Near Stellar Weekend With Moderating Conditions Through MidWeek

Graphic Depiction of Temperatures one hour before sunrise. Ideal radiational cooling  upon North Florida under a calm wind and  clear sky set the stage for an ASTOUNDING record low temperature in Tallahassee of 23F, with numerous mid- upper 20F in locations such as Crestview, Monticello, Cross City, and Marianna. The 23F surpasses the previous record by 4F and  was very hard pressed to be matched  nationwide even at International Falls, Minnesota. It was colder there than in most locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada to boot,  as well as the Grand Canyon, nearly all stations in Maine, and Aspen, Colorado.  The only location for the most part that out-shined was Mount Washington at 10F with winds gusting to 75 mph , blowing snow, and a wind chill of 19 below zero!  Thanks for blowing it this way Washington. (although, temperatures around where most folks living in TLH were likely much warmer, as this record low was recorded in low/flat/grassy terrain at the airport).

TODAY/SUNDAY: No change in the forecast reasoning of Thursday's post . As expected, lows in the mid-upper 20Fs occurred across North Florida. The very cool to cold air made it as far south as Ocala (34F),Crystal River (34F), and Inverness (39F) whereas the warmest overnight lows occurred from Canaveral and South along the immediate east coast east of A1A to MIA /  US1 to Key West which was around 70F. Winds toward Ft. Lauderdale were already switching to NE and up went the temperature to water temperatures or nearly so as well as Virginia Key (near Key Biscayne) with a pair of 71Fs.


Slow warming through mid-morning inland (but the lows in the 20F will rise into the 40Fs by the time some folks are heading to church), with a quick rebound in temperatures expected interior by 11AM with all locations reaching the low to mid 70Fs as light ENE develops with daytime heating. Skies could be partly cloudy with  'dollar pancake stratocumulus' clouds in passing but little more. Exactly how rich the sky will get with these clouds could be in question. Might see some nearly mostly cloudy skies for a time toward sunset. Neither here nor there though.


TONIGHT: Temperatures near the coast should be a few degrees warmer as well as those along and east of I-95, but interior and west will likely be similar to this morning within 4 degrees of 50F either side.


Winds near calm or light with partly cloudy skies from time to time. There could be some shallow fog by Sunday morning as moisture levels slowly increase from the current level PWAT air of only 0.4 to 0.7 inches under an evening inversion which will quickly disperse with the rising sun contingent upon cloud coverage.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: High pressure responsible for the cold morning which is now centered over South Central Georgia will progress ENE well out in to the Atlantic through the mid-levels. Winds start to become ESE to eventually SE by later Tuesday with the ridge axis across Central Florida and eventually South Central, whereas south Florida remains mostly easterly. Daytime highs near the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover during peak heating (between 11:30AM - 1:30PM). Possibly another morning of fog ' slim chances' Monday but not on Tuesday.


***Side Note: Ocean temperatures are now running in the mid 60Fs north of the Cape and in the lower 70Fs south of the Cape toward Miami, so onshore winds won't be quite the ticket for truly 'warm' afternoons much longer but will buy us warmer overnight lows than inland counterparts.  Eventually, and might as well say it now, these water temperatures will become a big player in afternoon highs along the east coast north of MLB before year's end and the first few months of 2012.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: By Wednesday the first of two frontal boundaries being transported by 140kt jet stream winds heading across the NE Ohio Valley will already be over the Panhandle. Much warmer on Tuesday most places, but Wednesday seems to be  primarily the best day for temperatures most locations to record something in the lower-mid 80Fs, but again, near parallel winds to the coast could hold A1A readings from MIA to the Cape teasing closer to 80F. 


Winds more SW toward I-4 should allow the readings to get into the lower-mid 80Fs as well. After a slight chance of showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly North Florida on Tuesday, precipitable water values will have more than tripled from today reaching almost 1.75".  The first boundary could make it toward I-4 on Wednesday with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two between I-4 and south to north of Lake Okeechobee, or rather, along and south of  wherever the boundary eventually ends up.  


The second boundary mostly notable by a mid -level trough screaming by well to the north along those strong jet stream winds will progress the initial surface front south toward South Central/South Florida on Thursday, with another chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms right along the CDL (Central/Magic Diving Line) across the state, with some showers and maybe thunder South Florida. Already though, by now the front is washing out and becoming absorbed in the humongous but 'ovately flat' area of high pressure which will be re-enforced by passage of the front, extending half way to Europe across the Central Atlantic ENE of Florida.


Deep easterly fetch of over 1000 miles, but not very strong results in remaining elevated atmospheric moisture content (at least 1.3") for quite some time to come. This means overnight lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and probably highs in the mid 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover, which could be quite ample at times.


Showers will be possible or more likely sprinkles Thursday through Sunday morning. The next front will be approaching in the generic "7 Day" Time Frame, or perhaps a day or two sooner. Whenever that might be..the easterly flow will be disrupted and end the shower chance, but clouds could continue with more "Room Temperature" days and "Ceiling Fan nights".


**For kicks, watching the Tropics .... Temperatures in the Caribbean are running in the 80Fs round the clock. Last nights GFS showed a Cat 2 Hurricane coming out of the Gulf from where Rina formed last month..taking a solid tropical storm toward the Big Bend by the 27Th. The following run completely dismisses such fugue state of affairs, but it is worth looking for. Plenty of time and Thanksgiving as well before this early Christmas Gift can be delivered. Chances are more probable this figment will be nothing more than a lump of coal as opposed to a shiny Corvette named Tammy.  Central and North Florida experienced a Hurricane/Tropical storm around this same time frame (November 23rd) in 19988 named Keith.

Cold Front Tonight as Sean Peaks in Strength

Morning Visible Satellite Image Shows Cold Front Across The Panhandle and stretching NNE to a large low near James Bay. Tropical Storm Sean as shown relative to Bermuda and generally forecast direction of motion.

RECAP: Cold front cleared the western Panhandle this morning and is nearing Tallahassee. Drainage flow everywhere last night with temperatures ranging through all of the 50Fs to mid-60Fs, warmest SE Florida coastal and Keys, and within 1 block of the beach from Canaveral and south. 


By an odd twist of fate JAX was colder prior to sunrise than Pensacola behind the front at 45F with a calm wind, albeit Pensacola was one degree warmer at 46F but with winds from the north at 20 gusting to 33mph making for a wind chill of 37F under cloudy skies. 


Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Sean has been on a NNE track and is forecast to miss Bermuda to the west. There was a big flare up of convection around 6AM (Bermuda Time) but that has since waned. Sean is now over cooler ocean waters in the mid-lower 70Fs with no Heat Content. Ocean Buoys in this area are scarce, and none of those closer to the storm were showing sustained tropical storm force winds but one. Sean is officially forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, but not so sure about that due to increasing shear and no ocean heat content. A plane is flying into the area as I write, and they might be able to whip up a (convoluted to some degree) ' technically a hurricane' status, but it will likely be very brief if ever and never be measured on the surface from what I can tell.


Sean will start to become absorbed tonight and more so by mid-day Friday by a much larger trough of low pressure now located near James Bay. High Pressure to the N through NE of Sean could push abundant moisture NW ward in strong SE Flow ahead of the cold front away from Sean. Pressure gradient winds along the coast of Nova Scotia to Greenland could generate surface winds stronger in those locations than what will be experienced in Bermuda . The latest GFS has Sean nearly gone around the same time the NHC has Sean a Hurricane...so time will tell. Either way, no impacts to land other than indirectly due to high seas and pressure gradient winds between the cold front/Sean/and High Pressure.

Latest Analysis. The yellow area shows the surface low SE of James Bay and then Sean. The broad area indicates how these two features will eventually wed off the coast of New England with  very dynamic results upon NE Coastal Maine and through Nova Scotia. Other rains along the coast of New England will be related to the front combined with some of the moisture from Sean as the umbilical cord is made with the Mother Low near James Bay. In a sense, Sean will cocoon from the state of which it originated, a mere non-tropical or even subtropical entity.

OTHERWISE: Cold front approaching Central and South Florida today. Winds today will be NW with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs, mainly South of I-4. Increasing cloud cover precedes the front, and this cloud cover could reach a portion of the region north or near I-4 during peak heating. Otherwise, nothing to speak of other than some light sprinkles possible along and just behind the immediate frontal boundary.


I conjured up a first grab stab   time phased image of the cold frontal position from its current position through the time it will be clearing the state by early Friday. Positions for Central might be delayed an hour or so if the front slows down during the afternoon during heating of the day, but either way...it goes through well after dark:

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY: The cold frontal passage tonight will be easily diagnosed by a surge of NNW winds of 20mph possibly gusting toward 30mph for about a 6 hour window of time from North Florida through most of South Central during which time the temperature will drop 10-15F degrees.. This surge never reaches South Florida to such extent but the cooler air does. Skies could be partly to mostly cloudy all areas for a few hours prior to and after passage.


Morning lows Friday  should range from the mid-upper 50Fs east coast from Canaveral South (warmer toward the lower 60Fs coastal SE Florida), decreasing west of the Intracoastals and down into the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Friday will be the ODD (one day deal) for the east coast from Canaveral and South as far as the coldest temperatures are concerned. Winds relax late morning, but will likely pick up again with daytime heating under clear skies, and with mixing during peak heating range in the 15-23mph range across the state as winds slowly veering toward due north by Sunset. 


Big downfall to all of this. Very cool afternoon Friday, with highs barely getting above 60F toward Ocala and north, and just eking out a low 60F near DAB with breezy N-NNE winds around 18-23mph with mixing during peak heating. The main period of cold air advection will occur coincident with peak heating on Friday well behind the front, which will be a saving grace from what could otherwise be a very cold morning had timing been different.  The NAM is showing a near classic JAX Cold Wedge working into the north side of the Cape approaching the Port, but thinking for now it's too early in the season for those shenanigans, so discarding...highs other areas all of Central (except Tampa Bay) in the mid-upper 60Fs nearing lowers 70Fs coastal South Florida/Keys.


SATURDAY: High pressure will be building across the Deep South and northern Gulf and be center near Southern GA Saturday Morning. Very light winds and drainage flow could send temperatures near I-10 in select areas like Crestview, Marianna, and Tallahassee into the mid-upper 20Fs with widespread 30Fs (frost looks possible as well in these areas). Elsewhere, winds along the east coast of Florida will start to become more NE (and light) overnight, so that overnight lows from the Cape and South might occur well before midnight, level off, and possible rise a few degrees before sunrise into the low 60Fs ...mainly within only a few blocks of the ocean. Otherwise, with sunrise ENE winds develop as the high pressure center continues to build NE ward into the Western Atlantic. By day's end a broad and stacked elongated oval of  high pressure will extend well out into the NW Atlantic (close to where Sean demises) SW ward into the SW Gulf of Mexico. The cold event is all but over already for the South half of the state after sunrise Saturday.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Mildly cool overnight coastal lows but no big deal, cooler inland with possible patchy inland fog. Winds become more east to eventually ESE-SE on Monday as high pressure continues to work offshore in stacked fashion.. It appears some vorticity (energy) from the old frontal boundary by now south of Cuba might get recirculated along the back/western extent of the surface to 850mb high (now well out at sea) late Sunday through early Tuesday. In doing do, showers could work up the east coast from the Keys and far Southeast Florida Sunday night through Monday, reaching dead central toward Indian River/Brevard/Southern Volusia from mid-morning through sunset after clearing South Florida.


Very warm Tuesday/Wednesday. Looks like the East Coast from Ft. Pierce and North will see the warmest days it has experienced in quite a while as winds will no longer be predominantly onshore and across the cooling ocean waters. Thought those easterlies would never end.


Another potentially potent Southern Plains to Ohio Valley frontal boundary which might result in a Quasi Linear Convective System type Squall Line from Eastern Oklahoma/NE Texas into Louisiana and through the Ozarks toward Ohio (as well as Indiana and Illinois) will be on the approach by Wednesday. 


Latest GFS indicates there might be a prefrontal trough ahead of the boundary which might result in some showers ...and who knows..maybe even a thundershower or two..across Dead Central moving offshore the east coast Wednesday afternoon and evening. 


This approaching front never clears Florida as thought (at least so far) but becomes absorbed in the ridge of High pressure which, as it might be, will dominate the states weather into at least early Thanksgiving. The GFS is up and down on rainshowers moving onshore beyond Wednesday with the next washing out front. For some reason, it has backed off on them as of the 2AM model run, which is a new twist. I'm hedging more on showers though given the wind fields it shows.          

Tropical Storm Sean To Lift North Tomorrow /Cold Front Thursday Night

SEAN positioned over 800NM East of Ft Pierce/West Palm this morning. This image shows Ocean Heat content (which is closely correlated to the SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) this morning. Note that any further northward motion will quickly take Sean into ocean waters too cool to support Tropical Storm status (black coloring), although winds will remain at Storm Strength well after it clips Bermuda. The brighter colors in orange denote dry air. Note that Florida is in the dry air in the mid-upper levels to well off shore, indicating that shower activity over the state is not related to Sean.

***REMINDER: Nation wide test of the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) today at 2:00pm EST. ****


NOW: At 7AM all areas are experiencing drainage flow with some small areas of low patchy fog and a very saturated low level atmospheric moisture profile which quickly dries out  500 ft above the ground, more so above 5-6000ft. Temperatures are in the low-to mid 60Fs with a few upper 50Fs everywhere other than direct beach side from Port Canaveral to Key Biscayne and the middle and lower Keys where temperatures are clinging for dear life on 70-72F.   A few low topped showers linger just offshore the Cape with other showers working into far SE Florida.


TODAY: Sean will meander in place today and eventually begin to lift northward tonight. High pressure builds NE ward from the SW Gulf as the high pressure wedge down the Eastern Applachians that had been creating the pressure gradient retreats NE ward as well ahead of an approaching cold front and that front's supporting upper level trough.


Winds today to become more NNE at 10-20mph with strongest inconsequential winds down the Barrier Islands/Intracoastals along the entire east coast, with a period of such winds in the mid-afternoon inland as mixing works out the low level inversion that is trapping the moisture close to the ground this morning. Low topped showers, mainly sprinkles but the dominant mode will be decks of flat topped stratocu mainly over the Southern Half of the state, with more dense clouds of various altitudes across North Florida ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Temperatures like the past two days, with highs at the beaches in the mid-upper 70Fs  with some very low 80Fs interior/west/and south Florida. All in all, highs will be dependent on cloud coverage (where it will be located) during peak sun angle hours.


TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: Winds become light NW well after dark and shower chances end with cooling temperatures everywhere. There could be some lower ground fog almost anywhere by morning with dewpoints remaining steady state close to the ambient air temperature, with lows in mid-50Fs everywhere except near any body of water where lows will be in the low-mid 60Fs.

Morning enhanced infrared satellite image shows Sean well to the east of Florida and a projected track for starters. Surface front in light blue and the high pressure building into the Gulf and down the Appalachians. Sprinkles possible, mainly the South Half of State, with patches of stratocu resulting in sky conditions varying from sunny to mostly cloudy for brief periods in a few select TBD locales. Meanwhile, Alaska is dealing with a No-Named Hurricane Equivalent Storm of its own, one perhaps of intensity this time of year never equaled except maybe once in recorded history.

THURSDAY: NW Winds of 10-15mph during the afternoon with highs near 80F to lower 80Fs, but cloud cover will be a key factor in this variable, especially across Dead Central where it might end up being in the lower to mid 70Fs. Front appears will go through Panhandle dry. As high pressure in the Gulf continues NE ward (and pushes Sean further north and east), pressure gradient winds behind the front will already be in place over the Western Gulf. Moisture convergence during a brief window of opportunity behind the departing high and ahead of the front could result in some sprinkles or showers 30 miles either side of the Magic Dividing Line (MDL) running from Tampa Bay to Port Canaveral from early afternoon to sunset 'ahead of' and 'as' the front passes through.


THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY: Cold front then to cross from NNW-SSE down the peninsula, crossing the MDL around 10:30pm. Front to be followed by PERHAPS gusty winds right along both the West and East Coasts from JAX - Ft. Pierce (on the east side) of 18-25mph for a few hours overnight. It appears these will stay offshore the coast further south, and be greatly reduced by sunrise or shortly thereafter as the high pressure continues NNE ward.


FRIDAY: Cool all day with highs in the upper 60Fs to near 70F along the MDL and cooler North with some highs north of I-4 never making it out of the 50Fs. South Florida / Keys should reach the Middle 70Fs..all with north winds of 15-22mph making for a very cool, fall like day under mostly clear skies.


FRIDAY NIGHT: Circulation around the high which will work well NE ward to the NW Atlantic and SW ward into the SW Gulf of Mexico results in NNE-NE winds overnight. The immediate east coast from Port Canaveral and South should level off in the quick temperature fall that will ensue with the setting sun, and actually warm a few degrees prior to sunrise, remaining essentially in the lower to mid 60Fs while inland lows vary from the low 50Fs to mid 40Fs as far south as Okeechobee, and even cooler from Ocala toward the Big Bend and Panhandle region.


SATURDAY: With a cool/cold start early winds will become ENE everywhere by late morning with a rapid warm up into the 70Fs with sunny to scattered skies working onshore by early afternoon. Winds in the 10-15mph range and 70F's to make for a stellar weekend with similar conditions on Sunday.


BEYOND: Much of next week will be more of the same with overnight lows gradually warming as air mass modification (rising dew point temperatures) is prolonged with continued ENE-E flow. Any windier conditions (above 18mph) will be restricted to the Southern 1/3 of the state. There might be some low topped sprinkles toward South Florida by early to mid next week, but not worth the mention in a forecast highlight.


NEXT WEEKEND: So far, it continues to look like the weather this coming weekend won't be that of the following weekend per the GFS Model. Warmer with overnight and daytime highs remaining in the 70Fs at the coast and 60Fs inland with highs near 80F or above interior and west, cooler near the east coast everywhere . E winds becoming ESE-SE as the next front will be on the approach by next Thursday (right on cue). It still appears this front will reach Central, this time becoming absorbed quickly in the prevalent dome of high pressure over the southeast States toward coastal South Carolina. Not once in the past 4 days (and 16 model runs) has the GFS showed a clear cut frontal passage. Numerous showers  with moisture depth reaching upward toward 8000 ft (as opposed to a shallower 5000 ft) would result in measurable rainfall, mainly over the Southern 2/3 of the state with the higher totals within 40 miles of the East Coast from Brevard County and South.  

Sub-Tropical Sean With 45 mph Winds Spits at Florida East Coast Today

Sub-Tropical SEAN is seen in this enhanced water vapor image from early this morning. The system has winds of 45mph and will likely strengthen further during the next 48 hours as it remains nearly stationary and eventually drifts toward the west to northwest before entering cooler waters. Also shown is the ridge of high pressure (zig zag line) down the East Coast into the Gulf and flow around it. Florida is in 'dry air' and our activity is not related to Sean other than very indirectly at best, but directly in the sense of the long period and large ocean swells. Cold front moving through the Southern Plains with upper level low shown over New Mexico. That low will move toward Western Michigan track the front across Florida, while the low will be far removed in NE Canada. Best chance of severe today shown in solid lavender with other areas in the dash lavender (but not all inclusive) possible. ..for presentation purposes only. The problem being presented today for severe further north is not unlike that which happens in Florida along the Magic Dividing line. The best wind profiles will be far removed in western Michigan, whereas all the instability will be near and south of the Arklatex Region several hundred miles away. The difference with these events in Florida is that the two regions are separated by, well, almost nothing.

OVERNIGHT: Decoupling and resultant drainage flow was more expansive last night with only the Cape toward West Palm Beach remaining in NE winds ( along and east of US 1), as well as a small portion of far NE Florida near JAX. Net result was cool temperatures in the low to mid 60Fs many areas as far south as Okechobee, with Homestead near Miami having the same temperature as Pensacola before sunrise. In the areas not affected by the factors of decoupling and drainage lows remained in the low 70Fs (Cape to West Palm) except far NE Florida near cooler ocean waters and less direct flow off the ocean. This can be best seen by the well past sunrise temperature schematic which shows temperatures already rising along the east coast where onshore winds of 10-20mph today will prevail...with some coastal sprinkles being the dominant mode of activity today mainly along and east of the light blue line.

TODAY: Coastal highs mainly in the mid to upper 70Fs (South Central/South) near the warmer ocean waters but prevailing mid to lower 70Fs further north. Inland temperatures in the upper 70Fs to near 80F.


Morning RUC and North American Model (NAM) forecast soundings indicate a very strong subsidence inversion just below 5000 ft this afternoon that would not support rain, with the prevalent modus operandi being banks of vertically challenged pancake stratocumulus clouds which could pass well inland and across the state. Daytime heating should lower dewpoints inland, so not sure even a sprinkle will be found west of I95 except toward South Florida. There are bigger gaps in the cloud field per satellite imagery than of yesterday, likely due to the better organization of 'now Sean' and  increasing subsidence around the western periphery (far removed from the center) as anticyclonic flow starts to encompass the storm. A sample forecast sounding shows how shallow the moisture will be today if the NAM is correct.

NOTE the dewpoint and temperature lines above and where they separate below 850mb which by standards is at 5000ft. Looks like a sprinkle day with a brief shower possible only at the beaches. This inversion was maybe 1000 ft higher yesterday at best, but every inch counts under the circumstances.  This sounding equates to spittle driplets. 

  MEANWHILE: Sean is well off to the east and is centered somewhere roughly a few hundred miles east of West Palm. Models have all seemed to initialize it too far north by 50-75 miles. No matter. The storm is nearly stationary and seems to be getting better wrapped up. Sean is meeting critieria of being a '27'...near the 27th latitude and hovering over 27C degree ocean water temperatures (which meet those necessary for tropical storm formation). Waters cool SUBSTANTIALLY north of the latitude of Jacksonville well out at sea toward Bermuda. Regardless, the storm could still become better organized and start to look more impressive on satellite imagery through Thursday.

Green line shows the western extent of the circulation per cloud types. The lavender lines along the east coast of Florida is the area that onshore winds blew all night (where the atmosphere did not decouple and/or where drainage flow was not experienced, thus warmer overnight lows). The orange arrows show the flow before sunrise. The yellow indicates low clouds or thin fog closer to the ridge axis noted by the blue zig zag.  

Per satellite animations so far this morning, it looks like the best chances for any actual showers will occur over Volusia and North Brevard toward late morning and early afternoon...but other areas could get in on the action at any time after 2pm, but not be a big deal.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Suspect that almost everywhere might fall prone to drainage flow, but a small corridor could remain free of those affects along the east coast from Canaveral to Ft. Pierce/West Palm once again. Similar temperatures with less chance of showers limited to sprinkles.


During the day Wednesday models have been agreeing that sometime between 11AM -2PM the east coast could fall within the realms of circulation of Sean as the ridge of high pressure pulls out to the NE ahead of the approaching cold front. Shower chances could exist once again mainly within 25 miles of the east coast from the North Side of the Cape to Miami. The NAM is showing ample moisture to support showers but does not depict any. Then again, that has been the case the past few days. The limiting factor though will be how shallow the moist layer will actually be. I suspect it will be a sprinkle fest at best at this point given the trends with winds more northerly with less oceanic effects. The GFS has trended downward with the rain chance.


THURSDAY: Front will be in the Panhandle and lift off to the NNE while crossing the state dragging its non-dynamic tail across the state Thursday night ... with hardly a surface reflection. During the day, winds will be NNW-NW with a cool morning due to drier air now in place due to subsidence (sinking) around Sean combined with drainage down the spine of the state. Thus, the cooler morning everywhere will be a function of lower dew points (less moisture) holding heat in as well as no wind off the warm ocean waters. High pressure in the mid-levels will build NE ward from the SW Gulf further cutting off the moisture supply, but not fully enough before generating rain along the front along and north of I-4 (at worst)...if even that.  The front will clear the remainder of the state pretty much un-noticed until after dark when winds become more NNW.


MEANWHILE: Sean will become Extra Post Tropical and move out as a gale near to or shortly after passing the Bermuda Triangle, eventually impacting indirectly the coastal NE states toward Maine and possibly even Greenland as it heads toward the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. Models vary from taking what is left across Greenland to merging 
SuperExtraPostMortum Sean with the other low that will be tracking the cold front across the state (noted earlier in this post), and subsequently retrograding that merger toward far northern Canada south of the Arctic Ocean!:

FRIDAY: High pressure in the mid levels continues to build in the mid-levels across the NE gulf and into the Mid-Atlantic while a surface high builds eastward from Central Texas behind the front. The two combined could send a 'wind surge' of 22-28mph down the east coast, but so far it looks like that surge will narrowly by-pass the coast by less than 15 miles. Either way, after a very cool morning low with most areas in the low 50s-upper 40s and closer to 60F only right on the beach from Port Canaveral and south, due north winds during the afternoon coupled with the already pre-established drier air will limit daytime highs along and north of the magic dividing line (Canaveral to Tampa Bay region) to the upper 60Fs and cooler north, with lower-mid 70Fs graduating (warming) the further south one goes to the Keys (upper 70Fs).


FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY: Winds clip the coast all night, so the coolest temperatures east of US1 might actually be felt around 2AM and warming a few degrees as winds gradually become more onshore by sunrise Saturday, but similar overnight lows to Friday Morning elsewhere.


WEEKEND WEATHER/BEYOND: Picture perfect with winds becoming easterly post-haste by late Saturday afternoon and beyond (eventually ESE-SE by late Monday). Temperatures round the clock in the 70Fs right at the coast, warming into the 80Fs by Monday South Florida and spreading northward to much of the state Tuesday. Overnight lows warming inland as well, but will still be in the 50Fs most areas until Tuesday morning.


Next chance for showers comes Monday and Tuesday before the next front comes, in you guessed it, nearly exactly one week after the now approaching front passes per this time of year. The next front will have a problem crossing the entire state..or this is at least   possible. The GFS has shown this for several runs day after day, with the front hanging up anywhere from South Georgia to Central Florida. The easterlies to ESE-SE winds with high pressure now established due east to ESE of the state in the Atlantic and increasing moisture could make for a showery weekend before that of Thanksgiving, more 'showery' than this previous regime, but a bit warmer as well.   This is well out in time and will likely change innumerable times before then, but so far the writing has been on the wall for a more wet period heading toward the week before T-Day for a while now.    

Will Gale Have a "Sex" Change to "Sean"? More of the Same Locally

Sunrise temperature plots show winds again decoupled overnight with drainage flow ensuing along the Suwanee River Valley Basin and South along I-95 to SE Florida. The only locations that did not decouple overnight were extreme coastal NE Florida and along the immediate coast from Cocoa Beach to Pompano Beach. At Cape Canaveral the temperature varied from 68F - 73F degrees pre-dawn at my place over the course of a few hours proving that this area was trying to make the break, but PAFB never experienced these variations. DAB's winds went NW and cool once again as did MIA and Kendall area. 

TODAY: Very similar to yesterday with weaker on shore winds today. Morning RUC forecast soundings are indicating that unlike yesterday the inversion around 5000 ft might never lift, thus inland winds across the interior should not be as strong today as well as those along the immediate east coast which should be in the 10-20mph with some stronger gusts almost anywhere, but most likely far NE Florida and SE Florida and areas toward the West side of the state.


Model guidance is useless once again for a rain forecast since none of the driving principals for convective or stratiform type rain really rules either of those roosts, so went with visible satellite imagery , morning trends, and the forecast available moisture in the lowest 5000 ft of the atmosphere. With that, the best chance of measurable rain today  from a purely visceral perspective appears to be from the FL/GA border to Ormond Beach or just north of there. Admittedly, not very 'scientific'.


From another perspective, my other gut instinct is to label this overall weather period of today through Tuesday as being a purely nocturnal type setup. In that sense, the better chance of showers from DAB to MIA will be after 6pm through 9AM Tuesday morning. Noting that none of the models are showing rain anywhere even now as they are coming in steadily toward and over NE Florida into Flagler County. The only reason I'm not fully buying into this idea is because the latest RUC is not showing the 5000 ft inversion  to lift today as it normally would during the afternoon. If so, the better moisture will remain locked in place below that level and allow for a continuation of showers all day almost anywhere underneath the inversion...sneaky devils. 


This would also mean, however, that inland winds will not be nearly as strong as yesterday with showers making it well into the interior under the inversion. It also means afternoon highs will remain in the lower-mid 70Fs...since the cooler night time air and that being advected off the cooling Atlantic waters would remain trapped under the inversion. Best thing to observe casually, if the temperature starts to climb into the upper 70Fs to near 80F, the rain chance goes down...at least until just after or near sunset. In short, any rains to reach the state south of the JAX area is merely 'atmospheric spittle' ejecting from the low well offshore just under 1000 miles away.


Visible satellite image with daybreak indicates some brighter cloud tops as opposed to yesterday's 'field of cotton' type image indicating that showers might very well extend out through the great beyond into the Atlantic from east of Jupiter Inlet and North. Thus, chance of showers with big periods of sunshine as well. Shower tops are very low, so they can sneak in pretty quickly since they will not be visible from far away except to the prudent observer.


Much of what will occur today also depends on what happens with the Gale (low) offshore. Morning  RUC and NAM trends for it to become better organized throughout the day, and per those runs this low in my mind could become a named subtropical low ("Sean") by tonight (per the RUC) or by Tuesday night (per the NAM) models...given that the system is ingesting warm air and lifting it to the upper levels slowly but surely. The RUC has the system warm core through the bottom 5-7000ft by 6pm tonight, whereas the NAM is slower. The GFS never makes the system subtropical at all. For now, would ride with that model, but morning visible satellite imagery has been trending stronger/better . The storm is twice that of yesterday if not more in terms of compactness. The bigger (or other) conundrum in terms of naming the system is that is ingesting dry air throughout the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere, so that factor alone might preclude a "Sean" Storm despite the surface forecast winds that would befit such nomenclature. 

Clearly a low circulation in the low levels at sunrise, with a broader expanse of circulation extending to the SW by 240NM (nautical miles). Note how the cloud 'types' change in between the Green Arrows where the small low topped showers are contained off the Florida East Coast. Those combined with the patches of paper thin, pancake stratocumulus clouds indicate subsidence above the 5-60000ft inversion (sinking air) as well as it being BONE DRY aloft.

Meanwhile, a front is nearly stationary today across the Plains states, but will be on the move tonight as a large and deep upper level low presses in closer to the area from Arizona / New Mexico. All modes of severe weather are possible in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and South Central Kansas, with hail seeming to be the most likely distraction (up to 2" or more sized) as well as some tornadoes, although the set up is not screaming "Tornado" in my mind, it is close to it though, and therefore the area is already being closely monitored with a least one Tornado Watch possible after 1pm CST.

TUESDAY: Either way, it looks like the 'low' offshore will remain nearly stationary today generally 850-950 miles east of St. Augustine but begin a general drift toward the W-WSW through  Wednesday.
The more well developed the system becomes, the lower the rain chances and wind strength will be on Tuesday, namely since the state will not only be under subsidence from sinking air due to the wedge of High Pressure extending from Virginia to the Central Gulf, but also due to sinking air on the west side of the low as it backs closer to the east coast of Florida.


WEDNESDAY: So far guidance continues to indicate the low will be on its closest approach to East Central Florida. The NAM and GFS are indicating a sliver of moisture convergence to work down the coast from  DAB to MIA through the course of the day (from Just west of I-95 and east). This will be a different type of set up if it does occur than what has been happening the past few days, and would not spread further inland.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cold front to approach the Panhandle. Temperatures will fall before and after this so called 'boundary'   due to the winds  being NW. ..at least in the morning, but warmer Thursday afternoon. In truth, it looks like a "Faux Pas Front"...with cooler temperatures due solely to a function of prolonged NW winds pulling drier land-based air across the state as opposed to marine air. Net result is lower morning low temperatures (lower dew points) on Friday with low 60Fs at the coast cooling to the mid-upper 50Fs along and west of US1 / I95 with upper 40Fs down the spine of the state toward NW Osceola County and lower 40Fs Panhandle toward interior NE Florida. Warm Thursday afternoon but a few degrees cooler Friday afternoon and night.


DRY except perhaps some sprinkles working just offshore and down the coast and perhaps coming onto land in Southern Palm Beach through Dade Counties and the upper Keys.


SATURDAY: Stellar weekend. By this time the low offshore is lifted well to the north, and a bit ironically has a cold front extending from it well out at sea as it becomes fully extra-tropical...After a cool start to the day, temperatures from then on out are similar to what we have experienced the past few days, if not a few degrees warmer, with the only rain chances around the Keys and far SE Florida (meager). Winds swing to NE late Saturday with slow air mass modification commencing.


Next front on the schedule per this time of year should be approaching 6-7 days later, and sure enough the GFS follows that line of climatological reasoning.


Still looks like the period between November 16 - 22 time frame could have something 'active' in terms of either wet , wind, or both...but not of severe convective (thunderstorms) type. 
  

Partly Sunny, Slightly Breezy, Warmer - A Few Showers

FLORIDA is on the far left of the morning visible satellite image. Low pressure area noted in red will remain nearly stationary today and drop a bit more toward the SW and W through Monday. Current position is roughly 700 miles east of Ormond Beach. By Wednesday it will generally be approximately 475 east of Cape Canaveral and will have weakened considerably by that time as it opens up and starts to lift north and merge with another area of low pressure moving off the NE U.S. to Nova Scotia.

TODAY: As expected, the atmosphere decoupled overnight where inland lows were in the lower 60s and mid-upper 50Fs with a north wind, whereas at the East Coast winds remained NE from Cape Canaveral south toward Pemproke Pines where overnight lows remained in the low 70Fs (and actually warmed after 2am from the upper 60Fs in some locations). Winds in Miami were even NW this morning as opposed to easterly. Sharp cap at 5000 ft will lift toward 7300ft after noon at which point clouds should freely cross from east to west across the state. Models and even the Mesoscale Analysis Page are worthless today in determining where and to what extent showers will occur, considering that showers are mostly occurring toward SE Florida early this morning despite strong Convective Inhibition and the inversion, since this activity is occurring underneath those factors and are thus very low topped  beneath the inversion.


THIS AFTERNOON: The subsidence inversion should lift  by noon at which point stronger winds around 2000 ft will attempt to work to ground level resulting in ENE-NE winds in the 15-22mph range with a few stronger gusts. Winds might actually be stronger toward the interior. Showers will be moving a little slower today, as will the cloud patches. Thus, there could be enough sunshine during those breaks for highs to reach near 80F from Southern Volusia and South and across the interior with mid-upper 70Fs further north and cooler jet closer toward I10 along the coast near JAX/St. Augustine.

Morning surface plot from Melbourne's Local Data Integration System shows northerly drainage flow under the low level cap. Green 'hatches' show where a sprinkle or brief shower could occur today at almost anytime, but most likely after 2pm. Winds offshore are 20-23mph, and those should work in by noon time and work across the state by early afternoon. Satellite image (above) shows no end to the patches of clouds. But, they will move a bit slower today per model guidance depiction of the winds at their level. Thus, big breaks with sun followed by some mostly cloudy skies, with some blue sky likely visible along the horizon in some direction at any given time except in the showers.

TONIGHT: Instant replay of rather benignly breezy conditions this afternoon with the 'gale'well offshore. The surface low well offshore will start to creep in a general W-WSW direction and begin to weaken later on Monday.  In the meantime, the Surface ridge which is driving down the entire eastern sea board will start to displace more toward the NE and begin to overlap the low pressure area, resulting in more ENE winds. Fog will be possible over the northwestern portions of the interior now that ample moisture will have translated across the state under the subsidence region aloft and as winds decouple overnight toward Ocala and west and south toward northern Polk. 


MONDAY: Overnight lows tonight along the east coast will remain in the 70Fs from Brevard and south under partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy skies at times. With the inversion lifting again toward noon time. Shower chances look minimal once again, but the chance does exist. Winds will replay with afternoons in the 'upper teens to twenties', but perhaps be just a few mph stronger during to just after peak heating.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The low pressure area should be at its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday and be quite broad..located generally 550 East of Cape Canaveral. As such, rain chances might increase Tuesday night into Wednesday along the coast at anytime. Not so sure the overnight lowering of the inversion will occur Tuesday night though, which would mean warmer overnight lows everywhere and mild conditions since winds would not decouple from the 2000 ft level.


THURSDAY: Front will be on the approach, with the high pressure sliver still wedged in between the approaching front of low pressures and the low offshore which will start to lift a bit north and open up.
Winds on Thursday with the proximity of the low will become NW with no rain chances. Cooler start to the day along the east coast without the onshore wind component (60Fs) but warmer everywhere with highs in the lower 80Fs with some mid-80Fs interior and SE Florida.


FRIDAY: It appears the front will go through sometime Friday afternoon, but timing remains up in the air. Small chance of showers along the front with a period of NW winds a little stronger right after FroPa. 


SATURDAY: Still up in the air regarding morning lows, since the GFS is oscillating back and forth between very very cool to 'not so bad'. Still favor the not so bad, with coastal lows in the mid-upper 50Fs and the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west. Dry.


SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Rapid airmass modification as winds swing around to N-NNE overnight Saturday. Sunday morning lows possibly in the 60Fs along the coast. Chance of a coastal shower from the Cape South as winds swing on shore, but too small to probably even put in an official forecast.


BEYOND: Smooth sailing in the temperature department for quite some time to come with 70Fs round the clock and low 80Fs during peak heating hours. Could start to see more coastal showers again, but not ready to make a call on that one, considering the details of even today are tough enough, let along over a week from now.

Florida East Coast To Narrowly Miss a Major Gale Event Through Sunday

FORECAST PER the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Model for 2pm today. Shown is surface wind forecast to be 50kts (close to 55mph) offshore the Carolinas due to pressure gradient winds between High Pressure from the Mid-Atlantic to New England and a broad surface low east of South Carolina. 

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: Strong winds are looming not too far away, but will never reach land to the magnitude at the coast of those offshore. Morning winds are NNW-NW and in the 5-12mph range to near calm. Latest radar shows very fast moving shower sprinkles not far offshore  awaiting for the surface low to move further to the ESE and the overnight inversion to break. Any clouds are limited to the immediate East Coast from Brevard and North and further inland toward NE Florida where the NE winds are starting to work in. These clouds will spread out with daytime heating after 11am or noon once the inversion starts to break.

7AM: Yellow shows morning cloud cover per infrared satellite image before the sun is fully risen. Current position of low and future first best guess track of this low through Wednesday afternoon. Rain chance impacts mostly from near DAB to Sebastian could spread South, especially on Wednesday with the only wind impacts (which will be minor) limited to north of Ft. pierce, and best chance/highest from Cape Canaveral to Playalinda Beach. (blue)

TODAY: The surface low will move ESE (East South East) through most of the day then begin to take a Southeast to South Curve tonight through Sunday. The morning inversion per forecast soundings will begin to break between 12pm -2pm andl lift from around 1200ft toward 7000 ft by 4pm. During this time, showers will work closer to shore and clouds will work SW into the interior as winds begin to pick up.


During this transition surface winds of 20-30kts per the RUC will swipe the east coast closet to Ormond Beach to Sebastian, with a big wind speed gradient between the A1A corridor and US1, sometime around 1-2pm. As of the latest RUC run of 6AM, winds of 30-34mph could impact the tip of the CAPE and very close to Port Canaveral from just east of due north. All models generally agree that rain showers will be possible after 2pm with a potential quick sprinkle before that time. The better overall chance of showers which could briefly make things 'wet' is  during a window between 3pm - 10pm, mainly along and east of I95 as far south as Ft. Pierce and north to St. August after which time the inversion lowers and the moisture depth becomes too shallow to support anything more than cloud cover.


Had things been set up with the low positioned another 200 miles further west this could have been a major east coast weather event. The other precluding factor reducing rainfall potential for this system is the cooling Atlantic Ocean waters since earlier in the month when the high rainfall totals occurred and waters were warmer and the fact that winds were unidirectional with height as opposed to veering

Overnight low at the Cape/PAFB was around 59-60F as anticipated but cooler all other locations. Today's high along the east coast will work through the lower toward mid 70Fs during the better cloud breaks prior to 2pm. Outside of the NE-and far Eastern South Central Portions other areas could get into the upper 70Fs toward lower 80Fs. More cloud cover could spread across a much larger portion of the state after 2pm until right around sunset.

TONIGHT: Winds decrease toward dark, especially inland as the inversion lowers and the stronger winds ride above the inversion. It still appears thus that winds at ground level will 'decouple' from the stronger winds at 2000 ft below the inversion,  and any sprinkles are restricted to just off the coast on the lee of the Gulf Stream after 10pm. By now, the air mass will have been modified due to flow off the ocean all day, with overnight lows near the coast in the upper 60Fs and cooler inland and west where winds will be more from the north under the decoupled atmosphere. Continued air mass modification through Wednesday with more onshore winds blowing across 70Fs ocean water temperatures each day from mid morning through sunset.

SUNDAY: So far, it looks like a replay with the inversion lowering at night and winds decoupling, then lifting toward 7500-8500ft feet from sunrise to noon allowing winds to work across the state. Winds on Sunday will not have the potential to be as strong as the low slowly tightens up a bit more, thus reducing the expanse of gradient winds. Low level flow becomes more diffluent as well, reducing rain chances. Coastal convergence with the land mass on the lee of the Gulf Stream as the low drops further south and opens up again toward afternoon should result in a more NE wind component up and down the east coast, with a chance of light fast moving sprinkles or showers and an expanding low level cloud deck across more of the state Sunday, and especially Monday as the low starts to retrograde more toward the W or WSW. At its furthest southern most latitude it should be offshore somewhere  east of Ft. Pierce to Sebastian inlet, but that position holds no bearing on sensible weather conditions (those that can be seen and experienced) for Floridians. Winds Sunday in the 15-22mph range, spreading inland during the day and lifting by late afternoon as the pressure gradient decreases.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Low slowly fills and winds slowly lower to the 12-20mph range in the afternoon, spreading across the state during the day as the low drifts in a general west direction well offshore somewhere between Melbourne Beach to just north of West Palm Beach. By now, after 3-4 days of onshore flow the air mass will have been moistened and temperatures modified, with overnight lows inland in the 60Fs to upper 50Fs and lows at the coast in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, cooler toward JAX/St. Augustine and perhaps by this time Ormond Beach as well due to  prolonged upwelling of deeper/cooler ocean waters from the offshore gale force winds.


WEDNESDAY: Frontal boundary will be on the approach while the surface and mid level low are at their closet position to Florida. The mid-upper level low will open into a trough and lift north as the approaching trough from the west is sensed and starst to become absorbed within the mean flow. Surface winds will back to the NNE-N or even NNW on Wednesday, by which time the fully modified air mass will warm into the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs most anywhere. 


Wednesday has the potential (at this point) to be a very showery day across the entire East Half of the State from sunrise to just about sunset with NNW-N winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon with the closer proximity of the trough, but this will be watched in coming days to see if things can be a bit nicer in that regard.


THURSDAY: It is odd to have a N-NNW wind PRECEDING an approaching cold front, when normally they would be from the south. As the front approaches it encounters the narrowing wedge of high pressure between the' by now' filled low/trough which lifts north and regenerates toward the coast of the NE states. This wedge will likely squeeze out much of the rains and possible storms that could occur into the Panhandle region as winds back to westerly Thursday afternoon while the front approaches. 


West winds with a high in lower 80Fs depending on timing of the front. The front could go through nearly dry for most of the Peninsula, based on the evidence of the GFS with each consecutive model run going from wet, to less wet, to barely wet, and now dry. Northwest winds Thursday night with fropa and FALLING temperatures.


FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The GFS is taking back what it read yesterday, and is now calling for a "break out the parkas from storage" yuckcast, early winter like (by Central/South Florida standards) day with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs state wide. Highs on Friday might remain in the 50Fs. Another cold morning Saturday with highs in the mid 60Fs. But again, the GFS could be over playing the temperatures. Might not put that on the check list of 'honey dos' though, just in case.


The sun has now been up long enough, here is the VISIBLE satellite image of the SE states as seen from a camera from space:

BEYOND: Rejoice. Long range has been very consistent from run to model run with developing easterly winds becoming SE if not SOUTH for a good 5 days if not longer with highs in the lower 80Fs during peak heating and lows in the 70Fs (which looks a bit warm to me)..more than likely mid-upper 60Fs and highs lower to mid 80Fs (South Florida).

Cold Front Clears State Tonight, Nor'Easter Conditions Through Monday

NOW at 7:15AM - Cold front progressing down the state with rain showers over the Tampa Area to Jax and into Ormond Beach near Daytona. Increasing clouds precede and accompany the cold front which have entered the Orlando Area while the Cape Area remains clear at sunrise.. Est'd front positions and times of those positions in dashed lines.
Showers will become less likely the further south the front progresses, most likely along the Gulf Coast Side toward Ft. Myers with some lighter drizzle like rain occurring on and just behind the boundary from Central To South Florida  

TODAY: A cold front is working down the peninsula from NW to SE with temperatures in the Panhandle in the 40Fs. Preceding the front, temperatures along the immediate east coast are cooler than the past few days as expected given the loss of the onshore wind component which blew across Atlantic water temperatures in the 70Fs. Temperatures this morning south of the front are generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, although some lower 60Fs are being observed west of US1.


The front should cross the Beach-Line toward the east coast between 11:30am to 1:30pm and be accompanied by mostly cloudy sky conditions, and some patches of drizzle. Skies will begin to clear up in this area from Orlando and east after 2pm, with partly cloudy to scattered clouds working toward late afternoon with some better clearing after 5:30pm, whereas South Florida should then be in whatever cloud cover the front can still muster up.


Temperatures today across Central will top out in the lower 70Fs due to cloud cover preceding the front during peak heating hours whereas far South Florida could work into the low-mid 80Fs in Dade, Collier, Broward, and lower Palm Beach Counties. SW winds precede the front and WNW-NW winds follow in the 10-18mph range.


TONIGHT: Front will have cleared the state, and expect a fairly rapid temperature drop as the sun goes down everywhere behind the front, mainly Central and North Florida with clearing skies and lessening winds which will be gradually veering to the NW-NNW overnight. Temperatures falling into the low-mid 60Fs by 8pm Central and colder north Florida.  Temperatures along A1A will likely bottom out around 4-5AM and hold steady right near 60F but much cooler west of the intracoastals the entire East Coast with lows falling into the upper 40Fs west side of Orlando and South to interior SW Florida with a broad expanse of of mid 50Fs toward Miami Metro and Ft. Lauderdale. In essence, nothing has changed from the expected in yesterday's post.

SATURDAY: The surface low accompanying this front will be moving off the South Carolina Coast and be sliding slowly toward the ESE-SE through the day. Florida will be on the backwash side of the developing low and on the front end of high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and NE States behind the frontal boundary. Increasing NNE-NE winds by Mid Afternoon with a chances of sprinkles right along the coast with increasing winds in the 18-27mph range from Ft. Pierce to JAX. Here is the GFS representation of this scenario per its 2AM EDT Model Run.

SATURDAY at 2AM. Sprinkles possible at the coast, but mostly expecting cloudy skies. Low that is shown will drop SSE-S another 100 miles at most and remain nearly stationary through Sunday

SATURDAY NIGHT: The GFS is very consistent from run to run, and although it varies slightly with the ECMWF well offshore, the impacts to Florida are not really all that significantly different to bother going into a description on how they differ. The NAM is again most aggressive with the wind fields showing a near gale at the coast. It also shows only specific areas to get rain fall, while most areas are dry. For the most part, Saturday looks dry except that pesky field of very light rain at the coast depicted by the GFS, which looks more to me like mist, especially since the forecast sounding reflects some slightly drier air at the 1000 ft level. Any rain to fall from the already shallow deck of moisture (dry above 6500 ft) will have to do so through winds of 25-40 kts before reaching the ground. Chances are, it will be dry on Saturday until after dark.


SET THE CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR. We begin Daylight Wasting Time.


Despite the stronger winds at the coast and up through 5000 ft, they will decouple quickly at night, thus inland winds will become more northerly, drainage type with cool over night temperatures , but not quite as cool as Saturday morning. Each morning becomes slowly warmer, and winds decouple again Sunday night into Monday.


SUNDAY: The strongest winds appear will occur late Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday during the late morning through late afternoon. Sprinkles or mist could turn to showers for a time Sunday afternoon with winds at the coast in the 18-27mph range, although winds just above the deck could be a bit stronger. This still needs better confirmation though, since the potential is there for winds in the 32mph range (at least) which is getting to the 'very breezy' to windy level. Showers could occur up and down the entire east coast on Sunday as the low drops to its lowest southern latitude well offshore , which could spread into the interior during the course of the noon-5pm time frame. Highs in the lower-mid 70Fs, perhaps a bit warmer toward South Florida.


SUNDAY NIGHT: Winds decouple once again, with more northerly type winds of 4-8mph over the interior (west of I-95) while coastal winds remain NE-ENE at 12-18mph with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70Fs right at the beaches and cooling by 10F degrees further inland with the drainage flow. Mist or light showers still possible, but again...have an inkling to hedge toward only cloudy.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winds gradually will decrease for good not until Tuesday night with sunset, predominately in the 18-24mph range at the coast with shower sprinkles again penetrating inland during the day once winds 'recouple' with the stronger 2000 ft level winds after sunrise and spread to the west during the late morning. There could be a time frame when winds become more ENE but those will start to back more toward the NNE to even N on Wednesday as the low pressure area starts to fill and lift north.


The latest GFS has one new twist. Better rain chances along the east coast on Wednesday as the low opens up and allows deeper back wash moisture to back into the coast rather than be wrapped around the low while it was more tightly wound. Meanwhile, another cold front will be approaching the state which puts a quick end to the rain chances later Wednesday afternoon with decreasing winds (which will have already been noted by Tuesday night).


The low off the coast will be stuck in a very progressive split jet stream flow pattern over the U.S., but will act as a bit of a block out at sea. Eventually, the block will break and the progressive pattern will affect Florida as well heading into Thursday.


***NOTE: During the course of this Nor'Easter like event, winds will have a very LONG FETCH off the NW Atlantic. Seas could build well offshore with extra high tides which could cause some minor beach erosion issues in some locations. Needed to say, rip currents and rough seas will be a big boating and swimming hazard, although not sure why anyone would want to go in the ocean to swim under the cloud cover and 'not so warm' temperatures in the 70Fs...with equal ocean temps. Tourist beware. This could make for some good "Victory At Sea" surfing for the experienced who don't mind a strong drift down the coast. I always preferred heading out at one location and not fighting the drift, with someone to pick me up 5 miles down the coast a few hours later.


BEYOND: Very progressive pattern indicating TWO fronts to impact the state Thursday and again toward the end of the weekend. Best rain chance is with the first front on Thursday afternoon and evening.


Winds oddly enough never even get southerly preceding the next front, but instead back to N to NW-WNW-W as the low off the coast lifts north and the next front moves in. The GFS last night had a big cold shot of air with this front taking temperatures in the 40Fs almost state wide (  which seemed suspicious this far out in time since the GFS has a history of over estimating low temperatures beyond 120 hours). Sure enough, the newer run is no longer showing air that cold, and suspect the next run will be even warmer. Very progressive pattern continues with a strong southern branch jet of 100 kts across Florida and an equally strong branch just to the north of the state (but how far north is the great unknown).