Partly Sunny, Slightly Breezy, Warmer - A Few Showers

FLORIDA is on the far left of the morning visible satellite image. Low pressure area noted in red will remain nearly stationary today and drop a bit more toward the SW and W through Monday. Current position is roughly 700 miles east of Ormond Beach. By Wednesday it will generally be approximately 475 east of Cape Canaveral and will have weakened considerably by that time as it opens up and starts to lift north and merge with another area of low pressure moving off the NE U.S. to Nova Scotia.

TODAY: As expected, the atmosphere decoupled overnight where inland lows were in the lower 60s and mid-upper 50Fs with a north wind, whereas at the East Coast winds remained NE from Cape Canaveral south toward Pemproke Pines where overnight lows remained in the low 70Fs (and actually warmed after 2am from the upper 60Fs in some locations). Winds in Miami were even NW this morning as opposed to easterly. Sharp cap at 5000 ft will lift toward 7300ft after noon at which point clouds should freely cross from east to west across the state. Models and even the Mesoscale Analysis Page are worthless today in determining where and to what extent showers will occur, considering that showers are mostly occurring toward SE Florida early this morning despite strong Convective Inhibition and the inversion, since this activity is occurring underneath those factors and are thus very low topped  beneath the inversion.


THIS AFTERNOON: The subsidence inversion should lift  by noon at which point stronger winds around 2000 ft will attempt to work to ground level resulting in ENE-NE winds in the 15-22mph range with a few stronger gusts. Winds might actually be stronger toward the interior. Showers will be moving a little slower today, as will the cloud patches. Thus, there could be enough sunshine during those breaks for highs to reach near 80F from Southern Volusia and South and across the interior with mid-upper 70Fs further north and cooler jet closer toward I10 along the coast near JAX/St. Augustine.

Morning surface plot from Melbourne's Local Data Integration System shows northerly drainage flow under the low level cap. Green 'hatches' show where a sprinkle or brief shower could occur today at almost anytime, but most likely after 2pm. Winds offshore are 20-23mph, and those should work in by noon time and work across the state by early afternoon. Satellite image (above) shows no end to the patches of clouds. But, they will move a bit slower today per model guidance depiction of the winds at their level. Thus, big breaks with sun followed by some mostly cloudy skies, with some blue sky likely visible along the horizon in some direction at any given time except in the showers.

TONIGHT: Instant replay of rather benignly breezy conditions this afternoon with the 'gale'well offshore. The surface low well offshore will start to creep in a general W-WSW direction and begin to weaken later on Monday.  In the meantime, the Surface ridge which is driving down the entire eastern sea board will start to displace more toward the NE and begin to overlap the low pressure area, resulting in more ENE winds. Fog will be possible over the northwestern portions of the interior now that ample moisture will have translated across the state under the subsidence region aloft and as winds decouple overnight toward Ocala and west and south toward northern Polk. 


MONDAY: Overnight lows tonight along the east coast will remain in the 70Fs from Brevard and south under partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy skies at times. With the inversion lifting again toward noon time. Shower chances look minimal once again, but the chance does exist. Winds will replay with afternoons in the 'upper teens to twenties', but perhaps be just a few mph stronger during to just after peak heating.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The low pressure area should be at its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday and be quite broad..located generally 550 East of Cape Canaveral. As such, rain chances might increase Tuesday night into Wednesday along the coast at anytime. Not so sure the overnight lowering of the inversion will occur Tuesday night though, which would mean warmer overnight lows everywhere and mild conditions since winds would not decouple from the 2000 ft level.


THURSDAY: Front will be on the approach, with the high pressure sliver still wedged in between the approaching front of low pressures and the low offshore which will start to lift a bit north and open up.
Winds on Thursday with the proximity of the low will become NW with no rain chances. Cooler start to the day along the east coast without the onshore wind component (60Fs) but warmer everywhere with highs in the lower 80Fs with some mid-80Fs interior and SE Florida.


FRIDAY: It appears the front will go through sometime Friday afternoon, but timing remains up in the air. Small chance of showers along the front with a period of NW winds a little stronger right after FroPa. 


SATURDAY: Still up in the air regarding morning lows, since the GFS is oscillating back and forth between very very cool to 'not so bad'. Still favor the not so bad, with coastal lows in the mid-upper 50Fs and the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west. Dry.


SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Rapid airmass modification as winds swing around to N-NNE overnight Saturday. Sunday morning lows possibly in the 60Fs along the coast. Chance of a coastal shower from the Cape South as winds swing on shore, but too small to probably even put in an official forecast.


BEYOND: Smooth sailing in the temperature department for quite some time to come with 70Fs round the clock and low 80Fs during peak heating hours. Could start to see more coastal showers again, but not ready to make a call on that one, considering the details of even today are tough enough, let along over a week from now.

Florida East Coast To Narrowly Miss a Major Gale Event Through Sunday

FORECAST PER the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Model for 2pm today. Shown is surface wind forecast to be 50kts (close to 55mph) offshore the Carolinas due to pressure gradient winds between High Pressure from the Mid-Atlantic to New England and a broad surface low east of South Carolina. 

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: Strong winds are looming not too far away, but will never reach land to the magnitude at the coast of those offshore. Morning winds are NNW-NW and in the 5-12mph range to near calm. Latest radar shows very fast moving shower sprinkles not far offshore  awaiting for the surface low to move further to the ESE and the overnight inversion to break. Any clouds are limited to the immediate East Coast from Brevard and North and further inland toward NE Florida where the NE winds are starting to work in. These clouds will spread out with daytime heating after 11am or noon once the inversion starts to break.

7AM: Yellow shows morning cloud cover per infrared satellite image before the sun is fully risen. Current position of low and future first best guess track of this low through Wednesday afternoon. Rain chance impacts mostly from near DAB to Sebastian could spread South, especially on Wednesday with the only wind impacts (which will be minor) limited to north of Ft. pierce, and best chance/highest from Cape Canaveral to Playalinda Beach. (blue)

TODAY: The surface low will move ESE (East South East) through most of the day then begin to take a Southeast to South Curve tonight through Sunday. The morning inversion per forecast soundings will begin to break between 12pm -2pm andl lift from around 1200ft toward 7000 ft by 4pm. During this time, showers will work closer to shore and clouds will work SW into the interior as winds begin to pick up.


During this transition surface winds of 20-30kts per the RUC will swipe the east coast closet to Ormond Beach to Sebastian, with a big wind speed gradient between the A1A corridor and US1, sometime around 1-2pm. As of the latest RUC run of 6AM, winds of 30-34mph could impact the tip of the CAPE and very close to Port Canaveral from just east of due north. All models generally agree that rain showers will be possible after 2pm with a potential quick sprinkle before that time. The better overall chance of showers which could briefly make things 'wet' is  during a window between 3pm - 10pm, mainly along and east of I95 as far south as Ft. Pierce and north to St. August after which time the inversion lowers and the moisture depth becomes too shallow to support anything more than cloud cover.


Had things been set up with the low positioned another 200 miles further west this could have been a major east coast weather event. The other precluding factor reducing rainfall potential for this system is the cooling Atlantic Ocean waters since earlier in the month when the high rainfall totals occurred and waters were warmer and the fact that winds were unidirectional with height as opposed to veering

Overnight low at the Cape/PAFB was around 59-60F as anticipated but cooler all other locations. Today's high along the east coast will work through the lower toward mid 70Fs during the better cloud breaks prior to 2pm. Outside of the NE-and far Eastern South Central Portions other areas could get into the upper 70Fs toward lower 80Fs. More cloud cover could spread across a much larger portion of the state after 2pm until right around sunset.

TONIGHT: Winds decrease toward dark, especially inland as the inversion lowers and the stronger winds ride above the inversion. It still appears thus that winds at ground level will 'decouple' from the stronger winds at 2000 ft below the inversion,  and any sprinkles are restricted to just off the coast on the lee of the Gulf Stream after 10pm. By now, the air mass will have been modified due to flow off the ocean all day, with overnight lows near the coast in the upper 60Fs and cooler inland and west where winds will be more from the north under the decoupled atmosphere. Continued air mass modification through Wednesday with more onshore winds blowing across 70Fs ocean water temperatures each day from mid morning through sunset.

SUNDAY: So far, it looks like a replay with the inversion lowering at night and winds decoupling, then lifting toward 7500-8500ft feet from sunrise to noon allowing winds to work across the state. Winds on Sunday will not have the potential to be as strong as the low slowly tightens up a bit more, thus reducing the expanse of gradient winds. Low level flow becomes more diffluent as well, reducing rain chances. Coastal convergence with the land mass on the lee of the Gulf Stream as the low drops further south and opens up again toward afternoon should result in a more NE wind component up and down the east coast, with a chance of light fast moving sprinkles or showers and an expanding low level cloud deck across more of the state Sunday, and especially Monday as the low starts to retrograde more toward the W or WSW. At its furthest southern most latitude it should be offshore somewhere  east of Ft. Pierce to Sebastian inlet, but that position holds no bearing on sensible weather conditions (those that can be seen and experienced) for Floridians. Winds Sunday in the 15-22mph range, spreading inland during the day and lifting by late afternoon as the pressure gradient decreases.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Low slowly fills and winds slowly lower to the 12-20mph range in the afternoon, spreading across the state during the day as the low drifts in a general west direction well offshore somewhere between Melbourne Beach to just north of West Palm Beach. By now, after 3-4 days of onshore flow the air mass will have been moistened and temperatures modified, with overnight lows inland in the 60Fs to upper 50Fs and lows at the coast in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, cooler toward JAX/St. Augustine and perhaps by this time Ormond Beach as well due to  prolonged upwelling of deeper/cooler ocean waters from the offshore gale force winds.


WEDNESDAY: Frontal boundary will be on the approach while the surface and mid level low are at their closet position to Florida. The mid-upper level low will open into a trough and lift north as the approaching trough from the west is sensed and starst to become absorbed within the mean flow. Surface winds will back to the NNE-N or even NNW on Wednesday, by which time the fully modified air mass will warm into the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs most anywhere. 


Wednesday has the potential (at this point) to be a very showery day across the entire East Half of the State from sunrise to just about sunset with NNW-N winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon with the closer proximity of the trough, but this will be watched in coming days to see if things can be a bit nicer in that regard.


THURSDAY: It is odd to have a N-NNW wind PRECEDING an approaching cold front, when normally they would be from the south. As the front approaches it encounters the narrowing wedge of high pressure between the' by now' filled low/trough which lifts north and regenerates toward the coast of the NE states. This wedge will likely squeeze out much of the rains and possible storms that could occur into the Panhandle region as winds back to westerly Thursday afternoon while the front approaches. 


West winds with a high in lower 80Fs depending on timing of the front. The front could go through nearly dry for most of the Peninsula, based on the evidence of the GFS with each consecutive model run going from wet, to less wet, to barely wet, and now dry. Northwest winds Thursday night with fropa and FALLING temperatures.


FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The GFS is taking back what it read yesterday, and is now calling for a "break out the parkas from storage" yuckcast, early winter like (by Central/South Florida standards) day with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs state wide. Highs on Friday might remain in the 50Fs. Another cold morning Saturday with highs in the mid 60Fs. But again, the GFS could be over playing the temperatures. Might not put that on the check list of 'honey dos' though, just in case.


The sun has now been up long enough, here is the VISIBLE satellite image of the SE states as seen from a camera from space:

BEYOND: Rejoice. Long range has been very consistent from run to model run with developing easterly winds becoming SE if not SOUTH for a good 5 days if not longer with highs in the lower 80Fs during peak heating and lows in the 70Fs (which looks a bit warm to me)..more than likely mid-upper 60Fs and highs lower to mid 80Fs (South Florida).

Cold Front Clears State Tonight, Nor'Easter Conditions Through Monday

NOW at 7:15AM - Cold front progressing down the state with rain showers over the Tampa Area to Jax and into Ormond Beach near Daytona. Increasing clouds precede and accompany the cold front which have entered the Orlando Area while the Cape Area remains clear at sunrise.. Est'd front positions and times of those positions in dashed lines.
Showers will become less likely the further south the front progresses, most likely along the Gulf Coast Side toward Ft. Myers with some lighter drizzle like rain occurring on and just behind the boundary from Central To South Florida  

TODAY: A cold front is working down the peninsula from NW to SE with temperatures in the Panhandle in the 40Fs. Preceding the front, temperatures along the immediate east coast are cooler than the past few days as expected given the loss of the onshore wind component which blew across Atlantic water temperatures in the 70Fs. Temperatures this morning south of the front are generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, although some lower 60Fs are being observed west of US1.


The front should cross the Beach-Line toward the east coast between 11:30am to 1:30pm and be accompanied by mostly cloudy sky conditions, and some patches of drizzle. Skies will begin to clear up in this area from Orlando and east after 2pm, with partly cloudy to scattered clouds working toward late afternoon with some better clearing after 5:30pm, whereas South Florida should then be in whatever cloud cover the front can still muster up.


Temperatures today across Central will top out in the lower 70Fs due to cloud cover preceding the front during peak heating hours whereas far South Florida could work into the low-mid 80Fs in Dade, Collier, Broward, and lower Palm Beach Counties. SW winds precede the front and WNW-NW winds follow in the 10-18mph range.


TONIGHT: Front will have cleared the state, and expect a fairly rapid temperature drop as the sun goes down everywhere behind the front, mainly Central and North Florida with clearing skies and lessening winds which will be gradually veering to the NW-NNW overnight. Temperatures falling into the low-mid 60Fs by 8pm Central and colder north Florida.  Temperatures along A1A will likely bottom out around 4-5AM and hold steady right near 60F but much cooler west of the intracoastals the entire East Coast with lows falling into the upper 40Fs west side of Orlando and South to interior SW Florida with a broad expanse of of mid 50Fs toward Miami Metro and Ft. Lauderdale. In essence, nothing has changed from the expected in yesterday's post.

SATURDAY: The surface low accompanying this front will be moving off the South Carolina Coast and be sliding slowly toward the ESE-SE through the day. Florida will be on the backwash side of the developing low and on the front end of high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and NE States behind the frontal boundary. Increasing NNE-NE winds by Mid Afternoon with a chances of sprinkles right along the coast with increasing winds in the 18-27mph range from Ft. Pierce to JAX. Here is the GFS representation of this scenario per its 2AM EDT Model Run.

SATURDAY at 2AM. Sprinkles possible at the coast, but mostly expecting cloudy skies. Low that is shown will drop SSE-S another 100 miles at most and remain nearly stationary through Sunday

SATURDAY NIGHT: The GFS is very consistent from run to run, and although it varies slightly with the ECMWF well offshore, the impacts to Florida are not really all that significantly different to bother going into a description on how they differ. The NAM is again most aggressive with the wind fields showing a near gale at the coast. It also shows only specific areas to get rain fall, while most areas are dry. For the most part, Saturday looks dry except that pesky field of very light rain at the coast depicted by the GFS, which looks more to me like mist, especially since the forecast sounding reflects some slightly drier air at the 1000 ft level. Any rain to fall from the already shallow deck of moisture (dry above 6500 ft) will have to do so through winds of 25-40 kts before reaching the ground. Chances are, it will be dry on Saturday until after dark.


SET THE CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR. We begin Daylight Wasting Time.


Despite the stronger winds at the coast and up through 5000 ft, they will decouple quickly at night, thus inland winds will become more northerly, drainage type with cool over night temperatures , but not quite as cool as Saturday morning. Each morning becomes slowly warmer, and winds decouple again Sunday night into Monday.


SUNDAY: The strongest winds appear will occur late Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday during the late morning through late afternoon. Sprinkles or mist could turn to showers for a time Sunday afternoon with winds at the coast in the 18-27mph range, although winds just above the deck could be a bit stronger. This still needs better confirmation though, since the potential is there for winds in the 32mph range (at least) which is getting to the 'very breezy' to windy level. Showers could occur up and down the entire east coast on Sunday as the low drops to its lowest southern latitude well offshore , which could spread into the interior during the course of the noon-5pm time frame. Highs in the lower-mid 70Fs, perhaps a bit warmer toward South Florida.


SUNDAY NIGHT: Winds decouple once again, with more northerly type winds of 4-8mph over the interior (west of I-95) while coastal winds remain NE-ENE at 12-18mph with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70Fs right at the beaches and cooling by 10F degrees further inland with the drainage flow. Mist or light showers still possible, but again...have an inkling to hedge toward only cloudy.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winds gradually will decrease for good not until Tuesday night with sunset, predominately in the 18-24mph range at the coast with shower sprinkles again penetrating inland during the day once winds 'recouple' with the stronger 2000 ft level winds after sunrise and spread to the west during the late morning. There could be a time frame when winds become more ENE but those will start to back more toward the NNE to even N on Wednesday as the low pressure area starts to fill and lift north.


The latest GFS has one new twist. Better rain chances along the east coast on Wednesday as the low opens up and allows deeper back wash moisture to back into the coast rather than be wrapped around the low while it was more tightly wound. Meanwhile, another cold front will be approaching the state which puts a quick end to the rain chances later Wednesday afternoon with decreasing winds (which will have already been noted by Tuesday night).


The low off the coast will be stuck in a very progressive split jet stream flow pattern over the U.S., but will act as a bit of a block out at sea. Eventually, the block will break and the progressive pattern will affect Florida as well heading into Thursday.


***NOTE: During the course of this Nor'Easter like event, winds will have a very LONG FETCH off the NW Atlantic. Seas could build well offshore with extra high tides which could cause some minor beach erosion issues in some locations. Needed to say, rip currents and rough seas will be a big boating and swimming hazard, although not sure why anyone would want to go in the ocean to swim under the cloud cover and 'not so warm' temperatures in the 70Fs...with equal ocean temps. Tourist beware. This could make for some good "Victory At Sea" surfing for the experienced who don't mind a strong drift down the coast. I always preferred heading out at one location and not fighting the drift, with someone to pick me up 5 miles down the coast a few hours later.


BEYOND: Very progressive pattern indicating TWO fronts to impact the state Thursday and again toward the end of the weekend. Best rain chance is with the first front on Thursday afternoon and evening.


Winds oddly enough never even get southerly preceding the next front, but instead back to N to NW-WNW-W as the low off the coast lifts north and the next front moves in. The GFS last night had a big cold shot of air with this front taking temperatures in the 40Fs almost state wide (  which seemed suspicious this far out in time since the GFS has a history of over estimating low temperatures beyond 120 hours). Sure enough, the newer run is no longer showing air that cold, and suspect the next run will be even warmer. Very progressive pattern continues with a strong southern branch jet of 100 kts across Florida and an equally strong branch just to the north of the state (but how far north is the great unknown). 

Nor'Easter 'Like' Conditions Could Put Big Damper On Coastal Weekend Plan

Latest Surface Plot with Radar Overlay from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis webpage plots shows a cold front approaching Pensacola with a High Pressure Ridge which extends NNE off the coast of New England and down the coast cutting across North Central Florida. The cold front will beach across the Big Bed by sunrise on Friday and clear the south end of the state near or shortly after sunset.

TODAY: Surface ridge crossing the state today with a moist shallow layer trapped below 5500 ft (bone dry above) under a subsidence inversion.  The upper level trough supporting the surface front will press East to ENE through tomorrow and off the Georgia Coast before Saturday, day break. Skies today to be partly sunny, with profound big breaks in the clouds for ample sunshine from time to time co-existing with other areas of nearly cloudy conditions as light ENE winds become more SE to S and work down the coast during the mid-late afternoon. By sunset light ESE-SE winds will have reached toward the Space Coast with continued ENE-E winds going ESE toward far South Florida. Clouds could break up a little more toward sunset as the trough approaches and breaks up the inversion, but timing is difficult to portend exactly when. Otherwise, non - consequential and pleasant conditions prevail with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs with light winds, possibly variable toward sunset Central/South.

3pm visible satellite image today shows cotton patches over Florida induced by heating of the land mass (note the lack of clouds over the waters). Later today most of the clouds should dissipate with the exception of the Panhandle as the front will be entering that area and cotton pickers hit the fields.

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY:  The front will continue to press eastward with overnight winds becoming SW at 12-20mph by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Overnight lows similar to the past two mornings, with much less warming behind the front during the afternoon across North Florida.


Increasing clouds with daybreak as well, with continued mostly cloudy conditions entering Central Florida and continuing until at least 3pm..possibly breaking up from NW to SE during the mid to late afternoon as clouds increase from South Central to South Florida. Some showers are possible south Florida, but if so, mainly sprinkles under the cloud deck.


FRIDAY NIGHT: Winds becoming WNW after frontal passage and veering to NW-NNW overnight at 10-18mph. Skies clearing from NW-SE. The overnight low from JAX to Sebastian Inlet will likely occur prior to 5AM with a more northerly wind becoming NNE shortly after day break


As noted previously, it looks like there will be a sharp temperature gradient between those along and east of A1A to those 40 miles away from the coast toward the west side of the state. Overnight lows in the western suburbs of Orlando could be in the upper 40Fs whereas   east of A1A at daybreak could be closer to the mid-upper 60Fs and warming to lower 70Fs shortly after sunrise. Very cool as far south as the southern tip of the state with lows in the mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, co-existing with some upper 40Fs as far south as the NW side of Lake Okeechobee. Quick rebound in temperatures after 10AM everywhere.


SATURDAY: After a very cool start to the day, winds along the east coast from JAX to Ft. Pierce increase toward 15-22mph with gusts toward 28mph by early afternoon. It appears an extensive low level cloud deck will accompany these winds with some possible sprinkles under a very shallow but rather dense cloud deck which will exist approximately in the 3200 -6000ft layer. Stronger winds within the cloud deck then rapidly decreasing high up. This will be the theme through sunset with winds decreasing a few hours after dark.


BEYOND - WEEKEND RATIONALIZATION: It gets very sticky. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in General agreement with a few minor exceptions that make a major difference to the sensible weather across mainly the north 3/4 of the state from St. Augustine to Ft. Pierce. The NAM is much more aggressive with the wind and rain factor namely because it has the surface low that moves off the coast drop further south into the western Atlantic (well offshore by a few hundred miles) closer to the Florida East Coast than the GFS. It also continues to drop the low further SSE, whereas the GFS takes it further from shore and lingers it there for several days. The ECMWF seems to disregard this low all together as it swoops it ENE ward and well away, but in any case winds will remain elevated with a very long fetch from the NE-ENE from well out in the Atlantic.


Thus, big rip current threat and possibly a minor erosion threat for Flagler/Volusia if the NAM verifies. Should not be a problem for swimmers, unless one wants to swim under the clouds in choppy waters for some unknown reason.


The NAM really does look over done, especially in the instability department with the possibility of thunder  toward Volusia/Flagler overnight Saturday into Sunday. The NAM overplayed this storm system as it entered the Central Plains 36 hours ago, portraying some dreadful blizzard conditions and high snowfall totals that never happened in the forecast areas. Thus, sticking with the "NAM On Over Drive" Rationalization once again...until proven different. For instance, the NAM is driving 25-35mph winds into the East Coast from Port Canaveral and north, with measurable rainfall as well, with gusts just offshore to gale force. Some of this might have to do , though, with the sea surface temperatures, which from what I read else where will be sampled later today. Thus, expecting better model agreement heading into tomorrow with a little time to spare before Saturday evening remaining.


WEEKEND FIRST GUESS: In going with the GFS, which has been most consistent: mostly cloudy near the coast with some light sprinkles only at the beaches. Surface winds are show per streamline analysis to be diffluent at the low levels under substantial drying above 8 000 ft which would account for the lack of measurable rainfall (at least, within a three hour time frame).  Winds pick up interior inland during the afternoon and die off at night. Another cool start Sunday inland and west side toward the SW Side of Lake Okeechobee, but coastal lows along A1A up and down the coast remain near 70F or more .  Winds pick up again Sunday afternoon and spread cloudiness inland with coastal sprinkles.


No matter which model verifies, things do not look all so great for the big Air Show along the Space Coast this weekend. Less than stellar to be more fair. From an aviation perspective, there could be moderate turbulence along the top of the cloud deck, not to mention the lower clouds obscuring a solid view of an flying vehicle for any sustained time frame. Not unlike watching the STS Missions launching into the clouds for a full 20 seconds of viewing time.


STRESSING: The much more subdued reasoning hinges on riding with the GFS positioning and strength of the high and low pressure couplets. If the NAM verifies, it will be a full bore N'oreaster , with erosion becoming a concern as well. Chances are, the truth will be somewhere in between the two models, with some measurable rainfall mainly along to north of the Beachline toward Vero, with better chances along coastal Volusia/Flagler.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: More of the same with gradually decreasing winds. Inverted trough is shown along the coast on Monday, which breaks down around 11AM allowing sprinkles and clouds to work across the state. A repeat performance of less coverage is possible on Tuesday. Coastal lows and highs remain in the lower to mid 70Fs under the cloud deck, with inland lows warming each morning after Sunday.


Conditions break down much like they are doing so today around Thursday with another front very close to where to the one of today is located on Thursday morning. This front will behave in similar fashion to that of tomorrow's, although there are indications it could drop some rain during its passage. No big temperature changes.


EXTENDED: Watching the Caribbean as well as an area near the Eastern Bahamas, perhaps as soon as mid-week next week, but no land threats appear in the verge of comprehension of a tropical like system...at least not for the contingent 48 states.

Inconsequential Sprinkles Possible at Coast, Otherwise PleasantEE

East to ENE winds today at 10-18mph with a few higher gusts are possible until right after sunset. A few sprinkles could eke to the coast before drying out shortly after reaching the drier air over land west of US1.

Latest temperature plot forecast for early today with the cold front to approach Florida drawn in. The white along the east coast is where a sprinkle or enhanced periods of cloudiness could occur at any time and point before dark. Winds behind this front in portions of Southern Nebraska, West Kansas, and into Western Oklahoma and eventually NW Texas are gusting between 32-45mph with temperatures behind the front in the mid  30Fs. Ahead of the front temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer with equally as strong winds from the opposite direction. Two locations in Nebraska were reporting a thunderstorm with temperatures of 40F and 34F respectively. Quite the dynamic little system for sure. Have no fear, this front will have minimal impact to Florida.

TODAY: High pressure centered over Eastern Virginia is expanding both up and down the entire east coast this afternoon in the wake of the low departing to well off shore the DEL-MAR-VA  region. It cannot even be seen in the above image. The recent snows in New England appear to be abetting development of this high northward per the cold surface temperatures in the NE states where it recently snowed over the weekend. Otherwise, greater expansion of the high pressure through Florida will slowly reduce the pressure gradient and also allow winds to become more ENE to E tonight. Outside of a quickly moving sprinkle at the immediate coast (don't blink or you'll miss it north of Ft. Pierce) other areas will be partly cloudy this afternoon with pancake stratocumulus clouds with a few low topped cumulus. Highs in the lower 70Fs far North increasing to the mid-upper 70Fs Central (with a few near 80F) and upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs South.


TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and winds after sunset with any chance of a sprinkle removed as winds die down. Overnight lows similar to what was experienced this morning wherever you were, although coastal lows from US1 to A1A along the entire east coast might be a few degrees cooler due to less influence of the east winds blowing across the low-upper 70Fs ocean temperatures.


THURSDAY: Little overall change from today with winds quite light from the East becoming SE-SSE eventually after dark. No showers and clear to partly cloudy by early afternoon.


FRIDAY: Possibly cooler along the immediate east coast with a SW wind of 12-18 mph after sunrise preceding a cold front which by sunrise will be cutting through the Big Bend region. Cooler temperatures near the coast since the sea winds will be absent and be replaced by a land breeze. The front will be accompanied by a band of sprinkles/clouds but will likely dissipate with those with rising of the sun. Cold frontal passage across Central appears will be from late morning the mid-afternoon and be accompanied by a band of clouds and a wind shift to the west. The front will finally clear Eastern Dade shortly after sunset. Models are agreeing on a slightly faster frontal passage than previous runs, thus afternoon highs on Friday appear to be limited to the mid-upper 70Fs Central and cooler to the north, but warmer over South Central and South Florida with low-mid 80Fs. West to WNW winds will follow the front with a rapid temperature drop   once the sun gets low in the sky all but SE Florida. Winds will veer from NW-N during the first 6 hours after dark per the morning runs of the NAM and GFS.  No rain with the front south of I-10 for the most part.


SATURDAY: Winds nearly due north to NNE at the immediate coast. Morning lows could portray a very sharp temperature gradient from east to west across the state, with the A1A corridor from the north side of the Cape and south along mainly the barrier Islands of Brevard in the upper 60S, whereas on the west side of Orlando toward Tampa and South to the NW side of Lake Okeechobee lows could be in the mid-upper 40Fs. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50s as far south as Kendall in Dade County with the western Metro Area in the 50Fs as well, whereas Key Biscayne could be 17 F degrees warmer. So far though, it mostly looks like the only areas to skid by on this one will be the Barrier Islands of Brevard and the Keys.


SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: All models agree on the wind and temperature fields for the most part, with the GFS being the outlier by  developing a surface to mid level low pressure area that drops SSE east of the  Bahamas over the weekend. Whether or not this happens could make a big impact for the east coast in regard to Winds and rain chances. The NAM (for a change) is not so robust with an actual low developing but rather leaves it as a trough. In turn, an open wave allows more moisture to reach the coast, so without a doubt the NAM translates that to mean measurable rainfall working down the east coast from JAX along a NE wind surge with sunrise Saturday morning. The GFS is not so robust with the surge and as such, the rain. Both show equal amounts of precipitable water though with nearly identical thermal profiles aloft, but with a closed low (per the GFS) more of the moisture remains wrapped around the low and well offshore. For now, siding with the GFS per its track record recently (as of last May).   Either way, increased cloudiness at least along the immediate coast with brisk NE- ENE winds through Monday.


The main concern for the weekend comes with an Air Show  scheduled for the Space Coast. Even if it does not rain, or only lightly, cloud cover would greatly hamper the view...and if the NAM verifies, so would the winds at 2000 ft forecast to be in the 30-40mph range. It looks like one of "Shuttle Launch Fails For Viewing But Happening Anyway" situations unless the NAM verifies, which would mean calling the whole thing off.


BEYOND: Warming temperatures from mid to late week with overnight lows along the coast the same as the ocean temperatures offshore (low-mid 70FS)...and highs in the upper 70Fs at the coast  to lower 80Fs inland and all of South Florida, perhaps mid 80Fs toward the SW Side. The GFS is showing a continued chance of sprinkles not only for the coast but elsewhere, and if so, afternoon highs could be taken down a few notches due to cloud cover, but temperatures will be far from chilly.


The next front is scheduled in the Daily Planner of the Weather Gods for late next week , so we'll have to see if they need to reschedule. So far, neither this front or the one after that has yet to show a temperature impact through mid-November. Lady Luck is on the SnowBird's Side...as well as a high percentage of the locals.

A Review - 2011 Year of Weather Anomalies Continues

12

Coastal Sprinkles and Perhaps Very Small Measurable Amounts of rain are occurring this morning at the coast from near Vero Beach to NE Palm Beach County. These showers are working down the coast along instability and higher dew point  temperatures associated with where the warm Gulf Stream waters are closest to the coast. These showers could continue toward sunset in the area in white from time to time toward lower Dade/Broward , and possibly a sprinkle could occur as far north as the lavender  drawn in after 4pm to one hour before sunset.

This image shows the low level (surface based) Convective Instability which is helping generate these showers and/or thicker cloud bands per the red lines of constant CAPE (convective available potential energy). As winds become a bit more NNE later today (rather than due north), some of the showers could inch north toward Indian River or South Brevard but be of no impact. The Gulf Stream is further offshore north of Ft. Pierce...and as such will be this low level instability shown by those red line.

TODAY: Outside of that mentioned in the  text contained in the captioned images shown above, low pressure east of Virginia will move very little today until a system moving eastward in a very progressive pattern along the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest south into the South Central Plains moves it out. Surface  High pressure is wedge behind the former system from Maine and down the Appalachians into the North Gulf of Mexico and meets up with mid-level high pressure over the Central Gulf of Mexico. This area is responsible for substantial subsidence (sinking) of air above 6000 ft, so shower tops (of those occurring) are limited to generally that altitude.  The high over the Gulf will lift toward the NNE-NE today and permit a slightly more stacked NNE wind to develop later today.  The second system will move toward the ENE through Friday , with another low pressure area developing over North Georgia by Thursday, accompanied by a pre-frontal trough with no impact to most of the state other than to END the rain chance.  Coastal showers are always possible, especially heading toward Thursday but will mainly dissipate as soon as they reach lower dewpoint air away from the coast. Patches of lower stratocumulus clouds will be the rule from time to time, but otherwise sunny skies prevail under weakening NNE winds by Wednesday and Thursday.


FRIDAY: This could be the coolest morning along the east coast due solely to the fact that the easterly winds will have abated ahead of the pre-frontal trough. Lows in the lower to mid 60Fs near the coast this day, but warmer everywhere in the afternoon, even after passage of that trough. No rain with the trough other than near I-10, with highs in the lower 80Fs most anywhere, possible mid 80Fs far South Florida.


The actual front will cross 'invisibly' the state on Friday, with rain limited mainly toward I-10 as far south as Gainesville near where perhaps a thundershower can eke out (worst case). Otherwise, most rain beyond the Panhandle and interior far north Florida will remain over the Gulf waters and the Atlantic. Perhaps another cool morning Saturday east side (for this area), but otherwise no impacts.  Between the former system and high pressure developing further to the north in the mid-levels behind the second system which will build east well to the north of Florida, surface winds will become nearly due east on Saturday and nearly ESE just above 'the deck'. Morning lows at the immediate coast could warm to sea surface temperatures (mid-70Fs) from Port Canaveral and South, with afternoon highs more solidly warming to the mid 80Fs across the West Side of the state from Cedar Key and South with upper 70F/low 80Fs elsewhere. 


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Deepening easterlies will maintain this temperature regime and increase moisture levels hundredth of an inch by hundredth of inch Saturday, with more assured measurable chances of showers east of I95 overnight Saturday into Sunday as another frontal boundary slowly works into the Deep South. On its approach, the depth of the easterly flow will cease as will the rain chance. In summary, so far Sunday looks to be the best day for rain chances (which will likely change).


BEYOND: No cold fronts are expected to directly impact most of the state (other than toward I-10) for a good two weeks, but that could easily change in the extended. The trend of the long range GFS has been for high pressure in the low and mid-levels to influence most of the state, with most frontal passages to be of the 'back door' variety. Or in other words, fronts mainly sweeping from west to east north of the peninsula then sneaking in from the NNE of the east side of the ridge over the Gulf. These result in little temperature variations from the status quo and occasional wind surges from the NNE accompanied by a cloud deck and sprinkles.

===============================================
THE YEAR OF ANOMALIES, 2011 CONTINUES:
This subject has been touched on more than once in posts since earlier this year. To name a few (and I wish I could recall all of them)...the anomalies began last winter from the Floridian prospective with freezing temperatures along the Florida Beaches well before Christmas during a phase of the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) . History has just repeated itself with record snowfall in New England creating power outages to over 3 Million residents and snowfall exceeding two feet in some interior areas. Temperatures were not record breaking cold (thank goodness). In fact, during this anomaly the temperature the day after the snow fall in Crestview, Florida was 32F whereas in NYC it was 36F. This phase of the negative NAO (which can last up to two weeks only per my observations and not official), seems to be shifting just far enough offshore now to not have an impact to soil bound earthlings. We seem to be normalizing now, and as such temperatures over Florida will be close to climatological  for a good 10 days at least, if not a few degrees above them.

1. Anomalies first became evident best I recall with the big cold spells that occurred twice over Florida In December, but was preceded by yes, Drought , at this time beginning over Florida. Perhaps this was the fore-bearer of the drought in Texas as the pattern in the lower latitudes retrograded in that direction to the west. It might have been over the Gulf during spring per lack of rain or even clouds there as fronts came through during latter portions of that period. The drought over Florida continued from time to time until summer, with fires such as the Iron Horse but others toward SE Florida and smaller ones of big impact toward SE Georgia which left NE Florida and cities such as JAX in days of smoke. UGH.


2. Snows in the Deep South, including cities such as Atlanta.


3. Tornado Outbreak in the Deep South over Mississippi, Alabama, NW Georgia which worked into South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania (briefly). Two separate events within a 10 day period which began over SE Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas.


4. Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley Basin


5. Drought by this time had already developed over Texas. Continuing. Record or near record breaking days of temperatures of 100F degrees in Texas and parts of Oklahoma during the summer.


6. LACK of tornadoes west of I-35 for the entire Tornado Season in Tornado Alley, but made up for by the Joplin, Missouri Tornado early into that season (east of I35). Other tornadoes toward Ada Oklahoma and a significant day in other parts of Eastern OK before Joplin, but east of I35.


7. One big tornado day in Southern Kansas and Western OK all WEST of I-35 which mainly croaked after crossing that Magic Dividing Line which was odd all by itself. Other storms early in the season from Dallas and west toward Abilene and S. Central Texas toward the Mexican Border.


8. Tornadoes in Arizona mainly just east and north of Phoenix, as well as late spring tornadoes in West Central California. 


9. Drought continues in Texas.


10. Large number of tropical systems, most of which missed land, with the only big impact being from Irene. But note, hurricane force sustained winds were never measured from Irene on land.


11. The No-Name storm over Florida, which by all purposes the True no-named portion occurred on the last night from Brevard County toward the WNW near Ocala (over a fairly large area). The rest of this event was pressure gradient winds from blowing across very warm ocean waters under a cold layer of air aloft. The Not Named portion of which should be restricted, in my opinion, from the disturbance that evolved over the Northern Bahamas which moved NW-WNW-W-NW and land-fell per the lowest barometric pressure at Port Canaveral. All of the weather with this system occurred on the North Side of the system as it made landfall as it combined with the other conditions that had already been in place for two days. Biggest impacts over Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Polk Counties, as well as Dade, Broward, a part of Collier and toward Naples along the SW Coast. 


12. Drought continues in Texas.  


13. Lack of a substantial Monsoon Season over the Desert SW. Yes, there was some good Haboobs (dust/sand storms) related to thunderstorm outflow, but a long range period of monsoon rains barely existed long enough to call it a "season", although they did occur for two periods that come to mind off the top of my head.


13. Heavy snows over the Sierras in California and flooding in the Northern Plains in North Dakota. Snow skiing in July. 


14. Blizzard like conditions around Chicago and more heavy snows in the NE states, with the New York City being the highlight since so many individuals were impacted in this region, including the Baltimore and Washington DC zones...Del-Mar-VA to NYC.


15. Lack of a solid thunderstorm season along the I-4 corridor in Florida (Lightning Alley). Most of the storms this past summer occurred near NW Brevard (Mims/Titusville) and near the Lake Okeechobee Effect zone (east side) in Indian River/St Lucie/Martin Counties.  The Vero Beach area had its DEFINITE fair share of storms this year, as did Ft. Pierce.  The Barrier Islands of Brevard maintained their status quo 'storm drought' (along with the Keys , which is normal) other than north of SR 520 where mainly Cape Canaveral had more storms than usual, much to this writer's delight! 


Steering for storms this year when it wasn't neutral was toward the East the higher percentage of the time, which is in reverse to the norm. As such, the Tampa bay area didn't have the 'big season" normally expected, but still big (always is). This is not to say that all areas did not eventually receive the pre-requisite summer storm, it was where they occurred most consistently and direction that they moved that was a bit of an anomaly. 


16. The recent EF2 tornado in South Florida and EF0 in South Central, both near the coast. Not sure these should really be included in the overall scheme of things though, since both were indirectly related to sub tropical factors which are consistently abnormal to start with in any year. Overall though, Florida has been in a Tornado and Hurricane Drought, but there was some activity toward Tampa/Lakeland in early spring with one of the several QLCS Squall lines that crossed that state this year.


17. Finally, record rainfall for the Vero Beach area this past month, surpassed since record keeping began only once before. This area received just a little more than one inch of rain shy  last month than that received during the Hurricanes (Frances/Jeanne)debacle of 2004. This area received several inches just yesterday, as well as during the No Name Event (which is where the whole thing started). They also received a good thunderstorm season as noted above. So much for the drought there, man your life boats.


Which reminds me, remember the insane record flooding in Australia? Sorry if I missed something, which is likely.


FINALLY, what's next? Will these odd ball events continue into the winter? We are forecast to be in a La Nina this winter. That pattern as well the El Nino pattern have led people to believe (at least by way of that overly publicized by the fabulizing media (have to earn a buck some how), with the help of some less scientifically inclined meteorologists, that the climatological norms of such patterns leads to a predictable long range, seasonal outlook. 


This is far from the reality. There are other factors such as ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) to name only a few, as well as other patterns (and yes, I expect we will be hearing about new ones as time passes and more data can be assimilated during the next 10-25 years)...that some schools of thought will be re-defined while newer ones evolve.


 Realize, climatology beyond the past 50-75 years is largely based on poor record keeping (at least that which can be of any use), archaeology,  and geology. Satellites have provided a tremendous view of the earth's weather at all locations simultaneously as well as  has improved communications (continuing). There has likely been big changes in the earth's climate since the planet began, and there's no reason to believe that changes will not continue through eternity or as long as earth exists, a.k.a. Space Weather. Thus, this will be a continuing saga for 'a while' longer.


With that, not even going to touch what the Tornado Season and next year's Hurricane Season will be like...but that does not stop the forecasts for these seasons from being made.  Hey, some folks earn a living that way . It happens every year for both, and sometimes they are correct...but far from always. Recall, even for the tropics..the number of predicted tropical storms is meaningless unless they are steered toward land. Every once in a Golden Age, those two factors for the tropical season over-laps, but when that will be is never known in advance.


Word of final warning, all hurricane prone areas are over due now for "The Big One"..or even "any one " for that matter. Biggest concern at this point at this time of year is , "When will the temperature get so cold that an actual 'coat' will have to be exhumed and the A/C turned off. Small price to pay...but boring.

Chance of Elevated Rotating Storm, Coastal Mini-Rain Event Through 2pm

FORECAST helicity of over 450 m2/s2 Advecting Toward East Central Florida late morning through early afternoon

TODAY: Fairly complex situation evolving this morning as expected. For this morning so far, tossing the GFS since it has quick evolution of a surface low, whereas the trends of the short term RUC and the latest NAM hold off on that formation until later.




NOW: Appears a weak warm front just above the surface is stretched from off shore Ft. Myers toward Melbourne. Strong NE wind at Canaveral north of this feature back more toward the east and decreasing further south.


Instability from the Gulf Stream advecting on shore from Ft. Pierce toward MLB and south to Miami, and expect this could work on shore toward the Tip of the Cape by mid-late morning. The RUC and to some degree the NAM shows a variety of surface lows to form from near Miami to offshore Ft. Pierce to offshore the Cape with just above the deck a more concentric and larger area of low pressure forms along the warm front elongated as stated above through late morning all within the base of a 700mb trough. The warm front should be able to get as far west and north as Port St. John and NNE toward the North side of the Cape by noon as a slightly negatively tilted upper level trough moves through the Deep South and crosses the North Half of Florida.  


Increasing Bulk Shear from the surface to 500mb, Helicity of 400-500 m2/s2 (very high), and CAPE of 400-750 (which is weak) combined with continued on shore flow in the "northeast quadrant' of a developing 925-850mb low centered near the NW side of Lake Okeechobee resulting in onshore flow, with winds veering to S to SSW-SW- W aloft and vorticity moving in with the upper level trough could set up a coastal rain event, all combined with the fact that all of the south half of the state will be within the left exit region of a strengthen upper level jet resulting in increasing upper level divergence and increasing lift  could rationalize this rainfall and possibly some elevated rotating storms...but tornadoes do not look likely.


Worst case would be heavy rainfall along coastal Brevard to Vero Beach, but on the other-hand...if the factors all add up just a few miles further to the east and more quickly (per the GFS)...then light to moderate rain will be the rule ...with the better chance of moderate rainfall nearest the coast.


 An urban flood statement was issued earlier for MLB and south, and with sunrise and greater progression/formation of mid level features with the approach of the upper level trough rain chances/amounts could increase especially near the coast where the low level winds meet upper level SW winds. There could be thunder by mid morning where all the ingredients meet and rotation in the mid-levels results in heavy down pours. It would not surprise me if additional flood statements are issued, and maybe a tornado warning..but believe any rotation to reach the ground would occur offshore.


The big questions are 
1. Where will the 925mb low form and equally as important, when?
2. How far north will the 70F degree dew-points get. All models agree the Beach Line zone toward Tampa, the "Magic Dividing Line". Highest helicity will be right along the 70F dew-point line dividing the state in half..again along the "Magic Dividing line".


Easterly winds are resulting in good coastal convergence, so additional rainfall could occur all the way toward JAX near and east of I-95, but instability will be near zero north of Port Canaveral.
Vort maxes are still on the approach in the mid and upper levels with the heavier rain already occurring despite the fact that this energy and colder air aloft has not yet arrived.

Vorticity arriving. Note that it will base out along the northern extent of the 70F dew-point isothern and cross along the Beach Line where the best helicity will be. This will aid in keeping good isentropic lift type precipitation going north of the warm front. Along the east coast, this lift will be enhanced due to the proximity of warmer ocean waters south of the tip of the CAPE combined with weak instability. As I type, Melbourne is reporting 'Heavy Rain".

The other big question is depending on where the mid level and surface features align, how far north will the heaviest coastal rain get? Guidance is indicating any mid-level convection to make it as far north as KSC with better flat out rain further north. It showed a brief lull in the activity early this morning as a ripple in the 700mb flow might be creating the rains currently occurring, but as the main mid-upper level trough approaches, this area lifts further north toward KSC to the beach line and west toward MCO (Orlando) with the best convergence at the beaches over the Barrier Islands of Brevard from 10am-2pm.




FURTHER SOUTH: It appears the rain has ended for South Florida for the time being, perhaps being 'capped' by warm air aloft over running an otherwise more unstable atmosphere. Whether any storms will impact this area later is a bit questionable, dependent on where the surface low develops, or more appropriately the low just above the surface. If it forms offshore, the resultant pseudo-cold frontal trough will form off shore, and this area will already by behind the front, thus...very little more rain. On the other hand, if the warm front turns into a cold front (rather than a front forming along the Gulf Stream), then South Florida could have another round of heavier rain and thunder after 3pm until around 6pm.  South Florida will need to be monitored during the course of the afternoon to see how things evolve for their second shot of rainfall.


IT'S HALLOWEEN, WHEN DOES IT END?: Looks like rainfall will taper off and end with the setting sun everywhere, with some light rain possibly continuing from time to time until 8pm near the coast somewhere from Brevard to Miami contingent upon where the surface low strengthens to the east of the coastline (and back wash moisture wraps around the north side of it)...This day is standing up to its "Trick or Treating" by Mother Nature reputation. A rotating storm passed off shore north of the Port (Canaveral) on this day in 1997.


BEYOND: Briefly, continued NE winds rule the roost with another frontal boundary to cross near Friday but have no impacts but to enhance NE flow once it passes. Coastal showers (sprinkles) possible by Wednesday. There are TWO opportunities setting up for a Nor'easter like set up along the SE U.S> coast in the first 10 days of November which would be mainly an erosion issue, but the details are yet to be ironed out. 

Rainfall For Tonight Remains "Up in the Air"

The Great Model Debate - How Far South will the Polar Jet Coming Down from Canada Dig as well as how far  west will it bottom out in the next 18 hours. Areas to consider for substantial rainfall Monday are between the lavender lines and south of the green line (South Florida) for rains on Monday OR both areas under the Green Line (north Florida).

SHORT POST AT NOON: Keeping this post fairly short today after looking at overnight model runs, including the SREF, two version of the FIM, the overnight GFS, the latest NAM, the ECMWF, and the GGEM....taking all of these and comparing to actuals and latest trends at the ground.


One big problem seems to be the record snowfall (of over 30" in the mountains of New England yesterday and overnight. High pressure is strengthening behind the low pressure system that is well out of the picture by now near Nova Scotia, and the snow covered ground left behind is likely creating persist colder temperatures at the ground over a boarder than expected expanse and thus strengthening surface high pressure all the down the eastern seaboard. During the past couple of hours pressures have been rising over the state with brisky ENE-NNE winds continuing. Diurnally, this would occur, but the are occurring more than what would be expected under the circumstances portrayed by yesterday's model runs.


The effect of the strengthening high pressure is that the surface front over the Florida straits is making no northward expansion if not pressing further south. Any rainfall that was to occur by now per some models over South Florida is not happening, or rather is occurring offshore with steering in the mid-levels in this area from the WSW (away from shore). Only low topped showers emanating down wind of the Bahamas will be able to make it to shore in this area and those are not able to materialize due to extensive cloud cover.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE and LDIS REAL TIME SHOWS an inverted mid level trough extending from the Yucatan into the South Central Gulf. This COULD be a big player for the North Half of the state on Monday. Snow can be seen in this image over Pennsylvania, SE NY, and New England likely helping to strengthen the surface high due to cold air at the surface. Yellow arrows show the southern branch jet and new approaching polar jet behind low pressure near Wisconsin seen in the clouds there but not drawn in.

One school of thought is that the inverted trough of low pressure will continue to enhance. Strengthening high pressure over the mid Atlantic into the Southeast States will create a temporary 'block' and allow the jet stream from the poles to drop toward the North Central Gulf and pick this area up and swoop this area across All of North Central from JAX to Port Canaveral, creating rainfall due to isentropic lift. But will the jet phase with the southern branch and allow this to happen, or will they phase and stay further north and never pick up whatever is developing in the central gulf...OR, will they never phase at all?!


The other school of thought is that what is in the GULF has no effect, but rather general lifting of the lower pressure from the old frontal boundary and southward into the Caribbean brings that boundary  further north toward Lake Okeechobee.  This in turn takes all the rainfall to the southern 1/3 of the state, quite the opposite result. 


And finally, another school of thought shows neither to occur, possibly because the surface high pressure building south which would be indicative of the rising surface pressures and a low temperature in Crestview, Florida this morning of 32F, colder than that of where it snowed in White Plains , NY and NYC...would preclude the surface front over the Florida Straits from lifting north significantly as well as from allowing the digging upper level trough coming out of Canada to have a substantial affect with the already very stable low level layer in place across Florida (and dry to boot).


In either case, there is a chance of rain showers almost anywhere tonight through sunset Monday but where any low level boundaries will be in place and how much moisture at the NECESSARY levels of the atmosphere for rain to occur coincident with any vort maxes coming either out of the NW Caribbean (South Florida) or the Gulf (North Florida) remains   big questions.


For these reasons, I'm not actually forecasting any bulls eye's for big rains as of noon on this Sunday, October 30th. Another post will follow toward evening as more morning model runs become available. To state 'a case'.


Especially since by  now big changes in the atmosphere over Florida are not forecast to begin until after 8PM no matter which model is used. In short, the Record Snow Event for the far Northeast States might have had bigger impacts than models figured it would, namely because so much snow fell. This would not be accounted for in even the morning model runs, and might not be fully accounted for until runs become available until the 8pm soundings are made and correlated with the latest trends at the surface during daylight.  ..with the models containing that information not being available until well past midnight. By that time, whatever is going to happen (or not happen) will already have become evident on radar and satellite imagery. 


The only trend verifying so far as of noon is that some better moisture is working north in the lower levels, but in order for any substantially workable moisture to get north of South Florida it has to figuratively 'go around the block, in the back door, then re-enter through the front door' to get further north...a very long a drawn out process..will this process be able to take place before the upper level trough by passes the state altogether?