Showers, Some Thunder, In and Out Clouds Through Sunset

As Can Be Seen at 1:30pm, cloud cover is offsetting destabilization of the atmosphere
to some degree today, yet east of that frontal boundary now nearly stationary, the air
mass over all is nearly uniform and quite moist. Lack of boundaries / good trigger but  an analyzed vorticity max near the SE Coast  may set off a chain reaction of Northeast bound showers and thunder increasing in number and strength especially after 3pm from South and South Central Florida (primarily). 

TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown is a bit joined at the hip with an inverted trough of low pressure coming off the Yucatan. That trough is part of a very broad area of weak low pressure across all of the Caribbean extending into the far SW Gulf.  The air mass east of that boundary is fairly uniform, with poor low level lapse rates due to early day clouds and warm mid-level temperatures making for unfavorable early start on the stormage action. Regardless, if we can get more of the high clouds out of here, Deep Layer Convergence is showing up south and over the Big Lake, and with steering toward the Northeast at around 20-25kts (possibly)..changes could be forthcoming toward mid-afternoon in the form of showers and some thunder especially north of the Lake and more so into Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Seminole and Southern Volusia Counties from around 3pm until 8pm., especially if the Lake Shadow plays into the action.  Winds gusts in and near the showers or thunder could be strong, even in only rain showers but those cases if any will be isolated at best.  Activity should have not much of a problem moving swiftly offshore with lingering cloud cover through sunset as some lighter rain patches persisting should the convective wheels get set in motion during the next hour or so.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary could advance a bit more toward the SE as moisture continues further north by that time over-riding the boundary. In that regard, the better rain chances tomorrow could be further north and west,, but overall other than some cosmetic low level wind direction changes the mid-upper levels do not change all that much other than that the wind speeds in those levels begin to lower.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: The boundary by Thursday appears will be all but gone, but moisture persists making for difficult to time rain shower chances, although this could end up being a diurnal cycle showers scenario for the east coast in the early morning shifting west and north during the day time, but not exclusively so.

A frontal boundary is going to be coming together across the Central Portion of the country, but just exactly how or when that boundary will cross Central Florida and the remainder of the state is uncertain considering current timing suggests well out to Monday of next week.  In that regard rain chances, although nothing significant is foreseen, remain in the picture up until that time frame. Only the direction from which they come from changes.

Good Shot At Rain and Thunderstorms Today - Tuesday

Chance of Larger Rainfall Totals but nothing Extra ordianry along the East coast, first best guess shown in the Purple Area

TODAY/TUESDAY: Frontal boundary easily visible to the left in the above image extending into the Gulf.

East coast side shore to slightly onshore will aid in convergence with predominantly increasing SSW Flow aloft  should work and speed up earlier outflows and boundaries northward into Central and Possibly NE Florida, where there is a chance of some stronger activity due to better wind shear, although best instability might be near and South of I/4.  Not much different tomorrow as it looks now...

WEDNESDAY: Boundary sinks into Central but becomes rapidly diffused and stretched out as the parent low is well to the north over the Great Lakes Region at least...high pressure starts to reassert across the remaining boundary with a bit of an inverted trough extending from the Yucatan to Central Florida providing for at least one more day of better rain chances before decreasing some, but not entirely into next weekend. No temperature changes appreciably worth noting.

Pattern Shift Now Occurring, Rain chances Increase

Complex mid-upper level pattern developing today over the NE states
and South Central into the Northern Gulf. The trough further south will not effect Florida directly later today, but will do so Monday and Tuesday before possibly lifting out almost due north to NNE by mid-week

TODAY: As expected , noted 48 hours ago (per the GFS weather forecast model), full pattern swing is in place today. Onshore easterly winds will be less prevalent today, remaining close to the coast as upper level westerlies and mid level SW winds, albeit light increase by mid afternoon. High clouds over parts of the state seem to be getting ready to clear to some degree. The GFS has been consistent with showing the greatest instability from south of I-4 to Miami, mainly due to some drier mid-level air further north.  The Short Term Analysis at the Storm Prediction Center access point (aka, Mesoscale Analysis Page) shows this well via high down draft CAPE values, working toward the Beach Line (Dead Central zones). 

If so, it might be hard for thunder to come by today in that area except toward I-95 and east from near Titusville and southward. It is possible some thunder could be experienced therefore in North and Central Brevard County today after 4-5pm, although the depiction below shows only rain showers as storms might have a hard time shooting high into the atmosphere against the down draft CAPE in the presence of warming upper level temperatures. 

The better chance for thunder is shown in orange.  As noted above, the upper level temperatures are expected to warm later today as warmer air aloft is drawn northward ahead of a strengthening low pressure area to our west also previously shown.

Again, Northern More zone at this time lacks drivers and instability, but the GFS is showing some rain along the east coast later today all the way up to JAX (which is not shown in the post today). It also shows possible thunder in Brevard (also not shown). There is no sign of thunder producers being imminent as of noon time with few cumulus clouds (the harbingers of thunderstorms) showing up on satellite imagery and days are getting shorter. But, changes are in progress as we read and write in the grand, synoptic scale. For purposes of today's post, have taken thunder out...except as shown in orange.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much better chances of rain and thunder many areas as moisture increases from the South, being pulled northward ahead of a low pressure trough deepening and shifting east ward.

WEDNESDAY: This too could be another transitional day if the trough to our west begins to lift northward. If so, mechanisms for the east coast thunder machine could begin to wane, yet, moisture remains under the auspices  foreboding the chances of coastal and offshore showers and inland daytime thunder; but, thunder could occur almost anywhere really, with limited nocturnal activity toward the beaches. 

There is no "down for the count at any particular time" rain-outs lurking around the next bend, but rain chances  do remain to be accompanied by  warm over night lows and continued status quo day time highs in the limelight through the remainder of this coming week into next weekend.

Summersolstically Inclined Trend Foreseen

Splish Splashing Outlook Continues Be By  Land or  By Sea

TODAY: Not much different today than yesterday. Upper level temperatures this morning are surprisingly  very cool at 700 - 500mb aloft, but warmer 500mb air is expect (around 20,000 ft aloft) later today as high pressure at that level expands east ward across the Gulf as it gets spread out by an approaching and developing low pressure level boundary in the form of a cool to stationary frontal boundary over the weekend which is shown later in the post.

Otherwise, with respectable mixing ratios and deep layer convergence now occurring over the South Half of the state, suspect that is there that the bulk of the showers and thunder will occur, first along a slowly developing sea breeze as showers closer toward the coast with possibly thunder near the eastern side of   Big Lake Okeewhatever  with outflows and later day storms manifesting as instabiliyt builds with the full onset of the east coast sea breeze inland.  Any strong storms it appears as of this hour will be from near Yeehaw Junction and South into the Glades and western portions of the Broward/Dade Miami Metro areas.

Most activity very isolated except maybe late today. Activity over South Florida could move off toward the SW Coastal regions as indicated but overall shower and storm motion will be extremely slow to indiscernible

WEEKEND: Frontal boundary taking shape from off the coast of Maine South and westward into SE Texas by tomorrow. This boundary will serve as the main focus of rains all along that region especially near Coastal Texas to Southern Alabama and maybe Pensacola, with the brunt of rainfall occurring right near the region of Louisiana impacted heavily by the Hurricane a while back.Rainfall totals could climb toward 8" or more locally if the GFS (Global Forecast System) weather forecasting model verifies . 

Locally, not a big change tomorrow from today for Florida, with only a hint of the boundary getting closer to the Florida Peninsula prior to sunset Sunday.  In that regard, inland thunder but isolated again possible Saturday and more so on Sunday with some coastal showers possible before and at the time immediately preceding onset of the east coast sea breeze (like today). 

Continued warm and even more muggy on Sunday as this summer like pattern becomes more reminiscent of the Dog Days of mid-August rather than post Autumnal Equinox.

Watching that low to form near Central Texas which is forecast to shift east into next week toward Louisiana, never really reaching Florida as it stands now. SW Steering aloft is expected over the state Monday - Wednesday, showers and thunder much more likely during that time frame most areas, esp. Tuesday.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Increasing showers and thunder chances through Wednesday after which time the GFS becomes (as would be expected) less consistent in regard to the evolution of the synoptic scale pattern over the Eastern United States, especially over Florida. 

The only agreed upon resolution within that model's robotic mindset is that cooler weather is no where to be seen into Mid-October if not later than that unless a big shift from the trend occurs. This is a bit unusual, as by now we would have experienced a cool morning in the upper 60Fs at the beaches if not statewide which has yet to materialize. None is yet to be found or foreseen though.

"Beware of False Prophets"  

Big Pattern Change Is Being Projected By the Weekend

Pool Side Blooms Leave Honeysuckle Aroma Many Yards Away

This Morning Near Sunrise

Early Model Imagery shows the potential for a mid level trough to form northeastward from the Gulf toward Early Next Week, after the trough currently (as shown) over the northern states presses on east 

TODAY: Small, light showers near and north of I-4 inland a way could linger off and on as high cloud jet stream cirrus clouds (mainly) continue which began yesterday across much of the peninsula. The jet streak (wind speed max well aloft), might lift out late today before sunset, and if so, we could see significant clearing many areas about or before that time later today. Otherwise, mostly cloudy due to high clouds and some mid clouds  with possibly some showers as noted below.

Meanwhile, little change to the current pattern, although suspect the high clouds could be on the wane by tomorrow as steering aloft is expected to become more westerly; no longer from the moist, source region near the SW Gulf.  The GFS has been showing for several days off and on an inverted like trough to form once the trough over the Great Lakes presses off the east coast over the weekend, allowing the mid-level trough to re-emerge and form a broad, moist swath off 'troughiness" across Central Florida (somewhere) by late weekend into much of next week, much like an 'elevated warm front'. 

The net result would be increasing rain chances especially toward the weekend or so into much of the first week of October. The details are too vague at this point to get into finer details, but for now it appears we could be in for more cloudy/showery, and possibly some thunderstorm like conditions contingent upon where (and if) that boundary materializes. Little change in temperatures are being projected out through 10 days, although as days grow shorter mornings could be a bit cooler and with cloud cover so too the afternoons.

Similar To Yesterday, Slow Moving Showers and Thunder

SUNRISE Cape Canaveral with rain storm back drop, TODAY, Saturday

See Captions above

TODAY: Another short blog post today. Biggest concern for east coasters in Brevard is for an Air Show scheduled. Clouds will be in the picture all day putting a damper on high flying "Bird" viewing, but outside of that winds quite light, crickets chirping, and a moist atmosphere will provide for drifting rain showers and thunderstorms as noted in orange. Note that those orange thunder areas are a first best guess, but are there as shown as well to indicate 'sparse thunder' rather than to signify exactly where it will occur.

SUNDAY: Rain chances might shift further south yet as a mid level impulse passes to our north. This is the theme for the next 10 days..mid level impulses and/or very shallow surface fronts making only benign daily to three day changes to the overall pattern, but no significant wind or rain is shown outside of toward South Florida where some local flooding has occurred this morning and where moisture will be most prominent for several days.

Cape Canaveral Sun Rise Storm Approaches the Coast off the Atlantic

Mainly Showers and Some Isolated Thunder

Soupy and nearly stagnant low to mid level air mass under divergence well aloft should allow ample shower and some thunder formation today. Steering is very slow at 8-12mph (tops) , and with moisture over-loading in that slow motion would expect most storms not to move far from their source before weakening. Early evening cloud cover along much of the east 1/2 of the state is possible due to cloud debris accompanied by spacious sprinkles.

BEYOND: Little change into the weekend with rain chances decreasing some by later Sunday. Could be quite a bit of cloud cover for the Cocoa Beach Air Show, or less than pristine conditions for viewing certain elements of the show.

The earliest autumn since 1896 arrives this Saturday, September 22, at 10:49 A.M. (EDT). At this time, the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from north to south.

Isolated Thunder Far East Central Portions Late Today

TODAY: Frontal boundary has moved little since yesterday and lower level winds have weakened a bit as a reflection of what will eventually happen to the boundary in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, winds just above the deck are only a tad weaker today as opposed to yesterday but I expect they will weaken yet more as the day progresses. This should allow the east coast sea breeze to set up along the east coast, but make very little inland progress, maybe just toward US1 up and down the east coast except further south of West Palm Beach.

The best convergence will be near the front; however(!) - <gotta love ('howevers')>, it appears there is little in the mid-level moisture parameter north of I-4, and south of I-4 toward Melbourne is starting to dry out as well where convergence will not be as formidable for storm formation.

Conservative Approach to Shower and Thunder Coverage today, Possibly overboard
on the Strong Department Since any Strong Storms might be short lived. Strong due to wind gusts

Otherwise, the area that has cleared out since early day cloudiness is all but SE Florida, and with shorter days now in tow, this area might never realize enough destabilization for thunder. Drawn in is a Green zone, but this 'could' end up being thunder late today as well with a better chance of sea breeze collision away from the coast over the Glades. Otherwise, under the supposition there is a least a "side shore type sea breeze and up the intracoastals (but very light)", best convergence and upper level divergence will be along the east coast from Melbourne Beach and North under the drier mid-level air and thus stronger down draft Convective Available Potential Energy. With that said, some brief but strong wind gusts in the 38-50mph range are always possible near and east of I-95 mainly. Storms will move (assuming there are some after 4pm through 7pm) toward the ENE-E, and maybe work a bit ESE near Canaveral along outflows a tad slower than yesterday, but would anticipate that many roads across East Central will have another period of dreary dripping heading toward sunset, if only from showers.  All continget upon storm initiation/location  .

BEYOND: Thursday looks a bit similar to today with slower storm motions and better chances yet still of a sea breeze convergence. The front will sink just maybe a bit further south and continue to become more diffuse/indiscernible during the frontalysis process, while the upper level trough and winds remain positioned for SW flow aloft. Thus, chance of showers and some isolated thunder continues close to the surface to mid-level boundary, mainly Central and North Central .  

Continuing the road ahead, we're seeing only light onshore easterly flow and close to no- flow at the steering level, leading to a drifting inland shower regime with coastal showers also possible from the Cape and south to Miami. No change in temperatures,

Pattern Shift Has Begun - Showers and Thunder More Widespread Today Statewide

Sunrise on Monday, Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Long-awaited (for some) pattern shift has arrived. What is meant by 'pattern shift'? We have been under the influence, intoxicated by easterly flow (onshore east coast winds) for quite some time.  Today herald's a shift in gears to SW flow at the surface and aloft as a frontal boundary draped up and down the entire U.S. East Coast presses eastward across the far Northeast states southward well into the Gulf of Mexico. This could mean a warmer afternoon toward the east coast south of I-4, in particular, and far South Florida with delayed onset of rainfall chances. Rain and thunder is already occurring under the cloud cover shown in the satellite image (below).

Quite a bit of lightning is occurring over North Florida early this Tuesday morning. This area is under the best 'upper level wind dynamics' which weaken the further south one proceeds, especially south of Dead Central Florida toward the Big Lake of Okeechobee. Outflows from activity further north look plausible to move in over the region north of I-4, so that area might be a bit stabilized by "that 'air' " before full heating of the day (which is now earlier due to earlier sunset and later sunrise) can be 'realized', or come to fruition/occurrence. Therefore, watching further south.

TODAY: Some storms could be strong, but brief due to fast motion, toward the East Coast south of I-4. The only reasoning being is that outflow from earlier activity and increasing cloud cover further north might cut off destabilization (as noted in the above caption); whereas, further southward, better heating accompanied by a bit of divergence aloft (not really significant) under SW flow aloft which is quite moist could pile up some heavy rainfall in short periods accompanied by lightning strikes 'afrequent' (under the assumption thunder storms can develop there alongn the 'red zone' shown).  

The off setting 'proverbial fly in the ointment' is that the east coast sea breeze today does not look likely to develop except maybe briefly before the frontal boundary gets further Southeast ward (and slows down significantly tonight presumably) south of Fort Pierce.  Meaning,  1) no chance of low level convergence; and 2) this will not be a summer time/like rain chance regime today where sea breezes or Lake Breezes are the biggest player (except far south).

Latest KSC sounding is showing 23 kts of wind around 2000 ft which will at least try to mix to the surface, so would expect no sea breeze today, possibly unusually breezy along waters and lakes for this time of year from a SW direction. 

The 700mb temperatures are not cold at all, although 500mb temperatures are cool enough that water over-loading aloft could translate in cooler temperatures in to the mid-levels regardless, for gusty winds in and near heavier showers and/or thunderstorms. 

Either way, guidance is split on activity today with the NAM going extremely low key as it has been for three days now in regard to storms and even showers, with the GFS showing a good chance to likely  along the east coast from Melbourne or so, southward..toward Fort Lauderdale. The best chance of an east coast sea breeze is well south of the Lake, so it may be that area will end up with a big storm.

Overall though, the air mass over much of the peninsula south of I-4 is fairly uniform early today, so the driving factors for this afternoon into early - mid evening might be from outflows resulting for earlier activity further north working southward into areas where heating has built up. 

The down fall of this is that outflows without a conflicting sea breeze can act purely to stabilize the atmosphere. Unless a vorticity max comes through, today could be a big bust, but not willing to hedge bets on that one this early in the day. In short, today's post is a 'play it safe just in case post", and speak of the worst case scenario, which is good rainfall and thunder coverage working south after 1pm through early evening. And this stabilizing factor seems more likely near and north of I-4 and less likely along the east coast south of Ponce Inlet.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary is expected to wash out in the next 2-3 days across all of Central Florida in a wide swath, with the upper level trough never clearing the area (nor the true front)...rather, it gradually gets replaced after frontalysis by high pressure from the north without any drying of the atmosphere, followed by a light onshore flow re-asserting itself by later on Thursday or Friday. Either way, showers will remain with temperatures running about where they have been lately, either coming in off the Atlantic or inland showers and thunder.

The earliest autumn since 1896 arrives this Saturday, September 22, at 10:49 A.M. (EDT). At this time, the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from north to south.

 Coupling Up For  the Cape Canaveral Sunrise

   

Isolated Thunderstorms Mainly From 4pm to Dark

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday, September 6, Thunderstorm

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday sums it up, with only a few conditions that point to less favorable for widespread thunder. Morning sounding, as expected, revealed warmer 500 mb temperatures now that the upper low has opened to a trough and is well east of the state. Additionally, steering is a meager 5-8 mph from the NW to WNW and the air becomes sharply drier about 10,000 ft.  up in the atmosphere.Thus, with only weak sea breezes along the east coast with the west coast sea breeze more than likely making greater headway, appears inland activity is possible along the larger Lakes especially Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Pierce and on the South Side of the Lake and the South Side of Orlando eastward toward Seminole County and SW Volusia toward North Brevard potentially.

Outflows from even showers will likely be the next boosting mechanism since air aloft is still cool in the mid-levels which would give convergence along lake and those boundaries something for the atmosphere to play with. 

The issue today will be how much forcing there is upward to propel the column through the mid-drier level to big and great heights (strong thunderstorms). Making no mistake about, any said storm should it develop, will be able to produce frequent lightning, but as of the past two days I have not seen little  beyond the ordinary except toward Lake Okeechobee, and today the playing factors on those days are absent. 

But if so, it would be from Orlando/Sanford/Port St. John to west of Rockledge area and maybe southward toward US 1 to Melbourne. Did not really draw in specifics today as there is too much contingent upon 'additive'  mystery factors coming together to make a true hypothesis; point being rather to establish a framework dialogue describing what we are working with today rather than trying to strain a gnat. 

The other missing factor is upper level vorticity which was present along the east coast the past two days. It could still become a bit cloudy and 'drippy' anywhere along the east coast by late afternoon into the early evening though toward the east coast and inland areas where storms lay to bury and die out.

BEYOND: Above note the RED "L" in the image . This surface low formed in part from remaining energy associated with Isaac's Rotator cup. It is not expected to do a whole lot considering a frontal boundary will be giving it   Das Boot within about 48 hours toward the East to EastNorthEast as it it  can no longer dig its heals, being absorbed in a trough to move through the middle of the country (which will make for some cool mornings indeed - into the 40Fs in some locations in the wee hours). Speaking of which, I noticed Okeechobee City this morning was at 64F degrees before sunrise, and Vero hit a record low of 69F I believe it was yesterday morning. They were right around there before sunrise today as well.

IN any case, the frontal boundary will be sinking in to Central Florida around Monday now, and just exactly how far south the boundary will get is a bit more aloof, but the ECMWF and the previous GFS had it getting to the Florida straits. It might just take a little while longer to get there (if at all). Might even hang up toward Lake Okeechobee. 

But for the weekend, Saturday is not looking like such a big deal as far as rain goes as it appeared it would be, at least not for thunder. Very warm near the east coast though with delayed if any sea breeze north of Brevard. With all the sun and few clouds at the beaches and with Leslie loafing offshore, rip current threat is now reading "HIGH" from the National Weather Service so be advised of 'under toe out' and 'over head burnin'.'

FEW CHANCES FOR SCENES LIKE THIS NEAR THE BEACHES AFTER TODAY
IT APPEARS "SUMMER" STORMS WILL BE SOON DOWN FOR THE COUNT FOR 2012

Better rain chance on Sunday, but really does not appear all too impressive with no chance of a sea breeze and not real good forcing. mainly, rain chance on Sunday is well north of Lake Okeechobee...continuing into Monday Central and South Central.

Stronger Activity Possible Today Central Florida

September 4th, 2012 Storm Scapades - "Horizing Arising"
Arcus Cloud, Gust Front Formation 

TODAY: There is little change from yesterday's pressure pattern for the most part. An upper low off the east coast will lift north to north-northeast today and be located approximately 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral by mid-afternoon. Localize stronger winds aloft flow down its west side from the northeast across north rather than central Florida today, so as a result the best upper level divergence which was over South Florida yesterday will now be over Central Florida. Net result is that there is a minutiae of chance that stronger activity could be seen over Central as opposed to only South Florida as was the case yesterday (for the most part). Area to watch again near Ft Pierce toward the North side of Lake Okeechobee as well as far north possibly as Canaveral. Cold air aloft really never gets much further north than the Melbourne area though.  The net result of the better divergence could mean an early start to some showers as the east coast sea breeze begins between the beaches and Cocoa. If this earlier activity does take shape the chance of stronger activity later on might be nil due to stabilization of the atmosphere.  

Latest KSC morning sounding shows steering to be stronger than any model guidance indicates, with temperatures aloft cooler than yesterday as well. Thus, strong storms are possible today should nothing change later today from those conditions reflected in the sounding. Steering from the west about 10-14mph toward the east. Small hail also possible with gusts in the 35-48mph range in/near strongest storms.

Refer to  Numbered Captions in the Above Image

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Weak low pressure area being watched for tropical development . Appears that feature no matter where it ends up or how strong in manages to gather wits (right now, not looking too likely) will have little time to strengthen before a frontal boundary and mid-level trough absorb it going into Sunday. Most guidance so far bring the strung out energy across mostly the North Half of the State, focusing it on Central Florida on Monday. Before that time though, the upper low to the east of the state will finally be released off to the northeast behind LESLIE...which will then allow the front and the old energy pocket from Isaac to swing through as the first cold front of the pre-fall Season. By Monday's night into early Tuesday. This will also mean that the cooler air aloft will move out, so the threat of strong storms could be over after today. 

This boundary is expect to clear south to at least Cuba or the Florida Straits followed by moist and brisk ENE winds for a few days, with cloudy periods and possibly some sprinkles. Temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs depending on cloud coverage. The boundary by or toward the following weekend could lift back north, or 'buckle back' ahead of another tropical disturbance from the South Central Atlantic which does not yet exist, per se. This would bring another shot of rainy weather toward the 15th or so of September with easterlies continuing . Thus, after this front clears out, the Wet Thunderstorm Season Door is Slammed shut for 2012 (not to say, thunder still cannot happen, nor that it still cannot be 'wet'). Referring only to the blanket "Typical Florida Thunderstorm" season as one might imagine it to be.

Isolated Storms, A few Strong Possible Later Today

 

TODAY: Having problems signing into my blog posting site today, thus,

this is a bit of a 'test post' attempt from email.

 

Tough call today, Wednesday, but all in all appears an upper

low off the SE Florida Coast is making for colder air aloft today

over the South 1/3 of the state and toward the east coast as far north

as near Melbourne. Steering is equally a tough call as it is divided in the

mid levels from WSW to the North. All in all, expect only slow storm motions today with propagation

along boundaries. Best chance of strong storms appears to be west of the Big Cities over South Florida

and just north of the LAKE on the north side of the Lake Shadow...this spells out the Ft. Pierce

to Vero Zone..with later activity as a result of outflows as far north as the Beach Line toward Rockledge/Port St John

areas of populace, whereas further west toward Orlando this is mainly swamp land and as far west as

Orlando might be west of the sea breeze convergence. Following images from Tuesday.

OTHERWISE: Remnants of the Seeds of Isaac (upper and mid level energy) is hovering

and will move little through tomorrow along the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps be forced

a bit to the WSW off Southern Alabama as a result of the passage of Lisa to our east.

LARGE SWELLS in the offing, and dangerous high risk threat of rip currents

beginning today but more so ALL WEEKEND. Thunder chances

continue through the weekend as well.

I see the Hurricane Center is giving "Isaac" a 10% chance of something happening with it, but

so far this looks less likely over likely. Cannot say for sure, and bears watching, but all in all

what will come out of it for better or for worse is better rain chances for at least the north half of the state heading into Monday.

 

 

"Remnants of Isaac" to Revisit Florida By Friday/Saturday

"It is Best Not to Assume Too Much Responsibility in Areas We have no Control Over". Call it as one see's it...with a disclaimer.    

TODAY: Not much difference across Central from the past several days since the departure of Issac. It is possible though that as moisture increases slightly from South Florida and closes in from the North that we could see some thunder toward the Lake/Sea Breeze collision zone near Ft. Pierce and the surrounding area toward Lake Okeechobee north toward Vero, as well as north of I-4. Elsewhere, isolated too isolated to highlight. Otherwise, light winds. Overall, more activity across the state.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The mid level 'energy' (vorticity) from "Isaac's Ashes" very loosely speaking has already become well entwined with a synoptic scale trough and related surface front which is driving into the Southeast states after impacting the area from Arkansas, Missouri and other portions of the Mississippi River and Ohio River Valley basins, providing drought relief and some tornadoes. This energy is now being driven toward the southeast, so one could say at least in portion that "Isaac" is back to re-visit having gone full circle. In a larger sense, this is similar to what Ivan did several years ago as it went full loop out into the Atlantic and re-entried toward South Florida nearly 10 days after making its initial passage. 

"General" example of path of Ivan and Isaac and very general
forecast depiction in 'black'

In any case, increased moisture convergence along the trough with energy from the mid-levels ("Isaac" so to speak) will increase rain shower chances and some thunder mainly Thursday through Saturday, perhaps Sunday. Lack of a sea breeze  convergence except well east of the spine of the state should provide for a good day or two of storms until 'the remnants' move out into the Atlantic on the heels of by then what appears will be "Powerful Leslie" (hurricane) which is forecast to bring large swells and rip current threats up and down the U.S. East Coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Increased chance of showers and thunder with larger swells moving into the East coast. Rip Current/larger swells and lightning threat increases this weekend, beach goers over the weekend beware.

BEYOND: In the all in all, the thunderstorm wet season ended long ago before Isaac. Granted, some will assuredly argue the point, but tell us then "where are the storms?" 

The only reason we really are only going to have a chance now is from the frontal boundary and remnants of Isaac which is a far cry from the normal 'summer mechanisms' of sea breeze collisions in abundant moisturized and heat energized atmospheric environment one expects in a 'normal summer pattern', whatever that is. In the past 3 years, no two summers have been even close to similar although from an 'outside perspective' one could hardly say they can tell the difference.

The past two summers ..the wet season ended almost perfectly with the first day of Fall (September 21). This year looks far from that. That is not to say thunder is all but forgotten, but it will not be the norm any longer after this week. It might in fact, be quite sometime for any return of thunderstorms, as the boundary works eventually south (per the GFS) and onshore flow ensues, looking much more like an early Fall pattern, at least in the interim. That does not mean, however, the tropically related threat 'potential' does not continue to lurk well into October and early November.

Eroding Thunder Chances East Coast through Weekend

Chances of showers and thunder again today, although coverage of thunder will be less than yesterday

TODAY: Much of the forecast it seems depends on some 'expansion' of low pressure features surrounding Issac in the mid-levels. With very light south winds aloft and a sea breeze already a bit in place, suspect that even though steering will becoming more SW by early afternoon from 2000 ft and above, the sea breeze will by this time by beyond US1 at least. Steering toward the east coast most prominent from Titusville and north. Storm or two could form along the sea-lake breeze boundary near Ft. Pierce and work up the coast. Outflow from that activity combined with greater coverage near I-4 outflow could result in activity linger over inland portions of East Central with a drift toward the coast, thus light rain could reach the immediate coast (or at least cloud cover) after 6pm if not a bit sooner. Best instability today will be along the east coast sea-breeze toward I-95 from Daytona and Southward. A secondary area not shown is toward JAX, but cloud coverage might cancel out said chance, so I did not include it in this post. Greatest coverage to occur after 4pm through 7pm.

BEYOND: A steering away from the east coast toward the west side commences after sunset. From this point and beyond into the weekend it looks mostly like it will be portions of the west half of the state that will see the majority of thunderstorms, with a small chance of showers near the coast either on Friday or Saturday as a result of a trough to move offshore the NE U.S. working south and offshore in the next few days. I suspect this might only result in some nebulous clouds, but guidance is showing some wayward showers in the Friday or Saturday time from, primarily over South Central and South Florida as well as in far North Florida.  

TROPICS: Other than Isaac , there are no concerns in the forefront for quite some time to come. At least not through next week.

Storms Up and Down the East Coast Possible after Mid-Afternoon Possible

Screen capture of latest visible satellite imagery shows Isaac south of Louisiana drifting toward the WNW (it seems). And lines of cumulus with some thunder showers getting underway across Central portions as of 1:30pm

TODAY: Sea breezes should help aid in some stronger activity with cooler air aloft today in the wake of the warm air aloft associated with the Tropical Cyclone to the west of the state. Steering just above the surface is predominantly from the SSW-SW around 15-22mph this afternoon and may increase yet more north of Lake Okeechobee later today as high pressure in the mid levels begins to build across South Florida. Otherwise, the atmosphere is fully saturated.

Would expect that any activity will move out to sea fairly quickly; however, backdraft outflows could enhance or back build into some coastal locations, especially just north of where the mid level ridge builds in namely from St. Lucie County north toward South Volusia County. Strongest storms could be restricted to Central Brevard and north, but any additional rainfall toward St. Lucie and Martin Counties either way (if it occurs) will not be 'appreciated' after the multiple inches accumulated in this area yesterday. Convergence appears could be greatest anywhere though East Central with multiple interactions of off shore moving activity resulting in potentially more than one round of thunder or continued light to moderate rains almost anywhere north of Ft. Pierce as it appears now. Wind gusts toward 40-50mph are possible  with the first storms of the day in any one area (primarily) while instability is maximized before the atmosphere gets 'worked over', with frequent lightning possible for short duration where storms pulse upward just at and beyond the sea breeze.

As it appears now, with activity already underway as can be seen in the above image, the later activity toward 3:45-4:15pm should occur from Brevard County and South..with slower steering south of Vero Beach in particular. Thus, any heavier storm toward Ft. Pierce or even into West Palm Beach area where huge rainfall totals occurred yesterday will only be appreciated by the mosquito and toad populations. However, this is the one area that is a bit questionable in regard to rainfall today. Much, be it as it may, depends on how quickly the high pressure begins to assert itself in tango with the motion of Isaac which is no hurry to make landfall (in full), if not until Wednesday after day break at least.

WEDNESDAY: Much will depend again on those latter two features ("Isaac" and ridge) in regard to where rains will fall on Wednesday but suspect it will be mainly locations over the North half or so of the state, isolated elsewhere. Steering should become weaker as well. In short, tomorrow there will be storms but to delineate exactly where at this time is to dependent upon the anomalous entity called, "Isaac".

BEYOND: Easterly flow begins to dominate the picture across the state with most storms occurring over the west half of the state for several days into the weekend, although it will be quite light. A hint of a tropical type like wave might result in isolate showers near the coast of Central or South, but this too is way beyond worth including in discussion for now.

Isaac's Pull Toward Zero Gravity - Bobbing for the Poison Apple

Best guess impacts based on NAM/FIM/GFS/ECMWF Trends show this could be mainly a coastal event north of Ft. Pierce due to timing of overnight Sunday into mid-afternoon Monday before the storm winds tighter and pulls away from the Central and Southern Peninsula. Any tornado threat might be limited to landfalling waterspouts toward Eastern Orange County and south along I-95 toward interior portions near Lake Okeechobee and up the west coast .
Highest impacts overall in the boxes.

TODAY: Except with the rain anomaly running up the east coast into Volusia and across South Florida/Keys, the rest of the day will be quiet as surface winds begin to increase over South Florida toward sunset with the exception of the Keys to remain very breezy through the duration of their event.

Storm Isaac is now over Eastern Cuba and is barely discernible except in visible satellite animations. This will be the case most of the day and into tonight until well past midnight when the center is expected to emerge in the waters of the Florida Straits north of Central Cuba.  Fairly rapid organization is expected from this point and beyond as the storm moves between WNW-NW into the Keys during the day on Sunday. 

Tropical storm conditions appear fairly certain for Palm Beach county - south and westward, perhaps as far north as Ft. Pierce, although a warning box is out as far north as Sebastian Inlet. 

Further north, although winds can be gusty, at this rate they do not appear they will be unusually so. Rainfall will work up the coast and reach the area near 528/Port Canaveral by early afternoon and increase into the evening as the Storm begins to emerge into the Gulf and take its NW-NNW turn. 

The latest GFS track with others model in tow is quite close to the Hurricane Center's forecast, and the GFS is quite adamant on nailing the Cape area of Brevard toward Port St. John, Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, North Cocoa toward I-95, Merritt Island with some good rains, but the winds outside of squalls will not be anything beyond the "Anonymous No Name" of last October. 

 There is also a chance of tornadoes, especially land falling waterspouts along the east coast as the best wind shear will occur early Monday morning before sunrise through mid-afternoon near the beaches and rivers where frictional drag is minimized. The most instability during this time frame will be advected onto the shore from the warm Atlantic waters whereas land areas will not be able to destabilize under cloud cover. This is NOT to say the entire region across the peninsula will not be under a tornado watch, however, as models seldom if ever truly pick up on the rain bandings.

 Best shear overall appears will be across the west half of the state toward Orlando, but whether the heavier squalls will reach here remains up in the air.   But is so, crayola that area in if you wish.

This post is geared toward the line of thinking that the storm will wind to tightly after early afternoon for  much of the turning motions required for rotating mini-supercells to hold fast during peak heating anyway. 

Therefore, outside of this mere blog post, as always heed all statements transmitted by the National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center via Weather Radio and media outlets. Chances are, local TV Channels will be airing live coverage during the time frame from overnight Sunday and through much of Monday, so unless one loses electricity, the TV is a valuable asset to get a good visual on what is actually occurring as well as approaching any one area/location  during these hours. Primarily for Central from 2pm Sunday through 2pm Monday.

The Tropical Cyclone appears could make landfall in the red box area as a minimal hurricane, at least measured above ground level.  That is not to say the storm will not be dubbed a hurricane any time along the path from the Keys onward, but chances are many of the winds at that time of sustained hurricane strength will remain above the ground around 5000 feet.

BEYOND: Some trailing vorticity streamers and ample moisture as winds become more southerly to SSW could result in warm and muggy conditions Tuesday through Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms toward mainly the East Coast.

*** REFER TO ALL OFFICIAL STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. THIS POST
 DOES NOT COVER ANY EXTRA MEASURES AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN WHAT APPEARS MOST OBVIOUS AT THIS TIME.  THIS BLOG IS NOT A VALID SOURCE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION**** 

Very Little Activity Today with Light Wind

Image might be generous. Could be a storm near or west of Orlando area as any outflow or shadow effect from cloud coverage to the north combined with a weak sea breeze from the west coast and Lake breezes manifests a shower or storm there. Toward the east side the same general properties exist (possibilities). Toward South Florida models are showing a storm there, however it appears too much mid-level drying might have already taken shape but never say never. Same goes toward North Brevard where 'if' a storm or two can manifest outflows cloud produce some light rain or a cloud deck 

TODAY: Surface ridge that had been toward South Florida is lifting north and now resides across Central Florida with calm winds. Clouds are on the way out, so inland heating should not be an issue today. Dry air in the mid-levels is being noted so activity to form in and near the drier air should be isolated at best. The mid-level ridge axis remains toward Lake Okeechobee all day, so steering from Central Brevard and north remains from the SW-WSW which could mean little if no activity gets started. Suspect a sea breeze will form from the east in general but remain fairly light all day all areas. Cloudy skies to the north should preclude much if any in actual thunder activity other than one thundershower now in progress.

FRIDAY: Continued easterly flow develops and dry air works in more so. Next shot of showers could be on Saturday coming in off the ocean as the dry slot erodes.

TROPICS: Latest GFS now coming out up through Friday is close to the previous run. It is noticed that there is little in surface winds around the surface circulation which is now shown approaching Jamaica but the mid level circulation is much larger. It is north of the Dominican that the strongest winds are actually manifest, likely as a result of pressure gradient winds from high pressure to the north. The NWS/NHC centers are watching this system as amplified across the airwaves. It is noticed that if this storm becomes a hurricane it will be minimal, at least as it appears now although that could change. We might have to watch, given the weak surface reflection, for a new center to emerge 'elsewhere' which could be north of the landmasses. If so, the track of the system would have to shift more toward the east. As it appears now there is a close bundle of tracks that take the system toward the Central Key's and east toward Miami/Ft Lauderdale as a solid tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The NAM insists on forming a new center north of the eastern tip of Cuba as the circulation passes between the DR and that island, possibly as a result of frictional drag of the low level winds across the DR. (Dominican Republic). The main squeeze models insist on a bundle along to just off shore the west coast toward Panama City narrowly skirting Ft Meyers and Tampa (in general). Much will be revealed on Saturday, as warmest sea surface temperatures are showing up north of Cuba. In the last few hours convective cloud tops have warmed significantly over a region that had flared up earlier. In short, time will tell with little expected gain in strength, but refer to the NHC (the hurricane center).

Some Strong/Marginal Severe Wind Gusts Possible in Storms Today

Downpour with rain-free ,lightning producing updraft  
over Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

RECAP: Abnormal amounts of rain and lightning for a summer day as depicted in the graphic of yesterday's post where multiple storms occurred. Rainfall varied vastly depending on one's location relevant to re-occurring cell propagation paths, with my location received 3.21". Highest rainfall totals were near the Tampa Area with one unofficial report well over 7" near South Pasadena. Not expecting such high totals today.  Wind gusts of 68mph and 78mph were reported by mesonet locations in Brevard County, with damage noted in that same county in several locations.

TODAY: Varied theme today due to continued cloud coverage resulting in lower low-level and mid-level lapse rates, although this will change during the course of the mid-late afternoon, especially for those areas in and near where big cloud breaks are most prevalent.  Sea breeze along the east coast due to cloud cover will be harder to come by, with showers and thunder already nearly half way across the state near I-4 toward 528. Believe the strongest activity will occur as a result of outflows from this activity and propagation along any sea breezes south of the Cape, with back-drafts from offshore showers/storms resulting in potentially more than one rain chance from Cape Canaveral toward Ft pierce or Vero Beach north of the Lake Okeechobee shadow in the WSW steering of 20kts.  Chances are it will be the first storm (or second) that will contain any strong winds since after that point cooling due to rain cooled air will erode the low level lapse rate differential.  Down Draft Cape over South Florida and dry mid level drying might prevent storms of strength altogether, but domino propagation south toward West Palm might result in an isolated event.

THURSDAY: One more day of a similar pattern, although coverage at this rate not expected to be as extensive. Surface ridge will be located already toward at least Lake Okeechobee which will lift further north on Friday putting an end to the pattern over the southern 2/3rds of the state. Easterly flow is then expected to develop across much of the state by Friday into the weekend as the upper level trough just north of the state is lifted north and east in response to a ridge of higher pressure building eastward from the Southwest U.S.

BEYOND: No surprises here regarding Isaac. The 'gravity' of the situation regarding the developing system's intensity and path are still, as always, up for grabs, debate, speculation, and gossip. At this conjunction, we can at least refer to various model projections varying from 15-75 miles off the east coast as a Category II Hurricane to on or just up a tracing of the entire west coast. Looking at history, such a path has never occurred, at least as far as what the morning GFS of 12Z shows. The previous run was a track similar to Hurricane Cleo of 1974 up the Center of the State, while the GFDL looked quite similar to that of Hurricane David of 1979 up the east coast. The apple falls not far from the tree.

Understand  that these are merely mathematical calculations based on current conditions which change continuously, and are thus a sampling of a wide variety of other schemes. The ECMWF has the storm now missing the state entirely
As a result of the future course of ISAAC, the weekend forecast is interminable.  It is noticed that if the storm takes a west coast track, it appears the storm overall will be a bit 'right handed/heavy'. This would the entire state in the NE quadrant of the storm at various times which could be or pose a tornado hazard.  On the other hand, an east coast track would pose little heavy rainfall threat other than close to the circulation. There is no  accounting for unexpected slowing down of the storm, which throws all to oft the track completely out of whack regardless of what any model at this point indicates

"Swirl Overhead!"