"Lee the Loopy Chimney" Lingers - Lingering Effects Could be Long Lasting

General Area of Lightning Indicated By Dots. Circles Show
in General  The Lopsided Configuration of Lee as it entrains (extracts)
dry air from the WNW. Locally today, showers and some thunder most likely as shown over Florida..some sprinkles are possible into sunset further north near the east coast, St John River Valley basin, brief and no impact. Note that the lightning is well out in the Gulf..not near Lee's core. This shows that 1) There is plenty more energy out there to be utilized and 2) There is more to Lee than just the central lowest pressure and immediate wind fields are located, as opposed to well organized, tight-knit tropical system.  Now, see the next image.

See the captions. Lee is Shown by the Red "L". Heat energy in the Gulf in Orange and strongest stacked winds in Black.

Other colored areas show upper level divergence and low level convergence which extend well to the south and east of Lee. That is where the lightning is most located. 

TODAY: Going to try to leave it brief today for the locals. Latest on Lee is that the storm was drifting north at 5 mph or so...and latest radar animations show that Lee is doing that as well as perhaps taken a dogleg to the west. Rain has moved into far Eastern Texas as a result. Although dry air has been getting entrained (pulled in toward) into Lee from Texas, the storm is creating a bit of its own moisture field as it has gained a bit in organization. The very broad wind field over the Gulf is taking in the highest heat energy residing to the south and east of the central area of Lee shown in orange above, of which there might be actually two if one goes up a few thousand feet. Lee seems to be feeding off the heat energy and, like a chimney, is spewing its ashes and soot over the far reaches of the Gulf (divergence aloft), and most of the Northern Gulf Coast communities as fuel keeps being supplied from the Gulf (convergence). The storm can not move at this time far from the source due to high pressure now located to the NE through North of the storm...there is very little shear to inhibit or rather tear down the chimney..so the Chimney Sweeps are in high demand to keep the embers burning. Looks like they are doing a good job too.


Per the latest NHC forecast and model consensus, Lee could linger well into Monday before making a painfully slow move toward the North then eventually NNE-NE as a frontal boundary of unseasonably strong proportions swoops into the Central and Southern Plains states.  All of the models have Lee eventually succumbing to this trough and finally breaking down and being stretched out toward the NE with time. All of them that is, except the NAM...which insists Lee will maintain itself..likely do a loop, then head back toward the breeding grounds.

The North American Model (NAM) has this course of action indicated. Note Katia in the right side of the image. but this time around Thursday or Friday. Again, this is by far an outlier, but nonetheless, indicative
of not only the uncertainties in where Lee will make its even larger impact in days to come, but also those that have been indicated in the long-range through the 3rd week of September. In other words, although this model perhaps can be disregarded it could be used as a tool to read between the lines of what other models are showing as being more definitive. Eventually, something in between all  of them will be the reality.

ANOTHER way of Looking at Lee. The red L near the LA coast is the storms location (very roughly). The heat energy is SOUTH of the low...and divergent upper level wind flow is shown right over the storm's core area. This is helping the storm to spread out..and maintain and even lower its central pressure. In black, I drew in the NAM model track as shown above in the previous image. Disguarding the model in full, but not in part. Overall, it could mean that Lee will be around longer than was originally thought by a good 24 hours at least. Also note the heat energy over the SE Gulf and the western Caribbean. A lingering trough(s) from Lee in this area and/or small tropical waves toward the SE Coast Of Florida are  future contenders for a least some sort of partial tropical development in the next two weeks. Lee will leave a legacy behind in more ways than one. 

In closing with Lee, the main point to realize is that it will likely never be a classic looking tropical system, but regardless, the effects from the storm could be significant from Coastal Lousiana to the Florida Panhandle..extending north to Mississippi, SE Arkanas, East half of Tennessee, W-NW Georgia mountains, and the Appalachians of North Carolina , Virginia, and West Virgina. It still as a frontal boundary to interact with assuming it does head toward the NNE-NE.  That being...remember all of the wind and heat energy shown in the first image over the Gulf which could at least be partially escorted with the system once it lifts north (under the huge and popular assumption that it will). But how much will be left behind? Looks like a lot will be. 


The water further south remains untainted by up-welling of cooler waters underneath.


IN SUMMARY: If there was a lesson to be learned from Irene, NOW is the time to consider the future plans Lee might have in store for the mountainous areas and those downstream of rivers/ogrges in the interior/mountainous/hilly areas of the SE and mid-Atlantic.


LONGER RANGE FOR FLORIDA: Going into this week the forecasts are calling for increasing rain chances as soon as Sunday. So far, that appears to be feasible. Beyond Sunday or Monday (when they might decrease a bit)...it becomes increasingly uncertain since much will be contingent upon the future path of Lee. 


 The GFS has been very consistent though with regard to total rainfall over the next 6 days, with highest totals being near SE Florida in Dade, Broward, and Southern Palm Beach Counties, with another area along the Barrier Islands of Brevard. (Nothing like the rainfall totals that will continue to occur along the Northern Gulf Coast and along the future track of by then Post-Lee ,which will likely be addressed as "Tropical Depression Lee" for quite a while...so might as well get used to it now). 


It is not completely certain if even half of that rainfall over Florida will even be from thunderstorms. Reason being, very warm mid-level air is forecast to wrap around the system..decreasing low level lapse rates...it'll probably be fifty fifty..with most of the rainfall in those locations due to near east coast sea breeze convergence in the noon-sunset time frames. Moisture is never forecast to be far removed from Central Florida and never over far South Florida.  Only the North Half of the state might have a few days of respite from rain chances as we head toward Thursday..but even that might be relatively short lived in the scheme of things once Lee is fully out of the picture and a new page can be turned on the day by day calendar for September.  

For today, not going to say much about Katia. As if Lee weren't enough, the future of this storm is a bit uncertain when it comes to intensity and track. The storm will be moving into a less shearing environment, but also by that time once it gets north of the latitude it will be moving into less favorable ocean energy. This might not have any bearing of the strength of the storm. For now, it is best to focus closer to home, because whatever happens with the Lee-scapades will indirectly have an effect on the future course of Katia in 3-5 days and beyond,

Tropics in a Quid Pro Quo with Sub-Tropics Next 5 Days

Sunrise Thursday Morning Along the 700mb Trough Axis Which Now Lies across South Central Florida this Friday morning.  This means zero rain chances for North Central/NE Florida Through At least  Saturday

Change of Pace Post in Lieu of the Norm. Reason? Negotiations between the System in the Gulf (Depression vs. Sub-Tropical Depression vs Storm vs. Sub-Tropical Storm "Lee")...at hand. Until there is a hand shake or a victor in the arm wrestling match (big difference), if ever, the forecast for all of North Central and most of South Central Florida remains up in the air at best. Only in the next 36-48 can it be deemed feasible to project into the future, especially with even short term model disagreement.


GULF: Based on latest surface observations, winds well removed the surface low circulation of the depression are approaching Tropical Storm Strength. Whether or not the Hurricane Center will thus name the system today (if ever) is unknown. However, I do not see the system ever being anything beyond sub-tropical at this point. Namely because the system developed off of a combination of the persistent thunderstorm activity that had been off SW Florida, combined with a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean, and then enhanced by upper level jet stream wind divergence and mid-level vorticity (the later two are subtropical features). Now, if the jet stream winds that are currently in place (and are by the way what is causing the rain fall now)...were to breakaway..and the system gains a tighter surface circulation and banding around the core...that's a whole new ball game. However, not one model has shown that process to come to fruition. 


Either way, the system is causing high alert along the Louisiana Gulf Coast since some factors are in play either way for POTENTIAL high rainfall totals accumulating..sometimes in a short period of time...mainly anywhere along the immediate coast (and I -10) but also for all of the 'lower-boot' portion of the state.  


Note that there is a difference between the words 'potential' and 'will'.  Because the system is in a  'quid pro quo', which models does one lean toward? The tropical ones or the standard North America Models? How are those models treating this system?  In the short term, most rainfall in Louisiana today appears will be limited to I-10 in direct relation to this system, but other rainfall..maybe heavier, could fall as a result of more non-tropical dynamics associated with what one looks for in thunderstorm activity...a moisture gradient, a mid-level trough,and an unstable atmosphere...non of which are tropical factors (at least, not as far as Tropical Storms are concerned).  

Surface low is in red. Strongest wind is well removed from center (sub-tropical). Red is the mid-level trough axis. This axis extends SE ward toward Lake Okeechobee today. Dry air is north of that trough with high pressure as shown by the blue zig zag//high pressure also exits into the NE Quadrant of Florida today through tomorrow. This analysis is showing 40 kts but latest observations I've seen show only measured just below that. Either way, it could become a named system. The main point is, do not focus on the CENTER of circulation...it holds no bearing as to where the brunt of the system's impacts will be focused. 

    


TODAY/TOMORROW: For Florida, rain chances are limited to South Florida, and even there they could decrease with time. Thus, Florida's weather is also being impacted by this system..for better or for worse..  With time, extended outlooks are calling for worse by Monday...but even that cannot be stated with 100% guarantee (although based on the NAM and GFS it could). Must see what  this system does first...


TROPICS: Outside of the Gulf, there is still Katia.Not writing this system off as one of those "fish storms". There is another hand shake going on further from home...and no one there is eager to agree either...looks more like a stare down for now though.  A trough is developing  east of the U.S..that being, the 700mb trough extending across South Florida this morning extends back to the NE into this area which is being watched for further tropical development, although at this point it looks unlikely...this morning that is.  The same trough is what runs across or near I-10.  It appears Katia will by pass this trough..which leaves the next one to curve the storm away from the U.S.  BUT, that trough might get hung up at its southern end in the Southeast States. Why? Because of what is going on in the Gulf...back to square one. It sounds confusing if one doesn't have the mental  picture and the process envisioned:

This is a  GFS forecast for early Monday. Note how broad the gulf system is..and is never 'cut off' and on its own. Most impacts will be to the east of the center of this mid-level low . If this goes on Katia will be steered away as mid next week approaches

From  the looks of future development of Katia,  it is now in a shearing environment, but that looks to end in the next day after which point the storm could form into a monster. From that point, it could take on a life of its own and all models are out the window.


Thus, a lot of what happens in the next 1-4 days could have long lasting and major impacts to the weather anywhere east of the Mississippi 7-10 days down the line in regard to the depression or eventual storm. For now, watch out if it begins to fade off toward the SSW..this could have a big impact on the steering of Katia way down the line later next week.


Big surf looks like a given for the SE U.S. Coast come this time next week though...


Here's a case in point. The GFS has been trending for Katia to become a major hurricane poised toward Florida, but then being caught up in yet the next trough . So far, though, the system is forecast by the main models to eventually steer clear of the U.S.  I'm seeing only two scenarios..either it stays further south and runs toward the South Half Of Florida (if something toward the Navy model occurs, which so far does not quite seem to be the case) or the straits, or it curves and does not impact anyone directly. (which has been the preferred option by the pros including the NHC I believe).


One other note: Not to be short-changed, watch out anywhere up and down the Appalachians into Tennessee and North Carolina. The day too may come for flooding rains toward the second week of September if the GFS and ECMWF verify.      

Word of the Storm Season - "Hype"

Broad scale rotation under a developing thunderstorm on Tuesday. This storm is being viewed near the Beach from the SSE in Cape Canaveral looking toward the North Atlantic Ave / A1A Triangle Area . The white colored clouds near the top were moving from left to right, while the dark core contained recurrently developing updrafts tags which kept appearing from behind the taller tree to the right in this image 

Believe that a sort of Shear Funnel Cloud (at a minimum) formed yesterday not as a result of the area pictured above, but of one that followed this one as it moved off to the ENE. The second area of similar nature developed under outflow from this area as it moved away..and internal mechanisms drove wind speed shear (but light)..in such a way to form a substantial but very brief funnel cloud. As I stood out there, the sound took on that of a rushing ocean overhead..as it then moved toward the North and toward this formation above. Officially, the event was not recognized as a funnel cloud in print. Immediately pictured below (from video) is what appeared from over my head (to the left of the palm tree)...moments earlier, it sounded like the sea shore was immediately upon myself.  It was just as much what was HEARD as it was that which was SEEN. 

 

TODAY: Not a whole lot to say for today. The same theme as the past two days applies. That being, rain can occur wherever extensive cloud cover does not take over, or where cloud breaks can occur prior to 5pm.


That being said, the only impetus to create showers/storms is a slightly unstable atmosphere and a developing but light east coast sea breeze. Where the bigger cloud breaks occur, which currently is far SE Florida and near I-4, thunderstorms can form, although they could form elsewhere, time permitting for cloud breaks. Otherwise, the 700mb trough axis sank a bit south overnight (it was over Central yesterday). Models earlier indicated it would lift back to central, but so far that has yet to be seen.

The red line is the forecast position on the RUC earlier for the trough axis. However, the trend I believe is for it to become more ill defined than previously thought. Suspect it might break off into the Gulf off the SW Florida coast, with the remaining boundary becoming more inactive with time. Note the Jet Circulation. Dry air encompasses that region in Northern Gulf. These two components have been presented for potentially a reason working into the weekend and next week (see "Tropics"). 

Divergence is occurring further from shore today, having less enhancing effect on storm development today. Additionally, the winds are spreading mid-high level clouds across the South Half of the State. Thunder could occur most anywhere, but most likely will occur inland from the sea breeze and north of the Beach Line. Other areas of thunder could occur over far SE Florida. In between, renegade showers can form most any time, mostly near the 700mb trough axis, although there to...cloudiness might be the rule. Best spot for thunder in orange.

BEYOND: It looks like rain chances will decrease going into the Weekend as 'something' attempts to get more organized in the Gulf of Mexico...with little in triggering mechanisms and no focal points, the most preferred area by Friday should be along the Central interior and west toward much of South Florida, mainly west side.


TROPICS: What tangled webs do models foretell?   Plenty.  What will likely be Hurricane Katia (if not already) is forecast by long range models to miss the U.S. because of a trough of low pressure which is forecast to be in place just east of the east coast extending into Florida by the time the storm arrives. However, the storm has to curve more toward the NW with time during the next 3 days or so first....


Thus, we'll cross that bridge if need be when the time arrives. So far, it appears the biggest impact would be to Bermuda, but that to can change. 


What is of greater interest is what can be happening in the Gulf in the meantime.  Been preaching to deaf ears it seems about this one for some time now..perhaps it will finally be Reckoning Day . Hype this.


The GFS for 3 consecutive runs has developed a hearty low pressure area anywhere between the SW Gulf toward the Texas Coast all the way over toward Louisiana. At this time, if that is to occur, it would be because of the mid-level cut off 700mb trough remnant, combining with that persistent area of reoccurring thunderstorms off the Florida SW Coast (pictured above), combined with another area of low pressure in the western Carribean.  Further enhanced by the jet circulation is some form as shown in the previous image above.


If a low does develop per the GFS it would be south of Louisiana in general. It could hang out in that location for quite some time until it has reason to move. Do not believe it will have much of an impact anywhere west of the  Mississippi River, although coastal showers and thunder is not completely to be ruled out in the interim as far as Texas.  For three runs, the GFS has this organized area of low pressure meander until the next continental trough comes along to the north..at which point the low is forced NE ward into Florida somewhere along the NW coast.  Hype this.


If this were to occur, we'd be looking at either a Sub-Tropical Storm Lee..or perhaps a Neutercane Named "Lee"...which per chance is a name that can be used for both males and females. (the term Neutercane was discontinued for the very reason that it sounded sexist, as if Hurricanes have a gender anyway.) That argument would hold water if we:
  A) called them Her-icanes, Sheicanes, He-icanes, or Himicanes as the list is run down each season.; or  B) gave them non-sexist names to begin with like like Giggles, Scratchy, Boomer, or Pumpkin. Hype this.


At this point, it should be sub tropical if the GFS is to be believed, because: 1) it would form off a remnant low pressure trough from the mid-level 2) It could also form as a hybrid off a mesoscale convective complex like that off SW Florida, or 3) it could form along that deformation zone shown in that image above the immediate one above; and lastly 4) it would have jet stream level winds running through it...a big no no for the purest Hurricane at heart. Hype this.

 .

    

Seat of The Pants Forecasts and Weather Anomalies Rule 2011. Is More on the Way?

No Doubt, Another Fly By The Seat Of Your Pants Forecast Day. All in all
the synoptic scale pattern has not changed much from yesterday. There is more moisture available and it is deeper further north toward I-10 on the east Side.  Again, high clouds from storms over the Gulf as seen in the radar overlay above are spreading anvils (high clouds) across all of the South half of the state. South Florida seems to be really socked in with some other sorts of clouds on visible satellite imagery as well...yet even term models reflect good thunderstorm and rain shower coverage in this area later today 

(Refer to "What's Up?" further down to jump to the subject topic of today's post).

WHO MESSED WITH SUMMER? : Another picture book day to describe what is a non-typical summer day (one of many already and more to come through mid-September for the most part). We have definitely entered a period both pre- and post-Irene of mid-level troughs and tropical systems, surface boundaries and periods of the jet stream near by. In a sense, this is still the wet season but it is not the typical....:


 "high pressure Atlantic ridge axis across Florida with sunny mornings and light winds aloft followed by sea breeze convergence somewhere over the interior late in the day synoptic scale set up we normally have this time of year." 


 It appears that all ended when the pattern that evoked Irene to takes its run up I-95 (nearly) was the end of it.


 WHAT'S UP? It's as if summer packed its bags and went on vacation to Canada in tow (in some places like Florida even though it is still warm here)...leaving behind only the necessary items to keep the house in working order. That being, to keep the rain chances in check (but created by different mechanisms other that sea breeze convergence) such as troughs at different levels (that belong much further north ) and tropical like activity. The Old Salt of the Sea has come in to tend to matters while summer is sabbatical,  and he's messing around with the neat and tidy order that was once in place.  Actually, for this time of year it is not all that unusual, but I'd expect to find it more like in about two weeks from now. Will summer return ever for 2011? Yes, but modified. 


One of those self-improvement camps I guess was in order, since very little of this summer has ever been typical. This was long ago noted to be possible with the high pressure over Texas. This all began a LONG time ago, before the implications could be seen, felt, or experienced.  What was the first sign? The blizzard by Chicago, the Super Outbreak Part II Tornado Onslaught in the Deep South, or the one in North Carolina?  The heat wave in Texas that morphed, spread, shrankn and shifted around the southern tier of states? The lack of tornadoes west of I-35 in tornado alley this year? The supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes in North Central California while tornado alley was in a tornado drought? The deep snow in the Sierras in July?..Must have left a lot out. 


 Point is...expect more odd ball, out there anomalies are yet to come beyond the latest, the Irene event in Vermont (albeit created by rain..but it was odd ball nonetheless). 


TODAY: Same factors to leave things up for grabs in regard to rain chances. Best chance is where the least cloud cover exists, which is near and north of I-4. This is shown below. But other areas could see rains as well. In short, the normal summer rules do not apply today. Looking for the same factors as yesterday, but with slower steering and perhaps a sea-like breeze along the coast. There is a mid-level trough in place across I-10 or just south of there, and this will sink to South Florida going into Friday, but never completely washes out ..if not retrogrades a bit going into next week. It might even disappear off the charts for a while, but it will be back. 

Watching the areas closest to the mid level trough in black. SE Florida could still have many showers and storms with an east coast sea breeze, especially if the clouds can break up a bit...these are not drawn in...

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The mid-level trough axis will sink a bit further south, so another day or two of tricks in the forecast are in store as it looks now. But, rain chances will be decreasing from North to South with time to some degree as more of an easterly flow moves in behind that boundary.  For a short time. 


Note: this boundary is also working into the SW Gulf where storm development is expected there as well. Whether it will be considered 'fully tropical' is yet to be determined..but the signal is clear. A low pressure area is in the making from the western Caribbean into the SW Gulf and north around the Texas to Louisiana Coastal areas.

By Saturday, the 700mb trough pictured in the previous images is located just north of the Florida Straits. Rain chances continue at their highest in this location and northward along the west side of the state for a day or two. Note the huge low pressure circulation in the mid-levels in the Gulf. A surface low could form here eventually...and is likely. But, if history repeats itself as it often does..it could take almost a week or more to do so.

What is shown above is the broad low pressure circulation in the Gulf. The GFS eventually closes off one or even two surface lows. So far, they do not look completely organized, but would not be surprised if a tropical depression or even a storm is decided to be located there by the end of the first week of September.  

GFS for September 5th. Note that huge storm to the right. That is the GFS forecast for Major Hurricane Katina. A lot at this point in time is contingent upon whether Katina will even take this track in the first place. Per the GFS, the low in the Gulf gets caught up in the same trough shown in red along the eastern sea board..and piggy backs behind Katina...across Florida.

 

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Katina was realized early this morning. Model guidance is in close agreement through days 3-5. The storm is taking the path of least resistance where sheer is the weakest. The warmest waters are south of the storm now, but it will be entering warmer waters in about 3 days.  At this point, the best thing to watch will be its track during this time frame. ..especially near the end of the period. ..as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. At time, it is not expected to impact those islands..but to begin a stair step curve to north of Puerto Rico with time. This is not set in stone...The image above shows where the storm will eventually end up on the 5th of September. Looks big...don't want to be messing with that one..so keep your fingers crossed.  But......

Satellite and SAL (Saharan Air Layer) composite...the drier air around  the storm is to decrease around day 3 or 4 as the storm enters warmer waters which are now just south of the forecast tracks shown.

 
...BUT...look what the GFS brings into the picture further on down the line...for one week later.


This system is forecast to move west and under the high pressure that would build in behind the passage of Katia...at this point in time..both the future track and especially this depiction are purely fictional...but it shows what can get the weather office's dander up in arms while the rest of the world is kicking back in the easy chair on weekday nights downing brews and eating Bon Bons.

Thunder and Showers South of Ormond, 'Katina' Incubating?

THE TROUGH OF IRENE IS BREAKING AWAY, PROGRESSIVELY LEAVING FLORIDA
IN A "STATE' OF LIMBO BY LATER TODAY/MiD-EVENING

FLORIDA TODAY: A bit of another conundrum forecast today, no things are set in stone by a long shot. The mid-level trough associated with Irene's Absorption is beginning to 'cut-off- as high pressure attempts to build in from the west toward the Mid-Atlantic. It still has a full 24 hours before its influence will be exerted further north where some strong storms are possible along the coastal mid-Atlantic. Near Florida, the cut off process is reflected by a weak surface circulation as shown above in the 'actuals', also reflected in short term model RUC.  Dry air is trying to encroach into northern portions of North Central. South Central and South are fully entrenched in moisture. Early start to convection has spread debris clouds to the east coast, so the forecast for the south east side of the state today is up in arms. Can thunder form with the cloudiness? i'm thinking no, but giving them the benefit of the doubt for now that outflow from activity further west could erupt some showers and maybe thunder close to the coast of Palm Beach County and South. Should mention, the Panhandle region and most areas along I-10 are going to start running into a big fire danger/drought situation if things do not improve there. It looks like they are almost already starting to see the end of the thunderstorm season, if not for good. High pressure will be building in later in the week, and it is dry.

NOTE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH. The least amount of early cirrus, and where moisture is most ample, or ample enough, has the best chance of thunder today, some could be more active (stronger) along the region where the mid-level moisture changes from completely suitable to marginally questionable to support storms. The other problem further north is that with less cloud coverage inland, there is a better chance of a late sea breeze/river breeze (which never occurred yesterday). There is less near paper think cirrus in the sky today far East Central, so the heating in this area could produce a river breeze after 4pm. Sea breeze/river breezes will remain east of US1. Thus this begs the next question. Could stronger storms form along and East of US1 north of Vero Beach? I do not think they will be strong enough to exert that sort of influence today...so for now..no.

IN SUMMARY: Warm today with highs a few tics above normal before any rain approaches..north of South Florida and away from increasing showers and thunder going into early afternoon. Rains should start to move in by noon time from the SSW-SW Central/North Central. Some areas might see rain more than once due to earlier onset, especially inland and toward the west side.  If heavier storms develop more toward the interior, coastal areas will see mostly lighter rains and isolated thunder. All areas becoming cloudy by mid - late afternoon south of a Daytona.  


The sketchy area to also watch, although not highlighted in the graphic is the Flagler/North Volusia coastal areas. This area will be most influenced by dry, mid-level air in a region of strongest down draft CAPE (because of the drier air). Often, the drier air inhibits storm formation altogether because it is often associated with warm air as well in the mid-levels. That might not be the case today as the afternoon progresses. Hopefully  it has been made clear that nothing is a given today north of Lake Okeechobee.South Florida? I see what models are depicting, but not so sure the rains showing up in high numbers won't amount to clouds in high numbers instead, especially if more activity redevelops toward SW Florida.


TROPICS: No way Jose', you're history. Literally. Meanwhile, the bigger area of interest is SW of the Cape Verdes off the SW Coast of Africa where a depression was determined to exist as of 5AM. This area is large, and encased between two areas of drier SAL air (Saharan Air Layer) as seen below. The forecast track is show. This system will become most likely Katina within 24-36 hours or so. 

FORECAST TRACKS with the NHC track in white dead center. The main players are along and NORTH of the forecast track, whereas the 'others' are south of the track. THIS IS IMPORTANT. We see dry air on  either side of the track, so in order for the storm to sustain itself there is only one way to go for the next 36-72 hours. If it goes the more SOUTHERN route, the chances of Katina becoming a Major hurricane are much better. Sea Surface Temperatures are warmest in that direction as indicated by latest imagery this morning. Perhaps that is because of upwelling from Irene, although the storm was not strong over this area while it crossed here as only a wave or depression. It could become a major hurricane, though, either way.

For kicks, included are two storm tracks from 1964. Back to back big ones Cleo and Dora.
Note that they originated near the same area. Recall, the original forecast track of Irene for a good while was for the storm to hit Florida, but it never got far enough south and west into the Caribbean to perform like Cleo.

CLEO. IRENE  FORMED INTO A HURRICANE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND TOWARD THE NE TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DORA. NOTE: If Dora takes the more southern track, across the warmer waters, it could  track under the next trough of low pressure that models are depicting in the long range, to take the storm out to sea before impacting anyone.  Thus, it will be a critical time when this storm becomes well developed. If it becomes a hurricane earlier than expected, the chances of a more southern track increase. After that, there is no way to know what will transpire.

  
For more kicks, forecast tracks out in time. Forecasts only, not gospel. Look how much Irene's track in the forecast changed every 6 hours until that was set in stone. A lot will depend on what happens THROUGH the next 72-96 hours.  

"The Chainsaw Massacre" Begins Irene's Downgrade - "Florida Antics Part Deux"?

TROPICAL STORM IRENE NOT LOOKING SO "TROPICAL"
- DRAINED HER PURSE IN MANHATTAN 

SYNOPSIS/SCOPE/GENERAL OVERVIEW:  "Synopsis" is the meteorologically preferred term for "here's what's happening around a big area at many levels of the atmosphere"... Synopsis takes up less key strokes. 


Tropical Storm Irene is looking very extratropical this morning as it continues to get absorbed into the troughs/front along the eastern seaboard. The 'Storm' continues to move NNE-NE and should clear NYC shortly. Irene likely encoutered the 30-50kts of shear I was seeing yesterday along the PA/NY border. Clean up time begins where electricity as gas supplies allow. Rev'n up the chain saws and generators while rainfall in what I'd guess varies from 6 "-16" soak already moisture laden soil,  flooding streets, swelling rivers, and turning basements into swimming pools ..awful stuff to mess with. But don't forget, it still has New England to reign...but Irene is handing over the crown..(see Tropics). Folks well up in New England will have their fair share of high rainfall totals, flooding, beach erosion, and downed trees (power outages).

LOCALLY:  Tough forecast. It would be very easy to write for all intensive purposes that there is a very low chance of rain today.  The atmosphere in the mid-levels is quite dry, winds are unidirectional, possibly no sea breeze. How could it rain today!!? 


Yet, there has been persistent showers and storms well out west in the Gulf along an axis of sorts that has been regenerating heavy showers near the Tampa Area to just offshore. There is some big ones way out in the Gulf along this axis.  Thus, we present DOOR NUMBER !.


DOOR #1: Mostly dry, hot with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs (mainly NE Florida/I 10)...fast moving isolated , small showers maybe becoming thunder after moving off shore from St. Augustine to Miami, but the best chance of rain being South Florida in Broward, Dade, Martin, and Southern Palm Beach County later far East Central IBrevard). 


Could leave it at that, and perhaps should. But being curious as a cat:


DOOR #2:  Then again...some pictures might help in vying for another option. Using some current conditions and extrapolating these conditions with future projections of the trough associated with Irene...there is a bit of a hypothetical/conditional chance of a much broader expanse of showers and some thunder with the help of a little pro-active imagination....

700MB (Roughly 10,000 feet above):

700 mb (10,000ft) Analysis reveals best moisture far South Florida (green line and south). Note  several weak troughs (blue) embedded in the mean flow...these are all part of a MUCH larger trough extending down the East Coast from Irene...and on into the NW Caribbean.

The mean (main) trough is shown by the one black solid line (above). This could buckle as Irene moves away...allowing that moisture over far South Florida (Green Line)..to work northward. Vorticity (energy) is also associated with these troughs.

INSTABILITY:

Moderate instability exists way out in the GULF (orange, note values in the 4000 range)...for comparison, we never see much more than 500 in the winter, even with severe weather . And the higher the better (for active weather).  These values are constantly being transported over the peninsula south of the mid-level mean trough axis and jet level axis as well.

So, there is possible mid-level moisture transport northward as Irene also lifts north as shown in the first image (remember, they are both to be within the same broader scheme trough up and down the east coast). There is also some moderate instability on a train track from the Gulf across the state...but the mid-level is still going to be a bit dry even if it can work north to I-4 by late today.  

THEN THERE IS THE JET STREAM:

See captions:  Blue is the jet stream level trough. The troughs aloft are in roughly the same location. Winds of 35 kts on the jet which for summer is not shabby in Florida.  As the trough approaches just a bit more today, forecasts show the winds increasing another 10 kts..especially over  Central Florida, but divergence (purple lines)..also increases. No divergence was analyzed at the time I saved the image other than west of the Keys. Watching the area between the two (three) purple arrows) cartooned in...where divergence could form , aiding in upward lift from the mid-levels. Note the black arrow along the east coast.

DOOR #2
1. Possible mid-level northward transport of moisture from South Florida as Irene lifts North
2. Continuous stream of moderate instability, advected by prevailing WSW winds at nearly all levels
3. Divergent jet stream aloft;
4. And, just maybe..a side shore/river upwind component at the surface along the east coast as the pressure gradient just above the surface decreases (which allows the sea breeze to try to develop). However, I do not believe this will be a sea breeze (but could be in part, especially far SE Florida), rather a moniker.


 When added, the vectors of a SE Sea-breeze with the decreasing 2000ft wind vector magnitude...which should weaken today...the sum of the vectors..which are indicated by an arrow of direction AND strength..adds up to a South to SSE winds..see black arrow in image above. 

DOOR #2  - "Sum Total of all the Parts" Visualization:

See Captions: Note the blue area up and down the west coast...I added the brighter blue one. This is low level moisture convergence which means little now. But as the day wears on..the mass convergence ..like water backing up against a dam..could climb the wall and become DEEP moisture convergence...and when or IF the damn breaks..abetted by the assumption that moisture will work up from the south...the result would be showers. Add that vector in (shown in black again)...with divergent flow aloft, PLUS the instability...we have showers and thunder..mainly East of I-95 north of Ft. Pierce to near South Volusia.  If this does occur, outflows could extend showers near the coast up to at least St. Augustine..with thunder as well (not shown here) to DAB.

REALIZING: The Above extrapolation into the future, if even one of the fictional factors does not fall into place, much of what is depicted in the image will not transpire. On the other hand, if they come together, along with some upper level energy which will be a given considering that something is driving those showers with some thunder to form near Tampa (they can be seen in this image..it has a radar over lay in it)...rain fall chances could go from 20-30 percent to 50-60 percent. with thunder in orange as well as shown.

IN SUMMARY:  "A word of the wises; Be prepared for Surprises"

TROPICS: Enough already. Moving on.  No way, Jose! Yes, Tropical Storm Jose was crowned heir to Irene..or rather..they share. Irene 's not going down easy! (just ask someone in New England today).... Queen?,  New 'England'?..Hmm, ...  The storm is not all so far from Bermuda actually, but it does not appear it will do all that much. Not a US (U.S.) threat.  Watching two big areas:


1. The western and central Caribbean into the Southern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
2. A newer area that has emerged off the coast of Africa.


Neither area poses a threat, but both hold potential. Recall, the Gulf has been capped and heated since early spring. The problem therein though lies, is that that was likely the onset of the High Pressure over Texas. Thus, any development into the SW Gulf would head toward Brownsville or South..unless it can form south and east of the Mississippi River. Jamaica could be under the gun from several tropical waves though..and maybe a depression could emerge off the western tip of Cuba in the next week.


The next name storm is eerily, KATIA. (hmm...they really should have thought that one through).

SAL (Saharan Air Layer) shows much LESS reds and oranges than 10 days ago. Note that big white area coming off Africa..with little to zero dry air ahead of its westward motion. Also note, I'm detecting a weakly cyclonic circulation in the makings in the Bay of Campeche toward Jamaica...additionally, the base of the previously mentioned trough extending from Irene bottoms out SOUTH of the Florida Panhandle. You can see the thunder activity out there in this image. Central Florida lies along that same mid-level sector today (Sunday)...could that act as an impetus for showers and storms today and especially Monday/Tuesday time frame?  

  

'Queen of Mean' Irene Backlashes Mid-Atlantic - Florida Toasts

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGE OF IRENE SUPERIMPOSED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGE (the reds/oranges/yellows are dry air). Not the abrupt change in dry to moist along the far north side of Irene's "Kingdom")

TODAY: There's no escaping the information related to Hurricane Irene today when turning on the TV. Folks along the Mid-Atlantic Coast through New England are hopefully prepared for what extremely heavy rainfall combined with strong wind, beach erosion, flooding, and power outages, and storm surge offers in their respective areas. The bathymetry of coastal inlets, outlets, bays, points, and islands will have everything to do with which locations are most heavily impacted by storm surge and direct wind. Either way, the rainfall totals will ultimately be highest where the combination of razor sharp  rain streaks occur repeatedly over the same areas - combined with the persistent, broad scale rain shield.  I would not be surprised to see rainfall totals higher than current estimates, especially heading into coastal New England and over and down toward Baltimore Harbor...as Irene will be merging with the frontal boundary and mid-level trough. Those effects have yet to be realized at this point.    The saving grace for residents further inland at this point is that the current track and forecast (as depicted)..is toward the NNE. But for residents in New England it spells "A-B-I-G-D-E-A-L".


LOCALLY: The peripheral effects of Irene are still being sensed over Florida, which is still encased within the broader mid and upper level circulations of Irene's Storm Machine System.  Wind today will remain W-WSW...with high temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs and high dew-points resulting in heat indices in the 105-115F range if not much higher.(per the officials, the 115F is the writers own doing). 


Personally thinking that along the east side of the state, especially East Central to NE Florida  could well see temperatures over 100F. Anticipating possibly seeing the thermometer warmer than I have ever (that is 101F). Dew-points will be running high as well. The saving grace, it looks a bit 'milky' out there at my place...very thin cirrus could preclude the record break. Believe Vero Beach stands the best chance of seeing an official record be broken at a reporting station...but far and wide, other records could go down..DAB in second perhaps. 


The heat and moisture (at the lowest level), especially over North Central, are reflected well by the instability of the atmosphere which at this moment (analyzed) and later today (forecast) will be extreme, with Convective Available Potential Energy approaching 7000 j2kg2 units and lifted indices nearly -9C. This is extremely unstable..but its usage, if any, is conditional. Temperatures above that layer are not all that cold. If there is no trigger to set the energy off...it's just a powder keg without a match. That will be the case today.  There are some matches within striking distance indicated  on model guidance though (vorticity) ...but even so, with temperatures aloft being only marginally accommodating  precipitation today will be in isolated pockets if it is to occur at all (it is in isolated fashion over South Florida and parts of the Keys right now since some cool air aloft is present).     


The best chance of rain/thunder today is where both moisture in the mid and lower levels can be in place exactly coincident at the time some upper level energy passes over head. Timing of BOTH of these factors is sporadic, and guidance is nearly useless since with ever hourly run the two factors shift around in both location and amount. Thus, it's best to run with low end rain chances..but some folks will likely get wet today. 


The graphic depicts the most likely areas this might transpire any time over South Florida from the  current time and further north heading into the afternoon through dark. Both areas should dry out sufficiently aloft for no rain chance after sunset.

A Shower could occur any where to the south (right) of the green arrow. Thunder could occur South Florida earlier as some remaining cool air aloft is in place. That is forecast to pull out by mid afternoon; however, I've observed bad track records in guidance in regard to arrival and departure of temperature aloft variations. Also shown here, is a batch of showers and thunderstorms that pulled off the East Coast early this morning which are associated with a moisture pocket and energy. Most of this formed off shore. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY: These two days look quite similar, but moisture will increase a bit. Do not expect it will be quite as hot  because there should be more cumulus clouds in the sky to offset any prolonged direct, unadulterated sun beams striking earth.  There is a better chance of rain over the East Half of the state from mainly DAB and south..but JAX area could get in on the game as well.  Most (but not all) activity will form toward the Eastern Interior and move well offshore...most thunder should not occur until this activity has moved offshore, but that is not set in stone.


TUESDAY: Irene's impacts and her 'territory' of bizarre August weather will lose its reign since the storm will now be north of the lower 48. Moving on to conquer new land.  Sea breezes should form by noon but remain fairly close to the coast. Temperatures return to seasonable norms as does thunderstorm coverage. Some storms on Tuesday could be "strong' in anticipation of a departing jet stream streak of winds well overhead aiding in upper level lift combined with sea breeze convergence in the low leve near the east coast  sea breeze boundary.  


WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: The trough of low pressure that is located north of the state and across the Deep South today will have sunk south and  be broken off, drifting into the North Central Gulf, as high pressure builds in from the west behind it.  Although very diffuse, this boundary could act as a source of mid-level moisture convergence across much of the state.  Winds resume an easterly component but become quite light both aloft and at the ground. One could argue for late morning to noon time showers/thunder near the east coast working west during the afternoon...with more showers possible close to where the trough is hung up, which appears will be close to dead central. The pattern described above might wash out by Friday, by which point we've reached the end of model reliability.


TROPICS: Watching in days to come both the Gulf and Atlantic.  Already indicated, potential for low latitude tropical waves to pass well south of the state through the Western Caribbean  toward the Yucatan. ..keeping in mind...believe that although the cut off 700mb trough mentioned previously over the Gulf might not be depicted in models, experience says that energy associated with it will linger and wait for something to trigger upon...at which point it will be revealed. 


Thus, watch the Gulf and the Bay of Campeche (where the first action could occur).  Also watching the Atlantic along the remnant boundary to  ignite as either a tropical or sub-tropical system as well.  What else could be  rolling across the Atlantic from a tropical wave that rolls of  near the Cape Verdes, abetted by the West African Jet?  Peak of Hurricane Season time.  

Pre-Irene. Two Sky Lords Converse 

Irene's Darkest Hours To Shine Over the Weekend While Florida Bastes

GENERAL TRACK OF IRENE SINCE THURSDAY. Only a small chance of rain in Florida today as shown. Anything other than a shower (and maybe even thunder), could occur  mainly NE Central very late today if a vorticity lobe rotates around Irene in the mid-levels and interacts with the remnant moisture remaining in this location. It may simply prolong the cloud cover though. 

TODAY: Hurricane Irene remains a Cat 2 hurricane as of noon today with winds around 90 Kts or in the 105 - 110mph range.  No longer forecast to become a Major Hurricane, which will not make much of a difference to anyone in the path .  Little change in strength is anticipated as the storm approaches the coast of North Carolina with passport already in spiral band for the Canadian Border by sometime Monday. Recovery efforts in Florida are underway as residents put umbrellas back in the rack (some were never required). Surfs up, for a while longer. The waves came up pretty high and across white,virgin refurbishment sand in Canaveral but never quite got up to the steps in the refurbishment zone. In a sense, it was costly damage, considering the man-hours spent to get the sand there in the first place.


Warnings are going are up as hurricane warning flags are hoisted  toward North Carolina and Virginia with more on the way up the coast as residents prepare for extremely heavy rainfall, strong winds (naturally), and torrential as well as prolonged rainfall , and beach erosion issues. This storm could go down in the Books a "Big" one in terms of cost. If folks are wise, few lives will be lost.    "Ive Seen Irene, I 've Met my Maker"...does not apply.


The storm will be meeting up with a mid-low level trough axis and become entwined partially with it. Between those two forces Irene will be abetted with its partner in Meteorological Warfare to continue her 'reigns' across the Eastern seaboard and adjacent Atlantic waters. Severe erosion, damaging winds to ocean fronts and other areas to a lesser degree, and widespread power outages due to downed trees (rooted in already very moist soil from rains in previous days) and flat out wind strength, as well as flooding caused merely by the rainfall totals will deal a  1-2-3-4 punch.

LOCALLY: After the above, it is a bit hard to find anything worth noting for this Friday in Florida.  It is all explained in the above image. Irene is moving away. There is still some energy rotating around the storm, and Florida remains joined at the hip with the system in the mid-levels. Any  mid-level energy to rotate around the storm has the potential to initiate rain or even thunder.  So, I checked out the possibilities. There is a vort (vorticity) lobe up north and some good cloud and rain cover associated with it. Timing would bring it in very late today or into tonight. It seems to be located in the red box, and timing brings it to East Central and NE Florida late today based on satellite animation. Otherwise, most of the area will be rain free with only a few light drops.  Do not believe, if it does rain, it will have anything to do with heating or instability (which is there)...but will be solely driven by corkscrewing rotation in the sky passing overhead...but wouldn't by pass plans based on this notion. More of a 'heads up, you never know' thing here today.


WEEKEND WEATHER: Looks to be breezy during the afternoons and very warm. Record or near record highs are possible, mainly in NE Florida but the areas along A1A that would normally receive a sea breeze are likely to set new records or come close as WSW of 10-20mph porevail. ...lighter evening and over night  


As noted before, we will never know the true extent of the warmth..because there are no official reporting stations along A1A other than Patrick AFB. Either way, expecting highs in the mid 90Fs most everywhere, maybe some upper 90Fs, and perhaps JAX can crack 100F. Numerical guidance I do not believe is quite on the bandwagon from what I've read, but either way it will be warm and mostly dry. So in that regard, heat indices (the 'feels like temperature') won't be all so bad.  Any extra moisture though than is currently indicated could give rise to a rain shower almost anywhere from late morning toward evening. Will have to keep tabs on this though..because even more moisture could result in thunder.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Irene will be departing after peaking over a Niagra Falls (eh..?)  and leaving a long trough down the U.S. East Side ..east of the Mississippi. Thus, all of these states will be indirectly impacted by the remnant trough in some form or another through Tuesday when it finally starts to break down.  I'm thinking it will leave a weak mid-level  circulation in place for some time to come..even as the lower levels adjusts.  Sea breezes possibly Monday close to the coast and thunder..same with Tuesday.


BEYOND: Going pretty far out in time now, but it looks like thunder will continue ..favoring interior and the west side for a day or two..after which point we are already a week out .


LONG RANGE: Watching the Gulf of Mexico, western near shore Atlantic, Bay of Campeche, and western Caribbean for potential tropical development. Indications are that the remnant trough of Irene could lay dormant across the Deep South, Florida, and the northern Gulf for a while. These boundaries are perfect ammo for future tropical cyclone development. Almost forgot, there is a depression well out in the Atlantic, but that one seems to have signed its own Death Certificate...waiting for processing.