Late Showers/Iso-Storms Interior North - More Over Weekend

Forecast track of upper 500mb trough/low for later today and located near SW Illinois. This image shows the annotated previous location per red arrows from Arizona in the previous post and how, in general, it has proceeded ENE ward the past few days.

This image shows the approximate location for Sunday afternoon..note
the displacement from Illinois SSE-SE ward toward northern GA. Florida
is at this time now in strong winds (blue) aloft

FRIDAY: Happy Spring Renewal Time !  Did you get the cobwebs cleared from winter mentality?  I hope there is a spring in your step and mind. The skies and temperatures over Florida have been fabtabulous with few clouds, and quite warm...wow!  Much more in that regard for South and South Central today, but interior (later today) and North Florida is a different story.


If you received a blog post yesterday and actually read it, it is time to inform that was not of my doing. The 'poster blog system' erroneously sent out an old post. Apologies if this lead to any confusion. 


Today the upper low will have little effect on the state except toward the Western Panhandle toward Tallahassee as we will see further down in this post. Further east and south into the peninsula it appears ample moisture will be available for a late day east/west coast sea breeze collision time over and near the spinal interior, especially toward JAX-Gainesville region, and possibly working south along the east/west coast seabreeze collision late toward Western if not Central Volusia County.


Further showers could be set off well toward the SSW into Polk County at least, as I see the Storm Prediction Center is playing one model that far south. Although, I am siding more with the GFS and RUC and current trends..so without any activity South of the Tampa latitude looks 'questionable' as of this hour..but the region of all encompassing possibilities is included in this graphic.

 and this one

NOTE: this is the latest radar image, see the severe thunderstorm warning along the Florida/Georgia Border as indicated by the yellow box. This area is shifting Eastward slowly along with the upper low. The orange is where thunder could occur today..very spotty if at all south of I-4, but would not sell Lake County Short if not Polk (not shown in orange). I left a 'gap' across Northern (central). This line of reasoning is because believe activity shown on the peninsula will be due to sea breeze collision activity and outflows from that.

Saturday**: Frontal boundary to continue eastward, although poorly defined at the surface yet still; however, the activity that is being generated to our NW in the Panhandle today will re-emerge on Saturday toward Central Florida. Per trends of past three days, and fairly good model agreement, believe some activity (very very isolated) could be "strong" with small  (marble)  hail all East Central. This looks like a case on Saturday for a stronger side-shore type 'sea breeze' to form toward mid-late afternoon remaining pegged along US1 toward I95 at most, with steering aloft toward the E or ENE at 12 mph or so. Instability will be ample but not truly 'amped up' to warrant a higher threat . Temperatures aloft around -12C at 20,0000 ft and near 5C at 10,000 ft. (compared to -5C and 10C respectively  in summer, we can see those temperatures aloft tomorrow are much colder than in the summer when we have some strong storms by at least 5 degrees). But, it will still be warm at ground level. Models agree on Vertical Velocities (upward motion) very consistently model run to model run near and east of Orlando exiting off Central Brevard toward 6pm or so. With this line of reasoning, thunder storms seems a good bet somewhere across East central toward Tampa mid-late afternoon through early evening...and one or two could be on the strong side. Does not seem SPC will issue a "See Text" soley due to the isolated nature of this 'potential' activity, and if at all, mostly along the I-95 toward US1 to off the coast zones.

Sunday: The frontal boundary to be pushing through Central mid morning toward noon. Showers and thunder could again form during this time, especially after 11AM toward South Central. BUT, details get sketchy this far out in time though, especially since the  previous GFS is much faster than the NAM.  As of this morning, the GFS is slowing down though, and this seems feasible. With that , thunder again possible from the Central Dividing Line (affectionately labelled in these posts as the "Magic Dividing Line" running along SR528 ...) into South Central...and perhaps even SE Florida toward Palm Beach County./Dade mid-late afternoon and early evening...before the front clears the state.  

The Front: This front will be more or  less acting like a non-dynamic 'dry line'..but not anywhere near that seen in the Central Plains. Although Monday morning could be a bit cooler than past mornings and damp, sunrise will yield to much drier air as low level moisture mixes out into the dry air just above ground resulting in a warm and dry air (literally and figuratively) day Monday afternoon with a NW wind. Good day to hang the clothes out to dry if doing laundry. No rain expected again for a few days beyond at this point.  

Cont'd Breezes - Wednesday Showers A Good Bet

IMAGE Depiction,  per the latest Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Forecast Model,  the jet Stream position later today at 30,000 ft (feet). Note the unusual southern extent. Coldest air at ground level this time of year is typically near and north of the jet stream, which explains then the snow in parts of Arizona. This also shows how warm air has managed to reach across all of the Eastern States into the eastern Plains and as far and further than the Canadian Border as has been the case for several days. This trend was well depicted by models several days in advance.

TODAY: During the course of today the trough shown above will move slowly east north east in general into the weekend and be a rain and potential severe weather maker from time to time along its course.  An associated cold front will be a very slow mover as a consequence, considering today is only Tuesday. 


Weather appears  fairly juiced up for eastern Texas into Louisiana later today and northward to a  limited extent for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes, but a outbreak of any sort is not anticipated. Meanwhile, high pressure circulation continues the Florida east coast onshore flow. The pressure gradient will be holding its own tonight through tomorrow as winds become a bit more SE toward tonight. Additionally, forecast model trends are sticking closely together, depicting a well defined 'bubble pocket' of high precipitable water (PWAT) air to move in after sunset to after midnight toward the southeast coast which is then to work north and west through the course of Wednesday.


WEDNESDAY: As noted above, higher moisture content air to spread in over night.  This moisture appears to be getting drawn toward that humongous trough to the west as it steadfastly shifts east  ever-so-slowly toward the Mississippi River. Below is a hand-made graphic showing where this moisture and potential showers will work in. I did not include thunder for the early morning activity, although I could be selling the weather short. Latest NAM forecast weather balloon soundings do not appear to exemplify an atmospheric structure which would be support a cause to argue for thunder producing showers early on, or not at least until later in the day. By that time, the leading edge of the bubble of elongated moisture will be well inland during the course of daytime heating. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is not indicating thunder tomorrow other than toward Gainesville, but I am not prepared to deny areas further south some thunder as well as shown in orange below:

Above graphic for Wednesday. Green along east coast shows better moisture for producing clouds and showers spreading WNW per the black arrows during the day, reaching NW Interior toward western lake County, Ocala (perhaps) toward Gainesville after 2pm. Meanwhile, the east coast areas should be ending with the rain chances by mid-late afternoon, although clouds will remain present to a certain degree. The moisture for these showers, coming off the Atlantic appears it could work toward Alabama or Georgia in the next two days.


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: The deep elongated trough will be 'cutting -off' in the next 48 hours. Meaning, a closed low will form. Although model guidance is in fairly good agreement right now, closed lows are messy business to contend with in regard to how fast they will press onward, and in what direction. However, given the present circumstances combined with those yet forecast toward next week (more below), it seems relatively safe to assume they have nipped this closed bugger in the nip. 


Given that notion, best now to stick with model agreement but no-thing is dead pan certain concerning the weekend weather in regard to rain chances for Florida as a consequence. 


Lest we be left slap jawed and dumb happy, latest guidance indeed shows for a chance of thundershowers and/or showers, especially on Sunday as by now the cut off low is moving off the east coast or near to close to it. A weak frontal boundary will be entering the area of Central mid Afternoon Sunday. Winds by Saturday will have already started to become much more southerly on Saturday if not SW-WSW on Sunday. There is a chance there will be an east coast sea breeze pegged east of the spine of the state if not closer to the coast Sunday afternoon as the front sinks down the state. Best chances of thunder appears to be North Central to Central east side and south to Dade County beyond 2pm Sunday...


BEYOND: History repeats itself in more ways than one. Another deep trough to move into the West coast akin to a pattern we might see in a La Nina January, or reflective of it.  That combined with a negative Atlantic Oscillation (AO) would be the culprit I am 'thinking' for the "double dose of deep upper level troughs parade" toward the U.S. east coast. It is this approaching trough that will boot the prior cut off low as just noted out of the picture toward the early portions of next week, yet to make room for the next one to the western U.S. 


And now, the rest of the story...This next one could be even more extreme than the previous, so be ready to hear more weather ready recaps on the national news networks, The Weather Channel, onward and upward...up through next week... 

Strong Storms "Possible" Today - Wretchedly Windy Coastal Weekend

Note Captions. Factors pro/con for any storms today in the body of this post. Any storms that can manifest today , especially after 3PM have the potential for hail and/or strong wind

TODAY: The boundary/front noted yesterday continues Southward as forecast now across the Deep South, although the timing of its approach and passage on Saturday is a bit sketchy now per the morning North American Model (NAM). This post is based mainly on the current trends locally though, the RUC, and the GFS model, and an earlier run of the HRRR model (which I have not viewed again during the past 2 hours, so things could have changed). It is worth noting that should the NAM verify, conditions will not be quite as 'wet' which is feasible given the current situation atmospherically across East Central Florida, with better conditions for a storm or two <not shown here> toward Martin County , St. Lucie, or even Northern Palm Beach Counties. Otherwise:


Cloudy conditions over East Central this morning should break up a bit by noon time. Light sea breeze Central and North Eastern Coasts likely after 12-1pm, but should not make much   inland penetration beyond I-95 or 'so'. Temperatures aloft are quite cold today, with 500mb running around -12C per the KSC morning sounding (in the summer with our storms they were a much warmer, 8-10 +C ; this makes for a good 15-20C difference in how cold aloft the air temperature is today as opposed to during the summer. Cold air aloft makes for strong storms. 


The atmosphere is much drier today than in summer, but drier air can equate to more isolated activity allowing for storms (if they manifest) to not compete for the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that will be available, which is less than in the summer. It also allows for decent of cold air thru the drier layers, making for strong wind gusts at ground level. 


In short, we have competing factors pro/con for storms today. A 20,000 ft (500mb) wind increase is expected to surge across the north half of the state toward early-mid afternoon which should add additional lift to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. A con for storms would be the poor lapse rates showing up on the NASA/MLB LDIS graphic,  but those seem to be becoming more supportive during the past three hours as time goes by.


Steering today from Central to North Central will be from the west to east around 10 mph; however, the very cool sea-breeze will likely prevent any storms from penetrating much further east beyond the east coast sea breeze boundary, sapping them of strength due as they 'ingest' this cool air at ground and low levels of the atmosphere which causes activity to 'erode' along the forward moving flanks of the storms as they enter this relatively 'cold' sea breeze.


As such, storms (if they do occur) 'could' appear to move very little due the persistent 'progressive erosion from the east coast sea breeze. With this in mind, it is possible that some areas if storms manifest could see up to 1.00" of rain west of I95 toward Orlando, Osceola , Seminole Counties for starters, but any such manifestation will be very isolated. With the cold air aloft in place any stronger updraft in a generated storm (again - the pre-requisite for any storms in the first place is an updraft of significant strength which is a bit in question) could produce hail and frequent lightning . 


The NWS (National Weather Service) alludes to a potential of small hail. Whether or not it reaches severe size (1.00" in diameter) is definitely debatable considering the other factors that are either lacking or those that are too weak to support severe sized hail today. I suspect storm motion will be rather slow either way, but considerable cloudiness at least will over spread much of the entire Eastern Central State by later today due to shower or storm cloud debris moving from east to west above the depth of the sea breeze boundary. 


As noted in the above image caption, activity could be very isolated due to persistent East Central Cloudiness early today. If those do not break up, all bets are off for strong storms, with possible storms (or one) further south toward the NE-E shores of Lake Okeechobee.


Any rains, wherever they may (or may not be), should cease shortly after sunset with lose of daytime heating.


SATURDAY:  As noted a few posts ago, it looked like a repeat of the previous windy front (although at that time this was a questionable presumption, admittedly).  Meanwhile, the cold front will mainly be sliding off shore the U.S. East Coast to the North of Florida with the tail end skimming past Central anywhere between 7AM Saturday morning to mid-afternoon. For this post, I'm siding with the GFS consistency over the NAM's; this too, bears watching though. Either way, this 'backdoor' type front will be accompanied after passage by increasing NE-ENE winds of 20-23mph with gusts possible of 36mph near the east coast, as well as some showers from near Volusia County to coastal Brevard from the time of its immediate passage and up to 12 hours afterward. Very breezy, especially near the beaches overnight Saturday night.


SUNDAY: The wind surge due to high pressure building rapidly eastward beyond the front will force the moisture convergence band (remnant front) southward and down the east coast overnight Saturday and into Sunday as rain chances go to zero for Central. Wind will continue breezy, although not quite as strong as what potentially lies ahead for late Saturday and  Saturday night.


Rip currents will be a 'big deal' this weekend, considering the insurgence of  inexperienced guests from the northern climes who may not be as fretful of entering iceberg temperature water.

Variable Clouds, Eastern Showers Possible, More Likely Friday

Afternoon synopsis per the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Weather Forecast Model. Note the boundary now across the southern toward the NE portions of the U.S. Much rainfall is occurring along this boundary as has been implied for several days now. That boundary will be pressing east and slowly sink south into Central Portions of Florida early Saturday, barely!

TODAY: At least the wind has let up today, and as such coastal afternoon high temperatures will be warmer with less impact of wind blowing over cool water and sloshing the cool ocean air into those communities. Otherwise, little change in the local region. As can be noted above, a high pressure 'ridge axis' from a high centered yet further off the image will move very little although should sink slowly south with time as the front moves east. All in all, it appears that frontal boundary will barely clip the eastern shores of Central Florida before complete frontalysis occurs, leaving only a remnant moisture convergence band which could work down toward South Florida before even that depletes itself (Sunday time frame going into Monday). Meanwhile, comfortable temperatures in the mid-upper 70Fs and warmer west half of state and possible showers and overnight lows in the upper 60Fs to near 70F along the east coast, especially Brevard and South.

In the image I've colorized areas that could see a shower today ..the lavender in general is where the greater concentration of rain has been occurring along an old moisture convergence band from the previous frontal boundary. This band has lifted north a bit from Broward County (yesterday and earlier today into Palm Beach County ). Do note the  'enhanced 'area off Indian River County in this image. Radar shows showers moving toward Central and North Central Brevard, but at this time they are 'eroding' as they close in on the coast; possibly  due to cooler near-shore waters. Whether those showers will make it to shore is yet to be seen for the most part, and this has been the case for a few hours today so far. However, the blue area along Brevard mainly indicates that 'something' could very well reach the coast by mid-afternoon through at least mid-evening.  

FRIDAY: There are still indications that if it is going to rain solidly almost anywhere in the next few days (other than the area in South Florida like today) it will be on Friday from just north of I-4 and south. The GFS is very generous on this possibility from early morning (at the coast) to the entire state along those bounds as heating of the day commences. Suspect there could be some thunder given the cold air aloft, but there is little in triggering mechanisms other than perhaps some mid-level disturbance (minor) per the GFS. The NAM continues with advocating a possible sea-breeze collision toward Orlando (west side) late day in which case I believe would be thunder; other than that, it speaks little to rain chances elsewhere.Comfortable 73-77F degree readings. 80Fs west side of state away from any potential east coast sea breeze.


SATURDAY: The frontal boundary shown above will slide mostly eastward but sink south with time. In doing so, it will  absorb within the high pressure area depicted and wash out (frontalysis). Moisture will remain present ahead of this boundary, along it, and just behind it through Sunday as it side swipes Central Florida toward Palm Beach with time; thus, clouds and possible showers seemingly like today are possible through Saturday working from northeast Florida toward Central, and eventually Sunday (South) with a lower likelihood. 


As such, acting like a backdoor cold front as it were, a wind surge is possible behind the boundary remnants working down the coast as well with winds for a time similar to that of Wednesday. The fun-n-games with this boundary all regions should be over with by Monday through Wednesday at least with no change in the temperature regime of something like that of today..with little to no rain chance.


BEYOND: The next front so far is showing to behave in similar fashion if even that, with the overnight GFS showing no FroPa (frontal passage) going into the 3rd week of March. Realizing, any forecast beyond day 6 under the current circumstances is suspect...beyond the normal "template of suspicion" which is usually about 3 days. Sound the all clear.

Winds To Taper Off Thursday As Chance of Coastal Showers Increases

Latest Satellite Image as of 11AM EST. Note: 1) To the right is the white line delineating a break in cloud types associated with high pressure in the middle levels. Those clouds appear to be missing most of the state north of the line, although an offshoot of them continues to impact the coast which will likely work across the state during the noon hours. 2) The Blue arrows show the motion of some high level cirrus clouds impacting mostly the North 1/3 to 1/2 of the state from time to time. These clouds could increase in days ahead, especially later on Thursday into Friday. 3) The green area is where showers are and could occur today, working north with time (yellow) to as far north as Southern Volusia (light blue) by Thursday noon time. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should persist.

TODAY: Very breezy at the east coast beaches spreading inland during the day. Winds will remain overnight at the beach but be notably less 'breezy' heading toward mid-evening, while they decrease significantly inland and away from the beach. Overnight lows similar to last night with mid-upper 60Fs along the coast and mid-upper 50Fs inland. Showers around the Keys would work north into Dade County later today.


THURSDAY: High pressure NE-ENE of the state in the mid-levels and surface reigns supreme; however, near the 850mb (5000ft) height the ridge will weaken and pull off more to the east of the SE states into the Atlantic and in doing so the wind at this level will become more Southeasterly to SSE and draw the shower generating moisture well to the south of Central northward. 


Expect that moisture convergence along the east coast accompanying this mid-level moisture up through 10,000 feet will potentially have enough atmospheric depth (just as if one were to go deeper into the ocean of water, we can go deeper 'upward' into the depths of atmospheric moisture except it is coming to the east coast instead) .  In turn, showers could form mainly east of and along I-95 and work north toward Southern Volusia perhaps by early afternoon on Thursday. It appears the area further to the west in the state will remain too dry for showers but either way the clouds persist as winds all regions die down even further.  Outside of showers continued warming with highs in the upper70Fs toward lower 80Fs on the west side of the state in particular.


FRIDAY: Higher clouds (the blue arrows) will continue as they ride over a bit of a 'dirty ridge' (the clouds) located well aloft in the atmosphere to the west of Florida. Those cloud will be generated by moisture from a trough located near the Desert SW Region moving into Texas, ejecting high level moisture up and over the ridge and across Florida...thus spillage of high clouds, or 'dirty ridge syndrome'.  Outside of those clouds, the low level ridge will be close to Central Florida with very light winds. Sea Breeze convergence and if enough heating can work in during the day, destabilization enough for a possible thundershower in the Western Orlando area toward Eastern lake County or Northern Osceola County. Sea breeze although light but very cool in comparison to inland highs in the mid 80Fs  on Friday will keep any showers or storm from reaching the east coast with the light steering currents in place by that time as well.


BEYOND: Continued moisture in place over Florida as the frontal boundary which will likely be quite problematic for parts of North and Eastern Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee (in general) becomes stretched from East to west and sinks slowly south toward Central Florida. Showers could be in our area with this boundary as well during at least the first parts of the weekend if not the entire weekend for the north 1/2 of the state (and possibly southward as well) although for now the more likely scenario spells out at least more opportunities for clouds. No cold air yet is on the way!!   


This  boundary might come in to being a big player for a repeat of what we are experiencing today but with rain showers as well. The next boundary behind the forthcoming boundary of this weekend (which will create showers) might not even reach Florida at all.


 Recall: The previous front which made it fairly cool for 36 hours made it to the Florida Straits and washed out (the showers down there today), then the next boundary should make it toward Central (this weekend), then the next one sometime next week not even that far south. Thus, each front is progressively making less southward penetration across the state, and in turn, no cold air.


In closing today's observational and preliminary (and quite unofficial analysis) forecast, I've noted that sea surface temperatures are generally running nearly 5F degrees warmer than they were last year around this time for the area off Cocoa Beach and North.. ..which can be attributed to the fact that this has been a mild winter all along the Eastern United States from North to South.  This could play in to future forecasts as we head toward the last week of March and into April in regard to a number of things yet to be determined.

"Cat Does Not Try To Wise. It is All She Knows"

Quite Pleasant (!) Today - Backdoor Front Tonight

Global Forecast System Model (GFS) Valid Valid For 1AM tonight (Tuesday early). As noted a few posts ago, another boundary would skirt by to the north; and high pressure, as we see above, will rapidly press eastward behind it. The result being a surge of NE-ENE winds overnight tonight toward early Tuesday, especially toward daybreak with increasing low level type stratocumulus clouds as well during the day

TODAY: "Chamber of Commerce" Day in store with highs in the low - mid 70Fs. Clear sky and light wind from the WNW-NW ahead of another frontal boundary. This  frontal boundary referred to a few posts ago will skirt by to the north mostly, but the tail end will cross East Central Coastal area 2AM overnight tonight in 'backdoor fashion' (from the NNE direction as opposed to from a westerly direction as fronts normally more from west to east). The winds in the mid-levels by that time will already be from the NE despite surface winds from the north (light) before then. As the front passes we could have a 'surge' of stronger NE-ENE winds and increasing low level moisture from the Atlantic, most notable all day after day break Tuesday.


TUESDAY: Believe it will be 3-6 degrees cooler mainly Central and North on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs toward the east side behind the boundary's passage with stratocumulus clouds all along the entire east coast. Warmer south. By late afternoon a few sprinkles are possible mainly north of Vero Beach close to the beaches. Guidance is 'up in the air' over exactly how much if any rain will fall. Believe the NAM rainfall showing measurable amounts central by sunset might be over-doing it, but will monitor this and continue to compare with the GFS which shows nothing but sprinkles (at most) except increasing chances toward far South Florida heading into Wednesday.


WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: No change in the pattern. Winds could be a bit gusty, especially at the east coast beaches Tuesday-Friday with periods of stratocumulus clouds gradually abating with time to a lesser degree, probably spreading inland during the late morning hours, with some sprinkles at the coast (possible). Low and high temperatures will vary very (very) little along the immediate coast between night and day (by perhaps 7F degrees) and remain in the mid to upper 60Fs overnight and lower-mid 70Fs day time. In other words, east coast temperatures will be dictated by those of the near shore waters.  Again, will need to monitor for showers, but as noted yesterday it appears the depth of atmospheric moisture will remain too shallow to foster much more than a sprinkles other than toward late Wednesday far South Florida and Keys.


BEYOND: So far, no cold fronts are shown to impact Florida for quite some time as a short-lived 'blocking pattern' aloft sets up well west of Florida in the South Central Plains toward the Mississippi. 


This pattern, although preventing fronts from reaching Florida while high pressure and onshore winds continue over the state, will generate persistent stormy and/or rainy (heavy) conditions toward East  Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Western Tennessee specifically. If any severe occurs it looks like it will Louisiana and Southern Arkansas, and perhaps West Mississippi. 


Expect we will hearing in weather headlines in days to come a new story going from tornadoes (as was the case) to floods from late Tuesday through at least Friday in that area.  


For Florida, to verdict is in for  little change over much of the state (especially toward the north half into week 2 of March);  could have more clouds and rain chances as well once that blocking pattern starts to break down and shift the remaining moisture eastward toward middle of next week. When the pattern will break is up for grabs though despite (in my opinion) what the models are showing. No temperature issues at all for Florida are shown for the next two weeks (fingers crossed); thus, indeed that cold blast of a week ago as noted previously might have  been the last one of the winter .  Any rainfall this time of year is welcomed as we are now and have been in 'the dry season'.    

Clearing Through the Noon Hours - Much Cooler Through Mid Morning Monday

Front on Radar (Time noted)

A Severe Warning went out for near Daytona Early and in this location around 830AM

SEE TEXT For Today. No changes otherwise from previous post

BIG Weather Changes Statewide Through Sunday

Current Noon Satellite Image with 'Blog Regions of  Consideration' Through 2pm Sunday.
Details in Text Below. Note captions in Full as Written in the Text. (this image also points at the "Lake Shadow" (of cloud free sky) right now due to SW winds blowing across stable Lake Okeechobee water's air)

TODAY: Cold front has entered the far western Panhandle of Florida and will progress only slowly today toward the east. A weak but stretched out area of low pressure is to form as guidance all shows along the Northern Gulf which will slow down southward progress during that time frame today and into most of the evening. Therefore, SSW-SW winds to continue today, with highs in the mid-upper 80Fs Statewide. It is possible that winds will increase a bit toward dark as far south as Dead Central as 2000 ft level winds (at 925 mb-- millibars) increase and translate to the ground. After which time, winds will remain overnight tonight from the SW to a slightly lesser degree except in the area immediately ahead of the front in North and North Central Florida toward early Sunday morning before Sunrise.

Current Front Position and this post's (not official) projection of its location
through 7AM (orange). The front will clear South Florida between 2-3pm Sunday. Also not the areas where Severe weather is 'possible' , but not everywhere. The chance of severe thunderstorms decreases south of the southern Red Line, although this is questionable,   threat could exist yet as far south as lavender if not more so.  (Thinking the front could be delayed by as much as 2 hours) 

TONIGHT: Continued SW winds tonight and increasing clouds after dark from north to Central after 3AM. Overnight lows in the 60Fs after midnight. The front is shown by morning models (which are in close agreement) to be close to the Central "Dividing" Line (near SR 528 on the east side) around 7:30-8AM. Rain chances should begin generally one-two  hours prior to frontal location. Surface winds also increase around the same time. One can take this projection and translate it southward with time for those interests in far South Central and South Florida heading into late morning toward noon.


EARLY SUNDAY/SUNRISE: First off, I notice the latest RUC has a mid-level 'wind speed max' now showing up around 2AM west of Central Florida in the east central Gulf. This feature, if it is true, could result in needing to throw in a "Severe Risk" further south than the lavender line above and more toward Okeechobee as well as a slight delay across Central of the front's passage. 


Otherwise, be prepared for a period of rain and strong wind in the vicinity of heavier rain showers as the front approaches and possible severe winds (at or above 58mph as noted in the graphic). Winds just above 'the deck' are forecast to be nearly 50 knots at least, so down drafts if in only rain showers could result in surface winds in the 50-55mph range for a brief time as far south as South Brevard. 


I have included a schematic from the GFS model of the forecast Jet Stream Winds at the time the front crosses Central as a reference. These winds will never cross South Florida to such an extent, and realize also that the strongest mid to lower level atmospheric winds appear will pull out and across Florida north of Lake Okeechobee in the 35-55mph range (thus, the less chance of storms further south), given the steering of these winds at higher atmospheric altitudes.

NOTE strength of winds at jet stream early Sunday in blue squares, and front position at the same time. The fronts position in this graphic assumes a slight delay in passage across Central as opposed to the earlier images.

SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH DARK: Outside of any severe weather threats (mainly only in wind south of Volusia County) and the good chance of some measureable rainfall (mostly north of a line from Vero Beach to Sarasota) ...to a lesser degree further south, prepare for a RAPID FALL in temperature behind the frontal boundary by as much as 15-20F degrees in the first 1-2 hours if not more. Thus, the high temperature on Sunday for folks in Central will occur near sunrise, with a noticeable fall after 8-9AM. Temperatures in the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs for instance could fall into the lower 50Fs by 11AM- noon. After and during this time, we can expect rapidly clearing skies and much drier air to move in on brisk NW winds of 15-32mph .  Only expect a slight rise in temperatures toward 60F, but winds will keep things on the cool side regardless.


LATE SUNDAY: All but perhaps the Keys will have cleared. Very cool temperatures.


MONDAY EARLY: Given the now lighter winds that will occur a few hours after sunset, but continuing from the NW-NNW, it appears one of the coldest spots in the state could be toward South Brevard County of all places and into Indian River County. 


All locations west of the Barrier's of Brevard and south will likely be in the lower to mid 40Fs, but would not be surprised to see upper 30Fs in the area noted above as well as much further north. Sky clear with lower winds, although heating on Monday could mix some winds to the ground to make highs in the low-mid 60Fs feel 'too cool' by comparison, but really not bad out of the shade. But this will be short-lived as winds die down toward late day. Outer Barriers of Brevard and A1A corridor to the south could see a low closer to 50F. 


TUESDAY: Little change in philosophy from past posts. Winds to becoming ENE overnight, with a possible surge in winds with some clouds by late morning if not sooner. No rain but highs in the upper 60Fs to lower-mid 70Fs possible already.


WEDNESDAY and THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF NEXT WEEK: Easterly winds for the duration, possible gusty at the coast after day break each day in the 12-22 mph range. Possibly more cloudy than not near the  east coast with a chance of sprinkles or light rain at any given point in time as Atlantic startocumulus clouds work ashore, although not much (if any) accumulations expected. The atmosphere will be too dry above perhaps 5000-7000 ft above ground, hardly enough depth of moisture to generate anything beyond a sprinkle or quick rainshower.   

BDoF Tornado Threat Far To Florida's North, Storms 'Possible' Early SundayCo

Cold front position forecast this afternoon with low pressure centered over Indiana. The area in orange is  'my personal annotation' for where very strong, tornadic (tornado producing) type thunderstorms with strong winds and damaging hail could most likely occur today. That area is most definitely not all inclusive as will be seen in the next graphic.

TODAY:  Big Danger on Friday (BDoF) - Dynamically powerful early March storm system and related cold front is driving across the Mississippi/Ohio  River Valley Basins today, while in Florida the weather is not unlike that of a peaceful, early April-time. This will be the case again tomorrow in Florida with even warmer temperatures. Sea Breeze east of I95 if not US1 I expect will manifest within the next hour (it is now 1:45pm, Friday). Highs in the mid 80Fs and lower 80Fs near the coast. No rain. 


Meanwhile, further to the north exceptional wind dynamics mainly are the core reason for generation of thunderstorms that start to rotate (likely as rain-showers and before even becoming thunderstorms) further north. Winds from accommodating directions for cyclonic rotation coupled with 'energy' and cold air aloft could generate strongly wind driven large hailstones and vortexes of wind energy in vertical columns, tornadoes. Some could be long tracking and quite strong. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, OK and likely ALL news networks in the most to be effected areas are heralding the alert for this potential. One can turn on The Weather Channel to keep up to date. In fact, as I type there are 5 tornado warnings in place over a part of the very large area of concern. See below:

This graphic is for the tornado 'risk' determined by where a plethora of weather conditions combine just right to result in rotating storms. This lavender area is matched up nicely with the core concern for this blog's purposes in the first image. This image is updated at scheduled times by SPC which also issues Watch Boxes. Warnings are issued by respective National Weather Service (NWS) offices in any area that such a storm is manifesting or already in progress, whether that storm is or is not in a previously issued 'watch box' . This graphic does not show the wind and hail risk as well, although for the most part they overlap. The tor risk is a smaller than the much large general severe weather risk area.

FLORIDA SATURDAY: Another day of warmth, possibly near record highs East Central from South Central toward Daytona Beach. No sea breeze and only a few clouds as the cold front moves into the SE states and the panhandle. The front will enter the panhandle slowly Saturday night with a chance of stronger storms in this location as well. I have made a 'personal edit' to the last issuance of the SPC day 2 outlook as can be seen here:

Based on 7AM morning model runs, there is a slight chance
of severe storms overnight Saturday into early Sunday per the official outlook area, The southern orange line  "could" be extended as far south as shown, but do not that is only a personal observation based on model trends. This is due to the strong wind fields the morning model runs are showing that the previous runs (on which the original graphic is based) did not quite show those winds.

SUNDAY: Very close model agreement that the front will cross Central from NNW-SSE between 5am to 10am (north to south)..and cross very close to Orlando around 7:30AM Sunday morning. Strong wind fields just above the deck could result in either thunder or simply rain with winds in the 45mph range at least if the morning model runs verify, especially on the east side of the state.  A very powerful jet stream wind departing just to the north of Florida will place all of the state in the 'left exit region' which add substantial lift to the atmosphere, and the latest models are showing winds at 2000 ft over 0ver 40knts exiting off the east coast from near Indian River County and north through 11AM or so.  Chance of rain dead central to begin close to 6AM and abating by 12pm time frame...with a possible thunder chance extending further south to the keys (not shown in the above image either).


The front will be close to the Keys by  2pm, with clearing over Central commencing around noon time and working south with time. Expecting dead central to clear rather rapidly near the 12:30pm - 1:30pm (already clear further north) time frame with brisk NW winds to follow and very cool temperatures. Believe afternoon highs will remain in the low-mid 50Fs most areas Central and North.


Do not be fooled by the high temperature forecast you might hear for Sunday. I suspect that temperature will occur very early near sunrise, and only fall through mid-afternoon from the time the front blasts through.
Sunday night lows in the low 50Fs immediate coast to mid-upper 40Fs inland and north as winds decrease overnight, but all in all it seems that temperatures far east central will fall then level off during the late afternoon and remain so through the night.


MONDAY: Much drier, sunny with light north winds and highs back toward the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs South but starting off very cool (mid 40Fs - mid 50Fs A1A corridor Canaveral and south). That was quick. A slightly elevated secondary boundary (part of that big storm system to the north) will skim by Monday night and with that passage and high pressure building rapidly behind it from the west north of the state winds to become NE by Tuesday morning and strengthen by mid to late morning. Thus end'eth any cold spell. 


TUESDAY-THURSDAY: At this point, guidance continues to build mounting high pressure to the north then northeast of the state with onshore winds continuing all 24 hours of day from the ENE-E by later Wednesday . 


Very 'temperate' temperatures near the cool ocean waters with little variation between day and night ...but warmer toward the west coast. Slight chance of light rain mainly east 1/2 of state if not only east of I95  late Tuesday and all of Wednesday.


BEYOND: Big discrepancy in morning model run from before. 


Previous runs showed this strong high pressure to hold tight for nearly one week with onshore winds continuing and a chance of clouds/showers. The latest run, however, brings another cold front toward Friday with a good rain chance. Ironically, though, it then commences with a similar weather pattern of strong onshore winds once again shortly after its passage. Thus, either way. it appears that from Over Night Saturday through all of next week at least we will be in for a bit of a 'atmospheric culture shock' in terms of how it will NOT be anything like the past few days have been. Good news though, little in cold air except for Sunday and then a few mornings west of I95 and toward the far interior and west side. 

Warm Through Saturday, Isolated Showers Possible

In Green is where isolated showers 'could' occur today ( already in progress toward SE Florida late this morning) although quite small in stature. More details follow below. In Orange is where a rumble just might be heard after 3:30pm -9pm if a slight seabreeze can manifest and remain east of or near US1. This chance (of thunder) looks very remote however.

TODAY:  Frontal boundary manifesting toward the East Central Plains to move through the Ohio/Mississippi River Valley Basins tomorrow with more severe weather likely, as relayed in the previous post. This system (tomorrow) to the north of Florida will not be the last to impact areas near and east of the Mississippi River in this first week of March (one more to follow ). The early morning image taken from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) website shows where those experts are watching in terms of severity coverage:

SPC Example from early day today. The next version to come out  later today will likely differ but the threat is clear. Many areas that were hit by severe weather toward Kentucky and through Southern Ill/Indiana could be hit again tomorrow.  

OTHERWISE - Locally. SW wind today with sunny to partly cloudy skies will result in warm temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs with upper 80Fs possible toward East Central interior. Winds just above the deck are also SW, but not so strong that a weak seabreeze could form but remain very close to the coast during to just after peak heating hours between 1-2:30pm. It appears that although no model shows an easterly component wind, they might not be considering the density of the cold air just above the cool ocean waters at this time of year. Thus, a sea breeze could manifest, but likely remain east of US1 or I95. Possible showers especially later should the sea breeze manifest. The first image shows possible thunder in orange, but if so this will likely be limited to one or two heavier showers assuming they can manifest at all. The fact that showers are already occurring toward Eastern South Central and Southeast sections and that showers manifested yesterday toward interior and eastern sections yesterday (later in the day)...should be at least construed as a potential harbinger for late day activity as noted above.  


TOMORROW-SATURDAY: With each day the chance of a sea breeze developing becomes less likely (especially on Saturday) as the storm system's frontal boundary approaches and pressure gradient southwest winds increase. Would not be surprised to see low 90Fs readings eastern portions of Central and South Central , especially on Saturday with near zero chance of rain that day (and no sea breeze). The far east coast, especially the barrier islands have a propensity to 'overshoot the high temperature forecast mark' on a solid "SW wind day" as we enter March. This winter was not horribly cold for any long duration, and even short duration cold spells were rather rare, thus water temperatures are not as cold this time of year as they were last year during the same time frame (early March).


SUNDAY: Change begins and to last through most of next week. Phase one of the change will  be the cold front now indicated to pass from North Florida beginning Saturday to reach Central very close to sunrise give or take 2-3 hours either side of the Central Dividing Line running east - west from SR 528 and West toward Tampa. Most precipitation will occur right along the boundary and behind it due to some over-running. The GFS could well be playing out the high temperatures behind the front in too extreme a  'cold' fashion as is often the case with this model, considering it showed overnight that highs will never make it out of the low-mid 50Fs on Sunday after a warm early start to the day near sunrise to mid-morning. The NAM is much less aggressive and in opposition depicts highs in the 60Fs on Sunday. I suspect the high temperature on Sunday WILL occur prior to 8AM Central either way. Not ready to take a leap either way at this point as to how cool the afternoon temperature will end up at this conjuncture; either way, Sunday stands to be at least cloudy with light showers possible through noon toward 2pm, with high clouds clearing slowly toward late afternoon. South Florida remains "prefrontal' until early afternoon, so more convective type showers and maybe thunder possible portions of South Central and South through 4pm (Keys) at most. Showers are the more likely mode, and much later to ever clear prior to sunset.


Otherwise, very cool to cool all day Sunday with a breezy NW wind slowly dwindling toward sunset and overnight, although not completely.


MONDAY: NNW-N winds and continued cooler with highs in the mid/upper 60Fs to near low 70Fs, mainly South Central/South. Scantily Partly cloudy.


TUESDAY- FRIDAY (at least): A secondary front just above the deck near 2000 ft will complete the transaction of the entire system's (well to the north) passage,  and bring winds around to NNE-ENE during the day on Tuesday. Thus ends the cool spell with very temperate ( very little) variations between overnight lows and daytime highs (especially near the coast) with a steady and breezy onshore flow taking control. 


This flow will be rather moist in a shallow layer, and it appears now extensive low-mid level clouds could be in the offing, as well as showers near the coast most likely beginning Tuesday afternoon through at least Saturday. Thus, much of next week looks less than ideal as opposed to this week currently in progress of drawing to a close.    

Above Normal Temperatures Through Saturday

Visible satellite image shows were the morning fog (some quite dense) exists this Wednesday morning. The layer of inversion supporting the fog appears to be fairly thin, so it should be burning off late morning. As the fog lifts, it will manifest as clouds across the northern 2/3 of the state which will press toward the east to ENE through mid-morning 

TODAY: Morning fog in many locations, no temperature issues. High pressure at the surface (per light wind) and in the mid-levels supplied by ample shallow moisture is the culprit for the fog, with that moisture being trapped by warmer air just above the ground. The inversion of temperatures per morning sounding and short-run model (RUC) forecast soundings indicate this inversion is shallow so the fog should be able to break up as heating occurs. With light winds aloft from near calm toward the east, low clouds could manifest as the fog breaks up and advect toward the east..but those too will thin out some working toward early afternoon. Otherwise, most locations will see the low 80Fs today with inland areas into the mid-80Fs easily with light inland winds and SE winds near the immediate coast (but light).

The blue zig-zag lines are a depiction of surface axis or ridges of high pressure centers. Not that the fog is closer to the location of those lines.

THIS WEEKEND:  Prior to the weekend, namely Thursday-Saturday warmer yet still with highs most areas in the mid-80Fs and perhaps a few upper 80Fs as well, partly cloudy sky. Winds light again this evening become SSW-SW Thursday through Saturday. A cold front is approaching and should be able to tweak through sometime very early Sunday near daybreak and continue south to the Straits before becoming absorbed once again by high pressure (as was the case with the previous frontal boundary), after which time we will experience 2-3 days of slightly below normal temperatures but nothing earth-shattering (into Tuesday).


It appears there will be a cloudy and possibly showery period along with the boundary and behind it mainly, to persist a good  6-12 hours after cold frontal passage (Sunday).

Perhaps two days of highs reaching 70F or not quite even that, but morning lows will not get below the mid 40Fs (North interior), toward low 50Fs immediate East Coast Central to warmer yet all of South Florida.


NEXT WEDNESDAY:  Wind will become more onshore toward early-mid week and strengthen. Plentiful stratocumulus clouds and low topped showers could begin by Tuesday, especially toward Wednesday. From that point on it appears a more synoptic (large scale) pattern is to emerge for the U.S. So far, no cold air on the way other than the upcoming cool spell, but rain chances could pick up significantly with the on-set of stronger onshore winds mid-late week next week and beyond prior to the next front. Looks more like 'late fall' type pattern as opposed to early spring.

Generous Rain/Thunder Chances Monday - Is 'Winter' Over for South Half?

TODAY'S 500 mb/millibar (20,000 ft level)  wind forecast for this afternoon. Continuity  shows that the closed low over Mexico as mentioned in previous posts is no longer evident today, but instead is shown as a mere 'trough' (red line) moving across the northern Gulf Coast. Extensive cloudiness and showers combined with 'evaporative cooling' could keep temperatures in the mid-40Fs to lower 50Fs near I-10. Chance of rain/showers/sprinkles most likely in green, and minimally  'possible' as far south as SR 520 later today and early this evening, albeit not extensively so. Evaporative cooling is caused by rain falling through cold , dry air, evaporating into the drier air toward the ground but causing the air temperature to remain much cooler if not fall more so than would otherwise be expected.

TODAY: Major "Yuck" factor along I-10 today looks to be the agreed upon consensus in model guidance. Extensive cloud cover as short wave mid-upper level trough crosses this area with embedded rain showers, some possibly moderately heavy later today. There is no instability in this fast moving parade of disturbed moisture, and dew points remain very low. Thus, as rain falls in to the dry air it will drag down cold air which will evaporate 'some' of the rain and cause air temperatures to remain relatively low.

The first image was for the  500 millibar (mb), around 20,000 feet aloft ,  level winds. This is for the same time frame at ground level. Breezy ENE-E winds most of today and damp. The low is still evident in the SW Gulf but will wash out later tomorrow. The old front is sketched in (perhaps too far south toward the Florida Straits), but either way..whatever is left of it will work north tomorrow along to where the dotted black line is shown and eventually even further north. The focus of rain will be nearer that boundary...but also out over the Gulf Stream waters east of Central Florida. 

Meanwhile further south of the better rain chances today, ENE wind most of today becoming easterly tonight and eventually ESE on Monday. There is a small chance of rain as far south as the MLB toward SR 520 line, but the gradient of rain to 'no rain' line will be closer toward I-4 on the East Side of the state toward the Brooksville area on the west coast. Highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs most of central due to cloud coverage and  recovery from the meager cold frontal passage the other day. Low-Mid 70Fs more likely toward South Central and all of South Florida. Some showers possible over the Keys for the first part of the day as well.


MONDAY: Cloud coverage continues, so over night lows to remain in the low-mid 60Fs most areas. The area of low pressure that was in the SW Gulf will begin to break up later today..and bits and pieces of 'energy' (vorticity) will traverse across the state as a result after or near daybreak and through the day within a flow similar to what is shown in the top image (above) from west to east.


The main focus of energy so far is depicted to cross those areas that will not be in the rain today. Thus, everyone gets a shot at the rain between today and Monday.  The main difference tomorrow will be that instability will be much more sufficient to make for a chance of thunder most anywhere from North Central through most of South Florida, but South Central to Central seems so far to be the 'target area' for thunder.

This is a FORECAST of jet stream winds on Monday. Note the divergence of winds (separation) over Central Florida. This area is also expected to receive the brunt of 'energy'. With surface based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) approaching 1000 units or more and temperatures in the mid-upper 70Fs inland showers/thunder possible in the orange zone most likely. Purple is where an even better chance exists, especially out over the Gulf Stream waters EAST of the Cape Canaveral area. On shore flow could 'exasperate' the rainfall potential from far Eastern Flagler  County southward to Martin County near the A1A corridor.    

There is a chance some heavier rainfall could occur along the SW Coast as well as the easterly low level flow stacks up against the mid-upper level westerlies. There is a large disagreement in early morning model guidance concerning that possibility.

Either way, the 'pool' of moisture as well as the 'energy' responsible for Monday's rain chance is all expected to pull off to the east before sunset although not entirely. Realizing that this post for today is based on data spit out at 2AM Sunday morning based on real-time information from 8pm (eastern) last night, much refinement as to timing and rain location details is desired, personally; however, based on the continuity between models this morning from previous runs, there has been little change since yesterday afternoon's results in model output...saying  something for consistency's sake.

BEYOND: There is a chance of showers and maybe some thunder on Tuesday interior and west side Central and South later in the afternoon, but elsewhere it will continue to warm toward the 80F mark each and everyday, particularly nearly statewide  by Thursday. There is no large significant 'drying' trend as far as clouds from time to time is concerned; thus, anyone anywhere could be in and out of some clouds from time to time, anytime. Wind will become southerly to eventually SSW-SW by Thursday/Friday time frame at which point east coast temperatures will possibly reach the mid 80Fs , and maybe more so depending on cloud coverage. The next frontal boundary poised for next weekend may not even make it beyond Central Florida if even the I-10 area. 

WINTER and OTHER CONCERNS?: In regard to cold temperatures, there has been no indication that any cold spell beyond One Day well into the first week of March is possible. Although it is too soon to say definitively so, we are reaching March at which time cold air intrusions seldom if ever pose a situation worth concern beyond one or two days, although cool periods can continue for quite some time to come.  

The other 'concern' will be in regard to Severe Weather. Although not necessarily for Florida, there will likely be at LEAST 3 Severe weather events to occur in the Deep South early this week through March 7th from Louisiana east and north through Mississippi/Alabama/part of Arkanasas/Tennessee and further eastward as well (other possible areas are possible in even more expansive coverage) . Whether Florida (any part of the state) will get into the 'action' is questionable, but not to completely disregard. March is often considered the "Severe Weather Month" (Severe Weather Awareness Week has already come and gone)...although the worst tornado outbreak in the State's History occurred in late February of 1998 nearly to the day.

Very Warm/Breezy Today, Clouds/Showers Thru Mid-Week

TODAY at 3pm per RUC Forecast: Rapid Update Cycle Model forecast shows the general positioning of approaching cold front through the SE states. Note two things: 1) area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche area extending to the north. This is evident IMPORTANTLY into the mid-levels near 5000 ft.; 2) Upper low over Mexico; this will be a factor on Sunday as it moves east and north, by picking up the MIDLEVEL portion of that low in the GULF. Colors show were storms or showers are possible over Florida today (Panhandle).

TODAY: A cold front is approaching the state, with passage through the state expected to be complete by shortly after noon time on Saturday. Meanwhile, ahead of the boundary, SW-WSW wind today much like yesterday although a bit breezier and very warm, similar to yesterday with all areas reaching the mid-and maybe upper 80Fs. Morning stratiform clouds will burn off through noon-time with a jump in temperatures after noon- 1pm all areas except toward the panhandle where clouds are more predominant and will be more extensive, and where some showers and possible strong thunderstorms could occur, although it appears most of them will be north of I-10 as of this morning's trends.


TONIGHT: Front will work down the state, possibly accompanied by a very thin band of showers and low rainfall totals due to the stretched out nature of forcing along the front. Rainfall, if any, should be less than 01.0". (one tenth inch). The front is expected to slow up a bit across North Central to Central around sunrise, then pick up momentum again after sunrise clearing Dead Central sometime after 4AM-8AM as it works toward South Central slowly.The front could be accompanied by brief showers and NNW winds, becoming possibly gusty, finally reaching the Keys and into the straights by early-mid afternoon.


SATURDAY: Call attention to the area of low pressure shown in the SW Gulf as well as the upper low shown well to the west. Those two could merge in a sense and reach across the Eastern Gulf and Florida by Sunday afternoon. In reality, our surface cold front will be very "shallow", not extending much above 3000-4000 ft, whereas at 5000 ft (850mb), the depictions show that trough aiding the surface front will hang up across Central and then lift back north on Sunday (along with that moisture with the low pressure area in the SW Gulf) as the upper low/trough translates eastward across the Deep South.

This is also for 3pm today. We can see the upper low. Note now that even though our cold front tonight and early Saturday will be south of the state, on Saturday this slow will be still well to the west and moving east. The net affect of this low will be to lift the mid-level 'frontal boundary' from Central Florida back northward with southerly winds aloft and ENE-east winds at the surface on Sunday, creating warm air over-running, extensive cloudiness, and showers across the North Half of the state nearer the 850mb "warm front".

SATURDAY (Cont'd): After frontal passage, winds will be NW-N early on, slowly veering to NE later in the day. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies 'could' persist over the South 1/2 of the state, with a brief shot of cold air advection impacting the north 1/2 mainly. Highs in the low 60Fs, although would not be surprised to see upper 50Fs wedged in toward the Cape and north along the coast and into the interior of North Central Florida. The south 1/2 of the state will be much warmer though, possibly by 10-14 F degrees toward Miami-Dade/Keys...although clouds could be a nerve wracking persistent. Winds becoming easterly overnight with a small warming trend along the immediate coast as the come onshore across the ocean waters, accompanied by some clouds as well.


SUNDAY: Upper low well to the west now approaching along the I-10 for West Florida will tend to 'buckle' the frontal boundary at 5000 ft (850mb) which appears will never really clear Central Florida at all; hence, a shallow frontal boundary passage. As the front buckles north and the upper low moves east along and over it, so to will the area of low pressure in the SW Gulf be broken off 'piece meal' through Tuesday (at least). Abundant moisture will lift north over the state, with possible thunder SE Florida and along the West coast by later Sunday or Monday. The driving factor for precipitation / clouds will be much colder air aloft and some energy as opposed to surface based instability. Cold air not far above 'the deck' will air in mid-level lift along with isentropic lift from southerly winds above, all the while wind at the ground will be easterly becoming ESE-SE on late Monday and later on to the South toward Mid-Week before the next frontal approach.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR shows DRY air over Florida in the mid-upper levels (orange like color)..with moisture obvious by the whites. blues and greens. Note storms over Central Georgia in this moisture shot as well as SE Mississippi. The green line across Florida shows where showers seem more likely on Sunday, but the remainder of the state will become 'game' by Monday and Tuesday, if not a portion of Wednesday.. 

  
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Now getting further out in time, the degree of uncertainty as always becomes a big player for this time frame in regard to how, where, and why rain will fall in specific areas. Thus, to broad brush and not go into details, it remains that ample moisture will remain with a warming trend well in the mid-upper 70Fs as winds veer more toward the Southeast (SE). The mid-level 'warm front' will be well out of the picture, but the moisture will not be. Thus, expecting period of showers if not storms toward either coast on the south side of the state..showers elsewhere, but timing is near impossible to ascertain at this time. Cloud coverage looks to be a good bet though.


WEDNESDAY: Looks like a 'maybe break' in the clouds but not entirely, In fact, we do not see a drying out possible until at least next weekend. Thus, it appears all of next week will be at least cloudy if not more so. The next front may or may not even make it across the state, stay tuned.