Sandy beaches on Jamaica, Storm Watch in Effect

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

Official forecast track is wll off the east coast, yet a tropical storm watch is now in Effect from the  North Brevard County line and South as pre-suppositioned in the post yesterday could occur. Note that most tracks are well east of the state 

TODAY: Some more clouds again today as noted could be the case in the previous postage...no cost for packaging and handling. Some showers came in pre-sunrise at Canaveral as observed at the homestead, and more could be on the way later today per latest satellite visible imagery observed loops from this here man-cave. 

Regardless, some showers mainly from Volusia and South toward South Florida remain in the cards today mainly from Brevard to Indian River and St 'Lucile' Counties. This will continue to be the case at any time for the same regions up and down the coast through Thursday into Freitag  as conditions begin to be influenced locally by what remains of Sandy after crossing Cuba.

 Emphasis encouraged on placing uncertainty regarding 'what comes next'. Feast or famine, Beast or mammon, for the Florida east coast? In that regard, we can understand the Hurricane Center is placing emphasis per their own admittion  in their graphics on the clustered tracks of the Hurricane Models further east, yet still has hence put forth a Storm Watch as noted per top of blog post. 

So what Gives?

It would be best to show below what is not shown on those tracks. Especially the GFS model, the NAM model, and the NOGAPS models; Global Forecast System, North American, and Navy NoGaps models show a track more toward the west than the clustered tracks of the Consensus/Ensemble plots which makes perfectly good and reasonable sense. It appears the watch areas are in effect as a 'just in case precautionary measure at this conjuncture', or is it merely conjecture? Too soon to say as the old saying goes. Because as we can see:

NAM shows 70kts coastal Brevard

NAVY shows big Tropical Storm force winds with center just offshore

LATEST GFS as of 8AM shows 90 KTS off shore and 70-80kts on the coast, winds in all cases from the North.

THUS, point being, it's too soon to say which witches 

which is which. Thus, be advised. Whoops, we 

have been. 

It's not too hard to put 2 and 2 together...but at this point it does not seem 

to bother with the hassle until the storm clears or is upon the island of Cuba. In this regard, things still stand; "be prepared to prep"  for strong NNE-N 

winds, beach erosion, and high river waters and impossible bridge crossings, and power outages during the worst case scenario. On the other hand, it might not rain a drop.

Large Sandy (Beaches) - GFTropical Storm/Hurricane Statements :Could Be Necessary for Florida

GFS SURFACE WINDS from the 2AM EDT model run for Thursday at sunrise toward afternoon into Friday. Red COULD end up being Hurricane Watch or Warning zone, and Yellow 'Storm" zone. Too soon to say, way too soon...more below...

TODAY through WEDNESDAY: Not much to say   through these days as conditions with easterly winds and temperatures in the 80Fs by day and 70Fs by night continue. Some showers have moved in well South of Brevard, but not one model anticipated them...they appear to be low topped. Such will the case, increasingly so into Wednesday though, but nothing out of the usual. Best chances of showers going into Wednesday and cloud coverage off and on south of I-4.

BEYOND: Guidance across the boards shows a very very large tropical system named "Sandy" to lift north across Cuba   late Wednesday...after passing over or near Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. Consensus as of this morning indicates Sandy will become a Hurricane north of Cuba over the central Bahamas as the storm lifts north, but the clincher in those regards is just exactly how for west the storm will be at that time.

This is imporant relative to the Florida peninsula early on for the U.S.'s first dibs on the storm in regard to the region mainly from Brevard and South to Miami and far SE Florida. Tropical Storm force winds 'could' occur as Sandy skirts by along a part or all of that zone..or if the storm is further east, none of it. Worst case scenario is showing minimal Hurricane strength from West Palm and South mainly along and east of I-95.

The ECMWF (Euro) model no longer has the storm as close to the coast as previous runs have indicated,  but one other model has it a bit closer than even that shown in the image above; whereas, this is not in general  the case with others.

Whichever one model looks at , regardless, it can be assured this storm will be keeping forecasters busy up until it is assured the storm will clear all of the U.S. east coast which right now seems to be 50/50.  If the storm comes closer to Florida chances become greater that the U.S. Northeast states will be in for a very big storm. On the other hand, if it progresses too far toward the east while lifting north too soon...Sandy could well miss alll of the U.S. entirely.

Either way, big waves and dangerous rip tide conditions are a guarantee beginning late Wednesday through Saturday at least for the Florida east coast.

Rainfall, on the closest path, is most significant from Southern Volusia and south, and most impacting from West Palm Beach and south. On the other hand, if the storm skirts further east, we might not see a drop.

Speculation will abound today most assuredly, but until the storm is north of Cuba for a good 6-12 hours it might be best not to jump the guns, for that is all it is, speculation. In that light, have in mind if one especially lives right on the coast east of I-95 or even US-1 from Brevard and South to consider bringing in yard furniture for a worst case scenario . 

Wind direction is all important as well. Strongest winds in a worst case scenario will be NNE to NE. At this time, there is no official word from the Hurricane Center regarding Florida, thus, these words are obviously only for informational purposes. Use at your Own Risk (if there is any to be had.)

Image of Cape Canaveral Beach at Sunrise

 

Cloudy Today, Chance of Showery Rumbles Mainly South of SR528

Sunny Day Not To Be Found Over Most of the Peninsula of Florida
(Cape Canaveral Florida Sunrise Image)

TODAY: Mid-upper level impulse at the base of a large and to become a slightly negatively tilted trough with its northern most component later today near western Minnesota that extends to the north gulf is sweeping across the state today, with the trough axis to cross late today into tonight. Vast amounts of  high level moisture already at play as can be seen in satellite imagery (below)..but per KSC sounding ..south of I-4 mid level moisture is sorely lacking. Guidance is showing rain in some form or another mainly near and South of the Central Dividing Line along 528 west toward north Tampa Bay, mainly along the east 1/2 of the state after 2pm through sunset. 

Given the  sounding info this morning, not sure lapse rates in the mid-levels will be sufficient to generate that rainfall, but with a little heating and perhaps some dissipation of higher clouds although at this time not yet seen as being evident in the cards, thunder could be a real possibility  mainly south of 528 or SR 50 but more so near and south of Lake Okeechobee.

Otherwise, light wind today outside of any possible storms. Only downplaying what would've had the potenital to be a 'big weather day' if not for the preliminary cloud cover. Strong storms are not entirely out of the question, but will down play that potential today, at least at this early hour.

OTHERWISE: Primary frontal boundary from the larger trough is to pass down the state on Saturday, mainly dry south of I-10 as it does so (at least at this point), but accompanied by cloud cover to varying degrees.  Before that time, there is a bit of a 'dry slot' at this point to move in behind this impulse passing over head today, so Friday and even Thursday could be mainly dry except toward South Florida and the Panhandle; no hard set rules on that one yet though.

Temperatures to cool mainly along and north of I-4 on the east coast and toward South Tampa Bay on the west coast. Folks south of the Cape in All areas will hardly know a front went through, just like the one the other day resulted outcome that manifested. Front? What Front?....exactly.

No true 67F and below readings for the immediate East Coast south of I-4 (East of US1) is foreseen through Halloween.

Showers, Thunder through Early-Mid Evening (Central) Possible Today/Tonight

Frontal Boundary late today to be located as shown in the following image, but currently located diagonally across the Panhandle where morning lows were in the 50Fs behind it (that cool air will never reach Central Florida). Difficulties in forecast today due to cloud coverage over many areas that is to persist

TODAY: Short post today. Cluster of Storms is progressing toward the ENE (shown above), this coupled with surface winds becoming more southerly after noontime, and increasing SW midlevel steering across mainly Central and North Florida with instability and cool air aloft despite the cloud coverage could instigate showers and thunder (South Florida is already experiencing quite a bit)...almost anytime, esp. after early afternoon.

The frontal boundary across North Florida could make it toward Dead Central around midnight, and slight low level convergence along that boundary could shift increasing rain chances toward the SE from NW Florida later today, but timing is a tricky factor considering the ongoing scenario currently in place.

There was some large rainfall totals over 4" yesterday in Okeechobee County, so localized flash 'flooding' is possible there, although the main core of rain is not 'expected' to reach that zone. Guidance 'seems' to be a somewhat of   agreement that it will be the north 1/2 of the state that will receive the main flux of rainfall, but no area can be counted out once localized boundaries come into play and considering it is already raining over portions of South Florida early on today.

Image for mid evening shows front's location and a weak low pressure circulation over the Bahamas. High pressure building eastward indicated by zig zag blue line will press eastward toward Florida resulting in a wind shift to the north by Tuesday and drying out mainly north of the 528 Causeway, but yet more drying to commence Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday through Friday or early Saturday. 

BEYOND TODAY: Shower chances early on along the east coast of Central tomorrow morning but this activity will press off toward SW Florida during the day.  After that time, Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry, although another boundary will skirt by off shore with little to no impact  Morning lows along the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs south of the Cape and afternoon highs in the 80Fs and lows 90Fs along the SW side of the state.

Chance (?) of Very Strong Storms Today, Frequent Lightning

Mesoscale Analysis Graphic From the Storm Prediction Center website based on RAP Guidance shows upper level divergence and stronger winds aloft (which coincides with morning actual soundings from KSC/TPA, JAX) over the Gulf. Issue today could be cloud cover in some areas which might burn off quickly in the next few hours, and a convective temperature at KSC way up at a hard to attain 92F . Especially if storms form over far west Florida and spread high clouds eastward.

TODAY: There is a chance of severe storms today, although no formal outlets are relegating this potential officially, so in regards to a mere blog post that comment should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Temperatures aloft are cooler than the past two days and jet stream level winds down to the upper most portions of the steering level are twice as strong than the past two days as well, which leaves for good 'evacuation ' out of the top of the storms for breathing room. BUT, underneath those winds lingers substantial cloud cover mainly north of the Beach Line zone ('Dead Central Dividing Line' often referred to only in these posts). Instability is in the same range as two days ago nearly so, with CAPE already up to a 4000 in a small area near Gainesville per KSCs Local Data Integration System plots, which completely conflicts with the NAM guidance showing less than 500 J*2/kg*2, so have discarded that guidance entirely.

Activity could form very close to the east coast by early afternoon, and early outflow from that activity might very well stabilize locations close to those showers and/or earlier day storms... particularly south of Brevard toward Lake Okeechobee (Vero south to West Palm Beach ). Most models are placing late day rains along the WEST coast though, but propagation changes everything, which appears would be from the northwest, which is what the below image is at least taking into consideration.

Winds below about 9000 ft are very light, so sea breezes should not have a problem developing. Much of how those develop and how strong they will be is largely contingent upon how well inland temperatures can warm and where that will be. Suspect that perhaps all of dead Central might end up being the 'zone' to watch, but graphics in this post do not really capture this essence other than shown above as a starting guessameter. 

The downfall per KSC for strong storms, or the state having a hard time getting started, is that the KSC sounding shows a convective temperature of 92F. This is possible inland once clouds clear (I suppose), or that temperature might have been a morning glitch which could easily no longer exist. So to play it safe will call the wild card bluff today to play it safe in the 'heads up' department. 

Will add that the High Resolution model is showing only storms over Brevard County today, as of a run three hours old.

The other thing to watch will be that if a good cluster-age of storms can amass toward Ocala (in general) outflows could propagate toward the South and east toward the Palm Beach County area later today as far north as the Cape area. This might all be made up for though in terms of rainfall totals rather than strong to severe storms, but it does look like at this point there is no reason not to discount the potential at least for gusts toward 65 mph and small hail after the first couple storms get going and their subsequent outflows interact.  

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Not surprisingly, the GFS is holding off a bit in the longer ranger into early next week on frontal passage, awaiting instead for it to occur once a secondary front only now coming together well to the north to press on east and south behind the eroding first boundary moving toward the Appalachian Chain and into the Deep South. 

Thus, rain chances now go into at least Tuesday..and might be even longer. Sunday looks a bit like today in regard to parameters as does Monday. Low pressure over the Caribbean is conflicting with frontal passage, acting a bit as a block..with a continued moist low but light easterly flow 'hencefromforthethishly'. Therefore, showers are also possible overnight and early morning mainly near the east coast, but isolated into Tuesday.

Chance of a Strong Storm and 'Big' Lightning Today

This image by no means meant to cover the details, as heavier activity could occur north of Lake Okeechobee (not shown) and pretty much anywhere west of I-95 today except toward Miami (?)

TODAY: Overall today conditions are not much different than yesterday other than that low level instability is not as strong. Winds aloft are light to totally negligent to steering so again it is possible for the atmosphere by early evening to take on a life of its own as was the case yesterday. One location in Lake County received over 6 inches of rain.  Slow storm motion mainly due to propagation and merges could back-draft toward the east coast toward or after dark as the sea breeze wanes especially. In that regard, any coastal location could get a shower or storm after 8pm (potentially) as an odd ball out.

There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE once again, making for questionable coverage (like yesterday). That was the case yesterday as well  and what ended up occurring was good coverage with much lightning activity. A child was struck on a playing field along the west coast. No severe reports (hail/wind) came in however, perhaps lightning made up for the difference.

SAT/SUN: No changes in the mid-term and extended. Rain chances continue in random but wide spread fashion, decreasing on Sunday for the north mainly. High pressure now centered in the mid-levels over Central Florida will weaken as a front approaches, but the low levels will not be so willing to change. 

The next front is shown yet still to never really clear the state as it lifts off to the Northeast while pulling off to the east after crossing most of Georgia. 

Regardless, high pressure behind that boundary will assert a much greater influence over the state by Monday approaching from the West and northwest. As a result, ENE-NE winds will become more easterly into next week late week, with the only effect of said High Pressure being subsidence (sinking of air) and drying out of the atmosphere. This could mean cooler mornings away from the East Coast, but those folks located close to and east of A1A from the Cape and South will unlikely see overnight lows dropping much below 77F degrees with ocean temperatures running around 80-81F degrees and onshore but light winds continuing over night, blowing off the water of those temperatures.  The above image is a GFS surface temperature forecast for Monday Morning where the blues are at , near, or below freezing.

Strong Inland Storms Today Possible Mainly South Central

TODAY:  Brief post due to time constraints. Quick peaks of the last few successive hours though shows that a very rich and moist dew-point air mass in the low levels has crept north toward I-4 as of 11AM. This is easily discernible just by stepping outside.

United Launch Alliance/Boeing Delta IV this morning

 High Instability already exists with Convective Available Potential Energy closing in on 4000 units which is high. ...even just offshore the east coast it  is advecting (migrating) inland under slightly cooler temperatures aloft from the past several days. 

With that said, there is the potential for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms today just west of I-95 mainly South of I4. The ridge axis at steering level is almost directly across Central Florida stretching from east to west from High pressure in the Atlantic centered well to the state's east. this is noted on the morning KSC sounding and on the latest short fused guidance quite nicely.

 Steering in this regard is very slow, so would expect that apparent storm  motion will be due to propagation of outflow boundaries into unadulterated warm and moist unstable air west of the east coast sea breeze, potentially toward the WSW-SW direction. Some stronger storms are possible with the greatest hazard being excessive lightning strikes and a brief period of near severe wind gusts in and near storms. 

Going further into the week the GFS of several days ago seems to be re-emerging as a viable option for continuation of rain and storm chances into the weekend, with the Monday to Tuesday time frame being the point of departure, although that could change given the time frame in the future from now.

Decreasing Rain Chances Begin Today and Beyond

Surface Ridge of high pressure is lifting north up the east coast and could be well north of Central Florida by tonight. Although steering is from the SW storm inition will be near the inverted trough already north of part of Central Florida

TODAY: The inverted/old frontal boundary combination is now being eroded both from the West and from the east by High Pressure. The boundary itself lies near I-4 and shows up slightly in the above image near where the red markings in the graphic are (indicating possible stronger storms today). South of the boundary is where the greatest instability lies, but there is no trigger. Orange areas could see thunder today in general with downpours and overall heaviest rainfall totals in part of Seminole and Volusia Counties (possibly).

BEYOND: Moist easterly flow becoming ENE-NE at times with little change in temperatures night and day. Showers and some thunder will mostly remain west of I-95 south of I-4, and near the coast early morning hours, with inland activity remaining possible through the weekend into next week. Another frontal boundary will be progressing eastward which is now taking shape, but so far it appears this too will wash out near where our currently boundary is located (near I-4) as high pressure reigns supreme over Florida.

Frontal boundary out west will bring MUCH cooler temperatures Nation Wide by early next week.

EXCEPT across Florida south of I-10 and SW Arizona. Only those two zones it appears will feel very little changes for at least the next 10 days.

By early next weened

Showers, Some Thunder, In and Out Clouds Through Sunset

As Can Be Seen at 1:30pm, cloud cover is offsetting destabilization of the atmosphere
to some degree today, yet east of that frontal boundary now nearly stationary, the air
mass over all is nearly uniform and quite moist. Lack of boundaries / good trigger but  an analyzed vorticity max near the SE Coast  may set off a chain reaction of Northeast bound showers and thunder increasing in number and strength especially after 3pm from South and South Central Florida (primarily). 

TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown is a bit joined at the hip with an inverted trough of low pressure coming off the Yucatan. That trough is part of a very broad area of weak low pressure across all of the Caribbean extending into the far SW Gulf.  The air mass east of that boundary is fairly uniform, with poor low level lapse rates due to early day clouds and warm mid-level temperatures making for unfavorable early start on the stormage action. Regardless, if we can get more of the high clouds out of here, Deep Layer Convergence is showing up south and over the Big Lake, and with steering toward the Northeast at around 20-25kts (possibly)..changes could be forthcoming toward mid-afternoon in the form of showers and some thunder especially north of the Lake and more so into Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Seminole and Southern Volusia Counties from around 3pm until 8pm., especially if the Lake Shadow plays into the action.  Winds gusts in and near the showers or thunder could be strong, even in only rain showers but those cases if any will be isolated at best.  Activity should have not much of a problem moving swiftly offshore with lingering cloud cover through sunset as some lighter rain patches persisting should the convective wheels get set in motion during the next hour or so.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary could advance a bit more toward the SE as moisture continues further north by that time over-riding the boundary. In that regard, the better rain chances tomorrow could be further north and west,, but overall other than some cosmetic low level wind direction changes the mid-upper levels do not change all that much other than that the wind speeds in those levels begin to lower.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: The boundary by Thursday appears will be all but gone, but moisture persists making for difficult to time rain shower chances, although this could end up being a diurnal cycle showers scenario for the east coast in the early morning shifting west and north during the day time, but not exclusively so.

A frontal boundary is going to be coming together across the Central Portion of the country, but just exactly how or when that boundary will cross Central Florida and the remainder of the state is uncertain considering current timing suggests well out to Monday of next week.  In that regard rain chances, although nothing significant is foreseen, remain in the picture up until that time frame. Only the direction from which they come from changes.

Good Shot At Rain and Thunderstorms Today - Tuesday

Chance of Larger Rainfall Totals but nothing Extra ordianry along the East coast, first best guess shown in the Purple Area

TODAY/TUESDAY: Frontal boundary easily visible to the left in the above image extending into the Gulf.

East coast side shore to slightly onshore will aid in convergence with predominantly increasing SSW Flow aloft  should work and speed up earlier outflows and boundaries northward into Central and Possibly NE Florida, where there is a chance of some stronger activity due to better wind shear, although best instability might be near and South of I/4.  Not much different tomorrow as it looks now...

WEDNESDAY: Boundary sinks into Central but becomes rapidly diffused and stretched out as the parent low is well to the north over the Great Lakes Region at least...high pressure starts to reassert across the remaining boundary with a bit of an inverted trough extending from the Yucatan to Central Florida providing for at least one more day of better rain chances before decreasing some, but not entirely into next weekend. No temperature changes appreciably worth noting.

Pattern Shift Now Occurring, Rain chances Increase

Complex mid-upper level pattern developing today over the NE states
and South Central into the Northern Gulf. The trough further south will not effect Florida directly later today, but will do so Monday and Tuesday before possibly lifting out almost due north to NNE by mid-week

TODAY: As expected , noted 48 hours ago (per the GFS weather forecast model), full pattern swing is in place today. Onshore easterly winds will be less prevalent today, remaining close to the coast as upper level westerlies and mid level SW winds, albeit light increase by mid afternoon. High clouds over parts of the state seem to be getting ready to clear to some degree. The GFS has been consistent with showing the greatest instability from south of I-4 to Miami, mainly due to some drier mid-level air further north.  The Short Term Analysis at the Storm Prediction Center access point (aka, Mesoscale Analysis Page) shows this well via high down draft CAPE values, working toward the Beach Line (Dead Central zones). 

If so, it might be hard for thunder to come by today in that area except toward I-95 and east from near Titusville and southward. It is possible some thunder could be experienced therefore in North and Central Brevard County today after 4-5pm, although the depiction below shows only rain showers as storms might have a hard time shooting high into the atmosphere against the down draft CAPE in the presence of warming upper level temperatures. 

The better chance for thunder is shown in orange.  As noted above, the upper level temperatures are expected to warm later today as warmer air aloft is drawn northward ahead of a strengthening low pressure area to our west also previously shown.

Again, Northern More zone at this time lacks drivers and instability, but the GFS is showing some rain along the east coast later today all the way up to JAX (which is not shown in the post today). It also shows possible thunder in Brevard (also not shown). There is no sign of thunder producers being imminent as of noon time with few cumulus clouds (the harbingers of thunderstorms) showing up on satellite imagery and days are getting shorter. But, changes are in progress as we read and write in the grand, synoptic scale. For purposes of today's post, have taken thunder out...except as shown in orange.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much better chances of rain and thunder many areas as moisture increases from the South, being pulled northward ahead of a low pressure trough deepening and shifting east ward.

WEDNESDAY: This too could be another transitional day if the trough to our west begins to lift northward. If so, mechanisms for the east coast thunder machine could begin to wane, yet, moisture remains under the auspices  foreboding the chances of coastal and offshore showers and inland daytime thunder; but, thunder could occur almost anywhere really, with limited nocturnal activity toward the beaches. 

There is no "down for the count at any particular time" rain-outs lurking around the next bend, but rain chances  do remain to be accompanied by  warm over night lows and continued status quo day time highs in the limelight through the remainder of this coming week into next weekend.

Summersolstically Inclined Trend Foreseen

Splish Splashing Outlook Continues Be By  Land or  By Sea

TODAY: Not much different today than yesterday. Upper level temperatures this morning are surprisingly  very cool at 700 - 500mb aloft, but warmer 500mb air is expect (around 20,000 ft aloft) later today as high pressure at that level expands east ward across the Gulf as it gets spread out by an approaching and developing low pressure level boundary in the form of a cool to stationary frontal boundary over the weekend which is shown later in the post.

Otherwise, with respectable mixing ratios and deep layer convergence now occurring over the South Half of the state, suspect that is there that the bulk of the showers and thunder will occur, first along a slowly developing sea breeze as showers closer toward the coast with possibly thunder near the eastern side of   Big Lake Okeewhatever  with outflows and later day storms manifesting as instabiliyt builds with the full onset of the east coast sea breeze inland.  Any strong storms it appears as of this hour will be from near Yeehaw Junction and South into the Glades and western portions of the Broward/Dade Miami Metro areas.

Most activity very isolated except maybe late today. Activity over South Florida could move off toward the SW Coastal regions as indicated but overall shower and storm motion will be extremely slow to indiscernible

WEEKEND: Frontal boundary taking shape from off the coast of Maine South and westward into SE Texas by tomorrow. This boundary will serve as the main focus of rains all along that region especially near Coastal Texas to Southern Alabama and maybe Pensacola, with the brunt of rainfall occurring right near the region of Louisiana impacted heavily by the Hurricane a while back.Rainfall totals could climb toward 8" or more locally if the GFS (Global Forecast System) weather forecasting model verifies . 

Locally, not a big change tomorrow from today for Florida, with only a hint of the boundary getting closer to the Florida Peninsula prior to sunset Sunday.  In that regard, inland thunder but isolated again possible Saturday and more so on Sunday with some coastal showers possible before and at the time immediately preceding onset of the east coast sea breeze (like today). 

Continued warm and even more muggy on Sunday as this summer like pattern becomes more reminiscent of the Dog Days of mid-August rather than post Autumnal Equinox.

Watching that low to form near Central Texas which is forecast to shift east into next week toward Louisiana, never really reaching Florida as it stands now. SW Steering aloft is expected over the state Monday - Wednesday, showers and thunder much more likely during that time frame most areas, esp. Tuesday.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Increasing showers and thunder chances through Wednesday after which time the GFS becomes (as would be expected) less consistent in regard to the evolution of the synoptic scale pattern over the Eastern United States, especially over Florida. 

The only agreed upon resolution within that model's robotic mindset is that cooler weather is no where to be seen into Mid-October if not later than that unless a big shift from the trend occurs. This is a bit unusual, as by now we would have experienced a cool morning in the upper 60Fs at the beaches if not statewide which has yet to materialize. None is yet to be found or foreseen though.

"Beware of False Prophets"  

Big Pattern Change Is Being Projected By the Weekend

Pool Side Blooms Leave Honeysuckle Aroma Many Yards Away

This Morning Near Sunrise

Early Model Imagery shows the potential for a mid level trough to form northeastward from the Gulf toward Early Next Week, after the trough currently (as shown) over the northern states presses on east 

TODAY: Small, light showers near and north of I-4 inland a way could linger off and on as high cloud jet stream cirrus clouds (mainly) continue which began yesterday across much of the peninsula. The jet streak (wind speed max well aloft), might lift out late today before sunset, and if so, we could see significant clearing many areas about or before that time later today. Otherwise, mostly cloudy due to high clouds and some mid clouds  with possibly some showers as noted below.

Meanwhile, little change to the current pattern, although suspect the high clouds could be on the wane by tomorrow as steering aloft is expected to become more westerly; no longer from the moist, source region near the SW Gulf.  The GFS has been showing for several days off and on an inverted like trough to form once the trough over the Great Lakes presses off the east coast over the weekend, allowing the mid-level trough to re-emerge and form a broad, moist swath off 'troughiness" across Central Florida (somewhere) by late weekend into much of next week, much like an 'elevated warm front'. 

The net result would be increasing rain chances especially toward the weekend or so into much of the first week of October. The details are too vague at this point to get into finer details, but for now it appears we could be in for more cloudy/showery, and possibly some thunderstorm like conditions contingent upon where (and if) that boundary materializes. Little change in temperatures are being projected out through 10 days, although as days grow shorter mornings could be a bit cooler and with cloud cover so too the afternoons.

Similar To Yesterday, Slow Moving Showers and Thunder

SUNRISE Cape Canaveral with rain storm back drop, TODAY, Saturday

See Captions above

TODAY: Another short blog post today. Biggest concern for east coasters in Brevard is for an Air Show scheduled. Clouds will be in the picture all day putting a damper on high flying "Bird" viewing, but outside of that winds quite light, crickets chirping, and a moist atmosphere will provide for drifting rain showers and thunderstorms as noted in orange. Note that those orange thunder areas are a first best guess, but are there as shown as well to indicate 'sparse thunder' rather than to signify exactly where it will occur.

SUNDAY: Rain chances might shift further south yet as a mid level impulse passes to our north. This is the theme for the next 10 days..mid level impulses and/or very shallow surface fronts making only benign daily to three day changes to the overall pattern, but no significant wind or rain is shown outside of toward South Florida where some local flooding has occurred this morning and where moisture will be most prominent for several days.

Cape Canaveral Sun Rise Storm Approaches the Coast off the Atlantic

Mainly Showers and Some Isolated Thunder

Soupy and nearly stagnant low to mid level air mass under divergence well aloft should allow ample shower and some thunder formation today. Steering is very slow at 8-12mph (tops) , and with moisture over-loading in that slow motion would expect most storms not to move far from their source before weakening. Early evening cloud cover along much of the east 1/2 of the state is possible due to cloud debris accompanied by spacious sprinkles.

BEYOND: Little change into the weekend with rain chances decreasing some by later Sunday. Could be quite a bit of cloud cover for the Cocoa Beach Air Show, or less than pristine conditions for viewing certain elements of the show.

The earliest autumn since 1896 arrives this Saturday, September 22, at 10:49 A.M. (EDT). At this time, the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from north to south.

Isolated Thunder Far East Central Portions Late Today

TODAY: Frontal boundary has moved little since yesterday and lower level winds have weakened a bit as a reflection of what will eventually happen to the boundary in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, winds just above the deck are only a tad weaker today as opposed to yesterday but I expect they will weaken yet more as the day progresses. This should allow the east coast sea breeze to set up along the east coast, but make very little inland progress, maybe just toward US1 up and down the east coast except further south of West Palm Beach.

The best convergence will be near the front; however(!) - <gotta love ('howevers')>, it appears there is little in the mid-level moisture parameter north of I-4, and south of I-4 toward Melbourne is starting to dry out as well where convergence will not be as formidable for storm formation.

Conservative Approach to Shower and Thunder Coverage today, Possibly overboard
on the Strong Department Since any Strong Storms might be short lived. Strong due to wind gusts

Otherwise, the area that has cleared out since early day cloudiness is all but SE Florida, and with shorter days now in tow, this area might never realize enough destabilization for thunder. Drawn in is a Green zone, but this 'could' end up being thunder late today as well with a better chance of sea breeze collision away from the coast over the Glades. Otherwise, under the supposition there is a least a "side shore type sea breeze and up the intracoastals (but very light)", best convergence and upper level divergence will be along the east coast from Melbourne Beach and North under the drier mid-level air and thus stronger down draft Convective Available Potential Energy. With that said, some brief but strong wind gusts in the 38-50mph range are always possible near and east of I-95 mainly. Storms will move (assuming there are some after 4pm through 7pm) toward the ENE-E, and maybe work a bit ESE near Canaveral along outflows a tad slower than yesterday, but would anticipate that many roads across East Central will have another period of dreary dripping heading toward sunset, if only from showers.  All continget upon storm initiation/location  .

BEYOND: Thursday looks a bit similar to today with slower storm motions and better chances yet still of a sea breeze convergence. The front will sink just maybe a bit further south and continue to become more diffuse/indiscernible during the frontalysis process, while the upper level trough and winds remain positioned for SW flow aloft. Thus, chance of showers and some isolated thunder continues close to the surface to mid-level boundary, mainly Central and North Central .  

Continuing the road ahead, we're seeing only light onshore easterly flow and close to no- flow at the steering level, leading to a drifting inland shower regime with coastal showers also possible from the Cape and south to Miami. No change in temperatures,

Pattern Shift Has Begun - Showers and Thunder More Widespread Today Statewide

Sunrise on Monday, Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Long-awaited (for some) pattern shift has arrived. What is meant by 'pattern shift'? We have been under the influence, intoxicated by easterly flow (onshore east coast winds) for quite some time.  Today herald's a shift in gears to SW flow at the surface and aloft as a frontal boundary draped up and down the entire U.S. East Coast presses eastward across the far Northeast states southward well into the Gulf of Mexico. This could mean a warmer afternoon toward the east coast south of I-4, in particular, and far South Florida with delayed onset of rainfall chances. Rain and thunder is already occurring under the cloud cover shown in the satellite image (below).

Quite a bit of lightning is occurring over North Florida early this Tuesday morning. This area is under the best 'upper level wind dynamics' which weaken the further south one proceeds, especially south of Dead Central Florida toward the Big Lake of Okeechobee. Outflows from activity further north look plausible to move in over the region north of I-4, so that area might be a bit stabilized by "that 'air' " before full heating of the day (which is now earlier due to earlier sunset and later sunrise) can be 'realized', or come to fruition/occurrence. Therefore, watching further south.

TODAY: Some storms could be strong, but brief due to fast motion, toward the East Coast south of I-4. The only reasoning being is that outflow from earlier activity and increasing cloud cover further north might cut off destabilization (as noted in the above caption); whereas, further southward, better heating accompanied by a bit of divergence aloft (not really significant) under SW flow aloft which is quite moist could pile up some heavy rainfall in short periods accompanied by lightning strikes 'afrequent' (under the assumption thunder storms can develop there alongn the 'red zone' shown).  

The off setting 'proverbial fly in the ointment' is that the east coast sea breeze today does not look likely to develop except maybe briefly before the frontal boundary gets further Southeast ward (and slows down significantly tonight presumably) south of Fort Pierce.  Meaning,  1) no chance of low level convergence; and 2) this will not be a summer time/like rain chance regime today where sea breezes or Lake Breezes are the biggest player (except far south).

Latest KSC sounding is showing 23 kts of wind around 2000 ft which will at least try to mix to the surface, so would expect no sea breeze today, possibly unusually breezy along waters and lakes for this time of year from a SW direction. 

The 700mb temperatures are not cold at all, although 500mb temperatures are cool enough that water over-loading aloft could translate in cooler temperatures in to the mid-levels regardless, for gusty winds in and near heavier showers and/or thunderstorms. 

Either way, guidance is split on activity today with the NAM going extremely low key as it has been for three days now in regard to storms and even showers, with the GFS showing a good chance to likely  along the east coast from Melbourne or so, southward..toward Fort Lauderdale. The best chance of an east coast sea breeze is well south of the Lake, so it may be that area will end up with a big storm.

Overall though, the air mass over much of the peninsula south of I-4 is fairly uniform early today, so the driving factors for this afternoon into early - mid evening might be from outflows resulting for earlier activity further north working southward into areas where heating has built up. 

The down fall of this is that outflows without a conflicting sea breeze can act purely to stabilize the atmosphere. Unless a vorticity max comes through, today could be a big bust, but not willing to hedge bets on that one this early in the day. In short, today's post is a 'play it safe just in case post", and speak of the worst case scenario, which is good rainfall and thunder coverage working south after 1pm through early evening. And this stabilizing factor seems more likely near and north of I-4 and less likely along the east coast south of Ponce Inlet.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary is expected to wash out in the next 2-3 days across all of Central Florida in a wide swath, with the upper level trough never clearing the area (nor the true front)...rather, it gradually gets replaced after frontalysis by high pressure from the north without any drying of the atmosphere, followed by a light onshore flow re-asserting itself by later on Thursday or Friday. Either way, showers will remain with temperatures running about where they have been lately, either coming in off the Atlantic or inland showers and thunder.

The earliest autumn since 1896 arrives this Saturday, September 22, at 10:49 A.M. (EDT). At this time, the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from north to south.

 Coupling Up For  the Cape Canaveral Sunrise

   

Isolated Thunderstorms Mainly From 4pm to Dark

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday, September 6, Thunderstorm

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday sums it up, with only a few conditions that point to less favorable for widespread thunder. Morning sounding, as expected, revealed warmer 500 mb temperatures now that the upper low has opened to a trough and is well east of the state. Additionally, steering is a meager 5-8 mph from the NW to WNW and the air becomes sharply drier about 10,000 ft.  up in the atmosphere.Thus, with only weak sea breezes along the east coast with the west coast sea breeze more than likely making greater headway, appears inland activity is possible along the larger Lakes especially Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Pierce and on the South Side of the Lake and the South Side of Orlando eastward toward Seminole County and SW Volusia toward North Brevard potentially.

Outflows from even showers will likely be the next boosting mechanism since air aloft is still cool in the mid-levels which would give convergence along lake and those boundaries something for the atmosphere to play with. 

The issue today will be how much forcing there is upward to propel the column through the mid-drier level to big and great heights (strong thunderstorms). Making no mistake about, any said storm should it develop, will be able to produce frequent lightning, but as of the past two days I have not seen little  beyond the ordinary except toward Lake Okeechobee, and today the playing factors on those days are absent. 

But if so, it would be from Orlando/Sanford/Port St. John to west of Rockledge area and maybe southward toward US 1 to Melbourne. Did not really draw in specifics today as there is too much contingent upon 'additive'  mystery factors coming together to make a true hypothesis; point being rather to establish a framework dialogue describing what we are working with today rather than trying to strain a gnat. 

The other missing factor is upper level vorticity which was present along the east coast the past two days. It could still become a bit cloudy and 'drippy' anywhere along the east coast by late afternoon into the early evening though toward the east coast and inland areas where storms lay to bury and die out.

BEYOND: Above note the RED "L" in the image . This surface low formed in part from remaining energy associated with Isaac's Rotator cup. It is not expected to do a whole lot considering a frontal boundary will be giving it   Das Boot within about 48 hours toward the East to EastNorthEast as it it  can no longer dig its heals, being absorbed in a trough to move through the middle of the country (which will make for some cool mornings indeed - into the 40Fs in some locations in the wee hours). Speaking of which, I noticed Okeechobee City this morning was at 64F degrees before sunrise, and Vero hit a record low of 69F I believe it was yesterday morning. They were right around there before sunrise today as well.

IN any case, the frontal boundary will be sinking in to Central Florida around Monday now, and just exactly how far south the boundary will get is a bit more aloof, but the ECMWF and the previous GFS had it getting to the Florida straits. It might just take a little while longer to get there (if at all). Might even hang up toward Lake Okeechobee. 

But for the weekend, Saturday is not looking like such a big deal as far as rain goes as it appeared it would be, at least not for thunder. Very warm near the east coast though with delayed if any sea breeze north of Brevard. With all the sun and few clouds at the beaches and with Leslie loafing offshore, rip current threat is now reading "HIGH" from the National Weather Service so be advised of 'under toe out' and 'over head burnin'.'

FEW CHANCES FOR SCENES LIKE THIS NEAR THE BEACHES AFTER TODAY
IT APPEARS "SUMMER" STORMS WILL BE SOON DOWN FOR THE COUNT FOR 2012

Better rain chance on Sunday, but really does not appear all too impressive with no chance of a sea breeze and not real good forcing. mainly, rain chance on Sunday is well north of Lake Okeechobee...continuing into Monday Central and South Central.