NOTE 2: Should activity become relatively strong along the East Coast during the mid-late afternoon, outflow boundaries could initiate an even stronger round of storms toward Orange/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties from 6pm - 9pm. Especially considering that by this time frame steering should becoming more from the NNW-N with time. As such, inland areas might receive, per note 1, more than one round of rain today.

WEDNESDAY: Not much change in thinking from yesterday. Isolated to scattered storms inland and toward the west side of the state, with storms toward Lake County very late toward early evening.

Isolated Strong/ Pulse Severe Storms Possible in Parts of Florida Today

STRONG/SEVERE thunderstorms possible over part of the Panhandle/North Florida. Chaotic pulse strong/severe storms possible South Florida. Most of  Dead Central Inactive until early evening.

SYNOPSIS: Not  really a whole lot different today for Central and South Florida from yesterday. High pressure  is centered  over the Gulf generally as noted in this image.  A weak mid-level ridge axis containing relatively warmer upper level air stretches across Central Florida this morning and will persist through the majority of the day. Along this axis also exists the driest moisture throughout the atmosphere. Therefore, little to no shower activity worth noting is expected across the Beachline zone until at least after 6pm.


North Florida:  is closest to a diffuse surface boundary where moisture is pooling. There may be even more moisture gathering along that boundary than  over South Florida. The atmosphere over North Florida is forecast to become moderately to very unstable by early afternoon under very hot temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs. Storms that can go up roughly along I-10 from JAX toward Tallahassee, potentially initiating along the West Coast/Gulf Coast sea-breezes will strengthen from west to east, possibly reaching as far south as Northern or Central Volusia Counties by later in the afternoon. Other storms could roll into the Western Panhandle region out of SE Alabama and.or form along the Gulf Coast Sea-breeze.

South Florida: Like yesterday, mid-level winds are weak once again, but there already appears to be a weak cyclonic circulation centered west of Miami in western Dade/Broward Counties. South Florida will be in its own 'little world' today out of any synoptic scale bounds, yet the mesoscale environment in this area does look interesting from a meteorological perspective.


The  convectively inclined air mass in this location, like yesterday, is almost already moderately unstable even at only mid-morning; only a bit more destabilization is likely.  With near zero convective inhibition in place, I'd expect activity to develop (again like yesterday) early to mid-afternoon as West Coast/East Coast/and Lake Breezes begin to migrate toward each other. 


Believe that these storms (under the assumptions that a few will forms) will create their own boundaries to propagate along since the overall steering currents remain relatively weak (other than the weaker showers); but with stronger upper level winds, these storms should be able to evacuate from their tops with collapsing on themselves as the propogate. This makes overall storm motion nearly impossible to negotiate; however, some storms should be able to reach the A1A-I-95 corridors in Dade/Broward/and Southern Palm Beach County (at least). Outflow boundaries could initiate storms further north with time in domino fashion toward Martin County, perhaps approaching Vero Beach very close to the coast late afternoon.


Central Florida: Here is where the least moist, most stable, and warmest air aloft resides. All factors totally non-condusive for thunderstorms or even rain-shower development. Therefore, my guess this morning is that Central Florida will see little in rain today until at least after 6pm AFTER peak heating. And it will be pretty hot today in this area with highs in many locations reaching the mid-90Fs inland (perhaps some reaching around 97F near Orlando and suburbia as well as inland of the Tampa region. East Coasters along US1 to A1A might be the only ones to feel a sea breeze in this area today by early afternoon. Perhaps sooner on the barrier islands.  Any showers/storms to form in this area will have to rely on either 
1) Moisture closing in from the north and south after 4-5pm as the afternoon heat cools and dew-points rise (dew point depressions lower); or
2) Showers/storms (more likely) roll out of the northern sector into the most favorable early evening atmosphere from mostly the spine of the state and east.  There has been some indications that a particularly strong storm could form under this scenario from near Sanford toward the Mims area after 7pm which might brush the northern KSC area heading toward dark.  Chances are, if this does occur it will be later than models indicate, so wouldn't be surprised to see that not unlike yesterday...any showers to reach or outright form east of Orlando will not do so until after 8pm.


TUESDAY: Not much change in previous thinking. Interestingly, the inverse pattern from today is being depicted, with the most unstable atmosphere to reside along the Beach-line area into Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties on the East Coast.  There could be a strong storms near the coast on Tuesday by mid-afternoon to early evening somewhere within this area. Otherwise, showers could reside closer to the East Coast in South Florida once again.


WEDNESDAY: Early indications are portraying scattered thundershowers up and down the spine of the state on Wednesday, some quite strong with both immediate coasts laying low on the rain chances under chaotic mid-level winds.

Changing of the Guard Today As Pattern Transitions/Some Strong Storms Possible Late

Showers and thunderstorms (some  isolated strong storms conditionally possible late as noted below). 

TODAY: As the title of today's post implies and as noted yesterday, we will have a changing of the 'guard' today in the wind surface and upper level wind fields as the nuisance/non-eventful filled pattern which harbored a high false alert rate for rain potential has moved on.  However, there still remains the upper level low which is forecast to move over the north half of the state today and exit off the NE Coast by early evening.


CON in forecasting today:  Weak wind fields and warmer air in the mid-levels, adding to indecisiveness. Change in the pattern. Affect of potential subsidence/timing of unfavorable jet stream level winds until late today. Will they move on in time? Additionally, at this hour about the most stable (non-convection conducive) area is in and near that highlight for strong storms later today (East Central)...EEK.


FORECAST: Expecting 'relatively' strong sea breeze along the East Coast after 4pm. Due to prevailing upper level winds from the WNW-NNW (albeit light), the west coast sea breeze would theoretically be the dominant, most evasive boundary to push east of I-75 and toward the Orlando area ( the spine of the state)  by 5pm. Convergence along this boundary combined with PERHAPS a magnified east coast sea breeze wind surge could induce stronger storms East Central after 5pm.  


Believe ' near collisions' will start out further north and work south with time toward the early evening..as well as over South Florida.  Moisture is greatest this morning over South Florida; however, that could be rationalized as being because that area has been under cloud cover until mid-morning...so this might be misleading to this forecaster.


It must be noted the atmosphere on the generalized synoptic scale this morning probably will not resemble that which will exist later today due to the pattern change, making this forecast a bit more difficult than usual.  Additionally, although there is some moderate instability in place, most of the afternoon convection (rain) will be induced by near sea breeze and lake breeze collisions.  If some of the latest guidance I've seen this morning is remotely close, then vertical velocities (upward motion) along the strongest boundary collision will occur west of I-95 over  western Volusia, Seminole,  Orange, and Osceola Counties. Thus, the stronger storm chance there as noted above.


Additionally, strong storms could form earlier (due to earlier collisions) over South Florida. A Lake Breeze could be an additional factor here, although I'm a bit more skeptical about this area at time. But given that instability is greatest there right now..it cannot be counted out. 


Otherwise, given the above, areas along the East Coast could become cloudy after 6-7pm due to debris clouds/anvil level clouds UNDER THE ASSUMPTION that storms and showers  form as outlined.


Overall \, atmospheric moisture and instability isn't quite up to seasonal norms, but there does appear to be a trigger or two embedded within the mid-upper level flow from the NNW, one of which might have based over Central Alabama earlier in the morning per satellite animation as well as another over Central Georgia. The latter is no longer apparent, presumably because it entered some drying air or it simply was the perfectly wrong time of day for it to manifest in the cloud signature.


WORST CASE SCENARIO: Very strong storms with active lightning west of I-95 and near the turnpike from West Volusia/Seminole/Central-East Orange/Central-East Osceola County during the time noted in the provided self, hand-painted graphic. This would be due to, if it occurs, a secondary 'surge' in the East Coast Sea-breeze combined with a dominant west coast sea breeze late (essentially about 2-3 hours after peak heating). During this time of day, dew point /ambient air temperatures come closer together (humidity increases). In the absence of gradient flow, the east coast sea breeze can take on a more southerly component due to the Coriolis affect which in turn increases low level helicity along the leading edge of, and within, the sea breeze front.


OTHERWISE: Without an East Coast sea-breeze surge...more generic type showers and thunderstorms will be possible of lesser coverage and strength. Either way, it could get cloudy along the east coast communities by early evening unless of course storm initiation falls to materialize as hypothesized to the degree being depicted by model guidance. (one model initiates nothing more than some sprinkles today). 


MONDAY: Although atmospheric moisture will continue to be below seasonable norms, isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility along and west of I-95 Monday, but at time it does not appear coverage on Monday will be as high (nor strength as great) based on guidance.


TUESDAY: Still holding firm for now that some strong to severe storms will be possible over a portion of North Central and North Florida. South Florida might begin to have less of a chance of rain on Tuesday, if only on this day.


WEDNESDAY: Westerly mid-upper level wind component increases just a bit. Some coastal communities from JAX to MIA might actually get some rain or a thunderstorm. Most activity would form late (other than near JAX) and be glued very close toward the east side of the state, possibly only forming along I-95 then moving offshore by late afternoon.


THROUGH THE WEEKEND: So far, the GFS is holding firm to its forecast reasoning of the past 6 days now. That being, a low level ridge axis located near the Florida Straits works north with time toward Central Florida by the weekend. If so, this will favor storms over the interior (under the climatological assumption that there would be at least some minimal atmospheric moisture and a non-capping (air not too warm aloft) environment in place. Could be some days will be much drier than others contingent on 'booster shots'   by disturbances migrating down from the more northern border states.


REFER TO THE NWS FOR LATEST INFORMATION INCLUDING STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS, AS WELL AS NOWCASTS.

Chance of Storms (Possibly Strong) Near the Fires In South Florida Today

Not as complicated as it may look to you...to break things down: 1) Low level circulation exists over/near the Central Bahamas (orange arrow shows east Florida on backside of this circulation; 2) Upper level circulation in the Eastern Gulf up to the jet stream level (blue arrow); 3) Expected sea-breeze fronts shown in blue boundaries late today; 4) showers/thunder possible in green and lavender. Image extracted from the Storm Prediction Center's mesoscale analysis page via http;//www.spc.noaa.gov  with the colored annotations by self

CURRENT: Not much change from the past two for East Central Florida so not much need to elaborate there. There are two 'kind of' interesting features here mid-morning 1) convergent cloud line over far North Brevard over northern Cape Canaveral to KSC has moved little since 8AM. 2) Convergent bands emanating from the back side of the surface low over the Bahamas bringing showers near the coast of Ft. Pierce and vicinity but not quite making it ashore.  Both features will likely dissipate with onset of the East Coast sea-breeze which is a little slow in getting started today due to the disruption on the normal diurnal low level wind cycles in the presence of the surface low as well as the upper level one in the Eastern Gulf.  Mid-level flow flow is weak across the state and a bit dry as well between the low and upper level features. Mid-level moisture is sorely lacking, so not expecting any showers over the land area today here.


"HSD" FORECAST PERCEPTION TODAY: The highlight for the day is hopeful thinking that showers and thunderstorms will form very close to the  persistent fires in Western Miami-Dade area. Smoke had moved in toward the metro area this morning on NW winds which had been directed toward the WSW-W the previous two days.  Under the assumption that thunder can form over  the far South today, this would potentially help quench the thirsty vegetation, although there is also a threat of lightning. Mid-level moisture and winds are lacking, so any storm that can develop in this area could be either an efficient lightning producer or a wind gust maker near the storms. This would be the CON side regarding the fires. That being, should a storm form near the fires, send out dry lightning and be accompanied by strong wind gusts, this would add fuel to the fires rather than abort them.


The other area of interest for showers will be toward interior west and northwest Florida as indicated by the showers (green) color. Late evening low level wind convergence near I-75 could result in some very late afternoon thunder in that area, although that  chance becomes even more questionable.


TOMORROW: Essentially all low pressure features will be moving toward the NNE-NE over the next 24-48 hours, thus Sunday will begin an overhaul (transition) of the atmosphere in the winds fields.  There does appear that there will be a better chance of sea breeze convergence (collision) over South Central and South Florida over the interior. Light mid-level winds and timing (late) of this collision will likely keep the coasts dry on both sides of the state, but there is a chance of isolated thunder over the interior areas to west of I-95 and South Florida once again.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: A stationary front over the country's mid-section and into the NE states (combined with a geographic-type trough down the spine of the Appalachian Chain) will be forced south to southeastward into Central Georgia. By this time, the low currently over the Bahamas will be FAR removed from the picture and possibly merge with the synoptic scale front off the coast of the NE states with time. Overall atmospheric moisture levels will be sufficient for interior thunder again, but mainly closer to the front/trough over North Florida. Finer details, given the mounting uncertainty with time going into this time frame will need to be re-evaluated as this time frame approaches. 


It is interesting though (to this writer), that Tuesday could end up being a day of rather strong thunderstorms over East Central Florida.  Both the NAM and GFS indicate the surface front will be located near Southern Georgia with NNW-NW flow aloft, and from the WNW in the mid-levels ( with a sea breeze).  Mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes/maxims), are forecast to be embedded within this flow and to enter Central and North Florida during the early - mid afternoon hours.  The net affect would be isolated but strong storms over East Central Florida from the mid-late afternoon reaching the coast by early evening. Worth monitoring. Meanwhile, South Florida might remain once again dry during this time frame.


BEYOND TUESDAY: GFS has shifted gears into over-drive (unfortunately) and wants to bring the front completely through the state by Wednesday, bringing a return to 'east to west' low level flow across the state. This is forecast, per this sudden change, to last until at least early NEXT weekend before a pattern more favorable for seasonable afternoon/evenings showers and thunder can again be introduced into the forecast as it previously had shown to be continuous from Tuesday and points on in previous model runs. I believe this change in the extended is due to the strength o fa system as it gains momentum over the Central Plains states today and tomorrow, which looks to be greater than previously supposed. Not sure I'm buying into the trend just yet.


TROPICS: No tropically inclined features worth note are analyzed this morning. Will be watching the Bay of Campeche area though heading into late next week (personally).


As is noted at the top of the web page for these forecasts, 'all discussions and forecasts are of my own interpretation/extrapolation/best guesses. Please refer to official NWS forecasts".  To add, though, I often read each and every forecast discussion from the offices in Florida as well as others in the Deep South as well as the Plains states to gain a broad perspective of the overall large scale picture. It is interesting to see what others are able to see that I may miss; on the other hand, it sometimes (but rarely) works the other way around.

Lightning Storms Toward the Western Interior/West Coast Today

Color coded regions of possible showers and thunderstorms, with increasing chances in both categories from the interior and toward the west coast of the state. South Florida region less certain due to persistent high cloudiness.

CURRENT & SYNOPSIS/MODEL(S) REVIEW: Broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean and into the Gulf well analyzed this morning by model 'guidance'. Jet stream level winds around the base of the upper level area of low pressure across portions of South and South Central Florida combined with ample upper level moisture is resulting in high clouds over the region. Slow moistening of the atmosphere at all levels from south to north in the next few days. Nearly all the models are in consensus that a surface/mid-level low will form SE of Florida which will move northward east of the state.  The majority of the models are now in agreement with the GFS (which has been favored in these posts for several days), which would place this low pressure circulation well east of the state, however, there is still some debate. Either way though, the only impact if it  were to be closer to the Florida East Coast will be stronger east to northeast  winds for a 12-24 hour period and some near to onshore showers which, as of late this morning,  would occur on Saturday just about anytime. This will not be of fully ( or nearly 'any') tropical nature.


TODAY: East coast sea-breeze getting a mid-morning start in the easterly gradient flow. Line of some moderately towering cumulus clouds offshore the Cape area initiated some very light showers and a funnel cloud offshore the Cape which approached shore (whether  this funnel cloud touched water remains UNK (unknown). Otherwise, due to the lighter gradient flow toward the west side of the state, a west coast sea-breeze is expected to be able to form today, which could press as far east as the Western Interior.  Mid-Late afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form where  the West Coast sea-breeze and easterly gradient flow enhanced by the east coast sea breeze converge, mainly in the red area, although the region as far south as Naples could hear thunder as well based on latest visible satellite trends which show that  cirrus clouds are thinning.  Some storms could be briefly 'pulse strong' (as almost any thunderstorm can) due to some dry air entrainment  in the mid-levels. Storms would be strongest in the Tampa Bay area due to the  squirrely/swirly nature of the Bay Wind convergences  late this afternoon.


LATE AFTERNOON/MID-EVENING: Storms should (could) form along the West side of the state as noted above. Elsewhere, East Coastal showers could move onshore from South Volusia toward Ft Pierce by early evening, although this looks questionably admitted;  the signs are there with forecast models indicating  atmospheric instability to increase a bit during the day into the early evening  in the  tropical like air mass moving northward throughout the day today. Therefore, have thrown in some 'green' to the east central coast for early afternoon showers west of I-95 which will move west into the mid-late afternoon as well as for onshore moving showers at the coast after 5 or 6pm (the latter just to cover the bases).


FRIDAY: A lot depends on what and where finally develops regarding a low pressure area in the SW Atlantic near Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. For now, though, will rely on the previous post that this entity will be too far offshore to directly impact the state. Cannot discount the chance of east coast showers though with any vorticity ('energy') lobe rotating around the backside of the low to pass over or near the coast as well as with convergence along the developing east coast sea breeze as it moves onshore and over the inland lagoons.


BEYOND: Guidance portrayed by the NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFS  (as well as two others not normally referred to in these posts) are all showing that a frontal boundary now over Eastern PA/NY into the upper Midwest will move east the next few days and merge with a trough running down the spine of the Appalachians (storms in Western North Carolina the next few days as a result).  This boundary is forecast to be forced east and south with time...and will become entrenched over Central or Southern Georgia sometime Saturday or Sunday.  Convergence along this boundary will increase thunderstorm chances over North Florida/Panhandle regions.  


Additionally, a surface ridge of high pressure following northward passage of the low pressure disturbance forecast to pass east of Florida (as noted above) will work north (aligned west to east) and be situated either along the Florida Straits or South Florida.  This will place almost all of the state in a west to east steering flow, with the east coast sea-breeze being suppressed from reaching any further west than the spine of the state and even more toward the east side with time as it forms solely based on diurnal heating of the 'landmass heating' mechanism.  


With the increased  atmospheric moisture by this time now in place from previous days, a delayed morning east coast sea breeze  could make late morning to noon time temperatures warmer than past days along the east coast. With little in Convective Inhibition (CIN), ample moisture, and little capping warm air aloft in place...mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms should have no problem being initiated which will move eastward and offshore by early evening if not sooner in the day.  This general pattern is expected to begin either on Sunday or Monday...timing of which can be refined / ascertained with greater confidence in the next two/three days.


The future forecast beyond NEXT Friday becomes less certain, with the GFS pressing the front entirely through the state with easterly flow (like that of recent days) resuming.  Generously, this model leaves that portion of the  forecast set up to be of relatively short duration by once again creating a very summer-like ridge of high pressure across South Central Florida and again placing favorable thunderstorm chances back into the forecast for mostly northern portions of South Central Florida and all of North Florida well out in time. Meaning, early day showers/thunder along the west coast and mid-afternoon to early evening showers/thunder Central to East side.


TROPICS: No tropical entities at time appear to be of an immediate or mid-range threat.